UFC on ESPN 12 predictions: Best two-fight parlay pays +100

Dustin Poirier (blue gloves) reacts against Khabib Nurmagomedov (red gloves) during UFC 242 at The Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 2 years ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

Here is our best two-fight parlay that pays at odds of +100, and don’t forget to check out our best bets for UFC on ESPN 12.

Odds correct as of Thursday via DraftKings Sportsbook. Get a sign up bonus up to $1,000 when you use this link to create a new account or see more offers and sportsbook reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Luis Peña (-265)

The featured preliminary at UFC on ESPN 12 will see Luis “Violent Boss Ross” Peña take on Khama “The Death Star” Worthy. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Peña comes in as the massive favorite, posting a record of 8-2 in his MMA career and 4-2 in the UFC. He won his last fight by unanimous decision against Steve Garcia, which came back in February of this year. Peña lands an average of 3.32 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 46%. He also has shown the ability to fight on the ground, landing an average of 1 takedown per every 15 minutes, while also attempting 1 submission.

On the other side is Khama Worthy, who made an impressive debut to his UFC career, beating Devonte Smith by TKO as a massive underdog. The most concerning factor is he is very prone to getting knocked out. He has lost by this method 5 times in his career, which brings his chin into question. Peña may not look for the KO every time, but he can wear an opponent down with his kicks and therefore, I believe he is the more balanced fighter. I look for him to get another big win here and start to make some noise in a packed Lightweight division.

Dustin Poirier (-220)

The main event at UFC on ESPN 12 will see Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier take on Dan “The Hangman” Hooker. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Poirier is the overwhelming favorite and rightly so as he is the #3 contender in the division. He comes in with a career MMA record of 25-6. His UFC record is 17-5, so to say he is a veteran is an understatement. Poirier did lose his last fight back in September of 2019, but this was against the title holder, Khabib Nurmagomedov. Before that loss, he had won 4 fights in a row, including wins over Anthony Pettis (Submission), Justin Gaethje (TKO) and Max Holloway (Unanimous Decision).

Poirier is an excellent striker, landing an average of 5.51 significant strikes per minute. He can take fights to the ground as well where he is averaging 1.55 takedowns per every 15 minutes. On top of that, Poirier attempts 1.18 submissions per every 15 minutes, so clearly he is comfortable with a ground based fight. While Dan Hooker has made a solid case for a title fight he absorbs too many strikes per minute, which could ultimately be the difference. I believe Poirier has more ways to win this fight and I will take him to win even at this steep of a price.

Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC expert picks for Saturday, as well.

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