Parlays

Colorado’s path to competitiveness on the road is narrow against Baylor’s home leverage. The Buffs are 1-4 SU outside of Boulder while the Bears are 8-4 SU in Waco. The most important angle isn’t raw offense/defense rankings, it’s how Baylor stresses defensive structure. Baylor’s best trait is forcing opponents to guard multiple actions in a single possession. At home, those sequences are more reliable because communication and timing become even more stressed for the visitor. That is extremely disconcerting for a Colorado team that allows opponents to hit 45% of their attempts (312th nationally) and gives up nearly 80 points per game.

Colorado can absolutely score, but how do they stop Baylor? And moreover, the Bears have shown ability to clamp down defensively. Baylor’s physicality challenges Colorado’s finesse and if CU has to work for points, it will innately throw them off their game. The best part here is that we don’t require a blowout for Baylor to cash, even if the recipe for the Bears if executed can result in a double-digit win for the home team. On average, Colorado loses by nearly 10 points and we are being asked to spot a fraction of that with the superior side. Lay the points and don’t look back.

Colorado vs Baylor prediction: Baylor -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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Oklahoma’s dreaded stretch of losing continued on Saturday with a 79-69 loss to rival Texas, as the Sooners connected on fewer than 50% of two-point attempts, just 32% of three-point attempts and only 63% of free throws. The loss represented Oklahoma’s 8th in row, now sitting just 1-8 in SEC play after winning their first conference game against Ole Miss. The Sooners hope to break the streak on the road in Lexington against the Kentucky Wildcats, but that won’t be easy, as the ‘Cats are 6-1 in their last 5 games – including wins over Tennessee, Texas and Arkansas. 

While Kentucky is playing much better than Oklahoma of late, I don’t love this spot for the Wildcats. They are off a win over Arkansas, and they have games against Tennessee and Florida on deck. How much motivation is there to win by margin in this game? After all, the Wildcats haven’t exactly been profitable ATS against SEC opponents, covering the spread in just 3 of 9 conference games. As a favorite in conference, Kentucky is just 1-4 ATS. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is desperate for a win in conference. The Sooners might be just 1-8 in SEC play, but they’ve been fairly competitive in a vast majority of those 8 losses. In fact, only 2 of them were by more than 10 points. This number feels inflated given Kentucky’s name recognition, so I lean to taking the points with the underdog. 

Oklahoma vs Kentucky prediction: Oklahoma Sooners +10 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at number or better. 

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Many will tell you that Villanova is the right side because this matchup is fundamentally about the Wildcats owning the Pirates. Nova has won9 of the last 10 meetings and tacked victories in 4 straight. Naturally, the market will lean towards the Cats even when the spot positions them to be overvalued. In addition, the Cats grade significantly better across key metrics such as NET and KenPom. That’s all well and good because those ratings are built on repeatable outcomes, not noise. But the fact that the market’s perception doesn’t align with them should tell Villanova backers to think twice. The earlier meeting is instructive too: Villanova beat Seton Hall on its own floor by 12 in December. Seeing Nova priced as a shorter favorite makes them look easy here. But again, these points are all warnings that a different Seton Hall team is coming to Philadelphia.

Seton Hall can defend well and that translates to when the rubber hits the road. That’s why Hall has played winning basketball in away games, this season. The Pirates’ identity is physicality, length, and defensive disruption. They don’t need clean offense to stay attached; they shrink games. That’s key.  Seton Hall has the wherewithal to drag Villanova out into the deep end and we know we can expect a full two halves from the Pirates who are sick of being bullied by the Wildcats. Take away recent results and the Pirates are taking back less than two possessions here. Instead, we get a motivated underdog who can keep things tight taking back an enhanced number.

Seton Hall vs Villanova prediction: Seton Hall +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs will add another chapter to their 2025-26 rivalry when they meet again in San Antonio on Wednesday night. Oklahoma City won the most recent encounter at home on January 13, but the Spurs still lead the head-to-head series this season 3-1 — including a victory in the NBA Cup semifinals. The last time these 2 powerhouses squared off in San Antonio, Victor Wembanyama and company cruised 130-110 on December 23. With home-court advantage against an opponent that has cooled off a bit of late, San Antonio is the way to go in my Thunder vs Spurs pick.

OKC (40-11) is still the best team in the NBA, of course, but it is just 3-4 in its last 7 outings and 5-5 in its last 10. Jalen Williams (16.8 ppg, 5.6 apg, 4.8 rpg) is expected to miss his ninth consecutive contest due to a hamstring injury. As if all of that isn’t enough, the Thunder are playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation (they beat Orlando on Tuesday). The Spurs may not be completely on fire, either, but they are a respectable 6-3 in their last 9 games and have lost at home only once since January 3. San Antonio has great value as a slight underdog, and it should probably even prevail outright on Wednesday night.

Thunder vs Spurs prediction: San Antonio -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to pick ’em.

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It’s hard to pass on the Knicks right now, they are white hot. But this is less about the Knicks being on a tear and more about how they’re winning right now. New York’s recent surge has been built on two things that translate a great opportunity to cash in here. First, they’re defending without fouling and secondly, they’re finishing possessions cleanly. Both are pivotal. The Knicks don’t give away free points and they don’t leave many points on the table. That puts the pressure on Denver, if they want to compete here, let alone cover.

