Parlays

Thanksgiving Day features a trio of excellent NFL games, and one of the most consequential matchups of the weekend comes in the NFC North, where the Detroit Lions are set to host the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of a Week 1 contest in which Green Bay dominated the proceedings. Both of these teams have been up-and-down all season long, with the Lions struggling to generate consistent success against strong defenses without the services of Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, while the Packers are also searching for more consistency on a week-to-week basis on offense. Even in last week’s convincing win over Minnesota, Jordan Love and company were still held to less than 300 total yards of offense and largely benefitted from being plus-three in turnovers. However, what Green Bay does have is a very strong defense, which has the ability to generate pressure on Jared Goff and force the veteran quarterback into mistakes, much like we saw in the Week 1 meeting between these teams. As long as the Packers can somewhat limit the effectiveness of Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground, they should do a solid job of getting this Detroit offense off the field.

As for the hosts, the Lions have typically been an excellent team at home in the Dam Campbell era, but it has been tough sledding for Detroit in its recent home games. In fact, the Lions have been struggling against inferior competition, with Detroit losing outright as a significant favorite to the Vikings and needing overtime to get past the lowly Giants last week. This is not the same offense that we are used to seeing out of the Lions, and Johnson’s absence has clearly been felt in the first season with a new play-caller at the controls. On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defense has allowed a combined 54 points in its last 2 home games against the likes of J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston. That doesn’t bode well for the Lions in this NFC North showdown.

Packers vs Lions prediction: Packers ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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The Thanksgiving Day schedule in Week 13 of the NFL season features a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. It is an absolutely massive matchup, as both teams are teetering on the edge of wild-card contention in their respective conferences. I would not back the Cowboys without the hook, but I think they can keep this contest within a field goal. As such, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is for the home team to cover. Dallas kept itself alive in the NFC playoff picture with a monumental 24-21 victory over Philadelphia from 21-0 down this past Sunday at AT&T Stadium. The defense has looked much improved (granted, that’s not saying a lot) following the trade-deadline acquisitions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson, while QB Dak Prescott and WR George Pickens are simply on fire these days. Pickens has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past 2 games.

Kansas City kept its AFC wild-card hopes afloat with a 23-20 home win over Indianapolis in Week 12. It was an impressive result, but the Chiefs were behind 20-9 in the fourth quarter and just 1 or 2 plays by Daniel Jones here and there could have iced it in the Colts’ favor. These still aren’t the Chiefs of old. They are 6-5 overall and had lost 2 straight prior to their defeat of Indy. They are 1-4 away from home this season (1-3 in true road games). Patrick Mahomes delivering more late heroics to steal a win would not come as much of a surprise, but I don’t see the visitors covering -3.5.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys prediction: Cowboys +3.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Ravens eked out another win, their fifth straight, and with it reclaimed the top spot in the AFC North. A month-plus of nonstop victories is impressive, but they’re still leaving plenty to be desired. For example, their five straight wins came without a single game where Lamar Jackson threw over 200 yards. Their rushing has been far more consistent and remains one of the best operations in the NFL (fifth in yards per carry, averaging 4.9), which is what we’ve been used to from John Harbaugh’s regime.

Defensively we’re more impressed. Besides the Bears, who rank 9th in total offensive EPA, the Ravens’ defense has benefitted from an easy slate of opponents over the last five weeks. They’re still doing their jobs, and during the current winning streak they’ve kept enemy offenses to just 307.6 yards per game, a far cry from the 380.3 yards per game they allowed in six previous battles. Still, we have yet to see the Ravens’ defense against an above-average offense. That won’t be the case on Thursday.

On the Bengals’ side, it’s all about Joe Burrow. Cincinnati is obviously one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranked dead-last in total defensive EPA. Against the run they rank 29th, which is even more concerning against the Ravens (156 opponent rush yards per game, 31st). But there’s a reality where the Bengals can hang around if their star quarterback returns, a guy who instantly changes the mood of the entire franchise. At 3-8 and with very low chances of making a playoff run, we questioned whether Zac Taylor and the Bengals’ brass would let that happen. Despite our doubts, as of Monday reports from Cincinnati say the All-Pro will play, and he’ll be joined by fellow All-Pro Ja’Marr Chase, who’s coming off a suspension.

At first glance this seemed like an auto-bet on Baltimore but now we think it’s anything but. What opened as a -10.5-point spread is now down to -6.5 and for good reason. Other than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Burrow is as valuable as any single player. We like the Bengals’ extra juice from #9’s return to give us a close contest.

