Parlays

In the battle of the teams with the two best records in the NBA between the Detroit Pistons and the Oklahoma City Thunder, Detroit got the better end of the deal. The Pistons defeated OKC 124-116. And although the Pistons were -10.5 favorites and failed to cover, their stock is through the roof. The market is rushing to back the Pistons now, because on paper they are the team to beat in the NBA. This is all based on narrative, however. The optics are attractive, but the situation is far from alluring.

The Cavaliers and Pistons have a long-storied divisional rivalry. Cleveland and Detroit to keep it simple, do not like each other. It’s easy to overlook all of that, after a resounding win like the Pistons enjoyed on Wednesday. However, the Thunder were severely nicked up, so it wasn’t like the Pistons beat OKC at their peak. It’s important not to overreact. In a rivalry of this nature, the box scores, records and previous results go out the window. Cleveland taking back a modest number here is a show of respect for the level of feuding between these two Central Division foes. The Cavs just got clipped by the Bucks in Milwaukee, though, so it’s easy to write off the Cavaliers in a a step up in competition. However, they may have been looking ahead to this match. The Land has the offensive firepower to stay with the Pistons for a full 4 quarters and if their perimeter operations are in form, the Cavaliers can win this outright.

Cavaliers vs Pistons prediction: Cleveland +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Knicks enter this Eastern Conference matchup as one of the more balanced teams in the league, averaging just over 117 points per game while allowing roughly 110 at home. Jalen Brunson continues to pace the offense at around 26/27 points per night, with Karl-Anthony Towns providing interior scoring and rebounding, and strong two-way contributions from Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart. The Knicks’ ability to score efficiently in the half court while defending without fouling has fueled their recent consistency, and they’ve already shown they can dictate tempo in this matchup. Their assist-to-turnover ratio has also improved during this stretch, highlighting cleaner execution late in games and better shot selection in crunch time situations.

The Milwaukee Bucks have played better of late, winning 8 of their last 10, but questions remain — particularly defensively and on the glass. Milwaukee’s offense remains dangerous thanks to perimeter shooting and improved secondary scoring, yet without peak defensive stability, they can struggle against disciplined, high efficiency teams. Opponents have found success attacking mismatches and generating second-chance points, an area where New York thrives. If the Knicks control the boards, win the possession battle, and limit transition looks, their depth and offensive versatility should create separation over 4 quarters.

Knicks vs Bucks Prediction: New York -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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The Memphis Grizzlies enter this matchup in the lower half of the Western Conference and have struggled for consistency amid injuries and roster turnover. They have dropped 7 of their last 8 and have had issues on the glass, often getting outworked in second-chance opportunities. With several key contributors sidelined and a younger rotation stepping into larger roles, Memphis has leaned into slower, half-court possessions to manufacture quality looks. Their offense has lacked consistent explosiveness, making tempo control and defensive effort critical to staying competitive.

The Dallas Mavericks have also navigated lineup adjustments recently, splitting games while relying on structured half-court execution and balanced scoring rather than pace. Dallas has been more deliberate offensively, working deep into the shot clock and prioritizing efficiency over transition opportunities. Recent meetings between these teams have trended lower scoring, including a 102-96 result earlier this season. With both sides favoring controlled possessions and neither operating at peak offensive rhythm, this matchup projects as methodical rather than explosive — especially without Cooper Flagg on the floor tonight.

Grizzlies vs Mavericks prediction: Under 239 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 237.5.

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The Vegas Golden Knights will take on the Washington Capitals Friday night. Both teams won their first game following the Olympic break. The Golden Knights currently rank fourth in the Western Conference. They are averaging 3.38 goals per game, eighth most in the NHL. The Golden Knights also score on 25.75% of powerplays leading to a total of 43 goals this season. While the Golden Knights scoring has been impressive, they also give up the third-fewest shots against them in the NHL. Basically, the Golden Knights have been clicking all season and they showed that in the first game back.

