Parlays

The Washington Capitals will take on the Philadelphia Flyers Tuesday night. The Capitals come into this one winning their last 3 games. Through those 3 games, they have scored 12 goals while giving up 7 goals. Thanks to this form, the Capitals are now only 2 points behind the New York Islanders for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. This should give them some motivation in this game. On the season, they are averaging 3.18 goals per game while giving up 2.95 goals per game. This goal average makes sense when you consider that the Capitals rank 5th in the NHL in shots on goal. The Capitals offense makes or breaks games.

For the Flyers, they have lost 4 straight games. Even worse, they have lost 6 straight games at home. This slump for the Flyers has been due to rough play on both offense and defense. In the last 4 games, they have scored 8 goals while giving up 18 goals. This inability to score has been a struggle for the Flyers all year and they currently rank 28th in the NHL in shots on goal. These issues for the Flyers should be the deciding factor in this game. Additionally, the Capitals have won the last 5 head-to-head meetings between these teams. I am taking the Capitals on the money line.

Capitals vs. Flyers Prediction: Capitals ML (+110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In what should be an entertaining matchup to watch unfold, the Buffalo Sabres are set to battle the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday night. Both the Sabres and the Lightning enter this contest playing great hockey, with both sides having won 6 of their last 7 games respectively. The Sabres are playing on the second half of a road back-to-back after they defeated the Panthers by a score of 5-3 on Monday. The Buffalo offense has been clicking, but they could be stymied by a defensively stout Tampa Bay team playing at home. The Bolts are allowing just 2.68 goals per game at home this season, which is the 5th-best mark in the NHL. That success has been seen lately, as they’ve allowed just 2 total goals in their last 3 games at Benchmark International Arena. Andrei Vasilevskiy is also in a groove, as he owns a stellar .926 save percentage since the start of January.

Tampa Bay is coming off a wild 6-5 shootout victory over the Bruins in Sunday’s Stadium Series at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The Lightning were down 5-1 in the 2nd period before mounting the impressive comeback. After such an emotional win in a unique environment, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bolts be a tad sluggish to begin this game. This is the first meeting between these teams this season, so they could take some time to get a feel for each other’s game plan early on. With that in mind, look to the under.

Sabres vs Lightning prediction: Under 6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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The Seattle Kraken are set to meet the Anaheim Ducks for the 4th and final time during the regular season on Tuesday night. The 3 previous meetings between these teams have all stayed under the total, but this matchup could yield a different result. Both of these offenses are rolling right now. The Kraken have won 4 games in a row and have scored 17 total goals in that span. They’ve been especially effective when playing 5-on-5, as just 2 of those 17 goals have come on the power play. The Anaheim power play hasn’t been effective this season, ranking 22nd in the league with a kill percentage of 78.1%. If Seattle is able to keep things rolling 5-on-5 and take advantage of Anaheim’s weak penalty kill, they should be able to find plenty of offensive success in this one.

On the other side, the Ducks have scored 4 or more goals in 5 of their last 7 games. They are still without Leo Carlsson, but Troy Terry is now back in the mix and has made an immediate impact. Terry collected a pair of assists against the Golden Knights on Sunday in his first game back in the lineup, and provides a big boost to Anaheim’s forward group. After scoring just a single goal in each of their first 2 meetings against the Kraken this season, the Ducks broke through for 4 goals in their last meeting on January 23. Seattle can be a stingy defensive team, but Anaheim should still be able to do some damage offensively. Take confidence in the over.

Kraken vs Ducks prediction: Over 6.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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In the midst of a 3-game losing streak, the Ole Miss Rebels will hit the road for the 3rd straight game – this time to Knoxville to play the Volunteers. Their last game was a struggle offensively, as the Rebels scored just 1.06 points per possession on 49% from two-point range and 27% from beyond the arc at Vanderbilt. That came on the heels of an even worse offensive showing at Rupp Arena, where Ole Miss scored just 0.94 points per possession on 32% from two-point range and 33% from three-point range. 

