Parlays

What we have here are two middle of the road AAC teams jocking for positioning and looking to gain some momentum as tourney time approaches. The Owls and the Owls (yes, this is a battle of two squads named after the same bird of wisdom) are both are sitting with 15 wins each on the season, just above .500. Both will need to likely win the American Athletic Conference tournament to secure a trip to March Madness. Both teams are also trending downward with Temple dropping their last four outings overall while FAU is 1-7 SU in their last eight. The good news is, someone has to win here.

In a contest that has a lot of uncertainty, and for intent and purpose, could go either way, taking the underdog on the money line is the most conducive move here. That’s Temple in this equation. These two teams last met in Philadelphia back in January with Florida Atlantic securing a 79-73 win. But that’s no reason to bank on FAU. Temple led in that game at the half, but a 49-point second half allowed Florida Atlantic to escape with a win. Temple’s offense didn’t parry the onslaught. The problem for Florida Atlantic as of late has been that their offense has only gone over 80 points in one of their last ten contests, while their defense has given up 80 or more in four of their last seven defeats. And what is most harrowing about Florida Atlantic? Their inability to get a stop or find a basket when it matters most. Four of these seven defeats were by a sole possession. In summation, you don’t want to spot points in a game that the Owls can easily lose straight up and getting plus money to fade them in a 50-50 situation is value. Temple outright.

Temple vs Florida Atlantic prediction: Temple ML (+155) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Headlining mid-major Thursday is a no-so-mid-major battle between Michigan State and Purdue – the day’s only power-conference matchup. Michigan State comes into this contest off 2 straight home wins and is 3-1 SU in their last 4, but the Spartans have lost 2 straight road games and are 3-3 in their last 6 dating back to the loss to Michigan. Meanwhile, Purdue will play their 2nd straight home game after dominating Indiana on Friday; the Boilermakers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 following their 3-game losing streak at the end of January. Purdue has controlled this series of late, winning 11 of the last 15 meetings over the last 10 years. In fact, Michigan State has not won in West Lafayette since 2014, and the Boilers have won most of those games by double digits. 

This is a battle of 2 of the top 4 defenses in the Big Ten from an efficiency standpoint, and both of them excel at limiting transition opportunities and defending in the paint. Purdue loves to send help, which tends to leave shooters open, but Michigan State is not much of a jump-shooting team and they don’t play with much spacing. They have their good games, but they aren’t consistent at all. Meanwhile, the Spartans will hedge against Braden Smith in ball screens, which worked well last year in this matchup, but he’s been much better in the turnover department of late and the Spartans haven’t exactly been the best at forcing steals lately – sitting in the 5th percentile nationally in steal percentage over their last 5. 

Neither team plays fast, sitting below the 30th percentile in pace this season at around 65 possessions per game, and they’re playing even slower of late. Over their last 5 games, Michigan State has played to about 62.5 possessions per game, while Purdue is around 63.7. If both teams can limit turnovers and the amount of offensive rebounds they surrender, this should be a lower-scoring game that stays under the total. 

Michigan State vs Purdue prediction: Under 142.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -141.5. 

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Who doesn’t love the Shockers here? They are 18-10 SU while the hosts are just 12-15 SU and these two teams met in January with Wichita State mopping Memphis by 15 points. The Tigers are on a four-game skid while the Shockers have won their last three in a row. And yet, Memphis, yes, Memphis is the favorite. That says it all.

This play is about reading the line and backing the number, not the teams. The fact that Wichita State is an underdog here appears ludicrous and they look too easy. Generally speaking this is almost certainly means that win or lose, the Tigers are the side to bet on here. There will be a plethora of angles as to why Wichita State as an underdog could be the “best bet of the day” according to many eyes of the market. But that is the set-up. If Wichita State were in position to cruise here, they would be the chalk, and a heavy one at that. Instead, they are somehow a road underdog. There is one caveat. Memphis plays at a higher level in the Music City, they are 10-4 SU in their own bar and that accounts for 83% of their win share this season. The Shockers will likely finish with 20 wins in the regular season and make a deep run in the AAC tournament, but tonight’s forecast is a loss for State. I am listening.

