Parlays
Apart from the Game 3 win, we haven’t seen much from the Milwaukee Bucks in this series. Game 4 was an absolute disaster, with Damian Lillard suffering an Achilles’ tear in the early stages and the Bucks could just never recover mentally. Giannis Antetokounmpo did his part with 28 points and 15 rebounds, but it appears that long gone are the days when he was able to carry an entire franchise on his back. As depressing as it might sound, it’s hard to imagine head coach Doc Rivers making any major adjustments for Game 5; the Bucks simply don’t have anything extra to offer that we haven’t seen already.
Indiana’s offense has been clicking this postseason run, with its only blemish being the Game 3 defeat in which it scored just 101 points. Indy actually leads all 16 postseason teams in mid-range field-goal efficiency at 53.1% — ahead of the Warriors, Lakers and Cavaliers. Only 28% of Indiana’s field goal makes have been unassisted; this is a true definition of a team. The growth has been fun to watch over the past couple of seasons, as many people doubted their East Finals appearance last year while blaming injuries and other factors for them making it that far. Going into Game 5 there’s just one thing on the Pacers players’ minds: to not give the Bucks any extra life in this series.
The Pacers are 15-2 SU in 17 home games and 8-1 SU in their last 9 vs the Bucks. They have also covered in 3 of the 4 games in this series, and after that Lillard injury the life has just been sucked out of this Bucks team. I’m just not sure they can recover so quickly. Give me the Pacers to clinch this one at home.
Bucks vs Pacers prediction: Indiana -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The first 4 games between the Pistons and Knicks has arguably been the most entertaining and white-knuckle series in the NBA playoffs, and Game 4 featured a furious New York comeback in the fourth quarter en route to a wild 1-point victory. Now, with their backs against the wall after dropping both games at home, Madison Square Garden is about as difficult of an environment to throw this young Pistons team into for an elimination game — and we have seen that inexperience for Cade Cunningham and the rest of the Pistons in the fourth quarters of all 4 games thus far. Tuesday’s contest is a really tough spot for the Pistons, as they seem to be out of counter moves — while the Knicks should be able to tweak their game-plan toward what worked (playing in transition, forcing turnovers, running more offense through Karl-Anthony Towns) and what didn’t work in Games 3 and 4. Detroit has no clear answer for Jalen Brunson at this point, and we should also get better shooting games from OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges than what we saw in Game 4. On the other side, with Cunningham continuing to go through hot and cold spells in his difficult matchup against Anunoby and the Knicks’ perimeter defense. I’ll certainly trust Brunson and the ancillary pieces on New York compared to Detroit’s personnel, which gives the Pistons a more limited offensive capacity.
As I mentioned in my preview for the opening game of the series, teams that tend to win games in the playoff also cover spreads. In fact, we are now on a 5-year run of straight-up winners covering the spread at an 89% clip. With that in mind, I’ll continue to follow this trend and lay the points with the Knicks in a game in which New York should do enough to put away the Pistons in front of its home fans.
Pistons vs Knicks prediction: New York -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Orlando Magic battled to the end in Game 4 against the Boston Celtics. They were only down by 4 heading into the fourth quarter, ultimately slipping to a 9-point loss. The grit and grind this team has shown should set them up perfectly to stay competitive out on the road in Game 5. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have not disappointed in any of the games so far, averaging a combined 58 points per game. The Celtics have had real trouble keeping the pair out of the paint and there is nothing to suggest that will change ahead of this one. If the remaining cast can chip in, the visitors can stay competitive in a slow-paced, defensive battle.
The Magic have done a phenomenal job in keeping the Celtics quiet from the perimeter, holding them to below 10 made 3-pointers in each of the games so far. In Game 4 the Celtics made just 29% of their 3-point attempts. If this trend is to continue, it’s hard to see the home team easily surpassing the 100-point mark, which would then only require the Magic to score around 90 to cover with the 11.5 points that have been given. Orlando showed much greater effort in the last outing to attack in transition and has now surpassed the 90-point mark in each of the games of the series apart from the opener. Do not be shocked to see the Magic go over 100 in this one. I’m taking the points with the visitors as a result.
Magic vs Celtics prediction: Orlando +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.5.
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Arguably the best series of the opening round to this point has come in the Western Conference between the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets, with 3 of the 4 games being decided by one possession. And while I haven’t had the greatest handle on this series from a totals perspective, I’m of the belief that the Nuggets miraculous victory on an Aaron Gordon dunk at the buzzer has set us up for a great zig-zag spot in favor of the Clippers on Tuesday.
