Parlays

The Montreal Canadiens will be trying to take a commanding 3-1 lead in their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Buffalo Sabres when these 2 teams tangle again in Montreal on Tuesday night. Having won consecutive contests by a combined margin of 11-3, the Habs have a ton of momentum heading into Game 4. I think they should be able to maintain it, so my Sabres vs Canadiens pick is for the home team to prevail. As a 6-2 scoreline in Game 3 suggests, the Canadiens were by far the superior side on Sunday. They produced more shots and more hits, won more faceoffs and compiled fewer penalty minutes. The Sabres scored just 1 goal in 5-on-5 situations. Montreal found the back of the net 4 times in 5-on-5, and none of its goals came on an empty net. It was simply legitimate domination from start to finish.

Perhaps even more alarming for Buffalo is that it got clobbered in Game 2 at home even though it came up with more shots and more hits while taking fewer penalty minutes. That would indicate that Montreal is getting more high-danger scoring chances and also better goaltending. And that would be true. Jakub Dobes has amassed a 2.13 goals-against average and .918 save percentage during these playoffs. The Sabres, on the other hand, have a decision to make regarding goalies Alex Lyon and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Neither one inspires much confidence. Luukkonen started the first 2 games of round 1 against the Bruins, during which he was saddled with a dreadful 4.19 GAA and a .821 SVP. UPL hasn’t been seen on the ice since. Lyon came out hot when he got his opportunity, but he has allowed a ridiculous 9 goals in his last 2 starts. The Habs have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matchups and 8 of the last 11. Seven of those 8 victories have come by multiple goals.

Sabres vs Canadiens Game 4 prediction: Montreal ML (-134) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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The Anaheim Ducks aim to maintain their momentum in Game 5 against the Vegas Golden Knights. After securing a 4-3 victory, they have tied the series at two games apiece. However, winning at least one more game on the road remains a significant challenge. Throughout the season, Anaheim has struggled to generate offence on the road, as evidenced by the first two games of the series. While they managed to steal Game 2, they faltered in Game 3, losing 6-2. Goaltending continues to be a concern, but there is a positive note: Lukas Dostal performed well in his two starts at the beginning of the series.

Vegas is the stronger team on paper and has shown they can get contributions from all players in the lineup. Mark Stone is questionable for Game 5, and although his absence would affect both the offence and defence, this is a veteran group that knows how to succeed. The Golden Knights need to increase their shots on goal, as it’s only a matter of time before some find the back of the net. This game is likely to be closely contested, but we expect Vegas to take care of business in regulation and secure the win.

Ducks vs Golden Knights Prediction: Golden Knights 3-Way ML (+105) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The New York Yankees suffered a series sweep against the Milwaukee Brewers. Now sitting second in the AL East, they will look to reset against the division rivals Baltimore Orioles. Manager Aaron Boone isn’t worried his team going 1-8 against teams above .500 this season, and luckily for the Yankees, the Orioles are 5 games below .500. The Yankees have already swept the Orioles once this year, and as they look to keep their winning ways going against teams below .500, they will send lefty Ryan Weathers to the mound. He is 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA. The Orioles will counter with Brandon Young, who is 3-1 with a 4.35 ERA. 

While the Yankees have now lost 4 of their last 5 games, this month has not been a great one for the Orioles — as they have lost 7 of their last 10 matchups. Offensively, the Orioles are batting .218 and averaging 3.6 runs per game compared to the Yankees, who are hitting .270 and averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last 10. As far as pitching goes, the Orioles hold a 6.51 ERA in that same span while the Yankees boast a 3.22 mark. While the Yankees may have been swept by the Brewers, their starting pitching has been great — it was their bullpen that let them down late in the game. Still, the Yankees feature the second-best bullpen ERA in all of the majors, sitting at a 3.25 ERA compared to the Orioles’ 4.39 ERA. At the end of the day, I trust Weathers and this Yankees offense more than I do the Orioles — which is why I’m backing New York as my best bet of the day. 

Yankees vs Orioles prediction: Yankees ML (-170) available at time of publishing. Playable up to – 180.