The other angle is market expectation. New York laying this many points against a team of the Nuggets’ profile may seem a bit ludicrous. But while the instinct is to fade inflated numbers, sometimes the number being so large is telling. Here it says the Knicks are the superior team. Denver can absolutely win, but on the road, if their margin is built on offense first, their only hope is to get stuck trading baskets. New York’s current form allows them to create separation by default because the Knicks give away less points and make the most of the chances they are given. That’s a script for a cover here. New York is the call here.

Nuggets vs Knicks prediction: Knicks -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

Fresh off their impressive win in Dallas, Jaylen Brown and his Celtics continue their tour of Texas as they take on the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night. Boston will be looking to get revenge for a blowout loss suffered at the hands of the Rockets back in early November, it finished 128-101 in favor Houston. Whether or not the newest Celtic Nikola Vucevic makes his debut in this game remains to be seen, his ability to impact the scoring both on the inside and outside would definitely be of use against a team like the Rockets.

Houston is also on a 3-game win streak, just like their opponent. And just like their opponent all three teams they beat have losing records, so this stretch of wins shouldn’t come as a surprise. Kevin Durant decided to skip the Indiana game with an ankle issue, although he’s listed as day-to-day ahead of Wednesday’s game, chances are very high he will be able to suit up here. That’s massive for the Rockets who have had their fair share of bad luck on the injury front. They’ve coped well with the absence of Steven Adams, but I’m interested to see if they can continue doing so once the schedule gets a bit tougher.

Houston has been one of the better three-point defending teams in the NBA, however they’ve slipped in their last 3 games allowing teams to shoot 38.6% from distance which is an increase of almost 4% compared to their season average. As we all know the Celtics rely heavily on that shot, if they can get it going I can see them keeping things close or even pulling off the upset here. Boston is also 5-3 SU in 8 games when playing with no rest, plus in head-to-head meetings they’re 8-3 SU in 11 games played. I’ll give the Cs the benefit of the doubt and back them to cover.

Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets Predictions: Celtics +5.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Red Wings are set to battle the Utah Mammoth on Wednesday night at Delta Center. It will be the second and final meeting of the season between these teams, with the Mammoth winning the first meeting 4-1 back on December 17. While that game stayed under the total, this one could be a different story. The Mammoth are rolling offensively right now, as they’re averaging 4.0 goals per game over their last 10 games. Furthermore, they’ve potted 16 total goals over their last 4 contests. The Red Wings are coming off back-to-back hard fought games against the Avalanche, so it’s possible their defensive structure isn’t as strong in this one. Utah has found plenty of scoring success at home this season, ranking 8th in the NHL averaging 3.50 goals per game on home ice. Look for the Mammoth to take advantage of their opportunities.

The Detroit power play has been great all season long, ranking 6th in the NHL with a 25.8% conversion rate. They have now gone 5 straight games without a power play goal, but Patrick Kane and company could have a favorable matchup against a Utah penalty kill that has been fairly middle of the road this season. The Mammoth have allowed multiple power play goals in 4 of their last 7 games, so this could be the perfect opportunity for the Red Wings to get back on track on the man advantage. Look for this one to go over the listed total of 6.

Red Wings vs Mammoth prediction: Over 6 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The St. Louis Blues have given the Stars all they can handle in their previous 3 meetings this season. St. Louis defeated Dallas 3-1 back on October 18, and then lost 3-2 and 4-3 in their 2 meetings in January. As tough as they’ve played the Stars so far this season, it’s tough to trust the Blues in this matchup. St. Louis has dropped 7 of its last 8 games and has allowed a whopping 4.4 goals per game in that stretch. That follows a similar theme for Jim Montgomery’s squad, as they rank 30th in the NHL allowing 3.48 goals per game. That’s not exactly the formula needed to defeat Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, and Wyatt Johnston. The Stars have arguably the best forward depth in the league, and they are more than capable of making life difficult for the Blues.

Dallas enters this matchup on a heater. The Stars have rattled off 5 straight wins, with 2 of those wins coming against the Blues. St. Louis is among the lowest-scoring teams in the NHL, and they simply don’t boast the same offensive firepower that Dallas does. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has made light work of the Blues in his career. In 10 career games against St. Louis, Oettinger owns a stellar 8-2-0 record to go along with a .933 save percentage and 1.77 goals-against average. Combine Oettinger’s St. Louis dominance and Dallas’ explosive offense, and this could be a long night for the Blues. Take confidence backing the Stars to take care of business in regulation by backing them on the 3-way moneyline.

Blues vs Stars prediction: Stars 3-Way ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

The Boston Bruins will take on the Florida Panthers Wednesday night. The Bruins are coming off a brutal loss where they gave up a 5-1 lead against the Tampa Bay Lightning and lost in penalty shots. The Bruins played very well in that game which has been normal for them recently. They have won 4 of their last 6 overall with both losses coming in extra time. The Bruins have also scored 21 goals over their last 5 games boosting their average to 3.38 goals per game on the season. I imagine the Bruins come into this one fired up with intentions to avenge their recent loss.

For the Panthers, they have dropped 4 straight games. In that span, they have been outscored 16 to 11. The Panthers struggles have been persistent at home where they have lost 8 of their last 10 games. Part of this slide for the Panthers could be due to the increasing amount of penalties they give up. On the season, they rank 2^nd in opponent power plays, only behind the Bruins. The difference for these teams is that the Bruins power play ranks 3^rd in the NHL while the Panthers power play ranks 21^st. I think penalties will play a major role in this one and I trust the Bruins power play more than the Panthers. Overall, the Bruins are in better form, and I am taking them on the money line.

Bruins vs. Panthers Prediction: Bruins ML (+120) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.