Andrew Ortenberg
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After cashing our same game parlay at a cool 19/1 for Game 3 of the World Series, we’re back with some more for Sunday’s NFL action. FanDuel is now offering same game parlays, which are great because you can stack bets that are highly correlated and therefore present value.
Today we’ve got undefeated vs. undefeated as the Tennessee Titans host the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ve got plenty of thoughts on the side and total for these 5-0 teams, which you can read in our game preview, but right now let’s break down a same game parlay with big odds that has a good chance of getting us to the window.
Ryan Tannehill over 268.5 passing yards (-110)
A.J. Brown over 59.5 receiving yards (-110)
Ben Roethlisberger over 275.5 passing yards (-110)
Steelers alternate spread -6.5 (+220)
Parlay odds: +1600
Getting 16/1 here is pretty great since this is almost exactly how I see this game playing out, with both sides having success through the air but the Steelers emerging victorious.
Ryan Tannehill over 268.5 passing yards (-110)
Everyone is misunderstanding this Steelers defense. Pittsburgh has an elite defensive front that is great at shutting down the run, but their secondary isn’t anything to write home about. Outside of Minkah Fitzpatrick there’s not a ton of talent in the back-half of the defense, and Tannehill should have a good game here.
The fact that the Steelers’ run defense is so good will work in our favor here, since the Titans won’t be able to lean on Derrick Henry as heavily. That means more pass attempts for Tannehill, and more opportunities to cash this over. Tannehill has at least 321 yards in two of his past three games even when they’ve been running the offense through Henry, so I love this prop.
A.J. Brown over 59.5 receiving yards (-110)
If Tannehill has at least 270ish yards, guess who probably had a pretty good day? Brown is the unquestioned top pass-catcher on this team, and he’s looked great in his first two games back from injury. He has at least five catches for at least 58 yards in each of those games, and as I mentioned above I don’t think any of these Pittsburgh cornerbacks can cover him. His target-share is consistent, and 60 yards is a pretty low bar to clear in a game with a total this high.
Ben Roethlisberger over 275.5 passing yards (-110)
Big Ben didn’t have a huge passing day last week since the Steelers got up so big on the Browns early on, and he’ll put up much bigger numbers here. This Titans secondary is quietly one of the worst in the league, and in their last game they gave up 335 yards on only 37 attempts to Deshaun Watson.
Diontae Johnson will return for the Steelers in this one, meaning Roethlisberger will have his full cast of weapons. With Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron, and the emerging young stud Chase Claypool at his disposal, Roethlisberger should have no trouble torching this Tennessee defense.
Steelers alternate spread -6.5 (+220)
This one is far from a lock, but if it turns into somewhat of a shootout like I expect, I think the Steelers are going to win this one relatively comfortably. Obviously the Titans prefer to be a run-first team, but as I mentioned above I don’t see Henry having much success here. Pittsburgh has talked all week about how they’re upset with the Titans for getting their original game postponed due to their COVID-19 outbreak, and I think they come out with a chip on their shoulder here. Tennessee will also be without starting left tackle Taylor Lewan after he tore his ACL last week, which is a recipe for disaster against this Pittsburgh defensive front.
Check out more of our Same Game Parlay picks:
- San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (+1258)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders (+1278)
- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+1710)
Pickswise is the home of free NFL predictions. Check out the latest NFL props and NFL parlays as well as expert underdog predictions and computer picks.