Wichita State vs Memphis prediction: Memphis -1 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Phoenix Suns have been really struggling for form, which makes sense considering that both Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks have been out in recent games. That will remain the case tonight as they welcome the Los Angeles Lakers. Jalen Green will have to step up and shoulder more of the offensive load, but it is something he has struggled with. In February the Suns guard is making just 34% of his field goal attempts and 21.7% of his shots from deep. Over the last 4 games he is averaging nearly 21 attempts per game and with that inefficiency it is not surprising that the Suns as a team have been held to under 100-points in regulation in each game.

The Lakers have been very strong on the road this season, with an 18-11 record so far. Unlike the Suns, they have had no issues with efficiency either, ranking 7th in true shooting percentage over the last 10 games while the Suns are dead last in that category. With Luka Doncic and LeBron James being very physical players inside, the absence of Brooks will be a major problem for the Suns. Deandre Ayton has been great against the Suns this season too, putting together an average of 14.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. It’s hard to see how this shorthanded Suns team keeps this game competitive against the firepower the visitors possess.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Phoenix Suns prediction: Lakers -5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Lakers -7.5.

The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks will be playing the second leg of a 2-game series in Atlanta when these 2 Southeast Division rivals meet again on Thursday. To say that the first one did not go well for Washington would be a gross understatement. Don’t be fooled by the 21-point margin on Tuesday — the Hawks’ 119-98 victory wasn’t even that close. They led by 36 points going into the fourth quarter before calling off the dogs. Jonathan Kuminga made his Atlanta debut after being acquired from Golden State prior to the trade deadline. Kuminga’s contributions were immediate in the form of 27 points on 9-for-12 shooting (3-for-4 from downtown) to go along with 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals. There is no reason to think that the rematch will be any different, so my Wizards vs Hawks prediction is for the home side to win and cover.

After all, the Wizards want to lose games. They are 16-41 and in the mix for the worst record in basketball as they bid for the #1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. The Hawks, on the other hand, need all the wins they can get. They are 2 games inside the Eastern Conference play-in tournament cut line and 4 games out of an automatic top-6 playoff spot. Jalen Johnson (hip) is questionable for the Hawks, but his status shouldn’t matter. They completely dominated the Wizards on Tuesday even though Johnson logged just 6 minutes. It would mean more time for Kuminga if Johnson can’t take the floor. The Wizards are without Anthony Davis, Trae Young and Alex Sarr. Kyshawn George and Tristan Vuckcevic are questionable.

Wizards vs Hawks prediction: Atlanta -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Portland hasn’t had the best of times after the restart, winning just 1 of their 3 games. The only win came against the shorthanded Suns in a low scoring affair on the road. On Thursday the Trail Blazers are in Chicago, facing a team that’s lost 10 games in a row. However, the Bulls did win the first meeting of the season between the two sides back in mid-November 122-121 in Portland. In fact, Portland has recorded just 1 win in 8 meetings vs this team, while against East opponents in general they’re just 1-5 SU in 6 such games. Deni Avdija remains sidelined with his back issue, interim head coach Tiago Splitter will have to dig deep into his bench to find points here.

I’m struggling to find any positives to say about the Chicago Bulls at this time. They’ve lost all hope of making it into the play-in tournament, switching directions completely before the trade deadline and opting to tank the rest of the season. With 4 losses after the break things are going according to plan, even the return of Josh Giddey hasn’t motivated this unit to start playing better. With back-to-back home games of just 99 points scored vs New York and Charlotte, it’s quite evident that they simply don’t have the capacity to put up a large volume of points. But who knows, maybe that changes against the 20th ranked defense of the Blazers which allows 113.5 points per 100 possessions this season?

