Parlays

Immediately, several factors are working against the Carolina Panthers in this matchup. Before we get to these factors, we should say that home field advantage has proven to be a significant indicator of playoff success, at least since 2022. Over the past 4 seasons, home teams have gone 18-6 straight up. That being said, and with all due respect to the Carolina Panthers, that might be their only advantage.

That doesn’t mean Carolina can’t win this game. In fact, we’ve seen the Panthers play their best against some of their toughest opponents. One might remember a 30-0 statement in Week 3 after another predictable 0-2 start, a victory that suggested they might not be the same bottom-feeding program we’re used to. They followed with wins against Dallas, at Green Bay, versus Tampa in Week 16 to take control of their own destiny, and a seminal win in Week 13 against the very same Rams. They ran all over Sean McVay’s defense in Week 13, too, piling up 164 on the ground. 

We just have a hard time seeing the same result (or even close) in the Wild Card round. Matthew Stafford, currently leading the odds for MVP, had his worst outing of the year on that fateful Sunday 7 weeks ago. The former Super Bowl champion threw 2 interceptions at crucial parts of the game and lost a fumble on what should have been a game-winning touchdown drive. The Rams’ defense seemed to just take off work, allowing nearly 400 total yards (358) to the usually hapless Panthers. It was the worst we’ve seen LAR all season, which is why we’re confident we won’t see that again on Saturday.

Regression to the mean has a way of swinging back more vicious than it came, and in this instance, we think that’s a very plausible outcome. By every conceivable metric, the Rams are far better than the Panthers. In EPA metrics, the visitors have the 2nd-best offensive rating in the NFL. In the same category, the Panthers rank 26th. Davante Adams, their All-Pro wideout who led the NFL in touchdowns this season, despite missing the last 2 games, is expected to be back for this showdown. Add the retributive element of a rematch and the championship experience of the Rams’ leadership, and we’re anticipating a rare massacre of the home team.

Rams vs Panthers prediction: Rams -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The two oldest rivals in NFL history hook up in the playoffs for the 3rd time ever (1941 and 2010) on Saturday night at Soldier Field. Chicago (11-6) captured the NFC North title for the first time since 2018, overcoming an 0-2 start to win 11 of the final 15 games. Although the Bears lost a meaningless Week 18 game to the Lions, Chicago finished 6-2 at home with the first loss coming in the season-opening meltdown against Minnesota. The Bears posted a strong 11-5-1 ATS mark in head coach Ben Johnson’s first season, as the lone non-cover in a win occurred in the Week 10 comeback victory over the Giants.

Green Bay (9-7-1) stumbled to the finish line with 4 consecutive losses, though its biggest loss was arguably LB Micah Parsons tearing his ACL in the Week 15 setback at Denver. The game that cost the Packers the division title was the Week 16 meltdown at Chicago, blowing a 16-6 lead with 2 minutes remaining in regulation. The Bears scored 10 straight points to force overtime, then QB Caleb Williams connected with D.J. Moore on a 46-yard TD for the 22-16 triumph. Green Bay held off Chicago in the first matchup at Lambeau Field, 28-21 in Week 14, as the Packers are 4-2 against the Bears since Jordan Love took over at QB in 2023.

The Packers are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in the playoffs with Love starting, all played on the road. Green Bay put together a 6-11 ATS mark this season, including a 1-5 ATS record as a road favorite. However, 4 of those non-covers as away chalk came when laying at least a touchdown. Chicago led the league with 23 interceptions and a +22 in the takeaway department. Love finished with 6 interceptions, and 1 of those picks came in the home win over the Bears.

Chicago is seeking its first playoff win since 2010 against Seattle; the Bears lost to the Packers in the NFC Championship that year. Green Bay hasn’t been sharp over the last month, and although the money has moved in favor of the Packers, let’s grab the Bears as a home underdog.

Packers vs Bears prediction: Chicago Bears +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.

