Parlays

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The market might have finally caught up to the Hornets. Charlotte is laying a significant tag here, and the number tells you the market is pricing in the Hornets’ current heater more than the full shape of this matchup. The Hornets have won 6 straight, including a 118-89 road demolition of Boston, and their recent form has been loud enough to create an overreaction. As a result, a competent Miami team is taking back a huge number.

The sharper angle is beyond the price itself, it’s also stylistic. Charlotte’s recent surge has been fueled by pace, confidence, and clean offensive stretches, but Miami can match it. The Heat don’t need to outshine Charlotte athletically; they need to be able to slow things down or speed it up and score in bunches to keep the Hornets out of rhythm. The Heat can do both. Miami has also won three straight, but beating Brooklyn twice this week won’t move the needle like blowing out the Celtics will. Nevertheless, laying this price with Charlotte is buying recency. Charlotte may well win, but this line asks backers to buy high on the Hornets against a veteran team that will make them earn separation. Simply put, this is too many points.

Heat vs Hornets prediction: Miami Heat +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Celtics are 41-21 with one of the league’s best defensive profiles, allowing just 107.1 points per game. Meanwhile, Dallas is 21-41 and has lost 5 straight. Add in the prospect of Tatum returning to the C’s and on paper, that explains the line. However, a spread this large also assumes Boston turns control into margin, and those are not always the same thing.

There are two market forces working here. First, Boston is coming off an ugly 118-89 home loss to Charlotte, which naturally invites bounce-back money. Second, Dallas looks toxic to casual bettors thanks to their losing streak, though the Mavericks just lost by 1 point to Orlando on Thursday. That matters, because it shows they are still capable of dragging games into the kind of possession-by-possession grind that helps huge underdogs cover in an inflated range like this one. That is the case for here. I am not saying that Dallas is good enough to threaten Boston consistently, but the quantity of points on offer is asking the Celtics to maintain intensity for a full 48 minutes. After the Charlotte debacle, Boston’s position is more about restoring order than winning at margin. Overlay.

Mavericks vs Celtics prediction: Mavericks +15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +15.

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The losing streak of the Indiana Pacers has reached 7 games in a row, with their last 4 defeats coming by double-digits. Ivica Zubac returned to LA in street clothes as his new team faced his old team in the Clippers. Indy was routed by 23 points on Wednesday despite getting 29 points from Pascal Siakam. Things could get a lot more difficult on Friday if Siakam isn’t able to play, as he is officially listed as day-to-day with a wrist issue. This is nothing new for the Pacers, who are already missing a bunch of key players, including Nembhard and Nesmith. They’ve not had the best of times versus the Lakers either, winning just once in 6 meetings. At Crypto.com Arena, they’re just 2-9 ATS in 11 visits.

Meanwhile, the Lakers lost a tough one in Denver last night, falling to the Nuggets 120-113 as +5.5 underdogs. Luka Doncic had 27 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists, while LeBron James surpassed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for most field goals made all-time in the NBA, but none of that was enough to slow down Nikola Jokic who just destroyed the Lakers down low. Deandre Ayton left the game after just 5 mins with a knee injury, and he is likely to sit this one out against Indiana. This could force the Lakers to play small and in theory a lot faster than what we’re accustomed to seeing from them. I actually like the sound of that plan, that’s where the talent of Luka Doncic excels the most.

In 10 games played with no rest this season the Lakers are 5-5 SU, but they did win their last 3 of 4 such games by 24, 17 and 25 points vs Sacramento, Toronto and Atlanta. Indiana’s Net Rating reads -15.3 during this 7-game losing streak, only two other teams in the NBA are worse than them in this stretch. I’ll back the Lakers even though they’re playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back.

Pacers vs Lakers prediction: Lakers -10.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The VCU Rams and the Dayton Flyers will meet on Friday night for their last game of the 2026-26 regular season. Both teams will head to Pittsburgh next week to play in the Atlantic 10 Tournament and try to clinch a bid to the NCAA Tournament. VCU has a chance to make the Big Dance as an at-large team, but a loss here would be detrimental to those hopes. Dayton will need to win the league tournament to make the field of 68, but it is playing better than anyone in the conference of late. The Flyers are on a 6-game winning streak, and I expect them to keep it going. Dayton is currently -1.5 and I am backing it to cover.

The Flyers have just 2 losses at home all year and easily beat A-10 leader St. Louis on February 24. Since February 25, the Flyers are ranked as the #21 team in the country and have the #19 ranked defense at Bart Torvik. They are 6-0 during that span and are shooting an impressive 41.8 percent from 3. The Rams could struggle to score on this Dayton defense, as they rank just #63 nationally in scoring over their last 4 games. I expect Dayton to maintain momentum.

VCU vs Dayton prediction: Dayton -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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For anyone who thinks that Central Florida can’t hang with the Mountaineers, all we have to do is look back at who they have already knocked off throughout this season: BYU, TCU, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech. However, the Golden Knights, despite being 20-9, don’t carry the mystique of a team like the Mountaineers playing in Morgantown when March Madness approaches. West Virginia is classed as a perennial dark horse to sneak into the Big Dance, while UCF may be regarded as a team punching above its weight. UCF’s 2-game skid, which includes losses to Oklahoma State in overtime and Baylor, reinforce that narrative. Moreover, the Knights losing both those games at home, makes an away tilt like this one appear even more daunting.

