UFC on ESPN 39: Rafael Dos Anjos vs Rafael Fiziev four-fight parlay for 7/9 (+500 odds)

An overall, general view of the octagon at UFC Fight Night, Sunday, December 8, 2019, in Washington, D.C.
Photo of Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 1 month ago

Show Bio

Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

UFC on ESPN 39 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card will feature a lightweight fight as the Main Event.

Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this event, with odds of +500 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 39 predictions for the full 12-fight card.

Let’s get into our parlay for Saturday’s card.

UFC on ESPN 39 parlay (+500 odds)

Rafael Fiziev ML (-210) over Rafael Dos Anjos

Rafael Fiziev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1. He is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Brad Riddell by KO/TKO back in December of 2021. Fiziev is averaging 5.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 5.57 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling is not quite as strong, averaging 0.48 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50%, and his takedown defense is 95%.

Fiziev is a big favorite here and for good reason as he has won 5 UFC fights in a row. Rafael Dos Anjos does have the edge in grappling, but Fiziev has a much higher striking volume and defends takedown nearly perfectly, therefore backing him to continue his win streak looks to be worth a play.

Caio Borralho ML (-215) over Armen Petrosyan

Caio Borralho comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Gadzhi Omargadzhiev by unanimous decision back in April of this year. Borralho is averaging 3.66 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 64%. He is absorbing 1.70 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. His grappling has also been solid so far, averaging 1.96 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 80% and his takedown defense is 75%.

Armen Petrosyan has the better striking in this fight, but Borralho is the more balanced fighter. His grappling could be the difference in this fight as well, especially with Petrosyan having already had struggles defending takedowns in his previous UFC fights. For that reason, Borralho looks to be worth a play.

Don’t miss our UFC on ESPN 39 best bets!

Jared Vanderaa vs Chase Sherman – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-150)

Jared Vanderaa is actually a large favorite in this fight, but he probably doesn’t deserve to be. He has lost 3 fights in a row, and Chase Sherman has lost 4 fights in a row. Sherman has won 14 times in his career by KO/TKO out of his 15 wins, while having lost by the same method 4 times. Vanderaa has won 7 times by KO/TKO and has lost 3 times by the same method. Neither guy has very good grappling either, therefore backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be the play.

Michael Johnson vs Jamie Mullarkey – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-150)

Jamie Mullarkey is a big favorite in this fight, but the fact that he has lost his last 3 fights in a row is a concern. All 3 of these losses were by KO/TKO, but he also has 10 wins by this method as well. Michael Johnson mainly has lost by submission, a method of victory that Mullarkey does not achieve very often. Johnson has 9 wins by KO/TKO in his career, so backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be the play.

Parlay these four UFC on ESPN 39 predictions for a potential payout at +500 odds!

Pickswise is the home of free UFC Predictions and UFC Picks. Our expert UFC handicappers bring you the best bets from the top UFC and UFC Fight Night cards.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.