Parlays

This line belies a bigger question than who is better; it asks whether Charlotte should be laying this price to anyone. The Hornets have had stretches of good basketball, especially at home, but their wins tend to come through flow and rhythm rather than control. They can score in bursts, they can even clamp down, but they’re not built to methodically put teams away. That includes teams like the Pels, who the market on any given night avoids like the Black Plague. That means that New Orleans is certainly taking back an inflated number by default, which is optimal against a team with Charlotte’s profile.

Charlotte’s offense can run hot, but it can also flatten out and struggle to create separation. That’s where an underdog like New Orleans can hang around. The Pelicans don’t need to be polished — they need to be persistent. If they win the physical battles and generate extra possessions, the math works in their favor. The price on the Hornets asks them to be prolific and carry their own weight. This is a huge contrast to being a team that was a plucky underdog playing with nothing to lose just weeks ago. New Orleans plus the points is the safer play.

Pelicans vs Hornets prediction: New Orleans +6.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Houston deserves more skepticism than it is getting as a modest favorite. On the surface, the Rockets being favored by a substantial margin makes sense — they defend, they run, they can flip games with quick scoring bursts and they play winning basketball. That profile attracts money because it’s visually convincing. But spreads aren’t about who looks better; they’re about what the market is really telling us. The price says that the Pacers are live. As such, Houston isn’t an absolutely  huge favorite in this spot.

Houston has the tools to control this game, but the Pacers have the scrappiness to make things difficult. To cover the necessary margin requires sustained control, but Indiana’s improved ball security, steadier shot selection and ability to avoid self-inflicted mistakes give it a path to stay within striking range. The line itself suggests this isn’t a mismatch, but rather a competitive bout; that’s why we urge those who are backing Houston here to proceed with caution. Grabbing the points with the Pacers is not betting on an upset narrative. It’s reading between the lines and taking advantage of a situational spot where Indiana can win outright.

Rockets vs Pacers prediction: Indiana +5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves will be trying to extend their winning streak to 5 games when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. These 2 teams just faced each other on Saturday — also in Memphis — and the Timberwolves rolled 131-114. That was preceded by victories over Golden State, Dallas and Oklahoma City (all by at least 12 points). The T-Wolves aren’t just winning these days; they are crushing people. As for the Grizzlies, they are going in the complete opposite direction. They have lost 6 consecutive contests, with each of the last 4 setbacks coming by 8 points or more. I’m backing the trends to continue, so my Timberwolves vs Grizzlies pick is for the visitors to win and cover.

Minnesota controls 2 key possession levers that matter more than total talent across 48 minutes: paint scoring and defensive rebounding. Memphis has flashed some scoring and athletic ability, but its offensive rhythm is volatile — booming in bursts but vulnerable to long droughts. Memphis’ defensive rebounding rate allows the opposition multiple second chances, which inherently increases scoring opportunities for teams with strong interior presence like Minnesota. In summary, this is a nightmare setup for Memphis — and the Timberwolves are certainly capable of taking advantage. The best part about laying this amount of points is that we don’t need a blowout — even when Minnesota can easily achieve that kind of a beatdown. We simply need the T-Wolves to be the better side and play a full 4 quarters. If they do, this ticket should cash without too much trouble.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies prediction: Minnesota -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Ottawa Senators will face the Pittsburgh Penguins Monday night. The Senators come into this one winning their last 3 games. In those games they have outscored their opponents 16-4. The most impressive thing to me is the Senators’ defense. On the season they give up 24.9 shots on goal, which ranks them third in the NHL. This ability to stifle opposing offenses has helped them tremendously, as they have the worst save percentage in the NHL (.868). With such poor goaltending, it is difficult to believe that they have been able to hold opposing teams to so few goals.

The Penguins rank sixth in the NHL by averaging 3.40 goals per game. They also rank ninth in goals against, only giving up 2.87 goals per game. The Penguins come into this one winning 6 straight games. This form is wildly impressive, but their ability to score is more impressive. They have scored 6 goals in 4 of their last 6 games while still scoring above 3 in the other 2 games. Pittsburgh is also third in powerplay conversion at 27%. Overall, the Pens are in better form, playing at home and boast an elite offense against the team with the worst save percentage in the NHL. I am taking Pittsburgh ML.

Senators vs. Penguins Prediction: Penguins ML (-120) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Montreal Canadiens and Minnesota Wild are set for a Monday night showdown at Grand Casino Arena. Minnesota is looking for revenge, as Montreal won the first matchup of the season between these teams by a score of 4-3 a few weeks ago on January 20. The Wild should feel good about their chances, as they have become one of the most dangerous teams in the NHL with the addition of superstar defenseman Quinn Hughes. In 24 games with his new team, Hughes has racked up 29 points on 3 goals and 26 assists while posting a rating of +10. His presence has propelled the Wild to become one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, and they enter this contest averaging 4.5 goals per game over their last 8.

