Parlays

Thanksgiving Day features a trio of excellent NFL games, and one of the most consequential matchups of the weekend comes in the NFC North, where the Detroit Lions are set to host the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of a Week 1 contest in which Green Bay dominated the proceedings. Both of these teams have been up-and-down all season long, with the Lions struggling to generate consistent success against strong defenses without the services of Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, while the Packers are also searching for more consistency on a week-to-week basis on offense. Even in last week’s convincing win over Minnesota, Jordan Love and company were still held to less than 300 total yards of offense and largely benefitted from being plus-three in turnovers. However, what Green Bay does have is a very strong defense, which has the ability to generate pressure on Jared Goff and force the veteran quarterback into mistakes, much like we saw in the Week 1 meeting between these teams. As long as the Packers can somewhat limit the effectiveness of Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground, they should do a solid job of getting this Detroit offense off the field.

As for the hosts, the Lions have typically been an excellent team at home in the Dam Campbell era, but it has been tough sledding for Detroit in its recent home games. In fact, the Lions have been struggling against inferior competition, with Detroit losing outright as a significant favorite to the Vikings and needing overtime to get past the lowly Giants last week. This is not the same offense that we are used to seeing out of the Lions, and Johnson’s absence has clearly been felt in the first season with a new play-caller at the controls. On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defense has allowed a combined 54 points in its last 2 home games against the likes of J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston. That doesn’t bode well for the Lions in this NFC North showdown.

Packers vs Lions prediction: Packers ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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The Thanksgiving Day schedule in Week 13 of the NFL season features a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. It is an absolutely massive matchup, as both teams are teetering on the edge of wild-card contention in their respective conferences. I would not back the Cowboys without the hook, but I think they can keep this contest within a field goal. As such, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is for the home team to cover. Dallas kept itself alive in the NFC playoff picture with a monumental 24-21 victory over Philadelphia from 21-0 down this past Sunday at AT&T Stadium. The defense has looked much improved (granted, that’s not saying a lot) following the trade-deadline acquisitions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson, while QB Dak Prescott and WR George Pickens are simply on fire these days. Pickens has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past 2 games.

Kansas City kept its AFC wild-card hopes afloat with a 23-20 home win over Indianapolis in Week 12. It was an impressive result, but the Chiefs were behind 20-9 in the fourth quarter and just 1 or 2 plays by Daniel Jones here and there could have iced it in the Colts’ favor. These still aren’t the Chiefs of old. They are 6-5 overall and had lost 2 straight prior to their defeat of Indy. They are 1-4 away from home this season (1-3 in true road games). Patrick Mahomes delivering more late heroics to steal a win would not come as much of a surprise, but I don’t see the visitors covering -3.5.

Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction: Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Ravens eked out another win, their 5th straight, and with it reclaimed the top spot in the AFC North. A month-plus of nonstop victories is impressive, but they’re still leaving plenty to be desired. For example, their 5 straight wins came without a single game in which Lamar Jackson threw over 200 yards. Their rushing has been far more consistent and remains one of the best operations in the NFL (fifth in yards per carry, averaging 4.9), which is what we’ve been used to from John Harbaugh’s regime.

Defensively, we’re more impressed. Besides the Bears, who rank 9th in total offensive EPA, the Ravens’ defense has benefitted from an easy slate of opponents over the last 5 weeks. They’re still doing their jobs, and during the current winning streak, they’ve kept enemy offenses to just 307.6 yards per game — a far cry from the 380.3 yards per game they allowed in 6 previous battles. Still, we have yet to see the Ravens’ defense against an above-average offense. That won’t be the case on Thursday.

On the Bengals’ side, it’s all about Joe Burrow. Cincinnati is obviously one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranked dead-last in total defensive EPA. Against the run, they rank 29th, which is even more concerning against the Ravens (156 opponent rush yards per game, 31st). But there’s a reality in which the Bengals can hang around if their star quarterback returns, a guy who instantly changes the mood of the entire franchise. At 3-8 and with very low chances of making a playoff run, we questioned whether Zac Taylor and the Bengals’ brass would let that happen. Despite our doubts, as of Monday reports from Cincinnati say the All-Pro will play, and he’ll be joined by fellow All-Pro Ja’Marr Chase, who’s coming off a suspension.

At first glance this seemed like an auto-bet on Baltimore but now we think it’s anything but. What opened as a -10.5-point spread is now down to -6.5 and for good reason. Other than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Burrow is as valuable as any single player. We like the Bengals’ extra juice from #9’s return to give us a close contest.

Bengals vs Ravens prediction: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.5.

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The annual Egg Bowl is one of the best rivalries in college football and Saturday’s installment has the potential to be one of the more consequential games in this rivalry on Friday, as Ole Miss needs a win to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff, while the Bulldogs are looking to pick up a victory to make a bowl game after starting the season with little to no expectations. This is also a game where there are a ton of off-field distractions at hand, as the Rebels are expected to lose head coach Lane Kiffin at the end of the regular season based on recent reporting. Given the fact that this could be Kiffin’s last game as the head coach in Oxford and he’s likely headed to another team within the SEC, it would be fair to question if both he and his team are in the right frame of mind to hit the road and play in an extremely important game to clinch a College Football Playoff berth against an opponent that is better than their record.

