Parlays

We have Friday night ACC action as the Clemson Tigers face the Louisville Cardinals. When this game was first scheduled, I am sure people thought it would be important for different reasons, as Clemson was expected to be a playoff contender, not Louisville. But the Tigers have been a massive disappointment, as is well documented, sitting at 5-4 and fighting for mere bowl eligibility. The Cardinals took a big setback last week when they dropped a home game to Cal. That dropped the Cardinals to 7-2 overall, including 2 conference losses, and trailing 5 teams with only a single loss. Louisville will have to work hard to avoid the letdown spot here, but I think they are the better team, so I am backing the Cardinals at home to cover -3.

Perhaps the biggest problem for Clemson this season has been their inability to stop the passing game. They actually rank outside the top 100 in terms of passing yards allowed per game. Louisville should be able to find some big plays in the passing game. I look for that to be the difference in the game. The Louisville defense is stout, and they have held up against good opponents like Miami, Virginia, and Pitt, and I think all of those offenses are more dangerous than this year’s Clemson offense. Playing at home on a Friday night with a short line looks like a good play to me. Give me Louisville -3.

Clemson vs Louisville Prediction: Louisville -3 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We have a Big Ten tilt between a couple of unfamiliar foes on Friday as the Oregon Ducks are set to host the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a game that doesn’t project to be all that close on paper. However, even though I’m not all that high on this Minnesota team, I’m much more inclined to back the Gophers on the road in what is one of the best situational spots on the board in this Week 12 slate. On one side, the Gophers are in the midst of a solid season, having just qualified for bowl eligibility after defeating Michigan State on November 1. Now, with Minnesota coming off a much-needed bye week prior to this extended road trip, PJ Fleck should have his team prepared to play in what is a natural get-up spot for a rested and ready Gophers side. 

Conversely, the Ducks are in a pretty brutal letdown spot after knocking off Iowa on the road in what was arguably the most important win of its season to this point. Now, Dan Lanning’s side will have to travel all the way to the northwest for a bizarre matchup against a new conference foe that they couldn’t possibly care all that much about, all while staring at a massive potential College Football Playoff elimination game against USC on deck. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Ducks come out pretty flat in a spot in which they could still be a bit hungover from last week’s victory in dramatic fashion at Kinnick Stadium. Oregon certainly looks to be one of the 10-12 best teams in the nation to this point, but it’s also worth considering that the Ducks were extremely banged up a week ago and could be without as many as 5 starters on offense this week if those injuries carry over. With that in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Oregon approached this game with a bit more trepidation and kept things pretty close to the vest. As a result, the Gophers could certainly keep things within the number in a game with a fairly low total, so I’ll certainly take the points with Minnesota on Friday. 

Minnesota vs Oregon prediction: Minnesota +26.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 25.5

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This is less about backing Notre Dame and more about fading Pittsburgh. The Panthers have been one of the hottest teams in the country, winning 5 straight and covering all 5 in the process. That streak has vaulted them into the Top 25 and put them squarely in the College Football Playoff discussion. The talking heads are all saying the same thing — that the road to the ACC and possibly the playoff runs through Pittsburgh.

The logic is easy to buy into. Pitt faces Notre Dame this week, Georgia Tech next week, and then closes the season against Miami. If the Panthes run the table and win the ACC, they’re in the playoff. The market is leaning into that narrative, but the number tells a different story. Despite the hype, despite both teams being ranked, Notre Dame is still laying double digits. That’s not a mistake — it’s a message. The Fighting Irish just demolished Navy 49–10, but the market still refuses to believe they can dominate a ranked opponent like Pittsburgh. The oddsmakers disagree. When a ranked team catching points looks “too good to be true,” it usually is. The Panthers have become a public underdog, and that’s not a role we’re eager to buy into. The side says Notre Dame.