Tennessee is on a much different run than Ole Miss, as the Vols have won 3 in a row over Alabama, Georgia and Auburn. Their most recent outing against the Tigers wasn’t exactly pretty from an offensive perspective, but the Volunteers were strong defensively against a red-hot Auburn squad and controlled the glass in a big way (46-30). At 5-3 SU in conference, the Vols are on the outside looking in when it comes to a first-round bye in the SEC Tournament, but they have also played the most difficult conference schedule to this point (KenPom). With a favorable SEC schedule ahead of them, Tennessee may be poised to make a run for one of those coveted top-4 spots in the league.

I’m a buyer of Tennessee here, and a lot of it has to do with the Vols’ advantage on the glass. This is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, and Ole Miss doesn’t have much front-court size to limit them on the boards. In fact, the Rebels are 249th in potential second-chance points allowed and 190th in second-chance conversion rate (Haslametrics), so the Vols should at least meet their season average of 16.4 second-chance points per game, if not completely blow by it. Twenty percent of Tennessee’s points come off second-chance opportunities, which puts them in the 99th percentile per CBB Analytics. 

I also like the matchup defensively for Tennessee. The Rebels should have some success getting to the rim, but there’s going to need more than that to cover this spread, much less win the game. Ole Miss operates heavily in the mid-range, and the Volunteers have great length to contest or even limit those shots, holding opponents to sub-34% on those attempts. We’ve also seen a healthy amount of Malik Dia post-ups in this offense, but Tennessee is right around the 80th percentile defensively against those sets. Given the travel situation for Ole Miss, in combination with the advantages defensively and on the boards for the Vols, it’s Tennessee or pass for me.

Ole Miss vs Tennessee prediction: Tennessee Volunteers -11.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -13. 

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We head to the Big East on Tuesday, a league that clearly belongs to UConn while everyone else is just happy to be there. The Huskies will host the Xavier Musketeers, a team they beat in Cincinnati by a score of 90-67 in late December. UConn has pushed their winning streak to 17 games now, although notably, they are winning games but are regularly not covering. The Musketeers just snapped a 3-game losing streak by beating DePaul, but this is UConn we are talking about. I don’t see Xavier staying close in this one.

The thing about UConn is that they play a deliberate style of offense that is ruthlessly efficient. They rank outside the top 300 in pace of play, but they are 30th in offensive efficiency. Their defense is even better, and it grinds on teams, especially when they just had to guard for 30 seconds on the other end. It is not a style that leads to a lot of blowouts, but we shouldn’t discount the 23-point win already in this matchup. UConn does not allow threes and the Huskies rebound aggressively. Therefore, if you take away outside shots and second chance points, I am not sure how Xavier stays in this one. The Musketeers like to play fast, but it is hard to speed up the Huskies. This is just a bad matchup for the Xavier, and I am taking UConn to roll at home.

Xavier vs UConn Prediction: UConn -17.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The SMU Mustangs will return home to the Dallas area on Tuesday for a big matchup against the NC State Wolfpack. The Mustangs were in Louisville on Saturday, where they held a commanding 19-7 lead early, but the Cardinals woke up in a big way and ultimately won by 14. It was a poor offensive showing from SMU, especially from deep, as they scored just 0.99 points per possession thanks to an 8/25 result from range. They also turned the ball over 16 times. 

For as inconsistent as NC State was in the non-conference portion of their schedule, the Wolfpack have really turned it on in ACC play – except for that head-scratching home loss to Georgia Tech. At 7-2, the Pack is tied with Virginia at 3rd in the ACC, trailing just Duke and Clemson. Conference road games are typically very difficult to find repeated success in, but NC State has bucked that trend this season with a perfect 5-0 SU road record against ACC opponents. Will that continue on Tuesday? I’m not so sure. 

SMU coach Andy Enfield has a history of struggling against top-50 teams, and while NC State is just that per KenPom’s rankings, the Wolfpack’s best win is over #32 Clemson. That represents half the number of wins NC State has over a top-50 team, accompanied by 5 losses, so we haven’t really seen NC State have much success against their best opponents. For reference, SMU is a top-50 team with 2 wins that are better than NC State’s best. 

The Wolfpack play downhill, attacking the rim and getting out in transition as frequently as possible. Unfortunately for them, SMU denies rim action very well thanks to Samet Yigitoglu and his top-125 block rate. The Mustangs also limit transition opportunities, sitting in the 36th percentile in opposing transition frequency (Hoop-Explorer). This is enough for me to lean to SMU, especially as a home underdog.