I successfully backed Mississippi State against multiple SEC foes this season, and I’m going back to the well with the Bulldogs at home against an Ole Miss team that has to be in a strange spot mentally at the moment. Ole Miss just struggled to put away Florida at home in its last contest and Mississippi State is certainly a better team than the reeling Gators. Furthermore, the Bulldogs will be at home, where they’ve excelled at this season, already beating Arizona State as an underdog of a touchdown and nearly upsetting both Texas and Tennessee as a home ‘dog of around a touchdown. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has undoubtedly been a pleasant surprise this season, but playing on the road in this type of rivalry game will still be a new experience for a player in Chambliss that is due for some turnover regression sooner rather than later. 

As for the other side of the ball, the Mississippi State offense should be able to keep the Bulldogs in this game, especially against an Ole Miss defense that has struggled in a number of conference games this season. The Mississippi State offense is a veteran group that sits in the top 20 nationally in rushing success rate and points per quality drive. We can expect Jeff Lebby’s group to be the one to bring the energy and punch Ole Miss in the mouth early on, which should lead to a fun back-and-forth game. We just saw Ole Miss lose a similar “win and in” type of game a season ago at Florida as a significant favorite, and it wouldn’t surprise me if history repeated itself on Friday.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +7

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Another chapter of the in-state rivalry known as “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” will be written on Saturday when the Georgia Bulldogs meet the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Friday at 3:30 PM ET on ABC. The Bulldogs have been on a torrid run since losing at home to Alabama, winning 7 straight games and scoring an average of 33.3 points per game in that span. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech’s season started sputtering out of control with a loss at NC State in Week 10, followed by a near-loss at Boston College in Week 12. Last week, the Yellow Jackets lost their grip on the ACC title race with an ugly loss against Pitt, so they will now have to rely on Virginia Tech and California beating Virginia and SMU, respectively, in order to earn a spot in Charlotte’s ACC title game. 

Georgia Tech’s Achilles heel has been its defense all season long, and last week was a clear example of that – as the Yellow Jackets surrendered 412 yards and 35 offensive points to a Pitt team that was just held to 219 yards and 15 points at home against Notre Dame the week prior. Since Week 9, Tech ranks outside the top 115 in most defensive metrics, and it’s not going to get any easier for the Yellow Jackets this week when they line up opposite of a Georgia offense that has been one of the best in the country of late. The ‘Dawgs are top-8 in PPA per play and points per quality drive outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks, and they are especially good on standard downs in that time – which is where Tech has been at its worst lately. 

On the other side of the ball, Georgia boasts a very strong run defense that sits top-11 in total rush yards allowed, rushing yards per game, and yards per rush. This bodes well for the ‘Dawgs, as Tech is typically very good on the ground – especially on standard downs. Georgia’s innate ability to limit big plays will also play a factor in this game considering one of GT’s biggest offensive attributes is its explosiveness. Now throw in the unquantifiable angle of a potential letdown spot for Tech after losing hold of the ACC title race, and it’s hard to find any reliable path to a Jackets cover here. My numbers make this a 15-point Georgia win on a neutral field, and you could probably argue that Georgia may even deserve a point for pseudo-home-field advantage while playing at Mercedes-Benz since this program does it so frequently.  Lay it with the ‘Dawgs. 

Georgia vs Georgia Tech prediction: Georgia Bulldogs -13 at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -14.

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The Lonestar Showdown returned after a 12-year hiatus last year when the #3 Texas Longhorns went into College Station and beat the #20 Texas A&M Aggies 17-7. One year later, the roles are essentially reversed, as the Aggies are #3 in the CFP Rankings coming into this game while the ‘Horns are #17. As it stands, Texas A&M is 1 of 3 undefeated teams remaining in the FBS. 

Texas has been touted as one of the strongest defenses in the country, but that hasn’t been the case in recent weeks. The Longhorns have surrendered at least 31 points in 4 straight games against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Arkansas, and now they square off against one of the best and most electrifying offenses in the country in Texas A&M. The Aggies come into this game as a top-15 team in scoring, total offense, and yards per play, and they have top-35 red-zone offense to boot. 

On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M has one of the most aggressive defenses in the country. The Aggies are 2nd nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss, which is going to put a ton of pressure on Arch Manning and a mediocre offensive line by SEC standards – one that is 78th in sacks surrendered and 92nd in tackles for loss allowed. Furthermore, the Longhorns have struggled offensively on standard downs and with their run-game efficiency, and that’s not going to put them in very favorable positions against what has been the best third-down defense in the country this year. 

Texas’ offense has been below-average at best in scoring situations, sitting 84 in points scored per quality drive over the last 5 weeks and outside the top 70 in red zone scoring over the course of the whole season. When you combine their red-zone woes with what has become an unreliable defense, it’s hard to trust the Longhorns against what’s been a wagon of a Texas A&M team – maybe aside from a single, fluky half against South Carolina. Give me Texas A&M, but on the money line given its affordable price. 

