Parlays

The annual Egg Bowl is one of the best rivalries in college football and Saturday’s installment has the potential to be one of the more consequential games in this rivalry on Friday, as Ole Miss needs a win to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff, while the Bulldogs are looking to pick up a victory to make a bowl game after starting the season with little to no expectations. This is also a game where there are a ton of off-field distractions at hand, as the Rebels are expected to lose head coach Lane Kiffin at the end of the regular season based on recent reporting. Given the fact that this could be Kiffin’s last game as the head coach in Oxford and he’s likely headed to another team within the SEC, it would be fair to question if both he and his team are in the right frame of mind to hit the road and play in an extremely important game to clinch a College Football Playoff berth against an opponent that is better than their record.

I successfully backed Mississippi State against multiple SEC foes this season, and I’m going back to the well with the Bulldogs at home against an Ole Miss team that has to be in a strange spot mentally at the moment. Ole Miss just struggled to put away Florida at home in its last contest and Mississippi State is certainly a better team than the reeling Gators. Furthermore, the Bulldogs will be at home, where they’ve excelled at this season, already beating Arizona State as an underdog of a touchdown and nearly upsetting both Texas and Tennessee as a home ‘dog of around a touchdown. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has undoubtedly been a pleasant surprise this season, but playing on the road in this type of rivalry game will still be a new experience for a player in Chambliss that is due for some turnover regression sooner rather than later. 

As for the other side of the ball, the Mississippi State offense should be able to keep the Bulldogs in this game, especially against an Ole Miss defense that has struggled in a number of conference games this season. The Mississippi State offense is a veteran group that sits in the top 20 nationally in rushing success rate and points per quality drive. We can expect Jeff Lebby’s group to be the one to bring the energy and punch Ole Miss in the mouth early on, which should lead to a fun back-and-forth game. We just saw Ole Miss lose a similar “win and in” type of game a season ago at Florida as a significant favorite, and it wouldn’t surprise me if history repeated itself on Friday.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +7

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Another chapter of the in-state rivalry known as “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” will be written on Saturday when the Georgia Bulldogs meet the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Friday at 3:30 PM ET on ABC. The Bulldogs have been on a torrid run since losing at home to Alabama, winning 7 straight games and scoring an average of 33.3 points per game in that span. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech’s season started sputtering out of control with a loss at NC State in Week 10, followed by a near-loss at Boston College in Week 12. Last week, the Yellow Jackets lost their grip on the ACC title race with an ugly loss against Pitt, so they will now have to rely on Virginia Tech and California beating Virginia and SMU, respectively, in order to earn a spot in Charlotte’s ACC title game. 

Georgia Tech’s Achilles heel has been its defense all season long, and last week was a clear example of that – as the Yellow Jackets surrendered 412 yards and 35 offensive points to a Pitt team that was just held to 219 yards and 15 points at home against Notre Dame the week prior. Since Week 9, Tech ranks outside the top 115 in most defensive metrics, and it’s not going to get any easier for the Yellow Jackets this week when they line up opposite of a Georgia offense that has been one of the best in the country of late. The ‘Dawgs are top-8 in PPA per play and points per quality drive outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks, and they are especially good on standard downs in that time – which is where Tech has been at its worst lately. 

On the other side of the ball, Georgia boasts a very strong run defense that sits top-11 in total rush yards allowed, rushing yards per game, and yards per rush. This bodes well for the ‘Dawgs, as Tech is typically very good on the ground – especially on standard downs. Georgia’s innate ability to limit big plays will also play a factor in this game considering one of GT’s biggest offensive attributes is its explosiveness. Now throw in the unquantifiable angle of a potential letdown spot for Tech after losing hold of the ACC title race, and it’s hard to find any reliable path to a Jackets cover here. My numbers make this a 15-point Georgia win on a neutral field, and you could probably argue that Georgia may even deserve a point for pseudo-home-field advantage while playing at Mercedes-Benz since this program does it so frequently.  Lay it with the ‘Dawgs. 

Georgia vs Georgia Tech prediction: Georgia Bulldogs -13 at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -14.

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The Lonestar Showdown returned after a 12-year hiatus last year when the #3 Texas Longhorns went into College Station and beat the #20 Texas A&M Aggies 17-7. One year later, the roles are essentially reversed, as the Aggies are #3 in the CFP Rankings coming into this game while the ‘Horns are #17. As it stands, Texas A&M is 1 of 3 undefeated teams remaining in the FBS. 

Texas has been touted as one of the strongest defenses in the country, but that hasn’t been the case in recent weeks. The Longhorns have surrendered at least 31 points in 4 straight games against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Arkansas, and now they square off against one of the best and most electrifying offenses in the country in Texas A&M. The Aggies come into this game as a top-15 team in scoring, total offense, and yards per play, and they have top-35 red-zone offense to boot. 

