Parlays
Houston Texans +3.5 alternate spread over Buffalo Bills (+122)
I simply can’t bet against the Texans’ defense. Playing at home helps, as well. All things considered, I think Houston can make this game low scoring to the extent that it should be able to stay within a field goal – if not even win it outright. The Texans are #1 in the league by a country mile in total defense, holding opponents to 258.1 yards per game. They are also #1 in scoring (16.3 points per game allowed), #3 in passing (171.0 yards), #3 in rushing (87.1 yards) and #5 in turnovers forced (16).
Davis Mills will likely be back under center for Houston with CJ Stroud in concussion protocol, but Mills is a capable backup who has a lot of experience. Meanwhile, Buffalo has lost 2 of their last 3 road games, including by 10 points against Atlanta and by 17 points against Miami. And those 2 teams aren’t even good!
Woody Marks over 63.5 rushing yards (-114)
There is no denying that the Texans have struggled on the ground this season, but even they can find success against this Bills outfit. Buffalo is atrocious against the run, giving up the 2nd-most rushing yards per contest at 153.0. Its 5.4 yards per carry allowed are also the 2nd-most league-wide. Marks may not be anything special, but the rookie out of USC is capable of taking advantage. He has churned out 62 yards or more in 3 of the last 7 outings and in 2 of the last 4. Marks should get plenty of attempts as well, given that it is in Houston’s best interest to keep the ball on the ground, move the clock and relegate Allen to the sideline for as long as possible.
Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (-115)
I have no qualms about throwing this leg into our Bills vs Texans SGP despite picking Houston to keep it within a field goal. Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team needs to contain everyone else in order to be competitive. We – the Texans included – can accept Allen finding the end zone as a given. He has scored a ridiculous 7 touchdowns in the last 4 contests, including 3 in this past Sunday’s victory over Tampa Bay. Obviously, Houston’s defense is amazing, but that could actually work in Allen’s favor when it pertains to this particular bet. He will probably have to do a lot of improvising when his first reads are taken away. Count on him doing a lot of stuff by himself – that includes taking one in for a score.
The Florida State Seminoles hit the road for Raleigh on Friday night, and this battle against NC State will come with bowl eligibility for the winner. Both teams enter with 5 victories, 1 short of bowl eligibility. FSU has had its issues on the road this season. It all started with a stunning 46-38 loss in overtime at Virginia, and the season has spiraled from that point. It is 0-3 SU and ATS in 3 game away from home, including a 20-13 loss at Stanford on October 18 as a 17.5-point favorite and a 24-10 loss at Clemson in the most recent trip on November 8. That’s just 11.5 PPG scored on offense, with 22.0 PPG allowed on defense.
For NC State, it was humbled 41-7 at Miami last Saturday, a disappointing result after 2 weeks off following a massive 48-36 win in Raleigh against previously unbeaten Georgia Tech on November 1 as a 5.5-point underdog. Still, NC State is just 1-3 SU and ATS in the past 4 games, but at home it is 4-1 SU, and 3-1 ATS in the past 4. Florida State hasn’t shown an ability to win on the road, so let’s keep rolling with the opponent in those spots, especially since the Wolfpack are catching points at home. NC State is 5-2 ATS in the past 7 in the series, too, winning each of the past 3 meetings in Raleigh since November 3, 2018.
Florida State vs NC State prediction: NC State Wolfpack +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.
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San Diego State is currently in the driver seat in the Mountain West, but the second spot in the conference title game is still up for grabs. Two of the teams competing for that spot are the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, both of whom sit at 4-2 in conference play ahead of their matchup on Friday night. Due to the lack of tiebreakers, both of these teams have to win out to have a chance to play for a conference title – assuming the Aztecs also win out.
