Parlays

The Boston Red Sox will look to complete their first series sweep of the season as they wrap up a three-game set against the Detroit Tigers. A big piece of the Red Sox’s recent success has been their offense, shitting .274 and averaging 5 runs per game over the last 10. Meanwhile, Detroit has dropped six of its last 10 games, batting .243 and averaging 4.3 runs per game.

Boston will send Sonny Gray to the mound who is 2-1 with a 4.30 ERA this season. For the Tigers, Jack Flaherty will be in search for his first win of the season, entering at 0-2 with a 5.90 ERA. Neither starter has had much success in recent starts, but I trust Gray more than Flaherty in this matchup. Flaherty has given up 10 runs on 10 hits in 5.2 innings pitched while Gray has allowed 6 runs on 12 hits in 6.2 innings. As a team, the Red Sox hold a 2.83 ERA in their last 10 games compared to the Tigers 4.34 ERA. With the hotter offense, and better bullpen, look for the Red Sox to pick up their first series win before heading back home to Boston. 

Red Sox vs Tigers prediction: Red Sox ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable up to -115.

The Minnesota Twins made a statement in their series opener with an 11-3 win over the Washington Nationals and will look to keep that momentum going tonight. The Twins will send Bailey Ober to the mound who is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA. For the Nationals, they’ll hand the ball to Miles Mikolas who is 0-3 with a 8.23 ERA. One of the biggest concerns for the Nationals heading into this matchup is Mikolas inability to go deep into his starts this season, and Washington has one of the league’s worst bullpen ERA (4.77). However, even though the Twins have a more reliable starter on the mound, they also have one of the league’s worst bullpen ERA, sitting at 5.26. 

Offensively, the Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game in their last 10 and hitting .247 while the Nats are averaging 3.9 runs per game and hitting .198 in that same span. Even with the Twins bullpen struggling this season, Washington’s lineup hasn’t been too much of a threat in recent games. Ober has been terrific on the mound in his last three starts, striking out 15 and giving up just three earned runs in 18.1 innings pitched. If Ober can go at least six innings for the Twins, and limit the number of innings they’ll need to use their bullpen, that’ll put Minnesota in a great position to pick up the win. The Twins should have no issues scoring a few runs against Mikolas early on, and I expect them to add a few more on late in the game against this Nationals bullpen. Look for the Twins to take care of business on Wednesday, making them my best bet of the day. 

Twins vs Nationals prediction: Twins ML (-135) at the time of publishing. Playable up to -145. 

The Cincinnati Reds are a team that has outperformed their talent level to begin this season, in my opinion. They have elite talent at shortstop and first base, and there are youthful pitchers in their rotation (and on the IL) that have very high upside. Outside of that they are a team with a weak bullpen and several holes in their lineup. Brady Singer is struggling on the mound for Cincinnati, posting a 5.57 ERA with an even worse 6.17 xERA and 5.74 FIP. Singer is failing to miss bats and he is allowing far too much hard contact. Now he gets a tough matchup against a Cubs lineup sitting 5th in wOBA with a 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Colin Rea is the preferred starter in this matchup by default. Rea has been respectable for Chicago so far this season, posting a 4.41 ERA through his first 32.2 innings of work. The right-handed veteran has a 4.41 xERA to match that ERA, but his FIP of 3.42 is nearly a full run better. Rea has been able to do 2 things very well. He is throwing strikes with his 6.3% walk rate ranking 82nd percentile. It makes sense to pitch to contact when you have the infield defenders that Rea has behind him. It also helps when you can generate an 86th percentile ground ball rate. Look for Rea to slice through this Reds lineup and lead the Cubs to a win.

Cubs vs Reds prediction: Cubs ML (-168) available at time of publishing. Playable to -175 odds.

Less than 2 weeks ago, New York had dropped back-to-back games to the Atlanta Hawks by 1 point apiece, making the Knicks the first team in NBA history to lose by 1 point in regulation in consecutive playoff games. Since that point, New York has flipped the switch and essentially been unstoppable on both ends of the floor. On offense, the Knicks racked up a combined 380 points over the final 3 games of the first round to close out the Hawks, including back-to-back performances where they won by 39 and 51 points respectively. It’s not as if Mike Brown’s defense has been slouching either, with New York holding opponents to under 100 points in 4 consecutive games since falling behind 2-1 to Atlanta. That momentum continued into a 137-98 beatdown of the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 1 on Monday, and the Knicks certainly look like the best team in the Eastern Conference at the moment. However, I fully expect New York to finally encounter some resistance in Game 2, especially since it feels like the series is in the balance for Philadelphia. 