This number borders on absurd — not because Kansas State isn’t good, but because it’s a clear reflection of just how far the market has pushed Oklahoma State into irrelevance. Anytime you see a line this inflated between 2 conference opponents, it’s worth asking: should this favorite really be laying this kind of lumber on the road? Probably not.

Kansas State is priced like a steamroller here because of the Pokes’ infamy. The Cats nevertheless have posted 2 blowout wins in their last 3 games and have covered consistently at home and away. The Wildcats stumbled 2 weeks ago at Texas Tech, which is nothing to scoff at, but before that, they routed Kansas by double digits, beat TCU by 13, and handled UCF by 14. They even nearly took down Baylor in Waco. Those results keep their stock high.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is the exact opposite story. The Cowboys haven’t covered a game since August. They’ve looked lost, lifeless, and generally stuck in neutral — a team with no head coach or FBS wins to show for its effort and no momentum to lean on. But those are the kinds of teams that create hidden value late in the year. The Cowboys are the quintessential free-rolling underdog: beaten, forgotten, and catching a massively inflated tag because they “look terrible.” We don’t need Oklahoma State to turn into a world-beater overnight — we just need them to show some fight at home against a Kansas State team that’s being priced as though it can do no wrong. Oklahoma State is ugly, but that’s exactly why they’re worth playing. The points are inflated, the market is lopsided, and the setup is pure value.

Pittsburgh and West Virginia renew one of college basketball’s most heated rivalries tonight in Morgantown. Pitt enters at 3–0 under Jeff Capel, showcasing improved balance and defensive intensity. The Panthers are averaging 77 points per game while holding opponents to just 62, with forward Cameron Corhen anchoring the interior and averaging a double double. Freshman guard Brandin Cummings has added scoring punch but remains questionable with an ankle injury, which could further slow Pitt’s offensive rhythm. Despite the solid start, the Panthers have faced modest competition, and this trip to West Virginia will test their ability to execute against a physical, veteran defense. Capel’s teams typically emphasize half court play and rebounding — traits that fit the grind it out tone this rivalry often brings.

West Virginia also comes in 3–0, thriving on defense under new head coach Ross Hodge. The Mountaineers have held opponents under 40% shooting while forcing over 16 turnovers per game, establishing an early season identity rooted in pressure and toughness. Offensively, WVU is still finding its groove, averaging 71 points on 43% shooting, but their commitment to controlling tempo has paid dividends. Expect a slow paced, physical game where both teams work deep into the shot clock and rely on defense to dictate flow. Given the matchup’s history of low scoring battles and the early season emphasis on execution and rebounding, points should be at a premium.

Pitt vs West Virginia Prediction: Under 134.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 133

Despite defeating Oakland in its last game, Purdue dropped from No.1 to No.2 in the AP Polls ahead of its trip to Tuscaloosa to take on No.8 Alabama. This will be the toughest test for Purdue this season, and even though Purdue is without the great Zach Edey, the Boilermakers have Oscar Cluff – who’s 6’11, averaging 11.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. The Boilermakers weren’t sharp against Oakland, allowing 44.1% shooting while hitting just 47.1% themselves. Alabama dominated North Dakota 91-62 to open the season, then outlasted No.5 St. John’s and walked away with a 103-96 victory after shooting 48.1% from the field.

According to KenPom, Purdue ranks 44th in adjusted defensive efficiency (98.1), while Alabama sits slightly higher at 38th (97.5). Purdue will look to slow down the tempo, but Alabama plays at such a fast pace, it’s going to be tough. According to KenPom, Alabama ranks 2nd nationally in adjusted tempo, and freshman Labaron Philon leads this Crimson Tide team with 23.5 points and 5.5 assists per game. He’s just 1 of 5 players averaging double figures. For Purdue, senior Fletcher Loyer leads with 22.5 points and 1.0 assists per game, but the Boilermakers haven’t looked sharp in their first 2 games. The Tide have played like they should be No.1 in the country, and I expect them to rally behind their home crowd and take down No.2 Purdue in tonight’s matchup.

