Pickswise NFL experts give their Week 7 predictions and best bets: Too many points for Texans

Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills (10) throws a pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium.
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Andrew Wilsher


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Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season has arrived, and the Pickswise handicapping team is once again heading into the week in red-hot form. Last week, our team of experts went a PERFECT 7-0 on their NFL Best Bets and now we’re back for more! We have 3 of our experts’ best bets for the Week 7 slate, so that’s 3 great bets, all in one place! Without further ado, let’s dive in and check them out.

Read our NFL picks for EVERY Week 7 matchup — we went 11-3 on spreads last week!

Jared Smith: Jaguars -3 over Giants (-110)

This will likely be one of the most contrarian favorites we see all season. The Giants have all the momentum at 5-1 facing a Jags team that has lost 3 in a row after a surprising 2-1 start. In fact, this will be just the 10th time in NFL history that a team with a winning percentage of .800 or higher is an underdog against a team with a winning percentage of .400 or lower at this stage of the season. The prior 9 times it’s happened, the team favored with a significantly worse record won all 9 games and went 8-0-1 against the number. Yikes.

I’ve been asked this week why the sportsbooks keep offering tasty underdog prices on the Giants even though they keep winning outright, and the answer is all in the numbers. All of the metrics I look at every week, many of which get baked into oddsmaker power ratings, tell a story of mediocrity. The offense is 9th in EPA/play which is solid, but Daniel Jones is bottom 5 in air yards and has the fewest 20+ yard completions of any QB in the NFL. Credit Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka for generating just enough misdirection to keep this Giants offense moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.

Overall the Jags are 9th in EPA/play and have the 6th best success rate against the run, however, those numbers have trended down in their last 3 games. If Trevor Lawrence can avoid the big mistake and the Giants offensive line plays slightly below the level we’ve seen through the first 6 games, I think the Jags have the ability to dominate the line of scrimmage on defense and control the tempo in this game.

Be sure to check out our full New York Giants vs Jacksonville Jaguars predictions

Howard Bender: Texans +7 over Raiders (-110)

The keys to this game will be how Josh Jacobs does against a porous Texans run defense and whether or not the Texans can put together enough of an effort through the air against a Raiders pass defense that allows an average of 256 passing yards per game and has already given up 11 passing touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks have put together a 106.7 passer rating, so Davis Mills should be in a good spot to find his receivers downfield. The Texans’ run defense came up big 2 weeks ago against the Jaguars, but will have their work cut out for them with Jacobs.

Knowing how potent the Raiders’ passing attack can be, the Texans are likely to lean heavily on RB Dameon Pierce to slow down the pace of the game and allow that to open up the passing. If the Raiders’ run defense fails to stop him and they are forced to take it to the air, they can be successful, but this game should stay close. After all, the average point differential for both these teams this season has been less than a touchdown.

Be sure to check out our full Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions

Andrew Ortenberg: Lions +7 over Cowboys (-110)

NFC action here as the Dallas Cowboys host the Detroit Lions for what will be Dak Prescott’s first game back under center. Cooper Rush filled in admirably, but the Cowboys have to be grateful to be getting Prescott back. That being said, I’m grabbing the points with the visitors here. Now is the time to buy low on the Lions after they got demolished by the Patriots their last time out. It looks like New England’s defense might be elite, and Detroit has now had the bye week to regroup. Their other three losses were all super close games decided by four points or fewer. They could just as easily be 4-1 right now if a few balls had bounced a different way.

It looks like D’Andre Swift is going to return here, which will be a massive boost for the offense and for Jared Goff. Amon-Ra St. Brown was dealing with an ankle injury before the bye as well and he should be back to 100 percent here. Offensive line is one of the team’s biggest strengths, so if anyone is able to block Dallas’ intimidating defensive front it could be them. When you throw in the fact that Prescott is likely to be a bit rusty after not having played since Week 1, there’s a lot to like about the underdog here. A full touchdown is a lot of points to lay with an offense with as many question marks as Dallas’.

Be sure to check out our full Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys predictions

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