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Following a 13-game slate last night, sports bettors are dealt just a 2-game schedule tonight. But don’t worry; I have 2 player prop bets on deck.
Let’s dive into our best NBA player prop bets for games on Thursday, January 4. Also make sure you also read our NBA predictions for today’s games.
Trayce Jackson-Davis, C, GSW, Under 16.5 points/rebounds (-104)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Many aren’t going to like this play. Perhaps it’s understandable, as Trayce Jackson-Davis has been a spark plug for the Golden State Warriors. The rookie is averaging more than 6 points and 4 rebounds in his last 10 games. But there has been a few outlier games in which Davis had 3 double-doubles during that span. For the most part he has been hit or miss, and tonight I’m banking on him folding against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets — the toughest matchup a rookie center could have in today’s game.
I’m interested in seeing how the Warriors use Jackson. Kevon Looney is still a viable option against Jokic, while the Warriors could also go small with Jonathan Kuminga at the 5. Regardless, Davis will have his hands full on defense while still having to convert on the offensive end to eclipse this line.
Check out our Nuggets vs Warriors prediction
Aaron Gordon, PF, DEN, Under 14.5 points (-115)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
There’s no debate about Aaron Gordon’s importance to this Denver Nuggets squad. He is the glue guy who can defend 90 feet from the basket, throw down a flashy dunk and occasionally knock down a perimeter shot. Respectfully, we’re hoping for the worst version of Gordon tonight on the offensive end.
Gordon has been highly efficient in his last 10 games. It’s to the point where we have to see how long he can keep this streak up. He is shooting 65% from the field during that span — mind-blowing numbers for a guy shooting 53% from the season. Luckily for us, Gordon shoots much worse on the road. Away from Denver, Gordon is shooting below 50%, while at home he is making a 59% clip of his attempts. Even during this crazy shooting run that Gordon is on, Gordon is still under in half the games. He is under this prop for the season in 11 of 16 games on the road. This game reads to be a ton of Jamal Murray isolation and even Michael Porter Jr. forking up shots from the outside.
For the +EV people, the price we are getting on BetMGM compared to other books is great value. FanDuel has this same prop listed at -128, while Pinnacle joins them also at -128.