The Capitals currently rank ninth in the Eastern Conference. They are averaging 3.18 goals per game while giving up 2.88 goals. Those numbers are good, but there are some issues I see for the Capitals in this one. First, they rank third in powerplay opportunities against them, while the Golden Knights have the fewest power play opportunities against them. Second, the Golden Knights boast a great powerplay and the Capitals have given up 40 powerplay goals this season. Finally, if the Capitals are given a powerplay, they only score on 16.29%; the Golden Knights have a penalty kill of 80.74%. Overall, I think Vegas will control both sides of the puck in this one. Give me the Golden Knights on the money line.

Golden Knights vs Capitals prediction: Vegas ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Both the Buffalo Sabres and Florida Panthers began their respective post-Olympic schedules with victories. The Sabres defeated the Devils on Wednesday, and the Panthers took down the Maple Leafs on Tuesday. Both teams allowed just a single goal in their respective contests earlier this week, and that low-scoring trend should continue in this one. Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 29 shots in Thursday’s win, which means we will likely see backup Daniil Tarasov between the pipes for Florida. Tarasov has been decent when called upon, as his save percentage on the season is just a tick below .900 and his goals-against average is a formidable 2.83. Tarasov should be up to the task of slowing down Tage Thompson and company.

It would be a bit surprising to see these teams find great success on the man advantage in this contest. The Buffalo powerplay has been fairly ineffective on the road this season, as the Sabres rank 23rd in the NHL with a road powerplay percentage of 17.1%. The Panthers have had their issues this season, but the penalty kill has been strong. In fact, both of these teams rank in the top-7 of the league with penalty kills operating at rates of over 82%. With the Sabres hanging on to a wild-card spot and the Panthers fighting for their playoff lives, I’m expecting this matchup to produce a physical, low-scoring total. Look to the under.

Sabres vs Panthers prediction: Under 6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Winnipeg Jets meet the Anaheim Ducks for a Friday night, Western Conference matchup in the NHL. Anaheim dominated Winnipeg earlier in the season in a 4-1 win, but how will this one play out? Here is our expert Jets vs. Ducks prediction to help uncover the answer.

The Ducks came out of the Olympic break hot, scoring 6 goals and beating Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the Edmonton Oilers. The Pacific Division is extremely tight, with all teams from 1st to 6th within range of each other. Every point matters, which means the Ducks need to show up and earn them. On home ice, Anaheim has excelled with an 18-8-1 record, while Winnipeg has struggled on the road at 10-15-3. This Winnipeg team has had a surprisingly miserable season, and any hope for the playoffs is extremely low. Winnipeg is also missing 2/3 of their entire defense corps (Morrissey, Pionk, Fleury, Miller), as well as Nino Niederreiter. Their roster is poor as is, and a young, exciting, and reasonably deep Ducks team should be able to outmatch them in many aspects of the game. For our Jets vs. Ducks prediction, we are siding with Anaheim on the money line.

Jets vs Ducks prediction: Ducks ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

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Dayton just whacked the #23 team in the country in St. Louis on Tuesday, leading by as much as 25 against the Billikens in route to a 77-62 win. A result of that magnitude is bound to create an overreaction. Against a 16-12 Revolutionaries team, the Flyers should notch their 20th win or so the market perceives. And yet, Dayton comes in priced in the same range when they beat St. Louis on Tuesday. A possession-plus the hook underdog.

This has shades of the Miami-UNC game that we handicapped earlier this month after the Tar Heels stunned the Blue Devils in Chapel Hill. No one gave UNC a chance to beat the Blue Devils, who are now the #1 team in the country by the way, and despite trailing the entirety of the contest, UNC won a walk-off three-pointer. Subsequently, the Heels came in flat against the Canes in a match that had an odd line with Miami initially favored. Obviously no two games are the same but the context is similar, Dayton just achieved their signature win this season and now they are on the road with a short turnaround where they are prone to be flat. That’s why the Revolutionaries are favored. Another thing to consider is what happened against the Bills. Dayton shot an unsustainable 64% from the field in the first half and built up a huge lead from otherworldly shooting. Once the Flyers cooled off, the Bills were able to mount a run, but it was too much to overcome. In other words, Tuesday’s result was an outlier and the oddsmakers expect Dayton to regress to the mean against a GW team that can score at will (83 points per game) and sits 11-3 in their own barn. Dayton is just 4-5 SU away from home. With a Blue Out staged, this is an uncomfortable spot for the Flyers to follow up on and the line says things come full circle in D.C.

