Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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NBA Wednesday is upon us and we have a 10-game slate to digest. A few interesting matchups stand out to me as far as viewing goes: Timberwolves vs 76ers, Heat vs Magic, Clippers vs Mavericks and Celtics vs Kings. The only team on a back-to-back tonight is the Celtics and a few key injuries to mention: Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Keyonte George, Jordan Clarkson, Nicholas Batum, Markelle Fultz, Dereck Lively, Josh Green, Max Kleber, Kyrie Irving are all out. Now that that’s taken care of, let’s dive into my favorite NBA player prop bets for tonight’s slate, and make sure you also read our expert NBA picks.
Collin Sexton (UTA) over 22.5 points (-105)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Yes, you can get this line at 21.5 for -140 on other books, but I don’t see the value in laying that if I’m projecting him significantly higher. Sexton has hit this in 4 straight games as a starter and is averaging 0.83 points per minute as a starter compared to 0.66 as a bench player. His median minutes output as a starter is 32.25, which multiplied by 0.83 = 26.76 points projected.
Clarkson and Keyonte George are out tonight, so Sexton is back in the lineup. The focus will be on Lauri Markkanen returning to Cleveland, but Sexton is playing his first game against Cleveland since the Mitchell trade. You can say that the revenge angle is played out, but Sexton comes off as the type of player that this matters to. We have a small sample size on Sexton, but the projection is too big to ignore. Let’s roll.
Be sure to check out our full Utah Jazz vs Cleveland Cavaliers predictions
Joel Embiid (PHI) over 5.5 assists (+105)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Embiid has hit this line in 6 of 7 games without Nicholas Batum playing and I believe the reason behind this is that Embiid is then surrounded by more shooters (Covington, House, Springer). Tonight he gets the Timberwolves, who are massive in the frontcourt (Gobert, Towns, Reed) and are actually poor defending post-up players. So Embiid should feast early and when they bring the double team, as he’s done an outstanding job at finding the open man this season. This has hit in 15 of 23 games (65%) and we’re getting it at plus-money odds. It’s tough to use last year’s figures against Minnesota as a benchmark since Harden was in the lineup, but Embiid has made a significant leap in his passing game since Harden’s departure, and the reigning MVP did hit this in 1 of 2 games against the Timberwolves last season.
Be sure to check out our full Minnesota Timberwolves vs Philadelphia 76ers predictions
