Parlays

Happy Christmas, Pickswise Nation! Santa Claus has gifted us 3 NFL games for this gracious day. Although they are lackluster affairs at best, football is still football, and we get things started with the Cowboys making a trip to Landover, Maryland to take on the Commanders. Dallas was eliminated from playoff contention after losing to the Chargers last Sunday, but Dak Prescott and company can still be expected to put on a show in this one. After all, this Dallas team knocked off last season’s Super Bowl teams in the space of 5 days — and after posting 244 passing yards and 2 touchdowns against that typically stingy LA defense last week, Prescott should be in for a big day against the Commanders. Washington is allowing the most passing yards per attempt in the NFL (8.3) and Prescott pinned 3 touchdowns on them in a 44-22 decimation last time they met.

While this matchup is at Northwest Stadium, the Commanders will likely have to start Josh Johnson in this one with Marcus Mariota dealing with a couple of injuries. Johnson could have some success given that the Cowboys actually allow the second-most passing yards per attempt in the league, but it’s hard to see him getting this offense to be fully competitive given how underwhelming it has been for most of the year. The Cowboys’ offense has remained strong all season long, and I expect them to move the chains a lot easier than the Commanders. Look for Dallas to win this one by at least a touchdown, and probably a fair bit more.

Cowboys vs Commanders best bet: Cowboys -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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The Detroit Lions will be hoping to bounce back from a brutal loss to the Steelers when they visit the NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings in Week 17 of the NFL season on Christmas Day. Detroit’s playoff aspirations are on life support following this past Sunday’s 29-24 home setback against Pittsburgh. It could not be any less complicated — the Lions have to win out and the Packers have to lose out in order to make the playoffs. I think the visitors should be able to take their first step toward staying alive with their own victory on Thursday, but asking them to cover 6 points against a decent opponent is probably too much. My Lions vs Vikings pick is for the home team against the spread.

Minnesota QB JJ McCarthy left last weekend’s victory over the Giants with a hand injury, but x-rays were negative and he is questionable for Thursday. It sounds like the Michigan product has a decent chance to play. If that’s the case, the Vikings have a good shot at being competitive. After all, the Lions just aren’t themselves this season. They are a shocking 4-6 in their last 10 contests after starting the year 4-1, so the end is near at 8-7. These 2 teams also squared off in Minnesota during the 2024 regular season, when Detroit survived 31-29. The Vikings were much better back then, but so were the Lions. Another 1-score game is likely in the cards. Of course, all bets are off if the home side has to go with Max Brosmer instead of McCarthy.

Lions vs Vikings prediction: Minnesota +6 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Judging by their Week 16 showing, the Chiefs are already done with this season. One week after Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and the Chiefs’ playoff hopes were destroyed, Andy Reid’s team didn’t show any fire. Initially, they were led by journeyman quarterback Gardner Minshew, who left the game after throwing just 8 passes in what looked like another torn ACL. In stepped 3-year bench warmer Chris Oladokun, and the results were rather predictable: Kansas City gained just 9 first downs and 133 total yards. And it’s not like they were playing against an all-world defense. Stars like Travis Kelce (1 catch for 6 yards) and Xavier Worthy (2 catches for 41 yards) had no impact on the game.

KC’s defense didn’t have the same injury problems but you wouldn’t know that based on Tennessee’s producton. One of the worst offenses in the NFL managed to post 22 first downs and nearly 400 total yards (376). It was a sad, jarring performance from a team that’s been to the Super Bowl in 3 straight seasons.

Of course, their AFC West counterparts didn’t do much better last Sunday. The Broncos have become known for their 4th-quarter comebacks, made famous in big wins over the Eagles and Giants this season, but there was no such storybook ending in this one. The Jaguars came to Denver with a great game plan and executed it perfectly. It was a startling sight, particularly in how they handled Denver’s defense. Jacksonville went 8-15 on 3rd-down conversions and piled up 22 first downs in Week 16, going up 31-17 entering the 4th quarter after taking advantage of some bad Broncos’ turnovers. The Jags’ defense deserves credit, too. They rushed Bo Nix and forced him into 2 errant mistakes (1 interception, 1 fumble) that shifted the game’s energy, and they kept the Broncos to just 5-14 on 3rd down. They also prevented Nix’s typical late-game heroics.

Last Sunday wasn’t the Broncos’ squad we’re used to seeing on either side of the ball, but Week 17 presents a great opportunity for redemption. The Chiefs have no one else to turn to at quarterback, which means it’s likely Oladokun will get another start. Normally, we’d express some caution here since it’s still a divisional rivalry and Denver’s on the road, but this is an outlier. The Broncos are still competing for the #1 seed and the top spot in their division. On a short week and with nothing to play for, we don’t feel good about Kansas City’s chances.

Broncos vs Chiefs prediction: Broncos -12.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5.

