Parlays

San Francisco has curb appeal this time of year. Once February and March hit, the Dons get priced like a program you can trust, while Oregon State fresh off a blowout loss to Gonzaga and new to the WCC conversation, gets treated like a generic underdog. That perception gap is exactly how you end up with a number like this one, but the margin is built on an assumption that Oregon State can’t stay functional for meaningful stretches. The Beavers have already shown they can.

Ignore the baseline season stats for a moment. Yes, Oregon State ranks near the bottom nationally in scoring and field-goal efficiency, but the profile isn’t as hopeless as it looks. In their recent drubbing against Gonzaga, they weren’t offensively dead on arrival—10-of-18 from three is a real signal, because it shows they can manufacture points even against an elite defense. Pair that with Oregon State’s naturally sluggish pace, and you get the most important ingredient for an underdog cover: a shortened game where every possession is worth more. The box score optics will mislead where the blowout becomes the headline. However, this essential wrinkle we mentioned gets ignored. Finally, there is one other key question: is San Francisco currently worthy being this kind of favorite? Their form says no. They are just 14-12 SU, a team 1-4 overall in its last five, and 2-3 ATS in that span. This is not the profile you want laying near double digits to a team with a team like the Beavers who do have offensive upside and the ability to shorten games. Oregon State doesn’t need to win here, they just need to be competent versus a slumping favorite.

Oregon State vs San Francisco prediction: Oregon State +8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.

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At first glance, this looks like a strange price. Memphis is just 2–6 straight up on the road, yet the Tigers are still favored in a difficult environment against a disciplined North Texas team. That alone tells you something about the power rating gap the oddsmakers still see between these programs. North Texas attracts support because of its home-court reputation, where the Mean Green are 9-3 straight up. They also play with a defensive-minded and physical style, but that same style creates thin margins. When games are played in the half court with limited possessions, the outcome often comes down to shot-making. That’s where Memphis has the edge.

The Tigers have more perimeter shot creators and can generate more ways to manufacture offense when a possession breaks down. The Mean Green meanwhile, sit among the worst nationally in three-point percentage (339th) and are just above 300th nationally in field goal percentage (43%). UNT lives and dies by their defense. But Memphis can adapt. The Tigers are better from beyond the arc and they let off 61 field goals per game overall on average (150th nationally). The key here is offensive ceiling versus offensive control. The Tigers have the higher ceiling even if North Texas can dictate tempo. However, UNT doesn’t have the scoring pop to create separation routinely. Memphis, even in road struggles, is more capable of putting together a decisive stretch that flips a tight game.

The road record may scare bettors off, but that’s already baked into the number and still the Tigers are the chalk. If this comes down to late-game execution, which slow North Texas games often do, the Tigers have the better profile to close it out. That’s why the oddsmakers are leaning on Memphis here. We’ll follow their lead.

Memphis vs North Texas prediction: Memphis -1 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This isn’t a full endorsement of Milwaukee’s current form, but the spot creates value on the number. With the All-Star break approaching, this is the type of game where a team like Oklahoma City may naturally prioritize preservation over urgency. For a contender with its position largely secure, the focus shifts toward managing minutes, rotating deeper into the bench, and avoiding unnecessary wear on core players. That matters when the spread climbs to this range.

Even if the Thunder control the game early, there’s little incentive to push margin late. These pre-break environments often produce quieter second halves, where favorites protect legs rather than extend leads. That’s where large underdogs gain value. Milwaukee, meanwhile, enters with a different mindset. A team struggling for form often treats matchups against elite opponents as a measuring opportunity. With nothing to protect and little external expectation, the Bucks can play freer, extending rotations but still competing for meaningful minutes. The key risk in laying big numbers isn’t who wins, it’s how the final stages unfold. If Oklahoma City is ahead comfortably, the bench-heavy stretch opens the door for a classic backdoor cover. This is strictly about the natural risk of laying a heavy number in a pre-break spot. Grab the points in this one.

Bucks vs Thunder prediction: Bucks +13 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Portland Trail Blazers (26-29) enter this matchup looking to rebound from a 133-109 loss to Minnesota, a game where turnovers (26) and defensive breakdowns proved costly. Jrue Holiday led with 23 points, while Scoot Henderson added 18, but Portland struggled to string together stops. The Blazers average 116.1 points per game on 45.8% shooting, yet they surrender roughly 118.0 PPG, highlighting the up tempo, offense first identity that often leads to inflated totals. They rank seventh in the league in rebounding, creating second chance opportunities that can quickly swing momentum. However, injuries and inconsistent wing production have made their defensive rotations unreliable, especially against teams willing to push pace.

The Utah Jazz (18-37) are coming off a convincing 121-93 win over Sacramento, shooting 54.7% from the field and hitting 15 threes in one of their most efficient outings of the season. Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 23 points, while Lauri Markkanen added 19, giving Utah balanced scoring and spacing. The Jazz have quietly increased their offensive rhythm in recent games, but like Portland, they rank near the bottom tier defensively and struggle containing dribble penetration and transition scoring. With both teams favoring quicker possessions and neither consistently slowing opponents, this sets up as a track meet. Given Portland’s scoring upside and Utah’s recent offensive surge, the ingredients point toward a high possession contest.

Trail Blazers vs Jazz prediction: Over 239 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 240.5.

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With Cooper Flagg being ruled out for Thursday’s game in Los Angeles, the Mavericks are facing an uphill battle to be competitive. Despite the 8-game losing streak Flagg has been the motor of this team, carrying the offense on his back by both scoring the ball but also creating for others. How the team plays without him remains to be seen, in 4 such games the Mavericks have gone 2-2 this season. The Lakers have had their number in head-t-head meetings winning 5 of the last 6 teams, on the road this team is only 2-12 ATS in 14 outings.

LA waived the white flag of surrender even before their last game against San Antonio began. Head coach JJ Redick decided to rest all of his starters as it was a 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario, resulting in a 136-108 loss to the Wemby and the Spurs. With that being the 2nd loss in a row for LA, it’s important for them to bounce back with a win and go into the all-star break on a positive note. They’ve beaten the Mavs in both meetings earlier this season, with Luka Doncic going nuclear against his former team on both occasions. With the Slovenian superstar now out of the line-up, it’ll be up to Redick to come up with a successful gameplan surrounding someone else.

That someone else will likely be Austin Reaves who put up 38 points and collected 8 rebounds against the Mavs earlier his year. The Lakers swingman is back from injury and as time goes on he will start to look like the player who was averaging over 25 points per game before he went out with his calf issue. The Lakers playing at home should give them edge here, I’ll go with them to cover against a weakened Mavs squad.

Mavericks vs Lakers predictions: Lakers -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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