Matthew Lowrimore
UFC Fight Night 221 takes place on Saturday at the The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a bantamweight fight between Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili Main Event.
Here is our favorite parlay for this card, with odds of +500 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 221 predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
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Alexander Volkov vs Alexandr Romanov – Fight to go the distance – No (-200)
Alexandr Romanov is a moderate favorite in this fight, but Alexander Volkov’s finishing ability will likely give him a solid chance in this fight. One of the more likely results would be for this fight to end inside the distance, seeing that Volkov has seen 31 of his 45 career fights end this way and Romanov has seen 14 of his 16 fights also end this way. For that reason, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be the play.
Nikita Krylov ML over Ryan Spann (-170)
Nikita Krylov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 29-9. He is 10-7 in the UFC, most recently beating Volkan Oezdemir by unanimous decision back in October of 2022. Krylov is averaging 4.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 2.50 strikes, and his striking defense is 44%. Krylov is a decent grappler, averaging 2.11 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 35% and a takedown defense of 53%.
Krylov is a medium sized favorite, but still looks to be the right side in this fight. He has the better striking and grappling and has won by finish 27 times in his career, compared to Ryan Spann who has won 18 times by finish. They both have won their last 2 fights in a row, but Krylov will be the play because he has a much better finish rate.
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Said Nurmagomedov ML over Jonathan Martinez (-250)
Said Nurmagomedov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-2. He is 6-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Saidyokub Kakhramonov by submission back in December of 2022. Nurmagomedov is averaging 3.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. He is absorbing 2.05 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling is not as good, averaging just 0.52 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 9% and his takedown defense is 63%.
Nurmagomedov is a heavy favorite, but still looks to be the right side. He has struggled to land takedowns, but still has 5 submission wins, showing that he can handle himself on the ground. Nurmagomedov has the better striking defense and has never lost by finish, therefore backing him to win will be the play.
Sedriques Dumas Win by finish over Josh Fremd (-125)
Sedriques Dumas comes into this fight with an MMA record of 7-0. He is averaging 2.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 66%. Dumas is absorbing 1.28 strikes and has a striking defense of 66%. Through 1 Contender Series fight, he has been an elite grappler, averaging 19.15 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 19.1 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 100% and has not needed to defend a takedown yet.
So far Dumas has proven to have a solid finish rate. He has won 6 of his 7 career fights by finish, including a submission win in his Contender Series fight. Josh Fremd has just 2 losses by finish, but did lose by submission in his most recent fight. For that reason, backing Dumas to win by finish will be the play.
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