Parlays

The Iowa Hawkeyes will travel to Bloomington on Saturday afternoon to play a Big 10 Conference game against the Indiana Hoosiers. Both Iowa and Indiana have first year coaches looking to get to their programs to the NCAA Tournament, and this game could have a massive effect on that. The Hawkeyes have lost three straight games, and Indiana has lost two straight, so the urgency will be in the air on Saturday. It should be a very close game as the spread suggests but I expect Indiana to pull out the win.

Indiana is currently -2.5 on their home floor and the Hoosiers to cover are my best bet of the game. I like Indiana to cover this spread because their offense should be able to score efficiently. Iowa is ranked highly in adjusted defensively efficiency on KenPom, but their effective field goal percentage and two-point defense is outside the top 100.  Indiana’s offense is ranked #22 in effective field goal percentage and #13 in two-point percentage while Iowa’s defense is ranked #105 and #173. I do not see Iowa stopping the Indiana offense enough on their home floor for them to cover. Take Indiana -2.5 here.

*Indiana -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -3*

After losing their first game of the season against Wisconsin, the Wolverines bounced back in a big way against Washington, shooting 46.4% from the floor while holding the Huskies to just 37.5% shooting. Michigan will look for a similar response when they face the Oregon Ducks on Saturday afternoon. According to KenPom, Michigan ranks 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 6th in adjusted tempo, making them one of the most well-rounded teams in the country. 

Oregon, on the other hand, is ranked 92nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, 96th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 228th in adjusted tempo. The Ducks prefer to play at a slower pace, so they will need to find a way to keep Michigan out of transition and avoid falling behind early. It won’t be easy as the Wolverines are averaging 46.1 rebounds per game compared to Oregon’s 41.5. Oregon does have Nate Bittle, who is averaging 16.3 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, along with three other players averaging double figures. However, Michigan counters with Yaxel Lendebord, who is averaging 14.6 points and 6.9 rebounds, and the Wolverines have five additional players averaging double digits. Oregon is coming off a 90-55 loss to No. 8 Nebraska, and a similar result could be in store. Michigan’s depth and efficiency on both ends should be the difference, making the Wolverines my best bet of the day. 

Michigan vs Oregon prediction: Michigan -18.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The in-state rivalry between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Texas Longhorns hits the hardwood on Saturday night in Austin at 6:00 pm ET on ESPN. Texas A&M comes into this game off a 2OT loss at Tennessee on Tuesday, and will be facing their 2nd straight road game and 3rd in 4 outings. Meanwhile, after starting 0-2 in conference play, the Longhorns have won 2 straight over Alabama and Vanderbilt and aim to make it 3 in a row against their heated rival.

I worry about Texas A&M here, especially off a 2OT game mid-week. The Aggies boast a top-3 defense in league play thus far, but they’ve been pummeled on the glass – specifically on the defensive end. They are dead last in the SEC in offensive rebounding rate allowed, giving up an average of 13.5 of them on the road. That could spell disaster in Austin on Saturday, as the Longhorns are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, averaging 11.6 per game (30th) while ranking top-40 in potential points off second-chance opportunities and second-chance conversion rate (Haslametrics). Texas should be able to exploit this mismatch and continue to build on their 15+ second-chance points per game, which is in the 96th percentile nationally per CBB Analytics. 

The Longhorns should also be able to produce points at the free throw line consistently throughout this game given they are 1st nationally in free throw rate. Texas A&M will likely oblige, as the Aggies are 216th nationally in free throw rate allowed and 11th in the SEC. Look for Texas’ rebounding edge and free throw disparity to be the difference.

Texas A&M vs Texas prediction: Texas Longhorns -3.5 (-112) at the time of publishing. Playable to -4. 

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Many pontificators in the betting world thought the Jaguars would successfully move on to the Divisional Round, anchored by Liam Coen and their new-look defense. That never came to be. Instead, Buffalo secured their first road playoff win since 1992, led by more heroic efforts from Josh Allen. The esteemed Bills quarterback seemed to injure his knee and throwing hand on the same drive early in the game, but that didn’t stop him from accruing 306 total yards and 3 total touchdowns. When it mattered, Trevor Lawrence threw 2 key interceptions, one on the final drive, to seal the Buffalo victory. 

As usual, the Allen-led offense was more than effective, answering the call whenever needed. On the other hand, the Bills’ defense played good, not great, only a few times making stops when it mattered. Not ideal was that Jacksonville went 5-9 on 3rd downs and 3-4 in the red zone. In truth, if it wasn’t for Lawrence’s 2 interceptions, the final result might’ve been different. As usual, the onus of Buffalo’s future will remain with Allen and his ability, since we suspect their defense will continue to allow plenty of production from opponents. The Bills will face a much greater challenge this coming Saturday, up in elevation in Denver against a Broncos squad that knows how to win and will be coming off extended rest.

Denver is statistically the opposite of Buffalo. They can rely on their defense, a group that’s top-5 in nearly every metric (including a 1st-place ranking in opponent yards per game, 278.2), but their offense seems to only come alive when they need it. Bo Nix and his colleagues mostly present average to below average marks, particularly in yards per pass, where they generate just 6.4 (29th). This is true even though they own one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, permitting a sack on just 3.62% of plays (2nd overall). The good news for Denver is that they are good under pressure, averaging 7.7 points in the 4th quarter and successfully completing 5 4th-quarter comebacks this season. Of course, Josh Allen and the Bills are also pretty good in this category, too, averaging 9.2 4th-quarter points and earning a few 4th-quarter comebacks themselves.

