Parlays

The championship of the Maui Invitational features the USC Trojans vs the Arizona State Sun Devils. That is probably not the matchup we were expecting when the tournament began, but both teams have had strong showings in paradise. USC had two narrow victories, first over Boise State and then over Seton Hall. Arizona State first upended Texas by 1, then won a 100-94 shootout with Washington State. This is a big moment for both teams, as USC is trying to emerge as a tournament contender, while Arizona State is trying to find success in Bobby Hurley’s 10^th year (and with his back likely against the wall). At this point, I think USC is the better team though, and I am backing them to take this championship. Give me USC -4.5.

Arizona State, like many major conference programs, rebuilt the roster in the offseason. They took aim at some big name transfers, but missed on all of them. Instead, they grabbed up several small conference guys. Prior to Maui, they played closer with Gonzaga than pretty much anyone else, which gives some hope to this team, but ultimately, I am not sure they have enough firepower to compete, especially in a loaded Big 12. USC reloaded with some big transfers, including Chad Baker-Mazara (Auburn) and Rodney Rice (Maryland), a couple of guards who can really generate offense. In the early going, KenPom has USC in the top 40 of offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and tempo, and this might just be a sneaky good team to pay attention to. Give me the Trojans to take the ‘ship in Hawaii.

USC vs Arizona State Prediction: USC -4.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Coming off their first loss of the season, No.3 Houston will look to bounce back against Notre Dame in a consolation game of the Players Era Tournament. Houston shot the ball well against Tennessee, hitting 45.9% of their shots from the field, but their defense, typically their biggest strength, wasn’t as dominant as they expected. According to KenPom, Houston ranks 2nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and they should have no issues clamping down on this Notre Dame team, who is averaging just 78.1 points per game. 

In this tournament, the Fighting Irish dropped their matchup against Kansas by 10 and barely survived Rutgers with a 68-63 win. Notre Dame doesn’t have a lot of offensive firepower, with Markus Burton leading the way at 20.3 points and 2.3 rebounds per game.  As for the Cougars, they aren’t known for their offensive firepower, but their defense. Playing their third game in a row, fatigue may be starting to sit in for some of these players. Houston is by far the more talented team on paper, and Notre Dame hasn’t played great offensively in this tournament. The one thing Houston needs to try to limit in this matchup is the number of fouls. They allowed Tennessee to shoot 29 free throws, something they can’t afford to do against any team. Look for the Cougars to tighten things up on defense and rebound from their loss against Tennessee, making Houston my best bet of the day. 

Notre Dame vs Houston prediction: Houston -11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Seton Hall suffered their first loss of the season last night, falling to USC 83-81. The Pirates shot 56.1% from the floor and had the chance to walk away with a win, but instead of playing for the championship, they’ll now face Washington State in the Maui Invitational with a third-place finish on the line. Washington State barely snuck by Chaminade to open the tournament, and they came up short in their last matchup, losing to ASU 100-94. 

The Cougars have been strong offensively, averaging 83.1 points per game while shooting 48.8% from the floor. Leading this Cougars team in offense is Ace Glass, who is averaging 18 points and 2.4 rebounds per game. Defensively, the Cougars have struggled, allowing opponents to shoot 51.2% from the field and average 82.7 points per game. For the Pirates, they don’t have as much firepower offensively, averaging 75.9 points per game and shooting 45.1%. However, their defense is what’s been carrying them this season, holding opponents to just 61.4 points per game and shooting 38.3%. This will be Washington State’s toughest test yet, and while the Cougars have plenty of talent on offense, Seton Hall’s defensive pressure and ability to control the pace should give them the edge. I expect the Pirates to shut down the Cougars offensively, much like they did to North Carolina State, and win by double digits to secure a third-place finish in the Maui Invitational. 

Seton Hall vs Washington State prediction: Seton Hall -9.5  (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Indiana Pacers hit the road looking for their first taste of success on the road this season. The Pacers have lost all nine games on the road this season, including 120-109 in Cleveland as a 14-point underdog. The Pacers have covered three in a row, including two straight as a double-digit underdog. Indiana is not only 0-9 this season, and 3-6 against the spread (ATS) on the road. The defense for Indiana has been non-existent, and it is a major reason for the team’s immediate fall from Eastern Conference champs to the bottom of the standings. Indiana has allowed at least 117 points in seven in a row.

The Raptors pounded the Pacers 129-111 on Nov. 15 as a 6-point favorite as the Over (235.5) cashed in the first meeting. Toronto has won five of the past eight meetings, while going 6-2 ATS in that span, too. Toronto heads into this one almost as complete opposites of Indiana, winning eight in a row, and 12 of the past 13 gams. It is 3-1 ATS in the past four games, while going 10-3 ATS across the past 13 games since Oct. 31. The Raps have scored at least 119 points in three of the past four games, and seven of the previous nine outings. Look for the red-hot Raptors to keep the Pacers down.

Raptors -10.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -12.

