Parlays

Coming off its most impressive win of the season, No. 1 Duke shifts its focus to Notre Dame on Tuesday night. The Blue Devils took down then-No. 1 Michigan on Saturday by dominating inside, outscoring the Wolverines 34-24 in the paint and holding a 41-28 edge on the glass. Duke also grabbed 13 offensive rebounds, giving the Blue Devils a major edge in second-chance opportunities, and they’ll look to control the glass once again against a Fighting Irish team that allows opponents to shoot 43.5% from the floor this season.  

Notre Dame is coming off a 73-68 loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday, where they struggled from beyond the arc, knocking down just 9 of their 38 three-point attempts. The Fighting Irish will also be without two of their top scorers, Jalen Haralson and Markus Burton. Cole Certa has stepped up in their absence, but Notre Dame won’t have the depth or talent to keep pace with Cameron Boozer, Isaiah Evans, and Patrick Ngongba II. The Blue Devils have just proven they deserve to be the No.1 team in the nation, and this matchup sets up perfectly for them to assert their dominance once again. Duke should control the boards, limit Notre Dame’s perimeter shooting, and apply constant defensive pressure. With the Fighting Irish shorthanded and struggling offensively, I expect the Blue Devils to roll on the road. 

Duke vs Notre Dame prediction: Duke -17.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Perception is built on contrast in records and location, but the matchup context suggests the gap may be overstated. Indiana is a strong home team (13-2 SU in Bloomington), yet the spread assumes IU will create clean separation against a Northwestern group (who has only won two games on the road) that plays a very specific style: low turnover, half-court execution, and possession control. The Wildcats rank among the best nationally at taking care of the ball, which is a critical trait for underdogs trying to stay within range.

The situational angle also favors the points. Indiana is coming off a lopsided loss to Purdue, and teams in bounce-back spots often focus first on stabilizing rather than extending margin. Meanwhile, Northwestern enters off a confidence-building win over Maryland, shooting efficiently and sharing the ball well, a sign their offense is capable of functioning when the pace is controlled. There’s also a mathematical element. With the total around 147, this projects as a moderate-scoring Big Ten game. This kind of environment naturally favors underdogs because each trip carries more weight and long scoring runs are harder to generate. Indiana will likely win, but covering here requires sustained separation. Northwestern’s ball security and discipline make that a tough ask, so let’s take the Wildcats on the road.

Northwestern vs Indiana prediction: Northwestern +9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In the midst of a 3-game losing streak, the USC Trojans will make the short trip across town to play their rival UCLA Bruins on Tuesday. Saturday’s outing was tough for USC, as they scored just 1 point per possession on 41.5% from two-point range and 31.6% from beyond the arc in a 71-70 home loss to Oregon. However, they won the offensive rebounding battle and the turnover battle, which does inspire some confidence ahead of this matchup. 

Meanwhile, UCLA comes into this contest off a massive overtime win over Illinois in which the Bruins trailed by as many as 22 in the first half. They held the Illini to just 31% on their 42 perimeter attempts and turned the ball over just 5 times, but they gave up 20 offensive rebounds and sent Illinois to the line 31 times. 

With Chad Baker-Mazara back in the mix, the Trojans are as healthy as they’ve been in a couple weeks, and they’re in a role in which they have excelled of late. USC is 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season, covering in 6 of their last 7 in his role – including 4 of their last 4 on the road. Much of that success is due to their ability to crash the offensive glass and produce second-chance points, where they sit in the 96th percentile in their last 5 games. It also is due to their ability to get to the free throw line at an elite rate, as they rank 3rd nationally in free throw rate. Those are both areas of weakness for UCLA; the Bruins are 17th in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding rate allowed and 12th in opposing free throw rate. 

Coming off 3 straight games against top-10 opponents and their win of the year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bruins come out flat on Tuesday. I struggle to trust the Bruins in the favorite role anyway, as they are in the 5th percentile nationally in defensive rating over their last 5 games and 1-4 as a home favorite since the turn of the calendar year. Give me USC and the points. 