While the momentum has swung back and forth in this series, the Clippers are the better, deeper roster and the more consistent team on a game-to-game basis. It all starts on defense for Los Angeles, as head coach Ty Lue’s team boasts one of the best defenses in the league. In fact, outside of the brilliance of Nikola Jokic, Denver has really struggled to find consistent success in the halfcourt in this series. We’ve also seen Denver’s lack of depth rear its ugly head, as the Nuggets are even more limited without the services of Russell Westbrook off the bench. Jokic has put up his usual excellent numbers in this series, but the Clippers have forced him into a number of careless mistakes, most of which happened in Games 2 and 3. While Jokic is coming off a tremendous game, there is something to be said for the struggles of Denver’s supporting cast, particularly Jamal Murray, who has struggled to get anything going offensively all series long. With Murray’s limitations at the moment, along with Michael Porter Jr’s precarious shoulder injury situation, it’s difficult to see Denver getting consistent production from the non-Jokic players once again on Tuesday.
On the other side of the ball, while Denver’s defensive effort is markedly improved from where it was in the regular season, this is still a bottom 10 unit in defensive rating, and those woes have particularly showed up against high-level competition. That is exactly what the Clippers bring to the table with James Harden and Kawhi Leonard both turning in stellar performances in this series thus far. The Nuggets have not shown an ability to slow down either player, and that’s before Harden gets Ivica Zubac involved in the pick-and-roll game. Ultimately, I’m expecting a slight regression to the mean for Denver’s defense and plenty of high-pressure minutes for a weakened Nuggets offense in a game that could come down to a couple of key open shots on either side. I trust Los Angeles to make those shots and win a massive Game 5 on the road.
Clippers vs Nuggets prediction: Los Angeles ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
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It’s an NL Central showdown as the Chicago Cubs head east to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both teams are coming off back-to-back losses and will look to regain momentum heading into the month of May. This will be the first time the Cubs have faced anyone from their own division and it should be an exciting matchup as these two clubs are playing at completely different levels this season. It’s going to be a southpaw battle as the Cubs are expected to start Shota Imanaga who’s 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in six starts this season. Imanaga has struck out 27 and has a WHIP of 1.09 in 34 innings. For the Pirates, Andrew Heaney has been having himself a year. The 11th-year veteran is 2-1 with a 1.72 ERA in five starts. In 31.1 innings pitched, Heaney has struck out 31 and has a WHIP of 0.77.
Heany has been impressive this season, there’s no denying that, but the last time he faced an offense as powerful as the Cubs were the Yankees back on April 6. The Cubs love hitting left-handed pitching, batting .282 with 11 homers. It doesn’t matter who the Pirates face, their offense is one of the worst in all of baseball, sitting in 27th in OPS (.645) and averaging just 3.5 runs per game. As for the Cubs, they’re first in all of baseball in OPS (.784) and average 5.9 runs per game. Heany is going to have his work cut out for him and at the end of the day, this Cubs team is more well-rounded than the Pirates, which is why I’ll be backing the Cubs moneyline as my best bet of the day.
Cubs vs Pirates prediction: Chicago ML (-155) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.
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Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet looks to help his team make it 3 in a row as he takes the mound against the AL East rival Toronto Blue Jays. Boston is coming off a strong series against the Guardians, taking 2 out of 3and outsourcing Cleveland 24-11. The same can’t be said for the Blue Jays, who dropped 2 of 3 against the Yankees while getting outscored 18-7. Toronto has now lost 7 of its last 8 games and things won’t get much easier as it gets ready to face a tough Red Sox team tonight.
Crochet will make his seventh start of the year. In that span, Crochet is 2-2 with a 1.95 ERA. He wasn’t himself in his last outing against the Mariners, giving up 4 earned runs on 5 hits in five innings pitched. For the Jays, Bowden Francis will take the mound. He is 2-3 with a 3.58 ERA in 5 starts this season. Bowden struggled in his last appearance against the Astros, giving up 3 earned runs on 8 hits in just 4.2 innings pitched. The Blue Jays are averaging 2.5 runs per game in their last 11, whereas the Sox are averaging 5.8 in their last 12. Toronto’s offense has fallen off, and Bowden probably won’t get much run support based on the way things have been trending. I don’t think Crochet will have any issues rebounding from his last start, which is why I expect the Red Sox to keep things rolling and steal a win on the road — making Boston on the money line my best bet of the day.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays prediction: Boston ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Here, we will see the Miami Marlins go up against the Los Angeles Dodgers for the second time this season. In yesterday’s game, we saw the Dodgers come away with a 7-6 victory in extra innings. The Marlins bullpen was called in early in this one due to Edward Cabrera giving up 9 hits and 5 runs in 4 innings. This was the 3rd victory in a row for the Dodgers and the 3rd loss in a row for the Marlins. The Marlins will look for Sandy Alcantara to turn things around. This may be a big ask, as he has given up 13 runs on 14 hits, including 8 walks in his last 13.2 innings pitched. To top it off, the Dodgers lineup hold a .306 batting average against Alcantara with a .515 slugging percentage. This is an extremely concerning statistic as the Dodgers have a .295 batting average over the past week. To make matters worse, the Marlins were forced to use 6 bullpen pitchers in the previous game. This means that they may be relying on Alcantara to go deep into the game to avoid burning out the bullpen.
