Parlays

Friday night gives us a Big East battle between the Creighton Bluejays and the Providence Friars. Creighton is 5-2 in league play, but it is a battle almost every night. They narrowly survived Georgetown at home earlier in the week, winning by just 3. Providence has stumbled to a 1-5 start in the conference, although the schedule makers did them no favors by sending Villanova, UConn, and Seton Hall to them in the early going — home games the Friars dropped in each case. This could be another such spot, as Creighton is the far better team. Given that every road game in the Big East is tough, we don’t have to pay a huge premium, at least, so I will take Creighton -1.

We have conflicting styles here, as Providence plays at a top-20 pace on offense, while Creighton is a deliberate, slow-paced team. Typically, the slow team wins out in terms of game flow, and since Providence doesn’t create a lot of turnovers and Creighton doesn’t turn it over often, that will probably hold true here. Creighton also fires off a lot of 3s, and Providence does not defend those well. As long as Creighton doesn’t have an ice cold shooting night, that should be enough to make the difference in this game. Go with the Bluejays on the road to cover a short number.

Creighton vs Providence prediction: Creighton Bluejays -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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There aren’t many college basketball games on Friday, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any games that demand your attention. Headlining the small Friday hoops card is an awesome Big 12 matchup between the Baylor Bears and the Kansas Jayhawks, being played at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas. It will be the second straight home game for the Jayhawks after they put forth a dominant effort over previously-undefeated Iowa State on Tuesday, tallying 1.29 points per possession on 51.4% from two-point range and 50% from beyond the arc while holding the Cyclones to 0.97 points per possession and sub-40% from the field. Baylor also enters this contest off a victory after beating Oklahoma State 94-79 in Stillwater. The win ended a 3-game skid and represents the first conference win for the Bears, but now they face their second road game in as many outings — and in a venue in which they historically have struggled to find success. In fact, Baylor has just 1 win at The Phog in program history, which came back in January of 2020. 

In non-conference play, the Bears relied heavily on transition opportunities and points in the paint to spearhead their offense, but those opportunities have dried up in conference play in a big way. Baylor averaged almost 15 fast break points and 38 paint points against non-conference opponents, but those numbers have fallen to 5.5 and 26.5, respectively, in league play. The Bears’ struggles have permeated to the defensive end, as well, where they have fallen to the 36th percentile in defensive rating against Big 12 opponents. All things considered, this is not a good place to be heading to a venue in which they have had almost no success historically.

If the Bears can’t find easy buckets in transition or the paint, it’s going to be a long night for them. Assuming Kansas removes those options, Baylor will have to settle for mid-range shots and perimeter attempts off both kick-outs and the dribble, all of which the Jayhawks have shut down at a similar efficiency as their paint and transition defense against quality opponents. Playing their second straight road game, this time in one of the most intimidating venues in the country, I don’t trust Baylor to score enough to cover — much less to win the game. Rock Chalk.

Baylor vs Kansas prediction: Kansas -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.

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This is no misprint, the Rams are a 5.5-point underdog despite winning and covering their last 4 outings against the Broncos overall. That makes Colorado State look like the easy play here, right? Well, that’s the point. Add in the fact that CSU sits 11-6 overall while Boise sits a game over .500 and on a 4-game losing streak, and who wouldn’t want to back the Rams here? The oddsmakers are dangling bait and this is a quintessential example of that very idea.

If Boise State had any semblance of market credibility at all, they could easily be a double-digit favorite here. Their struggles overall and their toils against the Rams diminishes their stock. Thus, the Broncos are actually laying a shorter number than they probably should because, if they were a double-digit favorite, they would get virtually no action otherwise. With that being said, Colorado State has gotten a lot of looks on the money line as an outright winner. Who wouldn’t be tempted? Nearly 2-to-1 in a favorable matchup on paper against a team that lost to a D2 school back in November. We get it. But when something looks too good to be true, it almost certainly is. Boise State is favored here for a reason and by significant margins at that. If Colorado State was truly live, they wouldn’t be catching this many points. What is really an underlay on the Broncos makes the Rams today’s “sucker bet” of the day.

