Parlays

After an odd pair of games against the Philadelphia 76ers and a split, the Toronto Raptors now head to Indianapolis for a date with the suddenly hot Pacers. I say odd because Toronto won the first game without Brandon Ingram in the line-up, then proceeded to lose by double-digits when he returned on the 2nd night of that back-to-back. Once again he is on the injury report ahead of Wednesday’s game, but should be ready to play. More importantly for Toronto is the absence of RJ Barrett here. When he doesn’t play the offensive rating is at 107.9, compared to 120.6 when he play. Their record also reflects his availability, the Raptors are just 8-10 SU without Barrett and 16-7 SU with him.

Don’t look now, but the Indiana Pacers have just connected 3 wins in a row and are currently on their longest win streak of the season. It took them almost 3 months to achieve this feat, can we say they are finally out of the woods in terms of injuries? Well, not quite. Tyrese Haliburton isn’t coming back, plus Mathurin, Jackson and Obi Toppin all remain out of the line-up. A play-in tournament is probably out of reach, but the Pacers are still playing with a lot of pride and this recent run shows us that they haven’t completely given up on this season.

In two meetings this season Toronto recorded two wins, but the last time these two met only 2 points separated them. After that lackluster performance against Philly I am not sure I am able to trust the Raptors here. Indiana has finally found some stability, especially at the point guard position which has helped steady the ship a little. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and back them to cover at home.

Raptors vs Pacers prediction: Pacers +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Let’s start with the number – this is a virtual toss-up. In a 50/50 spot like this one, taking the reduced price on the dog is the move here because it has the most value. That’s Cleveland in this case. But let’s also dive deeper, Cleveland remains one of the worst covering teams in the NBA on the season at 12-29 while the Sixers are one of the best at 23-14-1. This means that by default, the Cavaliers are undervalued here while Philadelphia is prone to being overvalued. Once again that points to the value resting with the visitors.

You will hear that this game will be a playoff-type of tilt with an animated atmosphere. That’s true, but that never prompted the Cavaliers to be shy in these situations. The Cavaliers have lost games on the road against postseason caliber outfits that they should have won. Cough, cough – New York on Christmas Day. The Cavaliers have defeated the Sixers already this season in a 132-121 win that saw the Cavs shoot lights out against Philadelphia. The point is, Cleveland has a recipe for success it can duplicate here, and they should not be the underdog. Because of trends and ATS measurables, Cleveland is the underdog by that reason alone. Wrong side favored.

Cavaliers vs 76ers prediction: Cavaliers ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Dallas is without Anthony Davis, who has been ruled out long term (re-evaluated in about six weeks). That matters because his absence removes Dallas’ most consistent interior advantage and defensive anchor. Denver, meanwhile, is trending up short-term: Jamal Murray just returned and dropped 35 points with nine assists in a win over New Orleans. The absence of The Joker is now old news.

Murray’s return stabilizes their late-game offense, which is the most important ingredient for the Nuggets to win a prognosticated close game like this one. Dallas has to manufacture structure without Davis, while Denver has a primary creator back in rhythm. This flips the entire complexion of the game. Dallas is not a good basketball team and they should not be favored here. The Mavs still sit 10 games under .500 and while they have shown moments of brilliance like they did against Houston on January 3rd or Brooklyn most recently, this is still not a team to trust to hold their end of the bargain. This is another example of the wrong team being priced as the chalk. Win or lose, Denver is the right play here.

Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction: Nuggets ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Philadelphia Flyers and Buffalo Sabres clash on Wednesday night in the NHL. These Eastern Conference teams met twice so far this season, both winning one game. Both teams have posted 52 points in 44 games, and our Flyers vs. Sabres prediction will help figure out who will earn the next points.

Both have showed great promise this season, and I could see either taking the win. The selection for this game heads to the game totals, and I believe we will see a high-scoring result. In five-straight games, Buffalo has seen a game total reach at least six goals. This is a mix of their solid offense and inconsistent defensive efforts. The same goes for the Flyers, who have seen at least six total goals in six of their last seven games. 12 goals against in their last games shows their defense is not necessarily on fire. Neither team is within the tops of league scoring, but they are also both outside the top-ten in goals against average, showing some volatility. These teams are both hungry with a lot to prove with minimal success over the years, so I expect a high effort from both. When all is said and done, I expect offense to be the story of this game. For our Flyers vs. Sabres prediction, take the over 6.0.

Flyers vs Sabres prediction: Over 6.0 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that total to -125.

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Wednesday in the NHL brings us an Eastern Conference battle between the Ottawa Senators and New York Rangers. New York was able to pull out a 4-2 win in December, but with both teams currently struggling, how will this one play out? Here is our expert Senators vs. Rangers prediction to help uncover this.

Ottawa has finally broken a four-game losing streak with a 2-1 win last night over the Vancouver Canucks. They now hit the road for their second game in as many nights, but I believe this win will go a long way. With lots of off-ice drama distracting the team, this win should feel like a weight off their shoulders as they look to prove outside noise wrong. Meanwhile, the Rangers have lost four-straight games, but have yet to show some life like their opponents. A 10-2 loss to the Boston Bruins just four days ago proves they are in deep struggles. Missing stars Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin to injury does not help. For our Senators vs. Rangers prediction, we are siding with Ottawa on the money line.

