Parlays

An unexpected Game 7 will take place Sunday afternoon between the top-seeded Detroit Pistons and the #8 seed Orlando Magic. The Magic jumped out to a commanding 3-1 series lead, but now the Pistons are trying to become the 14th team in NBA history to comeback and win after a 3-1 deficit. Orlando looked like they had the series won on their home floor in Game 6 when they held a 22-point halftime lead, but Detroit stormed back with their defense in the second half — only allowing the Magic to score 19 second-half points on 4-of-27 shooting from the floor.

The Magic will need to regroup before going head-to-head against a Pistons’ team that has found new life. The Pistons head into Game 7 as solid -8.5 favorites, and the general consensus seems to be that the Magic missed their chance in Game 6 and that they are doomed in Detroit after the Pistons seemingly found their defensive mojo. However, if we look back to earlier in the series, we have seen the Pistons flex their defensive muscles before, just to be followed by a good response from Orlando’s offense in the following game. In Game 2, the Magic only scored 83 points on 35% shooting, which they were able to follow with 113 points on 45% shooting from three in Game 3.

The Magic have struggled with consistency this season, which is a reason they fell all the way to the #8 seed, but they have shown me enough this series. They can compete with the Pistons when they are at their best. While the Magic have punched up in these playoffs, the playoffs have seemingly exposed the Pistons offense. Cade Cunningham has shown to be the only proven and consistent scorer for Detroit. When Cunningham is off the floor, Tobias Harris, Duncan Robinson, and Jalen Duren have all struggled to produce offensively. Duren has been the biggest let down among the 3, only averaging 9.8 points per game this series.

Sure, the Magic would have preferred to win this series on their home floor, but this is Game 7 — where no extra motivation is needed. Expect this contest to be physical and low-scoring between 2 teams that I believe are evenly matched. I’ll take the Magic and the points in what I expect to be a closely-contested game.

Magic vs Pistons Game 7 prediction: Orlando Magic +8.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

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The Raptors survived Game 6 in the most dramatic of ways, as RJ Barrett drained a game-winning three on a lucky bounce in OT — setting up a winner-take-all Game 7 in Cleveland on Sunday. Brandon Ingram decided to skip this one after suffering a heel injury early in Game 6, prompting the trio of Barrett, Barnes and Walter to all score 20+ in the win. We knew from the beginning of this series that home court would play a massive role in the outcome; all 6 wins so far have been by home teams. Going into Sunday’s deciding game, history is not on the side of the Raptors, as road teams have won just 40 of 155 Game 7s in NBA history. However, it is worth pointing out that since 2017, we’ve seen a more balanced outcome in these games with each side winning on 7 occasions in 14 games played.

The Cavs have nobody but themselves to blame for that loss on Friday. They fell in love with the three-ball early and could just never get their offense going properly, finishing the game shooting just 11-for-41 from downtown (27%). Despite dominating the battle on the glass 52-38, they were unable to get in front by more than 6 points. Their lack of fast break points was also noticeable; Toronto had the upper hand in that area, outscoring the Cavs 20-6. Having the home fans cheering them on will be a massive factor for the Cavaliers in Game 7, as they are a fairly stable 30-14 SU in 44 home games so far this regular season and playoffs. They’ve also beaten the Raptors 7 times in 9 meetings at Rocket Arena, and entering Sunday, the Cavs are riding a 7-game win streak in home games.

These teams have been neck and neck throughout this series, with the last 3 games being decided by just 4, 5 and 2 points. I do not anticipate either team to let off in Game 7, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another tight ending coming our way. With James Harden being just 3-4 SU in Game 7s in his career (with 3 losses in a row), I am not 100% sure I trust him to get the job done here. If Cleveland wins, it’ll be by a slim margin, so it makes a lot more sense to back Toronto plus the spread here.

Raptors vs Cavaliers Game 7 prediction: Toronto Raptors +8 is available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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The first bet I made on Sunday’s MLB slate was Phillies ML against the Marlins. Philadelphia enters Sunday just 13-20 on the season, but they have won 5 of their last 7 games and are looking for a series win against a divisional opponent. Meanwhile, Miami just took a series from the Dodgers and would love another series win today to get back to .500. 

I think Philadelphia holds a clear starting pitching edge on Sunday. Jesus Luzardo enters play with a 5.50 ERA through his first 6 outings, spanning a combined 34.1 innings. Luzardo has been extremely unlucky this season, as his underlying metrics suggest he has been borderline dominant. His 3.26 xERA and 2.77 FIP are the product of a 28.3% strikeout rate and exceptional batted ball metrics. That said, Luzardo is currently allowing a .352 BABIP and stranding just 56.4% of base runners. Those are numbers that will surely regress to the mean in his favor.

Chris Paddack is scheduled for his 7th appearance of the season for Miami in this matchup. Paddack is someone I have bet against consistently for the last 2 seasons, and it has paid off given his poor results. Through 28 innings as a Marlin, Paddack has posted a 6.10 ERA. His 3.77 xERA and 4.47 FIP are better than that mark, but his low strikeout rate and high hard-hit rate are a worrisome combination. Paddack has pitched 4.2 innings or fewer in 5 of 6 appearances, and I don’t expect a strong start from him today.

Phillies vs Marlins prediction: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-142) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

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The Chicago Cubs will be hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon, looking for a sweep of the 3-game series. The Cubs have been red-hot lately, coming into this game riding a 4-game winning streak and having won 7 of their last 10 games. The recent good play has vaulted them to first place in the NL Central Division, and they can improve that position with a win against a struggling pitcher in Merrill Kelly on Sunday.

Kelly has a 9.21 ERA in just 14.2 innings pitched this season. In his last 2 outings, he has given up a combined 13 earned runs, including 4 home runs. The Cubs are the 2nd-highest scoring team in the MLB, averaging 5.4 runs per game. It is going to be difficult for the Diamondbacks to keep pace with them, especially considering a portion of the Cubs lineup has good history against Kelly. The Cubs are 13-5 at Wrigley Field this season; look for them to keep the good play at home going. Give me the Cubs in this one.

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs prediction: Chicago Cubs ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable to -170.

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It hasn’t been pretty for the New York Mets. A $346M roster, endless scrutiny, and the worst record in baseball make them a tough sell on the run line, let alone as a favorite. Add in the fact that the first two games of this series have both been decided by one run, and backing New York at margin feels uncomfortable. But the number is telling you something, and it starts with Clay Holmes.

Holmes has been a stabilizing force amid chaos, coming in 3-2 with a 1.75 ERA, a near 60% ground ball rate, and a .97 WHIP. Those are elite run-prevention metrics. He’s exactly the type of arm that can neutralize a power-heavy lineup like the Los Angeles Angels by keeping the ball on the ground and limiting damage. More importantly, he’s capable of working deep and protecting a lead. The Angels counter with Jack Kochanowicz, who enters 2-0 with a 3.09 ERA and a strong 60% ground ball rate of his own. On paper, that’s solid. But dig deeper, his 1.20 WHIP and near 1:1 K/BB ratio point to more traffic and more danger in escaping jams cleanly That’s where New York can swoop in. Despite their struggles, they still work counts and draw walks, and with bats like Juan Soto and Bo Bichette, they can punish mistakes. Holmes controls the game. Kochanowicz allows opportunity. That’s the difference, and why the Mets can win with margin. I am backing the struggling Mets big to get this done with style.

Mets vs Angels prediction: New York -1.5 (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.