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The Tampa Bay Rays face the Toronto Blue Jays in a matchup that sets up as one of the stronger pitching-driven games on the board, making the under an appealing angle. Tampa Bay hands the ball to Drew Rasmussen, who has continued his excellent start to the 2026 season with elite command and consistent weak contact production. Rasmussen has been especially effective at limiting damage early in counts, forcing hitters into uncomfortable at-bats while keeping traffic off the bases. His ability to generate ground-balls and avoid hard contact has made him one of the more reliable run prevention arms in the American League, and that profile plays well against a Toronto lineup that has been more inconsistent offensively than in previous years.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman gives Toronto an equally strong presence on the mound. Gausman’s splitter continues to be one of the best swing-and-miss pitches in baseball, and he has done a strong job limiting big innings while working deep into games. Tampa Bay’s offense has been competitive, but it remains more focused on situational hitting and manufacturing runs rather than explosive power output. That style becomes harder to sustain against a strike thrower like Gausman, who rarely gives away free baserunners. Both teams also enter this matchup with reliable bullpen support behind their starters, further reinforcing the likelihood of a lower-scoring game overall. With Rasmussen and Gausman both capable of controlling the pace early and neither offense projected to consistently generate traffic against quality pitching, this matchup profiles as a tight, low-scoring battle from start to finish.

Blue Jays vs Rays prediction: Under 7.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros open a new division series Monday evening with George Kirby (2.94 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) on the bump for the visitors while Peter Lambert (2.42 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) starts for Houston. Both pitchers have been solid, but you have to give the edge to Kirby — who sits 93rd percentile in pitching run value and 87th percentile with a 2.77 xERA. Both offenses have had success against right-handed pitching, ranking top-5 in wRC+ vs. RHP. However, there is a drastic dropoff when the bullpens come into play for Houston.

The Astros’ bullpen ranks dead last in MLB with a 6.05 combined ERA. On the contrary, Seattle sits top 10 with a 3.41 combined ERA and a well-rested unit entering this matchup. I’ll lean on Seattle’s pitching staff in this spot and take the Mariners to win the divisional matchup outright on the road.

Mariners vs Astros prediction: Seattle ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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The Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers continue their second-round series with Detroit holding a 2-1 lead heading into Game 4, but momentum shifted after Cleveland’s much-needed 116-109 victory in Game 3. Donovan Mitchell delivered one of his best performances of the postseason with 35 points and 10 rebounds, helping the Cavaliers finally rediscover their offensive rhythm after struggling through the opening 2 games. Cleveland shot nearly 58% from the field and looked significantly more comfortable attacking in transition and creating open perimeter looks. On the other side, Cade Cunningham continued his breakout playoff run with a 27-point triple-double, while Tobias Harris provided another steady scoring effort. Even in defeat, Detroit showed it can consistently challenge Cleveland’s defense through physical play, offensive rebounding and aggressive downhill attacks that continue to generate extra possessions.

Naturally, after Cleveland bounced back in Game 3, the instinctive betting angle would be to lean toward Detroit in Game 4. However, one trend has completely defined Cleveland’s postseason so far: the Cavaliers are now 5-0 at home and 0-5 on the road. Their offensive efficiency, energy level and shot-making have looked dramatically different in Cleveland compared to away games, and Game 3 reinforced just how important home court has become. Detroit has still been competitive throughout the series, but Cleveland’s pace and offensive confidence clearly rise in this environment, creating a much different style of game than what was seen earlier in the matchup.

From a totals perspective, this series is beginning to shift toward offense as both teams grow more comfortable against each other’s defensive schemes. Game 3 cleared the total easily with 225 combined points, and the matchup dynamics continue to favor scoring opportunities. Detroit’s ability to dominate the offensive glass creates valuable second-chance points, while Cleveland’s improved perimeter shooting at home stretches the floor and increases tempo. With both backcourts attacking aggressively and neither defense consistently containing star creators, this projects as another competitive, fast-paced game that should feature plenty of scoring throughout all 4 quarters.

Pistons vs Cavaliers Game 4 prediction: Over 213.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 214.5.

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Do I think the Lakers are winning this game? Probably not. Oklahoma City looks every bit like a championship-caliber team and is likely on its way to another totle. But playoff betting is about spots and numbers, not simply predicting who advances. This is a massive spread attached to a team led by LeBron James facing elimination at home. That matters.

The Lakers are effectively free-rolling here. Expectations are low, the market has largely buried them, and that creates value when taking this many points with a veteran-led group. LeBron’s history in clutch scenarios speaks for itself. Even at this stage of his career, he remains capable of controlling tempo, elevating teammates and keeping games competitive through sheer force of will and basketball IQ. The Thunder are the better team, but closeout games can become uncomfortable for favorites, especially on the road. If the Lakers are still around entering the fourth quarter, pressure subtly shifts toward Oklahoma City. That’s all you need when catching double-digits. The points provide enough cushion to make Los Angeles the value side.

Thunder vs Lakers prediction: Los Angeles +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.

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