Parlays

The Celtics offense has plummeted in their last 3 of 4 games, culminating with back-to-back losses to San Antonio and Indiana in games in which they’ve scored under 100 points both times. In the game against Indy they connected on just 9 threes, the lowest amount made over the past 10 games. Most of those numbers should see a bump up against a somewhat defensively limited Miami Heat team. Boston did win the first meeting 129-116 about a month ago at home.

The Heat have also seen a drop-off in production on the offensive end, recording 2 games of under 100 point scored in the past 7 days or so. But if we are to judge them by their 2 most recent performances, that slump is behind them. On Wednesday they beat the Phoenix Suns 127-121 shooting over 50% for the 2nd game in a row. They do have a couple of minor injuries to a few rotational players, but more importantly Bam Adebayo and Norman Powell are both healthy and playing at a high level right now.

This match-up has been a struggle for Miami. The Celtics have won 8 straight at the Kaseya Center, they’re also 7-1 ATS/SU in 8 meetings overall. Boston really thrives in games against opponents who play at a fast pace, so I’m expecting their offense to wake up a little here. Go with Brown and co. to cover in this game.

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Predictions: Celtics -2.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This spread tells you everything you need to know. Under normal circumstances, the Knicks simply aren’t the type of team you expect to see catching a meaningful number against anyone, especially this deep into the season given how consistently elite they’ve been on both ends. When a market is willing to hang New York as this much of an underdog, it’s almost never about “public perception”—it’s about uncertainty, and in this case the uncertainty starts and ends with Jalen Brunson’s status.

Brunson is the Knicks’ offensive engine and driving force. If he’s not at 100%, New York’s entire profile changes. Their pace naturally slows, their defense takes a hit, and their ability to respond to runs takes an even bigger blow. That’s exactly the kind of vulnerability that shows up on the road against a team like Golden State, who can flip a game in three minutes with a burst of threes and transition buckets. Add in the fact the Knicks just got clipped by Sacramento—an outcome that signals they may not be in peak form right now—and the warning signs are showing. This isn’t a spot to get cute and grab the easy number with New York. The price is advising to do otherwise. Golden State has a clear path not just to win, but to win by margin.

Knicks vs Warriors prediction: Warriors -7.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

The Charlotte Hornets make the third stop on a five-game road trip through the Western Conference, playing at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles against the Lakers on Thursday. The Hornets have had mixed results, and that’s putting it lightly. Charlotte routed the Utah Jazz 150-95 on Saturday, handing the Jazz their largest margin of victory since relocating from New Orleans in 1979. It was unable to carry over the momentum, falling 117-109 against the Los Angeles Clippers, who have now won 22 of the past 23 meetings since the Hornets moved back to Charlotte from New Orleans. The Hornets are 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past three games after a 5-0 ATS run.

The Lakers were fighting mad after an embarrassing 124-112 loss at Sacramento on Monday, bouncing back for a 141-116 win over the visiting Atlanta Hawks as a 1.5-point favorite. That cover also snapped an 0-3 ATS skid. The Over has cashed in two in a row for the Lake Show, too. At home, Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in the past 10 games at home, so proceed with caution in this game. However, Los Angeles has won five of the past six meetings, while going 6-3-1 ATS in the past 10 in the series since April 13, 2021. Back the Lakers, and feel good doing so.

Lakers -4 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

The Seattle Kraken and Boston Bruins meet for the second time in 10 days, finishing their season series. After Seattle defended its home ice on January 6, Boston will look to do the same. Here is a Kraken vs Bruins prediction to get you set for the action.

Seattle is playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation, which also happens to be its fourth straight road game. I think this could be a significant factor for a West Coast team. The Kraken are also facing one of the hottest teams in the NHL, as the Bruins have won 4 straight games and have outscored teams by an astonishing 18-3 margin during this stretch. I expect Boston to play with fire after Seattle scored 7 goals on it in a 7-4 win just 9 days ago. That is a result that will be easily remembered. In front of their own home crowd, the B’s will be hungry to return the favor. I expect a good enough game from them in which they should secure things in regulation. For this Kraken vs Bruins prediction, I’m taking Boston on the regulation money line.