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Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have been fantastic in the 2nd half of the season, there is no denying that. New coach Liam Coen clearly has edges as an NFL head coach, both culturally and from a play-calling perspective, and it’s changed the franchise for the better. Since the start of November, their only loss was at the Texans, a barnburner of a contest where they were stymied by an all-world Houston defense, but they have been relatively flawless since. 

Lawrence is top-6 or better in many passing categories, including yards (4,006) and touchdowns (29). Through the air and on the ground, they’re consistent and productive, ranked 12th in EPA metrics. Their defense showed perhaps the most surprising improvement, up to 3rd overall in EPA metrics, including top-3 marks against opposing quarterbacks. 

The difference in this game is experience. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have been a QB-coach tandem in 13 playoff games (this is Coen’s first playoff game as a head coach, Lawrence is 1-2 in his postseason career), and Allen’s performances have been stellar (25 touchdowns, only 4 interceptions). Entering the Wild Card round and after an embattled, clumsy season, Buffalo is as healthy as it’s been all year. And offensively, they’re as buttoned up as they’ve always been, top-3 overall with top-4 rankings in EPA per pass and EPA per run. 

Defensively, it’s a mixed bag. Buffalo thrives against opposing quarterbacks, ranked 7th in defensive EPA per pass, but virtually anyone can run on them. Their 5.1 opponent yards per carry is bottom-3 in the league. Luckily for the Bills, Jacksonville isn’t exceptional on the ground, ranked 27th in yards per carry (4.0) and 20th in yards per game (115.1). 

Home teams typically have a big advantage, but matchup-wise, we see a strong case to be made for the visitors. Allen is one of the most talented players in the history of the NFL, and as a franchise, no team has more experience or more motivation to get further in the postseason than Buffalo. We expect this to be a tightly fought game and a teaser on Jacksonville is a fine option, but there’s only one way we can look in terms of a winner.

Bills vs Jaguars prediction: Bills ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.5.

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The San Francisco 49ers (12-5) withstood a bunch of injuries to key players this season, including QB Brock Purdy missing 8 games. The Niners had an opportunity at the top seed in the NFC before falling at home to the Seahawks last Saturday, 13-3. San Francisco fell to the 6th seed, getting set to face the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles (11-6). There were plenty of ups and downs for the Eagles, including 3 winning streaks of 3 games and a losing skid of 3 games, but they managed to grab the NFC East title for a 2nd straight season.

Philadelphia and San Francisco each finished with 10-7 ATS marks, while the Niners won 7 of 9 games away from Levi’s Stadium. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad beat the Seahawks and Rams on the road in the first 5 weeks, but the other 5 away victories came against teams with losing records. The 49ers posted a 2-4 ATS ledger in the underdog role, which included an overtime triumph over the Rams as a 6.5-point dog in Week 5. The Eagles compiled a 4-4 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field, including outright defeats to the Broncos and Bears. Philadelphia ranked 24th in yards per game (311.2), the 3rd-fewest for any playoff team after ranking 8th in this category during its Super Bowl run last season.

These teams last met in December 2023 when the Niners roughed up the Eagles at the Linc 42-19 as 3.5-point road favorites. Purdy threw 4 TD passes, while now-departed WR Deebo Samuel scored 3 times. In their last playoff matchup in the 2022 NFC Championship, the Eagles shredded the 49ers 31-7, but Purdy was hurt early and San Francisco was forced to run the ball basically the entire game. The Niners are 6-3 in the playoffs under Shanahan since 2021 and have not been bounced in their first game. Let’s back the 49ers with the points against the defending champs.

49ers vs Eagles best bet: San Francisco 49ers +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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There wasn’t much faith that the Bills would have their 5-year stranglehold atop the AFC East this season. The Patriots seemed like a long shot after a 4-13 record in QB Drake Maye’s rookie season, but New England brought in former LB Mike Vrabel as head coach. Vrabel helped flip that 4-13 mark to 14-3 and propel Maye to strong MVP consideration with 4,394 passing yards and 31 TD passes. New England overcame a 1-2 start, which included a mind-boggling loss to Las Vegas in the opener, to win 10 consecutive games before melting down in the second half against Buffalo. The strike against New England is 12 of its 14 victories came against non-playoff teams, as the Pats only beat the Panthers and Bills in consecutive games early in the season.

