UFC on ESPN 40: Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill four-fight parlay (+319 odds) - Hill pushes for a title shot

Jun 12, 2021; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Jamahal Hill brings down Paul Craig during UFC 263 at Gila River Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 5 days ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

UFC on ESPN 40 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a light heavyweight fight between Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill as the Main Event.

We are sharing our UFC on ESPN 40 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 40 predictions for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.

UFC on ESPN 40 parlay (+319 odds)

Jamahal Hill ML (-320) over Thiago Santos

Jamahal Hill comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-1. He is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Johnny Walker by KO/TKO back in February of this year. Hill is averaging 7.06 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 3.71 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%.

Hill is a huge favorite in this fight, which is warranted seeing as he has been knocking out his competition left and right. He has superior striking and his takedown defense has been strong enough to suggest he can keep this fight standing, especially knowing that Thiago Santos’ grappling is not world-class by any means. Santos is 1-4 in his last 5 UFC fights, therefore backing Hill will be the play.

Sam Alvey vs Michal Oleksiejczuk: Fight to go the Distance – No (-175)

Michal Oleksiejczuk is one of the biggest favorites on this card and for good reason. Sam Alvey has lost 3 fights in a row and 7 of his last 8. He has not even won a fight since 2018, so it is clear that he is struggling. Of Alvey’s 51 career fights, 28 of them have ended inside the distance. As for Oleksiejczuk, 16 of his 21 career fights have ended inside the distance, including 5 of his last 7 fights. Four of Alvey’s last 7 losses have been by finish, therefore backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.

Don’t miss our UFC on ESPN 40 best bets!

Bryan Battle ML (-280) over Takashi Sato

Bryan Battle comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-1. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Tresean Gore by unanimous decision back in February of this year. Battle is averaging 7.10 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56%. He is absorbing 4.58 strikes and has a striking defense of 40%. His grappling has been good so far, averaging 1.35 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 22% and his takedown defense is 55%.

Battle is a heavy favorite here, which looks to be warranted given the fact that he has superior striking. He also has won by submission 4 times in his career, while Takashi Sato has lost by submission 3 times in his career. Sato has also lost 2 fights in a row, while Battle is undefeated so far in the UFC. For that reason, backing Battle to remain undefeated in the UFC will be the play.

Jason Witt vs Josh Quinlan: Fight to go the Distance – No (-200)

Josh Quinlan is a heavy favorite, but having not fought in the UFC makes him a risky play. He has won all 5 of his career fights by finish though, while Jason Witt has seen 20 of his 26 fights end inside the distance. For that reason, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be the play.

Parlay these four UFC on ESPN 40 predictions for a potential payout at +319 odds!

Pickswise is the home of free UFC Predictions and UFC Picks. Our expert UFC handicappers bring you the best bets from the top UFC and UFC Fight Night cards.

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