Pickswise NBA experts give their best bets for Warriors vs Celtics Game 6

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) talks with Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) after their game at TD Garden.
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Andrew Wilsher

NBA · 1 week ago

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Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer, and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan.

Game 6 of the NBA Finals is on the horizon, and to say there’s a lot on the line for both teams is an understatement. It’s win-or-go-home time for the Celtics, who will have their NBA championship dream crushed should they lose at TD Garden. As for the Warriors, they can secure their 4th championship since 2015 with victory. Given the high stakes of this matchup, we have asked five of Pickswise’s sharpest experts for their best bet of Game 6. That’s five great picks, all in one place!

The likes of 2008 champ Brian Scalabrine and props master JutPicks have given their picks for Game 6. Let’s dive in!

Brian Scalabrine: Celtics team total Over 106.5 points (-110)

I like the over on Boston’s 106.5 team total, but not the over for the whole game (210.5). The Celtics’ style in Game 5 was never going to work. They played the matchup game, trying to pick on and go at Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole. That’s not a sustainable thing to do over the course of 48 minutes or 100-plus possessions. They have to play much faster, more open and more free and my guess is that is exactly what they are going to do in Game 6 — with a lot more aggressiveness and more drive-and-kick action than they did in Game 5.

I would also go with the over on Jayson Tatum’s and Jaylen Brown’s assist numbers (Tatum over 6.5 at a great +125 price and Brown over 3.5) and basically everyone else on the team going over their three-pointers made quota (2.5 for Marcus Smart; 1.5 for Al Horford and Derrick White; 0.5 for Grant Williams). Ball movement has always been paramount for Boston; when the ball is moving, Tatum is driving and kicking and turnovers are being minimized, this team is at its best.

Don’t miss Scal’s full preview and analysis of Game 6 between the Warriors and Celtics

JutPicks: Robert Williams Over 16.5 points + rebounds (+100)

Robert Williams is doing all he can for Boston. He has struggled all postseason long to stay healthy, but his minutes are trending in the right direction. Williams has played more than 25 minutes in his last 3 games, including 30 minutes in Game 5 — in which he scored 10 points and pulled down 8 rebounds. He was a +11 on the floor, making him the only Boston starter to have a positive +/-. In the biggest game of TimeLord’s career, he is going to do all he physically can to be a menace on defense and give Boston stars Tatum and Brown a lob threat.

Read more of JutPicks’ player props analysis for Warriors vs Celtics

Mark Zinno: Jaylen Brown Over 24.5 points (+100)

If the Celtics have any chance of forcing a Game 7, they will need big games from their two best scorers, Tatum and Brown. Brown has been the better, more consistent shooter during these finals. Golden State’s defense will continue to make life difficult for Tatum, and Brown should be able to advantage. He has a lower point total on Thursday and he’s at even money. I’ll back Brown at home, where he has averaged 37% shooting from three in his career.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics

Filip Tomic: Al Horford 8+ rebounds (-140)

Big Al has been the model of consistency for the Celtics this postseason run, averaging 9.1 rebounds per game in 22 played so far. In those 22 games, he’s collected at least 8 boards in 14 of them which comes out to 63%. In more recent games he’s collected at least 8 in 3 of his last 4 and he’s coming off 9 in the Game 5 loss at Chase Center. After allowing 100+ points in 3 consecutive games, the Celtics defense will really have to be on top of their game if they want to send this series back to San Francisco. This being a close-out game, nerves could also play a part which in theory should result in more missed shots and automatically more rebounding opportunities for Horford.

Don’t miss our same game parlay for Warriors vs Celtics Game 6 (+1837 odds!)

Adam Ronis: Marcus Smart over 15.5 points (-110)

Smart has the third-highest usage rate on the Celtics in the series. He has played 39, 40 and 40 minutes over the last 3 games and with the Celtics facing elimination he will be in that range and possibly higher. Smart has scored at least 18 points in 4 of the 5 games, including 20 and 24 in 2 of the last 3. He has taken at least 15 shots from the field in the last 3 games and has hit at least 3 triples on 4 occasions. Coming off a loss in the postseason, Smart has scored 18, 21, 5, 14, 24, 24 and 20 points and has finally looked healthy over the last few games.

Read our first-basket best bet for Game 6 — we cashed a +1000 pick in Game 4!

Pickswise is the home of free NBA picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our NBA parlays and NBA prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

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