Parlays

On paper, backing the Cavaliers hasn’t been profitable this season, as their 8-21 record against the spread suggests. However, that inefficiency is exactly why value exists on Monday. The market has consistently discounted Cleveland due to poor ATS results, even when the matchup clearly favors that side. This game against Charlotte is one of those spots in which the number doesn’t fully reflect the talent gap.

Charlotte’s defensive issues are well-documented. The Hornets rank among the league’s weakest perimeter defenses, which plays directly into Cleveland’s strengths. The Cavaliers boast multiple shot creators who can punish late rotations and extend leads quickly once they gain momentum. Offensively, the Hornets simply don’t have the scoring punch or efficiency to keep pace. This is a game script that favors a runaway scenario. Cleveland can build separation early, forcing Charlotte to chase the game and take lower-quality shots. That dynamic only widens the margin as the game progresses. With the spread suppressed due to Cleveland’s ATS struggles, bettors are getting the superior team at a reduced price. This is a strong position to confidently lay the points.

Hornets vs Cavaliers prediction: Cleveland -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a classic case of market inflation driven by reputation rather than reality. Boston at home against a struggling Indiana squad feels like an easy Celtics click, which is exactly why the number has ballooned. When bettors back the Celtics, they are not just betting basketball — they are betting the logo, the narrative and Boston’s perceived dominance.

Indiana’s 6-22 record is ugly, but that’s the point. Poor teams are often priced as if they’re incapable of competing, even when the matchup doesn’t justify such a large spread. The Pacers don’t need to be good to be profitable today — they simply need to stay competitive enough to cash a generous number. Boston is still the better team and may very well win this game comfortably. However, covering double-digits is a different challenge — especially against a team playing with nothing to lose. Blowout assumptions are dangerous when lines are this inflated. Any late-game variance, bench minutes, or reduced urgency from Boston opens the door for Indiana to hang around the number. This is a value-based play, not an endorsement of Indiana’s quality. When perception pushes a spread too far, the sharp side is taking the points — and that’s exactly the case here.

Pacers vs Celtics prediction: Indiana +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This line immediately raises eyebrows, which is exactly why it deserves attention. New Orleans is not a team the betting public is eager to back, especially against a Dallas squad that has found its rhythm and begun to look like a legitimate threat in the Western Conference. Yet despite all of that, the Pelicans are laying a point at home.

Situationally, this sets up well for New Orleans. Dallas has one eye already on a showdown against Denver tomorrow. That looming spotlight creates a classic lookahead spot — a scheduling dynamic that often leads to flat performances against lesser opponents. These are the exact scenarios in which inferior teams catch opponents off guard. The Pelicans don’t need to be better over the long haul; they just need to be sharper tonight. Playing at home, with urgency and nothing ahead to distract them, New Orleans is positioned to capitalize on any lack of focus from Dallas. These “why is this team favored?” lines exist for a reason. The market is signaling that New Orleans is no speed bump. In spots like this, trusting the line over perception is the sharp approach. I’m doing that and taking the Pels to get it done.

Mavericks vs Pelicans prediction: New Orleans -1 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The St. Louis Blues and Tampa Bay Lightning clash to help kick off a new week in the NHL. These teams have yet to meet this season, and with both playing well we should be in for a great matchup. To get you set, here is our Blues vs. Lightning prediction.

St. Louis was successful against the other FLA team in a 6-2 win over the Florida Panthers, but I don’t expect the same success in this one. Tampa Bay has been near or at the top of the Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division, but have been losing ground. They are 3-2-1 in their last six games, but are just getting over a three-game losing streak (0-2-1) that they will still be eagerly looking to recover from and string together some wins. While the Blues have been decent of late, I believe there are still many inconsistencies in their game proven by two recent losses to a mediocre Nashville Predators team that had them outscored 12-4. I expect a strong effort from Tampa Bay on home ice, giving St. Louis a number of issues and exploiting those inconsistencies. For our Blues vs. Lightning prediction, take Tampa Bay to win in regulation.

Blues vs Lightning prediction: Lightning 3-way ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable to -170.

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It’s an intra-conference showdown as the Vancouver Canucks and Philadelphia Flyers hit the ice on Monday in the NHL. This will be Philadelphia’s last home game until January 6th, and will be looking to produce a strong showing against a hot team. To get you ready for the game, here is our Canucks vs. Flyers prediction.

Since the major trade of Quinn Hughes from Vancouver to the Minnesota Wild, they have played surprisingly well. They have won four-straight games, and have outscored teams 14-6. Philadelphia has had a great year, but as of late their winning results have not been as frequent. The team is just 2-2-4 in their last eight contests. If Vancouver wants to make somthing of this season, they are taking the right steps but still have lots of work to do. They will be an interesting to monitor this season. With how hot they’ve been, and morale at an all-time high this season, it is hard to see them losing to a team with similar strength. For our Canucks vs. Flyers prediction, take the Canucks to win as road underdogs.

