Parlays

We head to the SEC for a Wednesday clash between the Florida Gators and the Georgia Bulldogs. These two teams faced off about a month ago, as the Gators took a 92-77 victory. At that time, Georgia was 13-2 and ranked, and the Gators were middling around at 10-5. Since then, the Gators have taken off, winning 6 of the next 7 games, while the Dawgs have been treading water at 4-4. Ultimately, that game went exactly as the predictive metrics would have expected, and I don’t see a lot of reason to expect anything different in the rematch.

Florida has heated up lately, playing like the defending champions and a team poised to take the SEC again. They have smashed their last few opponents, including a 19-pt win at A&M and a 23-pt win at home against Bama. They are elite on both ends of the court, and their only real weakness is that they don’t take or make a lot of threes. They didn’t in the first win over Georgia either, going just 6 of 25 from deep. Regardless, it just doesn’t seem to matter for the Gators. They chased Georgia off the line (as expected), and the major different was that the Gators had a 20-rebound edge on the glass, which is something the metrics would project also. Georgia thrives on the offensive glass, but that gets totally neutralized by a team like Florida, who might be the best rebounding team in the nation. Playing at home makes this game interesting for the Dawgs, but right now, I just don’t know how you would bet against the defending champs. I’ll take them to cover, even though the number is already big.

Florida vs Georgia prediction: Florida -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Following a tough loss at St. John’s on Friday, the UConn Huskies will hit the road for their 2nd consecutive game and 3rd in the last 4 when they travel to Indianapolis to play the Butler Bulldogs. Friday’s loss was just the 2nd of the season for UConn, so there’s no reason to panic if you’re a Huskies fan, especially considering the return game is scheduled for later this month at UConn for the Huskies to exact revenge. 

As for Wednesday’s opponent, Butler has dropped to 4-9 in conference play thanks to their 2nd 4-game losing streak of the conference schedule. Aside from the double-overtime loss at Providence, none of these recent games have been very competitive. Availability has been an issue for this Butler squad, as Jalen Jackson only played 6 games before injury, while another starter in Azavier Robinson will miss the rest of the season due to wrist surgery. Jamie Kaiser missed the Marquette game due to illness, and while he may be expected back on Wednesday, the Bulldogs still only have 9-10 healthy players for the foreseeable future. 

Robinson’s absence will be felt in this matchup with UConn, as he was one of the better defensive pieces in Butler’s back court. Instead, Finley Bizjack, Yame Butler and Evan Haywood will handle most of the guard duties, and none of them are anywhere near Robinson’s defensive ability. In fact, they are 3 of the bottom 4 defensive players on the team per Evan Miya. However, with Michael Ajayi and Drayton Jones healthy, the Bulldogs have some defensive upside in the front court, which should come in handy against Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed. 

These teams met once already this season, and it was UConn that came away with a 79-60 win at home, scoring 1.13 points per possession while holding Butler to 0.86. The Huskies turned the ball over 15 times and gave up 12 offensive rebounds and still managed to win by margin thanks to their defense, which rates top-5 nationally and best in the Big East – both in adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage. This defense travels too, as the Huskies have held all but 1 of their road opponents to 67 points or less. Expect more of the same from UConn on Wednesday.

UConn vs Butler prediction: Connecticut -11 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.5.

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The Volunteers have March Madness pedigree and that’s key here. Tennessee will be a popular option by namesake but this is not the best spot to back the Big Orange. This contest features two teams that win through physicality, that’s not conducive for a road favorite laying a significant tag. Tennessee and Mississippi State often win games through possession battles, where shot quality matters more than pace and pyrotechnics. Mississippi State playing at home is delighted to play that style.

Both defenses pressure the ball, protect the paint, and limit second chances. That combination mitigates offense and makes the underdog with a nice helping of points, a tasty choice. There is another aspect to this spot which speaks about the league that both these participants play in: the SEC. The SEC is a gritty conference where basketball games are more like street fights. These games also tend to tighten late when both teams are solid like the Bulldogs and Vols are here. The Volunteers don’t play winning basketball on the road either, with Tennessee sitting at 2-4 on the year. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is 7-5 in Starkville. This is not only a game where the Bulldogs can cover but spring an outright upset. We’re happy to take the points in a game where baskets will be earned one possession at a time.

Tennessee vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State +7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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With 8 wins in 10 meetings this has been a fairly one-sided affair over the years, with the Celtics dominating most games. This season the two teams are tied at 1-1 after 2 meetings, which means Wednesday’s affair concludes the regular season series. It’s important for the Celtics to get the win here, given their loss to the Knicks on Super Bowl Sunday. Going into the break on a high note is important not only for team confidence, but also for the East standings where they are holding the 3rd spot at the moment.

Meanwhile, the direction of the Bulls is well known after the moves they made before the trade deadline getting rid of Nikola Vucevic and other key players. Since then they’ve lost 5 games in a row, in 4 of them they were blown out by double digits. They have serious issues defending the three-ball, which is the main weapon of the Celtics offense which got them to this point of the season. I’m picking Boston to win this one easily.

For the upset of the night, we are in Phoenix where the team with the most successful ATS record this season in the league hosts the defending champs. Devin Booker is back for the Suns and their offense is once again clicking on all cylinders. The same cannot be said for the Thunder who are currently without their best player SGA, without whom they’ve looked vulnerable at times. We saw them struggle for chunks of their game against the Lakers on the road, despite LA also being without Luka Doncic.

The most recent meeting between the two teams was won by Phoenix a little over a month ago, which ended an 8-game win streak in head-to-head games. With health on their side and a 6-3 SU record at home in the last 9 games vs Oklahoma City, I feel like these odds are too good to pass up. I’m taking Booker and co. on the Money Line.

Losing Stephen Curry to a knee injury has been a devastating blow for the Warriors ambitions, as they find themselves now without two of their best players going into the All-Star break. Curry has been ruled out for the All-Star Game as well, which means we won’t be seeing him on Wednesday against the Spurs. That’s great news for the red hot Spurs who have won 5 games in a row, scoring 130+ points in their last 3 games.

Victor Wembanyama just led them with 40 points and 12 boards in the win over the Lakers last night. Stephon Castle has also been playing out of his mind, just the other day he recorded a 40-point triple-double, becoming only the 2nd player in NBA history along with Wilt Chamberlain to achieve that milestone. San Antonio has covered in 6 of 7 games at Chase Center, they are also 6-1 ATS in 7 games vs West coast opponents. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt even if they’re playing their 2nd game in two nights.