Today's Best NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Wednesday 11/1: Mike Conley and Minnesota show up for Denver Nuggets
Wednesday night in the NBA has given us 13 games to sort through and a few quality matchups caught my eye. The new-look Los Angeles Clippers are playing a back-to-back against the Lakers for the battle of LA, and all eyes will be on James Harden’s minutes. The Kings and Warriors is turning into one of our favorite regular season matchups over the last 2 years and in the early window, the Brooklyn Nets take on the Miami Heat. We have NBA picks for every game tonight, but for now, let’s get into my favorite player prop bets of tonight’s slate. Through the first week of the season, I am 10-8 for +5.21U, so make sure you’re following me on X @PropHolliday for all of my plays!
Herb Jones (NOP) over 10.5 points (+100)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Jones is normally thought of as a defensive stalwart, but I like this spot playing a Thunder team that will require him to be on the floor for well over 30 minutes tonight. As a starter, Jones is averaging 9.9 ppg on 30.2 minutes, or 0.32 points per minute. For Jones, I expect him to bounce between SGA and Giddey defensively, so he should see plenty of time on the floor. On the offensive side of the ball, he may luck out and draw SGA or Giddey, who are ranked 91st and 142nd in defensive win shares and bottom 40 in defensive efficiency amongst starters. Last season when playing over 30 minutes against OKC, he logged 12 and 15 points despite shooting 33% from the field. 1U
Find out our +140 pick in our New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions
Mike Conley (MIN) over 18.5 PRA (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I’ll be honest, I was eyeing his under until I really dove into the number on this. He’s averaging 0.75 PRA per minute as a member of the Timberwolves (27 games) meaning this number becomes in jeopardy if he dips below 26 minutes. He’s played a minimum of 28 in every game this season and this game specifically matters to Minnesota. They feel they were the best team to face Denver last season and as the only team to give them a loss in the postseason, they may have a point (I don’t agree). For Conley, I like his matchup against Murray, who he went off against for 19 points in the postseason at home. As an 18-year veteran it’s tough to find motivation this early in the season, but Denver will garner that extra attention. I like this for 1U.
We’ve got an LA Clippers vs LA Lakers Same Game Parlay at +1030 odds
Parlay: Cade Cunningham 20+ points & Jrue Holiday 4+ rebounds (+136)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I was going to play Cunningham’s points straight up, but I like this alternative better. Cade has hit this in 2 of 4 games this season, but a steady 35+ minutes per game in 3 of 4 is a great sign for his workload (one game with foul trouble). He’s leading the team in minutes (33.8), points (21) and FGA (18.5) by a wide margin. The Trail Blazers have looked less-than-average defensively outside of one game against Toronto, but that says more about the Raptors than it does Portland. Cade should feast against Shaedon Sharpe and a Blazer team allowing 54.5 points in the paint per game.
For Jrue, this one’s easier to explain: he leads the Celtics with 14 rebound chances per game and the most backcourt minutes at 32.6. Indiana is 20th overall in opponent rebounds per game and his rebounding figures last season against the Pacers were 8, 11, 9 and 11. 1U
After a +1412 winner yesterday, don’t miss tonight’s NBA mega parlay