Parlays

The San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles finish a series on Sunday afternoon after splitting the first 2 games. Both teams are middling around, just below the .500 mark on the season. Neither lineup has been all that potent so far, as both check in in the bottom third of the league and well under 4 runs per game. We have a pair of sluggish offenses, an afternoon start and cool-ish conditions. That all sounds like an under to me.

On the mound are Adrian Houser and Cade Povich. Neither pitcher is all that exciting, but both tend to be effective enough. The Giants hit lefties well, which gives them a good chance against the southpaw Povich, but even then, it is hard to trust the Giants to put up many runs. The Orioles seem a little thin these days on offense, at least if you can navigate the top two or three hitters. These teams will have better stretches on offense this season, but right now, I am happy to fade them. Give me the game total under 8.5.

Giants vs Orioles prediction: Under 8.5 (-120) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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It’s Sunday rubber match time as the Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue jays look to secure a series win. However, Toronto will be without a key piece; designated hitter George Springer is sidelined after fracturing his toe on a foul ball. Taking the mound for the Twins will be Taj Bradley, who’s been dominant in his first 3 starts — entering with a 2-0 record and a 1.08 ERA. He’s struck out 22 batters while issuing just 4 walks over 16.2 innings. For the Blue Jays, veteran Max Scherzer will get the nod, entering with a 1-1 record and a 3.38 ERA across 2 starts this season. 

Offensively, Toronto is hitting .235 on the season and averaging 3.9 runs per game, while Minnesota is batting .224 but producing 4.7 runs per game. The Twins also have a couple of bats like Austin Martin (.375) and Josh Bell (.348 with a home run and 5 RBIs) heating up over their last 7 games. For Toronto, Bradley will need to navigate around Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as well as Ernie Clement, who have been hot over their last 6 games.

Neither bullpen inspires much confidence, with Toronto holding a 5.20 ERA and Minnesota sitting at 5.23. The difference in this matchup comes from the starting pitching, where the Twins have the edge. With Bradley dealing to start the season and the Twins getting more consistent production at the plate, Minnesota should be able to take care of business on the road and secure the series win. 

Twins vs Blue Jays prediction: Minnesota Twins ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Jose Soriano is the X-Factor for the Los Angeles Angels as they finish their series with the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday afternoon. The right-hander performed well after his full-time transition to the rotation last season, but he has been a revelation this season as he has grown more comfortable in the role. While it’s impossible that he will continue his 0.45 ERA pace after throwing 12 shutout outings in his first 2 starts and allowing just 1 run in his last start, his expected numbers are still in the mid-2s. While command caused him some problems last season, he has mostly ironed those issues out.

Andrew Abbott doesn’t have quite the same promise for the Cincinnati Reds. However, he is able to generate weak contact more often than not, which should be more than enough against 2 below-average offenses that have been performing better than the metrics would say in terms of xwOBA and wRC+.

Once the starters do come out of the game, the bullpens have been amongst the top half of the league, and should be able to get this over the finish line. A couple of blowup innings helped the over in the first 2 games of the series, but expect these pitchers to avoid that in this game.

Angels vs Reds prediction: Under 8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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The Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals will play the 2nd half of a home-and-home on Sunday afternoon, with the Capitals taking an unsurprising 6-3 win on Saturday. While the Penguins have been a much better team than the Capitals overall this season, Pittsburgh’s place in the standings allowed them to sit nearly all their top players in the first matchup. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Ben Kindel, Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang headlined the group that sat and watched their team take on Alexander Ovechkin in what could be his last game in Pittsburgh.

It is unclear whether the Penguins will dress any of those players on Sunday, but with them failing to do it at home, it’s hard to see them go on the road and play 24 hours later. The decision wouldn’t be a popular one for hockey fans who want to see a Crosby vs Ovechkin matchup one more time, but if the cards fall correctly for the Capitals, we could see it in the first round of the playoffs.

The Capitals’ fate is in the Philadelphia Flyers’ hands, as they’d need the Flyers to record just one of a possible 4 points over their final 2 games, with the Capitals needing to win both games. Given the circumstances of the game Sunday in Pittsburgh, I’m going to take Washington to continue to take care of their own business on Sunday afternoon.

Penguins vs Capitals prediction: Capitals ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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The Montral Canadiens will take on the New York Islanders Sunday night. These teams have faced off twice this year, with each team collecting a victory. The Canadiens currently sit at 4^th place in the Eastern Conference. On the season, they are averaging 3.43 goals per game on just 26.4 shots per game. The Canadiens rank 2^nd in shotting percentage, scoring on 13% of their shots. The Canadiens are coming off a tough loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets but have won 8 of their last 10 overall. Additionally, the Canadiens have won 5 straight away games.

For the Islanders, they currently sit at 12^th in the Eastern Conference. The Islanders are hoping to keep their playoff hopes alive in this one. A loss here would officially eliminate them from playoff contention. The issue is that the Islanders are slumping. They have lost 5 of their last 6 overall and 3 of their last 4 at home. The Islanders rank 24^th in the NHL with 2.87 goals per game. The Islanders also give up 2.87 goals per game. Overall, the motivation is high for both teams, but I think the Canadiens will look to improve their playoff spot. I am taking the Canadiens on the money line.