The Canadiens are capable of scoring at a high clip, as well, but their team save percentage of .886 leaves a lot to be desired. Minnesota owns a team save percentage of .911, and both Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt have been sharp between the pipes. Wallstedt allowed 4 goals on 33 shots to the Canadiens in the first meeting, but Gustavsson is projected to get the start in this one. He has been victorious in 4 of his last 5 outings and is coming off a stellar performance in which he allowed just a single goal on 30 shots to the Flames. Look for the Wild to get their revenge on the Canadiens with a win in this matchup.

Canadiens vs Wild prediction: Minnesota ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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Macklin Celebrini and the San Jose Sharks take on Connor Bedard and the Chicago Blackhawks in what should be an excellent matchup in the NHL. These Western Conference foes have yet to meet this season, and with 2 young and exciting rosters, we should be in for an excellent game. Here is a Sharks vs Blackhawks prediction.

San Jose has been gunning to make the playoffs against many expectations, but a bit of inconsistency has prevented it from gaining traction. While the Sharks have lost their last two games, they have been inches away from better outcomes — their 0-1-1 run came with a pair of 1-goal losses. If anything, I expect those results to light a fire under them and drive them to success in this game. Chicago has looked far worse and is carrying no momentum, as it is 0-3-2 in its last 5 games. They have scored just nine goals over that span, which has been an issue for them all season. They score at the sixth-lowest rate (2.64 per game). Both teams are relatively healthy, but San Jose brings more firepower to this matchup. Being just 2 points from a playoff spot, they have a ton for which to play. For this Sharks vs Blackhawks prediction, I’m backing San Jose on the money line.

Sharks vs Blackhawks prediction: San Jose ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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Normally, this would be considered a heavyweight bout with 2 pedigrees squaring off for bragging rights and historical supremacy. The market, however, has treated the Orange like an afterthought. UNC comes in ranked and 17-4 SU, while the Orange are sitting at 13-9 SU and unranked. As a result, the media is giving ‘Cuse no chance to win. The price reflects that sentiment, but it is too many points.

Let’s talk about Syracuse’s resume. The Orange lost 4 games by a combined 10 points, which include narrow losses at a ranked Clemson and Houston (the latter in overtime). The Orange also have another overtime loss. Flip those results the other way and Syracuse has the same record as the Tar Heels — and the Orange are likely ranked, too. Should that be the case, the price in this contest is also much closer than the heavy lumber on offer at the present moment. To add, the Orange also own a win over Tennessee this season — a Tennessee team that at one point was sitting in the top 10. What are we trying to say? Syracuse can rise up to the level of its opponent, and treating the Orange like a proverbial speed bump is an oversight. As a result, the number next to its name has all the makings of an overlay. There is also enormous lookahead potential, as well. On deck, the Heels square off with arch rival Duke in a huge showdown at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday. As a result, we have a Syracuse team that is better than its record suggests taking back an enhanced number against an opponent who could easily be looking ahead. That makes the Orange the side to back.

Syracuse vs North Carolina prediction: Syracuse +11.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +11.

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After a very eventful slate of college basketball over the weekend, the Big Monday card is noticeably lighter than usual. However, we have a massive marquee game on the schedule as the Kansas Jayhawks will take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a game between a pair of the best teams in the loaded Big 12 conference. I’ve had a good handle on Kansas over the course of the Big 12 portion of the schedule, and the Jayhawks were my best bet on Saturday in a massive spot at Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas took care of BYU in a wire-to-wire victory, highlighted by terrific games from the freshmen duo of Darryn Peterson and Bryson Tiller. With that said, I’ll be going against Kansas and backing Texas Tech to lay the lumber and win by margin in Lubbock on Monday.

For starters, this is a fantastic situational spot for the Red Raiders, as head coach Grant McCasland’s team just lost at UCF in a game where they still scored 80 points despite 13 turnovers and a lack of aggression on the glass. That was a sleepy spot for Texas Tech, especially since the Red Raiders were coming off a rousing win over Houston at home the week before. Given their poor performance in Saturday’s loss, it’s safe to say that McCasland should have his team’s full attention and they should play to their standard at home, where the Red Raiders have yet to lose this season.

On the other side, Kansas’ dominance over the last 5 games shouldn’t be ignored, but it’s important to consider that Peterson might not be 100% healthy heading into this game, and his level of fitness could be questioned given that he hardly played in the 2nd half on Saturday. If Peterson isn’t 100% or he doesn’t play in long stretches of this game, the Jayhawks don’t have the depth of scoring on offense to keep pace with a Texas Tech team that is among the best offenses in the country and thrives at home. Furthermore, the Red Raiders have been shooting the lights out since January 1 (4th in 3-point percentage per Barttorvik), and Kansas’ 3-point defense has not nearly been as good away from home in conference play. This is a spot where Bill Self’s team is primed for a letdown following 5 straight victories, and the hosts should bounce back following a disappointing effort over the weekend. Lay the points the Red Raiders. 

Kansas vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech -3.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.

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