Parlays

The highly-anticipated Players Era tournament begins on Monday of Feast Week, and there’s no doubt college basketball fans will be treated to some incredible matchups across this tournament and throughout the week. Among Monday’s games is a Big East vs. Big 12 bout between the St. John’s Red Storm and the Iowa State Cyclones at 4:30 PM ET – a matchup KenPom considers the most thrilling of Monday’s loaded hoops slate. The Johnnies sit at 3-1 this season, but they haven’t been tested much outside of a home loss to Alabama in which they surrendered 103 total points and 1.23 points per possession. Meanwhile, Iowa State is undefeated at 4-0 with its most notable win being a very dominant win over Mississippi State on a neutral court in which the Cyclones forced 26 Bulldog turnovers. You read that right, 26. In fact, ISU opponents have committed at least 18 turnovers in every game, though the strength of schedule admittedly hasn’t been the best.

St. John’s is a team that wants to run and get to the rim as much as possible, boasting a top-10 average possession length (KenPom) while taking almost 40% of its shots within 4.5 feet of the hoop – 8% higher than Division 1 average according to CBB Analytics. Typically, this leads to an efficient, high-scoring product, but Iowa State is built in a way that can present problems for St. John’s. T.J. Otzelberger’s Cyclones are notably good at preventing shots at the rim, in addition to being excellent at preventing opponents from getting out in transition. Those have been defensive staples of the Iowa State program for years, and nothing has changed so far this season. ISU surrenders a shot at the rim almost 8% below the national average, and the Cyclones are right up there with the best of them in opposing transition frequency and efficiency. Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell are St. John’s most consistent threats near the rim – each averaging double-digit points and more than 6 rebounds per game – but they are in for a long day against Joshua Jefferson and Blake Buchanan so long as both stay out of foul trouble. It’s also worth mentioning that Iowa State guard Tamin Lipsey is one of the better perimeter defenders in the country, ranking 11th out of 2,347 eligible players in steal rate (KenPom) and top 25 in Evan Miya’s defensive rating. That spells trouble for Oziyah Sellers and the rest of the St. John’s backcourt. I’m laying it with the Cyclones. 

St. John’s vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3. 

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The controversial Player’s Era Tournament starts on Monday. If you need a refresher, this 18-team field purports to pay each team $1 million for participating, and the top 4 teams split some extra on top of that. This tournament will completely change how college basketball works, and we might as well make peace with it. Among the Day 1 matchups is Houston vs Syracuse. Both teams enter the game undefeated, but do not be fooled — these teams are not on the same level. Houston has already scored a road victory over Auburn, while the Orange have yet to leave home…or, for that matter, play anyone of consequence. There is money on the line here, and Houston can and will try to win big. Oh, and if you are wondering what the tiebreaker is in a weird semi-tournament like this, it is point differential. Give me Houston -13.5.

Houston lost the national title game by a single basket last spring. The Cougars lost some key players from that team, but they also brought back a bunch of that runner-up roster, plus they also added 3 more 5-star freshmen. This team is loaded. They are already once again the top defensive team in the country, and this year they might have a higher offensive ceiling. Syracuse should be entirely overmatched in this one. The Orange are hoping to be a tournament team this season, and their strength is a pair of guards that form a respectable backcourt tandem. They lack depth, though, and I expect those guards to have a devil of a time against the Houston defense. Again, point differential is the tiebreaker — so Houston won’t be taking the foot off the gas late, nor will it be trying to grind out a 60-58 game like it does most times. The context matters; I look for a blowout.

Houston vs Syracuse prediction: Houston -13.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Everything about this game is conducive for the Runnin’ Rebels. They are playing in their own city, although it is a “neutral-site” game. UNLV is playing in its own time zone, so this is a basketball game that it is playing on its body clock. The Terrapins are essentially playing at midnight Maryland time. As such, the advantage leans towards UNLV.

Then there are the ATS trends. The Rebels are 3-2, which is modestly rewarding. The Terps? 1-4. A team seen as a liability. UNLV has back-to-back double-digit wins at Memphis and then against St. Joe’s. Maryland meanwhile narrowly averted disaster against Mount St. Mary’s, last Wednesday. And yet, despite everything we mentioned — the Terrapins are still favored. That says a lot. We’ve seen what this team can do at their apex, knocking off Marquette on their own floor last week as a +8.5 underdog. But that’s forgotten now, the near miss against the Mountaineers wiped that slate clean while UNLV looks like the club on the rise. In case any forgot, this is a team that opened its season in Sin City with an outright loss to Tennessee-Martin as a 17-point favorite. The Rebs also lost at Montana. This is a basketball with a very low floor and a high ceiling, the number posted suggest this is a game where the Rebels come back into orbit while Maryland finds its footing. Spot the bucket.

