Buccaneers vs Bears Same Game Parlay: Best SGP Picks

Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season continues with Sunday Night Football between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago. Both teams are rolling along nicely heading into this showdown, albeit with very different overall records. The Bucs are 3-5 but have won three of their last four games, while the Bears are 6-2 and have won five of their last six. 

Here is my SGP for Thursday’s primetime festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also be sure to check out our full Bucs vs Bears predictions. 

Bears -6.5 (-105) 

D'Andre Swift Over 2.5 receptions (-148) 

D’Andre Swift to score a touchdown (-195) 

Baker Mayfield Over 211.5 passing yards (-114) 

Parlay odds: +783

Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Chicago running back D’Andre Swift having a big night would obviously work well with a Bears win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield to throw for his fair share of yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the three legs.  

Bears -6.5 (-105) 

Chicago is looking like the best team in football, especially after what it did to defending Super Bowl champion Seattle last week. Playing on the road on Monday Night Football, the Bears rolled 34-17 behind three touchdowns from Swift and mistake-free football by Caleb Williams. And let’s not forget about the defense. Chicago forked up two first-round picks to acquire DT Jeffrey Simmons from Tennessee, but early returns suggest that he is worth everything. In his Bears debut, Simmons recorded one sack, one QB hit, one pass deflected and six total tackles – three solo and two for a loss. His impact on the defense as a whole went far beyond those numbers, too. If that unit can continue to impress, the sky is the limit for head coach Ben Johnson’s squad – because we already know how dynamic the offense is pretty much week after week. Meanwhile, the Bucs have recovered from their disastrous start but have not posted any impressive wins. The lone team they have defeated that is currently inside the playoff cut line is the Panthers – and that’s only because they also play in the atrocious NFC South. I don’t see Tampa Bay keeping this one within a touchdown on the road. 

D'Andre Swift Over 2.5 receptions (-148) and to score a touchdown (-195) 

There is no denying that the Bucs’ run defense is stellar. They are #1 in the NFL in that department, allowing just 80.0 yards per game on the ground. Opponents’ 3.6 yards per carry are the fourth fewest in the league. As such, it would be no surprise if the Bears use quick hits to RBs out of the backfield as an extension of their running game. Tampa Bay has conceded 39 receptions to opposing running backs this season; only seven teams have given up more. Swift has made four catches in three of his last four games, and he also had five receptions in Week 2 against Minnesota. As for the former Georgia standout’s chances of finding the endzone, he has scored 10 touchdowns in 2026 – including at least one in four consecutive contests. Swift has scored multiple TDs three times, including three on a pair of occasions. As the odds suggests, just one on Sunday night should be a safe bet. 

Baker Mayfield Over 211.5 passing yards (-114) 

This actually works quite nicely with the Bears covering. After all, a negative game script for the Bucs – which is anticipated – calls for them to be playing from behind and therefore being forced to hit the airwaves. Moreover, I expect Mayfield to be playing with a chip on his shoulder (when doesn’t he play like that?!?!) after completing a grand total of zero passes during last week’s rain-soaked game against Atlanta. Chicago ranks #3 league wide against the run, but its pass defense is not good at all. The Bears are surrendering 219.0 yards per game through the air and opponents’ 8.2 yards per attempt are third most in the NFL. When Mayfield has attempted more than 11 passes in a game this year, he has exceeded this 211.5 quote two of three times.