Dayton vs George Washington prediction: George Washington -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A colossal Big Ten matchup takes place tonight in Champaign, Illinois, when the Michigan Wolverines meet the Illinois Fighting Illini at the State Farm Center at 8:00 pm ET on FOX. Michigan dropped its game against Duke on Saturday, but the Wolverines have been in great form in Big Ten play, winning 12 straight against conference opponents. Meanwhile, Illinois is 3 games behind Michigan in a 3-way tie for 2nd after dropping 3 of their last 5 games — all in overtime. That includes their most recent outing in Los Angeles, where the Illini blew a 22-point first-half lead and lost to UCLA in the extra period thanks to a Donovan Dent full-court driving layup as time expired. This will be the first meeting between the Wolverines and Illini this year, although Illinois has absolutely owned this series of late — winning 9 of the last 10. There is also an added storyline in this one, as Michigan’s Morez Johnson returns to Illinois to play against his former team after what some considered a messy departure.

It’s hard to go against Illinois in what amounts to be an electric atmosphere at home, but it’s hard not to like this matchup for the Wolverines — a team that has double-digit wins in some of the most difficult venues in the country like Mackey Arena and Breslin Center. This game is going to come down to Illinois hitting its threes. The Illini are around 36% from deep in conference play, but that number has regressed in their last 5 outings. Three of those games were on the road, 2 being out west, so it’s an understandable lull, but Michigan has elite perimeter size to contest Illinois’ shots anywhere on the court. Missed threes from above the key will just turn into transition-starters for the Wolverines, and it’s tough to stop this offense once it gets going downhill with momentum.

Illinois has elite size to line up against Michigan, but the Illini big men want to shoot more than they want to get physical in the paint, which I feel is an advantage for a Michigan team that just played against a big, physical front court in Duke on Saturday. Speaking of advantages, Illinois’ usual edge on the glass is negated in this matchup, as the Wolverines attack the glass hard – specifically on the offensive end.  Michigan’s offense revolves around Yaxel Lendeborg, for whom Illinois doesn’t really have a direct defensive answer, but the Wolverines are also elite at finding the right shot — boasting the nation’s 2nd-best assist rate on the road and a top-20 assist rate nationally on the season overall. That type of selflessness can give Illinois’ drop coverage some issues. All things considered, I expect Michigan to be in a good position to win in a hostile environment on Friday night. Illinois’ extreme three-point variance will prevent me from locking this in as a best bet, but I’m taking the Wolverines on the money line. 

Michigan vs Illinois prediction: Michigan ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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Friday night brings us MAC basketball, and we have a clash between 2 of the top teams in the conference as the Kent State Golden Flashes host the Akron Zips. Talk all you want about the undefeated Miami RedHawks, but for my money Akron is the best team in this conference. We are heading for an ugly situation in which Akron wins the conference tournament and Miami is suddenly on the bubble. The metrics sites agree, too, as the Zips are the highest-rated team in the conference. They smashed the Flashes by 17 in the first meeting, and they should do it again — even on the road. I will take Akron -4 all day long.

Kent State is not bad, but Akron really is the class of the MAC. Both teams play fast and shoot a lot of threes while also allowing opponents to fork up a bunch of attempts from long range. As a result, there are a lot of long rebounds — which has helped both squads pull in a lot of offensive boards. Still, Akron does all these things better than Kent State. It might surprise you to learn that Akron is in the top 10 nationally in effective FG% and certainly that is partly a product of the schedule — but it is a clear signal that this is the better team. Give me the Zips.

Akron vs Kent State prediction: Akron -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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