Colorado State vs Boise State prediction: Boise State Broncos -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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The play of Trey Murphy III has been exceptional over the past couple of weeks or so. His last 8 games have seen him average 28.3 points per game, shooting just under 53% from the field and 41% from three. He was one of the main reasons why the Pels won their last game against the Nets, but at this point, you have to wonder if what he is doing is actually being counter productive for New Orleans. It’s quite clear that the play-in tournament isn’t an option for this team, so a high pick in the draft is the way to go. By winning games the Pels are only risking dropping outside the top 3 in the draft lottery.

Indiana is in a similar boat actually, as they are sitting in 15th place in the Eastern Conference — although they too have shown signs of life lately. It would be smarter for them to just tank the rest of the year to land an elite draft prospect to pair with a healthy Tyrese Haliburton. We just saw their longest win streak of the season end on Wednesday, as the Raptors beat them 115-101. Prior to that, the Pacers won against Charlotte, Miami and Boston. They achieved that feat by playing extremely well on defense, so the question is can they do it against New Orleans on Friday?

I believe they can. Indiana has won 5 consecutive meetings at home against this team, plus they’ve covered in 4 of their last 5 overall. Trey Murphy III is their only concern, but I believe the likes of Siakam and co. will come up with a solid gameplan for him here. Take Indiana.

Pelicans vs Pacers prediction: Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The number here is most telling. Despite a much worse record, Brooklyn is still priced as the favorite at home. That’s not random — it’s a market signal that tonight’s matchup leans toward the team that is playing better basketball overall, not season-long power rating. Since December, Brooklyn has looked nothing like a team that should be 11-27, even if the record argues otherwise.

Brooklyn’s biggest edge is stylistic. They’re playing a game that translates well to any opponent: defending well, rebounding better, and winning small possession battles. The Nets have had recent blips in the rebounding department, but this is something that they have emphasized sorting out. Against a Chicago defense that is known for leaking extra looks and being outgunned in the paint, the match-up also translates well for the home team. If Brooklyn cleans up the boards, Chicago’s “extra possessions” disappear, along with their calling card of taking advantage of those situations.

Brooklyn mopped up Chicago as a 7.5-point underdog in December in a double-digit win, and while they have lost their last 5 outings overall, 3 of those contests were settled by 2 possessions or less. Flip those results towards Brooklyn’s favor and they are a much bigger favorite here. Nets roll.

Bulls vs Nets prediction: Brooklyn Nets -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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What we have here is another team on a skid, priced like its all a mirage. Space City is 2-5 SU in their last 7 contests and have not covered once over this span. Despite this, the Rockets are priced as a favorite here against a marketable underdog in the Timberwolves.

Houston is coming off a rough loss to OKC in which their offense stagnated and they shot poorly (33–34% overall, 29% from three). This was also a widely-covered game on PRIME, which means many eyes saw the plight of Houston and are prone to react here against another playoff-caliber opponent. However, the most important part of that game wasn’t the missed shots — it was that Houston stayed competitive until the fourth quarter, then unraveled due to poor offensive execution. That’s correctable, especially at home, where they are 12-3. The second edge is Minnesota’s roster status. Anthony Edwards is expected to miss another game, which is a huge loss in a tough road environment like the Toyota Center. Put it all together and this is a spot where Houston can get back on track, whether that be winning a game or cashing a tacket. We’re backing them to do both here.

Timberwolves vs Rockets prediction: Houston Rockets -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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The San Jose Sharks will take on the Detroit Red Wings Friday. The Sharks currently rank 7^th in the Western Conference, and they are in fantastic form — winning 7 of their last 9 games. They have also won 7 of their last 10 away from home. This is wild considering the Sharks ranked last in the entire NHL last season. Where I start to question this form is when we consider that the Sharks rank last in the NHL in shots on goal. They average only 25.3 shots per game, but 3.13 goals. This is incredible efficiency, but it may be tough to replicate against this Red Wings club.

The Red Wings currently rank 3^rd in the Eastern Conference and have won 4 of their last 5 games overall. Even more impressive, they have won 8 of their last 10 games in Detroit. The Red Wings currently rank 9^th in shots on goal and have a 24.3% power play scoring percentage. This could be good news against the Sharks, as they have given up 32 power play goals this season. On the other side of the puck, the Red Wings have only given up 10 goals over the past 5 games. This level of defense against a Sharks team that struggles to get shots is a recipe for success. Give me the Red Wings on the puck line.