The Chargers travel cross-country to Gillette Stadium as QB Justin Herbert seeks his first playoff victory in 3 tries. After losses to Jacksonville and Houston in the last 3 seasons, Herbert and the Lightning Bolts try to break through after a 2nd straight 11-6 regular season. Los Angeles went through a 7-1 stretch from late October through Christmas before dropping the final 2 games to Houston and Denver. The Week 18 loss to the Broncos meant nothing since Herbert sat and the Chargers had no chance at winning the AFC West. In 4 games as an underdog with Herbert starting, the Chargers posted a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark, including a pair of victories over the Chiefs and a home win over the Eagles.

It’s interesting how the Patriots didn’t lose a road game, but dropped 3 games in Foxboro. New England finished 8-3 ATS as a favorite, as 2 of the non-covers came in close victories over Cincinnati and Atlanta. The argument against New England and its schedule is valid, but the Pats also defeated the Buccaneers and Ravens as underdogs, both of whom had a shot to win their divisions in Week 18. Herbert hasn’t won a playoff game, and they are going into a tough environment in the cold on Sunday night against a Patriots’ team that is hosting their its postseason game since 2019.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: New England Patriots -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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We kick off the early slate of college basketball with the DePaul Blue Demons vs the UConn Huskies. UConn is clearly the class of the Big East, although they did need overtime to survive at Providence earlier this week. DePaul is riding a modest 2-game winning streak, beating Georgetown and Xavier. DePaul is better than they have been in the past, but a trip to Storrs is just not likely to be successful. I’ll take the Huskies to cover -19.5.

These two teams faced off in December with UConn winning on the road, 72-54. I do not expect Depaul to do much better in this game. While DePaul is certainly better than they have been in recent years, this is still a team that struggles mightily on the offensive end of the floor. They play slowly, and they sit outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency. They consistently struggle to get above 60 points, and that would seem like the absolutely ceiling against a team like UConn with a top-5 defensive team. I just don’t see the path for the Blue Demons, particularly on offense, and I expect UConn to roll. It’s a big number, but it is the wiser play.

DePaul vs UConn Prediction: UConn -19.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Kansas is ranked, but the number next to the name is doing more heavy lifting than the résumé. The Jayhawks already have four losses and have spent much of the season surviving rather than separating — two overtime escapes, including a one-point thriller at NC State, plus most recently a narrow four-point win over TCU. And when KU has stepped up in class against true national powers like North Carolina, Duke, and UConn, they didn’t simply lose — they got handled. That raises the question: is Kansas actually a Top 25 team, or are they being graded on brand?

West Virginia is unranked, but they’re not inferior. In fact, the Mountaineers could easily be sitting in Kansas’ exact position with slightly different late-game outcomes. WVU lost in overtime to Ohio State by one and suffered a brutal last-possession loss to Clemson in a game they largely controlled. Flip those results and West Virginia’s record shines and they are likely ranked. Flip Kansas’ OT wins into OT losses and the Jayhawks are unranked and a dog here. Now add in the scheduling spot: undefeated #3 Iowa State comes to Lawrence next. That’s a marquee game that can pull focus, even subconsciously. Meanwhile WVU has already won the last two meetings and will not be out-motivated by a “revenge” narrative. This sets up as a live dog with real value in a game they can win outright.

