Parlays

Erick Fedde has tossed 815.2 career innings at the major league level, and he has a career BABIP of .290 with a career strand rate of 71.7%. This season, his opponents have a .208 BABIP, and when on base, they are stranded 81.6% of the time. Fedde ranks 4th percentile in whiff rate, and he fills up the strike zone. Further, he ranks 22nd percentile in barrel rate.

Yes, Fedde has a respectable 3.77 ERA through 43 innings, but his 6.03 FIP is far more worrisome, especially in a matchup against a Cubs lineup ranking 8th in wOBA with a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Fedde has also allowed 7 home runs in his last 3 starts alone, with at least 2 allowed in each of those outings. I believe we end up seeing Fedde’s ERA closer to 5 than his current mark.

Colin Rea is the scheduled starter for the Cubs on Sunday. Rea has pitched both out of the bullpen and as a starter for Chicago this season, and he has a 4.68 ERA through his first 42.1 innings of work. The right-hander has a 4.23 FIP but his 5.34 xERA isn’t ideal due to poor batted-ball metrics. Rea ranks just 14th percentile in hard-hit rate and 17th percentile in barrel rate this season while failing to generate many whiffs. The White Sox lineup has a respectable 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, and they should be able to contribute towards the total. The wind is blowing in for this game, but I still favor the over.

Cubs vs White Sox prediction: Over 8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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It’s been a brutal stretch for the Kansas City Royals, who have lost 6 games in a row and 8 of their last 10. They will look to salvage a win against their rival St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, but it doesn’t look like an appetizing matchup from Kansas City‘s perspective. They’ll send Stephen Kolek to the mound, who has given up 8 earned runs in his 2 starts thus far (10.2 innings). Advanced metrics suggest he will regress back to the mean, but I’m not banking on it happening today against a Cardinals lineup that has been one of the best in baseball over the last couple weeks.

Andre Pallante will take the ball for the Cardinals, sporting a solid season thus far – though inconsistent. He’s allowed 8 earned runs over his last 11 innings, and his strikeout rate in those 3 starts suffered compared to his 3 starts prior – in which he whiffed 19 combined batters against the Astros, Mariners and Pirates. From a bullpen perspective, St. Louis and Kansas City are 2 of the worst in the league. Both units have an ERA of 4.5 or higher while allowing over 160 combined runs.

In a matchup between 2 volatile pitching staffs, the weather only strengthens the case for an over, as the weather forecast in St. Louis calls for 87 degrees with wind blowing out to left-center at around 15 to 16 MPH. There should be runs aplenty on Sunday, especially when you consider there’s not much of a getaway factor here. The Royals will just make the short trip back to Kansas City after this game, and the Cardinals are off tomorrow. 

Royals vs Cardinals prediction: Over 9 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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Game 3 and the rubber match of the series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies will be played on Sunday afternoon in Colorado. It seems to be that every year even before the season begins, the Diamondbacks know they will be competing for a wildcard spot with the Los Angeles Dodgers in their division, and they need to secure wins against weaker teams like the Rockies to do that. They will have the pitching matchup in their favor on Sunday, as they send Michael Soroka to the mound to take on Michael Lorenzen. Soroka has been dominant recently, only giving up 1 earned run in his last 2 combined starts — in which he pitched a total of 12.2 innings. Meanwhile, Lorenzen has not been great recently, giving up a total of 13 earned runs in his last 15.1 innings pitched. As a team, the Rockies are allowing 5.1 runs per game, which ranks 26th in the MLB.

If Soroka can keep the few bats that can do damage in the Rockies lineup in check, the Diamondbacks should be successful in this game. Give me the Diamondbacks to take the tiebreaker of this series.

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-155) available at time of publishing. Playable to -160.

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