Parlays

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish head to Chapel Hill to face the North Carolina Tar Heels. This matchup features two teams that both very much need to win, and the intensity should be high. The Heels suffered a pair of losses on their California road trip last week, losing to both Stanford and Cal. The Irish have lost 4 of their first 5 conference games, and 4 of their last 5 overall as well. This is a tough road spot for the Irish, and Carolina will be looking to bounce back from a frustrating road trip. I think the best play here is Carolina to cover -11.5.

The biggest issue for the Irish is that they lost their best player a few weeks ago. Markus Burton is a pure scorer, the kind of guy that can put up 20+ points every night. This Notre Dame team has not been right at all in his absence. Carolina was missing their star guard for a long while too, but he is back now, and the Tar Heels are a talented and dangerous team. Notre Dame does not force turnovers, and their outside shooting game has been inconsistent. On the other side, we know the Heels are going to score, and their balanced attack should be too much for the Irish. I think North Carolina wins this one going away.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina Prediction: North Carolina -11.5 (-110). Playable to -13.5.

Georgetown and Villanova as a rivalry is second to none. However, the market is putting too much weight on the mechanics of animosity more than the teams on the floor. The Wildcats are significantly better than the Hoyas and that is why they are favored as they are here.

The Hoyas are in free-fall. Georgetown has lost five straight. The market will point out that three of these losses were close defeats against UConn, at Creighton, and at DePaul but that’s all fodder. The Hoyas struggle to close games and they invent new ways to lose. This is a team that cannot sustain defensive or offensive pressure for two full halves. Nova meanwhile is 7-2 SU in their last nine outings. Over this span, the Cats have knocked off Wisconsin, Butler, and Seton Hall all on the road. These are three teams that are bubble teams for March and Villanova handled them in their own barns. Add in that the Wildcats are 8-2 in their own stead and this is a contest that very quickly could get away from Georgetown. The Hoyas may have won the last two between these rivals but that all changes tonight. Lay the points and don’t look back.

Georgetown vs Villanova prediction: Villanova -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.

The Cincinnati Bearcats started Big 12 play 0-3 SU, but they have rattled off 2 wins in a row after their 79-70 home victory over the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday. The Bearcats forced the Cyclones into 12 turnovers, won the rebounding battle, and held the ‘Clones to just 13-of-30 from two-point range. On Wednesday, the Bearcats will hit the road for a cross-country trip to play the #1 team in the country in the Arizona Wildcats, who are a perfect 18-0. Last time out, the ‘Cats struggled from three-point range and the free throw line, yet they were still able to beat UCF 84-77 in Orlando – as 5 players scored at least 10 points. 

Cincinnati’s win over Iowa State was impressive, but I don’t expect the Bearcats to find the same fortunes in Tucson on Wednesday night. This Arizona team is elite no matter the venue, but the Wildcats are especially difficult to beat at home. They average almost 97 points per game with a 61.3% effective field goal percentage in the McKale Center, while holding their opponents to just 68 points on 45% eFG%. Cincinnati’s offense is typically lost on the road, averaging less than 67 points on an ugly 45.3% eFG, which is worrisome considering this will be their longest road trip of the season to this point. Moreover, the Bearcats are 13th out of 16 Big 12 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency, and while their defense grades out as the 2nd-most efficient in the conference per KenPom’s numbers, they have the 13th effective field goal percentage allowed when playing against conference opponents. I don’t see Cincinnati scoring enough to cover on Wednesday.

Cincinnati vs Arizona prediction: Arizona Wildcats -14 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -15. 

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For the 3rd time this season the Nets and Knicks clash in the all-New York affair, with the road team hoping to avoid a 3rd consecutive defeat. Brooklyn got outplayed in both meetings by double-digits in November, but with the Knicks struggling right now, is there a chance they pull one back? MPJ and co. haven’t been the best of road teams in terms of outright wins, winning just 6 of 19 games, but their ATS record stands at a much better 9-10 in those 19 games played. What should give this team hope ahead of Wednesday’s game at MSG is their three-point shooting. They’ve connected on 15 threes in 4 consecutive outings.

What was once a promising start to a season has now become a nightmare for most Knicks fans. Their team has really struggled ever since winning the Emirates NBA Cup. Over the past 15 games the Knicks are just 5-10 SU, in line with the Kings, Jazz and Wizards which is far below expectations. This recent poor run of play has sparked speculation that Karl Anthony-Towns could be traded, New York better start turning things around if they intend on keeping this core group together. The good news ahead of Wednesday’s game is that the health situation has improved a lot, with not a single player on the injury report.

With four consecutive defeats and back-to-back games with under 100 points scored, I have my doubts about the Knicks here. As bad as Brooklyn has been all year long, their defense has been able to contain opponents for stretches this year. The Knicks probably win it, but I’ll take the Nets and the big spread.

Nets vs Knicks prediction: Nets +11 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Pistons have been locked on defensively of late. In 6 straight games they have held their opponents to 105 or fewer points. It is no surprise to see that over the last 10 games they have been by far the most dominant team in terms of defensive rating. Now they will be welcoming a New Orleans Pelicans team that over that stretch of games have been in the bottom 10 of the league in offensive rating. They do however have Herbert Jones listed as questionable to play and if he returns tonight, it should be a major boost to their defensive capabilities.

