Parlays

After their early season troubles the Boston Celtics have slowly steadied the ship with 4 wins in 5 games. Their last two wins over Orlando and Detroit in particular were impressive, as they snapped the Pistons’ 13-game win streak with a 3-point win at home. Saturday sees them head to Minneapolis for a date with the Timberwolves, a team whose number they’ve had over the years. Boston has won 15 of 17 meetings, they’re also 7-2 SU in 9 visits to Target Center.

Minnesota comes back home from a 0-3 SU road trip where they lost to Phoenix, Sacramento and Oklahoma City. At least two of those games were winnable, it was odd to see such an experienced team fumble an 8-point lead with a minute left in Phoenix and then follow it up with a OT loss in Sacramento where they led by as many as 14 points. Minnesota’s season hasn’t been going as planned so far, they have a habit of winning games against teams with losing records, while struggling in games against teams that are over .500.

For a team that’s only 3-5 ATS in home games this season and has just 2 wins in 10 games against their opponent, I’m having a hard time believing the Timberwolves can cover here. Boston’s defense has been solid, they play the slowest pace in the league and have a pretty solid scoring backcourt. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt here and back the Celtics plus the extra points.

Boston Celtics vs Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions: Celtics +7 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Brandon Ingram to Toronto is turning out to be quite the Cinderella story, at least for now. Canada’s only team occupies 2nd place in the East with a 14-5 SU record, they are one of the biggest overachievers so far through the first quarter of the regular season. They are heavy favorites once again on Saturday, as they make the trip to Charlotte to face the Hornets. This will be the 2nd time these two teams play each other, a little over a week ago Toronto won by only 2 points at home thanks to RJ Barrett who came up big in the clutch. He won’t be available in Saturday’s game, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Raptors handle business here.

Charlotte is playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back here, so far this season they’ve split their 4 games when playing in this scenario. The two wins came against Washington and Utah, both lottery teams. The Hornets did surprise a lot of people last night with a win over the high scoring Chicago Bulls. Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller and Collin Sexton all scored over 20 points, showing that this team has the scoring potential on select nights. Tonight they go from facing the 23rd to facing the 4th best defense, scoring on these Raptors has proven to be quite difficult for the rest of the NBA.

On paper, Toronto looks like a fairly safe bet here. They have the rest advantage and are on a 9-game win streak winning by an average of 11.5 points which is only 2nd to the Oklahoma City Thunder during this stretch. They also have the superior head-to-head record with 6 wins in 7 meetings, they’ve also covered in 10 of 15 against Charlotte. I’ll take the Raptors on Saturday.

Toronto Raptors vs Charlotte Hornets Predictions: Raptors -9 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Both playing in the second night of a back-to-back, the Denver Nuggets will travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns. The Nuggets have a record of 13-5 this season and have won seven of nine games on the road. They have won three of their last five games, but are coming off a 139-136 loss against the San Antonio Spurs. The Nuggets looked good early in this game and led by double-digits at halftime, but they allowed the Spurs to score 80 2nd half points and comeback to win the game behind 17 made threes. The Suns have a record of 12-8 and have won eight of 11 games on their home court. They have won three of their last five games but are coming off a 123-119 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Suns put up a good fight against the now 19-1 Thunder. Collin Gillespie led the team in scoring with 24 points and Devin Booker added 21 points. Both teams will look to bounce back tonight. 

The Suns have been one of the more surprising teams to start the NBA seasons. With early injuries to Jalen Green and Grayson Allen, the Suns were expected to struggle early on this season. But the Suns have had players such as Dillon Brooks and Collin Gillespie step up in a big way to help the Suns stay competitive against some of the best teams in the Western Conference. The Suns have a conference record of 11-4 this season with recent wins over the Timberwolves and the Spurs. The Suns defense has kept them in most games. They rank 7th in the NBA, only giving up 113.2 points per game and holding opponents to an average of 46.5% shooting. That could be what pushes the Suns over the top against Denver. The Nuggets have been inconsistent as of late, mostly on the defensive end. The Nuggets have allowed opponents to score 127 points per game in their last three games and have struggled to defend the perimeter. They will be without key players Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon tonight, leaving them to rely on players such as Spencer Jones and Peyton Watson to step up in the starting lineup. Given that Denver has to travel into Phoenix for this back-to-back, it is not a good spot for them to turn their poor defensive play around.