Sharks vs Red Wings prediction: Detroit Red Wings -1.5 (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Carolina Hurricanes will host the Florida Panthers on Friday night. To add to their list of key injuries, the Panthers are without Seth Jones, who is currently sidelined, in addition to the already big losses of Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. They have still rattled off wins without them, but going up against a very solid team in the Hurricanes is going to be a difficult task. The Hurricanes are 8^th in goals for, 12^th in goals against and they put the 2nd-most shots on goal per game of any team in the league. On the flip side of that, they also limit their opponents to the fewest shots on goal per game of any team. Their relentless forecheck tends to wear down opposing teams. They are a very good home team, as their record is 16-8-1 at the Lenovo Center.

This is a potential first or second round playoff matchup, and I expect the Hurricanes to treat it as such. Their forward depth will give them the edge in this game and allow them to get it done. Give me the Hurricanes in this one.

Panthers vs. Hurricanes prediction: Carolina Hurricanes ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Tampa Bay Lightning are on absolute tear right now. The Bolts enter Friday’s matchup against the Blues riding an 11-game win streak, with 7 of those wins coming on the road. Tampa Bay also beat St. Louis during this streak back on December 22 by a score of 4-1. Tampa Bay’s current streak has propelled it to the top of the Atlantic division with 64 points, and it hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down. The offense is rolling, and the Lightning have held their opponents to just 6 total goals over their last 4 games.

The Blues have struggled to score goals on a consistent basis all season long. In fact, their 2.49 goals per game rank dead last in the league. St. Louis’ offensive woes got even worse on Thursday when it was announced that Robert Thomas was placed on IR with a lower-body injury. Thomas leads the Blues in points (34) and is tied for the team lead in goals (11). Needless to say, his absence will be tough for the Blues to overcome — especially against a red-hot team like the Lightning. Take confidence backing the Lightning to find the win column.

Lightning vs Blues prediction: Tampa Bay ML (-185) available at time of publishing. Playable to -195.

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Cleveland looks to deliver the knock-out punch on Friday night as they meet the Philadelphia 76ers for the 2nd consecutive game, just 48 hours after their dominant 133-107 win. The lead grew up to 30 points in that game, which just highlights how well the Cavaliers handled their business. Can they do it again? Donovan Mitchell certainly thinks they can. He has been on a tear against this team, scoring over 30 points in 3 consecutive meetings. Cleveland has won 6 of 9 games overall, they are also 5-1 SU in 6 meetings vs Philadelphia.

Tyrese Maxey was a massive letdown in Wednesday’s game, scoring just 14 points on 5-for-16 shooting. The Sixers just got outplayed in every single area of play, the Cavs recorded 19 more assists and 10 more rebounds .Teams tend to respond after big losses usually, especially in these so called baseball series. But, I am of the opinion that this game is Cleveland’s to lose. They probably won’t dominate by 30 points like they did on Wednesday, but the inside out combination of Mitchell and a healthy Garland should give them the edge over the 76ers backcourt. I’ll go with the Cavs to win outright.

What is going on with the Houston Rockets? That’s what people are wondering following last night’s tough home loss to Oklahoma City where they got smashed 111-91. It was their 4th loss in 5 games, they’ve completely compromised all the good things they’ve done earlier this season by winning just 7 of 15 games. Friday sees them take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, not ideal in a back-to-back scenario considering they’ve lost all 3 games with no rest this season. Teams that beat them in those 3 games were Utah, Dallas and Sacramento, not exactly top tier opponents

Minnesota has been in far better shape lately. Their last 15 games have seen them go 10-5 SU, which is actually the 2nd best record in the league during this stretch (tied with 5 other teams). Ant Man and Julius Randle have been playing extremely well, one of those two is definitely making it to the All-Star game. Edwards got the night off vs Milwaukee the other day and it didn’t matter – the T’Wolves still thrashed Giannis and co. 139-106 on the road. With him coming back and Minnesota being 12-3 SU in 15 meetings and also covering in 12 of 18 games head-to-head, I am more than willing to back Minny to win outright here.

