Parlays

On numerous occasions, I have written about overreactions and the importance of not “overreacting” to a single result. This is a case study on that philosophy. Let’s rewind. St. John’s just knocked off UConn in Queens on Friday. UConn was coming in with just 1 loss and that was to the the top-ranked team in the country, Arizona. The Huskies were ranked #5 in the polls overall and on paper this was their spot to take care of the Red Storm. The line however suggested otherwise. SJU wasn’t even taking back a full possession, which in turn would indicate that the Johnnies were live. And they were.

St. John’s won 81-72. It managed to make key stops to create separation from Connecticut; it has won 9 straight now. What does the market do? Overreact. Now the Johnnies are a -14.5 favorite after being a +1.5 underdog on Friday. That is a 16-point swing in one go. It is understandable that the Musketeers comparatively speaking are a far easier out from first glance when held up to UConn, but just a couple of weeks ago these 2 sides met in Cincinnati and Xavier lost by just 5 points. Now Xavier is getting nearly 15 points to work with? Sign us up. The drivers of the Connecticut win on Friday innately create an overreaction after an impressive result and they often manifest against a perceived “lesser” opponent like the Musketeers are here. However, this is not the right time to back the Red Storm. That was Friday. This is the time to look the other way because you are getting a Xavier team that knows it can compete with St. John’s at an inflated price. Let’s take the points.

Xavier vs St. John’s prediction: Xavier +14.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +14.

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It is the Monday after the Super Bowl, so if you are just now turning your attention to college basketball, welcome aboard. We have a Monday matchup in the Big Ten, as the Oregon Ducks face the Indiana Hoosiers. Travel is not an issue here, as Oregon has been in the state of Indiana for several days now — having faced Purdue on Saturday. Oregon surprisingly hung in there with the Boilermakers, losing by only 4 points but nevertheless dropping its ninth straight game. Indiana is in the middle of the pack, looking to build on a home victory over USC over the weekend. This is a sneaky spot for the Ducks to cover. I think Indiana wins, but this might be too many points. Give me Oregon +11.5.

Oregon has been decimated by injuries. The Ducks did, however, just get their leading scorer back over the weekend in Nate Bittle. He put up 23 of his team’s 64 points and he did it against a tough Purdue team. When healthy, this Oregon team is not as bad as the record suggests. As for Indiana, it is a bit of a metrics darling. All the metrics love this team — top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency, high in effective FG% and really all the things you look for in a good team. Yet the Hoosiers are 7-6 in conference play, and even their wins are usually close ones. Make no mistake, this is a solid squad that can score and is fun to watch, but its metrics seem to be outpacing real-life performance. The Hoosiers might not blow Oregon away. It is also noteworthy that both teams sit outside the top 200 in terms of pace, so a slower game that is in the upper 60s or lower 70s is very much in line — and that might not be enough to cover a double-digit spread. I’ll take the Ducks.

Oregon vs Indiana prediction: Oregon +11.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.5.

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It is a Big Monday in every sense, with a massive, must-see Big 12 showdown at Allen Fieldhouse between Arizona and Kansas tipping off at 9:00 pm ET on ESPN. Arizona comes into this contest with a perfect 23-0 record, most recently putting an absolute beating on the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday, 84-47. Meanwhile, Kansas has been one of the hottest teams in the country since its loss at West Virginia on January 10, rattling off 7 wins in a row – including Iowa State, BYU and Texas Tech. This will be the first of 2 regular-season meetings between these teams.

The Wildcats boast a top-10 offense from an efficiency standpoint, and they play with top-30 pace. However, I’m expecting the defenses to shine in what could be a lower-scoring affair than the odds suggest. In addition to their top-10 offense, the Wildcats are second nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom) and seventh in effective field-goal percentage allowed. Moreover, they lead the Big 12 in both of those metrics and they also surrender the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the conference.

As for the Jayhawks, they are equipped to slow down this Arizona offense. Against top-50 teams, they are in the 99th percentile in transition defense and 83rd percentile against rim attacks (Hoop-Explorer), in addition to thirrd nationally in mid-range percentage allowed (Haslametrics) — which are all huge defensive attributes against an Arizona defense that doesn’t shoot many threes. In fact, only 3 teams in the country have a lower 3-point rate than the Wildcats. Offensively, the Jayhawks are shooting close to 44% from distance in 3 top-50 home games and 41% in 6 top-100 games at the Phog — which is significantly above their season baseline. I expect that to regress against the length of Arizona’s defense. This has all the makings of a classic, but the total feels a little too high considering the perceived matchup advantages these defenses have. Of course, overtime is always a concern, but I’m taking a liking to the under in this one. 