The Pelicans offense relies heavily on their paint scoring, but could find that harder to come by tonight. Over the last 10 games the Pistons are 3rd in opponent points in the paint. With Jalen Duren defending inside, Zion Williamson and Derik Queen will be challenged at the rim. During that stretch of games, both sides have been inefficient too, ranking 17th and 20th in true shooting percentage. At that the same time the Pistons are 5th in rebounding percentage and should be well positioned to limit the hosts to one possession throughout the night. If the Pelicans cannot figure out how to break down the visitors here, they will struggle to do their part for the over.

Detroit Pistons vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction: Under 234 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 232.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 6 of their last 7 games heading into a road date with the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night. Oklahoma City endured a bit of a swoon from mid-December through early January, but it is back on track and playing like the defending NBA champion. The Thunder have been getting the job done with defense. They have held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 104 points or fewer, including 2 under the century mark during this stretch. Now OKC faces one of the lowest-scoring teams in the association. As such, my Thunder vs Bucks pick is Under 226.5.

Milwaukee is averaging just 112.4 points per game — third fewest in the Eastern Conference and tied for fifth fewest in the entire league. The Bucks have scored 106 points or fewer in 4 of their last 5 outings; they have not posted more than 115 points since January 2. Adding insult to injury, the home team could be without Myles Turner (12.2 ppg) on Wednesday; he is questionable due to an ankle injury. The pace in Wednesday’s contest probably won’t be too quick. Milwaukee ranks #24 in the NBA in pace of play at 102.0 possessions per game. As a massive underdog against the best team in the league, the Bucks will be especially content to shorten the game as much as possible. OKC might oblige, as it is nothing notable in terms of pace (right in the middle of the pack at #15). I’m rolling with the under.

Thunder vs Bucks prediction: Under 226.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Philadelphia Flyers were able to snap a 6-game losing skid with a 2-1 victory over the Golden Knights on Monday night. Despite that solid performance, the Flyers could have a difficult time finding the win column in this matchup against the Utah Mammoth in Salt Lake City. The Mammoth have won 6 of their last 7 games, with the lone loss coming in overtime to the Blue Jackets on January 11. Goaltender Karel Vejmelka is in a groove, as he’s won 6 starts in a row and 8 of his last 9. He now leads the NHL in wins with 23, and he’s 13-6-1 to go along with a strong .906 save percentage and 2.46 goals-against average at home this season.

The Flyers have struggled to score goals all season long, as their 2.88 goals per game ranks 23rd in the NHL. The Philadelphia power play has been especially woeful, ranking dead last at 14.7%. The Mammoth are a strong defensive team who don’t give up any easy chances to their opponents. Utah is playing with a ton of confidence right now, and they are a strong 14-7-2 on home ice this season. With the way they are rolling, back the Mammoth on the moneyline in this matchup.

Flyers vs Mammoth prediction: Mammoth ML (-170) available at time of publishing. Playable to -180.

The Pittsburgh Penguins make the second stop on a four-game road trip in Calgary in the first of two outings in the province of Alberta. Pittsburgh opened the trip by doubling up the Seattle Kraken 6-3 as moderate favorites as the Over (5.5) cashed behind Stuart Skinner. Pittsburgh has picked up at least one point in four straight outings, going 2-0-2 in the span. The last time these teams met, though, less than two weeks ago, the Flames picked up a 2-1 win behind Devin Cooley at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. Connor Zary opened the scoring, and Matt Coronato scored the game-winning goal early in the third period.

Calgary suffered a 2-1 loss in overtime on home ice on Monday. The Flames are still a respectable 3-1-1 in the past five games, and Calgary is 6-2-1 in the past nine games at home. The Flames won the first meeting this season, and they’re 3-1-0 in the past four in the series, while winning six times in the previous nine in the series dating back to Oct. 28, 2021. The Flames have won four in a row on home ice against the Penguins since Pittsburgh last won at the Saddledome on Dec. 17, 2019.

Flames ML (+100) at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

The Washington Capitals will be in Vancouver on Wednesday night to take on the dreadful Canucks. The Canucks are now riding an 11-game losing streak. That streak has them sitting dead last in the NHL by seven points. The Capitals have not been much better lately; they are only 3-6-1 in their last 10 games. Despite their recent struggles, they are only four points out of a playoff spot. A veteran team like the Capitals will be licking their chops coming into this game, almost viewing it as a must win against a team like the Canucks. One thing remaining consistent for the Capitals has been the play of netminder Logan Thompson. He has a 2.38 GAA and .914 SVP on the season.

The Canucks have 16 wins on the season and only four of those have come on home ice. They are ranked 29^th in the NHL averaging only 2.55 goals for per game, and they are dead last in the league when it comes to defense, averaging 3.65 goals against per game. This should be a guaranteed two points for the Capitals. I will be taking them on the money line.

Capitals vs. Canucks prediction: Capitals ML (-155) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.