Matthew Lowrimore
UFC
Show Bio
UFC 285 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones and Ciryl Gane as the Main Event and a women’s flyweight title fight between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso as the Co-Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC 285 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 285 predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
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UFC 285 Main Card best bet
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso – Over 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Valentina Shevchenko is the overwhelming favorite in this fight, which likely makes her money line unplayable. She has seen 4 of her last 6 UFC fights go over 2.5 rounds, and 5 of Alexa Grasso’s last 6 fights have done the same. Grasso has never lost by KO/TKO and has only lost by submission once, therefore backing this fight to go over 2.5 rounds will be the play as it looks likely that Grasso can hold up until the back half of this fight.
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UFC 285 Preliminary Card best bets
Ian Garry Win by KO/TKO over Song Kenan (-135)
Ian Garry comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Gabe Green by unanimous decision back in July of 2022. Garry is averaging 5.95 significant strikes per minute and he has a striking accuracy of 56%. He is absorbing 4.34 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%.
Garry is far too big of a favorite to back on the money line, but he has won the majority of his fights by finish. Specifically, he has won 5 times by KO/TKO, the method Song Kenan has lost by 3 times. Because of that, picking Garry to win this fight by KO/TKO will be the play.
Farid Basharat Win by Decision over Da’Mon Blackshear (-115)
Farid Basharat comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-0. He is 1-0 in the UFC, though this will be his UFC debut. His lone UFC fight was in the Dana White Contender Series, where he beat Allan Begosso by unanimous decision back in September of 2022. Basharat is averaging 7.73 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 65%. Basharat is absorbing 1.80 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling has also been strong through 1 fight, averaging 3.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 75%, and has not been taken down in the UFC.
Basharat is the overwhelming favorite, so while he looks to be the right side, backing his moneyline is a little too risky. Majority of his career wins have been by finish, but Da’Mon Blackshear has never lost by finish, therefore backing Basharat to win by decision will be the play.
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Make sure you also read our UFC 285 four-fight parlay (+473 odds!)
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