Parlays

The anatomy of an upset. We’re going to break it down. The Badgers are a team that lead with offensive first, play with pace, and love to attack from the perimeter. When it all goes well, Wiscy can put up 100 points and look unstoppable. But if the shots don’t fall? Wisconsin can be in trouble. Particularly, when the opponent plays with pace and score like the Panthers can.

If you are filling out your bracket, High Point is worth being written down to spring the annual 5 vs. 12 upset. From a betting perspective, getting the Panthers with the points is one of the better plays you will encounter perhaps in any sport, this week. We don’t even need High Point to win to cash this ticket, but they can win. That’s the whole point. Wisconsin is tagged by many to be a dark horse in the West region. Analysts love the prospect of an Arkansas-Wisconsin smokeshow in the Round 32. The problem is that horse may never get out of the gate. But because High Point has gone to March Madness two years in a row and hasn’t won a game yet in school history, it seems unfathomable for such events to unfold. That’s how brackets are broken and how winning plays are uncovered. A Panthers victory would be inconceivable to many but the set-up is there, and all we need is the Panthers to compete in a game that I believe they will win outright.

High Point vs Wisconsin prediction: High Point +10 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the more intriguing first round matchups on Thursday features the VCU Rams vs the North Carolina Tar Heels. The Rams rolled through the A-10 tournament, and they ended the season on a 6-game winning streak. The Tar Heels come into the tournament vulnerable, with star freshman Caleb Wilson out for the year. If you are shopping for an upset for your bracket, this would be a good spot to look. For bettors, there is still value here too, and I look for VCU to keep this game close at +2.5.

The Heels obviously still have lots of talent without Wilson, no doubt about that. Seth Trimble especially will step up and carry the load. But there is more here. In particular, this is a dangerous matchup for Carolina. VCU is an elite 3-point shooting team, and when they aren’t shooting threes, they are good at getting themselves to the foul line. While UNC does not foul a lot, they do struggle to defend the arc. If there is one tried and true formula for a first round upset, that is it—the ability for underdogs to make 3s. It is also worth noting that VCU beat Virginia Tech by 18 and nearly upended NC State, so they can go toe to toe with ACC squads. And those games were in November; the Rams have only improved since then. I like VCU in this spot.

VCU vs North Carolina prediction: VCU +2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Idaho Vandals and the Houston Cougars will face off on Thursday for round one of the NCAA Tournament. This game is a late tip off in Oklahoma City following the Saint Mary’s and Texas A&M game. I do not expect this one to be a very close one as Houston should be able to handle Idaho with not many issues. The Vandals finished the regular season just 17-14 but went on a four-game winning streak to win the Big Sky Conference Tournament. The Big Sky has not fared well in the big dance as they are just 3-10-1 against the spread since 2010. I expect Houston to add to that bad record and cover the spread here.

Houston -23.5 is my best bet of the game because I do not see Idaho having any success against Houston’s high-level defense. The Cougars have an elite defense every year under Kelvin Sampson, and this year is no different. According to KenPom, Houston’s defense is ranked #5 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, #17 in effective field goal percentage and #10 in two-point percentage. The Vandals offense is ranked just #176 in adjusted offensive efficiency, so I expect them to struggle to score. They shoot a bunch of threes but only shoot 34.5 percentage from beyond the arc and will likely not be able to score much inside here. Take Houston to cover.

Idaho vs Houston prediction: Houston -23.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -25.