UFC Fight Night 221: Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili picks, predictions and best bets: Dvalishvili extends his winning streak

Sep 25, 2021; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Merab Dvalishvili celebrates his TKO victory against Marlon Moraes during UFC 266 at T-Mobile Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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UFC Fight Night 221 takes place on Saturday at the The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a bantamweight fight between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili as the Main Event.

We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 221 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 221 predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.

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UFC Fight Night 221 Main Card best bets

Merab Dvalishvili ML over Petr Yan (+220)

Merab Dvalishvili comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-4. He is 8-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Jose Aldo by unanimous decision in August of 2022. Dvalishvili is averaging 4.21 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. He is absorbing 2.31 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling is elite, averaging 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 78%.

Petr Yan is a heavy favorite in this fight, but his recent form could be a concern. He has lost 3 of his last 4 UFC fights, while Dvalishvili has won his last 8 UFC fights. Dvalishvili has the superior grappling, while also having a slight edge in striking. Because these fighters have recently been going in opposite directions, backing Dvalishvili to pull off the upset will be the play.

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Vitor Petrino ML over Anton Turkalj (-115)

Vitor Petrino comes into this fight with an MMA record of 7-0. He is 1-0 in the UFC, though this will be his official UFC debut. Petrino is averaging 4.88 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 2.09 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. He has not yet shown any grappling ability, but does have a takedown defense of 67%.

This looks to be one of the more evenly matched fights on the card with Petrino as a very small favorite. This is his UFC debut, but he does have the superior striking and has defended takedowns at a high rate. For that reason, backing Petrino to win in his debut will be the play.

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Make sure you also read our UFC Fight Night 221 four-fight parlay (+500 odds!)

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