Canadiens vs. Islanders Prediction: Montreal Canadiens ML (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Vancouver Canucks conclude their California road trip with a game against the Anaheim Ducks. They recently secured a 4-3 overtime victory against the San Jose Sharks, but this game follows a back-to-back situation and is the third game in four nights, which may lead to fatigue. This young team is also dealing with a significant number of injuries, and, with not much left to play for, it may be challenging to motivate them.

On the other hand, Anaheim still has an outside chance of winning the division, but they need to string together some wins. They are coming off an impressive 6-1 victory against the Sharks and may welcome back Cutter Gauthier, who has been sidelined due to injury. The Ducks have no trouble scoring, but they struggle to keep the puck out of their own net. Fortunately for them, the Canucks are among the worst offensive teams, so goaltender Lukas Dostal may not be very busy. However, the Ducks need to come out strong and take control of the game. Given what’s at stake, expect the Ducks to secure the win and cover the puck line.

Canucks vs Ducks Prediction: Ducks -1.5 (-125) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

It’s not often you see the Charlotte Hornets head into Madison Square Garden as -7.5 favorites, but that’s exactly the case on the final day of the regular season as they try to wrap up the #9 seed. The Miami Heat can still leap over the Hornets in the standings thanks to them owning the tie-breaker from winning the season series. In theory, that should motivate the Hornets to perform better than their last trip to NYC. Their only visit to this building earlier this season was a 15-point loss back in December. Since then, they’ve put together one of the more remarkable runs we’ve seen in recent years, and they head into this game having won 14 of 17 road games.

For the Knicks, their playoff positioning has already been settled, locked into the #3 seed behind the Pistons and Celtics following Friday’s big win over Toronto. It’s quite possible that head coach Mike Brown will field a weakened lineup here, just to give the likes of Brunson, KAT and others some rest before the postseason begins. The only starter I expect to play here is Mikal Bridges, even if it’s just briefly to preserve his consecutive game streak going.

You have to like Charlotte’s chances against the Knicks reserves here. A win guarantees the Hornets home court advantage in the play-in game against the #10 seed Miami Heat. For the way they’ve played the last couple of months, I think their fans deserve at least one playoff-like atmosphere before the season is over.  They’ll get exactly that if they beat the Knicks and secure the 9th seed here. Take Charlotte.

Hornets vs Knicks predictions: Charlotte Hornets -7.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat will take the court for the final time prior to the postseason when they square off on Sunday evening in Miami. Atlanta clinched an outright spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs by beating Cleveland on Friday and it will be either the #5 or #6 seed. Miami is locked into a play-in spot in the East as either the #9 or #10 seed. Although it is by no means do-or-die for either team, there is certainly more at stake for the Heat. Atlanta will go up against either Cleveland or New York in round 1; there’s not much difference in those matchups. Miami will either play at home or on the road against Charlotte to begin the play-in tournament. Obviously head coach Erik Spoelstra’s crew would much rather play at home in that must-win situation; it is 25-15 in the 305 this season compared to 17-24 as visitors.

Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and Davion Mitchell are all listed as day-to-day for the Heat. However, there is no reason to think that any of them won’t play. All 3 sat out on Friday, but that was due it being the second leg of a back-to-back situation against a pathetic Washington squad. They had all played the night before against Toronto, so none has any kind of real injury. The Hawks may play all of their guys, but they have been going all out in recent weeks in an effort to complete their amazing run to an automatic playoff spot. It would be no surprise if some or all of Atlanta’s top players log an lower-than-normal number of minutes as the playoffs approach next week. Unless Herro and/or Powell doesn’t play, Miami certainly should not be such a sizable underdog.

Hawks vs Heat prediction: Miami +6.5 (-114) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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So much for Victor Wembanyama’s rib injury. The alien had yet another superb performance on Saturday, dominating the lowly Dallas Mavericks with a 40-point and 13-rebound performance in just 26 minutes of play. His Spurs got the job done by 19 points, putting up 139 to win their 62nd game of the season. Having already wrapped up the #2 seed without a chance of moving up to 1st, there is a solid chance we see a slightly altered lineup in the final game of the season when the Spurs face the Nuggets. Even a team like San Antonio, which has shown to care about the integrity of the game more than some other teams, won’t risk injuries in a meaningless game to end the regular season.

For Denver, this game is anything but meaningless, as they are still not safe in the #3 seed. The Lakers are exactly 1 game behind them, but they hold the tiebreaker having won the regular season series 2-1. LA plays the Jazz on the final day of the season; I think it’s safe to say they are coming out of that game with a win regardless who they put on the floor. That means the Nuggets will be motivated to get a result on Sunday.

The Nuggets have won 11 games in a row, and it makes way more sense to back them to get the win here as this game actually means something to them. These teams have played each other 3 times this season and all 3 games were high-scoring. That could be the case on Sunday as well, but I’m more in favor of backing Denver to secure the #3 seed and go over their pre-season win total.

Spurs vs Nuggets Predictions: Denver Nuggets +11 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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