Parlays

After a buzzer-beater win over Duke, North Carolina dropped its next game to Miami 75-66 on Tuesday. But the game isn’t the only thing the Tar Heels lost. On Saturday, UNC will be put to the test without its star player, Caleb Wilson. The freshman fractured his left hand in Tuesday’s matchup against the Hurricanes, and the Tar Heels announced that he is out indefinitely — something you don’t want to hear with March right around the corner. The Tar Heels enter this matchup as double-digit favorites, which is surprising given the circumstances.

Wilson’s absence leaves a major hole in both scoring and rebounding. He averaged 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, and they still have Henri Veesaar, who averages 9 rebounds per game — but they’ll need someone else to step up. Luka Bogavac and Jonathan Powell will likely see some increased playing time, but that may not be enough against this Pittsburgh defense that ranks eighth in the ACC this season by allowing 71.5 points per game. The Panthers may have the second-worst offense in their conference, averaging 70.1 points per game compared to UNC, which ranks 6th with 81.9, But remember, the Tar Heels are without their leading scorer. UNC should win this game, but as it is trying to figure things out offensively and defensively without its star player, I think Pitt should be able to keep this game within double-digits. 

Pittsburgh vs North Carolina prediction: Pittsburgh +10.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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With their 4-game winning streak on the line, the Villanova Wildcats will look to get revenge for their 76-72 loss to the Creighton Bluejays back on January 7. Villanova sits third in the Big East Conference with a 10-3 record, while Creighton is fifth at 7-7 and looking to rebound following a 72-71 loss to the DePaul Blue Demons. 

Offensively, these 2 teams are fairly similar — with Villanova averaging 77.7 points per game this season compared to Creighton’s 76.3. The biggest difference comes defensively. Villanova is holding Big East opponents to 69.1 points per game on 44.2% shooting, while Creighton is allowing 75.3 points on 45.3% shooting from the floor. Tyler Perkins appears to be finally finding his groove in the second half of the season, averaging 18 points and 7.4 rebounds per game over his last 5 for the Wildcats. Villanova has been the better team all season, and the Bluejays lack the depth and discipline in this matchup. Playing on the road isn’t an issue for Villanova this season; it is 6-2 on the road. I expect the ‘Cats to control the tempo in this matchup from start to finish, making Villanova my best bet of the day. 

Villanova vs Creighton prediction: Villanova -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Purdue Boilermakers survived in Lincoln on Tuesday in an overtime win over Nebraska, but they really tried to give the game away. Leading by as many as 22 in the second half, Purdue allowed the Cornhuskers to creep back into the game and even gave them a chance to steal it, but the Boilermakers eventually prevailed thanks to Braden Smith’s play-making, as well as the dominance on the glass of Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff. With the win, the Boilers are a half-game back of Illinois and 2.5 games back of Michigan in the Big 10 race. 

Iowa returns home after an embarrassing road loss at Maryland on Wednesday, as the Hawkeyes failed to secure a win despite forcing 14 turnovers. They allowed the Terps to connect on nearly 71% of their two-point attempts, which only highlights their defensive struggles inside the arc. Iowa is 228th in two-point defense, in the 31st percentile against the rim attacks of top-100 teams and has really struggled on the glass in conference play – which are not good qualities to have against this Purdue front court. 

These teams met once already this season, and Purdue escaped with a 7-point win. Iowa held a 9-point lead in the second half, but despite making 48% of their threes and holding Purdue to just 6 offensive rebounds, they couldn’t get the result. The Hawkeyes are excellent from the perimeter, but can we really count on them to knock down almost half of their attempts again? Moreover, considering they are 12th in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding rate allowed and in the 1st percentile nationally in defensive rebounds per game over their last 5 games, can we trust Iowa to limit TKR and Cluff on the glass? I’m not so sure.

Iowa has not stepped up in class very well this year, having yet to beat a KenPom top-30 team. They are 0-4 SU in such matchups, likely because they are too reliant on the shot creation of Bennett Stirtz to beat well-balanced teams like Purdue. It’s Boilermakers or nothing for me in this one.

Purdue vs Iowa prediction: Purdue Boilermakers -1.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -2.5. 

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