UFC on ESPN 12 predictions: Best two-fight parlay pays +100

Dustin Poirier (blue gloves) reacts against Khabib Nurmagomedov (red gloves) during UFC 242 at The Arena.
Photo of Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew Lowrimore

UFC· 1 year ago

Show Bio

Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

Here is our best two-fight parlay that pays at odds of +100, and don’t forget to check out our best bets for UFC on ESPN 12.

Odds correct as of Thursday via DraftKings Sportsbook. Get a sign up bonus up to $1,000 when you use this link to create a new account or see more offers and sportsbook reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Luis Peña (-265)

The featured preliminary at UFC on ESPN 12 will see Luis “Violent Boss Ross” Peña take on Khama “The Death Star” Worthy. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Peña comes in as the massive favorite, posting a record of 8-2 in his MMA career and 4-2 in the UFC. He won his last fight by unanimous decision against Steve Garcia, which came back in February of this year. Peña lands an average of 3.32 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy of 46%. He also has shown the ability to fight on the ground, landing an average of 1 takedown per every 15 minutes, while also attempting 1 submission.

On the other side is Khama Worthy, who made an impressive debut to his UFC career, beating Devonte Smith by TKO as a massive underdog. The most concerning factor is he is very prone to getting knocked out. He has lost by this method 5 times in his career, which brings his chin into question. Peña may not look for the KO every time, but he can wear an opponent down with his kicks and therefore, I believe he is the more balanced fighter. I look for him to get another big win here and start to make some noise in a packed Lightweight division.

Dustin Poirier (-220)

The main event at UFC on ESPN 12 will see Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier take on Dan “The Hangman” Hooker. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Poirier is the overwhelming favorite and rightly so as he is the #3 contender in the division. He comes in with a career MMA record of 25-6. His UFC record is 17-5, so to say he is a veteran is an understatement. Poirier did lose his last fight back in September of 2019, but this was against the title holder, Khabib Nurmagomedov. Before that loss, he had won 4 fights in a row, including wins over Anthony Pettis (Submission), Justin Gaethje (TKO) and Max Holloway (Unanimous Decision).

Poirier is an excellent striker, landing an average of 5.51 significant strikes per minute. He can take fights to the ground as well where he is averaging 1.55 takedowns per every 15 minutes. On top of that, Poirier attempts 1.18 submissions per every 15 minutes, so clearly he is comfortable with a ground based fight. While Dan Hooker has made a solid case for a title fight he absorbs too many strikes per minute, which could ultimately be the difference. I believe Poirier has more ways to win this fight and I will take him to win even at this steep of a price.

Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC expert picks for Saturday, as well.

See All
DraftKings

$200

Bet $1 on the NFL, NBA or NHL & Get $100!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Place a $1+ bet on any NFL, MLB, or NHL game

If either team registers a point (NFL), hit (MLB), or goal (NHL) you will receive a BONUS $100!

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $20+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+

Bet $20 on your team to win Money Line (NFL or NCAAF)

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

Caesars Sportsbook

$5,000

Get a $5,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $5,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose - up to $5,000!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing

$200

$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign Up Bonus with TwinSpires Racebook!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code BET200

Make a deposit and start wagering on horse racing

Earn $100 in bonus cash for every $400 wagered!

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.