Parlays

After a long and eventful regular season and the beautiful chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. One of the first games on Friday’s slate features a team that profiles as a March sleeper in the Akron Zips, and there is an opportunity for the champions of the MAC to make a splash against a Big 12 opponent.

Akron has been in this spot before, as this is the third straight year that John Groce’s side has made the Big Dance, and they should be able to learn from their previous experiences in this setting. Led by Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott in the backcourt, the Zips have veteran leaders all over the floor and an offense that has the capability to do major damage both from the perimeter and in the paint. Akron boasts one of the most efficient mid-major offenses inside of 15 feet, and the Zips can also knock down outside shots at nearly a 40% clip. Furthermore, Akron should be able to create second-chance opportunities with its prowess on the glass, while Texas Tech has taken a massive hit in the rebounding department over the last month (288th in defensive rebounding rate). On the other side, it’s also worth mentioning that while Texas Tech has played admirably without the services of JT Toppin (out for the season with a torn ACL), the Red Raiders have now become incredibly reliant on their backcourt play and outside shooters. To their credit, Grant McCasland’s team has shot the lights out from beyond the arc in recent weeks, but that just signals to me that regression is certainly coming due for a team that is top 10 in both 3-point rate and 3-point percentage over the last month. If Texas Tech has a less-than-stellar day from deep, that creates a real opportunity for Akron to keep things very close and potentially spring the upset. 

Akron vs Texas Tech prediction: Akron +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks managed to go 31-0 during the regular season, but they lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament against UMass. That actually put their NCAA Tournament chances in danger, as Miami had no Quad 1 games on its resume, while going just 3-0 in Q2 games. However, the Redhawks snuck into the Field of 68 with a First Four game in Dayton against SMU. Just an hour from campus, the Redhawks did what they do best, shoot threes, while playing up-tempo basketball, and Miami secured its first Q1 win with an 89-79 victory over the Mustangs. It was the first NCAA Tournament win for Miami since 1999, when it made the Sweet 16.

The Volunteers are a strong rebounding team, and they have a very good defense, too. But, Miami figures to put them to the test from the perimeter. In addition, the Redhawks are a top-tier rebounding team, too, ranking eighth in the nation with a plus-15.4 rebounding differential. While this is another difficult test for Miami, it can also tap into the disrespect angle, as a team which has lost just a single game on the season is an 11-seed, and it is a double-digit underdog. Take Miami catching the double-digit points, and hope that it can maintain its decent perimeter shooting against a tough SEC opponent which went to the Elite Eight last season.

Miami (OH) vs Tennessee prediction: Miami (Ohio) +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

After a long and eventful regular season and the chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. For my money, Friday’s slate has some of the most intriguing matchups of the Round of 64, and that includes a game between Northern Iowa and St. John’s from San Diego, California. The Panthers are the champions of the Missouri Valley — a conference that typically acquits itself very well in March — while St. John’s emerged as the champions of a very weak Big East conference. Both teams have played well entering this week, but which side will survive and advance to the weekend?

Northern Iowa has been in this spot before, and this program is no stranger to springing upsets in March. This year’s version of the Panthers is a veteran bunch that is led by its defense, which is ranked 24th nationally in adjusted efficiency per KenPom. While they did have some growing pains earlier in the season, Ben Jacobson’s group has won 10 of its last 13 games dating back to January 31. Not only are the Panthers playing at a top 40 level nationally over the last 6 weeks, but they’ve been able to do that while opponents are still making a higher than average number of threes against them. With that in mind, a bit of positive regression is still in order for what has been an elite perimeter defense this season (3rd in 3-point percentage allowed per BartTorvik). On offense, Northern Iowa is extremely comfortable playing at a deliberate pace, as the Panthers are ranked 364th in adjusted tempo and consistently look to grind out quality shots late in the clock. That bodes well for an underdog in a tournament setting, as teams that shorten the game and put a massive emphasis on each possession generally keep their games close against higher-seeded opponents. A year ago, a Drake team that played at a slow pace was able to knock off Missouri, so there’s certainly precedent for a Missouri Valley team to spring an upset over a power conference opponent by following a similar script.

