UFC predictions, picks and best bets for UFC 262

Jan 22, 2021; Abu Dhabi, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES; Michael Chandler poses on the scale during the UFC 257 weigh-in at Etihad Arena on UFC Fight Island on January 22, 2021 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

We are in Houston, Texas this week at the Toyota Center for UFC 262. This weeks card will feature a Lightweight title fight as the Main Event.

We’ll share our UFC 262 best bets here but head over to our main UFC 262 predictions homepage if you want picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.

UFC 262 Best Bets

Main Card

Michael Chandler Money Line (+115)

Michael Chandler comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-5. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating a very good Dan Hooker by TKO/KO back in January of this year. Chandler is averaging 4.29 significant strikes per every 15 minutes and has a striking accuracy of 49 percent. He is absorbing 3.76 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52 percent. Like his opponent, Chandler is also very good at grappling. He is averaging 2.37 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 41 percent, but a takedown defense of 80 percent.

Both of these fighters have been excellent, especially Charles Oliveira with his win streak. However, I cannot look past how Chandler absolutely dominated Hooker in his last fight. He is already showing some insane power as well. I also believe Chandler will be able to keep from being taken down often, so I will back him to be crowned the Lightweight champion.

Viviane Araujo Money Line (+120)

Viviane Araujo comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-2. She is 4-1 in the UFC, winning her most recent fight against Roxanne Modafferi. This came back in January of this year and was a win by unanimous decision. Araujo is averaging 4.97 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48 percent. She is absorbing 4.60 strikes and has a striking defense of 60 percent. Her grappling is much more effective, averaging 2.33 takedowns per every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 64 percent and a takedown defense of 94 percent. Araujo may absorb more strikes than her opponent, but she looks to be better in almost every way. Especially in terms of grappling, which looks to be one of the biggest differences here. Because of this grappling ability, I will be backing her to win this fight as a small underdog.

Preliminary Card

Tucker Lutz Money Line (-120)

Tucker Lutz comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1. He is 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming in Dana White Contender Series Events. Lutz is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49 percent. He is absorbing 2.80 strikes per minute and has striking defense of 47 percent. His grappling has also been solid so far, averaging 2.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 57 percent and his takedown defense is 81 percent. I realize Lutz will be stepping up in competition here, but Kevin Aguilar has been too inconsistent. His grappling has not been great and even with a good takedown defense, I like Lutz to control this fight and to come away with another win.

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