There is good news on the horizon for the Milwaukee Bucks as their superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo edges back to a comeback. His status has been updated to questionable ahead of Wednesday’s game in Miami, but likely won’t suit up. As desperate as the Bucks have been, even that counts for something. They’ve lost 5 games in a row, during this stretch only the Dallas Mavericks had a worse offensive rating, while defensively they ranked 23rd in the league. Not much is expected against Miami here, even though the Bucks enter this game having gone 6-1 ATS/SU in 7 meetings.

For Miami it’s been a whole different story – they’ve won 5 in a row, Wednesday’s game is a massive opportunity to catch the Bucks in the NBA Cup standings with a win. I was impressed with the way Miami handled Philadelphia over the weekend, they followed that up with a win over the Mavericks on Monday. This team is 8-1 SU at home, with a total of 8 players averaging double-digits in points it’s really hard to know who will have the hot hand if you’re the opposition. Norman Powell is proving to be an integral part of the team, his 25.4 points per game are a career high. From a bettors perspective the Heat have been reliable at 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, they’re also 8-2 ATS in 10 games vs East teams.

Milwaukee’s Net Rating of -14.5 points is the worst in the NBA over the past 5 games, until Giannis is back they really have not much to hope for. I’ll take the reliable Miami Heat here.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Predictions: Heat -7.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It is arguable the game of the night in San Francisco between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets. Unfortunately for us, injuries have derailed both teams a little, but that shouldn’t take away from the overall experience. Houston did beat Phoenix without Kevin Durant in their last game 114-92, however he could be joined by Steven Adams who finds himself on the injury report with an ankle issue. He has been a real difference maker for Houston, adding to their rebounding capabilities and making them one of the tallest line-ups in NBA history.

Meanwhile, the Warriors have Draymond Green, Al Horford, Jonathan Kuminga and De’Anthony Melton on the injury report. Green and Horford could play, but let’s be real it all starts and ends with Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry here.  After one of the most brutal stretches to start a season, the Warriors welcomed the Jazz with open hands in their last game and won by 17. With games against the Thunder and Cavaliers coming up later in the week, the schedule doesn’t get any easier. The oddsmakers still have a lot of faith in Golden State, making them slight favorites here. They’ve covered in 6 of 7 home games, while against the Rockets they’re 9-2 SU in 11 games at home.

Adjustments will need to be made by the Rockets without two very important players here. Despite the better record I’m hesitant to back them against the Warriors here, Curry and co. need a win against a solid team to get back some of their confidence. Give me Golden State to cover.

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Predictions: Warriors -1.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Nashville Predators and Detroit Red Wings meet for a Wednesday night matchup in the NHL. This is the first of 2 meetings this season between the intra-conference teams, and both have looked much different so far. Detroit has been pushing for first in the Eastern Conference for most of the season, while Nashville has been gunning to avoid last place in the NHL. Will this play out as it should? Here is our Predators vs Red Wings prediction.

Detroit has played 1 more game than the 3 Eastern Conference teams above them (Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils and Tampa Bay Lightning), but make no mistake — the Wings are well within the run. They have only grabbed 1 overtime win in the last three games, and as a team that has underperformed in the past few years, this strong start cannot go to waste. Every point matters, and taking down a far weaker Predators team is a must. Nashville has lost 3 straight games and has been outscored 15-3, and I don’t think things will get better on the road against a hungry team. Both sides are healthy, but Detroit boasts the better roster that is filled with skill. Don’t overthink this one. For this Predators vs Red Wings pick, I’m taking Detroit on the money line.

Predators vs Red Wings prediction: Detroit ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable to -190.

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The battle between the Minnesota Wild and Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday night features 2 teams that are heading in different directions of late. The Wild are riding a 5-game winning streak and are 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, while the Blackhawks have lost 3 in a row and are 5-4-1 in their last 10. Since the return of Mats Zuccarello, the Wild have only lost 1 game. Although not a superstar in the league, he is very important for this team. He has developed an impressive chemistry with Kirill Kaprizov, and since his return he has 8 points. He is also very solid defensively. This team overall is very good defensively, and it is coming off back-to-back shutouts. If the Wild can shut down Connor Bedard, the Blackhawks do not have too many other lethal scoring threats to be afraid of.

The Blackhawks are the fourth-most penalized team in the league, and this will not be good going up against the Wild — who have a lethal powerplay. Their powerplay is fifth-best in the NHL, clicking at 25.6%. I think the veteran lineup of the Wild will be able to take care of the Blackhawks. Give me Minnesota on the money line.

Wild vs Blackhawks prediction: Minnesota ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The Utah Mammoth have enjoyed life on home ice so far this season. Utah is a strong 7-2-1 at the Delta Center this season, as compared to going 5-6-2 on the road. The Mammoth are coming off a convincing 5-1 win over the Golden Knights in which Logan Cooley produced 4 goals and 5 points. Utah has now won back-to-back games on the heels of a 4-game losing streak, but 3 of those losses came in overtime. André Tourigny’s squad is in a good place right now, and the same cannot be said for Martin St. Louis’ Montreal Canadiens.

