UFC 279, Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz picks, predictions and best bets: Rodriguez continues his strong UFC start

An overall, general view of the octagon at UFC Fight Night, Sunday, December 8, 2019, in Washington, D.C.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 3 weeks ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

UFC 279 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a welterweight fight between Tony Ferguson and Nate Diaz as the Main Event.

We are sharing our UFC 279 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 279 predictions for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.

UFC 279 Main Card Best Bets

Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz ML (+125)

Nate Diaz comes into this fight with an MMA record of 21-13. He is 19-12 in the UFC, most recently losing to Leon Edwards by unanimous decision back in June of 2021. Diaz is averaging 4.51 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. He is absorbing 3.73 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is decent as well, averaging 1.10 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 30% and his takedown defense is 41%.

Tony Ferguson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 26-7. He is 15-5 in the UFC, most recently losing to Michael Chandler by KO/TKO back in May of this year. Ferguson is averaging 5.12 significant strikes per minute and has a striking of 45%. He is absorbing 3.81 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%.

Diaz and Ferguson will now go head-to-head after Dana White switched up 3 fights on Friday. Both Diaz and Ferguson have struggled recently, but knowing that this could be the last fight for Diaz in the UFC, backing him will be the play.

Daniel Rodriguez ML (-150) over Li Jingliang

Daniel Rodriguez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-2. He is 7-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Kevin Lee by unanimous decision back in August of 2021. Rodriguez is averaging 8.06 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 5.38 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. He is a decent grappler, averaging 0.84 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Rodriguez has a takedown accuracy of 55% and a takedown defense of 76%.

Rodriguez is 3-1 in his last 4 UFC and has the significant edge in striking. He also has absorbed much more damage, but he has never lost by being finished, therefore backing Rodriguez to win looks to be worth a play.

Make sure you also read our UFC 279 four-fight parlay (+513 odds!)

UFC 279 Preliminary Best Bet

Chris Barnett vs Jake Collier – Fight to go the Distance – No (-140)

Jake Collier is far too heavy of a favorite to back on the money line given the fact that this is a heavyweight fight and can end with a single punch. Chris Barnett has seen 21 of his 30 fights end inside the distance, while Collier has seen 13 of his 20 fights end inside the distance as well. This fight is most likely to end by KO/TKO but because Collier has a couple submission wins, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.

At Pickswise we provide free expert MMA picks and MMA Predictions for all of the top UFC Cards. Our UFC Predictions and UFC Picks include a pick and analysis for all of the prelims and main card fights.

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