Parlays

One of the marquee games in college basketball this weekend comes in the Big 12, where a showdown between a couple of future top-5 NBA Draft picks will take place at Phog Allen Fieldhouse between the BYU Cougars and Kansas Jayhawks. All eyes will be on this game from basketball fans across the country, especially from those who are hoping to get a look at Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa in a matchup that pits these superstar freshmen against each other. Both of these teams are certainly capable of making a deep postseason run, and there are compelling reasons to look at each side heading into this one. However, given the hype and expectations surrounding Saturday’s contest, there is no way I’m going to fade Kansas at the Phog, especially since the Jayhawks are laying a relatively short number at home compared to projections.

First off, it’s important to consider that Peterson will likely not be 100% healthy heading into this game, as the freshman phenom has been recovering from a sprained ankle he suffered against Colorado back on January 20. The latest injury is just one in a series of ailments for Peterson this season, as hamstring and calf issues have limited him to just 10 games played to this point. Despite all of that, when Peterson does play, he clearly looks like the best player in the nation and a guard that is capable of leading Kansas to the Final Four. Bill Self’s team has also consistently improved over the course of the season, as the supporting cast has proven itself to be very capable with, or without Peterson. Melvin Council Jr. has done a nice job of running an offense that is on the rise, while Flory Bidunga and Tre White anchor a defense that is 11th in defensive efficiency and ranks 3rd in 2-point defense allowed over the past month (Barttorvik).

Conversely, BYU has been pretty up-and-down over the past 3 weeks. In fact, the Cougars are just 44th at Barttorvik since January 8 and we’ve seen some real cracks in the armor for BYU, particularly on defense. That doesn’t bode well in an extremely hostile environment against a Kansas offense that has been trending up (13th in adjusted efficiency since January 13), especially at home. The Cougars defense doesn’t force turnovers and they have been very poor at defending the 3-point arc (280th in 3-point percentage defense) in January. With BYU’s recent struggles in mind, along with factoring in the improved play of the Jayhawks and their prowess at home, it’s hard to ignore the signs with Kansas in this one. I’ll lay the points and take my chances with the hosts.

BYU vs Kansas prediction: Kansas -3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas -4.5

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After an embarrassing 83-52 road loss at Duke, the Louisville Cardinals will return home to the KFC Yum! Center to take on the SMU Mustangs on Saturday afternoon. Despite Mikel Brown’s return to the lineup, the Cardinals were abysmal on the offensive end at Cameron Indoor, scoring just 0.80 points per possession while connecting on only 25% of two-point attempts, 32% of three-point attempts and 69% of free throws. They were also crushed on the glass 47-28 and gave up 1.28 points per possession to the Blue Devils.

Despite being the home team, it’s not going to get any easier for Louisville on Saturday. This SMU team is feisty, coming into this game having won 3 of its last 4, while sporting a top-20 adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom. They have 3 conference losses – Clemson, Duke, Virginia – but all of them are admirable, and none of them were by more than double digits. Working in the Mustangs’ favor is the fact that they have not played since Saturday, so they will benefit from a couple extra days of preparation and rest ahead of this big ACC showdown – which is ideal when you consider this is somewhat of a revenge angle for them after Louisville embarrassed the Mustangs on their home floor last year. In the era of the transfer portal, these teams hardly look like they did last year, but SMU’s 3 best players in Boopie Miller, BJ Edwards and Samet Yigitoglu will remember that game.

This figures to be a high-scoring game with plenty of pace, but instead of taking the over, I’m going to take the points with SMU. In addition to the extra prep time, SMU has shown more consistency than Louisville, and the Mustangs have played much better in faster-paced games than they have in games against more methodical offenses. Moreover, Louisville has been one of the worst power-conference teams in the country when stepping up against quality opponents – highlighted by Evan Miya’s Opponent Adjust metric. I see Wednesday’s game against Notre Dame as Louisville’s get-right game, but this game figures to be more of a battle.

SMU vs Louisville prediction: SMU Mustangs +9.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +9.

