Parlays

This is a classic case of market chasing an appealing number and seeing such as “free money”. There is of course no such thing, but Indiana’s recent run of covers and outright wins has drawn attention. It would lead one to believe the Pacers are a priced incorrectly and inflates the appeal of taking the points here. This is where discipline matters. Charlotte has already proven it can operate in this role. Earlier this week, they dominated Brooklyn by over 30, and more recently they handled Phoenix by 20. This is not a team that plays down to competition, they build leads and extend them. Indiana’s recent surge is real, but it’s also situational. Covering 7 straight and pulling 2 outright upsets puts them squarely in regression territory, especially when stepping into a road environment against a team that can control pace and apply sustained pressure.

These two met in Indianapolis just over a month ago and Charlotte ran Indiana off the floor. That provides a lens into how this can be a true stylistic mismatch. The Hornets’ offensive depth and tempo overwhelm teams that lack defensive resistance like the Pacers do. Large spreads are uncomfortable, but this is not a typical spot. The market is inviting Pacers money based on recent results, but this has all the makings of a “sucker bet” and likely where Indiana’s run ends. I am playing it accordingly.

Pacers vs Hornets prediction: Hornets -15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -16.

The Atlanta Hawks will be hoping to stay red hot when they visit the Brooklyn Nets on Friday night. Atlanta is an unbelievable 17-2 in its last 19 games to take over the current #5 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks have been getting the job done on both ends of the floor, but their newfound commitment to defense has been especially impressive. Given that they are facing an inept offense in this matchup, my Hawks vs Nets pick is Under 225.5. Atlanta limited its last 2 opponents — Boston and Orlando — to 102 and 101 points, respectively. Dyson Daniels, “The Great Barrier Thief,” has made multiple steals in 14 of his last 18 appearances. Daniels and company are now going up against a Brooklyn squad that is committing the second-most turnovers per possession this season.

By pretty much any metric you can think of, the Nets’ offense stinks. They rank dead last in the NBA by a country mile at 106.0 points per game. In all-out tank mode as it positions itself for the NBA Draft lottery, head coach Jordi Fernandez’s squad has failed to reach the century mark in 8 of its last 11 contests. This stretch includes 3 performances with 92 points or fewer over the past 8 games — including 86 in Tuesday’s embarrassing loss to Charlotte. It’s hard to see the Nets getting to 100 on Friday, so Over bettors are basically asking the Hawks to score at least 227. That seems unlikely in a game that will probably be over for all intents and purposes by halftime against an opponent that likes to play slow (Brooklyn ranks #27 in the NBA in pace of play).

Hawks vs Nets prediction: Under 225.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Celtics took out their frustrations on the Miami Heat following that 10-point loss in Atlanta, dismantling the Heat in a 147-129 win. They opened the game with a 53-point first quarter and never looked back. Jaylen Brown scored 43, while Jayson Tatum continued his stellar play with a massive triple-double. This team is showing no signs of slowing down, and although they probably won’t catch the Pistons in the top seed, they still have to maintain this level of play as they continue to integrate Tatum back into the mix. That means they probably won’t relax in Friday’s game against the Bucks either, as they look to cap off the regular season series.

Milwaukee did take a game off the Cs back in mid-December, but since then, they proceeded to score just 79 and 81 points in the next two meetings, losing by 26 and 27 points. The offense could have a hard time scoring yet again, judging by their recent scorelines. The season is pretty much a wrap; Giannis is nowhere to be found and apart from Ousmane Dieng scoring 36 points against Houston, there’s really not much positive to talk about. The three-ball has been going in at a consistent rate in the past 3 games with 17, 20 and 20 scored, maybe that’s something the Bucks can rely on in Friday’s game to get a result? They’ve lost 8 of 9 versus East opponents and have failed to cover in 7 straight vs Atlantic Division teams.

Anything other than a big win for Boston would be considered a surprise here. The Cs have won 5 of 6 meetings, covering 4 times. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 overall and both Tatum and Brown are playing at a high level. I’ll back them to blow out the weak Bucks here.

Celtics vs Bucks prediction: Celtics -16.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Philadelphia Flyers will take on the New York Islanders on Friday night. The Flyers have lost their last 2 games and currently sit at 11th in the Eastern conference. The Flyers will be looking to rebound today, but that may not be easy against an Islanders team that is only allowing 2.84 goals per game. The Flyers also struggle on the offensive end, ranking 29th in total shots with only 25.5 shots per game. Additionally, the Islanders’ goaltenders rank 4th in the NHL and are stopping 89.9% of the shots they face.

Looking at the Islanders, they have also lost their last 2 games, but currently sit at 7th in the Eastern Conference. The Islanders will be motivated to keep their playoff spot with how tight the race is in the Eastern Conference. While the Islanders have dropped their last 2 games, they have scored 3 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 games. The islanders have also won 7 of their last 10 home games. Overall, I do not trust the Flyers’ offense, and the Islanders have been incredible on defense. I am taking the Islanders on the money line.

Flyers vs Islanders prediction: NY Islanders ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable to -175.

The Anaheim Ducks are looking to rebound after suffering a last-minute defeat at the hands of the Sharks on Wednesday night. Anaheim held a 3-2 lead with under 2 minutes to play, but a goal from Macklin Celebrini tied the game before Alexander Wennberg scored the game-winner with 30 seconds to play. As brutal as that defeat is, the Ducks should feel good about their chances to bounce back in this matchup against the St. Louis Blues. Since March 10, the Ducks have played 9 of their last 12 games on the road. They will be happy to return home to the Honda Center for this one, as they are a strong 23-10-3 on home ice compared to 18-19-2 on the road this season.