Texas A&M vs Texas prediction: Texas A&M Aggies ML (-122) on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -135 or up to -2.5 on the spread.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes may have won the national title last year, but I can promise you one thing, Buckeye Nation has not forgotten about the 13-10 home loss to Michigan – OSU’s lone blemish on an otherwise memborable season. In fact, I would argue the fanbase dwells more on that loss than it celebrates the championship at times, but that’s the beauty of college athletics – rivalries just mean that much more. 

After losing 8 in a row to the Buckeyes, the Wolverines have rattled off 4 straight wins, but I sense that streak is going to end this year. I said that last year, but this year I really mean it. I don’t even need to reference stats, and I don’t need to sell how important this game is for the Buckeyes. Being from Ohio myself, even if I am not an OSU alum, I just know. This game means more than a regular season game, and it’s not even because of what’s at stake as it pertains to the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff seeding, it’s because it’s Michigan, and it’s about revenge. Plain and simple. This game has been circled since the moment Ryan Day walked in his office after the mystifying 3-point loss last year, and I can assure you, the Buckeyes will be ready for this one – and they’re not going to let up.

If you want some stats and information, I have some for you. Michigan is extremely banged up right now. Starting RB Justice Haynes is out, as is starting safety Rod Moore. Meanwhile, starting FB Max Bredeson (a key blocker) and LB Ernest Hausmann are questions at this moment. If these guys can walk without a limp and endure pain without more than a grimace, I expect them to play – as I expect both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate to play. 

When completely healthy, this Ohio State offense is eons better than Michigan’s. The Buckeyes are top-10 in almost every offensive stat category imaginable, and the same can be said about the defensive side of the ball. On the contrary, Michigan has a middling-to-below-average offense outside of its run game – which OSU is likely to stifle. Defensively, the Wolverines just haven’t been good enough down-to-down or in scoring situations to make me think they are going to suffocate the Buckeyes like they did last year. After all, most of Michigan’s defensive stalwarts from last year’s edition of The Game are now in the NFL. 

I get it – laying double digits in a rivalry game on the road in wintry conditions isn’t ideal, but none of it matters here. Ohio State imposes its will, Michigan struggles to get going, and the Buckeyes put away the Wolverines convincingly. 

Ohio State vs Michigan prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -9.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11.

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The in-state rivalry between Vanderbilt and Tennessee doesn’t have an official name, but it’s been around since the late 1800s. The Volunteers have won the last 4 meetings, scoring at least 36 points in each game, and while Vanderbilt tried to be competitive in some of those recent meetings, the Commodores feel much more well-equipped to handle Tennessee this time around.

The ‘Dores are top-10 in scoring, total offense, yards per play, and red-zone touchdown rate on the season as a whole, and they haven’t let off the gas of late. Since Week 9, Vandy is 6th in PPA per play, including top-20 efficiency on both standard and passing downs, and top-20 points per quality drive. Moreover, the Commodores continue to be one of the best third-offenses in the country thanks to being in more manageable situations via their efficiency on first and second downs – which is a weakness of this Tennessee defense. The Vols are outside the top 80 in third-down conversion rate allowed, and they can be had in the red zone – as they rank third-to-last (134th) in opposing red-zone touchdown rate. 

I never want to try to pretend like a rivalry game doesn’t matter for one team, but I would argue this game means way more for Vanderbilt than it does Tennessee. The Vols in CFP purgatory. Meaning, they are bowl eligible, but not good enough to make the 12-team playoff with 3 losses. Meanwhile, the Commodores are 9-2, and a win over Tennessee mixed in with some help above them could lead to a Vanderbilt playoff berth – just like everyone envisioned at the beginning of the year. 

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores +3 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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Rivalry week comes to the Carolinas on Saturday night as the North Carolina State Wolfpack hosts the North Carolina Tar Heels. The inaugural season of Bill Belichick has not gone well, and taking a shot at their in-state rival will be the end of the road for the 4-7 Heels. The Wolpack have pulled off a couple of upsets, including a defeat of then-unbeaten Georgia Tech and then a win over Florida State last week. In this kind of rivalry, heaven only knows how the game will go, and it is hard to think that metrics and trends will hold. Instead, I am going to play the over, especially at a relatively low number. Give me the game total over 47.5.

I love to pick on the NC State defense; they are really bad. The Pack ranks 127 out of 134 in total defense, and prior to Florida State’s ineptitude last week, NC State had given up 41, 36, 53, and 36 in the previous 4 games. I just don’t see how they stop anyone, and I am happy to fade that defense any time. UNC has struggled on both sides of the ball though, and that has this number low. Still, this is a rivalry game, and everyone will pull out all the stops, with nothing to lose. I think this game is really likely to escalate quickly, and it is far more likely to turn into a shootout than a grind.

North Carolina vs North Carolina State Prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at the time of publication. Playable at that number.