Parlays

Wednesday's college basketball parlay
Yesterday
Creighton Bluejays
Butler Bulldogs - NCAAB
Creighton @ Butler · Point Spread
Butler -2.5
Our Analysis

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The Creighton Bluejays will travel to Indianapolis on Wednesday night for a Big East Conference game against the Butler Bulldogs. This will be the last home game for the Bulldogs before they head to DePaul for their season finale. This is Creighton’s last game of the season before the Big East Tournament, and they will need to win the tourney if they want to make the big dance. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and I do not see them getting back on track here. Butler has a solid 10-6 record at home, and I expect them to finish off their regular season with a win here at home. As a result, I’ll be backing Butler to cover the 2.5-point spread.

Simply put, the Bulldogs have been playing better basketball than Creighton as of late. Butler is ranked 63rd nationally at Bart Torvik since February 1, compared to Creighton at #82. Butler’s 56th-ranked offense since February 1 should be able to be outscore a Creighton offense that is ranked just 100th nationally. Butler lost by just 4 points on the road at Creighton earlier in this season and I expect them to get revenge in the rematch.

Creighton vs Butler prediction: Butler -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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Texas Longhorns
Arkansas Razorbacks
Texas @ Arkansas · Point Spread
Texas +7.5
Our Analysis

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Following a 76-70 revenge win on the road over their in-state rivals on Saturday, the Texas Longhorns will travel to Fayetteville to play the Razorbacks on Wednesday night, on what will be Senior Night for Trevon Brazile and Nick Pringle. The win snapped a 2-game losing streak for Texas, which came on the heels of a 5-game win streak and 6 wins in 7 outings. On the other end, the Razorbacks were embarrassed by Florida in Gainesville on Saturday night, 111-77, surrendering 1.37 points per possession while scoring just 0.95 on their own. They ended the month of February at 5-2 SU.

This is a matchup between 2 of the country’s 10 most efficient offenses over the course of the season and the last month, leading to plenty of high-scoring games and overs for both teams. However, Texas has really slowed its pace of play lately, and I fell victim to that on Saturday in their meeting with Texas A&M as I held an over ticket that never had a chance. Arkansas plays with a similar pace to Texas A&M, so I have to imagine Sean Miller’s squad will continue its 10-game trend of playing to just 64 possessions per game (23rd percentile) – down from their season-long numbers just above 66.5 – in an attempt to control the amount of possessions in this game. 

In addition to similar offensive efficiency metrics, neither team is very good defensively and both are outside the top 240 in three-point rate. So, why is Arkansas laying north of 2 possessions in this one? Well, the Razorbacks have been a bet-on team in general at 19-10 ATS this season, but particularly at home and off losses. On the contrary, Texas is 16-12 ATS and boasts a 7-2 ATS record in true road games this year, so for my money, the ATS trends cancel out. 

Where Texas seems to have the edge in this matchup is through their ability to create quality looks, as the Longhorns are elite in their rim attacks against conference opponents, top-15 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and 2nd nationally in free throw rate. Moreover, they like to get Matas Vokiettaitis and Dailyn Swain plenty of paint touches as screen rollers or in post-ups. The Razorbacks aren’t exactly strong defensively in any of these areas, particularly on the defensive glass and in the paint – where they are in the 2nd percentile in second-chance points allowed per game and in the 7th percentile in paint points allowed per game. As a result, I lean to Texas to keep this game closer than the line suggests.

Texas vs Arkansas prediction: Texas +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7. 

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Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Saint Louis Billikens - NCAAB
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Louis · Game Totals
Under 156.5
Our Analysis

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As the season winds down its final week, the Atlantic 10 brings us a “first vs worst” matchup as the Saint Louis Billikens host the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. The Ramblers just snapped a 4-game losing streak, but they still sit in last place in the A10 standings. The Billikens, on the other hand, sit atop the standings, are undefeated at home, and are sitting just inside the Top 25. The spread in this game is understandably massive, and Saint Louis won the first meeting by 27 just a couple of weeks ago. Rather than play a large spread, though, I prefer the game total under 156.5.

