Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC Fight Night 206 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a women’s bantamweight fight as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 206 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 206 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
Main card best bets
Holly Holm vs Ketlen Vieira – Fight to end by unanimous decision (-125)
The oddsmakers have Holly Holm as a huge favorite, but seeing that she has not fought in the UFC since 2020, backing her is a risky play. Holm has seen 4 of her last 5 fight end by unanimous decision and Ketlen Vieira has seen her last 3 fights end by unanimous decision as well. Because Holm could be rusty here and because she has only lost by finish twice in her career and has not won by finish since 2017, backing this fight to end by unanimous decision will be the play.
Michel Pereira ML (-135) over Santiago Ponzinibbio
Michel Pereira comes into this fight with an MMA record of 27-11. He is 5-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Andre Fialho by unanimous decision back in January of this year. Pereira is averaging 4.71 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 3.24 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.84 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Pereira has a takedown accuracy of 55% and a takedown defense of 100%.
Both guys have had nice starts to their UFC careers, but Pereira has more consistent as of recently. He has won 4 fights in a row, while Santiago Ponzinibbio is 2-2 over his last 4 UFC fights. Pereira’s grappling is a major difference in this fight, so backing him to win his 5th in row will be the play.
Polyana Viana ML (+115) over Tabatha Ricci
Polyana Viana comes into this fight 12-4 in MMA and 3-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Mallory Martin by submission back in February of 2021. Viana is averaging 3.71 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. She is absorbing 3.01 strikes, has a striking defense of 54%. Viana appears to be more comfortable on the ground, averaging 1.12 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.4 submission attempts during the same time period. She has a takedown accuracy of 33%, and a takedown defense of 50%.
This fight is fairly even with not much separating either fighter. Viana has won all of her fights by finish (4 by KO/TKO and 8 by submission), while Tabatha Ricci has 3 wins by finish and 1 loss by finish as well. Ricci having never defended a takedown in the UFC could be a concern here with how lethal Viana has proven to be on the ground. For that reason, backing Viana to win her 3rd fight in a row will be the play.
Make sure you also read our UFC Fight Night 206 four-fight parlay (+550 odds)
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