Senators vs Rangers prediction: Senators ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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The Vegas Golden Knights hit the road for Southern California to battle the Los Angeles Kings for just the second time this season. In the first meeting, the Kings won a wild 6-5 shootout at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in the opener for the Golden Knights, and the second game of the season for the Kings. That was back on Oct. 8. The Kings have won four in a row in the series, and it has scored at least five goals in each of those victories. In fact, we’ve seen a total of 45 goals in the past five meetings in this series, or 9.0 goals per game (GPG). That’s five straight Over results, and seven Overs in the past nine meetings.

For VGK, it has won four consecutive games, averaging 5.0 GPG in the span, while allowing 44 goals in the past 12 games, or 3.7 GPG. The Over is 3-1 in the past four games for VGK, while going 9-3 across the past 12 games since Dec. 20. Vegas is good for 3.2 GPG overall this season, ranking No. 10 in the NHL, and a good reason for that scoring production is the power play. Vegas is hitting at a 26.1 percent clip on the man advantage, fourth in the NHL. It is just so-so defensively, with a turnstile in the crease with Carter Hart, Akira Schmid and Carl Lindbom seeing time. Adin Hill continues to deal with a lower-body injury, and Hart has a leg injury. Go high on the total, especially if you find it at 5.5.

Golden Knights vs Kings prediction: Over 5.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140, or Over 6 (-110).

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Many pontificators in the betting world thought the Jaguars would successfully move on to the Divisional Round, anchored by Liam Coen and their new-look defense. That never came to be. Instead, Buffalo secured their first road playoff win since 1992, led by more heroic efforts from Josh Allen. The esteemed Bills quarterback seemed to injure his knee and throwing hand on the same drive early in the game, but that didn’t stop him from accruing 306 total yards and 3 total touchdowns. When it mattered, Trevor Lawrence threw 2 key interceptions, one on the final drive, to seal the Buffalo victory. 

As usual, the Allen-led offense was more than effective, answering the call whenever needed. On the other hand, the Bills’ defense played good, not great, only a few times making stops when it mattered. Not ideal was that Jacksonville went 5-9 on 3rd downs and 3-4 in the red zone. In truth, if it wasn’t for Lawrence’s 2 interceptions, the final result might’ve been different. As usual, the onus of Buffalo’s future will remain with Allen and his ability, since we suspect their defense will continue to allow plenty of production from opponents. The Bills will face a much greater challenge this coming Saturday, up in elevation in Denver against a Broncos squad that knows how to win and will be coming off extended rest.

Denver is statistically the opposite of Buffalo. They can rely on their defense, a group that’s top-5 in nearly every metric (including a 1st-place ranking in opponent yards per game, 278.2), but their offense seems to only come alive when they need it. Bo Nix and his colleagues mostly present average to below average marks, particularly in yards per pass, where they generate just 6.4 (29th). This is true even though they own one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, permitting a sack on just 3.62% of plays (2nd overall). The good news for Denver is that they are good under pressure, averaging 7.7 points in the 4th quarter and successfully completing 5 4th-quarter comebacks this season. Of course, Josh Allen and the Bills are also pretty good in this category, too, averaging 9.2 4th-quarter points and earning a few 4th-quarter comebacks themselves.

We’re pretty certain this game will come down to the final drive. Since one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks will be facing one of the NFL’s best defenses, that makes this matchup all the more difficult to predict. At face value, the more rested team at home is generally the side to go with, especially considering their prowess on defense. Personally, we’d love to see Buffalo win, but the intangibles favor Denver.

Bills vs Broncos prediction: Broncos +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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If you watched last week‘s game between the 49ers and the Eagles, it wasn’t completely surprising to see the result. Since Brock Purdy has returned as the 49ers’ starting quarterback, they’re offense has been humming, right up there with the best passing operations in the NFL. Despite throwing two interceptions, Purdy was ice cold when it mattered most, going 6-11 on third downs and engineering 13 fourth-quarter points against one of the NFL’s best defenses. Perhaps most impressive about San Francisco’s production was that they only possessed the ball for 24 minutes. 

The Niners defense played well, but some of that is more on Philadelphia’s lackluster offense. The Eagles’ offensive operation has been pedestrian for most of the season, so it wasn’t surprising to see them stumbling through the second half, earning just 6 points and 104 yards in the final two quarters. Credit should be given to Robert Saleh and his roster, but we’re also not sure if it’s sustainable. That’s particularly true this weekend.

The Seahawks enter the divisional round off extended rest and they will host their first playoff game Saturday night. The dominance of their defense has been well documented, completely obliterating San Francisco in their last matchup in Week 18 (they held Brock Purdy and company to just 3 points and 173 yards). Offensively they left plenty on the field, garnering just 13 points themselves. Most impressively, they ran for 180 yards on 4.6 yards per carry, and completely controlled time of possession because of it (37:48 to 22:12). Their passing attack wasn’t that explosive, but Sam Darnold was efficient (20-26, 198 yards) and the game never felt within reach for the visiting Niners. 

While the rematch might not look the exact same, we are expecting a similar result. San Francisco’s impressive victory last Sunday came at the cost of George Kittle, their all-pro tight end who’s as crucial in blocking as he is in the pass catcher. He tore his achilles and will be out for the remainder of the season, yet another big loss to a roster that’s been severely beaten up this year. Add to the fact that San Francisco will only have six days to prepare for battle after a very physical matchup in the wildcard round and it’s hard not to imagine a Seattle blowout.

49ers vs Seahawks prediction: Seahawks -7.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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