Kraken vs Bruins prediction: Boston 3-way ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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The Winnipeg Jets will be visiting the division rival Minnesota Wild on Thursday night. The Jets have turned things around following an 11-game losing streak. They are coming into this game riding a 3-game winning streak. The issue with the Jets is the lack of scoring depth that exists in their forward group. Their top 3 scoring forwards are Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabe Vilardi, who have 54, 54 and 41 points, respectively. The next closest forward to Vilardi has 17. This is going to be a significant disadvantage going up against a Wild team that boasts a very deep forward corps.

The addition of Quinn Hughes to this lineup has vaulted them into Stanley Cup contender conversations. In the 15 games he has played as a member of the Wild, he has 16 points. Their powerplay unit is loaded with talent and is one of the best in the NHL, operating at a 22.7% success rate. They are also one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Wild average 2.70 goals against per game, which is third-best in the league. The Wild are the more well-rounded team in this matchup; they should get it done on home ice. Give me Minnesota.

Jets vs Wild prediction: Minnesota ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs makes the third stop on a four-game road trip against the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena. Toronto has picked up at least one point in 10 consecutive games, going 8-0-2, heading into Utah last time out. The Leafs, playing on no rest, were smoked 6-1 by the Utah Mammoth, giving us pause heading into Vegas. The Leafs looked to be back, now we’re not so sure again. The Leafs are likely to be fired up facing former wing Mitch Marner, who went to the Golden Knights in the offseason in a sign-and-trade deal.

The Golden Knights have won five in a row, and they’ve won four of the previous six meetings with the Maple Leafs since Oct. 24, 2022. Vegas posted a 3-2 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday night, and now they face the quick turnaround with no rest. VGK gets a shot in the arm, as Adin Hill is expected to come off the Injured Reserve list after being sidelined for the past three months due to a lower-body injury. VGK is 5-0-1 in the past six games, too, and they’ve won the past two games on home ice by an 11-4 margin. Back Vegas until it cools offs.

Golden Knights ML (-130) at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

Towson’s home court presence is doing too much heavy lifting here. When a team like the Cougars are undefeated in league play, taking the plus-money is the smart move. Towson on the flipside is 1-4 in CAA play, so we must ask why are they favored here?

Your guess is as good as ours. The price is effectively telling you “home court is worth flipping the teams.” But who did Towson beat in the SECU Arena? Two Division II teams, Norfolk State, Sacred Heart, and Cornell. None of these teams are the Who’s Who of mid-major basketball. Teams certainly that are nothing like that College of Charleston in terms of overall quality. The Cougars have also owned this series in recent memory and that is a key emotional intangible that they have in their back pocket. Then there is the match-up itself on the court. The Cougars offense has multiple creators, they play team offense, and don’t need one specific matchup to win —they can survive a grind. That’s another big ingredient since this game is priced as such. In a game that can go either way, grabbing the better price with a quality side that has owned the match-up is the right play in this scenario.

College of Charleston vs Towson prediction: College of Charleston +125 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

This is a game where the market sees Florida Atlantic at 7-1 in Boca Raton and immediately rushes to back the Owls. However, that’s overstated. The true focal point of this contest is Wichita State’s 55th-ranked scoring defense which allows less than 70 points per game going up against FAU’s 35th ranked scoring offense that generates 83.5 points per contest. This is basically a dissertation on what wins when offense meets defense? Banking on the defense is the safer bet.

On the otherside, Wichita State has a legitimate ball facilitator who can swing outcomes in Guard Kenyon Giles. This is key because if the Shockers bring the Owls out into deep water, they will need a playmaker to get over the line. You may here that the Owls had a season-defining win with a defensive stand against Memphis, but the Tigers aren’t exactly the prominent program they once were. Wichita State meanwhile has the profile of a team that enjoys physical play, taking the game into the mud, and making smart shots to put themselves in position to win. The best part is we aren’t asking for the Shockers to win, just to stay in range. The Shockers absolutely can win here, so the points in this occasion have tremendous upside.

