Parlays

Indiana enters this matchup fresh off an ugly loss to Cleveland, a game where they closed as a 6.5-point underdog and were never truly competitive. The Pacers trailed by as much as 21. Under normal market mechanics, a defeat of that magnitude should push the next line upward, especially when facing an elite opponent like Denver. Yet, the number barely budged. That’s the first and most important clue from the market for this matchup.

Denver’s profile here actually contributes to the value on Indiana. The Nuggets were also beaten soundly a couple of nights ago, falling by 10 at home to Dallas while allowing 131 points. That type of defensive collapse is unusual for a team with Denver’s pedigree, and it introduces doubt into their ability to travel and immediately snap back into form. A true “bounce-back spot” for Denver would normally prompt a steeper line, especially against a Pacers team trending in the wrong direction. But that didn’t happen. And yet, Indiana is still undervalued while Denver is priced at reputation rather than form. The market has already hinted at the correct side, and it’s the underdog.

Nuggets vs Pacers prediction: Pacers +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the +7.

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The maturation process of this Detroit Pistons team can be seen in real time. After two tight losses by 3 points against the Celtics and Magic, they responded by beating the Heat and Hawks by a combined 4 points. It’s hard to find a flaw that this team has at the moment, they are undoubtedly the biggest surprise in the NBA this year with a 17-4 record over the first 21 games played. They’ll look to go up 2-0 in the regular season series against Milwaukee as the two teams clash on Wednesday at Fiserv Forum. Detroit has already won once this season in this building, some 10 days ago they put up 129 on the Bucks in a convincing 13-point win.

Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play in that game, the Bucks looked lost without him and didn’t stand a chance even with 20 threes made. The Greek Freak is back in the line-up, however he hasn’t gotten the response from his teammates. A close loss to the Washington Wizards has sparked a debate whether or not the Bucks should simply blow it all up and allow Giannis to go to a contender. Antetokounmpo himself has added wood to the fire by deleting all of his social media posts since 2021, all this certainly does not help the atmosphere around this team.

I am genuinely surprised the Pistons are only 3.5-point favorites here. Apart from Giannis coming back from injury, the Bucks haven’t done anything to convince me they can cover the spread against a well-oiled machine like Detroit. The Pistons are 8-2 SU in road games this season and are a very solid 13-8 ATS in 21 games so far. I’ll take Cade Cunningham and co. here.

Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks Predictions: Pistons -3.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Miami looks like the obvious side at first glance. The Heat are 14–7 on the year, 13–8 ATS, and fresh off a 17-point beatdown of the Clippers on Monday. They’ve been dominant at home, winning 10 of their 14 games in South Beach but on the road? They are a question mark. This is where the opportunity emerges.

Dallas, on the other hand, is still viewed as inconsistent and difficult to trust. But the market is behind the curve here. Dallas has clearly shifted gears, and the evidence is in the last two outings: a road win as a nine-point dog at the Clippers, and an even more impressive 131–121 upset at Denver as an 11-point underdog. These aren’t accidents — this is a team heating up. With a high total, the expectation is a high-tempo game with both teams scoring freely. This makes the Mavs an attractive dog at this number. Miami is still priced based on reputation, while Dallas is not being properly priced now that its healthier. That discrepancy gives us value on Wednesday.

Heat vs Mavericks prediction: Mavericks ML (+135) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Dallas Stars are set to play their second consecutive road game in as many nights when they face the New Jersey Devils on Wednesday night. Dallas lost a heartbreaker on Tuesday night, falling 3-2 to the Rangers in overtime at Madison Square Garden. Dallas led 2-1 with under 3 minutes to go in regulation, but Will Cuylle tied the game at 17:47 and Vladislav Gavrikov potted the game-winner just over a minute into the overtime frame. Now, the Stars have to try to quickly regroup before facing the Devils on Wednesday.

New Jersey has now played 9 games without Jack Hughes, owning a 4-5-0 record in that span. However, the Devils have a strong scheduling advantage in this one, as they haven’t played since Monday night in Columbus. The Devils have also been a great home team on the season, as they are an impressive 9-2-1 at the Prudential Center, and just 7-7-0 on the road. Jacob Markstrom is slated to be in net, and is slowing rounding into form with wins in 2 of his last 3 starts. This could be a tough spot for Dallas, which makes New Jersey the play. Consider a small wager backing the Devils on home ice.

Stars vs Devils prediction: Devils ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Buffalo Sabres travel to meet the Philadelphia Flyers at Xfinity Mobile Arena, formerly known as Wells Fargo Center. The Sabres picked up a 5-1 win over the Winnipeg Jets as short ‘dogs on Monday night, cashing the Under for the fifth consecutive game. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been giving the Sabres a chance to win lately, picking up 3 wins in his past 4 starts, including wins over the Jets and the Eastern Conference powerhouse Carolina Hurricanes. In that five-game span of unders, the Sabres have averaged 2.8 goals per game, while allowing 2.6 goals in those contests. It’s been a little bit of a Jekyll and Hyde situation, too, with Buffalo winning 2 of those games by 2 or more goals, while also losing by 2 or more goals twice.

For the Flyers, they had a disappointing 5-1 loss on home ice against the rival Pittsburgh Penguins, halting an impressive 3-game win streak. While Philly has 4 or more goals in 3 of the past 4 games, it has one or no goals in 2 of the past 5 outings, and 4 of the past 10 games. Like Buffalo, the offense has been a little bit erratic, although the defense and goaltending has allowed three or more goals in 5 of the past 6 games, at least 2 goals in 11 straight. The Over is 3-0 in the past three meetings, and 5-1-2 in the past 8 in the series, with the winning team netting 4 or more goals in each of the past 10 in the series. Let’s aim for the over, and feel confident in doing so.

Sabres vs Flyers prediction: Over 6 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals take on Macklin Celebrini and the San Jose Sharks on Wednesday night in the NHL. These intra-conference opponents meet for the first of two matchups, and should bring high levels of action to the ice. 

There is a ton of firepower on these teams and they both have been fun to watch. We should be in for a lot of excitement, and I expect a lot of goals. Washington has been elite offensively this year, as they have the fourth-highest goals per game average of 3.4, and should be able to continue this strength against a Sharks team that is tied for the ninth-worst goals against average (3.04) this season. This should be a great matchup for Ovechkin and an impressive crew of Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome, and Jakob Chychrun to name a few. Washington has also been elite defensively, but this strength may not completely shut down a young Sharks team. 2024 1st overall pick Celebrini leads way with 40 points (second in the NHL), with 20-year-old Will Smith and 23-year-old Williak Eklund having their way as well. Ultimately, I see the Capitals pulling ahead, but I see lots of goals in this one regardless of result.  

Capitals vs. Sharks prediction: Over 5.5 (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

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