The Rainbow Warriors have greatly exceeded expectations this season, especially in conference play. Each of their 4 conference wins came when they were in the underdog role, with a 5th cover in the 2-point loss to Fresno back in September. UNLV, on the other hand, has been all over the place. The Rebels are in the midst of a 2-game winning streak after their 2-game losing streak, but they’ve failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 overall. Three of those 4 non-covers were in the favorite role. When you peel back the curtain even further, you will notice that UNLV hasn’t beaten anyone of note. The Rebels lost to the 2 best conference opponents they played and haven’t beaten a single Mountain West team with a winning record. In fact, they haven’t beaten any team with a winning record this year (at the time of writing, ahead of midweek MACtion).
UNLV’s struggles against good competition stem from its very poor defense. It ranks 114th in scoring, 130th in total defense, and 132nd in yards per play, and opponents typically find the end zone against this unit once crossing into the red zone more often than not. That will likely spell trouble against the 3rd-most efficient red zone offense in the country in Hawaii.
A win over the top team in the conference on November 8 restored Hawaii’s chances in the Mountain West, so the Rainbow Warriors should be fired up for this trip to the mainland following a bye that UNLV did not share last week. With a rest and preparation advantage, as well as a defensive advantage, give me Hawaii with that ever-appealing + next to its price.
Hawaii vs UNLV prediction: Hawaii +3 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.
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The 2025 Baha Mar Championship kicks off the holiday MTE schedule on Thursday when the Purdue Boilermakers meet the Memphis Tigers on the hardwood at 6:00pm ET in the Bahamas. The beginning of the season couldn’t be any more different for these teams, as Purdue returned a vast majority of its squad and has started the year hot with a 4-0 record – including a win at Alabama last week. Meanwhile, Memphis doesn’t return anyone from last year. Because of that, the Tigers haven’t been nearly as good out of the gate as they were last year when they started 6-0 before a loss to Auburn in Maui. Through 3 games, Memphis is 1-2 with losses at Ole Miss and at home against UNLV – a game in which the Tigers trailed by as many as 21 points.
I’m expecting the Boilermakers to be a runaway freight train in this game. While Memphis has some solid pieces, this group is still working on its chemistry and cohesion – which isn’t ideal against arguably the most cohesive squad in the country. Not only that, but Purdue sits in the 96th percentile in offensive rating per CBB Analytics and figures to score at will against a Memphis defense that surrendered at least 1.15 points per possession in its last 2 games. For what it’s worth, CBB Analytics has Memphis’ defensive rating in the 35th percentile, and the Tigers rank 271st in effective field goal percentage allowed. They also foul at one of the highest rates in the country and lack depth on the interior to oppose Purdue’s Oscar Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn.
Sure, Memphis could show up to the Bahamas and shoot lights out against a Purdue defense that yields a ton of threes, but I don’t trust this version of the Memphis Tigers to push Purdue for 40 minutes. Look for the Boilers to win convincingly here.
Purdue vs Memphis prediction: Purdue Boilermakers -14.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -16.
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Western Michigan will travel to Columbus Ohio on Thursday night to take on undefeated Ohio State. The Broncos are coming off a loss against South Dakota in which they shot an impressive 53.3% from the field, but their turnovers were costly. Western Michigan turned the ball over 13 times, which South Dakota capitalized on, scoring 21 points. So far this season, Western Michigan averages 16.4 turnovers per game, and that’s something Ohio State will take note of and will look to apply pressure, hoping they can force the Broncos to turn it over.
Ohio State is coming off a narrow 64-63 win over Notre Dame and will look to improve its shooting after finishing just 38% from the field in that game. The Buckeyes have 4 players scoring in double figures this year, led by senior Bruce Thornton, who averages 25.3 points, 3.5 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game. Western Michigan can score as well, averaging 80 points per game, and a big part of its offense is Jayden Brewer, who averages 17.2 points and 9 rebounds per game. However, the Buckeyes are averaging 87.8 points per game, and they should be able to capitalize against this Broncos defense, which allows 80.2 points per game. Ohio State has the better offense and defense in this matchup, and I expect them to overpower the Broncos and move to 5-0 on the season.
Western Michigan vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -27.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Texas Tech Red Raiders will travel to Nassau, Bahamas for a non-conference showdown. This matchup is a part of the Baha Mar Championship tournament that includes these two teams as well as Purdue and Memphis. Purdue and Memphis will tip off the tournament at 6:00pm EST before these teams battle it out at 8:30pm EST. The spread is current set at Texas Tech -8.5, but my best bet of the game is the under.