The Blues are enduring a tough season, but they are still hanging around in the hunt for a wild card in the Western Conference. They seemed to have found a groove with 4 straight wins at the end of March, but they enter this matchup against the Ducks coming off back-to-back losses to the Sharks and Kings. St. Louis has struggled on the road all season long, as they are just 13-19-5 on the road. Furthermore, the Blues lack scoring depth and consistent goaltending, which makes it hard to trust them in this spot. The Ducks rank 4th in the Western Conference with 252 goals on the season, while St. Louis ranks 13th in the conference with 196 goals. Playing on home ice, take confidence backing the Ducks to get the job done.

Blues vs Ducks prediction: Ducks ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

We’ve come to the Final Four, and the first matchup features the Connecticut Huskies vs the Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois came out of the South, benefiting from Iowa dispatching top-seeded Florida. Over in the East, UConn had to do the dirty work — mounting an improbable comeback to oust Duke at the buzzer. UConn has become a team that is hard to bet against, but head coach Dan Hurley and his antics have also made it a tournament villain for many fans. All that aside, I do like Illinois in this matchup — and as long as this spread stays close, I am happy to grab it. Be careful here, though, because this game is likely to stay tight and we don’t want to risk the dreaded win-no-cover if we can avoid it.

Why will Illinois win? Here are several factors. First, the Illini boast the #1 offense in the country in terms of efficiency, and they have only gotten better as the season has gone along. UConn has an elite defense, but offense tends to win out at this stage. Second, UConn is great at keeping teams out of transition — but Illinois doesn’t care about that. The Fighting Illini seem to prefer to play in half-court sets anyway. Third, Illinois is the #3 offensive rebounding team in the nation — and that tends to put defenses in a terrible position. Finally, Illinois is the best team in the country at keeping opponents off the foul line and while Connecticut is one of the worst at getting to the line. That means every point for the Huskies is likely to be a grind.

You might note that these teams played early in the season, and the Huskies won by 13. Don’t make too much of that game because lots of things have changed since then, and teams are doing almost nothing that they were doing 5 months ago. The Illinois offense has taken off since the first meeting, and this game should go very differently. Give me Illinois to cover this game at -2, but let’s not push for a multi-possession victory too aggressively here.

UConn vs Illinois prediction: Illinois Fighting Illini -2 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The NCAA Tournament has produced plenty of memorable moments and even a few genuinely shocking results, such as UConn’s miraculous victory over Duke in the final seconds. However, while it’s not quite the National Championship game, it certainly feels as if all roads have led to this matchup in the Final Four between the Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats. These teams have been the class of college basketball for the vast majority of the season, and both sides have shown their quality en route to fairly dominant runs to this year’s installment of the Final Four in Indianapolis. This game is priced competitively and oddsmakers are certainly expecting a barnburner in a showdown between the top 2 teams on both KenPom and BartTorvik. In what should be the Game of the Year in college basketball, the only question that remains is which of these juggernauts will come out on top and play for a national title.

Given that this is a real clash of the titans, there’s only so much that is really separating the top teams in the sport. Ultimately, I strongly believed that Arizona was the best team in the nation heading into the postseason, and my thoughts haven’t changed heading into this weekend’s matchup. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the plus-money price we’re getting with the Wildcats on Saturday. The biggest potential concern that I’d have with backing Arizona in this one is the math advantage that Michigan could have in this game, as the Wolverines attempt far more threes than their counterparts. If Michigan is knocking down shots from beyond the arc, it’s going to be extremely difficult for any team to hang with an offense of this caliber. However, Michigan is shooting nearly 45% from deep in this tournament and Arizona boasts a strong 3-point defense, so we can expect some regression from the Wolverines on that front. Furthermore, the Wildcats are a supremely elite team in a myriad of areas, and Tommy Lloyd’s team should hold advantages when it comes to turnover margin (where Michigan is a below average unit), rebounding margin and free-throw rate. In a game that is expected to come down to the wire, backing an underdog that does a lot of the little things at a very high level is a pretty attractive option.

Both teams certainly want to get out and run, and we’ve seen each program use their prowess in transition to great success in this tournament. In a game where the rubber will really hit the road and victory will likely be decided by the slimmest of margins, getting stops in transition will matter, and Arizona has already done an excellent job of that in March, specifically against the likes of Arkansas and Utah State. The Wildcats frontcourt is also uniquely suited to slow down a Michigan interior that has been one of the most efficient units in the paint all season long. The twin towers of Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendenborg command so much defensive attention that it often leads to open shooters for the Wolverines on the perimeter. But with Motiejus Krivas, Koa Peat, Tobe Awaka and Ivan Karchenkov forming a very formidable defensive frontcourt presence, the water could get shut off a bit from the outside, as the Arizona guards should stay home on shooters. Speaking of the guards, the Wildcats clearly have the superior backcourt in this game, and there should be opportunities from Brayden Burries to get to his spots and hit shots from the perimeter. And when crunch time arrives, there are very few players I’d rather have on both ends than Jaden Bradley — a proven closer when the lights are brightest. Arizona is the slightly better team for my money, so I’ll gladly take the Wildcats as short underdogs in what should be a game for the ages.

Michigan vs Arizona prediction: Arizona ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.