Bengals vs Ravens prediction: Bengals +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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This Tuesday night, the Atlanta Hawks will travel to take on the Washington Wizards in another round of the NBA Cup. The Hawks have a record of 11-7 this season, with a NBA Cup group record of 1-1. Atlanta has won its last 2 games, with its latest success coming against the Charlotte Hornets 113-110. Jalen Johnson led the Hawks in scoring with 28 points. Johnson has led the Hawks all season, averaging 22.4 points per game, 9.6 rebounds and 7.0 assists. The Wizards have a record of 1-15 and an NBA Cup group record of 0-2. Washington has lost its last 14 games, with its latest loss coming against the Chicago Bulls 121-120. Cam Whitmore led the Wizards in scoring with 20 points. Whitmore has scored 10 or more points for Washington in 6 of his last 7 games. 

A key injury to consider for this game is the continued absence of Trae Young. Young will be sidelined until at least the end of November with a knee injury. The Hawks’ depth has responded well without their star, posting a record of 8-4 in the month of November. Statistically, the Hawk’s offense has even improved without Young in the lineup. They are averaging around 5 points more per game than they did with Young present. Atlanta will have the opportunity tonight to put a big number up on the board against a Wizards team that allows a league-worst 129.1 points per game. For the Wizards, Marvin Bagley III and Kyshawn George are both listed as questionable. George could potentially miss with an illness. His absence would be felt, as he is the team’s second-leading scorer at 16.5 points per game. The good news for the Wizards is they have seen more role players step up in recent games. Corey Kispert, Alex Sarr and Bilal Coulibaly have all improved offensively over the last 5 games. Even CJ McCollum, who struggled to start the season, has now shot 40% or better from the field in his last 4 outings. The over has been popular in Washington games this season, hitting in 10 of 16. I expect offense to show up again tonight for both teams. 

Hawks vs Wizards prediction: Over 236.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Orlando Magic enter this matchup with a clear advantage as they face a Philadelphia team dealing with a key absence. The 76ers are just 3-7 SU when catching points, and the loss of VJ Edgecombe removes a crucial source of playmaking, spacing, and on ball defense. With additional uncertainty around other rotation pieces, Philadelphia’s depth is stretched thin, and their offense has shown noticeable slippage when forced into makeshift lineups. Against a physical Magic squad that thrives on pressure, attacking the paint, and generating extra possessions, this is a tough spot for the Sixers to maintain offensive rhythm.

Orlando’s offense has been reliable all season, averaging 118.3 points per game, with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner giving them versatility as downhill scorers and secondary playmakers. Their ability to attack mismatches, dominate in transition, and sustain scoring across all four quarters has made them a difficult matchup for undermanned defenses. Against a Philly team lacking guard depth and already struggling to defend without a full rotation, Orlando should find consistent scoring opportunities. With the Magic healthier, deeper, and performing at a higher level on both ends, the matchup tilts strongly in their favor.

Magic vs Sixers Prediction: Magic -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5

James Harden’s 55-point performance against the Hornets is the lone highlight of the Clippers’ current 7-game road trip. So far they are 2-4 SU, with their latest loss coming against the Cavaliers 120-105. Although Tuesday’s game is in LA, they will face the Lakers as the road team — which officially ends the road trip. I’m interested to see how the oldest roster in the league looks after traveling across the country just days before this game, and injuries haven’t been kind to the Clippers at all this season. Their latest loss is Derrick Jones Jr., who is out for an extended period of time with an MCL issue. The good news is we might see Kawhi Leonard; he just returned after not playing for 20 days with 20 points against the Cavs.

The Lakers come into this one following back-to-back victories over the Jazz, so their winning streak has now reached 4 games and they are showing no signs of slowing down. LeBron James has returned to the lineup and so far he has looked fairly solid for a player who is about to turn 41. This is now Luka Doncic’s team; he is the orchestrator of the offense,so  everyone else needs to adapt to him — and that includes the legend that LeBron is. Deandre Ayton will miss Tuesday’s game; he left the most recent game against the Jazz early with a knee issue that will keep him out for a bit. I expect the Lakers to go small here — aside from Jaxson Hayes, they don’t really have a traditional big man.

This being an NBA Cup game makes things all that more interesting, as the 2 teams are currently locked at 2-0 atop West Group B. Stakes are high and that will bring the best out of both teams. We all know how Doncic feels about the Clippers; he is averaging close to 30 points, 7.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game against them. I’m taking the Lake Show.

Clippers vs Lakers prediction: Lakers -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Kansas City Jayhawks took care of business on Monday in the Players Era Tournament, defeating Notre Dame 71-61, and now turn their attention to Syracuse. The Orange nearly pulled off an upset against Houston, falling 78-74 in overtime, and they will look to carry that same intensity into today’s matchup against the Jayhawks. 

