NFL Week 8 parlay at mega (+709 odds): Commanders pick up a massive road win

The Washington Commanders
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Caleb Wilfinger


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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email
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Week 8 of the NFL season kicked off on Thursday night and we finally got a decent football game. It wasn’t overly competitive all the way down to the wire, but points were scored. Congratulations on that late Buccaneers touchdown, over bettors. Following the Ravens 27-22 win over Tampa Bay, it’s time to turn our attention to the Sunday slate.

Here are the components of Sunday’s mega parlay:

Commanders ML (+126)

Patriots -2.5 (-110)

Bears vs Cowboys under 42.5 (-110)

Parlay odds: +709

For this parlay we are going with one favorite against an alternate spread and two underdogs on the money line. Let’s break down each of the legs one by one.

Commanders ML (+126) over Indianapolis Colts

Last week, one of my favorite plays on the board was Commanders +4.5 against the Packers. That game went about as I thought it would, and now we have another great spot to back Washington. Typically, I would like to back a talented but still mediocre team like the Commanders when they are in the underdog role. I’m not a fan of laying points with backup quarterbacks, and that also plays into why I’m fading the Colts on Sunday.

Sam Ehlinger gets the start for Indianapolis in this matchup and he should be in for a challenge against a Washington defense that can generate pressure. The Colts will likely try to lean on Jonathan Taylor, but at some point Ehlinger will have to make a big-time throw. I’m not convinced he can lead this offense consistently, even at home. On the other side, while Taylor Heinicke isn’t one of the better QBs in the league by any stretch, he still has nearly a season’s worth of starting experience. Pair that with a solid ground game and great weapons on the outside, and Washington should score points here. In a game that should be a low-scoring, one possession affair, I like the value we are getting with a more proven offense and quarterback. I’m backing the Commanders as short underdogs.

Check out all of our complete NFL predictions for Week 8!

New England Patriots -2.5 (-110) over New York Jets

Bill Belichick has won 12 straight against the Jets, including both meeting with Mac Jones starting. Despite the emergence of Bailey Zappe, Jones is still the guy in New England and he should play much better against the Jets than on MNF. The Patriots will be much more buttoned up on defense this week against Zach Wilson than they were against Justin Fields. Another problem for the Jets has been the injuries they’ve dealt with recently. Rookie sensation RB Breece Hall is out for the year with a torn ACL and starting tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker is also now out for the season, as well. That doesn’t bode well for this New York offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Jets’ defense has been playing well thanks to Sauce Gardner’s elite play in the secondary — but I’m not sure that matters much this week. As the saying goes, styles make fights, and I don’t think the Patriots will try to force the ball towards Gardner in 1-on-1 situations. New England would much rather establish the run, grind out the clock and take what the defense gives it in the passing game. After all, this team has some of the most conservative splits of any side in the NFL with the 6th-fewest passing attempts and one of the highest rush rates over expected this season. The Jets’ success rate on defense drops from 5th against the pass to 29th against the run, which could prove huge here. I like New England to end this Jets winning streak on Sunday.

Check out our New England Patriots vs New York Jets predictions

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys under 42.5 (-110)

Whenever the Bears are involved, taking an under is rarely a bad option. Chicago did smash their Week 8 total of 40 with a 47-point game against the Patriots, but that was with Chicago running all over New England’s defense. That should not be the case on Sunday, as the Cowboys defense will generate far more pressure than Fields is used to and will likely force several errant throws. Before Week 7, the Bears had scored 20 or more points only twice; it seems hard to fathom that their offense will have a repeat performance against a defense that is allowing just 14.86 points per game. I’m backing the under in what should be an ugly game.

Check out our Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys predictions

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