UFC on ESPN 21 predictions, picks, best bets and four-fight parlay

Mar 7, 2020; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Max Griffin (blue gloves) before the match against Alex Oliveira (red gloves) during UFC 248 at T-Mobile Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore


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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

We are back in Las Vegas this week for UFC on ESPN 21. Our event this week will feature a Middleweight fight for the Main Event. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.

Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +673. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 21 predictions for the full 12-fight card.

Montel Jackson vs. Jesse Strader Over 1.5 Rounds (-112)

Even though I like Montel Jackson to win this fight, there is no way I would ever lay his money line price. Actually, all but one of his UFC fights have managed to go over 1.5 rounds, so that is where I am looking here. With Jesse Strader being new to the UFC, I believe he will want to ease into this fight and not do anything rash right away. Jackson can also control this fight on the ground and grind out a few rounds before getting the win.

Grant Dawson vs. Leonardo Santos Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-140)

Both of these guys have been great to watch in the UFC so far. They both will be looking for a submission, but they also both have never lost by this method. Because of that, I believe we are going to get a great fight, but one that will be a stalemate. As long as Dawson can avoid the early knockout, I like him to slowly break down Santos and for this fight to go the distance.

Max Griffin Money Line (-200)

Max Griffin comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-8. He is 4-6 in the UFC, but won his most recent fight in November of 2020. This was a win by TKO/KO against Ramiz Brahimaj. Griffin is averaging 4.08 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 48 percent. He is absorbing 3.91 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 56 percent. His grappling is solid, averaging 1.73 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He also has a takedown accuracy of 53 percent and a takedown defense of 66 percent.

As much as I would like to take Kenan, his long layoff and lack of takedown defense is going to keep me away from his side. While Griffin can be inconsistent, his grappling looks to be the difference here and the reason why I would look his way.

Cheyanne Buys Win by Decision (-170)

Cheyanne Buys comes into this fight with an MMA record of 5-1. She will make her official UFC debut after earning a contract back in August of 2020. Buys is averaging 6.13 significant strikes per minute and landing them with an accuracy of 55 percent. She also is only absorbing 2.33 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 66 percent. We have not seen much grappling ability so far, but Buys has a takedown defense of 100 percent through that first fight on the Contender Series.

Buys dominated her Contender Series fight, making me believe she is going to get the win here as well. I am not interested in laying a huge price, so backing Buys to win by decision will be our play.

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