UFC 259 predictions, picks, best bets and four-fight parlay

Dominick Cruz bleeding at UFC 207
Photo of Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew Lowrimore

UFC· 7 months ago

Show Bio

Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

We are back in Las Vegas this week for UFC 259. Our event this week will feature a Light Heavyweight title fight for the Main Event. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.

Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +579. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 259 predictions for the full 15-fight card.

Uros Medic Money Line (-177)

Uros Medic comes into this fight with an MMA record of 6-0. He will make his official UFC debut here after earning his contract at a Dana White’s Contender Series event back in November of 2020. He won this fight by KO/TKO in the first round. Medic is now averaging 14.55 significant strikes per minute and lands them with a striking accuracy of 88 percent. He is absorbing just 0.91 strikes and has a striking defense of 83 percent.

The only way I can bet this fight would be a win for Medic. He has looked like the real deal so far, and has won every single fight by finish. Even knowing Medic has a perfect finish rate, I am going to just back this money line.

Sean Brady Money Line (-215)

Sean Brady comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Christian Aguilera by submission back in August of 2020. Brady also has very solid striking, averaging 5.44 significant strikes with a striking accuracy of 55 percent. He does absorb 4.35 strikes per minute, but his 61 percent striking defense helps him to avoid damage and thus far, he has never lost. His grappling is starting to look elite, averaging 3.26 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He also averages 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. Brady’s takedown accuracy is 57 percent and his takedown defense is 100 percent.

Brady has been flawless so far and I do not see anything changing just yet. Jake Matthews has already shown he struggles when stepping up in competition, so I will back Brady to get a big win here and continue his quest for a title shot.

Carlos Ulberg Money Line (-250)

Carlos Ulberg will make his official UFC debut after winning by KO in a Dana White Contender Series event back in November of 2020. He is now 5-0 in MMA and is averaging 4.92 significant strikes per minute. He also has a striking accuracy of 45 percent. Ulberg is averaging 3.44 strikes per minute, but his 66 percent striking defense is going to help him avoid the power shots from Kennedy Nzechukwu.

I think the long layoff for Nzechukwu is going to play a huge factor here and will lead to Ulberg dominating this fight. His ability to avoid damage looks to be the difference, so backing Ulberg to win will be my play.

Dominick Cruz Money Line (+110)

Dominick Cruz comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-3. He is 12-3 in the UFC, but is coming off two straight losses. One of those losses came back in 2016 and then after a near four-year layoff, he lost to Henry Cejudo back in May of 2020. Cruz is averaging 3.52 significant strikes per minute, but his accuracy is lacking at 32 percent. He does only absorb 2.28 strikes and has a striking defense of 73 percent. So, even though he lost to Cejudo by TKO/KO, it could be argued that the referee called the fight a bit early. Cruz will look more so to grappling, where he averages 3.05 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown defense of 48 percent and a takedown defense of 83 percent.

There is no doubt that Kenney is improving with every fight. However, now that Cruz is fully back after his layoff, I think he will be able to get back in the win column. He has a bit better defense, which I believe will help him pull off the small upset.

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$125

Bet $5, Win $125 in CASH if a TD is scored on Halloween SNF!

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make a deposit

Wager $5 that a TD will be scored in the Cowboys/Vikings Week 8 matchup

If either team scores a TD, you win $125 CASH!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on the NFL, Get $200!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $5+ on the Money Line of any NFL game

If your team wins, you will be issued a $200 free bet bonus!

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Unibet

$50

Bet $5, Win $50 if Your Team Makes a 3-Pointer!

Sign up for a new account with Unibet and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any NBA team to win their next game

If your team hits a 3-pointer during the game, you win a bonus $50 - regardless of the game's outcome!

Max bet $5. 21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Unibet.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on the NBA, Get $200!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $5+ on the Money Line of any NBA Basketball game

If your team wins, you will be issued a $200 free bet bonus!

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $20+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+

Bet $20 on your team to win Money Line (NFL or NCAAF)

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

Caesars Sportsbook

$5,000

Get a $5,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $5,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose - up to $5,000!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing

$200

$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign Up Bonus with TwinSpires Racebook!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code BET200

Make a deposit and start wagering on horse racing

Earn $100 in bonus cash for every $400 wagered!

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.