This game is a clash in styles, to say the least. The Billikens play at a breakneck pace, They are also a top-40 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Whatever metric you want to look at, they seem to be way up near the top of it. Loyola, on the other hand, plays at a snail’s pace, and they are hovering around #300 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I have little doubt that Saint Louis will post a big score here, but it is hard to imagine the Ramblers can do enough to keep pace. This game could get to 90-65 and still not beat us, and that would represent an increase for both teams over the first matchup. If Saint Louis gets up that much, they also won’t be running as much late in the game. I’ll take the Under.

Loyola-Chicago vs Saint Louis prediction: Under 156.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 153.5.

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Oklahoma City Thunder
New York Knicks
Thunder vs Knicks Same Game Parlay
SGP
Money Line
NY Knicks Win
Player Threes Made
J. Brunson (NY) - Over 2.5 threes
Player Rebounds
C. Holmgren (OKC) - 8+ rebs

Thunder vs Knicks parlay pick: New York Knicks ML over OKC Thunder (+154)

SGA opted to sit last night’s OKC game at Chicago, and the Thunder still won by 8 points despite shooting 24% from three and getting outrebounded 53-51 on the glass. With the MVP back tonight, those types of numbers cannot happen again, and a team like the Knicks is far too experienced to lose a game when the opponent shoots like that. It’s been 7 games since the Thunder shot 50% from the field in a game, and with their 2nd-best player Jalen Williams sidelined, they’ll have to be on top of their game to beat the Knicks here. Unlike the Thunder, who are 3-7 SU in back-to-back scenarios this season, the Knicks have a winning record of 6-4 SU in 10 such games.

Brunson and company will be encouraged after yet another dominant win over the Toronto Raptors last night, as they cruised to a 4-game regular season sweep, 111-95. A big factor to consider here is the Knicks’ advantage in the rebounding department, where they rank 6th for rebounds allowed, compared to the Thunder, who are 25th. After seeing what the Knicks did to the Spurs last Sunday at home, I have a lot of trust in this team. SGA, Hartenstein and Ajay Mitchell are all questionable to play for OKC, while Williams is out. The Knicks are only without Miles Bridges, and their healthiness could give them the edge.

Thunder vs Knicks SGP pick: Jalen Brunson 3+ made threes (-115)

Big-time players make big-time plays, and that’s exactly what I’m expecting out of Jalen Brunson for Wednesday’s game. He was once again the Knicks’ high point man with 26 last night in the win over Toronto, and this team will only go as far as Brunson takes them. There’s no better test than playing the defending champions.

The 5 most recent meetings have seen Brunson average 27.4 points, and with him shooting the three-ball at a stable 38% this season, he should look to make the most out of OKC’s struggles defending the perimeter. The Thunder allow opponents to shoot 36.7% from downtown this season, and on the road that number rises to 37%. The Knicks will likely look to exploit all the flaws the Thunder have here. Brunson’s success rate clearing this line is at 53% this season (31/58 games), but over the past 10 outings, he’s done it 6 times. Let’s hope for a quality performance from him in a memorable win for the Knicks at MSG.

Thunder vs Knicks SGP pick: Chet Holmgren 8+ rebounds (-150)

I mentioned the disadvantage the Thunder have in the rebounding department here, and with Isaiah Hartenstein being questionable to play, it’ll once again be up to Chet Holmgren to keep the Knicks off the glass. Holmgren has had a couple of monster rebounding games lately, with the highlight being 21 rebounds against the Nuggets over the weekend. We’re seeing a different Chet following the all-star break – in 6 games since then, he’s averaging 12 boards per game, quite the improvement over the 9 per game he’s averaged before that.

With both teams playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back, I expect the defensive intensity to go up a notch, and I quite like Holmgren’s chances of getting 8 rebounds in a somewhat low-scoring game here. He’s cleared this line in 69% of games this season (38/55) and in 17 of 27 on the road (63%).