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Tuesday’s bowl slate takes us to Boca Raton, Florida for the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl, featuring the Toledo Rockets and the Louisville Cardinals. Toledo finished 4^th in the MAC, but the Rockets closed the regular season on a 4-game winning streak to get themselves to Florida for bowl season. Louisville briefly flirted with the top of the ACC standings before losing its final 3 conference games. They managed to blank in-state rival Kentucky, 41-0, to close on a strong note. Louisville is the more talented team here, so as long as this line stays under a touchdown, I think that is the right play. Give me Louisville -6.5.

In terms of opt-outs and roster changes to be aware of, Louisville is likely to be missing a couple of defenders, and we aren’t sure who will dress for them at running back because of injuries. Quarterback Miller Moss flirted with opting out, but he appears ready to go after all. Louisville is decently stable as far as bowl rosters go. Toledo lost their coach, who took the job at UConn. That hasn’t brought as many transfers and opt-outs as you would expect, but the coaching change alone is significant. The bottom line here is that whenever Toledo has stepped outside the MAC this season (Wash St, Kentucky), they have struggled, and they have especially been unable to run the ball against bigger defenders. Louisville is better (and stronger) than both those opponents. I think the Rockets will struggle to generate offense here. I’ll take the Cardinals, as long as it is under a touchdown.

Toledo vs Louisville prediction: Louisville Cardinals -6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Both of these teams are coming into this game following disappointing ends to their respective regular seasons, but I actually think we’ll see a pretty entertaining bowl game this time around. Each side should be pretty motivated to put forth a good showing, especially since both teams have expressed interest in finishing the season strong and playing one more game with their teammates. In fact, there are hardly any opt-outs from either team in this game, and both sides are pretty healthy coming off a couple of weeks away from the rigors of conference play. Instead of questioning the motivation of each team, we have a script that sets up nicely for an over on Tuesday.

The biggest question mark in this game centers around Southern Miss, as former head coach Charles Huff has moved on to be the new head coach at Memphis. However, offensive coordinator Blake Anderson is assuming head coaching duties and he’ll have the backing of his staff and starting quarterback Braylon Braxton in this one. Southern Miss should have no trouble moving the ball on the Western Kentucky rush defense. Conversely, you can generate plenty of success on Southern Miss’ defense, a unit that is 111th in points per quality drive allowed. All signs point to this one being a shootout, so let’s bank on a higher-scoring contest in a matchup that should feature a lot of tempo and plenty of scoring opportunities.

WKU vs Southern Miss prediction: Over 58.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 59.5.

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Ohio has quietly become an afterthought. Once the Bobcats slipped out of the MAC title picture, the market stopped paying attention. UNLV, meanwhile, continues to receive respect by default following a 10-win season and a Mountain West title game appearance. But reputation and results are not the same thing, and this matchup exposes that gap. UNLV has been flawed all season. The Rebels are explosive offensively, averaging 35 points per game, but they remain one of the weakest defensive units among bowl-caliber teams — surrendering nearly 29 points per contest. Boise State — an offense that has struggled with consistency all year — put up 38 on UNLV just 2 weeks ago. That wasn’t an outlier; it was the norm. This is a team that has been clipped for 35 or more in five of their last 10 games.

Ohio is built differently. The Bobcats play defense, allowing just 22 points per game, and their offense is capable of scoring efficiently without needing chaos or broken coverages. This isn’t an overmatched service academy or an FCS opponent that folded late like UNLV has faced previously. Ohio is structured, disciplined and capable of playing 4 quarters. The market has pushed this number upward because of UNLV’s stature, not its reliability. That creates value on the Cats. UNLV is not a team you want to lay points with in a game like this, especially against a defense that won’t hand them easy possessions. Ohio can win this outright.

UNLV vs Ohio prediction: Ohio ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Hockey fans could be in for an entertaining matchup on Tuesday night when the Buffalo Sabres visit the Ottawa Senators. Both teams enter this matchup playing great hockey, as Buffalo has reeled off 6 straight wins while Ottawa has won 4 games in a row and 5 of its last 6. However, the edge in this one could go to the home team. The Senators are scoring 4.75 goals per game during their current winning streak, and on the season their powerplay ranks third in the league with a 29.8% conversion rate. With the way the offense is rolling right now, the Senators should give the Sabres all they can handle in this one.

The Sabres have struggled on the road so far this season, as they own a strong 11-5-2 record at home but are just 6-9-2 away. A total of 4 of Buffalo’s 6 wins during its current streak have come on the road, but this could be where fatigue sets in against a more physical team. Surprisingly enough, the Sabres have won 5 straight games in this series going back to last season. But the Senators have found another gear over the last week and have been lighting up the scoreboard. Playing on home ice, let’s back the Senators.

Sabres vs Senators prediction: Ottawa ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New Jersey Devils will be visiting the New York Islanders on Tuesday to play their final game before the holiday break. The Devils received a large boost to their lineup on Sunday as they had superstar forward Jack Hughes return to the lineup. Along with him came Timo Meier. These 2 players are key members of their offense put this team back into playoff contention. Hughes had a goal in his first game back and still inside the top 5 in team scoring despite playing half of the games. They will be going up against a divisional opponent in the Islanders, with 2 important points on the line. Luckily for the Devils, they won’t be seeing Ilya Sorokin in goal as David Rittich is projected to get the start.