Nuggets vs Suns prediction: Suns +3.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Winnipeg Jets will be visiting the Nashville Predators on Saturday evening. The Jets come into this game riding a four-game losing streak. They have slid all the way back to sixth place in the Central Division, and are 16 points behind the Colorado Avalanche for the division lead. They are without their MVP Connor Hellebuyck, but even without him they are a much better team than they have been playing like. Their forward group is deep, and led by some elite scoring talent at the top end of the lineup in Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. If they get back to their strong hard forechecking game, they should be successful in Nashville.

Despite being on a two-game winning streak. This Predators team has had its struggles this year. They are last in the Central Division, and they are one of the worst teams in the league both offensively and defensively. They rank second-last and third-last in the NHL in those categories. I expect the Jets to take advantage of a weaker opponent in the Predators and get things back on track. Give me the Jets in this one.

Jets vs. Predators prediction: Jets ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Buffalo Sabres travel to Minnesota to take on the Wild for the first time this season. The Sabres are coming off a 5-0 loss to New Jersey yesterday, and the task tonight doesn’t get any easier. They have just one win on the road this season, and can’t keep the puck out of their own net. They did fire over 40 shots on goal, but even if they did score a couple, it wouldn’t have been enough.

The Wild did something not many teams have been able to do– beat the Colorado Avalanche. They did need extra time to accomplish that, but it pushed their winning streak to 7 games. Minnesota is red hot, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Sabres come into town and walk away with two points. They don’t have the offensive depth or the goaltending to keep up, so it’s surprising to see the Wild not open as bigger favorites. We’ll take them to come away with the win in regulation. 

Sabres vs Wild Prediction: Wild 3-Way ML (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better

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The Toronto Maple Leafs continue their road trip with a stop in Pittsburgh to face the Penguins. Both teams are finishing a back-to-back so this game could be a wide-open contest. Toronto is 2-7-0 on the road this season and showing few signs of improvement. They have been dealing with numerous injuries, but that isn’t a valid excuse.

The Penguins have won three of their last five games and continue to find the net consistently. They don’t shoot a lot, but their power play has been a huge help. Both teams give up many scoring chances, and with goal scorers on each side taking on backup netminders, the goals should come early and often. We’ll take the Over and hope for as many high-danger scoring chances as possible.

Predators vs Blackhawks Prediction: Over 6 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Once 0-3, the surging Houston Texans are breathing down the necks of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South. That makes Sunday’s Week 13 showdown in Indianapolis an absolutely crucial contest. There is simply no way I’m giving more than a field goal in this kind of division-rivalry game, especially when Houston is on such a roll — 6-2 in its last 8 outings. As such, my Texans vs Colts prediction is for the visitors to cover. Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is coming off a dominant defensive performance on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, paving the way to a 23-19 upset of the Bills. Houston forced 3 turnovers (2 Josh Allen interceptions), limited Buffalo to 4.9 yards per play and sacked Allen a ridiculous 8 times for a total of 70 lost yards. 
 
Since the Texans played on Thursday, they are effectively on a mini-bye week. They are well rested and armed with a ton of momentum, whereas the Colts just suffered a tough loss at Kansas City. Prior to that result, Indianapolis needed overtime to get past a mediocre-at-best Atlanta squad in Berlin. Quarterback Daniel Jones was playing awesome football earlier this season, but he has come back down to Earth over the past 3 games. Jones going up against this ferocious Texans defense — and specifically a pass rush spearheaded by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter — spells serious trouble for the home team.

Texans vs Colts prediction: Houston Texans +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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The Los Angeles Rams (9-2) remain on fire after blowing out Tampa Bay last Sunday 34-7 as 7.5-point favorites to grab their 6th consecutive victory. The Rams own the best record in the NFC heading into Week 13, while scoring at least 34 points in 4 of the past 5 games. L.A. looks to avoid a letdown with a trip out east against the Carolina Panthers (6-6), who return home following a 20-9 loss at San Francisco.

The Panthers haven’t lost consecutive games since the first 2 weeks of the season. Carolina is 4-0 straight-up and against the spread off a defeat since losing at Arizona in Week 2. Among those victories, the Panthers shocked the Packers as 13.5-point underdogs in Week 9, and home underdog upsets of Atlanta in Week 3 and Dallas in Week 6. Carolina seeks consistency from QB Bryce Young, who has been held to less than 200 passing yards in 8 of the last 9 games. Also, the Panthers have not suffered back-to-back ATS defeats this season, as Carolina has done a nice job of being competitive off a loss.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford is the MVP front-runner, throwing for 2,830 yards, 30 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. Stafford has posted multi-touchdown passing efforts in 9 of 11 games, while the Rams have not lost away from SoFi Stadium since the Week 3 meltdown at Philadelphia. The Rams begin a stretch of 4 of the next 5 games on the road, while not leaving the state of California since October 19 when they faced the Jaguars in London. The Panthers have shown a nice knack of rebounding this season, and this can be a down spot for the Rams off a huge Sunday night blowout of the Buccaneers.

