Parlays

The Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays tee it up again on Tuesday night. The Blue Jays continue to maintain a 5-game lead in the AL East, and with each passing week, that 5-game lead looks larger and larger. The Twins, meanwhile, are just begging for the season to end. They have now lost 6 of their last 7 and 10 of 11, including getting walloped last night, 10-4. I am sure they are going to win a few games here and there, but they are a team I am looking to pick on as often as I can down the stretch. The profit here is minimal, but this is a spot where I am willing to just take what should be an easy win. Give me the Blue Jays on the Money Line.

The pitching matchup is not necessarily an advantage for Toronto. Chris Bassitt takes the hill, and at 36 years old, the Jays just want 5 respectable innings out of him. He has been walking people and giving up homers lately, and that needs to stop, but Minnesota can cure a lot of pitching struggles. Bailey Ober has thrown much better lately for the Twins, but he is only a month removed from a stretch where he gave up 7 runs in 3 of 4 starts, and the last time he saw the Blue Jays, they plated 5 on him. The Blue Jays are hitting well, and they just keep finding ways to win. I am riding that.

Twins vs Blue Jays prediction: Blue Jays ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After jumping out to an early 3-0 lead, the Mets’ offense exploded, putting up 13 runs over the last five innings of the game. The Phillies currently hold a six-game lead in the NL East, and this is a series they’re looking to win as they try to keep their division rivals out of the playoff race. The Mets bats have been red-hot as of late, averaging  7.1 runs per game over their last 10, while the Phillies are slightly behind, averaging 6.2 runs per game. 

Taking the mound for the Phillies will be the left-hander Jesus Luzardo, who enters with a 12-6 record and 4.10 ERA. Luzardo has had his ups and downs this season, but it looks like he’s found his groove again, going 4-1 with a 2.32 ERA and has struck out 34 batters in his last 31 innings pitched. For the Mets, Sean Manaea will get the start, entering with a 1-2 record and 5.15 ERA. Manaea started this season off strong, but has struggled lately, going 0-1 with a 7.91 ERA in his last four starts. Luzardo has already picked up one victory against the Mets this year, and I think the Phillies will rebound in a big way against the Mets tonight, making them my best bet of the day. 

Phillies vs Mets prediction: Phillies ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Prior to last night’s meeting, the last time these teams saw each other resulted in a Pirates sweep in which the Cardinals didn’t score a single run over 3 games. The Cardinals have revenge on their minds, and they started the series on the right foot with a 7-6 win on Monday night. Andre Pallante hasn’t been given much run support in recent starts, but that could change as the Cardinals go up against Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller. August has not been kind to Keller, who owns a 9.00 ERA and .359 BAA through 4 starts so far this month. The Pirates are 2-2 in those 4 games, but as Keller continues to put his team in a difficult position, the Cardinals could have the advantage offensively.

The Pirates have been an extremely streaky team in the second half. So far in August, Pittsburgh dropped 7 of 8 games from Aug. 9-17 before winning 5 of 7 from Aug. 18-25. They dropped the series opener last night, and could have a tough time finding the win column in Tuesday’s matchup with Keller on the mound. Playing at home, look for the Cardinals to pickup a second consecutive win over the Pirates in this one.

Pirates vs Cardinals prediction: Cardinals ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the best games on this loaded Week 1 slate comes in Tampa Bay, where the Boise State Broncos will take on the South Florida Bulls in a game that has plenty of significance for the future of the Group of 5 playoff picture down the road this season. Boise State enters this difficult contest having lost Ashton Jeany — arguably the best player in program history — to the NFL. However, the Broncos still return plenty of production from last season’s offense, including 4 starters on the offensive line, plus quarterback Maddux Madsen and his top receiving targets in Latrell Caples and Matt Lauter. The ground game won’t be the same without a generational talent like Jeanty, but the Broncos will still have a 2-headed monster in the backfield with Malik Sherrod (Fresno State) and Sire Gaines (7.8 yards per carry in 2024) leading the charge. However, even with Jeanty in the backfield, Boise State still struggled when playing in the southern heat in Week 1 against Georgia Southern last year. That same scenario could play out on Thursday in South Florida, especially since this will be the first time Madsen faces an opposing defense where he will be the main focus.

