This Week's Hottest Trends: 5 best trends for betting NFL Week 11
The first couple of months of the NFL season have been thrilling, and Week 11 has just as much potential. We will, of course, have free picks on the side and total for every game that you can view in our NFL picks tab. But right now, we’re talking trends.
Trends can be very important and tell you a lot, or they can be completely insignificant. It’s all about parsing what actually matters, and which ones might reveal something not already being factored into the point spread. Here are our top 5 trends to help you make your Week 11 NFL wagers.
Underdogs are 90-64-1 ATS in games with totals of 46 or lower since start of last season
Underdogs have been doing very well the past couple weeks, so I thought this one was worth highlighting amidst all the talk about ‘dogs. Underdogs have been absolutely lights out in games with lower totals. Since the start of last year, they are 90-64-1 ATS when the total is 46 or lower. Clearly in those games with lower totals points are at a premium, which helps the ‘dogs keep games within the number.
More specifically, ‘dogs of 7 points or fewer in games with totals of 46 or lower are an impressive 73-48 ATS. That’s a cash rate of over 60 percent over a pretty large sample size. This week, there are five teams that are underdogs of a touchdown or less with totals of 46 or less. They are the Saints, Bears, Washington, Jets, and Jaguars.
Teams coming off the bye are 5-11 ATS this season
The bye week can be an advantage in many respects. It can give teams some time to heal up if they’re banged up, or extra time to scheme and add wrinkles to an offense or defense. But it’s not always an advantage, and that’s what we’ve been seeing so far this season. It isn’t a massive sample size, but it’s noteworthy nonetheless. Teams coming off their bye week are just 5-11 ATS this year.
We just saw the Bucs lose outright as -9.5 favorites coming off their bye last week. For Week 11, the Bears, Texans, Bengals, and Giants are the four teams coming off byes. Will the time off continue to make teams rusty, or will this trend start to reverse itself? It will be an important one to monitor.
Tom Brady is 9-0 SU when coming off back to back losses, with all 9 wins coming by double digits
The NFL is all about how you respond to adversity. And Tom Brady has unsurprisingly been great at it throughout his career. You don’t become one of the best quarterbacks of all time but folding when the going gets tough. Losing back to back games isn’t something that’s happened often to Brady, but when it has he’s always rebounded. Brady is a perfect 9-0 straight up when coming off back to back defeats. Perhaps most importantly, all nine of those wins have come by double digits.
That second part is key for this week, since the Buccaneers are -11 favorites over the Giants. Tampa Bay certainly hasn’t been playing their best ball lately, and they have some key injuries. Antonio Brown remains sidelined, and now Vita Vea is going to miss this one with a knee issue — which is a huge blow to the defense. I’m fading this trend and taking the G-Men this week.
Daniel Jones is 11-3 ATS as a road underdog
Now here’s a rebuttal to that Brady trend. Something about Danny Dimes just hits different on the road. Daniel Jones has consistently played better on the highway throughout his career, with an 11-3 record against the spread as a road underdog. Just a couple of weeks ago the Giants were also big road underdogs on Monday Night Football. They covered with relative ease against the Chiefs.
Can New York make it two covers in a row on MNF? I think so. This season Jones is averaging 6.2 yards per attempt at home and 8.3 yards per attempt on the road. He has even been much better as a runner on the road, as well.
Check out John Hyslop’s best underdog plays for Week 11
Vikings are 4-0 ATS as a divisional home underdog under Mike Zimmer
Head coach Mike Zimmer has been great against the spread in general during his time in Minnesota. But he’s been impeccable in this specific instance. As a home underdog against division opponents, Zimmer has never failed to cover. This week the Vikings are a short favorite at home against the Packers.
Minnesota might be 4-5, but it has lost a ton of close games and probably should have a better record. The Vikings also still have one of the best home-field advantages in the league, at a time when home-field advantage is dying. So I wasn’t too surprised to see this trend. The Packers, on the other hand, have covered nine straight times since their Week 1 debacle; so something has to give here.
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