Parlays

The resistable force meets the movable object when the 1-11 Tennessee Titans make the trip to Cleveland to take on the 3-9 Browns, and the disastrous season should continue for the visitors. It’s been a rough first season for rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who has not thrown more than 1 touchdown pass in any game this season and has exceeded 200 passing yards just once in his last 4 games. He now comes up against a vicious Browns defense that has allowed the 3rd-fewest passing yards while posting the 2nd-most sacks in the NFL. Given the Titans have allowed the most sacks this season, Ward should be running for his life throughout this matchup. Tennessee’s offense has been totally anemic, scoring more than 20 points just once in its last 7 games, and given how stingy this Cleveland D has been, it’s hard to see the Titans having much success at all putting points on the board.

The Browns should win this one, but will they be good enough on offense to cover? They managed just 8 points against the 49ers last week, but Shedeur Sanders has at least been serviceable in his 2 starts while Quinshon Judkins has been hot in recent weeks. That spells bad news for a Titans defense that has allowed the 2nd-most rushing touchdowns, while through the air they’re allowing the 2nd-most passing yards per attempt. Tennessee has allowed 25+ points in 5 of their last 6 games, and this matchup should see the Browns moving the chains with a lot more ease than the Titans. Take Cleveland to win and cover.

Titans vs Browns prediction: Cleveland Browns -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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It will be a showdown in the AFC East when the Miami Dolphins visit the New York Jets in Week 14 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Once left for dead with head coach Mike McDaniel all but fired at 1-6, Miami has completely turned things around with 4 wins in its last 5 games. I expect that momentum to continue, so my Dolphins vs Jets pick is for the visitors to win and cover. The Dolphins failed to cover in last week’s victory at New Orleans, but they probably should have won by a lot more than 4 points — squandering almost the entirety of a 16-0 lead in the 2nd half.

It is true that the Fins are not very good on the road, but it’s not like MetLife Stadium is a difficult place to play. The Jets’ only home wins are over Atlanta and Cleveland, and they are 3-9 overall. It would not be out of bounds to argue that they should be — or at least could be — 0-12. New York beat Atlanta 27-24 this past weekend despite getting dominated in all phases of the game other than special teams. It scraped past Cleveland 27-20 while gaining 169 yards of total offense. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s squad outlasted Cincinnati 39-38 when the Bengals did not have Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, Miami’s 4-1 stretch includes a 30-13 rout of Buffalo. Although Tua Tagovailoa is not the most trustworthy quarterback, I will roll with him, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle over anyone and anything the Jets can offer.
 
Dolphins vs Jets best bet: Dolphins -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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The two oldest rivals in the NFL have plenty on the line this Sunday at Lambeau Field. The Bears (9-3) lead the NFC North heading into Week 14 and will visit the Packers (8-3-1), who are playing their third consecutive division foe. Green Bay has passed the first two tests, handling Minnesota at home, 23-6, followed by a 31-24 triumph at Detroit as 3-point underdogs on Thanksgiving. Now, the Packers look for the trifecta to pass the Bears for first place in the division.

Chicago has been impressive in Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach, overcoming an 0-2 start to win 9 of the last 10 games. During this span, the Bears have won 6 games by 5 points or less, but put together a strong road effort in the 24-15 Black Friday victory at Philadelphia as 7.5-point underdogs. The Bears have covered 3 straight games and are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 opportunities in the underdog role. These teams will meet twice in the next 3 weeks, and both matchups last season were decided by a combined 3 points. Green Bay won at Chicago, 20-19 as 6-point underdogs, but the Bears knocked off the Packers in the season finale at Lambeau, 24-22 as 10.5-point dogs.

Two of the worst offensive efforts for Green Bay came at home against Carolina and Philadelphia in consecutive losses in early November. The Packers combined for 20 points in those defeats, but Green Bay has averaged 27.0 ppg in the past 3 victories. Green Bay went through a 1-7 ATS slump before picking up covers against Minnesota and Detroit. In last Thursday’s win over the Lions, the Pack were paced by QB Jordan Love’s 4 TD passes, his 6th multi-touchdown performance of the season. Interestingly enough, Love has not thrown a touchdown pass in Green Bay’s last 3 home games. Let’s look at backing the Packers here to pass the Bears for first in the NFC North with a home victory.

Bears vs Packers prediction: Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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No. 21 Kansas welcomes Missouri as the Jayhawks look to rebound from their tough loss against No. 5 UConn earlier in the week. Kansas started fast in that matchup, but the offense stalled in the second half, managing just 23 points. MIsouri, meanwhile, is coming off a 76-71 loss to Notre Dame – a team Kansas beat by 10. This is a step up in competition for the Tigers, and the Jayhawks have the edge in this matchup and here’s why. 

According to KenPom, the Jayhawks rank 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency compared to Missouri who ranks 70th in that category. Neither team likes to play at a fast pace, and the Jayhawks will look to cool off a Missouri team that’s averaging 90.4 points per game this season. Kansas managed to hold UConn to just 61 points, Tennessee to 76, and Duke to 78, and all three of them have a very dangerous and deep offense. Flory Bidunga will be a nightmare for the Tigers –  the sophomore is averaging 15.2 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Shawn Phillips Jr. is a 7 ‘0 senior for Missouri who’s averaging 9.1 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, and he’ll try to box out Bidunga in this matchup, but he won’t have much success. The Jayhawks’ defense should be able to cool down the Tigers offensively, and Melvin Council Jr., Bidunga, and Tre White should help their team pick up a much-needed win at home on Sunday afternoon. 

Missouri vs Kansas prediction: Kansas -6.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The LSU Tigers face the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Sunday afternoon, a game that will be played in Fort Worth. It is a big weekend for Texas Tech folks in the Metroplex, watching their football team dominate the Big 12 Championship on Saturday and then maybe hanging around for some basketball on Sunday. The Red Raiders brought back much of the roster that lost to eventual national champion Florida in the Elite 8 last year, and they should still be great this year. LSU has struggled for a couple of seasons now, and despite their 8-0 start, I have a hard time believing in them just yet. Give me the Red Raiders -6 on Sunday.

LSU did what they needed to do this year—schedule a soft non-conference and win those games. Sunday will be their first significant opponent. Their metrics look great, but that is probably smoke and mirrors, and they will fade fast as conference play starts. The Red Raiders, on the other hand, have been beaten by Purdue and Illinois, but they will be right in the mix of the loaded Big 12 standings all year. They have the best player in the conference in JT Toppin (assuming all the stud freshmen don’t overtake him), and I have to think they are miles ahead of the Tigers in terms of roster talent. Maybe LSU will prove me wrong, but I’m not convinced they are very good, and we know the Red Raiders are.

LSU vs Texas Tech Prediction: Texas Tech -6 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.