Purdue vs Alabama prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The California Bears will travel to Manhattan, Kansas on Thursday night for a non-conference game against the Kansas State Wildcats. This will be the sixth time in history that these two teams play each other, and the spread is Kansas State -6.5. Cal is 1-4 all time vs Kansas State and are not expected to improve their head-to-head record here. The Wildcats won the last matchup in 2022 63-54 but I expect the point total to be much higher in 2025.

The total is set for 162.5 points, and my best bet of the game is the over. I like the over in this one because both teams play at a fast pace and have been putting up high totals to start the 2025-26 season. The Bears dropped 97 points in their last game against Cal State Fullerton and are averaging 85.7 points per game as a team. They are 3-0 on the year and have put up at least 77 points in every game.

The Wildcats offense has been one of the best in the country thus far and I see them carrying that momentum into this one. Through two games, Kansas State is averaging 95.5 points per game and are shooting an impressive 56 percentage from three-point land. According to KenPom, Kansas State’s offense is ranked #1 nationally in three-point percentage and #4 in effective field goal percentage. Former AAC conference player of the year P.J. Haggerty is averaging 25 points per game.

The offense and shooting should be good enough by both teams to carry the total over 162.5 points and the pace of play should increase the likelihood as well.  Kansas State is ranked #11 in average offensive possession length and #84 in adjusted tempo while Cal is ranked #115 and #134.  The total has gone over in both of Kansas State’s games this year and I expect that trend to continue here. Take the over.

California vs Kansas State prediction: Over 162.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at 164.

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The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Toronto Raptors tonight in what sets up as a favorable spot for the home team. Donovan Mitchell, who rested in Cleveland’s previous game, returns fresh and should provide a major spark offensively. The Cavs enter at 8-4 overall but have struggled to cover spreads at 4-8 ATS, leaving some bettors hesitant. However, that mark could present a “buy-low” opportunity against a Toronto team that’s been inconsistent on both ends. The Raptors rely heavily on Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett for scoring, but their defense has shown cracks against elite guards — a weakness Mitchell is primed to exploit.

Cleveland has quietly started to regain rhythm, especially at home, where its defense has been one of the best in the East. Mitchell’s shot creation should ease pressure on Darius Garland and create better looks for role players like Allen and Mobley. Meanwhile, Toronto continues to struggle generating efficient offense in half court sets, and its scoring droughts on the road have been costly. Although the Cavs haven’t been a strong ATS team, this feels like the right time to back them as they trend upward and get their star back in the lineup.

Raptors vs Cavaliers prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.

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Last year’s finalists the Pacers are slowly turning into a laughingstock of the NBA following a 1-10 SU start. What makes things worse is the fact that things are going from bad to worse – they just allowed 152 points on the road in Salt Lake City against the Utah Jazz, the 23rd best ranked offense in the league. Thursday will see the Pacers finish their 4-game West coast road trip as they take on the Phoenix Suns, this team cannot wait to get back home following that embarrassment on Tuesday.

The Suns just played last night in Dallas, winning their 4th game in a row 123-114 over the struggling Mavs. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by this team during this stretch, the Suns rank 3rd on defense and 6th on offense. Devin Booker is getting great support from Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale and a bunch of other role players. Phoenix playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back is literally the only thing that can deter people from backing them in this game.

Indiana is breaking all kinds of negative records in these first few weeks of the season. Injuries have just decimated this team and until we see some progress in that area I’m afraid it’s best avoid backing them even against average to slightly above average opponents. Phoenix is in a good rhythm, especially at home where they are 5-1 SU this season. Playing on a backend of a back-to-back will make things slightly tougher, but taking care of business against a struggling Pacers team should still be doable. I’ll take Book and co. to cover here.