Wichita State vs Florida Atlantic prediction: Wichita State +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs, ranked inside the Top 10, make the short jaunt down from Spokane to battle the Washington State Cougars at Beasley Coliseum. Gonzaga has won 10 in a row, although it is just 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in the past four games, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight outings. The Zags have won seven in a row in this series since the Cougs posted their last win in the series on Dec. 8, 2010. However, Washington State is an impressive 7-1-1 ATS in the past 9 in the series, so proceed with caution with Gonzaga.

Washington State has been a little erratic on offense this season, and the Cougars are two games under .500 overall on the season. While, yes, Wazzu has covered the past two games, and yes, it is 2-0 ATS in two games as a double-digit underdog this season, the Cougars are going to be overmatched quickly. Ace Glass has the toolset to hang with the Bulldogs, but look for Graham Ike, in particular, to have his way in the paint. Gonzaga might struggle a bit in the first half before it is able to pull away in the second half for a victory of at least 20 points.

Gonzaga -18.5 (-105) at time of publishing. Playable to -19.

Many pontificators in the betting world thought the Jaguars would successfully move on to the Divisional Round, anchored by Liam Coen and their new-look defense. That never came to be. Instead, Buffalo secured their first road playoff win since 1992, led by more heroic efforts from Josh Allen. The esteemed Bills quarterback seemed to injure his knee and throwing hand on the same drive early in the game, but that didn’t stop him from accruing 306 total yards and 3 total touchdowns. When it mattered, Trevor Lawrence threw 2 key interceptions, one on the final drive, to seal the Buffalo victory. 

As usual, the Allen-led offense was more than effective, answering the call whenever needed. On the other hand, the Bills’ defense played good, not great, only a few times making stops when it mattered. Not ideal was that Jacksonville went 5-9 on 3rd downs and 3-4 in the red zone. In truth, if it wasn’t for Lawrence’s 2 interceptions, the final result might’ve been different. As usual, the onus of Buffalo’s future will remain with Allen and his ability, since we suspect their defense will continue to allow plenty of production from opponents. The Bills will face a much greater challenge this coming Saturday, up in elevation in Denver against a Broncos squad that knows how to win and will be coming off extended rest.

Denver is statistically the opposite of Buffalo. They can rely on their defense, a group that’s top-5 in nearly every metric (including a 1st-place ranking in opponent yards per game, 278.2), but their offense seems to only come alive when they need it. Bo Nix and his colleagues mostly present average to below average marks, particularly in yards per pass, where they generate just 6.4 (29th). This is true even though they own one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, permitting a sack on just 3.62% of plays (2nd overall). The good news for Denver is that they are good under pressure, averaging 7.7 points in the 4th quarter and successfully completing 5 4th-quarter comebacks this season. Of course, Josh Allen and the Bills are also pretty good in this category, too, averaging 9.2 4th-quarter points and earning a few 4th-quarter comebacks themselves.

We’re pretty certain this game will come down to the final drive. Since one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks will be facing one of the NFL’s best defenses, that makes this matchup all the more difficult to predict. At face value, the more rested team at home is generally the side to go with, especially considering their prowess on defense. Personally, we’d love to see Buffalo win, but the intangibles favor Denver.

Bills vs Broncos prediction: Broncos +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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If you watched last week‘s game between the 49ers and the Eagles, it wasn’t completely surprising to see the result. Since Brock Purdy has returned as the 49ers’ starting quarterback, they’re offense has been humming, right up there with the best passing operations in the NFL. Despite throwing two interceptions, Purdy was ice cold when it mattered most, going 6-11 on third downs and engineering 13 fourth-quarter points against one of the NFL’s best defenses. Perhaps most impressive about San Francisco’s production was that they only possessed the ball for 24 minutes. 

The Niners defense played well, but some of that is more on Philadelphia’s lackluster offense. The Eagles’ offensive operation has been pedestrian for most of the season, so it wasn’t surprising to see them stumbling through the second half, earning just 6 points and 104 yards in the final two quarters. Credit should be given to Robert Saleh and his roster, but we’re also not sure if it’s sustainable. That’s particularly true this weekend.

