This Week's Hottest Trends: 5 best trends for betting NFL Week 14

Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) celebrates with quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) after scoring a touchdown against the Detroit Lions in the first quarter at Lambeau Field
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Andrew Ortenberg

NFL· 1 month ago

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I'm an editor here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

The first few months of the NFL season have been thrilling, and Week 14 has just as much potential. We will, of course, have free picks on the side and total for every game that you can view in our NFL picks tab. But right now, we’re talking trends.

Trends can be very important and tell you a lot, or they can be completely insignificant. It’s all about parsing what actually matters, and which ones might reveal something not already being factored into the point spread. Here are our top 5 trends to help you make your Week 14 NFL wagers.

Mike Vrabel is 3-6 ATS as favorite of 7+ points

There have been some underwhelming performances from large favorites in recent weeks, and Mike Vrabel hasn’t been great in that role since taking over as head coach of the Titans. Vrabel is just 3-6 against the spread when favorited by a touchdown or more. This week, Tennessee is an 8.5-point favorite over the Jaguars. That number opened as high as 11, before respected money quickly came in on Jacksonville and drove the number down.

The Titans were a big favorite just a couple weeks ago against the Texans, and they lost outright. Might the same thing happen here against another division rival? I’ve got the Jaguars as part of my Week 14 mega parlay that pays out at 26/1 (our NFL mega parlays have cashed in two of the past three weeks), so I certainly hope this trend continues.

Bills are 5-1 ATS as underdogs the last two years

The Bills’ stock has dropped considerably recently. But if you were considering backing them this week against the Buccaneers, there are a couple of trends that might make you optimistic. Buffalo has been one of the best teams in the league the last couple years, and accordingly it hasn’t been an underdog too often. But when the Bills have been, they’ve thrived. They are 5-1 ATS when installed as an underdog the last two seasons.

Earlier this year the Bills clobbered the Chiefs as underdogs on the road. They’ll look to do the same thing here against the other team from last year’s Super Bowl. Buffalo is also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road. A couple trends support Josh Allen and the Bills, but the public is betting hard on Tom Brady and the Bucs. I can’t wait for this one.

The under is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last 7 games

This one is interesting, because the Chiefs have a reputation as an offensive juggernaut. Most people also believe their defense to be bottom-tier. But that hasn’t been the case lately. Kansas City’s defense has actually been carrying the team, causing the under to go 6-1 in their last seven contests. If you had said last year that the Chiefs would be a dominant under team, you probably would’ve been laughed at.

Not anymore. Their one high-flying offense has failed to top 22 points in five of their past six games. The easy under in their Week 13 game against the Broncos helped me cash our mega parlay at +1255, so this run hasn’t been too surprising to me. We’re on the under once again for the Chiefs in their Week 14 matchup with the Raiders.

The Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 primetime games

Some teams — and some players — just seem to thrive under the bright lights. Others falter. It sure looks like Aaron Rodgers has a knack for delivering in front of a national audience. The Packers have gone a remarkable 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 primetime contests. That’s of course notable with Green Bay preparing to host the Bears for Sunday Night Football this week.

Rodgers has been great against the Bears throughout his career, and he’s also been great at covering numbers in big spots lately. The Packers are double-digit favorites, so Rodgers will certainly need to be on his A-game to push this trend to 10-1.

The underdog has covered in 8 of the last 9 Monday Night Football games

Let’s finish things up with another primetime trend. These standalone nationally televised spots are often games where you can throw out the records. It doesn’t matter if a team is 4-8, you don’t have to worry about them showing up with their best effort when they know all eyes are going to be on them. As such, these big games can often create some live ‘dogs. That’s certainly been the case with Monday Night Football lately.

The underdog has covered on MNF in eight of the last nine weeks. That could bode well for the Rams, who are underdogs in a massive NFC West showdown this Monday night against the Cardinals. Unfortunately for head coach Sean McVay’s squad, we don’t expect this trend to continue.

Make sure you check out Pickswise Playbook, our weekly NFL betting show with Chris Rose, Ross Tucker, and Jared Smith as they look to make your next bet better! Out every Thursday.

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