On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M has one of the most aggressive defenses in the country. The Aggies are 2nd nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss, which is going to put a ton of pressure on Arch Manning and a mediocre offensive line by SEC standards – one that is 78th in sacks surrendered and 92nd in tackles for loss allowed. Furthermore, the Longhorns have struggled offensively on standard downs and with their run-game efficiency, and that’s not going to put them in very favorable positions against what has been the best third-down defense in the country this year. 

Texas’ offense has been below-average at best in scoring situations, sitting 84 in points scored per quality drive over the last 5 weeks and outside the top 70 in red zone scoring over the course of the whole season. When you combine their red-zone woes with what has become an unreliable defense, it’s hard to trust the Longhorns against what’s been a wagon of a Texas A&M team – maybe aside from a single, fluky half against South Carolina. Give me Texas A&M, but on the money line given its affordable price. 

Texas A&M vs Texas prediction: Texas A&M Aggies ML (-122) on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -135 or up to -2.5 on the spread.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes may have won the national title last year, but I can promise you one thing, Buckeye Nation has not forgotten about the 13-10 home loss to Michigan – OSU’s lone blemish on an otherwise memborable season. In fact, I would argue the fanbase dwells more on that loss than it celebrates the championship at times, but that’s the beauty of college athletics – rivalries just mean that much more. 

After losing 8 in a row to the Buckeyes, the Wolverines have rattled off 4 straight wins, but I sense that streak is going to end this year. I said that last year, but this year I really mean it. I don’t even need to reference stats, and I don’t need to sell how important this game is for the Buckeyes. Being from Ohio myself, even if I am not an OSU alum, I just know. This game means more than a regular season game, and it’s not even because of what’s at stake as it pertains to the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff seeding, it’s because it’s Michigan, and it’s about revenge. Plain and simple. This game has been circled since the moment Ryan Day walked in his office after the mystifying 3-point loss last year, and I can assure you, the Buckeyes will be ready for this one – and they’re not going to let up.

If you want some stats and information, I have some for you. Michigan is extremely banged up right now. Starting RB Justice Haynes is out, as is starting safety Rod Moore. Meanwhile, starting FB Max Bredeson (a key blocker) and LB Ernest Hausmann are questions at this moment. If these guys can walk without a limp and endure pain without more than a grimace, I expect them to play – as I expect both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate to play. 

When completely healthy, this Ohio State offense is eons better than Michigan’s. The Buckeyes are top-10 in almost every offensive stat category imaginable, and the same can be said about the defensive side of the ball. On the contrary, Michigan has a middling-to-below-average offense outside of its run game – which OSU is likely to stifle. Defensively, the Wolverines just haven’t been good enough down-to-down or in scoring situations to make me think they are going to suffocate the Buckeyes like they did last year. After all, most of Michigan’s defensive stalwarts from last year’s edition of The Game are now in the NFL. 

I get it – laying double digits in a rivalry game on the road in wintry conditions isn’t ideal, but none of it matters here. Ohio State imposes its will, Michigan struggles to get going, and the Buckeyes put away the Wolverines convincingly. 

Ohio State vs Michigan prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -9.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11.

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The in-state rivalry between Vanderbilt and Tennessee doesn’t have an official name, but it’s been around since the late 1800s. The Volunteers have won the last 4 meetings, scoring at least 36 points in each game, and while Vanderbilt tried to be competitive in some of those recent meetings, the Commodores feel much more well-equipped to handle Tennessee this time around.

The ‘Dores are top-10 in scoring, total offense, yards per play, and red-zone touchdown rate on the season as a whole, and they haven’t let off the gas of late. Since Week 9, Vandy is 6th in PPA per play, including top-20 efficiency on both standard and passing downs, and top-20 points per quality drive. Moreover, the Commodores continue to be one of the best third-offenses in the country thanks to being in more manageable situations via their efficiency on first and second downs – which is a weakness of this Tennessee defense. The Vols are outside the top 80 in third-down conversion rate allowed, and they can be had in the red zone – as they rank third-to-last (134th) in opposing red-zone touchdown rate. 

I never want to try to pretend like a rivalry game doesn’t matter for one team, but I would argue this game means way more for Vanderbilt than it does Tennessee. The Vols in CFP purgatory. Meaning, they are bowl eligible, but not good enough to make the 12-team playoff with 3 losses. Meanwhile, the Commodores are 9-2, and a win over Tennessee mixed in with some help above them could lead to a Vanderbilt playoff berth – just like everyone envisioned at the beginning of the year. 

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores +3 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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Rivalry week comes to the Carolinas on Saturday night as the North Carolina State Wolfpack hosts the North Carolina Tar Heels. The inaugural season of Bill Belichick has not gone well, and taking a shot at their in-state rival will be the end of the road for the 4-7 Heels. The Wolpack have pulled off a couple of upsets, including a defeat of then-unbeaten Georgia Tech and then a win over Florida State last week. In this kind of rivalry, heaven only knows how the game will go, and it is hard to think that metrics and trends will hold. Instead, I am going to play the over, especially at a relatively low number. Give me the game total over 47.5.