The Seahawks enter the divisional round off extended rest and they will host their first playoff game Saturday night. The dominance of their defense has been well documented, completely obliterating San Francisco in their last matchup in Week 18 (they held Brock Purdy and company to just 3 points and 173 yards). Offensively they left plenty on the field, garnering just 13 points themselves. Most impressively, they ran for 180 yards on 4.6 yards per carry, and completely controlled time of possession because of it (37:48 to 22:12). Their passing attack wasn’t that explosive, but Sam Darnold was efficient (20-26, 198 yards) and the game never felt within reach for the visiting Niners. 

While the rematch might not look the exact same, we are expecting a similar result. San Francisco’s impressive victory last Sunday came at the cost of George Kittle, their all-pro tight end who’s as crucial in blocking as he is in the pass catcher. He tore his achilles and will be out for the remainder of the season, yet another big loss to a roster that’s been severely beaten up this year. Add to the fact that San Francisco will only have six days to prepare for battle after a very physical matchup in the wildcard round and it’s hard not to imagine a Seattle blowout.

49ers vs Seahawks prediction: Seahawks -7.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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Houston heads to the northeast for a second straight week after knocking out Pittsburgh in Monday’s Wild Card round, 30-6. The Texans cashed as 2.5-point favorites after opening things up in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Steelers, 23-0 to break away from a 7-6 advantage. Now, the Texans are flipped to a short underdog against the AFC East champion Patriots, who also pulled away late from the Chargers in a 16-3 triumph. New England led Los Angeles, 6-3 at the half until QB Drake Maye hooked up with former Charger Hunter Henry for the game’s lone TD in the fourth quarter to send L.A. to 0-3 in the playoffs with Justin Herbert at QB.

We’ll see if New England’s offense can score on Houston’s defense, which led the NFL in yards allowed per game (277.2) and gave up 183.5 passing yards per contest. The Patriots posted a solid 12-5 ATS mark in the regular season, followed up by the cover as 3.5-point favorites over the Chargers. Houston picked up its 10th straight win against Pittsburgh since losing to eventual AFC top-seed Denver at home in Week 9. The Texans have won and covered in the past four opportunities in the underdog role, including victories over the Chargers, Bills, and Chiefs.

Houston routed New England last season, 41-21 at Gillette Stadium, as Maye threw for 243 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. Texans QB C.J. Stroud looks to overcome his five fumbles against the Steelers, as he posted at least 240 passing yards in three of four road games since returning from his concussion in November. The Patriots have won 11 consecutive games as a favorite since getting stunned in the season opener by the Raiders. Houston’s defense has been exceptional this season and as long as Stroud can hold onto the ball, the Texans are a strong look here as an underdog.

Texans vs Patriots prediction: Texans +3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Four of six road teams won during NFL Wild Card weekend, starting with the Rams’ 34-31 victory at Carolina. Although Los Angeles failed to cover as 10.5-point road favorites, the Rams avenged a 31-28 defeat to the Panthers from late November. Los Angeles squandered an early 14-0 lead, but QB Matthew Stafford hit TE Colby Parkinson for the go-ahead score in the final minute, marking the fourth lead change in the fourth quarter. The Rams travel to frigid Chicago on Sunday night, where temperatures are expected to be below 20 degrees during the day and around 6 degrees at night.

Chicago rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit to stun Green Bay, 31-27 for the franchise’s first playoff win since 2010. The Bears scored 25 points in the fourth quarter, highlighted by a pair of TD passes from QB Caleb Williams in his playoff debut. The former top pick finished with 361 passing yards and 2 TDs, marking his first 300+ yard passing performance of the season. Chicago somehow came back in spite of not creating a takeaway after leading the league at +22 in turnovers in the regular season. The Bears have won seven of their last eight games at Soldier Field since falling apart in the season-opening defeat to the Vikings.

For the 2nd straight week, the Bears are listed as a home underdog and the Rams are a road favorite. LA posted a 5-2 ATS mark as a road favorite, including the blowout of Jacksonville in London. The two non-covers came as a favorite of more than a TD in losses to Atlanta and Carolina, but all five covers came by at least 10 points. The Bears have put together an 8-2 ATS record in the role of a dog, including a 2-0 ATS mark at home. The Rams aren’t used to the cold, but let’s back the road favorite here to advance to the NFC Championship.

Rams vs Bears prediction: Rams -3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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