Rams vs Panthers best bet: Carolina Panthers +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10.

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The Broncos and Commanders are both coming off a bye week. They entered those bye weeks in completely different positions. Denver is riding as high as the mountains they’re from, currently on an 8-game winning streak with impressive victories over teams like the Texans, Chiefs, and Eagles. Their defense is highly rated, top-5 in most categories and permitting just 17.5 points per game (3rd). Denver’s offense, although inconsistent, does enough, and they know how to finish games. The Broncos are 2nd overall in fourth-quarter points, averaging 9.5 per game. In short, this is a team that knows how to win, which is all you need to make it deep into the playoffs. It doesn’t always equate against the spread; the Broncos are just 5-5-1 this season.

Jayden Daniels is set to miss out once again, which will mean that Marcus Mariota will be back under center for the Commanders. When the second-year quarterback has not been in the game, the squad from DC just hasn’t been very good this season. They rank a respectable 12th in offensive EPA but a very lackluster 31st on defense. Part of that is due to injuries, most of it is due to an older roster with too many randomly assembled parts. Even Dan Quinn, whose expertise is defense, hasn’t helped solve that side of the ball. 

Washington looks like it is running into a buzz saw, and frankly, the Commanders’ roster is nowhere near as talented as their opponent. They’re also even more pitiful against the spread, just 3-8 ATS this season. In every category, the visitors have the edge.

Broncos vs Commanders SNF best bet: Denver Broncos -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes may have won the national title last year, but I can promise you one thing, Buckeye Nation has not forgotten about the 13-10 home loss to Michigan – OSU’s lone blemish on an otherwise memborable season. In fact, I would argue the fanbase dwells more on that loss than it celebrates the championship at times, but that’s the beauty of college athletics – rivalries just mean that much more. 

After losing 8 in a row to the Buckeyes, the Wolverines have rattled off 4 straight wins, but I sense that streak is going to end this year. I said that last year, but this year I really mean it. I don’t even need to reference stats, and I don’t need to sell how important this game is for the Buckeyes. Being from Ohio myself, even if I am not an OSU alum, I just know. This game means more than a regular season game, and it’s not even because of what’s at stake as it pertains to the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff seeding, it’s because it’s Michigan, and it’s about revenge. Plain and simple. This game has been circled since the moment Ryan Day walked in his office after the mystifying 3-point loss last year, and I can assure you, the Buckeyes will be ready for this one – and they’re not going to let up.

If you want some stats and information, I have some for you. Michigan is extremely banged up right now. Starting RB Justice Haynes is out, as is starting safety Rod Moore. Meanwhile, starting FB Max Bredeson (a key blocker) and LB Ernest Hausmann are questions at this moment. If these guys can walk without a limp and endure pain without more than a grimace, I expect them to play – as I expect both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate to play. 

When completely healthy, this Ohio State offense is eons better than Michigan’s. The Buckeyes are top-10 in almost every offensive stat category imaginable, and the same can be said about the defensive side of the ball. On the contrary, Michigan has a middling-to-below-average offense outside of its run game – which OSU is likely to stifle. Defensively, the Wolverines just haven’t been good enough down-to-down or in scoring situations to make me think they are going to suffocate the Buckeyes like they did last year. After all, most of Michigan’s defensive stalwarts from last year’s edition of The Game are now in the NFL. 

I get it – laying double digits in a rivalry game on the road in wintry conditions isn’t ideal, but none of it matters here. Ohio State imposes its will, Michigan struggles to get going, and the Buckeyes put away the Wolverines convincingly. 

Ohio State vs Michigan prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -9.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11.

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The in-state rivalry between Vanderbilt and Tennessee doesn’t have an official name, but it’s been around since the late 1800s. The Volunteers have won the last 4 meetings, scoring at least 36 points in each game, and while Vanderbilt tried to be competitive in some of those recent meetings, the Commodores feel much more well-equipped to handle Tennessee this time around.