The total is currently 159 points, and I believe that is too high. The total is too high for my liking because I think Texas Tech will try to slow this game down. According to KenPom, their adjusted tempo is ranked just #306 nationally and they were unable to score more than 80 points in their last two games. In their only other game against a power conference opponent this season, Texas Tech shot just 27 percentage from three and shot just 4 free throws all game.
Texas Tech could struggle from beyond the arc again his one as Wake Forest’s defense has been great at guarding the three-point line. Wake Forest’s defense is ranked #12 nationally in three-point percentage, so I do not expect the Red Raiders to have much success from deep. Wake Forest is not a great three-point shooting team either, ranked just #183 in three-point percentage and #189 in effective field goal percentage. The Demon Deacons shot just 35 percentage from the field and 29 percentage from deep in their non-conference game against Michigan and could struggle shooting the ball again here. The under is the play here at 159.
Texas Tech vs Wake Forest prediction: Under 159 available at time of publishing. Playable down to 158.
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The Clippers are in midst of a 7-game road trip, and so far they’ve only beaten the Mavericks in double OT. In their other two games, they lost by 3 and 2 points. James Harden has been doing his best to keep them afloat with all the injuries, but I have a hard time believing it’s a good strategy to rely on a 36-year old Harden to carry a team at this stage of his career. LA has covered only once in 9 games, as they just lost Derrick Jones Jr. to a knee injury – joining Kawhi Leonard and Bradley Beal on the sidelines.
The Magic surprised a lot of people with their 121-113 win over Golden State the other day. Desmond Bane had one of his better games as a member of this team with 23 points, but it was a balanced attack with all 5 starters scoring in double-figures and Anthony Black chipping in 21 off the pine. A similar performance will be required here, as the team continues life without Paolo Banchero – who is recovering from a groin issue. At 5-3 SU the Magic are a reliable bet when playing at home, plus they’ve covered in 5 of 6 meetings with Western Conference opponents.
If we go player-for-player, I’d argue the Clippers’ only advantage is at the center position here. With just 1 win in 8 road games, it’s hard to consider the away team here. I’ll go with the Magic to cover.
Clippers vs Magic Predictions: Orlando Magic -5.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Two teams playing great basketball will go against one another Thursday night when the Atlanta Hawks travel to take on the San Antonio Spurs. The Hawks have a record of 9-6 with most of those wins coming on the road. They have won 7 of 9 road games this season, but just saw their 5-game winning streak come to an end on Tuesday with a 120-112 loss to the Detroit Pistons. Jalen Johnson scored 25 points while the team has continued to play in the absence of Trae Young.
The Spurs have a record of 10-4, but unlike the Hawks, most of their wins have come on their home floor. The Spurs have also won 7 of their 9 home games this season. They are currently on a 2-game winning streak, with their last win coming against the Memphis Grizzlies 111-101. De’Aaron Fox led the team in scoring with 26 points. Fox has averaged 22.7 points and 6.2 assists in the 6 games he has played since returning from injury. The Spurs won 4 of those 6 games.
The stars will be missing in this game. Young will continue to miss time with a knee injury, and Victor Wembanyama will miss time for the Spurs with a calf injury. Stephon Castle for the Spurs and Kristaps Porzingis for the Hawks will also sit out this game with injury. Each team will need to rely on their depth and role players to find a way to win tonight.
I believe the absence of Wembanyama will play the biggest factor in this matchup. The Spurs’ success on offense and defense relies heavily on Wembanyama. With multiple other starters out, the Spurs will need to rely on Fox to carry them through this stretch. Fox is a great player, but he is still finding his footing after returning from injury and is still somewhat new on this roster. Also missing tonight for the Spurs will be Derek Harper and Jordan McLaughlin, meaning when Fox is not on the floor, we may see the Spurs run a lineup without a true point guard. Hawks’ forward Jalen Johnson continues to show he is a rising star, averaging 22 points and 6.5 assists. I like for Johnson and the Hawks to get it done on the road tonight in San Antonio.
