Matthew Lowrimore
UFC
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UFC 286 takes place on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London, England. This card features a welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC 286 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 286 predictions for picks on every Main Card and Preliminary Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
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UFC 286 Preliminary Card best bets
Chris Duncan ML over Omar Morales (-115)
Chris Duncan comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-1. He is 1-1 in the UFC, though this will be his official UFC debut. His most recent fight came against Charlie Campbell, who he beat by KO/TKO in the Dana White Contender Series back in August of 2022. Duncan is averaging 7.10 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. He is absorbing 7.94 strikes and has a striking defense of 41%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 4.18 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 40% and he has not had to defend a takedown in the UFC so far.
This is one of more evenly matched fights on the card, with Morales as a small favorite. However, given that Morales is 1-3 in his last 4 fights and Duncan has better striking and grappling, backing him to win his UFC debut will be the play.
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Ludovit Klein Win by Finish over Jai Herbert (+100)
Ludovit Klein comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-4. He is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Mason Jones by unanimous decision back in July of 2022. Klein is averaging 3.51 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. He is absorbing 3.87 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%. His grappling is decent, averaging 1.02 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 33% and a takedown defense of 87%.
Klein is a heavy favorite in this fight, so his moneyline looks to be too risky. He has however, won 16 of his 19 career fights by finish and Herbert has 4 losses by finish. For that reason, backing Klein to also win this fight by finish will be the play.
Juliana Miller Win by Finish over Veronica Hardy (-110)
Juliana Miller comes into this fight with an MMA record of 4-1, most recently beating Brogan Walker by KO/TKO back in August of 2022. Miller is averaging 3.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 63%. She is absorbing 2.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 37%. Her grappling has also been elite, averaging 4.30 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same time period. Her takedown accuracy is 100% and she has not had to defend a takedown yet in the UFC.
Miller is far too big of a favorite to back on the moneyline; however, she does look to be the right play. Milller has won all 4 of her career fights by finish, while Hardy already has 2 losses by finish, both in the UFC. Because Miller has a perfect finish rate, and Hardy has been very inconsistent in the UFC, backing Miller to win by finish will be the play.
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Make sure you also read our UFC 286 four-fight parlay (+436 odds!)
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