Today’s Best NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Friday, 3/8: Can Brook Lopez cook?

Milwaukee Bucks center Brook Lopez (11) shoots against the Atlanta Hawks in the first quarter during game four of the Eastern Conference Finals for the 2021 NBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena
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Ahaan Rungta


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NBA & MLB writer for Pickswise, also specializing in NFL betting and fantasy football. Rungta also works in analytics & betting for PlayerProfiler. For Ahaan Rungta media enquiries, please email
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The NBA is back with another 7 games for Friday’s action and it is time to find more value on the betting market. I’m now 38-28 for a +10.0% ROI on the season with NBA player props and I’ve got another pair of NBA player prop picks Friday, March 8. You can also check out our NBA predictions for our individual game picks.

Tyus Jones (WSH) over 9.5 assists (-110)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

The Washington Wizards are eyeing the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft as they have now lost an astounding 16 games in a row. However, on Friday, they are favored at home against an inconsistent Charlotte Hornets team. If Washington is to stay competitive in this game and have a shot at winning, they need their offense to start converting at a higher rate. In this matchup, it would most likely come from the facilitating of starting point guard Tyus Jones.

Although Jones has stayed under this line in 3 straight games, there is noise as he is averaging 14.7 potential assists in that span and ran into 2 tough matchups for dishing (the Clippers and the Magic). Since the New Year, Jones is averaging 8.8 assists per 30 minutes when Kyle Kuzma plays and now he is getting a likely favorable competitive gamescript in a good matchup. Over their last 15 games, the Hornets are allowing the 6th-most assists per game to point guards and 6th-most field goals made per game at the rim, where Jones finds a majority of his assists. Our projection for Jones in this spot is 11.0 and it is time to buy low in this smash spot on a line that is playable up to a -125 price.

Start the weekend right with our NBA mega parlay at +1343 odds

Brook Lopez (MIL) over 10.5 points (-110)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.

The Milwaukee Bucks face the Los Angeles Lakers with multiple stars from each team questionable. Milwaukee is coming off an embarrassing blowout at the hands of Golden State and it is highly unlikely that they get blown out again; Vegas agrees with this sentiment as this game is nearly a pick ‘em on the spread and the total is high, suggesting pace. That makes this a perfect buy-low spot for Brook Lopez; although Lopez has failed to clear this line in 3 of his last 5 games, the matchups have not been easy as he has run into a few tough matchups and low-usage spots where he took a backseat to the Bucks’ top options. This is a completely different spot — over their last 15 games, the Lakers are a bottom-five defense in the paint, in the midrange, and against above-the-break threes, and are a bottom-10 defense against catch-and-shoot threes. Lopez should be able to dominate in these zones and he has already averaged 11.8 points per 30 minutes in games with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard both active but Khris Middleton out.

Lopez has experience in this league and guarding Anthony Davis since joining the Bucks; he has found over 30 minutes of floor time with very little foul trouble consistently in these prior matchups. Our projection in this spot is 12.5 points. We will, therefore, gladly back the veteran big man to bounce back against his former team and this prop is playable up to a -125 price.

Now read our Bucks vs Lakers Same Game Parlay at +429 odds for tonight’s mega matchup

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