For only the 3rd time this season the Sacramento Kings head into a game as the favorite to win, according to the oddsmakers. Winning 3 games in a row vs Playoff teams will do that to you, even if you are just 11-30 SU for the season. The Kings have upped their level of play dramatically during this stretch and nobody can figure out how. It’s basically the same team that played all year long, with both Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray both still out injured. Perhaps the chemistry between all the veterans on the team is finally working? Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in 5 outings.

The same can definitely not be said about the Washington Wizards who are just 1-5 ATS/SU in their last 6 games, showing no desire to win whatsoever. It makes way more sense for this team to tank the remainder of the year and hope for a high pick in the draft and just reset starting next season. They acquired Trae Young who is yet to make his Wizards debut, rumor has it he might not even play at all this season. There is no hope for the Wizards here, go with Sacramento.

Many pontificators in the betting world thought the Jaguars would successfully move on to the Divisional Round, anchored by Liam Coen and their new-look defense. That never came to be. Instead, Buffalo secured their first road playoff win since 1992, led by more heroic efforts from Josh Allen. The esteemed Bills quarterback seemed to injure his knee and throwing hand on the same drive early in the game, but that didn’t stop him from accruing 306 total yards and 3 total touchdowns. When it mattered, Trevor Lawrence threw 2 key interceptions, one on the final drive, to seal the Buffalo victory. 

As usual, the Allen-led offense was more than effective, answering the call whenever needed. On the other hand, the Bills’ defense played good, not great, only a few times making stops when it mattered. Not ideal was that Jacksonville went 5-9 on 3rd downs and 3-4 in the red zone. In truth, if it wasn’t for Lawrence’s 2 interceptions, the final result might’ve been different. As usual, the onus of Buffalo’s future will remain with Allen and his ability, since we suspect their defense will continue to allow plenty of production from opponents. The Bills will face a much greater challenge this coming Saturday, up in elevation in Denver against a Broncos squad that knows how to win and will be coming off extended rest.

Denver is statistically the opposite of Buffalo. They can rely on their defense, a group that’s top-5 in nearly every metric (including a 1st-place ranking in opponent yards per game, 278.2), but their offense seems to only come alive when they need it. Bo Nix and his colleagues mostly present average to below average marks, particularly in yards per pass, where they generate just 6.4 (29th). This is true even though they own one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, permitting a sack on just 3.62% of plays (2nd overall). The good news for Denver is that they are good under pressure, averaging 7.7 points in the 4th quarter and successfully completing 5 4th-quarter comebacks this season. Of course, Josh Allen and the Bills are also pretty good in this category, too, averaging 9.2 4th-quarter points and earning a few 4th-quarter comebacks themselves.

We’re pretty certain this game will come down to the final drive. Since one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks will be facing one of the NFL’s best defenses, that makes this matchup all the more difficult to predict. At face value, the more rested team at home is generally the side to go with, especially considering their prowess on defense. Personally, we’d love to see Buffalo win, but the intangibles favor Denver.

Bills vs Broncos prediction: Broncos +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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If you watched last week‘s game between the 49ers and the Eagles, it wasn’t completely surprising to see the result. Since Brock Purdy has returned as the 49ers’ starting quarterback, their offense has been humming, right up there with the best passing operations in the NFL. Despite throwing 2 interceptions, Purdy was ice cold when it mattered most, going 6-11 on third downs and engineering 13 fourth-quarter points against one of the NFL’s best defenses. Perhaps most impressive about San Francisco’s production was that they only possessed the ball for 24 minutes. 

The Niners defense played well, but some of that is more on Philadelphia’s lackluster offense. The Eagles’ offensive operation has been pedestrian for most of the season, so it wasn’t surprising to see them stumbling through the second half, earning just 6 points and 104 yards in the final 2 quarters. Credit should be given to Robert Saleh and his roster, but we’re also not sure if it’s sustainable. That’s particularly true this weekend.

