Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 39 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a lightweight fight as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC on ESPN 39 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 39 predictions page for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC on ESPN 39 Preliminary Card Best Bets
Cody Brundage ML (+115) over Tresean Gore
Cody Brundage comes into this fight with an MMA record of 7-2. He is 1-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Dalcha Lungiambula by submission back in March of this year. Brundage is averaging 2.42 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. He is absorbing 2.75 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.42 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 25% and his takedown defense is 68%.
Tresean Gore is actually a small favorite in this fight and does have a small advantage in terms of grappling volume on top of his ability to defend takedowns. However, this is only over 1 UFC fight, whereas Brundage has had 3 UFC fights. Brundage does not have the better striking, but Gore’s inability to avoid damage in his UFC debut could be the difference in this fight. Brundage still has a total of 6 wins by finish in his career, therefore backing him to pull off the small upset will be the play.
Kennedy Nzechukwu ML (-135) over Karl Roberson
Kennedy Nzechukwu comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-3. He is 5-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Nicolae Negumereanu by split decision back in March of this year. Nzechukwu is averaging 5.13 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. He is absorbing 4.90 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling will likely be a non-factor, though Nzechukwu has a takedown defense of 80%.
This fight is very evenly matched and both guys look to have a path to victory. Karl Roberson has, however, lost his last 3 UFC fights in a row, so because Nzechukwu has the better striking and superior takedown defense, backing him looks to be worth a play.
Make sure you also read our UFC on ESPN 39 four-fight parlay!
Ronnie Lawrence ML (-130) over Saidyokub Kakhramnov
Ronnie Lawrence comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-1. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Mana Martinez by unanimous decision back in February of this year. Lawrence is averaging 3.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 1.62 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. Grappling is where Lawrence has been elite, averaging 9.15 takedowns per every 15 minutes. In just 3 UFC fights, he has landed 26 takedowns with an accuracy of 78%. On top of that, he is defending takedowns 100% of the time.
Both guys have been showing elite grappling ability, but Lawrence looks to have the advantage because of how accurate he has been. He also has defended every takedown attempted against him and has never lost by submission. On top of that, Lawrence also has the better striking, so for that reason, backing him to win this fight will be the play.
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