Wednesday's NHL parlay
Yesterday
Vegas Golden Knights
Detroit Red Wings
VGS Golden Knights @ DET Red Wings · Money Line
DET Red Wings Win
Our Analysis

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The Vegas Golden Knights continue their extended road trip on Wednesday night in Detroit with a matchup against the Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena. The Golden Knights are enduring a tough scheduling dynamic entering this contest, as they’ll be playing their 5th consecutive road game to start the post-Olympic schedule. In addition, Vegas is playing on the 2nd half of a road back-to-back after falling to the Sabres 3-2 in Buffalo on Tuesday night. The Vegas offense has stumbled coming out of the Olympic break. They managed to score 6 goals on February 25 against the Kings, but have scored just 4 total goals over their last 3 games. The Vegas goaltending situation also continues to be an issue. Adin Hill is slated to get the start between the pipes in this one, but his .858 save percentage and 3.47 goals-against average on the season don’t warrant much confidence that he will be able to slow down Dylan Larkin and company.

This game marks Detroit’s first home game since the Olympic break. Larkin is sure to get a large ovation before the game, and I expect Detroit’s captain to lead a spirited effort in this one. The Red Wings have been great at home all season long, owning a record of 18-10-2 in front of their home fans. The Red Wings also have the rest advantage in this matchup, as they haven’t played since Monday night. Even with goaltender John Gibson questionable to start in net, the Red Wings are the team to back in this matchup.

Golden Knights vs Red Wings prediction: Red Wings ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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Carolina Hurricanes
Vancouver Canucks
CAR Hurricanes @ VAN Canucks · Puck Line
CAR Hurricanes -1.5
Our Analysis

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The Carolina Hurricanes continue their road trip with a stop in Vancouver to face off against the Canucks. Carolina is coming off a 2-1 loss to Seattle a few nights ago, but prior to that, they had won 5 consecutive games. They generate the most shots on goal on the road, contributing to their status as a top-10 offensive team. Defensively, they are equally impressive, allowing just over 24 shots against per game. This strong defensive play has helped Brandon Bussi achieve a goals-against average of 2.23 and a save percentage of .906. On paper, the Hurricanes are the superior team by a significant margin, and this should be evident in tonight’s matchup.

The Canucks are currently vying for a lottery pick, and with the trade deadline just a couple of days away, we might see some additional players rested ahead of potential trades. They have allowed 5 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 games while struggling to score more than 2 goals themselves. As a below-average team, they will face a daunting challenge to keep pace with one of the league’s better teams. Once they fall behind, it becomes nearly impossible for them to mount a comeback. Expect the Hurricanes to secure a victory by multiple goals.

Hurricanes vs Canucks prediction: Hurricanes -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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New York Islanders
Anaheim Ducks
NY Islanders @ ANA Ducks · Money Line
NY Islanders Win
Our Analysis

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The New York Islanders will take on the Anaheim Ducks on Wednesday night. The Islanders come into this one winning all 3 games following the Olympic break. New York has been playing great hockey away from home as well. In their last 10 road games, they have won 7 times. The Islanders currently rank 4th in the Eastern Conference in away form with a record of 18-11-3. This winning form is thanks to incredible defense on the season. The Islanders are only giving up 2.74 goals per game and their goaltenders have a combined save percentage of .902, which ranks them 5th in the NHL. The Islanders also lead the league with 8 total shutouts.

As for the Ducks, they are coming off a brutal defeat by the Colorado Avalanche last night. It seemed that they were not able to get their offense together. That is not a good sign when going up against a tough defensive squad like the Islanders. On the season, the Ducks are averaging 3.25 goals per game but giving up 3.49 goals per game. These numbers make it surprising that they currently sit at 5th place in the Western Conference. Most of the issues for the Ducks come on the defensive end of the ice. They have allowed 42 power play goals and rank 24th in penalty kill percentage. Overall, the Islanders’ defense should be a tough match for the Ducks and I believe the better defensive play will lead to some scores. I am taking the Islanders to win.