As for the higher seed, St. John’s has been playing some of its best basketball over the last few weeks, but it’s worth mentioning that most of those performances have come against pretty poor competition in what was a lousy Big East this season. Furthermore, the Red Storm have struggled mightily on offense all season long, with Rick Pitino’s team sitting at 191st in effective field goal percentage, 187th in 2-point percentage and a whopping 214th in 3-point percentage (BartTorvik). That doesn’t bode well against an excellent Panthers defense that is fundamentally sound and won’t commit fouls to bail St. John’s out of bad possessions. If the Red Storm are not able to get out in transition and generate easy buckets, it could be a long day for this extremely inconsistent offense. All things considered, this has all the makings of a defensive struggle, so I’ll grab the points with Northern Iowa now that the Panthers are catching double digits.

Northern Iowa vs St. John’s prediction: Northern Iowa +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9

The Detroit Pistons are attempting to continue to hold on to the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference while their star, Cade Cunningham, is out with a collapsed lung. They survived their first test yesterday against the Washington Wizards, winning 117-95 behind 24 points from Jaren Duren. The Pistons will have a short amount of time to prepare for their second test tonight against the injury-riddled Golden State Warriors. Detroit got out to a fast start against Washington, winning the first quarter 35-14. It was clear the intention to win without Cunningham was to rely heavily on defense. The Pistons are a top defensive team in the league, ranking second in the league in defensive rating. They also rank in the bottom half of the league in pace and are in the top 3 in rebounding rate. Detroit will limit your possessions and won’t allow many second-chance opportunities, making it very difficult to beat if shots aren’t falling.

Golden State has struggled recently with key players — Stephen Curry included — out. The Warriors have lost 8 of their last 10 games. They have averaged 110.2 points per game, shot 43% from the field and 32% from 3 during that span. These numbers are a major drop off from their season average of 115 points per game, 46% shooting from the field and 36% from 3. Overall, the Warriors are 6-13 without Curry in their lineup and continue to fall further down the Western Conference standings. The Pistons’ defense should be able to continue to hold the Warriors’ offense at bay in this game.

Warriors vs Pistons prediction: Detroit -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

With the news of Cade Cunningham expected to miss a couple of weeks at least, the Boston Celtics might still have a chance of getting that top seed in the East. The Pistons are 4 games ahead in the standings with 13 left, so anything can still happen. The Celtics are in Memphis on Friday, facing a Grizzlies team that they blew out 131-95 back in November. The spread is at 15 points this time around, a clear indicator of which direction this game will unfold. Apart from Nikola Vucevic being out, the Celtics are pretty much at full strength. They just recorded their third win in a row, beating the Warriors by 21 points at home.

Memphis is also coming off a win, a surprising upset triumph over the Denver Nuggets that ended an 8-game slide. It is worth pointing out that the Nuggets were playing on a second night of a back-to-back in that game, which might have contributed to their downfall a bit. The Grizzlies aren’t doing themselves any favors by winning games; they would be better off tanking the rest of the way and improving their draft positioning. Their injury situation has been terrible all year long. Ty Jerome is the biggest threat to the Celtics in this game after his 21 points and 9 rebounds against the Nuggets.

This should be all Boston. The C’s are by far the more in-form team and are also playing for something, unlike their counterpart. Over the past 20 meetings, we have seen 18 wins for the Celtics and just 2 for the Grizzlies — while at FedEx Forum, the last 5 have seen the Celtics win 4. With Boston covering in 14 of the last 20 games head-to-head, I feel confident it can do so again despite the big spread. Let’s back the road team.

Celtics vs Grizzlies prediction: Boston -15 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Going on a 3-game winning streak couldn’t come at a better time for the Raptors, who are still holding on to the fifth seed in the East. However, the surging Hawks — who have won 11 in a row — are right behind them, so they need to be careful. Falling to the sixth seed would match them up with the Knicks, who dominated all 4 regular-season meetings. Friday sees the Raptors face the tall task of going up against Nikola Jokic and his Nuggets, trying to end a 5-game losing streak in head-to-head meetings. The first matchup saw a nail-biting finish, as Denver escaped Canada with a 106-103 win while playing without Jokic.

