Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 286 takes place on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London, England. This card features a welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite parlay for this card, with odds of +436 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 286 predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
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Kamaru Usman ML over Leon Edwards (-245)
Kamaru Usman comes into this fight with an MMA record of 20-2. He is 15-1 in the UFC, most recently losing his welterweight title to Leon Edwards by KO/TKO back in August of 2022. Usman is averaging 4.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 2.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 3.01 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 48% and his takedown defense is 97%.
Despite losing the most recent fight to Edwards, Usman is still the heavy favorite. Having lost his welterweight title could, however, make backing Usman worth a play though. He was dominating Edwards all the way up until the fifth round, and should make a statement that he is the best welterweight fighter in the UFC. With Usman having the superior striking and grappling, backing him to win his title back will be the play.
Casey O’Neill ML over Jennifer Maia (-170)
Casey O’Neill comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-0. She is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Roxanne Modafferi by split decision back in February of 2022. O’Neill is averaging 8.65 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. She is absorbing 4.68 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. Her grappling is also very good, averaging 2.59 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same time period. Her takedown accuracy is 44% and her takedown defense is 60%.
O’Neill is a moderate sized favorite, which is deserving because she has been perfect in the UFC. She looks ready to make a claim for a title fight, and has superior striking and grappling. For that reason, backing O’Neill to win and remain unbeaten will be the play.
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Jafel Filho vs Muhammad Mokaev – Fight to go the Distance – No (-190)
Muhammad Mokaev is one of the biggest favorites on the card, so backing his moneyline is not really an option. He has seen 6 of his 9 career fights end inside the distance, which includes 3 of his last 4 UFC fights. Jafal Filho has seen 14 of his 16 career fights end inside the distance, which includes his last 9 fights in a row. Because both fighters have high finish rates, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be the play.
Lerone Murphy ML over Gabriel Santos (-175)
Lerone Murphy comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-0-1. He is 3-0-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Makwan Amirkhani by KO/TKO back in October of 2021. Murphy is averaging 2.58 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. He is absorbing 1.90 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.76 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 33% and his takedown defense is 36%.
Murphy is the favorite here likely because he has far more experience in the UFC. Because of that experience, even if his last fight was in 2021, backing Murphy looks to the best option.
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