This Week's Hottest Trends: 5 best trends for betting NFL Week 15

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Andrew Ortenberg

NFL· 1 month ago

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I'm an editor here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

We’re approaching the home stretch of the 2021 NFL season, and Week 15 has a lot of potential despite myriad COVID issues. We will, of course, have free picks on the side and total for every game that you can view in our NFL picks tab. But right now, we’re talking trends.

Trends can be very important and tell you a lot, or they can be completely insignificant. It’s all about parsing what actually matters, and which ones might reveal something not already being factored into the point spread. Here are our top 5 trends to help you make your Week 15 NFL wagers.

Favorites and overs strike back

The NFL is always unpredictable. So it’s only fitting that in a year where underdogs and unders have mostly had their way, that favorites and overs both had their best weeks of the entire season in Week 14. Favorites went 11-3 against the spread last week, while the over was an equally impressive 10-3-1. That can’t be good for sportsbooks, as the public usually gravitates toward favorites and the over. Despite all that, underdogs are still on top with a 109-96-1 record for the season. Meanwhile, the under is still 112-93-3 even after the rash of overs last week. It’ll be very interesting to see how the final month of the season goes in this department.

Mike Tomlin is 30-8-1 ATS as an underdog against teams with an equal or better record

This one is just incredible. Shoutout to Chris Raybon at the Action Network for highlighting it. The Steelers have often fared well as underdogs in the Mike Tomlin era, but this trend is just staggering. Tomlin is 30-8-1 ATS when he’s an underdog against a team with an equal or bettor record. This week, the Steelers (6-6-1) have been very slight underdogs at home against a 9-4 Titans team. 30-8-1 is a cash rate of almost 79% across a sample size that isn’t all that small. This would have me pretty nervous if I was on Tennessee this week.

Check out all our NFL Week 15 content in our Ultimate Betting Guide

Large favorites have been cruising

Favorites dominated NFL Week 14, but large favorites have quietly been cruising for a while. During the middle chunk of the season, we saw a lot of big underdogs getting to the window as outright winners. But not lately. In fact, larger favorites have been nearly flawless the past few weeks. Since Week 12, teams favorited by 4.5 points or more are an eye-popping 18-2 ATS. This week there are a ton of big spreads, with 9 games on the board currently having numbers of 4.5 or higher, so this sample size is about to get a lot larger. I’m fascinated to see if this trend continues.

Cardinals are 7-0 ATS on the road

The last time we all saw the Cardinals, they lost outright as a favorite at home on national television to the Rams. But there are a couple of trends to suggest they might bounce back in Week 15. For starters, Arizona is a perfect 7-0 ATS away from home this year. That’s certainly relevant as they travel to Detroit to take on the Lions this week. They’re also a perfect 3-0 ATS when coming off a loss this year. All three times that Kliff Kingsbury’s squad has lost outright this season, they’ve responded with a cover in their next game. Arizona is a massive 2-score favorite over the Lions, so they’ll need to win big to keep these perfect ATS records intact.

The under is 11-1 in the Jaguars’ last 12 games

The Jaguars’ struggles this season have been well documented. But their defense isn’t the unit to blame. It’s been Trevor Lawrence and the offense holding them back, leading to an incredible under run for the Jags. In Jacksonville’s last 12 games, the under has hit 11 times. Will things change in the first game since Urban Meyer was fired? They’ve got an AFC South rivalry matchup against the Texans, and points will likely be at a premium once again.

Houston has also favored the under recently, and they’re starting a rookie quarterback of their own. The under is 6-1 in the Texans’ last 7. This total is low, but we’re still backing these trends and going under here.

Make sure you check out Pickswise Playbook, our weekly NFL betting show with Chris Rose, Ross Tucker, and Jared Smith as they look to make your next bet better! Out every Thursday.

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