For starters, the Knicks were absolutely white hot in Game 1 to an unsustainable degree. In fact, New York shot well over 60% from the floor and over 50% from beyond the arc, to go along with a +26 edge in points in the paint and a +11 edge on the glass. It was an ideal game in all areas for the Knicks, and while there certainly seems to be a real change in this team over the last handful of games, it’s hard to expect this insanely high level of play to continue for 48 more minutes on Wednesday. Philadelphia is going to punch back and we’ve also seen the Sixers raise their level in these situations in the Nick Nurse era (look no further than against Boston in the previous round). It’s hard to imagine that Joel Embiid doesn’t have a bounce-back game on offense, and while the Knicks will likely look to punish the 76ers on the defensive end, New York should have a hard time staying in front of Tyrese Maxey in a spot where he has been brilliant over his short NBA career. The visitors should also hold the edge at the free-throw line in this game, as we saw in Game 1. With the 76ers no longer coming off a Game 7 and having to play on short rest, they should be settled in and ready to take the physicality to New York in a bounce-back situational spot on Wednesday. 

76ers vs Knicks Game 2 prediction: 76ers +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 76ers +7. 

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Anthony Edwards made a surprise return from injury in Game 1, turning all pre-series analysis upside down as nobody expected him to play the opening two games. Ant Man came off the bench and scored 18 points in 25 mins of play, hitting some important shots down the stretch to help his team pull off the upset win. Judging by how the opener went, we could be in for a tight series here as neither side led by more than 9 points. Pressure is now off Minnesota as we head into Game 2, they already got what they came for in San Antonio, splitting the first two games at worst. Apart from Edwards returning back to the starting line-up, I do not anticipate them making any more adjustments for Wednesday’s game.

It feels odd to say a player notching a triple-double left a lot to be desired, but that’s exactly how I feel about Victor Wembanyama after Game 1. Yes, he dominated defensively grabbing 15 rebounds and setting a new NBA postseason record with 12 blocks, but Wemby went just 5-for-17 from the field and 0-for-8 from three en route to just 11 points. For a player of his caliber that’s way too low in a game of this magnitude and he knows it. His Spurs teammates had mostly decent performances from an individual standpoint with 6 of them scoring in double-figures, but as a team they looked a step slow in reacting to certain things. Despite all the mishaps they still had a chance to win it at the buzzer, but Champagnie’s open look from three was short. The spread has now gone down considerably after that Game 1 loss, San Antonio is favored by 9 points going into Game 2.

Wemby took the bulk of the blame in the post-game presser and that’s exactly what you want to hear from your best player. This loss happened at the best possible time for San Antonio if you ask me, it’ll be a much-needed wake-up call after they cruised through the 1st Round vs Portland. If they play with a sense of urgency and desperation in Game 2, I can definitely see them winning. Covering the 9-point spread will be a challenge, but I have a lot of faith in this team. Spurs even things up in dominant fashion.

Timberwolves vs Spurs Game 2 prediction: Spurs -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres are set for Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series on Wednesday night in Buffalo. The Canadiens begin this series coming off a thrilling 7-game series against the Lightning that featured 7 one-goal games with 4 being decided in overtime. Montreal scored just 2 total goals over Games 6 and 7, but things could open up a bit more in Game 1 against Buffalo. These division rivals met 4 times during the course of the regular season, and at least 6 total goals were scored in all 4 matchups. Furthermore, the Canadiens scored at least 3 goals in 3 of those 4 contests. Coming off a grueling series with limited ice space against Tampa Bay, look for Montreal to find a better offensive groove against Buffalo.

The Buffalo power play has been a popular topic of conversation this postseason, as the Sabres went just 1-for-24 on the man advantage in the first round against the Bruins. However, I do not expect those woes to last much longer. In 2 home games against the Canadiens in the regular season, the Sabres went 3-for-8 on the power play. That should give them some confidence heading into this matchup. Furthermore, it’s not like the Canadiens’ penalty kill is dominating, as they rank 11th among 16 playoff teams with a penalty kill percentage of 82.8% in the postseason. These teams have shown they know how to score plenty of goals against one another, and while things may tighten up a bit in the postseason, they should still be able to clear the listed total of 5.5 in Wednesday’s Game 1.

Canadiens vs Sabres Game 1 best bet: Over 5.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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The Anaheim Ducks are looking to bounce back into the win column as they face the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena for Game 2 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Ducks put up a decent fight in Game 1 but managed to score only one goal. In the first round, Anaheim excelled against the Edmonton Oilers by generating numerous quality shots and capitalizing on 40% of their power plays. However, they will face a much tougher challenge this round. Still, they demonstrated in the first game that they can compete as a team.

On paper, Vegas is the stronger team, as evident in Game 1. They have depth throughout their lineup, receiving contributions from all players. Goalie Carter Hart wasn’t overly tested but made crucial saves when needed. The Golden Knights boast the best penalty kill of any team remaining in the playoffs, operating at 95%, although they can give the Ducks opportunities on the power play.

This series may result in fewer goals than anticipated, which aligns with the Golden Knights’ preferred style of play. We’re giving them the edge on home ice in Game 2 and predict they will cover the Puck Line, although we might need an empty-net goal to seal the deal.

Ducks vs Golden Knights Game 2 prediction: Golden Knights -1.5 (+155) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.