Parlays

The Atlanta Braves head to Cincinnati for the weekend, and they arrive sporting the best record in baseball. The Braves have done while overcoming a ton of early injuries, too. The pitching staff was almost entirely a replacement staff at one point, and several key bats have been hurt at times. Nevertheless, the Braves keep winning. The Reds are playing good baseball themselves, even if they are in 4th place in the crowded NL Central. Still, it is hard to go against the Braves here for multiple of reasons, and I will be grabbing this line before it inevitably loses value.

The Braves should have the advantage on the mound as Grant Holmes faces Chris Paddock. Holmes will not go deep into the game, but the innings he gives Atlanta are almost always quality. Paddock, on the other hand, is a pitcher I never want anything to do with. The Reds are trying to milk the last couple of drops out of his career, but in 2 starts with the Reds, Paddock has allowed 5 runs in 10 innings of work. Being a groundball pitcher helps mitigate Great American a little bit, but still, this is not a guy I want to back. Both guys are likely done by the 5th inning, so the bullpens are important. Atlanta has the 3rd-best bullpen ERA in the league. Cincinnati? The 4th-worst. Give me the Braves, all day.

Braves vs Reds Prediction: Atlanta Braves ML (-140) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -160.

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The Chicago Cubs have been the streakiest team in baseball this season, now riding a two-game win streak following a 10-game losing skid. Shota Imanaga (4.04 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) gets the start for Chicago looking to make it three straight wins facing a St. Louis Cardinals squad that’s now dropped four in a row. Imanaga is coming off his worst stretch of the year and arguably of his career, allowing 15 ER in his last 10.1 IP, though he still sits in the 68th percentile with a 3.40 xERA and sits in the 86th percentile in pitching run value; he faces a Cardinals lineup with weaker splits against left-handed pitching.

Despite his recent form, I’d still give Imanaga the edge over STL starter Andre Pallante (3.76 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). Oddly enough, Pallante has been worse off starting at home, posting a 4.82 ERA when playing in Busch Stadium and a 2.67 mark when on the road. He’ll be facing a Chicago lineup that ranks top-6 in wRC+ and OBP against RHP, scoring 17 runs over the last two games. With all things considered, I’ll take Chicago to extend the win streak to three.

Cubs vs Cardinals prediction: Cubs ML (-135) at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

The Seattle Mariners will look to keep their offense rolling after outscoring the Athletics 22-4 in their previous series as they prepare to take on a red-hot Arizona Diamondbacks team. Arizona has won nine of its last 10 games, and in that span, they’re averaging 5.7 runs per game and hitting .287. For the Mariners, they’re averaging 4.5 runs per game and are hitting .225 and have won six of their last 10 games. 

For Arizona, Zac Gallen will get the start. Gallen enters with a 3-4 record, 4.80 ERA, and a 1.44 WHIP, but he’s shown signs of improvement lately, going 2-0 with a 3.97 ERA over his last two starts. Seattle will counter with George Kirby, who is 5-4 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season. However, Kirby has struggled recently, dropping his last two starts while posting a 6.94 ERA in that span. The Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball during the month of May, which makes this a difficult matchup for Kirby. He struggled against the Royals and Padres in recent outings, and neither lineup has been swinging the bats nearly as well as Arizona right now. While both starters are capable of settling in and pitching effectively, each has also shown inconsistency this season. With Arizona’s surging offense and Seattle coming off a dominant offensive series of its own, this matchup sets up well for runs to be scored on both sides. Rather than trusting either team outright, the better value looks to be on the over in what could turn into another high-scoring game. 

Diamondbacks vs Mariners prediction: Over 7 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable up to 8 runs (-110).