Even though Portland is the favorite here, something tells me the Bulls won’t be without a chance. Yes, they’ve looked bad lately, but all streaks have to come to an end at some point. As we saw with the Sacramento Kings the other day, the Bulls cannot keep losing forever. With much tougher opponents coming their way in the days and weeks ahead, this might be their best opportunity to put an end to this losing streak. I’ll take the Bulls in this one.

Trail Blazers vs Bulls prediction: Bulls +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Tampa Bay Lightning doubled up the Toronto Maple Leafs by a 4-2 count on Wednesday night at Benchmark International Arena, and then they hopped a charter flight for Raleigh/Durham to battle the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday night at Lenovo Center. The Lightning arrived into RDU at 1:05 a.m. ET, so they likely didn’t get to their team hotel until at least 2 a.m., and likely not to sleep until well after that. It’s a quick turnaround after a tough divisional game, even with the long layoff for the Olympic break preceding these two games. Andrei Vasilevskiy was in the crease for the win over the Leafs, so Olympian Jonas Johansson is expected to the get nod.

For the Hurricanes, rookie Brandon Bussi, a Calder and Vezina Trophy possibility is expected to be in the crease. It’s a tough assignment for Bussi against a Tampa Bay team which is 20-1-1 in the past 22 games dating back to Dec. 20, and the hot streak started against the Hurricanes in Tampa. If Vasilevskiy was the starter, and not the backup, the red-hot Lightning would be the play. But, go with the Hurricanes because Bussi, who just continues to defy the odds and beat his detractors.

Lightning vs Hurricanes prediction: Hurricanes ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable to -160.

The Philadelphia Flyers were down in the nation’s capital to battle the Washington Capitals on Wednesday, and they were on the short end of a 3-1 loss against Team Canada backup goaltender Logan Thompson and the Caps. The struggles on offense for the Flyers carried over past the Olympic break. Philly has totaled just 14 goals in the past seven games, or 2.0 goals per game (GPG), while it has allowed just 2.5 GPG. It’s no surprise that the Under has cashed in four consecutive games. On the road, the Over is 9-2 in the past 11 games.

For the Rangers, while they’ve struggled at home this season, going 6-15-4 with seven shutout losses on home ice. The Rangers have been blanked nine times total, too. The Over is 9-3-1 across the past 13 games, as Jonathan Quick and Spencer Martin haven’t quite gotten their footing in the crease filling in for the injured Igor Shesterkin (lower body). The Rangers will also be without Adam Fox on defense due to an LBI, while Conor Sheary is out up front with an LBI, and Mika Zibanejad is under the weather. The Flyers are healthy, and they should add to the woes of the Rangers on home ice.

Flyers vs Rangers prediction: Flyers ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.

Both the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings are looking to get back on track after suffering losses on Wednesday night. The Oilers fell to the Ducks by a score of 6-5, while the Kings lost to the Golden Knights 6-4. The Kings have struggled at home all season long, as they own a less-than-ideal 8-12-7 record on home ice at Crypto.com Arena. Things won’t get any easier going up against Connor McDavid and company in this one.

The Kings suffered some tough injury news over the Olympic break, as winger Kevin Fiala sustained a lower leg fracture early on in the Olympic tournament in Italy. He has already been ruled out for the remainder of this season, and is slated to miss a significant chunk of next season as well. His loss is a big one, as Fiala was second on the team with 40 points on 18 goals and 22 assists through 56 games. For a team that has struggled to find consistent offense all season long, not having Fiala on the ice puts Los Angeles in a tough spot. The Kings rank 29th in the NHL scoring 2.56 goals per game, and now their top line and top power play is down a major piece of the puzzle. It’s very likely that keeping up with Edmonton’s scoring attack is a challenge to tough to overcome in this one. Back the Oilers on the road.

Oilers vs Kings prediction: Oilers ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.