Kansas vs West Virginia prediction: West Virginia +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4

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After their loss to Texas Tech, Duke may have gone 3-0, but it hasn’t been pretty. Duke narrowly escaped with an 85-79 victory over Georgia Tech, pulling away in the final minutes, sneaked by Florida State 91-87 thanks to solid free-throw shooting in the final seconds, and overcame a nine-point deficit after the first half against Louisville and walked away with an 84-73 victory. On Saturday, they’ll be set to face a SMU team that isn’t easy to defend. If the Blue Devils want to stay undefeated in conference play, they’ll need to step up their defensive presence in this one. 

SMU is averaging 90.1 points per game, slightly higher than Duke’s 87.1. The Mustangs have strong guard play with Boopie Miller, who averages 20.6 points per game, Jaron Pierre Jr.(17.9), and B.J. Edwards (13.5). SMU had a slow start in their last matchup against a tough Clemson defense, shooting just 37.3% from the floor, well below its season average of 49.8%. Duke’s defense hasn’t been strong in conference play, and I don’t think they’ll be able to slow down this SMU offense enough to win by double digits. Look for the Mustangs to create issues for Duke on defense, keeping this game much closer than Duke would like. 

SMU vs Duke prediction: SMU +12 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After getting an unexpected extra 2 days of rest following the postponement of their game against Chicago, the Miami Heat are back on the road in Indiana on Saturday night. The Heat are banged up just like any other NBA team at this point, so having those extra 48 hours to recoup some of their energy levels could prove to be valuable ahead of this game. The last time we saw them they didn’t do well in the loss to Minnesota, scoring just 94 points in a blowout loss. Scoring should be a lot easier vs the Pacers who are the league’s 6th worst defense in terms of efficiency. Indy also ranks just 29th in offensive rating.

Rick Carlisle has finally entered club 1000 after his Pacers ended a 13-game losing streak with a win over the Charlotte Hornets. The former Mavs boss waited since December 8th to get his 1000th win as a coach, to say that is has been a struggle this season would be an understatement. Beating the Heat will be a challenge in itself. The Pacers have dropped 7 games in a row at home, plus they are only 3-7 ATS in 10 home games against this team. The first meeting played just under 2 weeks ago saw them concede 142 points in a 26 point blowout loss.

On occasions this Pacers team can pull off upsets, but I do not believe that will be the case on Saturday vs Miami. The Heat are hungry to get back on track after a pair of losses to Minnesota. Winning games like this one is a priority if they want to remain in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference. I’ll go with the more rested Miami team here.

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Predictions: Heat -7.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This matchup lines up cleanly when you focus on where and how these teams win games. The Clippers have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA, sitting at 4–14 away from Los Angeles. That weakness showed again recently when they were soundly beaten at Madison Square Garden, struggling to score efficiently or sustain defensive pressure in a double-digit loss to the Knicks. That’s notable because Detroit has played at a level this season where it’s fair to argue they’re at least comparable to, if not better than, New York. The worst part is they are playing at home.

Detroit in the Motor City has been outstanding. The Pistons are 14–3 at home, consistently defending with physicality, and winning the possession battle. Their success isn’t driven by hot shooting variance; it’s built on rebounding, rim pressure, and disciplined half-court defense — traits that translate night to night. That makes them a tough out for any visiting team, especially one that already struggles away from its own building. This isn’t a speculative play. The numbers, venue, and recent results all align. Detroit at home against a road-struggling Clippers team is exactly the type of spot to back the Pistons in a game they can in blowout fashion. Lay the price and don’t look back.

Clippers vs Pistons prediction: Pistons -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

You’ve probably heard the cliché “it’s hard to beat the same team twice.” Now apply it to a back-to-back rematch, and that challenge gets even tougher. Minnesota just beat Cleveland by nine two days ago in Minneapolis, and that’s what the market will remember. But this is not the same setup. That’s why Cleveland is favored here with all things considered.

For one, the venue flips to Cleveland, and that matters since the T-Wolves have a strong home court presence. Second, the first game wasn’t as it appears – it swung on one defining stretch. These teams were essentially deadlocked at halftime before Minnesota detonated in the third quarter with 43 points, while Cleveland managed only 22. That quarter created the separation. Outside of that frame, the Cavaliers more than held their own. In fact, they nearly came back, cutting a 19-point deficit late in the third down to four points with a minute left. That rally is significant because it shows Cleveland can solve Minnesota’s looks and win stretches of basketball against them.