As for the hosts, USF struggled a season ago due to the inconsistent play it got at the quarterback position from Byrum Brown. However, that was largely due to injury, and while Brown is certainly an injury risk from a long-term perspective this season, he’ll certainly be at this healthiest in Week 1. Alex Golesh is a coach I’m bullish on, and I expect the influx of talent on this roster to be a real difference maker for the veer and chute offense that Golesh likes to run. As long as Brown is given some time by his offensive line, he should see success in this matchup against a Boise State defense that is excellent at getting to the quarterback, but struggled mightily in the back end a season ago. Ultimately, I’ll bank on another close call for the Broncos down south, even if Boise State is able to escape this season opener with a victory.

Boise State vs USF prediction: USF +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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Thursday’s college football slate features a number of games where MAC teams will take on Big Ten opponents, and this matchup in Minneapolis features a combination of factors that I love to target early on in the season. More specifically, we’re getting a team I’m looking to back against a team I’m looking to fade early in the campaign. On one side, Buffalo should be a serious contender for the MAC title in head coach Pete Lembo’s second season at the controls. The Bulls were a much improved defense a season ago, and they’ll be returning 9 starters from a unit that should take another step forward this fall. Buffalo’s offense was certainly not the strength of the team in 2024, but the Bulls do have a decent ground game and they’ll return 3 starters on the offensive line, along with bringing in Ta’Quan Roberson at quarterback to provide a veteran element at the position. This experience and returning production gives me confidence that Buffalo won’t be intimated against a Big Ten foe.

As for the hosts, PJ Flecks group is going to be replacing quite a bit following a strong end to the 2024 season. On offense, the Gophers are going to be without quarterback Max Brosmer, along with 80% of their targets at the wide receiver spot. Yes, Darius Taylor is still a massive weapon out of the backfield, but the veteran running back will be running behind an offensive line that lost a trio of players to the NFL and will be breaking in 5 players at new positions on the line this season. With a redshirt freshman coming in to start at quarterback, I have a hard time believing that Minnesota will do anything but keep things simple in his first start at the collegiate level. With that in mind, the Bulls should be able to key in on Taylor and at least somewhat limit the explosiveness of the Gophers ground game. Lastly, given the fact that the total in this game is in the mid-40’s, there is inherent value on backing an underdog in this spot, particularly when Buffalo can be expected to play at a pretty slow pace. The Gophers should acquiesce to that tempo when they are on offense as well, so I’ll grab the points with the Bulls at +17 or better.

Buffalo vs Minnesota prediction: Buffalo +18.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +17.

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After their first bowl game since 2016, the Nebraska Cornhuskers will look to continue to improve under head coach Matt Rhule as he enters his third season in charge. Their first contest will be against the Cincinnati Bearcats out of the Big 12. Cincinnati struggled late last year in their first year in the Big 12. The Bearcats needed to win one of their final five conference games to qualify for a bowl game, and failed to pick up a victory in that period. They did manage to pick up a win against the soon-to-be Big 12 champions Arizona State before they dropped their last five games. This game will be played at a neutral site at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri as both teams look to start their season off on the right foot.

In years past, Year 3 has proven to be a big year for Matt Rhule. During his previous coaching stints in college at Temple and Baylor, his third season is when his teams hit their stride. To be successful this season, all eyes will be on sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola. Raiola impressed last season with 2819 yards passing on 67% completion, but he still left more to be desired with only 13 touchdowns thrown to 11 interceptions. Raiola will have some new targets to throw to this season with Nebraska bringing in sophomore receiver Hunter Nyziah and senior Key Dane from the transfer portal. Despite the positive outlook heading into the season, Cincinnati will not be an easy week 1 opponent for Nebraska. The Bearcats are led by junior quarterback Brendan Sorsby. Sorsby threw for 2813 yards last season, and he threw 18 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions. Where Cincinnati struggled last season was defensively, allowing 25.7 points per game. Surprisingly this was a huge improvement from 2023 when the Bearcats allowed 32.8 points per game. Cincinnati focused this offseason continuing to build their defense through the transfer portal, so I expect for them to continue to improve on that side of the ball. With both teams trending upward going into this season, I like for this game to remain close. Nebraska may be in for a good year, but the Bearcats have enough talent to test them in Week 1.

Nebraska vs Cincinnati prediction: Cincinnati +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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