The Canadiens are in a bit of a free fall. The poor play of Sam Montembeault and Jakub Dobes in November has resulted in the Canadiens wining just 3 times over 10 games so far this month. Montreal is allowing 4.3 goals per game in that span, and Utah boasts a well-rounded forward group that is more than capable of taking advantage. The Mammoth are averaging a strong 3.40 goals per game at home this season and rank sixth by allowing just 2.40 goals per game. Utah has a stingy defensive group that doesn’t allow many scoring chances, and it seems unlikely that Montreal will be able to keep up. Playing on home ice, look for the Mammoth to find the win column in this one.

Canadiens vs Mammoth prediction: Utah ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Thanksgiving Day features a trio of excellent NFL games, and one of the most consequential matchups of the weekend comes in the NFC North, where the Detroit Lions are set to host the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of a Week 1 contest in which Green Bay dominated the proceedings. Both of these teams have been up-and-down all season long, with the Lions struggling to generate consistent success against strong defenses without the services of Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, while the Packers are also searching for more consistency on a week-to-week basis on offense. Even in last week’s convincing win over Minnesota, Jordan Love and company were still held to less than 300 total yards of offense and largely benefitted from being plus-three in turnovers. However, what Green Bay does have is a very strong defense, which has the ability to generate pressure on Jared Goff and force the veteran quarterback into mistakes, much like we saw in the Week 1 meeting between these teams. As long as the Packers can somewhat limit the effectiveness of Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground, they should do a solid job of getting this Detroit offense off the field.

As for the hosts, the Lions have typically been an excellent team at home in the Dam Campbell era, but it has been tough sledding for Detroit in its recent home games. In fact, the Lions have been struggling against inferior competition, with Detroit losing outright as a significant favorite to the Vikings and needing overtime to get past the lowly Giants last week. This is not the same offense that we are used to seeing out of the Lions, and Johnson’s absence has clearly been felt in the first season with a new play-caller at the controls. On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defense has allowed a combined 54 points in its last 2 home games against the likes of J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston. That doesn’t bode well for the Lions in this NFC North showdown.

Packers vs Lions prediction: Packers ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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The Thanksgiving Day schedule in Week 13 of the NFL season features a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. It is an absolutely massive matchup, as both teams are teetering on the edge of wild-card contention in their respective conferences. I would not back the Cowboys without the hook, but I think they can keep this contest within a field goal. As such, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is for the home team to cover. Dallas kept itself alive in the NFC playoff picture with a monumental 24-21 victory over Philadelphia from 21-0 down this past Sunday at AT&T Stadium. The defense has looked much improved (granted, that’s not saying a lot) following the trade-deadline acquisitions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson, while QB Dak Prescott and WR George Pickens are simply on fire these days. Pickens has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past 2 games.

Kansas City kept its AFC wild-card hopes afloat with a 23-20 home win over Indianapolis in Week 12. It was an impressive result, but the Chiefs were behind 20-9 in the fourth quarter and just 1 or 2 plays by Daniel Jones here and there could have iced it in the Colts’ favor. These still aren’t the Chiefs of old. They are 6-5 overall and had lost 2 straight prior to their defeat of Indy. They are 1-4 away from home this season (1-3 in true road games). Patrick Mahomes delivering more late heroics to steal a win would not come as much of a surprise, but I don’t see the visitors covering -3.5.

Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction: Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Ravens eked out another win, their 5th straight, and with it reclaimed the top spot in the AFC North. A month-plus of nonstop victories is impressive, but they’re still leaving plenty to be desired. For example, their 5 straight wins came without a single game in which Lamar Jackson threw over 200 yards. Their rushing has been far more consistent and remains one of the best operations in the NFL (fifth in yards per carry, averaging 4.9), which is what we’ve been used to from John Harbaugh’s regime.

Defensively, we’re more impressed. Besides the Bears, who rank 9th in total offensive EPA, the Ravens’ defense has benefitted from an easy slate of opponents over the last 5 weeks. They’re still doing their jobs, and during the current winning streak, they’ve kept enemy offenses to just 307.6 yards per game — a far cry from the 380.3 yards per game they allowed in 6 previous battles. Still, we have yet to see the Ravens’ defense against an above-average offense. That won’t be the case on Thursday.

On the Bengals’ side, it’s all about Joe Burrow. Cincinnati is obviously one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranked dead-last in total defensive EPA. Against the run, they rank 29th, which is even more concerning against the Ravens (156 opponent rush yards per game, 31st). But there’s a reality in which the Bengals can hang around if their star quarterback returns, a guy who instantly changes the mood of the entire franchise. At 3-8 and with very low chances of making a playoff run, we questioned whether Zac Taylor and the Bengals’ brass would let that happen. Despite our doubts, as of Monday reports from Cincinnati say the All-Pro will play, and he’ll be joined by fellow All-Pro Ja’Marr Chase, who’s coming off a suspension.

At first glance this seemed like an auto-bet on Baltimore but now we think it’s anything but. What opened as a -10.5-point spread is now down to -6.5 and for good reason. Other than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Burrow is as valuable as any single player. We like the Bengals’ extra juice from #9’s return to give us a close contest.

Bengals vs Ravens prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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