Canucks vs. Flyers prediction: Vancouver Canucks money line (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable to (+100).

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The Seattle Kraken will be in Anaheim on Monday night to take on the Ducks. The Kraken have been struggling big-time of late. In their last 10 games, they are 2-8-0. They are statistically the worst offensive team in the league, averaging only 2.52 goals per game. Their defensive game isn’t nearly good enough to make up for it, as they are averaging 3.06 goals against per game. Going up against the Anaheim, Seattle’s defensive game is going to be put to the test. The Ducks are averaging an impressive 3.44 goals per game. These 2 teams faced off in their opening game of the season, when Seattle prevailed 3-1. Since then, these teams have headed in completely opposite directions. As such, I think we will see a very different outcome.

The leading point-scorer on the Kraken only has 21. The Ducks boast 7 players with 21 or more points. Plain and simple, the Kraken don’t possess the offense to keep up with the Ducks. Anaheim been really good on home ice this season, with a 12-5-0 record. Give me the Ducks on the puck line.

Kraken vs Ducks prediction: Anaheim -1.5 (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Central Michigan Chippewas will travel to Madison on Monday to play a non-conference game against the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin needs a bounce-back win in this one after losing its past 2 games. The Badgers got blown out by Nebraska and lost to Villanova in overtime, but Central Michigan should be a much easier opponent. The Chippewas are just 4-8 on the season, and 2 of those wins came against non-Division I opponents. They are ranked just #324 at KenPom and will likely struggle to keep it close inside the Kohl Center. Wisconsin to cover the spread is my best bet.

The Badgers should be playing with a great sense of urgency following their last two games. They are the better team both offensively and defensively that we should see displayed on Monday night. According to KenPom, Central Michigan’s defense is ranked just #343 nationally in adjusted efficiency and they should struggle to stop Wisconsin’s offense. Central Michigan has suffered double-digit loses this year to Bradley, Northern Kentucky, Marquette, Loyola-Chicago, Saint Louis and Stony Brook. I believe the Badgers are better than all those teams mentioned, so they should be able to cruise to an easy victory.

Central Michigan vs Wisconsin prediction: Wisconsin -30.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -32.

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Illinois looks vulnerable on the surface, and that’s exactly what we want. Nine days ago the Illini were double-digit favorites against an undefeated Nebraska team and lost on a buzzer-beater. That result is fresh in the market’s mind, and bettors are understandably hesitant to lay points again — especially in a neutral-site rivalry game against a Missouri team that enters 10–2. That hesitation is precisely what creates value.

This is the bragging-rights game, but despite the rivalry branding, the matchup itself leans toward Illinois. The oddsmakers are clearly daring the market to take the points with Missouri, pricing Illinois in nearly the same range as the Nebraska game despite public reluctance. That’s telling. Illinois didn’t suddenly lose its identity or capability because of one blip. The Fighting Illini still have the size, athleticism and 2-way balance to dictate terms for 40 minutes. Missouri’s record looks shiny, but the Illini are being discounted because of one recent result that had emotional viscous attached — not because the matchup changed. This is a spot in which the market overreacts to a single result. This is also where we step in. We’ll trust the underlying quality that the Illini possess on a regular basis. Illinois wins this game by the necessary margin.

Illinois vs Missouri prediction: Illinois -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a purely academic play. Arizona is ranked as the top team in the country, and with that ranking comes automatic inflation in the betting market. Brand power, poll position and public appetite all collide to produce numbers like this. Bethune Cookman doesn’t factor into the pricing equation as a basketball team; BC exists here as a name that allows Arizona to lay a mountain of points.

But motivation matters. Christmas break is around the corner, conference play is looming and Arizona has nothing to prove in this spot. This isn’t a statement game; it’s an obligation. The Wildcats’ goal is simple: get through it clean, spread the minutes, avoid injuries and move on with the #1 ranking intact. Covering nearly 40 points is not part of the mission statement. When elite teams face low-profile opponents in these pre-holiday windows, intensity drops fast once control is established. Rotations widen, pace slows and the foot comes off the gas. That’s where inflated numbers go to die. Bethune Cookman doesn’t need to be competitive for 40 minutes; it just needs Arizona to disengage for a stretch or 2. This isn’t about basketball quality — Desert Storm is clearly superior. This is about paying a tax for that perception in a less than conducive spot. I’m betting against excess, not against Arizona.

Bethune Cookman vs Arizona prediction: Bethune Cookman +39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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