The key here is immediacy: Cleveland doesn’t have to “learn lessons over a week.” They get the rematch immediately, at home, with clear adjustments. Take away one disastrous quarter and the Cavs win — possibly comfortably. Because of recency bias, Cleveland is easy to fade. That’s why the value sits on them even here as the chalk.

Timberwolves vs Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

The Calgary Flames are set to take on the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on Saturday afternoon. After experiencing some brief offensive success last month, the Flames have reverted back to their woeful offensive ways. Calgary has scored just 6 total goals over its last 4 games, and ranks 31st in the league scoring just 2.55 goals per game on the season. That number drops to 2.13 when playing on the road. The Penguins aren’t the strongest defensive team out there, but given Calgary’s immense struggles to score goals on a consistent basis, it’s tough to expect the Flames to light up the scoreboard in this one.

The Penguins have been rolling offensively lately, and enter this game having scored 4+ goals in each game during their 6-game win streak. They are certainly hot, but they’ve also experienced their fair share of ups-and-downs this season. The Penguin power play has been rolling as well, but the Flames haven’t allowed a power play goal in 6 straight games. It’s also worth noting that these teams haven’t met since November 30, 2024, so don’t be surprised if the 1st period or so is spent getting a feel for each other’s game plan. Consider the under.

Flames vs Penguins prediction: Under 6 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Dallas Stars and San Jose Sharks clash for a Western Conference battle on Saturday afternoon. Dallas has beaten SAN Jose twice this season, and has outscored them 9-4. Can they complete the sweep? Here is our Stars vs. Sharks prediction.

Dallas has finally halted a six-game losing streak (0-3-3) after an impressive 4-1 win over the Washington Capitals, but they lost a lot of ground and have many more wins needed. After building a substantial cushion over many NHL teams, they are now tied with the Minnesota Wild for second in the division, and hold a minimal lead of four or less points against three other NHL teams. This game against San Jose presents a good opportunity for Dallas to earn two points, and I see them doing so. As fun as the young energy from the Sharks has been to watch, they are hosting a very strong and team in the league that should be hungry. Dallas has beaten San Jose twice in regulation this season for a reason, and I believe their strengths and maturity will generate yet another one, even with how well San Jose is playing lately (5-1-0 in their last six games). For our Stars vs. Sharks prediction, take Dallas on the money line.

Stars vs. Sharks prediction: Dallas Stars money line (-185) available at time of publishing. Playable to (-190).

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The Detroit Red Wings will take on the Montreal Canadiens Friday night. These teams currently rank 2^nd and 3^rd in the Eastern Conference, which means we should be in for a good game. Both teams also come into this game winning 7 of their last 10 overall. With both teams playing so well, we need to take a look at the previous time they played. In their previous meeting, The Canadiens won 5-1 even though they were outshot 31-17. This could be a huge revenge spot for the Red Wings.

In the net for the Red Wings will be John Gibson. Gibson has looked great recently and has maintained a save percentage above 91% through his last 4 starts. These numbers could make it hard for a Canadiens team that ranks toward the bottom of the NHL with only 25.8 shots on goal per game. For the Canadiens, they are projected to start Jakub Dobes. Dobes struggled in his last start giving up 5 goals to the Carolina Hurricanes with an 80% save percentage. While there may be a clear edge in goalie, the Red wings also have a slight edge when it comes to goals against, shots for, power play scoring, and penalty kill on the season. While these are slight advantages, all together they can play a huge role in what should be a tight game. Overall, I am going to trust Gibson and the Red Wings to keep the Canadiens goals to a minimum and get the win.

Red Wings vs. Canadiens Prediction: Red Wings ML (+120) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.