Andrew Wilsher
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Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season, and things continue to be interesting with no clear powerhouse in the league. Both the Bills and Eagles suffered losses last week to bring them back down to Earth, and it will be intriguing to see how they respond this Sunday. Despite all the chaos, it’s been a great year for Pickswise NFL handicappers. We are 83-65-3 on spreads this season for a profit of +24 units, while our NFL Best Bets are an impressive 35-22. Now they’re back for more, so let’s dive into 3 of our best bets for NFL Week 11.
Don’t miss any of our NFL picks for Week 11 — we’re up +24 units this season!
Jared Smith: Cowboys -1.5 over Vikings (-110)
There might be a case to be made that the wrong team is favored in this game based on the eye test last week. The Vikings beat arguably the best team in the league on the road, while the Cowboys blew a 14-point lead to a lifeless Packers offense. However, I tend to trust the market in these scenarios, and with all the hype Minnesota is currently getting for their victory in Buffalo it feels like an ideal spot to sell high.
The Vikes are winning close games and have won 7 straight all by 1 score, but I can poke holes in basically every single one of those victories — especially the last 2 games in which they trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter against the Commanders and needed 3 turnovers from Josh Allen to stay in it against Buffalo. Dak Prescott is certainly prone to turnover-worthy plays, including 2 picks last week, but my hope is he cleans that up after a couple of poor decisions in Green Bay.
Analytically, there’s just nothing that jumps off the page about this Minnesota team — so it’s very fair to expect some regression at some point down the stretch in the win-loss column. Finally, Dallas is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 coming off a loss — including 2 wins already this season, one outright as an underdog against Cincinnati in Week 2 and another dominant win as a favorite against the Lions in Week 7.
Be sure to check out our full Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings predictions
Howard Bender: Eagles -6.5 over Colts (-110)
If only Frank Reich could have lasted to Week 11, we could have gotten a classic head coach revenge-game narrative. Unfortunately, the Colts have been a veritable disaster this season and the dismissal of Reich was to be expected. What wasn’t expected was the arrival of Jeff Saturday, the former Colts center and current TV analyst, to the head coaching ranks despite having zero coaching experience at the collegiate or professional level. Still, he led his team to a surprising victory over the Raiders and now takes them into battle against an Eagles team already set to avenge their first loss of the season.
Teams who fire their coach come back the following game and either win outright or cover the spread roughly 60-percent of the time. However, in most cases, the rally-cry lasts a week and inferior teams with inferior game-plans come right back down to Earth. Saturday was a great choice to ignite the fanbase and keep the seats filled at Lucas Oil Stadium. He was a great motivator for the offensive line which helped the resurgence of Jonathan Taylor and Matt Ryan. But with no real system to implement and the hype of his hiring softening, can Saturday really duplicate his team’s Week 10 performance?
Pardon the pun, but the Eagles really laid an egg on Monday night and their run defense was exposed by a Commanders team that forced the run down their throats every step of the way. The Colts will almost certainly try a similar game-plan, but the Eagles are likely to make the necessary adjustments to counter. From there, you can expect them to work over a middling Colts pass defense with the trio of Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The loss of tight end Dallas Goedert will hurt, but probably more in regard to the run than the pass. The Eagles have this one and it will be by more than a touchdown.
Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Eagles vs Indianapolis Colts predictions
Andrew Ortenberg: Raiders +3 over Broncos (-115)
Both teams have first-year head coaches who are candidates to get fired at any time, and both teams have veteran quarterbacks suddenly fighting for their careers. Russell Wilson seems irreparably broken, so I’m backing the Raiders here. Despite a soft schedule and a defense that’s been lights out, the Broncos have only managed to win one of their past six games. Those 5 losses came to the Raiders, Colts, Chargers, Jets and Titans. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Their one win in that span came by just a few points against a struggling Jags team in a London game.
Las Vegas lost an ugly one to the Saints, but other than that all their other losses have been really tight one-score games. Davante Adams has 19 catches for 272 yards and three touchdowns over his past two games, which is obviously a good sign for the offense. Denver could only dream of getting that kind of explosiveness in their passing game right now. I trust Derek Carr a lot more than I trust Wilson right now, and Josh Jacobs is in the midst of the best season of his career while Denver’s ground game has completely collapsed since Javonte Williams went down. I like the Raiders a lot here.
Be sure to check out our full Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos predictions
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