Islanders vs Ducks prediction: Islanders ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Wednesday's NBA parlay
Yesterday
Utah Jazz
Philadelphia 76ers
UTA Jazz @ PHI 76ers · Point Spread
UTA Jazz +9.5
Our Analysis

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The Philadelphia 76ers will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back situation when they host the Utah Jazz on Wednesday night. Some comically bad basketball will likely be on display. However, it also presents a strong betting opportunity. After all, this iteration of the Sixers should not be giving 9.5 points to anyone. As such, my Jazz vs 76ers pick is for the visitors to cover. Philadelphia is coming off a disastrous 131-91 loss to San Antonio on Tuesday. Joel Embiid was already out with an oblique injury and Kelly Oubre Jr. missed Tuesday’s contest due to illness. VJ Edgecombe exited after just 6 minutes because of lower-back soreness. With no days off in between games, things are likely to get worse for Philly before they get better.

Meanwhile, Utah is without Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. However, that is nothing new for the Jazz; they are used to it. Other guys have been stepping up to keep this team competitive. That’s not to say that the Jazz are winning many games, but only twice in their last 13 have they lost by more than 11 points. Keyonte George is coming off a 36-point performance during a 128-125 setback against Denver on Monday. Ace Bailey has exceeded his season average (12.7 ppg) in 3 straight games and in 7 of the last 8. Give me Utah to keep this one close against what will likely be an undermanned and fatigued opponent.

Jazz vs 76ers prediction: Utah +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.

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Portland Trail Blazers
Memphis Grizzlies
POR Trail Blazers @ MEM Grizzlies · Point Spread
MEM Grizzlies +9.0
Our Analysis

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The Portland Trail Blazers were crushed 135-101 by the Hawks as a 6.5-point underdog, and they’ve dropped the past 2 games in Atlanta and in Charlotte by 16 or more points. The Blazers have lost 3 of their past 4 games outright, too. As a favorite, Portland has won and covered 4 of the past 5 games. However, as a favorite of 9 or more points, the Trail Blazers are 0-3 against the spread this season. The Blazers could again be without leading scorer Deni Avdija, who is nursing a lower back injury, and he is considered questionable. Shaedon Sharpe is once again out due to a stress reaction in his fibula, while Kris Murray is considered questionable due to illness.

For the Grizzlies, they just played on Tuesday night, and they lost 117-110 in Minnesota, but Memphis was able to cover as a 14.5-point underdog, its 3rd consecutive cover. Memphis is an impressive 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games, and 9-4 ATS across the previous 13 contests. That includes a 1-1 SU/ATS mark in a back-to-back set in Portland on Feb. 6-7. Let’s roll with the Grizzlies to keep it within single digits on its home floor. Portland hasn’t had a lot of success laying nearly double-digits against anybody this season, and that task becomes even harder if Avdija is ruled out again.

Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies prediction: Grizzlies +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.5.

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Atlanta Hawks
Milwaukee Bucks
ATL Hawks @ MIL Bucks · Point Spread
MIL Bucks -1.5
Our Analysis

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With 4 wins on the bounce, you’d think the Hawks are finally back to their late-November form, which got them to a 13-8 SU start to the season. However, with those 4 wins coming against the likes of Portland, Washington (twice) and Brooklyn, I would hold off on the praise until they beat someone more relevant. Wednesday’s opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks, are an ideal test for Jalen Johnson and company, as this game could have a major impact on who gets the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference. The 2 teams are separated by 4 games, but a potential Bucks win trims that down to 3 games and also decides the regular season series in their favor.

Pressure is building on the Bucks following their 3rd straight defeat. The hope of catching the play-in tournament is still alive, but just barely. The only thing keeping it going was the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has publicly said that he is not giving up on this season. The thing that should give the Bucks hope here is their home record against the Hawks, which reads 13 wins in 18 such games. After he scored just 19 points in his first game back against Boston, a lot more is expected out of Antetokounmpo here. The 8 most recent meetings have seen him average 29.4 points, 12.6 rebounds and 7 assists per game.

This is basically a do-or-die situation for the Bucks, and I am here for it. A win for the home team would be a massive morale boost for the remaining 20 or so games, and with their leader back and finally being healthy, I think they can pull it off at home. Atlanta is the definition of mediocrity this season — on the road they’re 15th in offensive rating and 13th in defensive rating, while having a negative Net Rating of –0.2 points. I’ll go with Giannis and his Bucks to pull off the win here.

Hawks vs Bucks prediction: Bucks -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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