NC State vs SMU prediction: SMU Mustangs +2.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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The Brooklyn Nets took yet another heavy defeat in their last outing, suffering a 53-point loss on the road against the Detroit Pistons. And while they will be returning home tonight, their chances of bouncing back against the Los Angeles Lakers look slim. The visitors could see Austin Reaves return to the lineup, with the star listed as questionable to play. Over the last 10 games the Nets already rank dead last in offensive rating. This has been evident in their last 5 games as they have failed to surpass the 105-point mark in any of those games. The return of Reaves could help the visitors compile a major advantage in the scoring category.

The Nets will have a major issue matching up with Luka Doncic and LeBron James. Doncic in particular causes size mismatches at point guard for them, with no natural matchup for him on the Nets roster. Over the last 10 games the hosts are also 29th in defensive rating, making it tough for them to put up much resistance here. The Lakers should even have the advantage inside. Deandre Ayton has shown promising sings of form, having made 22 of his last 24 field goal attempts overall. Against a center like Nic Claxton who gives up a massive bulk advantage to him, Ayton should continue getting in great positions to convert efficiently. It’s hard to see this Nets offense being able to keep pace with the Lakers. Take the visitors to cover the spread.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Brooklyn Nets prediction: Lakers -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Lakers -10.

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The Boston Celtics enter this matchup at 31-18, firmly near the top of the Eastern Conference behind a balanced, efficient attack that averages 116.1 points per game while allowing just 109.1. Jaylen Brown has been the focal point, pouring in roughly 29.4 PPG, with strong secondary contributions from Derrick White and Payton Pritchard helping Boston stretch the floor and control tempo. The Celtics have been reliable away from home and remain one of the league’s more disciplined defensive teams, though recent games have shown occasional lapses late when opponents can match their physicality and shot making. An interesting stat that has haunted the Celtics for multiple years now is their 3rd quarter play. In quarters 1, 2 and 4 the Celtics have the top-rated offense. However, in the 3rd quarter, they rank just 17th. If the Celtics go up big at halftime, you could also look for a Dallas spread live bet.

Dallas comes in at 19-30, a disappointing record that masks some competitive underlying play. The Mavericks score about 114.1 PPG but surrender 116.6, resulting in a negative point differential that reflects inconsistency rather than complete dysfunction. Rookie Cooper Flagg has been a bright spot, averaging approximately 19.8 PPG and providing Dallas with a legitimate scoring anchor. Injuries remain a concern, with Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, and Anthony Davis all sidelined, forcing Dallas to rely heavily on young players and role shooters. Despite those absences, the Mavericks have shown an ability to defend their home floor and keep games close, particularly when pace slows and Boston is forced into half court possessions. Given Dallas’ competitiveness at home and Boston’s tendency to win without separation, there’s value for the Mavericks.

Celtics vs Mavericks Prediction: Mavericks +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5

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The injury to Devin Booker finally caught up to the Phoenix Suns who got blown out in their last game by the Clippers, scoring just 93 points in a 24 point loss. The Suns were able to survive for the most part without their superstar, beating some formidable teams over the past couple of weeks. Tuesday is a bounce back opportunity as they take on another team that’s been hit by the injury bug the Portland Trail Blazers. These two teams met in mid-November with the Suns coming out on top 127-110, it was their 5th win in 7 meetings against this team.

Deni Avdija just got name to the All-Star team as a reserve in the Western Conference, that’s a solid reward for all the good things he’s done for his team this year. However, it’s been almost 2 weeks since we’ve seen a signature game from him, mainly due to the back issues which have caused him to play only 3 games since January 18th. He’s slowly easing into things, the fact that he scored only 11 points at MSG the other day tells us that he is still far from being fully healthy. On top of this issue, the Blazers could also be without Jrue Holiday who is out due to personal reasons, plus Scoot Henderson and Matisse Thybulle who are out injured.

Both teams are missing their best player at the moment, but I’m of the opinion that the Suns are way more comfortable playing without Booker. Before the loss to the Clippers they were able to beat the Pistons and Cavaliers pretty convincingly, with 6 wins in 9 games they should be the ones taking care of business here. I’ll back Dillon Brooks and company to cover.

Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers Predictions: Suns -3.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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