The 3-time MVP had 29 points, 14 rebounds and 9 assists, but he also turned the ball over 10 times in the Nuggets’ latest loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. It would be easy to just point the finger at Jokic and his turnovers and blame him for the loss; the reality is that the entire team just wasn’t on the level we’re accustomed to seeing from them. This game will serve as a good test if the Nuggets can bounce back against a really solid road team. Despite going 19-13 SU at home this season, Denver hasn’t been the most reliable of bets at Ball Arena — covering just 16 times in 32 games so far.

I was actually impressed by the Raptors in their last 3 games, as they beat the Suns, Pistons and Bulls by an average of 16 points. They have been really solid in road games this season, winning 20 of 33 and also covering 19 times. Their ATS record reads 6-2 in 8 meetings with Denver, I’m just not sure I can trust the Nuggets to win by more than 7 points. Give me Toronto plus the spread.

Raptors vs Nuggets prediction: Toronto +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Colorado Avalanche will face the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday night. The Avalanche currently sit in first place in the Western Conference. Even though they are in first, they have lost 4 of their last 5 games. That is shocking out of the Avalanche, as they lead the league in goals per game, goals against per game and shots on goal. The Avalanche are averaging 3.69 goals on 33.7 shots. Numbers like those are why they have won 7 of their last 10 road games.

The Blackhawks are coming off a big win over the Minnesota Wild. On the season, they rank a lowly 14th in the Western Conference and they have lost 7 of their last 10 at home. The issue for the Blackhawks is that they only average 2.61 goals per game while recording just 24.4 shots per contest. Those offensive difficulties will not be made easier today, as the Avalanche also lead the league in save percentage — with their goaltenders stopping 90.6% of shots they face. This matchup with Chicago should be just what Colorado’s offense needs to get back on track. I am taking the Avalanche on the puck line.

Avalanche vs Blackhawks prediction: Colorado -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Florida Panthers and Calgary Flames are set for a Friday night showdown at Scotiabank Saddledome . Both teams are outside of the playoff picture by a wide margin, but that doesn’t mean both sides will lack any motivation. Several trades between the teams have altered each franchise significantly in recent seasons, which brings an interesting dynamic to this matchup. The Panthers are coming off a 4-0 win over the Oilers, which may be just what they needed to get the offense back on track. Florida had been struggling to score goals lately, but after a 4-goal performance in their last outing, they now get to face one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL.

The Flames have been among the lowest-scoring teams in the league this season, but they have been better over the last month or so. Plus, their scoring prowess has been much better at home than on the road. The Flames rank dead last in the NHL, scoring a measly 2.17 goals per game on the road, but that number jumps up to 2.73 when playing on home ice. The first meeting between these teams this season resulted in 8 total goals being scored in a 5-3 win for the Flames, so don’t be surprised if we see another relatively high-scoring affair.

Panthers vs Flames prediction: Over 5.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Anaheim Ducks are looking to get back on track on Friday night when they visit the Utah Mammoth in Salt Lake City. Anaheim was one of the hottest teams in the NHL to start the season, but have been rather up-and-down since then. They enter this contest with losses in 3 of their last 4 games and 5 of their last 9. The offense has been struggling, and life on the road continues to cause problems. Anaheim is 15-17-2 on the road, compared to a strong 22-10-2 mark on home ice. The Ducks have another tough challenge on their hands as they head to Delta Center to face the Mammoth.

Utah is coming off back-to-back wins over Dallas and Las Vegas, who are 2 of the top teams in the Western Conference. Karel Vejmelka got the starting nod between the pipes on Thursday against Vegas, posting a 28-save shutout. That means we will likely see backup Vitek Vanecek in this one. Vanecek is a formidable backup who owns a strong 2.76 goals-against average in 16 games this season, and it helps that he will be playing behind a strong defensive structure. Utah makes life extremely difficult on its opponents, limiting them to just 26.0 shots on goal per game, which ranks 5th in the NHL. The Mammoth have also been strong on home ice all season, owning a record of 18-11-3 at Delta Center. Playing at home, backing the Mammoth on the money line is the play.

Ducks vs Mammoth prediction: Mammoth ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.