NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Top Picks for Sunday's Games
Week 5 of the NFL season kicked off with an absolutely disastrous home loss by the Dallas Cowboys to the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What additional drama is in store for Sunday? We have a 13-game menu, starting at 9:30 am ET in London with Eagles vs Jaguars.
With that in mind, let's get into our NFL best bets for Week 5, while you can find out our expert NFL picks for every game this week and throughout the entire season.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 over Miami Dolphins (-120)
Odds widely available at time of publishing.
The Dolphins have started the season full of holes, suffering disappointing loss after disappointing loss, and have even lost one of their best and most explosive players in De'Von Achane. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 2-2, with only eight points separating them from a perfect 4-0 start. These two teams couldn't be more different. Cincinnati has quietly played much better football than its record suggests. The two losses came by a combined eight points, and Joe Burrow continues to operate one of the league's most dangerous passing attacks. With Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins stretching defenses, the Bengals possess the firepower to expose a Miami defense that has struggled to get consistent stops and has allowed opponents to sustain long drives throughout the season. Their status remains in question ahead of this week, but I expect a least one to play.
On the other side, the Dolphins appear to be searching for answers. Injuries have thinned their roster, the offense has lacked its usual explosiveness and the running game takes a significant hit without De’Von Achane. Against a Bengals defense capable of generating pressure and forcing mistakes, Miami may find itself fighting an uphill battle for much of the afternoon. While Miami is still dangerous enough to land a few punches, Cincinnati appears to be the more complete team in nearly every phase. The Bengals have been a few plays away from being undefeated, and this feels like the type of matchup where that underlying quality finally shows on the scoreboard.
Pick and analysis from expert handicapper Aaron Taylor
In addition to our Bengals vs Dolphins prediction on the side, you can also find out Aaron's pick on the total
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts ML over Pittsburgh Steelers (+120)
Odds widely available at time of publishing
The Colts are on a roll, while the Steelers have had their mojo stolen. Indianapolis enters at 2-2 following back-to-back wins, including a 17-point trouncing of Washington in London. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh surrendered its spot tied atop the AFC North to a Cleveland team that has spent much of the season battling quarterback woes and a rash of injuries. The Commanders lost Marcus Mariota against the Colts, making it easy for critics to argue that Indianapolis' success was simply the result of Washington's quarterback troubles. However, the Colts still scored 30 points – marking the second time in their last three games they have hit that exact total. Losing a starting quarterback mid-game can be demoralizing, but it doesn't explain why the defense surrendered three touchdowns and three field goals. In my opinion, the performance says a lot about their defense, and guys like Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren. I feel, however, it says the most about Daniel Jones, his resilience and how much he's beginning to resemble the brilliant version of himself from last season before the injury that cut it short.
Four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers has shown flashes of his old self, and the Steelers are coming off a primetime loss to the Browns after a hard-fought, back-and-forth win over the Bengals. Their other victory was a far less impressive 20-13 defeat of a Falcons team that, at the time, fielded one of the league's most inefficient passing attacks. They were then blown out in New England, exposing deficiencies on both sides of the ball, and they didn't look good for most of their game last week. I'll take the young, cannon-armed quarterback who appears to be ascending over a former champion who currently has as many questions as answers.
Pick and analysis from expert handicapper Aaron Taylor
Don't forget to check out our Colts vs Steelers pick on the total, as well
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Over 45.5 (-110)
Odds widely available at time of publishing
There is an argument to be made that the Bears’ defense is being slightly overrated for what it’s done thus far. After giving up 37 points in their only road game, the Bears held the Vikings to nine points with Carson Wentz at quarterback while playing in wet and windy conditions – that’s not all that impressive. Limiting the Eagles to seven looks good on the surface, but Philadelphia is bottom four in the league in EPA per play and success rate, and last week’s win over the Jets was without arguably their best offensive piece in RB Breece Hall. Per SumerSports, Chicago is 14th in the NFL in success rate allowed and one of the worst defenses in the league in PPA per rush; the Bears are also 29th in yards per rush allowed. If the Packers can get anything at all out of their backfield, Jordan Love should be able to lead this team to a few scoring drives. Even with Tyson Bagent under center, Ben Johnson seems to have utmost confidence in his offense. The Bears get into the red zone as much as anyone in the league according to TeamRankings. The Packers are dead last in the NFL in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (85.71%).
For me, it all leads to points -- especially when I diagnose the market. A total in the mid-40s seems somewhat high for a divisional game between a backup quarterback and a struggling offense. Moreover, this line re-opened a full point higher than last week’s lookahead line despite a poor offensive showing for Green Bay and a strong defensive showing for Chicago. In my opinion, that’s a strong market signal, and one that I’m confident in backing considering the matchup.
Pick and analysis from expert handicapper Sam Avellone
Get more expert analysis in our Bears vs Packers predictions
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens +3.5 over Atlanta Falcons (-115)
Odds widely available at time of publishing
First TNF, then MNF, now SNF – the Falcons are becoming common primetime viewing for football-loving Americans. Fortunately, that hasn’t been a bad thing the past two weeks. With Michael Penix Jr. back under center, Atlanta’s offense has been on fire. However, it’s worth noting that the Falcons accomplished this feat against two very bad defenses. The Packers’ front seven has been mauled by injuries, specifically missing superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons, and they’ve gone through an uncomfortable adjustment with Jonathan Gannon as their new coordinator. I'm not a big fan of Gannon and find no reason to be following the past five years of his coaching career. Atlanta also battled New Orleans, a division foe, who, like Green Bay, has been devastated by injuries and went into Week 4 with one of the worst run defenses. The Ravens’ defense has presented a mixed bag depending on their opponent, but they still rank top 11 in run defense and top 10 in opponent yards per play.
Lamar Jackson is out, but Tyler Huntley is one of the most capable backups in the business. On the other side of the ball, we have seen flashes of a highly disciplined group under new head coach Jesse Minter. Led by All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens will give Penix more problems than either Green Bay or New Orleans managed. It's easy to understand why markets have responded so positively to the Falcons after the last two weeks, but Baltimore has plenty of talent to keep this close or win. The value is on a deflated ‘dog.
Pick and analysis from pro NFL bettor Chris Farley.
Get NFL stats, trends and more in our full Ravens vs Falcons predictions for Sunday Night Football
NFL Week 5 Picks
Find out our expert NFL predictions for every Week 5 matchup below:
- Eagles vs Jaguars predictions
- Texans vs Titans predictions
- Bengals vs Dolphins predictions
- Raiders vs Patriots predictions
- Vikings vs Saints predictions
- Browns vs Jets predictions
- Colts vs Steelers predictions
- Giants vs Commanders prediction
- Broncos vs Chargers predictions
- Bears vs Packers predictons
- Lions vs Cardinals predictions
- 49ers vs Seahawks predictions
- Ravens vs Falcons SNF predictions
- Bills vs Rams MNF predictions
