UFC Fight Night 186 predictions, picks, best bets and four-fight parlay

Feb 22, 2020; Auckland, New Zealand; Angela Hill is declared the winner by decision against Loma Lookboonmee during UFC Fight Night Auckland at Spark Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore


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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

We are back in Las Vegas this week for UFC Fight Night 186. Our event this week will feature a Heavyweight fight for the Main Event. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.

Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +620. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 186 predictions for the full 11-fight card.

Ronnie Lawrence Money Line (-164)

Ronnie Lawrence enters this fight with an MMA record of 6-1. Where Lawrence is going to look to dominate is on the mat. He is averaging 12.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of 70 percent. In the same sense, he has a takedown defense of 100 percent.

Vince Cachero is coming off his UFC debut loss to Jamall Emmers, a fight he lost by unanimous decision. He did not land a single takedown in his debut, and only has a takedown defense of 28 percent. He was taken down five times by Emmers, so I do not have much faith that he will improve here. The lack of takedown defense for Cachero is going to cause too many problems here, so I will back Lawrence to win.

Sabina Mazo Money Line (-215)

Sabina Mazo comes into this fight 3-1 in the UFC. Mazo is averaging 7.14 significant strikes per minute, landing them with an accuracy of 46 percent. She is absorbing 4.07 strikes per minute, but has a striking defense of 62 percent. Her grappling has also been strong, averaging 1.02 takedowns per every 15 minutes. More importantly, she has a takedown accuracy of 100 percent and a takedown defense of 83 percent.

Alexis Davis has lost three fights in a row. Also, her last fight was back in July of 2019, so the layoff could be an issue here to say the least. The concerning part is that her takedown accuracy is 33 percent, while she defends takedowns 32 percent of the time. Davis looks to be on the tail end of her career and I do not believe she will be able to keep up with the young Mazo.

Ramazan Kuramagomedov Money Line (-102)

Ramazan Kuramagomedov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-0. While this will be his first official UFC fight, he did fight in a Dana White Contender Series event back in July of 2019. At least in that one fight, he showed a ton of striking potential. Kuramagomedov is averaging 11.67 significant strikes per minute, and is landing them 67 percent of the time.

Alex Oliveira is starting to become very inconsistent. He lost his last fight by submission back in October of 2020 and has lost four of his last six fights. This is the second fight in a row that Oliveira is facing an undefeated fighter. He obviously did not fare well back in October and I do not see him being any better here. The striking from Kuramagomedov looks too good right now, so I will back him to win this fight.

Angela Hill Win by Decision (-185)

Angela Hill is averaging 5.70 significant strikes per minute, landing them 49 percent of the time. She is absorbing 5.16 strikes and has a striking defense of 63 percent. She has a takedown accuracy of 37 percent, while defending takedowns 77 percent of the time. Every single UFC fight for Yoder has gone the distance. In the same sense, 12 of Hill’s 16 UFC fights have done the same. Though because Yoder took this fight on short notice, I will back Hill by decision to get the job done.

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