Arizona vs Kansas prediction: Under 151.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 149.5. 

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The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation when they host the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night. Minnesota is reeling in a big way right now. It squandered an 18-point second-half lead over the lowly Pelicans on Friday and then got absolutely blown out at home by the Clippers on Sunday. Playing the third game in four nights on the heels of those two disasters is not a recipe for success. Moreover, the T-Wolves are 1-3 straight up in their last 4 overall and 5-8 in their last 13. Although the Hawks are nothing special, they are more than capable of capitalizing on an extremely vulnerable opponent. My Hawks vs Timberwolves prediction is for the visitors to cover.

Atlanta was active prior to the trade deadline, but its starting 5 is basically the one it has been playing with for most of the season and reserves CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert have already gotten plenty of games under their belt with their new team. The chemistry is there for the new-look Hawks, who are a solid 6-3 in their last 9 outings. Home-court advantage may not be a huge boost for the ‘Wolves. They are a decent 17-9 at the Target Center in 2025-26, but the Hawks are actually better on the road than they are at home (16-13 compared to 10-15). Give me Atlanta to keep it close.

Hawks vs Timberwolves prediction: Atlanta +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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Following a minor bump on the road in LA, the 76ers are back on cruise control following a win in Phoenix and now their thoughts are on the Portland Trail Blazers as they wrap up this demanding 5-game West Coast road trip. With 3 wins in 4 games, we can already say it has been a successful past couple of weeks for Philly, but a win in Portland would certainly put a bow over this stretch. Odds are on the Sixers’ side coming Monday’s game — not really surprising considering they are 15-9 SU in road games this season and have a positive record against this team with 4 wins in 6 games played. Most importantly, though, apart from Paul George there are no absentees from the lineup at this point.

And that’s the biggest difference between the 2 sides coming into Monday’s game. Portland’s best player, Deni Avdija, is really struggling with his back issue right now. He has not played in the month of February so far and with all-star weekend approaching he could very well be given extra time to fully recover. Without him they were able to beat the Memphis Grizzlies in back-to-back games, but that’s hardly a measuring point given that Memphis isn’t really trying to win at the moment. Prior to that the Trail Blazers had a 6-game losing streak, with 5 of the teams beating them being from the East. They have covered only once in their last 6 games overall, while against Atlantic Division opponents their record reads 1-5 SU in 6 games.

Closing out this road trip with a win is really important for the 76ers, who have found new life ever since Joel Embiid started playing and producing on a consistent basis. Portland finds itself in the bottom half of the NBA in terms of points allowed in the paint; that’s where Embiid does most of his damage. The big fella has scored 37, 35, 39, 32 and 35 points over the last 5 meetings, so good luck stopping him. I’m backing the Sixers with confidence.

76ers vs Trail Blazers prediction: Philadelphia -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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Losing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to an injury is proving to be a stumbling block for the OKC Thunder, who have now lost back-to-back games. For any team in the NBA that would be nothing out of the ordinary, but for the 40-13 SU defending champs it’s always a stunner when something like this happens. Despite the losing streak, they head into LA as favorites to take on the Lakers — hoping to go up 2-0 in the regular-season series following a 121-92 win against them back in mid-November. OKC is yet to lose 3 games in a row this season; you can bet that they will be playing with an extra edge in order for that not to happen.

Meanwhile, the Lakers will be full of confidence as well following their third win in a row. Playing without Luka Doncic wasn’t detrimental as we thought it would be — at least not against a team like the Warriors, whom they disposed of 105-99. LA has played only 22 home games this season compared to 29 on the road, so you could say that a favorable stretch is coming for them and it’s important to stay locked in. The offense hasn’t collapsed without Doncic as many people thought it would. Austin Reaves is back from injury and doing his best to fill in the gaps. With the addition of Luke Kennard, I think the Lakers will improve a fair bit from downtown.

OKC will probably win outright, but I feel like the Lakers aren’t without a chance despite missing Doncic. They have the advantage of playing at home, plus the Thunder just played yesterday and lost to the Rockets — which means they have very little time to rest and recover. The Lakers have covered 6 times in the last 8 home games and I’m confident they’ll keep things close or possibly even win.

Thunder vs Lakers prediction: Los Angeles +5.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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