Pacers vs Suns prediction: Phoenix Suns -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Atlanta Hawks and Utah Jazz meet tonight in Salt Lake City after both teams exploded offensively in their previous outings. Atlanta rolled past Sacramento 133-100, shooting over 57% from the field and 42% from deep. However, history suggests some offensive regression could be coming, as the Hawks are 12-7 to the under on the second night of a back to back since the 2024 season. Fatigue and slower pace typically follow their strong shooting nights. Utah, meanwhile, is also coming off a massive offensive performance, scoring 152 points against Indiana in a game where nearly everything fell their way.

While neither team is known for playing much defense, the circumstances point toward a lower scoring affair. Both are due for shooting regression after unsustainable offensive outputs, and Atlanta’s travel plus Utah’s tendency to cool off after hot streaks could slow the tempo. The Hawks’ guards may struggle to replicate their recent efficiency, and Utah’s offense should face more resistance against a focused opponent. Expect stretches of sloppy play, increased half court possessions, and missed looks as both sides try to settle into rhythm. This game still has offensive talent, but situational trends and fatigue suggest it falls short of the number.

Hawks vs Jazz Prediction: Under 232.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

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The Dallas Stars will visit the red-hot Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night. The Stars are riding a 3-game winning streak and are 7-1-2 in their last 10 games. The Canadiens are 6-2-2 in their last 10, and are 5-2-1 on home ice this season. This game features 2 teams that are loaded with offense and scoring capabilities. In the Stars last 6 games, the over 4-2. The over has also hit in 8 consecutive games for the Canadiens. The Canadiens are one of the highest scoring teams in the league, averaging 3.63 goals per game. At the other end of the ice, both of these teams are averaging more than 3 goals against per game. Two of the most lethal powerplay units will be featured in this game, both are ranked inside the top-5 in the league. Look for some goals to be scored on the man advantage.

There are 4 skaters in this game that are averaging a point per game or better, I expect they will contribute to the scoring. The top line on each team has the ability to strike early and often. The Bell Centre will be rocking on Thursday and I expect the energy to translate into some high-flying offense. Give me the over in this one.

Stars vs. Canadiens prediction: Over 6.0 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Buffalo Sabres travel to Colorado to take on the Avalanche for the final time this season. These teams met back in mid-October in what was a relatively tight hockey game. There’s no question that this game will be a mismatch. It’s hard to envision a scenario where things don’t get out of hand for Buffalo. They are 0-4-2 on the road, playing the second game in as many nights, allow over 30 shots against per game, and have to deal with the highest-scoring offence in the NHL.

Colorado is scoring 4 goals per game and has gotten some fantastic goaltending from Scott Wedgewood. MacKenzie Blackwood is likely to start this game, but that isn’t a massive downgrade. The only thing that can slow them down is their mentality. If they come into this game thinking it will be easy, then they could be in trouble. The Avalanche are elite in almost every offensive category, and if they come out with pace and get pucks on goal, they should have no problem covering the Puck Line by a wide margin.

Sabres vs Avalanche prediction: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-135) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The Winnipeg Jets are on their first extended road trip of the season, and so far it hasn’t gone well. The Jets are just 1-3-0 so far on their current 6-game road trip, but they could be in a favorable spot in this matchup against the Kraken. Seattle is without top goaltender Joey Daccord, who has posted a .900 save percentage and 2.83 goals-against average so far this season. Not having Daccord available when going up against a high-flying Jets offense would be a significant loss. Winnipeg has a well-rounded forward group that is capable of lighting the lamp early and often, and Seattle could have their hands full trying to contain Kyle Connor and company.

The Kraken have struggled to score goals so far in 2025. Seattle ranks 31st in the NHL scoring just 2.50 goals per game, and the power play is converting at just an 18.8% rate. The Jets have a clear offensive advantage in this one, and they have a definite advantage between the pipes as well. Connor Hellebuyck has been his usual dominant self so far this season, sporting a .921 save percentage and 2.35 goals-against average through 12 games. Back the Jets on the road.

Jets vs Kraken prediction: Winnipeg Jets ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable to -160.

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