Overall, the clear edge in this game comes in the form of the Dodgers bats. The Dodgers have a history of hitting Alcantara well. Additionally, the Dodgers have scored 24 runs in the last 3 games accruing a total of 37 hits. It is hard to believe that this will be the game where Alcantara is able to turn around his below-average form. Our lean is on the Dodgers to cover the run line.
Marlins vs Dodgers prediction: Los Angeles -1.5 (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to advance to the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs when they host the Ottawa Senators for Game 5 on Tuesday night. The Maple Leafs own a 3-1 series lead, as they won the first 3 games of the series before the Senators picked up a win in Game 4 on Saturday. Now the series returns to Toronto, where head coach Craig Berube’s squad has won 9 straight games going back to the regular season. Oddsmakers are heavily favoring Toronto on home ice, and Berube has his team in solid position to take care of business in this one.
The Maple Leafs outscored the Senators 9-4 in the first 2 games of this series, both of which resulted in home wins. Toronto’s powerplay was firing on all cylinders, going 4-for-7 in those 2 outings. The Maple Leafs are getting production from their top guys so far this postseason, as Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander and Mitch Marner all have 5+ points through 4 games. Toronto has been plenty comfortable on home ice over the course of the last month, and despite the Game 4 loss it is playing with confidence. Consider backing the Maple Leafs to wrap up this series with a regulation win.
Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction: Toronto 3-way ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.
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The Minnesota Wild head back to Las Vegas for a pivotal Game 5 of their Western Conference first-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena. The Wild had the chance to really put the Golden Knights into a tough spot, leading Game 4 on home ice with a 2-1 series advantage. However, the lead evaporated after Nicolas Roy’s power-play goal leveled things. Tomas Hertl gave Vegas a brief third-period lead, but Jared Spurgeon helped the Wild pull even and force overtime. However, it was Ivan Barbashev scoring late in overtime to level this series heading back to the desert.
Minnesota has given Vegas all it can handle in this series so far, including a pair of decisive 5-2 victories in Games 2 and 3. However, the Golden Knights are 30-10-3 at home in the regular season and playoffs, and this is a tough place to win — let alone win twice in the span of a week. Vegas has won 7 of the past 9 meetings in this series since March 30, 2024. I’m betting the 3-way money line, backing the home team to win in regulation.
Wild vs Golden Knights prediction: Golden Knights 3-way ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145.
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The series shifts back to Los Angeles for Game 5 between the Kings and the Edmonton Oilers. There has been no shortage of goals to talk about after 4 games. The Kings went on the road and reminded everyone that they can’t win in those situations. They held third-period leads in both only to end up losing on each occasion. This may feel like a cause for concern, but as the old saying goes, you’re never in trouble until you lose a game at home.
The over opened at 6.5 and should stay at that number as we approach puck drop. The story of this series has been goaltending. We knew that Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner and/or Calvin Pickard would struggle, but not many people had L.A.’s Darcy Kuemper being worse than both. He’s not the only person to blame — his team has done him no favors — but he must elevate his game. We know how dominant Los Angeles is on home ice, so it’s hard to envision this critical showdown being a low-scoring event. We’ll continue to take the over in this series until one team convinces us that it can play defense.
Oilers vs Kings prediction: Over 6.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.
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Detroit Pistons ML over New York Knicks (+194)
Along with the Clippers vs Nuggets series, the one between the Pistons and Knicks has been one of the more entertaining in the first round of the postseason. The last 2 games went down the wire and they could have gone either way. The Pistons were very unlucky to lose Game 4 after a controversial ending in which a foul was not called on a three-point attempt as time expired. Now the series switches over to Madison Square Garden and I am of the opinion that this series is far from over.