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It’s a Mountain West battle as San Diego State looks to hold onto first place in the conference, while Utah State sits right behind them in second, aiming to pull even at the top. The Aztecs are coming off a dominant 23-point win over Colorado State, shooting 54% from the floor while holding the Rams to just 33.3%. Utah State is rolling as well, fresh off a 32-point blowout against Wyoming in which the Aggies shot 55% and held Wyoming to 35% shooting. 

Both teams bring a strong defensive presence into this matchup. The Aggies are led by guard MJ Collins Jr., who is averaging 19 points per game, along with efficient rebounding and scoring from Mason Falslev, who chips in 16.3 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. Drake Allen adds another dimension with his elite playmaking ability and willingness to facilitate when needed.  The Aztecs also have a balanced offense with three players averaging double digits: Dixon-Waters (11.5 PPG, Miles Byrd (11.0 PPG, and BJ Davis (10.9 PPG). These teams are evenly matched on both ends of the floor, setting up a game that should stay competitive for the full 40 minutes. The Aztecs have also shown they’re comfortable away from home, posting a 4-1 road record this season. This line seems a little too big for the Aggies to cover, even on their home court, and the Aztecs have plenty of offensive talent and a strong defense to keep this game close. Look for San Diego State to cover the spread, making them my best bet of the day. 

San Diego State vs Utah State prediction: San Diego State +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Florida Panthers are looking to avoid a 3-game losing streak when they host the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday afternoon. While the Panthers are heavy favorites, the Jets have the potential to pull a mild upset in this matchup. The Jets enter this matchup with 49 points in 53 games, while the Panthers have 59 points through 53 games. Despite the 10-point differential between these teams that has them in very different spots in the standings, the goal differentials are essentially the same. Winnipeg’s goal differential sits at minus-10 with the Panthers are at minus-11.

Winnipeg goaltender isn’t have the Vezina-caliber season we are used to seeing, but he is still posting solid numbers. The veteran netminder owns a .902 save percentage to go along with a 2.71 goals-against average in 34 games this season. Hellebuyck figures to get the starting nod in this one, and he has already performed well against Florida this season. He stopped 19-of-20 shots in a 1-0 shootout loss to the Panthers last week on January 22. His offense failed to back him up in that contest, but the Panthers have allowed 9 goals over their last 2 games, so Hellebuyck could be in line for more goal support this time around. With odds of +140, consider a small wager backing the Jets.

Jets vs Panthers prediction: Jets ML (+140) available at time of publishing. Playable to +130.

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The San Jose Sharks and Calgary Flames are set to meet for the 3rd time this season on Saturday afternoon in Calgary. The Flames took the first meeting by a score of 2-0 on November 13, and the Sharks claimed a 6-3 win in the 2nd meeting on December 16. This matchup could be similar to the 2nd meeting in terms of total goals. The Sharks have scored 11 total goals over their last 3 contests, and have received a big boost with the return of Will Smith earlier this month. Smith has tallied 8 points on 3 goals and 5 assists in his 6 games since returning to the lineup, which has led to the Sharks potting 3 or more goals in 4 of those 6 games. Smith is a great compliment to Macklin Celebrini, who is 4th in the NHL with 79 points on the season.

The Flames haven’t found much offensive success this season, but they seem to have a favorable matchup against the Sharks. San Jose is allowing 3.44 goals per game, which ranks 29th in the league. They’re also allowing 30.5 shots on goal per game, which ranks 30th in the league. If the Flames were ever going to break through offensively, this is the matchup to do so. Make it a small play, but look to the over in this one.

Sharks vs Flames prediction: Over 6.5 (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Edmonton Oilers enter this Saturday night matchup against the Minnesota Wild riding a 3-game winning streak. Looking to extend their streak to 4, Connor McDavid and company should feel good about their chances to find the win column in this one. The Edmonton offense is firing on all cylinders right now, having scored 17 total goals during their 3-game win streak. The power play continues to operate at a high level, entering this contest with an NHL-best 31.6% conversion rate. That spells bad news for the Wild, who have struggled killing penalties all season. More specifically, Minnesota ranks 25th in the league with a penalty kill operating at a 77.6% clip.

