Matthew Lowrimore
UFC
Show Bio
UFC 285 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones and Ciryl Gane as the Main Event and a women’s flyweight title fight between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso as the Co-Main Event.
Here is our favorite parlay for this card, with odds of +473 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 285 predictions for the full 14-fight card.
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Jon Jones ML over Ciryl Gane (-170)
Jon Jones comes into this fight with an MMA record of 26-1. He is 20-1 in the UFC with his last fight having been more than 3 years ago. Jones won that fight by unanimous decision against Dominick Reyes. Jones is averaging 4.30 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 2.22 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. Jones also has solid grappling ability, averaging 1.85 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Jones’ takedown accuracy is 44% and his takedown defense is 95%.
Despite this being the return to the UFC for JJ, he is listed as a moderate favorite. Gane has been excellent in the UFC so far, but his only loss came against Francis Ngannou and a case could be made that Ngannou has been as dominant as Jones in the UFC. Jones has the edge because he has the superior grappling, so for that reason, backing Jones to win in his UFC return will be the play.
Shavkat Rakhmonov Win by Finish over Geoff Neal (-150)
Shavkat Rakhmonov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-0. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Neil Magny by submission back in June of 2022. Rakhmonov is averaging 2.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 1.39 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. Rakhmonov is also very good on the ground, averaging 2.31 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.70 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Rakhmonov is a heavy favorite in this fight, which likely makes backing his money line too risky. He has won all 16 of his career fights by finish, including all 4 of his UFC fights. Geoff Neal has only ever lost 2 times by finish, but because Rakhmonov has a perfect finish rate, backing him to do so here looks to be the best option.
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Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner – Fight to go the Distance – No (-200)
Mateusz Gamrot is a huge favorite in this fight, but Jalin Turner’s finishing ability should give him a chance of pulling off the upset. Turner has seen his last 5 fights in the UFC end inside the distance, while 16 of his 18 career fights have done the same. Gamrot has seen 3 of his last 5 UFC fights end inside the distance, as well, therefore backing this fight also looks to be worth a play.
Dricus Du Plessis ML over Derek Brunson (-225)
Dricus Du Plessis comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-2. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently Darren Till by submission back in December of 2022. Du Plessis is averaging 6.62 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 3.73 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is elite, averaging 3.18 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. DDP’s takedown accuracy is 47%, and he has a takedown defense of 50%.
Du Plessis is the heavy favorite in this fight, but looks to be the right side based on the fact that he has been dominant in the UFC. He has also won 17 of his 18 career fights by finish, while Derek Brunson has 6 losses by finish. Du Plessis has the superior striking and submission ability, therefore backing him to win will be the play.
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