Detroit has already won at MSG once in this series, plus they won both regular-season meetings there by 9 and 5 points. We are now entering uncharted territory for most of these Pistons players. You won’t find many Game 5 elimination scenarios on their resumes, but don’t let that discourage you from backing the road team. They led by 9 points in Game 1 and by as many as 16 in Game 4, both of which they lost due to a lack of experience playing in the big moment, but also because of some big shots hit down the stretch by KAT and others. The road team has gone on to win 3 of the 4 games in the series and I’m willing to risk it and take the Pistons to bring this series back to the Motor City.
Dennis Schroder over 10.5 points (-108)
Veteran players like Dennis Schroder and Tobias Harris are among the rare Pistons players with experience in games like these, so I expect their roles to expand significantly with the Pistons’ season on the line. Schroder has impressed in this series, averaging 13 points per game in just 28 minutes a night, contributing with some big shots when it matters the most. His defense on Jalen Brunson could also be a factor here, so don’t be surprised if he logs 30+ minutes tonight.
Since the 2015-16 season, Schroder has played in 7 elimination games and his averages read 17.3 points, 4.9 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game. He’s cleared this line in all 7 of those games, while against the Knicks he’s averaging 11.3 per game in the last 10 games head-to-head. In the sole win at MSG in Game 2 of this series, Schroder played a vital role alongside Cade Cunningham, scoring 20 points. I can’t see the Pistons surviving here without a solid performance from Schroder.
Tim Hardaway Jr. over 2.5 made threes (-125)
Tim Hardaway Jr. should be fired up to do well against his former team after that controversial no-call in the final moments of Game 4. Even the refs admitted in their report after the game that there was significant contact made and a foul should have been called, which would have put Hardaway Jr. on the line for 3 free throws with the Pistons down by just a single point. That ending shouldn’t stay in the mind of the 33-year-old for long though, and his team needs him to perform in Game 5 if they want to force a Game 6 here.
Apart from a sub-par performance in Game 2, Hardaway has been a reliable option for the Pistons in this series, scoring 19, 24 and 14 in the 3 other games. He’s cleared this line in all 3 of those games, and if it wasn’t for Game 2 his efficiency from three would be at 42% for the series. For his career, he’s played in 5 elimination games so far, with the most recent ones being in the NBA Finals last season against the Celtics. He’s scored 10+ points in 4 of those 5 games while averaging 2 made threes per game. I’m confident he can up that to 3 against a Knicks defense that’s struggled defending the three-ball all year long – they ranked just 25th in opponent three-point efficiency, allowing 36.6% of shots to go in.
Nikola Jokic over 29.5 points (-115)
There has been a clear trend so far in this series. If Nikola Jokic attempts at least 20 field goals, the Nuggets win. As a result, I expect the hosts to go to him early and often. He has been incredibly consistent scoring the ball too, not dropping below 50% from the field in any of the 4 games so far. What makes him so dangerous is that he has an array of ways in which he can do his scoring, whether it’s backing someone down, getting a floater off the dribble or stretching the floor and scoring from deep. The Clippers have not figured out how to slow Jokic down yet and that should not change in Game 5. If the reigning MVP stays aggressive in looking for his shots, he should be well on his way to a 30-point performance.
Bogdan Bogdanovic over 0.5 made threes (-135)
As the series has gone on, it seems like Bogdan Bogdanovic has gained more faith from the coaching staff. His 19 minutes in Game 4 was a high for him this series. In those minutes, the Clippers outscored the Nuggets by 22, so do not be surprised to see his minutes continue to rise. That should give him more than enough time to use one of the most effective weapons in his arsenal, his three-point shooting. While he has knocked down just 1 of his 7 attempts this series, he was a 36.3% shooter on the season from beyond the arc.
It feels like a matter of time before Bogdanovic rediscovers his touch from out there. The Nuggets have been one of the worst teams at defending the perimeter this postseason, allowing the Clippers to make 39% of their attempts. Look for Bogdanovic to chip in with his contribution here in Game 5.
Nikola Jokic to record a Triple-Double – Yes (+140)
Jokic has been consistently contributing with rebounds and assists in this series too. In fact, he has managed 2 triple-doubles in the series already. He also came just a rebound shy in one game and 2 assists shy in another. Ivica Zubac is exactly the type of big that allows Jokic to have great contribution on the glass himself. The Croatian hardly spaces the floor, leaving Jokic well-placed to battle in the paint and collect defensive rebounds. After a 21-rebound performance in Game 4, do not expect a major drop-off. The last outing was also the first in which he did not get double-digit assists this series, but with his usage likely remaining sky-high tonight, he should continue flirting with double-digits in this category too.
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