USC vs UCLA best bet: USC Trojans +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5. 

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Even with Oklahoma City’s injuries, the number still looks off. The team with the best record in the NBA and the defending champs taking back a tag against anyone, say what? The setup however, favors Toronto. The Raptors identity is rooted in physical defense and possession pressure. That approach is the perfect recipe for the Thunder who are missing key playmakers like Chet Holmgren and SGA. The Dinos excel at turning games into long, half-court sequences where every trip has to be earned. That matters greatly against Oklahoma City, a team that thrives when it can play with rhythm and advantage spacing who once again we reiterate is short-handed. If the Raptors keep the Thunder out of sync, shot quality becomes harder to generate. In a hostile setting like Toronto, this can be magnified.

The total sitting in the mid-210s reinforces the script. Lower-scoring environments favor the home team because each possession carries more weight and the emotional intangibles of playing at home can be pivotal in the late stages of the contest. Moreover, Toronto’s defensive discipline and rebounding give them multiple ways to win in what forecasts to be a competitive affair. However, whether it actually plays out that way is another story. The set-up is for Toronto to make a statement in the Great White North.

Thunder vs Raptors prediction: Raptors -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The 15-point loss to Detroit proved to be a wake-up call for the New York Knicks who have responded with back-to-back wins over the Rockets and Bulls. Facing the rejuvenated Cavaliers on Tuesday will be another tough task, but having won both meetings earlier this season the Knicks will come prepared. This will be only their 10th time this as an underdog, despite winning 6 of 7 on the road and 12 of 15 overall. Since the break their three-point defense has improved quite a fair bit – opponents have made only 35.7% of threes in the 3 games played, compared to 38.5% going into the All-Star break. Michell Robinson being healthy and playing is also a big deal ahead of this game, the Knicks will need a strong performance from him against the likes of Jarrett Allen and co. down low.

Losing to the shorthanded OKC Thunder on Sunday wasn’t the best of looks for James Harden and his new team. The Cavaliers win streak was snapped at 7 in a row, they led in that game for only 3% of play time according to ESPN’s stats and info. Performances like that aren’t shouldn’t come as a surprise for a team that’s completely re-shifted its offense mid-season adding a dynamic player at the point guard position. With Harden at the helm the offensive rating has gone up to 124.8 points per 100 possessions, from 118.1 points before the trade went down. However, scoring on the Knicks could prove to be difficult, they are the 4th best defense in terms of paint points allowed.

Tuesday’s game is a big one with the 3rd seed in the East on the line, so I expect both teams to be locked in. Despite the massive improvement offensively by the Cavs, I am still not sold on them. New York has everyone ready and available, they’re the more battle tested team when it comes to pressure situations. Ultimately, I’ll lean towards the Knicks here.

Knicks vs Cavaliers prediction: Knicks +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Orlando Magic enter this matchup playing competitive basketball, hovering around the playoff picture while averaging roughly 115 points per game. Orlando has shown flashes offensively, particularly when their perimeter shots are falling, and they’ve picked up quality wins in recent weeks. However, consistency remains an issue, especially on the road. The Magic can struggle in half court sets against teams that switch effectively and protect the rim, and their defensive efficiency sits closer to league average. Against elite offensive talent, they’ve had difficulty sustaining four strong quarters, particularly when opponents push tempo and attack early in the shot clock. They had a big road win last game against the Clippers, but I do not think they can pull off an upset in back to back games.

The Los Angeles Lakers are coming off a disappointing home loss to Boston, a game where their offense sputtered and defensive rotations lagged. Expect a focused response. The Lakers average nearly 116 points per game and remains one of the more dangerous offensive teams when their stars are clicking. Playing at home after an embarrassing defeat sets up as a strong bounce back spot. Overall, Los Angeles needs to grab wins as favorites when the opportunities present themselves because they have not won a game since Christmas as an underdog. While Orlando is capable of keeping games competitive, the Lakers’ scoring depth and urgency should create separation in the second half. Laying a modest number at home feels justified in this spot.

Magic vs Lakers prediction: Lakers -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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