Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC Fight Night 201 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card features a light heavyweight fight as the main event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 201 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 201 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC Fight Night 201 main card best bets
Kyle Daukaus/Jamie Pickett – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-135)
Kyle Daukaus comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-2. He is 2-2 in the UFC, most recently having his fight against Kevin Holland declared a no contest. Daukaus is averaging 3.19 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 2.61 strikes and has a striking defense of 40%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.88 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.9 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 27% and his takedown defense is 85%.
Pickett comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-6. He is 3-4 in the UFC, most recently beating Joseph Holmes by unanimous decision in January. Pickett is averaging 3.02 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 4.17 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.68 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 68%.
Other than the fight that was declared a no contest, Daukaus has seen all 4 of his UFC fights go the distance. Pickett has seen 4 of his 7 UFC fights go the distance as well, so backing this one to go the full 3 rounds is the play.
Parker Porter/Alan Baudot – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-135)
With this being a heavyweight fight, pretty much anything could happen and in a split-second. Alan Baudot has seen 9 of his 10 career fights end by TKO/KO, including both of his UFC losses. His chin is certainly a concern, while Parker Porter is also vulnerable to being knocked out. About half of Porter’s wins have come by TKO/KO and half of his losses have come by TKO/KO, so backing this fight to end by TKO/KO is the best play.
UFC Fight Night 201 preliminary card best bets
Jonathan Pearce – Win by finish (-135) vs Christian Rodriguez
Jonathan Pearce comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-4. He is 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Omar Morales by submission in September 2021. He is averaging 6.79 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. Pearce is absorbing 5.23 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling has been elite so far in the UFC, averaging 7.17 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 57% and a takedown defense of 75%.
Pearce is a huge favorite and looks to be the right side against a guy making his UFC debut. The money line is a bit too high, though, so backing him to finish this fight looks to be a solid play, especially because 10 of his 11 career wins have come by a finish.
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