The ‘Dores are top-10 in scoring, total offense, yards per play, and red-zone touchdown rate on the season as a whole, and they haven’t let off the gas of late. Since Week 9, Vandy is 6th in PPA per play, including top-20 efficiency on both standard and passing downs, and top-20 points per quality drive. Moreover, the Commodores continue to be one of the best third-offenses in the country thanks to being in more manageable situations via their efficiency on first and second downs – which is a weakness of this Tennessee defense. The Vols are outside the top 80 in third-down conversion rate allowed, and they can be had in the red zone – as they rank third-to-last (134th) in opposing red-zone touchdown rate. 

I never want to try to pretend like a rivalry game doesn’t matter for one team, but I would argue this game means way more for Vanderbilt than it does Tennessee. The Vols in CFP purgatory. Meaning, they are bowl eligible, but not good enough to make the 12-team playoff with 3 losses. Meanwhile, the Commodores are 9-2, and a win over Tennessee mixed in with some help above them could lead to a Vanderbilt playoff berth – just like everyone envisioned at the beginning of the year. 

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores +3 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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Rivalry week comes to the Carolinas on Saturday night as the North Carolina State Wolfpack hosts the North Carolina Tar Heels. The inaugural season of Bill Belichick has not gone well, and taking a shot at their in-state rival will be the end of the road for the 4-7 Heels. The Wolpack have pulled off a couple of upsets, including a defeat of then-unbeaten Georgia Tech and then a win over Florida State last week. In this kind of rivalry, heaven only knows how the game will go, and it is hard to think that metrics and trends will hold. Instead, I am going to play the over, especially at a relatively low number. Give me the game total over 47.5.

I love to pick on the NC State defense; they are really bad. The Pack ranks 127 out of 134 in total defense, and prior to Florida State’s ineptitude last week, NC State had given up 41, 36, 53, and 36 in the previous 4 games. I just don’t see how they stop anyone, and I am happy to fade that defense any time. UNC has struggled on both sides of the ball though, and that has this number low. Still, this is a rivalry game, and everyone will pull out all the stops, with nothing to lose. I think this game is really likely to escalate quickly, and it is far more likely to turn into a shootout than a grind.

North Carolina vs North Carolina State Prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at the time of publication. Playable at that number.

The Arizona Wildcats are back in action on Saturday afternoon as they host the Norfolk State Spartans. Arizona is off to a great start to the season, sitting at 6-0 with wins already over UConn and UCLA. The Big 12 is loaded, and Arizona is making a case to be right in the thick of it. If you have not seen them play, do it soon; their superstar freshman Koa Peat is a sure-fire lottery pick, and this team is fun. Norfolk State, for their part, is one of the better small conference teams out there, and they have won the MEAC several years in a row now. They are punching out of their weight class here, but the 34-pt spread is something I never really want to play. Instead, I’ll take the game total over 145.5.

My favorite thing about the Spartans is that they are not afraid to play the big boys, and they schedule a couple every year. Arizona will be their first this year, and they have Baylor in a week or so. The Spartans return zero starters from last year’s tournament team, but they are still good for who they are. Still, KenPom has them sitting in the 300s, and they will struggle to keep up. Arizona should be able to score around 90 points, which they have done against all their mid-major opponents. At some point, they probably stop playing all-out on defense too, and I figure this game can get just beyond the 90-55 score we need to hit the over.

Norfolk State vs Arizona Prediction: Over 145.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Penn State looks to keep their momentum going on Saturday as they welcome a struggling Sacred Heart team to town. The Nittany Lions are off to a strong 6-1  start, and while conference play hasn’t begun, every game matters as the Big Ten is loaded with talented teams once again. Penn State’s offense has been decent to start the season, averaging 81.6 points per game, but their defense hasn’t been that great as they’re allowing their opponents to shoot 46.1% and average 70.7 points per game. 

For the Pioneers, this is a step up in play for them, and the one thing they’re also hoping to improve on in this matchup is their defense. Sacred Heart is allowing their opponents to shoot 48.3% from the floor and average 81.2 points per game. Offensively, they’re averaging 82 points per game, but that’s not going to help when they go up against a deep and talented team like Penn State. The Nittany Lions have four players averaging double digits and they should be able to find ways to the rim against this Sacred Heart defense. With players like Josh Reed and Ivan Juric, the Lions can limit second-chance opportunities for the Pioneers, which will be the difference in tonight’s matchup. Sacred Heart’s defense is a problem and Penn State should be able to take advantage of it and wear down the Pioneers with their pace of play, making the Nittany Lions my best bet of the day. 

Sacred Heart vs Penn State prediction: Penn State -15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.