The Seahawks enter the divisional round off extended rest, and they will host their first playoff game Saturday night. The dominance of their defense has been well documented, completely obliterating San Francisco in their last matchup in Week 18 (they held Brock Purdy and company to just 3 points and 173 yards). Offensively, they left plenty on the field, garnering just 13 points themselves. Most impressively, they ran for 180 yards on 4.6 yards per carry, and completely controlled time of possession because of it (37:48 to 22:12). Their passing attack wasn’t that explosive, but Sam Darnold was efficient (20-26, 198 yards) and the game never felt within reach for the visiting Niners. 

While the rematch might not look the exact same, we are expecting a similar result. San Francisco’s impressive victory last Sunday came at the cost of George Kittle, their all-pro tight end who’s as crucial in blocking as he is in the pass catcher. He tore his Achilles and will be out for the remainder of the season, yet another big loss to a roster that’s been severely beaten up this year. Add to the fact that San Francisco will only have 6 days to prepare for battle after a very physical matchup in the wildcard round and it’s hard not to imagine a Seattle blowout.

49ers vs Seahawks prediction: Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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Houston heads to the northeast for a second straight week after knocking out Pittsburgh in Monday’s Wild Card round, 30-6. The Texans cashed as 2.5-point favorites after opening things up in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Steelers, 23-0 to break away from a 7-6 advantage. Now, the Texans are flipped to a short underdog against the AFC East champion Patriots, who also pulled away late from the Chargers in a 16-3 triumph. New England led Los Angeles, 6-3 at the half until QB Drake Maye hooked up with former Charger Hunter Henry for the game’s lone TD in the fourth quarter to send L.A. to 0-3 in the playoffs with Justin Herbert at QB.

We’ll see if New England’s offense can score on Houston’s defense, which led the NFL in yards allowed per game (277.2) and gave up 183.5 passing yards per contest. The Patriots posted a solid 12-5 ATS mark in the regular season, followed up by the cover as 3.5-point favorites over the Chargers. Houston picked up its 10th straight win against Pittsburgh since losing to eventual AFC top-seed Denver at home in Week 9. The Texans have won and covered in the past 4 opportunities in the underdog role, including victories over the Chargers, Bills, and Chiefs.

Houston routed New England last season 41-21 at Gillette Stadium, as Maye threw for 243 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. Texans QB C.J. Stroud looks to overcome his 5 fumbles against the Steelers, as he posted at least 240 passing yards in 3 of 4 road games since returning from his concussion in November. The Patriots have won 11 consecutive games as a favorite since getting stunned in the season opener by the Raiders. Houston’s defense has been exceptional this season and as long as Stroud can hold onto the ball, the Texans are a strong look here as an underdog.

Texans vs Patriots prediction: Houston Texans +3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Four of 6 road teams won during NFL Wild Card weekend, starting with the Rams’ 34-31 victory at Carolina. Although Los Angeles failed to cover as 10.5-point road favorites, the Rams avenged a 31-28 defeat to the Panthers from late November. Los Angeles squandered an early 14-0 lead, but QB Matthew Stafford hit TE Colby Parkinson for the go-ahead score in the final minute, marking the 4th lead change in the final quarter. The Rams travel to frigid Chicago on Sunday night, where temperatures are expected to be below 20 degrees during the day and around 6 degrees at night.

Chicago rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit to stun Green Bay 31-27 for the franchise’s first playoff win since 2010. The Bears scored 25 points in the fourth quarter, highlighted by a pair of TD passes from QB Caleb Williams in his playoff debut. The former top pick finished with 361 passing yards and 2 TDs, marking his first 300+ yard passing performance of the season. Chicago somehow came back in spite of not creating a takeaway after leading the league at +22 in turnovers in the regular season. The Bears have won 7 of their last 8 games at Soldier Field since falling apart in the season-opening defeat to the Vikings.

For the 2nd straight week, the Bears are listed as a home underdog and the Rams are a road favorite. LA posted a 5-2 ATS mark as a road favorite, including the blowout of Jacksonville in London. The 2 non-covers came as a favorite of more than a TD in losses to Atlanta and Carolina, but all 5 covers came by at least 10 points. The Bears have put together an 8-2 ATS record in the role of a dog, including a 2-0 ATS mark at home. The Rams aren’t used to the cold, but let’s back the road favorite here to advance to the NFC Championship.

Rams vs Bears prediction: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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