UFC Fight Night 194 predictions: Four-fight parlay (+699 odds)

UFC Fight Night 194 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a women’s strawweight division fight as the main event.

Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC Fight Night 194 that pays at odds of +699. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 194 predictions for the full 10-fight card.

Mackenzie Dern Money Line (-190) vs Marina Rodriguez

Mackenzie Dern comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1. She is 6-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Nina Nunes by submission back in April of this year. She is averaging 3.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38%. Dern is absorbing 3.57 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. Her grappling is also not the best, averaging 0.51 takedowns per every 15 minutes. However, she is still dangerous on the ground, averaging 2.3 submission attempts during the same time period. Dern has a takedown accuracy of 10%, but has not been able to defend any takedowns so far in the UFC.

Dern looks to be a decent play here with her ability to turn a ground fight in her favor. She might not land the takedowns, but her scrambling gives her an edge. For that reason, backing Dern will be the play.

Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden – Fight to go the Distance – No (-200)

Both guys have seen plenty of their fights end inside the distance. This includes the last 5 fights for Randy Brown. Overall, Brown has seen 14 of his 17 fights end inside the distance, while 15 of 24 fights have done the same for Jared Gooden. Because of the high finish rate and because both fighters are vulnerable, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.

Sabina Mazo Money Line (-165) vs Mariya Agapova

Sabina Mazo comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-2. She is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Alexis Davis by unanimous decision back in February of this year. She is averaging 6.56 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. Mazo is absorbing 3.91 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. Her grappling is also decent, averaging 0.81 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 80% and her takedown defense is 66%.

Mariya Agapova has had quite a long layoff, so backing her feels a bit risky here. She also does not defend takedowns well. Mazo also has better striking, so backing a Mazo win looks to be worth a play.

Charles Rosa vs Damon Jackson – Fight to go the Distance – No (+120)

Charles Rosa comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-5. He is 5-5 in the UFC, most recently beating Justin Jaynes by split decision back in June of this year. He is averaging 3.14 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 36%. He is absorbing 3.69 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%. Rosa also has decent grappling, averaging 1.78 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 35% and his takedown defense is 37%.

Jackson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-4-1. He is 1-2-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Ilia Topuria by TKO/KO back in December of 2020. He is averaging 2.46 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 35%. He is absorbing 3.63 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.14 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.7 submission attempts during the same time period. Jackson has a takedown accuracy of 20% and a takedown defense of 35%.

Both fighters love to aim for a finish with 17 of Jackson’s 18 wins coming inside the distance and 21 of his 22 fights overall. Rosa has also seen 12 of his 19 fights end inside the distance, so backing this fight to do the same will be the play.