Parlays

This is all about optics more than anything else. Loyola-Chicago comes in with an ugly profile: 6-18 straight up on the season, 7–17 against the spread and just 1-5 on the road. This program is a long way removed from the national darling that made deep March runs in years past. At this point, the Loyola‑Chicago Ramblers are a public sell almost by default, and that perception matters. Because of it, they’re consistently catching inflated numbers, especially when lined against a team that looks far more respectable on paper.

That’s where Davidson fits the bill. The Davidson Wildcats are 13-9 (11-10 ATS), and a serviceable 7-6 straight up at home. The optics clearly favor the Wildcats, and bettors remember the January meeting in which Davidson went into Chicago and won by 15. Seeing Davidson lined at a smaller price here, now at home, is naturally going to draw interest — but that’s the trap. Davidson averages just 72 points per game and can struggle to generate consistent offense. Asking this team to win by margin again—even at home—is a big ask. That’s precisely why the number is shorter than the January result might suggest it should be. With Davidson likely overvalued due to surface-level appeal, this shapes up as a classic overlay. Take advantage of it.

Loyola-Chicago vs Davidson prediction: Loyola-Chicago Ramblers +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Dayton Flyers were able to snap their 4-game losing streak with a home win over St. Bonaventure on Tuesday, but it didn’t come without drama. Dayton trailed by 3 with less than 3 minutes to play, and they ended up winning by just 2 thanks to Jordan Derkack’s free throws with 2 seconds left and an ensuing missed three from St. Bonaventure. Things won’t get easier for them on Friday when they travel to VCU to play the Rams, winners of 6 straight. VCU’s most recent win came at Fordham on Tuesday without Nyk Lewis, as the Rams led by as many as 16 before slowing bleeding the lead away to ultimately win by just 4. Lewis should be good to go for this matchup against Dayton, as it was reported that he was held out on Tuesday as a precaution. 

At first glance, this line is jarring considering Dayton’s level of success in recent years, but the Flyers aren’t playing great basketball right now on either end of the floor. They are 340th in offensive momentum and 335th in defensive momentum according to Haslametrics, while ranking 340th away from home. Furthermore, they have underperformed offensive expectations in 9 of their last 11 games and in 4 of their last 5 on the defensive end. As a result, Dayton has failed to cover in 5 straight and 8 of their last 11.

I need to see more from the Flyers to back them, even as an underdog – a role in which they’ve been a mediocre 2-3 ATS this season, including 0-2 SU and ATS in their last 2. This VCU offense is ferocious in its rim attacks, kick-outs and shots off the dribble, and Dayton has left a bit to be desired in those areas defensively against top-100 opponents. It’s going to be difficult for Dayton to match VCU’s offensive output at the Siegel Center considering the Flyers are 10th in the A-10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, 12th in turnover rate and dead last in offensive rebounding rate. The only area in which Dayton has succeeded offensively in conference play is the free throw line, but VCU has been disciplined defensively – sending conference opponents to the line less than 32% of the time. Don’t be surprised to see a double-digit victory for VCU on Friday.

Dayton vs VCU prediction: VCU Rams -7.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.5. 

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The headliner on Friday night is the UConn Huskies vs the St. John’s Red Storm, live from Madison Square Garden. This matchup not only features the best teams in the Big East, but it is also the only game with ranked opponents on Friday — and on a slate of fewer than 10 games. In short, every NCAAB bettor in the country will have action on this game — and as of Friday morning, the overwhelming majority of that action is on the Huskies. This is a classic spot to side with Vegas, because Vegas tends to win most of the time in these kinds of situations. Give me St. John’s +2.5.

Both teams come into the game hot, riding winning streaks and clearly separating from the rest of a relatively weak Big East. What is the path for St. John’s to beat a team like UConn that is elite on both offense and defense? Here are the keys. First, pace of play. The Johnnies prefer to play fast, and they will need to speed up the Huskies and play in transition. UConn prefers a deliberate, even slow pace, making you guard while it has the ball and then grinding on you when you have it. St. John’s needs to get downhill and attack.

Second, St. John’s is predicated on elite defense and forcing turnovers. UConn is vulnerable there, ranking outside the top 100 in turnover rate. Third, St. John’s also forces its way to the foul line and UConn plays a physical style of play that doesn’t mind sending opponents to the line (the Huskies rate near the bottom of the nation in free-throw rate allowed). Head coach Dan Hurley is likely to draw a technical tonight fussing about the foul count. The Huskies certainly have plenty of advantages in other places, but when I can see a clear path for the underdog to compete, and when the betting handle is this lopsided in one direction, I want to go the other way. Let’s see if the Johnnies can hand UConn its first conference loss.