The Islanders have been reeling a bit and are coming into this game riding a three-game losing streak. Things won’t get any easier going up against this rejuvenated Devils team. This is going to be a solid game, but I will be siding with the road team in this one. Give me the Devils on the money line.

Devils vs Islanders prediction: New Jersey ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Nashville Predators are travelling to Minnesota to face the Wild for the second time this season. Nashville has won three of its last four games; however, two of those victories were achieved at home against weaker offensive teams. With only five wins on the road this year, they continue to struggle as a low-scoring hockey team. This recent success appears temporary and unlikely to last.

The Wild’s winning streak was interrupted by the Avalanche, but the team remains strong. The addition of Quinn Hughes has not only bolstered their defence but also enhanced their already powerful offence. This team has very few weaknesses, and even if you manage to contain their offence somewhat, their goaltending has been exceptional. Filip Gustavsson is expected to start, and his overall performance is well above average. The Wild have an excellent home record and should be able to secure a win in regulation.

Predators vs Wild Prediction: Wild 3-Way ML (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

Let’s slow things down for a moment and look at everything for what it is worth. Who wouldn’t bet the Bucks here? By the struggles that Indiana has endured alone this season with a nicked-up roster and a subsequent poor record overall, doesn’t Milwaukee even without Giannis look like a piece of pie here? That’s the whole point. They aren’t.

Let’s also not stand on ceremony either. These two teams really don’t like each other. Indiana has had its woes all season long indeed but they get a rival at home before Christmas who is vulnerable. There are few opportunities that the Pacers will get like this perhaps all year and Indiana will certainly make the most of this early Christmas gift. The line looks really soft and for that reason alone the Pacers demand attention. This holds especially true with the Pacers losing by double digits yesterday at Boston and extending their skid to five games. Who wouldn’t want to fade Indiana and only have to spot a bucket while doing so? This is one of the most eerie lines on today’s menu and this is game where not only will Indiana win, but perhaps they will even dominate. Back the Pacers to feast.

Bucks vs Pacers prediction: Pacers ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Knicks just recorded their 8th win in 9 games putting 132 points past the Miami Heat at home, but the win came at a cost as they lost Jalen Brunson to an ankle injury which could force him to miss Tuesday’s game in Minnesota. That would be massive handicap for a Knicks side that relies on its leading scorer quite a lot on offense. Brunson is averaging just under 30 points per game on the road this season, it’ll take a massive effort from the bench unit to compensate for his absence here.

Luckily for Minnesota they don’t have similar issues here with their leading scorer and best player, Anthony Edwards, healthy and playing well. Ant Man is at 28.3 points per game this season, ranking eighth best in the league. Just 3 games ago he dropped 40 on the Phoenix Suns, the Timberwolves have won 9 of their last 11 games and are in solid form going into this game. As favorites they are 17-6 SU on the season — unlike many other teams in the league they like to rely on the defensive end to win games.

New York blew out the T-Wolves in the first meeting back in early November at home, but this time around it should be a different story. Brunson is out, New York’s only hope is for KAT to go crazy against his former team. Time for Edwards and co. to record a signature win against a quality opponent. I’ll take Minnesota.

Knicks vs Timberwolves prediction: Minnesota -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is about the dangers of following hype or overreacting; this is what happens when a market is shaped by narrative pricing. Denver’s name inflates its price here, especially after the Mavericks lost to the Pelicans yesterday. In fairness, we did warn you that the Dallas/New Orleans line looked very suspicious, but we digress. Nevertheless, bettors trust the Nuggets name-brand recognition and are selling hard on the Mavs. Both of these elements have collided in this spot. However, the Mavericks have demonstrated they can stay competitive with elite teams when they limit turnovers and make smart shots. Dallas has also demonstrated it can defend well and transition well without devolving into chaos. For Dallas, this is an opportunity to get right before Christmas Day and their trip to the Bay Area and foster a meaningful result against an elite opponent.

The Nuggets, by contrast, are in a huge look-ahead spot by here by default. A Christmas Day showdown looms with the Timberwolves and it’s very easy for Denver to look past the team that just clipped by the Pelicans. A Dallas team who is still playing losing basketball overall. The market is overpricing Denver because of their overall record and reputation, but lines should reflect matchup specifics, not headlines. Dallas can compete here, make no mistake. And we don’t need Dallas to win outright. We just need the Mavs make this a contested game. This spread is a clear overreaction to the Mavericks blemish yesterday and is further propped up by brand bias. Almost all of that leads to the market playing an overvalued side at an inflated number which is not a conducive strategy to cashing tickets. We would not be surprised if the Mavericks actually manage an upset but we’re happy to snag the bloated spread.

Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction: Dallas +7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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