UCF is heading into one of the more animated and unwelcoming environments in all of college basketball. The point spread reflects that sentiment. The fact that WVU also beat UCF earlier this season in Orlando by seven also makes the Golden Knights a tough sell here and makes the price look justifiable. However, there is a lot to like about Central Florida. The Knights score nearly 83 points per game while hitting 47% of their field goals overall. This is a recipe that travels. UCF scores through efficiency and they can also hit from the perimeter effectively, too, averaging a 38% success rate on their 3-point attempts. There are multiple ways for UCF to attack West Virginia and find success. Given the fact that UCF is taking back points, they are a must play.

Central Florida vs West Virginia prediction: UCF +3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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It is the final game of the regular season for UNLV and San Diego State in Mountain West play. The Aztecs sit one game behind Utah State, but more importantly for the Aztecs, they sit firmly on the wrong list of the bubble right now. The Runnin’ Rebs sit in a 4-way log jam tied for 5^th in the conference. San Diego State won the first matchup by 11, but they have stumbled down the stretch, losing 4 of their last 5 games. Not coincidentally, they have been playing the better teams in the conference in that stretch. I think this is a spot where the Aztecs win but do not cover. I am taking UNLV +10 on Friday night.

This game has the makings of a close game. Neither teams shoots many threes, nor does either team defend the line particularly well. The Rebels like to play fast, but that’s not easy to do against the defense of the Aztecs. This game will play more in the half-court than in transition, and while that favors the Aztecs, it does not favor them pulling away by a large margin. UNLV is exceptional at forcing contact and getting to the foul line, which tends to keep a game close. The key will be the turnover battle—San Diego State forces a lot of turnovers, and they need a lot of turnovers to be successful. If UNLV avoids live ball turnovers, they will stay close.

UNLV vs San Diego State prediction: UNLV +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Colorado Avalanche will take on the Dallas Stars Friday night. The Avalanche are 4-1 since the Olympic break and have outscored their opponents 18-11 in that time. They are currently in 1^st place in the Western Conference, just 3 points above the Stars. On the season, the Avalanche lead to league with 3.82 goals per game while only allowing 2.40. These numbers are incredible, and it is not surprising to see that they are averaging 34.2 shots on goal per game. The Avalanche also rank 1^st in save percentage on the year with their goalies stopping 91% of shots. Overall, the Avalanche are playing great hockey.

For the Stars, they sit in 2^nd place of the Western Conference and are 4-0 since the Olympic break. Through those 4 games, they are outscoring opponents 19-5. This should give them some confidence going into this game against the Avalanche. On the season, they are averaging 3.41 goals per game while allowing 2.66 goals per game. The most impressive statistic for the Stars is that they are scoring on 13.1% of their total shots. In this game, we will see 2 of the best NHL teams face off. I believe that the Stars competition has been weak since the Olympic break and that the Avalanche defense will stop the Stars offense while creating offensive opportunities for the most powerful offense in the NHL. I am taking the Avalanche on the money line.

Avalanche vs Stars prediction: Colorado Avalanche ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Anaheim Ducks are in scorching-hot form as they prepare to host the Montreal Canadiens on Friday night. The Olympic break did nothing to slow down the Ducks, who were 9-2-0 in their last 11 games prior to the intermission. Since returning, Anaheim is 4-1-0 after walloping the Islanders 5-1 on Wednesday. There is no reason to think that a downturn in level is coming, so my Canadiens vs Ducks pick is for the home team to prevail. Anaheim has been especially impressive at home, sporting a 21-9-1 record in its own building this season. It is 9-1-0 in its last 10 home games.

Montreal is a solid 33-18-9 this season, but it has not been able to sustain any consistency of late. The Habs have alternated wins and losses over their last 6 outings and they most recently surrendered a ridiculous 7 goals in a setback against San Jose on Tuesday. Sam Montembeault will be in net for this matchup and he has been terrible in 2025-26 (3.37 goals-against average, .874 save percentage). The Canadiens have lost 3 of his last 4 starts and he has allowed fewer than 3 goals only once in his past 6 appearances. It’s surprising that this matchup is priced evenly; Anaheim should without question be favored.

Canadiens vs Ducks prediction: Anaheim ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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The St. Louis Blues continue their road trip with a stop in San Jose to face the Sharks. This marks the first meeting between the two teams, which are experiencing very different seasons. The Blues are unlikely to reach the playoffs and are looking to trade some players ahead of today’s trade deadline. While they have recently won two games in a row, it’s important not to overlook the fact that they are currently last in the Central Division with a road record of 9-17-3.

The Sharks, on the other hand, have shown improvement this year and find themselves in an interesting position. The Pacific Division is still wide open due to its overall weakness, which means San Jose might consider adding players before the trade deadline to improve its chances. They have won three consecutive games, including a convincing 7-5 victory over the Montreal Canadiens just a couple of nights ago. The Sharks’ blue line needs reinforcing, as many teams are also looking to improve in that area. For tonight’s matchup, they are the stronger team on paper and possess the offensive firepower to challenge whoever starts in goal for the Blues. Expect them to come out with energy and aim for another win.

Blues vs Sharks prediction: Sharks ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.