NFL Week 9 Anytime TD Scorers: Best Picks for Sunday's Games
The NFL regular season is more than half over at this point, but there’s still plenty of action left for football fans and bettors. The playoff race is starting to take shape, and by now, we have a firm grasp on most teams’ tendencies, which should help us in the player props market.
Ahead of the Week 9 action, I’ve put together my three favorite NFL touchdown bets for you to tail or fade. I’ve had a nice run going over the last few weeks, cashing in on a +650, a +285 and a +280, and I hope to keep that momentum going into this week. Let’s get into the picks, and don’t forget our NFL predictions for tips and analysis on every side and total this week and beyond.
NFL Week 9 Touchdown Scorer: Blake Corum (LAR) +115
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to +100.
Blake Corum’s role isn’t just to spell Kyren Williams, Corum is a legitimate piece to the Rams offense this year, garnering double-digit touches in five games, including in three straight. He’s been highly efficient in that span, averaging more than 6.5 yards per attempt and more than eight yards per reception, which has led to a touchdown in four straight contests after opening the season with no touchdowns in the first four weeks.
This is an inviting matchup for the Rams rushing attack. They are road favorites against the Commanders, who really struggle against the run. The counting metrics may not bear that out because they have faced the fourth-lowest amount of rush attempts to RBs this season, but the advanced metrics do. Per SumerSports, Washington ranks bottom-three in the league in EPA per rush and rush success allowed, and those struggles are not only present in the red zone (30th, 24th) but when the Commanders are trailing as well, which I expect throughout this game. In fact, the Commanders are the league’s least efficient run defense when trailing, ranking 32nd in both EPA per rush and rush success when the Commanders are behind. Washington’s injuries across the defensive front certainly won’t make things any easier against this Rams ground game. With the better price tag compared to Williams, Corum is the preferred move for me.
Get our experts' NFL best bets for the Week 9 slate
NFL Week 9 Touchdown Scorer: Greg Dulcich (MIA) +330
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +280.
If you’ve read any of my NFL articles over the last month and some change, you’d know I’ve been picking on the Lions defense with tight ends for most of the season, so why stop now? After T.J. Hockenson’s four-catch, 58-yard, one-touchdown performance last week, which cashed our +280 ticket, Detroit’s defense is still far and away the worst team in the league against tight ends. They’ve surrendered the most targets to tight ends by 10, the most receptions by six, the most yards by 63 and the most touchdowns by three (11), and that’s all in just seven games – some teams have played eight or even nine times if you’re the Ravens.
What happened in the past doesn’t mean it’s always going to happen in the future, but it would be absolutely silly to jump off this train right now. Sure, Greg Dulcich doesn’t have a touchdown this season, but what better opponent to find the end zone against? It’s not like Dulcich isn’t part of the Dolphins offense; he very much is. Malik Willis has thrown his way 11 times in the last two weeks, and Dulcich caught nine of those passes for almost 130 yards.
Check out our Lions vs Dolphins prediction, including a five-star best bet
NFL Week 9 Touchdown Scorer: Malik Nabers (NYG) +190
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +150.
It’s rough for the Eagles right now. They’re battered and bruised with injuries across the board, and they are a shell of what they used to be defensively. To make matters worse, Philadelphia hasn’t had their bye yet, so they’re running on fumes. This will be their third straight divisional game, and they’re in the middle of a six-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off a bye as the division leaders and the only team above .500 in the NFC East.
J.J. McCarthy seems to be settling in nicely on his new team – he actually looked like a competent quarterback in New York’s win over the Texans ahead of the bye, and the week off only helps when it comes to playbook knowledge and wide-receiver chemistry. That’s where Malik Nabers comes in. Nabers doesn’t have an injury designation this week, which means he should continue being the unquestioned target leader on this team. In fact, he’s garnered over 40 targets in his last three games. Not all of those were with McCarthy under center, but it just goes to show New York’s game plan. Last week, McCarthy threw his way nine times; Nabers caught seven of those targets for 111 yards, including a 42-yard reception. At this price, against a defense that has yielded 10 wide-receiver touchdowns in eight games (third-most behind Arizona and Buffalo) and ranks bottom-10 in pass efficiency, betting Nabers to score is almost a no-brainer.
Get our Giants vs Eagles prediction for this NFC East rivalry game
