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After a stat-stuffing day by multiple stars last night, I expect much of the same for this 7-game slate. Let’s dive into our top NBA player prop bets for games on Thursday, December 14, but make sure you also read our NBA predictions for tonight’s games.
Dereck Lively II, C, DAL, Under 17.5 points + rebounds (-128)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Dereck Lively II has been a crucial piece for this Dallas Mavericks team. In his first 21 games of his career, Lively is averaging 9 points, 8 rebounds per game, and he is atop the league in field-goal percentage. The only thing stopping him is a dominant defensive frontcourt. Well, that’s what he has in front of him tonight against Rudy Gobert and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves allow the 2nd-fewest points per game to opposing centers and also the fewest rebounds. Gobert is now +115 to win Defensive Player of the Year and is a big reason why the Timberwolves have the best defensive rating in the league. It’s a daunting matchup for Lively, who has stayed under this prop in 13 of 21 games. The injury tag for the Mavericks is extensive, which will give Livley more usage, but this matchup is as brutal as it can get for a rookie. Back the under on FanDuel, where they are offering this prop at a point + rebound higher than the competition.
Check out our full Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks predictions
Rudy Gobert, C, MIN, Over 26.5 points + rebounds (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I don’t love giving too much exposure to 1 game, but this player prop bet is speaking to me. I’m expecting Rudy Gobert to fully dominate Dereck Lively II tonight — a big reason I have 2 units on this contest. The Mavericks allow the 5th-most points in the paint per game and have had trouble stopping opposing centers from rebounding the basketball. They allow the 6th-most rebounds per game to that position.
The Mavericks will hoist up a ton of 3-pointers. That’s what will keep them in this game. They shoot the most 3s per game of any team. That leaves Gobert in the paint, fighting with Lively to scarf down rebounds. He has surpassed this line in 5 of his last 6 outings and in 10 of 17 when playing at least 30 minutes. With 1.5-point underdogs on the road and Anthony Edwards banged up, this game should be a great fight.
Don’t miss our NBA mega parlay for tonight’s action