We’re pretty certain this game will come down to the final drive. Since one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks will be facing one of the NFL’s best defenses, that makes this matchup all the more difficult to predict. At face value, the more rested team at home is generally the side to go with, especially considering their prowess on defense. Personally, we’d love to see Buffalo win, but the intangibles favor Denver.

Bills vs Broncos prediction: Broncos +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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If you watched last week‘s game between the 49ers and the Eagles, it wasn’t completely surprising to see the result. Since Brock Purdy has returned as the 49ers’ starting quarterback, their offense has been humming, right up there with the best passing operations in the NFL. Despite throwing 2 interceptions, Purdy was ice cold when it mattered most, going 6-11 on third downs and engineering 13 fourth-quarter points against one of the NFL’s best defenses. Perhaps most impressive about San Francisco’s production was that they only possessed the ball for 24 minutes. 

The Niners defense played well, but some of that is more on Philadelphia’s lackluster offense. The Eagles’ offensive operation has been pedestrian for most of the season, so it wasn’t surprising to see them stumbling through the second half, earning just 6 points and 104 yards in the final 2 quarters. Credit should be given to Robert Saleh and his roster, but we’re also not sure if it’s sustainable. That’s particularly true this weekend.

The Seahawks enter the divisional round off extended rest, and they will host their first playoff game Saturday night. The dominance of their defense has been well documented, completely obliterating San Francisco in their last matchup in Week 18 (they held Brock Purdy and company to just 3 points and 173 yards). Offensively, they left plenty on the field, garnering just 13 points themselves. Most impressively, they ran for 180 yards on 4.6 yards per carry, and completely controlled time of possession because of it (37:48 to 22:12). Their passing attack wasn’t that explosive, but Sam Darnold was efficient (20-26, 198 yards) and the game never felt within reach for the visiting Niners. 

While the rematch might not look the exact same, we are expecting a similar result. San Francisco’s impressive victory last Sunday came at the cost of George Kittle, their all-pro tight end who’s as crucial in blocking as he is in the pass catcher. He tore his Achilles and will be out for the remainder of the season, yet another big loss to a roster that’s been severely beaten up this year. Add to the fact that San Francisco will only have 6 days to prepare for battle after a very physical matchup in the wildcard round and it’s hard not to imagine a Seattle blowout.

49ers vs Seahawks prediction: Seattle Seahawks -7.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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Houston heads to the northeast for a second straight week after knocking out Pittsburgh in Monday’s Wild Card round, 30-6. The Texans cashed as 2.5-point favorites after opening things up in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Steelers, 23-0 to break away from a 7-6 advantage. Now, the Texans are flipped to a short underdog against the AFC East champion Patriots, who also pulled away late from the Chargers in a 16-3 triumph. New England led Los Angeles, 6-3 at the half until QB Drake Maye hooked up with former Charger Hunter Henry for the game’s lone TD in the fourth quarter to send L.A. to 0-3 in the playoffs with Justin Herbert at QB.

We’ll see if New England’s offense can score on Houston’s defense, which led the NFL in yards allowed per game (277.2) and gave up 183.5 passing yards per contest. The Patriots posted a solid 12-5 ATS mark in the regular season, followed up by the cover as 3.5-point favorites over the Chargers. Houston picked up its 10th straight win against Pittsburgh since losing to eventual AFC top-seed Denver at home in Week 9. The Texans have won and covered in the past 4 opportunities in the underdog role, including victories over the Chargers, Bills, and Chiefs.

Houston routed New England last season 41-21 at Gillette Stadium, as Maye threw for 243 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. Texans QB C.J. Stroud looks to overcome his 5 fumbles against the Steelers, as he posted at least 240 passing yards in 3 of 4 road games since returning from his concussion in November. The Patriots have won 11 consecutive games as a favorite since getting stunned in the season opener by the Raiders. Houston’s defense has been exceptional this season and as long as Stroud can hold onto the ball, the Texans are a strong look here as an underdog.

Texans vs Patriots prediction: Houston Texans +3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Four of 6 road teams won during NFL Wild Card weekend, starting with the Rams’ 34-31 victory at Carolina. Although Los Angeles failed to cover as 10.5-point road favorites, the Rams avenged a 31-28 defeat to the Panthers from late November. Los Angeles squandered an early 14-0 lead, but QB Matthew Stafford hit TE Colby Parkinson for the go-ahead score in the final minute, marking the 4th lead change in the final quarter. The Rams travel to frigid Chicago on Sunday night, where temperatures are expected to be below 20 degrees during the day and around 6 degrees at night.

Chicago rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit to stun Green Bay 31-27 for the franchise’s first playoff win since 2010. The Bears scored 25 points in the fourth quarter, highlighted by a pair of TD passes from QB Caleb Williams in his playoff debut. The former top pick finished with 361 passing yards and 2 TDs, marking his first 300+ yard passing performance of the season. Chicago somehow came back in spite of not creating a takeaway after leading the league at +22 in turnovers in the regular season. The Bears have won 7 of their last 8 games at Soldier Field since falling apart in the season-opening defeat to the Vikings.

For the 2nd straight week, the Bears are listed as a home underdog and the Rams are a road favorite. LA posted a 5-2 ATS mark as a road favorite, including the blowout of Jacksonville in London. The 2 non-covers came as a favorite of more than a TD in losses to Atlanta and Carolina, but all 5 covers came by at least 10 points. The Bears have put together an 8-2 ATS record in the role of a dog, including a 2-0 ATS mark at home. The Rams aren’t used to the cold, but let’s back the road favorite here to advance to the NFC Championship.

Rams vs Bears prediction: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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