UConn vs St. John’s prediction: St. John’s +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Consistency has eluded the Miami Heat so far in 2026, as they’ve connected back-to-back wins on only one occasion so far. They also failed to land Giannis Antetokounmpo before the trade deadline, but despite all of this, they remain ambitious for the remainder of this season. Friday sees them take on the Boston Celtics, a matchup in which Erik Spoelstra and his men have largely struggled over the years — winning just once in 9 meetings. After seeing them connect on just 8 threes in their last game, which they lost against Atlanta, I’m having my doubts that the Heat can get a result here. Their optimism will be based on the fact that they’ve won 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

Boston has a 4-game win streak running going into this game, following a masterful performance in Houston, where they beat the Rockets by 21 points. Jaylen Brown isn’t getting any love in the MVP race, which is surprising, as he’s played an exceptional season leading his Celtics to a 33-18 record — good for 3rd in the East. In the win over the Rockets, the Cs knocked down 19 threes, and Friday’s game against Miami will likely depend on how well they shoot and defend the deep ball. Over the past 3 games Celtics opponents have shot just 31.3% from downtown. If they can limit Miami in this area, there’s a good chance they go up 3-0 in the regular season series.

Miami won’t go away without a fight here. However, Boston’s defense has left a really good impression on me over the past 4 games, as 3 opponents were held under the 100-point mark. Miami will look to run here, but I still have full confidence in the Celtics’ ability to knock down a ton of threes. Go with the home team.

Heat vs Celtics Predictions: Boston Celtics -7 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Indiana Pacers enter this matchup at 13-38, struggling mightily on the road with a 3-20 away record while averaging just 110.9 points per game. Offensively, Indiana leans heavily on Pascal Siakam (23.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.0 APG) and Andrew Nembhard (17.3 PPG, 7.5 APG), but the continued absence of Tyrese Haliburton has limited their shot creation and spacing. Defensively, the Pacers allow 118.7 PPG, often forcing them into uphill battles when their offense stalls. Recent losses to Utah and Houston underscored those issues, as Indiana struggled to sustain scoring runs or close out competitive stretches.

Milwaukee comes in at 20-29, also dealing with offensive inefficiency while averaging 112.1 PPG. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains sidelined with a calf strain, though reports indicate he will stay with the team through the deadline, leaving the Bucks to rely on role players like Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins in the interim. Defensively, Milwaukee allows 116.1 PPG, but their home court familiarity has helped slow games down. The most telling data point came in their December meeting, a 111-94 Milwaukee win that totaled just 205 points, well below typical scoring expectations. With both teams lacking consistent half court offense and neither pushing tempo aggressively, this matchup profiles as another grind it out game.

Pacers vs Bucks Prediction: Under 222.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 221.5

The Memphis Grizzlies enter this matchup at 19-29, coming off a momentum boosting 129-125 win over Sacramento that snapped a six game losing streak. In that victory, Ty Jerome poured in 28 points on 10/14 shooting, while Ja Morant controlled the offense and facilitated efficiently. Memphis averages solid ball movement with roughly 29 assists per game, shoots 34.9% from three, and makes about 13.4 threes per contest. They’ve also had success against Portland this season, earning a 119-96 win in December with multiple players scoring in double figures. While the Grizzlies remain inconsistent defensively, their ability to share the ball and generate clean half court looks keeps them competitive.

Portland checks in at 23-28, returning home after a rough stretch that has seen them lose six straight games, but they get a boost with Scoot Henderson returning from a hamstring injury. The Blazers have been rolling out inconsistent lineups the past week or so, however Deni Avdija should be returning. They continue to generate offense at home, averaging 14.1 made three pointers per game in Portland. Defensive lapses and turnovers have hurt them during the skid, but home court advantage provides a stabilizing presence. With Memphis prone to defensive breakdowns and Portland desperate to halt its slide, the Blazers are positioned to create separation, especially if their perimeter shooting shows up early.

Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers Prediction: Trail Blazers -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

The Pistons pretty much punted Thursday’s game against Washington. They fell behind early and never made a serious push to get back in it. Just 2 players logged more than 30 minutes and only Cade Cunningham played for more than 33 minutes. Detroit should most be overly fatigued despite playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation. The home team will surely be playing inspired basketball, too, as it tries to get back on track following the stinker against the Wizards. Moreover, the Pistons are 6-1 SU in the second legs of back-to-backs this season. Finally, the Knicks are a disappointing 11-12 on the road this season compared to 21-6 at home. Give me Detroit to win.

One, the Pelicans really aren’t that bad. Two, they have no reason to tank since their first-round draft pick is controlled by the Hawks. Yes, New Orleans’ 13-40 record is horrendous. But consider this: the Pels have not lost by more than 10 points since January. That’s almost a month, folks. It’s also a span of 14 games. They have been competitive against plenty of tough opponents, too, so facing Minnesota on the road should not be too daunting of a task. The Timberwolves are playing well, but they haven’t been dominant this week. A 2-point win over Toronto on Wednesday was preceded by a loss at Memphis on Monday. Julius Randle is questionable with a thumb injury and the T-Wolves will also be making an adjustment after trading Rob Dillingham to Chicago for Ayo Dosunmu.

This is a fantastic spot for Sacramento to pull off an upset against the new-look Clippers. Los Angeles made 2 significant moves at the trade deadline, most notably shipping James Harden to Cleveland in exchange for Darius Garland. It also sent Ivica Zubac to Indiana and acquired Bennedict Mathurin. Neither Garland nor Mathurin will play on Friday, so the Clippers are going to be depleted. The Kings have lost a ridiculous 10 games in a row, but their 2 most recent setbacks have come by 4 points apiece they fell at Philadelphia by just 2 points last Thursday. This team can be competitive – and it can even win outright on Friday given the Clips’ situation.