I love to pick on the NC State defense; they are really bad. The Pack ranks 127 out of 134 in total defense, and prior to Florida State’s ineptitude last week, NC State had given up 41, 36, 53, and 36 in the previous 4 games. I just don’t see how they stop anyone, and I am happy to fade that defense any time. UNC has struggled on both sides of the ball though, and that has this number low. Still, this is a rivalry game, and everyone will pull out all the stops, with nothing to lose. I think this game is really likely to escalate quickly, and it is far more likely to turn into a shootout than a grind.

North Carolina vs North Carolina State Prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at the time of publication. Playable at that number.

Once 0-3, the surging Houston Texans are breathing down the necks of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. That makes Sunday’s Week 13 showdown in Indianapolis an absolutely crucial contest. There is simply no way I’m giving more than a field goal in this kind of division-rivalry game, especially when Houston is on such a roll — 6-2 in its last 8 outings. As such, my Texans vs Colts prediction is for the visitors to cover. Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is coming off a dominant defensive performance on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, paving the way to a 23-19 upset of the Bills. Houston forced 3 turnovers (2 Josh Allen interceptions), limited Buffalo to 4.9 yards per play and sacked Allen a ridiculous 8 times for a total of 70 lost yards. 
 
Since the Texans played on Thursday, they are effectively on a mini-bye week. They are well rested and armed with a ton of momentum, whereas the Colts just suffered a tough loss at Kansas City. Prior to that result, Indianapolis needed overtime to get past a mediocre-at-best Atlanta squad in Berlin. Quarterback Daniel Jones was playing awesome football earlier this season, but he has come back down to Earth over the past 3 games. Jones going up against this ferocious Texans defense — and specifically a pass rush spearheaded by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter — spells serious trouble for the home team.

Texans vs Colts prediction: Houston Texans +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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The Los Angeles Rams (9-2) remain on fire after blowing out Tampa Bay last Sunday, 34-7 as 7.5-point favorites to grab their sixth consecutive victory. The Rams own the best record in the NFC heading into Week 13, while scoring at least 34 points in four of the past five games. L.A. looks to avoid a letdown with a trip out east against the Carolina Panthers (6-6), who return home following a 20-9 loss at San Francisco.

The Panthers haven’t lost consecutive games since the first two weeks of the season. Carolina is 4-0 straight-up and against the spread off a defeat since losing at Arizona in Week 2. Among those victories, the Panthers shocked the Packers as 13.5-point underdogs in Week 9, and home underdog upsets of Atlanta in Week 3 and Dallas in Week 6. Carolina is seeking consistency from QB Bryce Young, who has been held to less than 200 passing yards in eight of the last nine games. Also, the Panthers have not suffered back-to-back ATS defeats this season, as Carolina has done a nice job of being competitive off a loss.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford is the MVP front-runner, throwing for 2,830 yards, 30 touchdowns, and only two interceptions. Stafford has posted multi-touchdown passing efforts in nine of 11 games, while the Rams have not lost away from SoFi Stadium since the Week 3 meltdown at Philadelphia. The Rams begin a stretch of four of the next five games on the road, while not leaving the state of California since October 19 when they faced the Jaguars in London. The Panthers have shown a nice knack of rebounding this season as this can be a down spot for the Rams off a huge Sunday night blowout of the Buccaneers.

Rams vs Panthers best bet: Panthers +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.

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The Broncos and Commanders are both coming off a bye week. They entered those bye weeks in completely different positions. Denver is riding as high as the mountains they’re from, currently on an eight-game winning streak with impressive victories over teams like the Texans, Chiefs, and Eagles. Their defense is highly rated, top-five in most categories and permitting just 17.5 points per game (3rd). Denver’s offense, although inconsistent, does enough, and they know how to finish games. The Broncos are second overall in fourth-quarter points, averaging 9.5 per game. In short, this is a team that knows how to win, which is all you need to make it deep into the playoffs. It doesn’t always equate against the spread; the Broncos are just 5-5-1 this season.

As of Wednesday, the Commanders aren’t sure if they’re getting back Jayden Daniels yet, but it’s starting to trend in that direction. Daniels has already expressed his desire to play, and if he does that clearly changes Washington’s potential. But even when the second-year quarterback was not in the game, the squad from DC just hasn’t been very good this season. They rank a respectable 12th in offensive EPA but a very lackluster 31st on defense. Part of that is due to injuries, most of it is due to an older roster with too many randomly assembled parts. Even Dan Quinn, whose expertise is defense, hasn’t helped solve that side of the ball. 

The allure of Daniels is enough to consider Washington here, but we’re concerned that they are running into a buzz saw. And frankly, The Commanders’ roster is nowhere near as talented as their opponent. They’re also even more pitiful against the spread, just 3-8 ATS this season. In every category, the visitors have the edge.

Broncos vs Commanders SNF best bet: Broncos -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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