Hawks vs Spurs prediction: Atlanta Hawks -105 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Kings enter this matchup in rough form, particularly on the road, where they’ve posted a troubling 1–7 record and continue to struggle defensively in away environments. Their inconsistency shows up in key areas — poor late game execution, limited rim protection, and stretches of stagnant offense when they’re outside Sacramento. Even though they have capable scorers, their road metrics suggest significant vulnerability, especially against teams with physical frontcourts and disciplined defensive structure.
Memphis, while not flawless, holds firmer footing at home with a 3–5 record and an impressive 4–1 mark as a favorite, showing they typically take care of business when expected to. Their defensive activity, rebounding edge, and more stable half court offense give them an advantage in a matchup between two struggling Western Conference teams. Given Sacramento’s continued road issues and Memphis’ relative reliability in these spots, the lean is toward the home team controlling the game’s key stretches.
Kings vs Grizzlies Prediction: Grizzlies -2 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5
The New York Islanders and Detroit Red Wings are set to meet for the 2nd time this season on Thursday night. New York won the first meeting of the season by a score of 7-2 on Long Island on October 23. After allowing 7 goals in that contest, look for Detroit to put forth a more spirited defensive effort this time around. Detroit has allowed far too many easy scoring chances to their opponents this season, but they’ve allowed just 3 total goals over their last 2 games, which is a step in the right direction. This is the final game of New York’s current 7-game road trip, so fatigue could be a factor for Patrick Roy’s squad.
Offensively, the Red Wings have hit a bit of a rough patch in the month of November. Detroit is scoring 2.6 goals per game through 8 games this month, which is a drop down from the 3.4 goals per game they scored in October. After a slow start, New York goaltender Ilya Sorokin has found a groove between the pipes. The Russian netminder has seen his save percentage increase from .877 in October to a strong .927 in November. Furthermore, his goals-against average has dropped from 3.40 to 2.15. Look to the under in this one.
Islanders vs Red Wings prediction: Under 6 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.
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Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals take on Cole Caufield and the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday in the NHL. These teams have had mixed starts, as the young Canadiens have been threatening for the Eastern Conference lead, while last year’s 111-point team is at the bottom of its division. How will this one play out? Here is our Capitals vs. Canadiens prediction.
The Capitals are coming off an explosive 7-4 win over a star-studded, but struggling Edmonton Oilers team, and I see them riding this momentum. They have been very average with a 10-8-2 record, and being at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division is not okay. They know there is lots of work to do, and taking down an injury riddled Canadiens team (Alex Newhook, Patrik Laine, Kirby Dach, and Kaiden Guhle) is a good start. Montreal is really struggling right now with a record of 0-3-1 in their last 4 games, being outscored 19-6. Washington has looked good at 2-0-1 in their last three, and I expect that to improve here. For our Capitals vs. Canadiens prediction, take the Washington Capitals on the money line.
Capitals vs Canadiens prediction: Washington Capitals ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.
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The Tampa Bay Lightning will host the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday night. The Oilers will be on the second half of a back-to-back, as they were in Washington taking on the Capitals Wednesday night. The Lightning, sitting idle on Wednesday, are playing some good hockey as of late – 7-3-0 in their last 10 games. Netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy has played a big part in this, as he also has been much better of late. He is 4-1 in his last 5 starts, and has a 2.64 GAA and .906 SVP on the season. He will go up up against Calvin Pickard, who has a brutal 4.18 GAA and .830 SVP. The top end talent on the Lightning has finally been playing to their standards and carrying this team. Jake Guentzel has 6 goals in his last 5 games and Nikita Kucherov has 4 points in his last 3 games. Look for them to play a part in this game.
It is the same old story for the Oilers, they lack offensive depth, they are poor defensively and their goaltending is among the worst in the NHL. If the Lightning can shut down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, or even limit them to a few scoring chances, they should be successful in this game. Give me the Lightning on the money line.
Oilers vs. Lightning prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning ML (-155) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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