Kansas shot 46.7% from the field while holding a solid Notre Dame team to 34.4% shooting. Houston owns the nation’s top-ranked defense according to KenPom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, but Syracuse also brings a strong defensive presence — allowing a mere 58.2 points per game and holding opponents to 32.2% shooting. Donnie Freeman continues to lead the Orange, averaging 17.8 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. The Jayhawks will be without leading scorer Darryn Peterson, and in his absence they will rely on Flory Bidunga and Tre White. Both stepped up in the win over Notre Dame, with Bidunga scoring 18 and White with 16 — giving the Jayhawks a balanced scoring attack. Syracuse played well against Houston and managed to find a way to score against that elite defense, but it has another tough test against Kansas and could be dealing with fatigue. The Jayhawks should be able to control the pace of the game and win comfortably, making Kansas my best bet of the day. 

Syracuse vs Kansas prediction: Kansas -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The St. John’s Red Storm and the Baylor Bears will play a non-conference game in Las Vegas on Tuesday. Both teams tipped off Feast Week yesterday with a game inside Michelob Ultra Arena for the Players Era Festival and they will play their second game on Tuesday. St. John’s lost a close one to Iowa State, while Baylor beat Creighton. I expect St. John’s to bounce back from its close loss on Monday and cover the -4.5 spread.

I think the Johnnies will dominate the paint in this matchup against Baylor. The Bears are not great at guarding the paint or defensive rebounding, and St. John’s should be able to take advantage in both of those areas. According to KenPom, St. John’s offense is ranked #26 in offensive rebounding percentage and #67 in 2-point percentage; Baylor’s defense is ranked #217 and #257. Baylor was able to out-rebound Creighton on Monday, but I expect regression against a good rebounding team like St. John’s. The Bears are 4-0 on the season, but I expect them to take their first loss. St. John’s is the more talented team and should come ready to play coming off a loss. I’m taking the Red Storm to cover.

St. John’s vs Baylor prediction: St. John’s -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The St. Bonaventure Bonnies face the North Carolina Tar Heels on Tuesday night in the Fort Myers Tip-Off. UNC and Michigan State are the headliners in this field, and they will meet on Thanksgiving Day. But first the Heels get the Bonnies, and I look for Carolina to get the win and cover. UNC is 5-0 to start the season; its key win has come over Kansas. Of course, since then the Tar Heels have lost star guard Seth Trimble for a few weeks to a broken forearm, so that is obviously a factor. Still, I think there is a large talent gap between the Heels and the Bonnies. I will take UNC -10.5.

St. Bonaventure enters the game at 5-0, as well, but this will be its first game against a solid opponent. The Bonnies are a methodical team, but Carolina tends to speed up everyone. The Bonnies also excel on the offensive glass, but it is hard to imagine that will remain true when they step up in competition against the Heels. The Carolina rotation is a little shorter without Trimble, but this team is still scoring, still playing fast and still rebounding well — and all those things should lead to a comfortable win in the opener of this tournament.

St. Bonaventure vs North Carolina prediction: UNC -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Bowling Green Falcons hit the road for Amherst, Massachusetts to battle the UMass Minutemen at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium. The Minutemen have played 11 games, and they’ve lost all 11 outings. They’ve dropped all five games at home, while going 1-4 against the spread (ATS). However, Bowling Green is 0-5 on the road this season, and just 2-3 ATS on the road. While UMass isn’t very good, Bowling Green has no business laying two touchdowns to anybody, either, especially on the road. As such, let’s look to the total instead.

Bowling Green has cashed the Under in five straight games, all losses, as Eddie George’s team hit a wall in mid-October after a stunning 28-23 win over bitter rival Toledo at Doyt L. Perry Stadium as 11.5-point underdogs. The Falcons have scored just 67 points in five games, or 13.4 PPG. The defense has actually gotten a little better, though, including a solid 19-16 showing at home against Akron last Tuesday. UMass has cashed the Over in each of the past five outings, with the offense good for just 10.0 PPG in the past four outings. Defensively, though, it has allowed 38 or more points in four in a row, and 42 or more points in each of the past three. We’re not going to get a shootout, but we should at least get to 50 here.

Bowling Green vs UMass prediction: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5.

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The first-place Western Michigan Broncos head east on Interstate 94 from Kalamazoo to Ypsilanti to battle the Eastern Michigan Eagles on the gray turf of Rynearson Stadium. If you’ve seen, making sure to tune in. Trust me, there is nothing wrong with your TV set, even though it looks like it. Western Michigan clinched its spot in the MAC Championship Game in Detroit in early December after a 35-19 win at Northern Illinois as a 7-point favorite. The Over has cashed in three of the past four games, too, while it has won seven of the past eight overall.

Eastern Michigan is eliminated from postseason contention, so this is, essentially, its bowl game. It’s senior night in Ipsy, and EMU hopes to continue to be a thorn in the side of their directional rivals from The ‘Zoo. EMU is 4-2 SU/ATS in the past six meetings, while winning and covering two of the past three meetings at home. The underdog is 6-3 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, too. Let’s back the Eagles catching the points, as the Broncos should get it done straight up. However, who knows what kind of motivation they’ll have, with a title game spot already wrapped up. Could we even see key personnel rest?

Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan prediction: Eastern Michigan +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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