Goaltender Tristan Jarry is 6-2-1 in 9 games with the Oilers, and he has been the beneficiary of plenty of goal support. While his .883 save percentage and 3.23 goals-against average with Edmonton don’t jump off the page, the argument can be made that he has been better than those numbers suggest. Jarry has allowed multiple late goals when the game is already decided that have inflated his numbers with the Oilers a bit. The Wild pose a challenge for the veteran netminder, but with the way the Edmonton offense is rolling right now, it’s tough to go against them – especially on home ice. Back the Oilers on the money line.

Wild vs Oilers prediction: Oilers ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Charlotte Hornets are riding a 5-game winning streak ahead of their game against the San Antonio Spurs. However, 3 of those wins came against teams outside the play-in positions as of now and 1 was against a 76ers team without Joel Embiid. With the Spurs star big man in Victor Wembanyama available tonight, along with the rest of the roster apart from Jeremy Sochan, todays game could turn into a reality check for the hosts. The visitors have a strong road record this season too and are 6th in point differential in those contests too. Over the last 10 games they Spurs are 5th in defensive rating and should have a great chance of slowing down this in form Hornets team.

Over the last 10 games the Hornets are 5th in the league in points in the paint, but up against Wembanyama those will be much harder to come by. Knowing he is back there allows the Spurs to close down more aggressively on the perimeter so it’s no surprise that during that stretch they are 8th in opponent 3-pointers made. It should help them limit the contribution the hosts get from Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller. Look for the Spurs to cover the spread on the back of a strong defensive showing.

San Antonio Spurs vs Charlotte Hornets prediction: Spurs -4 available at time of publishing. Playable to Spurs -3.5.

The New Orleans Pelicans will be on a back-to-back tonight as they take on the Philadelphia 76ers. They have struggled in such games this season with a points differential of -11.3 in games they have played with no nights rest. Their road form has not been great either, with just 5 wins on the season. The hosts will be confident they can dominate tonight, especially with Joel Embiid available. He has scored 30 or more points in 5 of the last 6 games. Against a team 25th in opponent points in the paint and an undersized center in Derik Queen, Embiid should dominate and lead the hosts.

The 76ers have been efficient shooting the ball, ranking in the top 10 of true shooting per percentage over the last 10 games. They are also in the top 10 in fast break points per game and against a fatigue opponent, it should help their offense flourish. During that same run of games the Pelicans are down in 26th in 3-point shooting percentage, so against a team that has been as efficient as the hosts, they could find themselves falling behind early. The visitors also do not have a natural point guard in their starting lineup, which should limit their offensive potential overall. Take the 76ers to cover the spread.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction: 76ers -10 available at time of publishing. Playable to 76ers -11.

The Mavs lost a nailbiter against the Charlotte Hornets last time out, falling for the 3rd consecutive game. Rookie sensation Cooper Flagg did his best to keep his team afloat by scoring 49 points and grabbing 10 rebounds, but even that wasn’t enough for the injury riddled Mavericks. Saturday sees them take on a familiar foe in the Houston Rockets. These two teams have played each other 3 times already this season, with two of those games being decided by single digits. Dallas did come out on top in one of them back in early December, that’ll fill them with optimism ahead of Saturday’s game at Toyota Center.

Defense is what has kept the Rockets in the top 4 of the Western Conference for most of the season so far. We saw the full extent of it in their last game as they held the Atlanta Hawks to just 86 points in a blowout win on the road. Returning home will be a confidence boost for KD and co., as they are one of the most consistent home teams in the NBA with only 4 losses in 20 games so far. However, from a betting standpoint they’ve caused a lot of headaches covering the spread just 4 times in 15 games. The loss of Steven Adams is huge, he was their 2nd leading rebounder behind Sengun, so I’m curious to see how they adapt to life without him.

This Dallas defense hasn’t been confidence inspiring at all lately, but they’ve been able to stay in games despite that. I do not anticipate a high scoring game here, the last time these two met we saw only 212 points between them and the game was decided by just 8 points. After seeing Flagg drop 49 points on the Hornets, I think he’ll follow it up with another solid game vs Houston and keep the Mavs somewhat in the game. I’m backing Dallas to cover for the 6th time in 8 games.

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets Predictions: Mavericks +11 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.