UNLV vs Maryland prediction: Maryland -2 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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At 12-6 SU the Cavaliers have had a decent season so far, but I am anticipating a surge in the coming weeks as Darius Garland works his way into form. The point guard has missed an extended period of time in the first month of the NBA season; without him the Cavaliers have not been as dominant as they were last year. Monday sees them take on the Raptors, a team they have lost to twice already this season by double-digits. This will be the third and final meeting, so the Cavs are trying to avoid getting swept in the regular season series. Before the 2 losses that happened earlier this season, they had beaten the Raptors in 5 straight.

Toronto is in midst of a 7-game win streak right now, enjoying one of its best starts to a season in years. One could argue the Raptors had a somewhat softer schedule in the past week or so, with wins over the Nets, Wizards, Hornets and Pacers in 4 of their last 5 games. Still, the leap they have taken compared to last year is quite remarkable and the fans are hyped for Canada’s only team to make it into the postseason as one of the top 4 teams in the East. Toronto has won 5 in a row at home and has covered the spread in 9 of 12 games, as well. If there is one weakness to point out, though, it’s the lack of 3-point shooting. They attempt only the fourth fewest triples per game and make the eighth fewest per game, which is surprising considering they rank third in percentage.

On paper the Raptors might have the better record, but I still feel like the Cavaliers are the more well-rounded team. Garland’s return will be a spark for them to start putting together a run in an attempt to catch the Pistons atop the East. I doubt Donovan Mitchell will allow getting swept by the Raptors in the regular season series. I’ll take my chances with the more proven Cavaliers.

Cavaliers vs Raptors prediction: Cleveland -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Rivalries have a way of dissolving records, standings and trends, and few NBA matchups embody that truth more than Detroit vs Indiana. The history is long, heated and well-documented — this is a matchup defined by emotion as much as basketball. That context alone makes any inflated spread dangerous, and tonight the value sits squarely with the Pacers catching nearly double-digits.

Indiana has endured its struggles have made it an afterthought in the Eastern Conference. Detroit, meanwhile, has been playing some of the sharpest basketball in the league, which naturally elevates its market stature. Add in the optics — Pistons at the top of the East, Pacers hovering at the bottom — and naturally the action gravitates toward the road favorite. But rivalry games aren’t about instinct; they’re about volatility. Nearly 10 points is a massive cushion in a game that’s typically fought in the trenches. Indiana may not be the polished contender it was a season ago, but it is more than capable of competing in this environment. In heated divisional showdowns, you generally take the points.

Pistons vs Pacers prediction: Indiana +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.

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Memphis enters this matchup buried in negative narratives — sub-.500 record, inconsistent execution and the ongoing Ja Morant cloud that hovers over the franchise. Denver, meanwhile, sits at the opposite end of the spectrum. The Nuggets look every bit like the perennial powerhouse they have been in recent seasons, cruising at a .750 clip while displaying the efficiency, discipline and continuity that make them one of the league’s most respected tickets. Those contrasting storylines create a predictable pricing environment where Denver becomes the “safe” side and Memphis the risky one.

But the matchup tells a different story. The Grizzlies play with pace — top 10 in tempo — and that alone is significant against a Denver team that sits in the bottom third of the league in possessions per game. When a slower team meets an accelerator, the game tilts toward the group capable of pushing rhythm. More possessions mean more opportunities to score, and that is how Memphis can stay in contact — especially as a mid-range underdog. Denver may be the better team, but Memphis’ tempo is the counterweight that keeps this competitive. If the Grizzlies convert their additional looks, they can go score-for-score long enough to get home — and maybe even threaten an upset.

Nuggets vs Grizzlies prediction: Memphis +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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The Washington Capitals will be hosting the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday night. These 2 teams met exactly 1 month ago and we saw the Washington Capitals skate to a 5-1 victory on the road. Neither team has really been playing their best hockey of late, but the Capitals’ offense has been rolling with 18 goals scored in their last 3 games. A lot of this has come from veteran Alex Ovechkin, who has 4 goals in those last 3 games and 6 in his last 5. When he is scoring, this team seems to play its best. Netminder Logan Thompson is slated to get the start in this game, and he has been good this season. He boasts a 2.24 GAA and .910 SVP on the year. The Capitals will have the clear edge in goal. With home-ice advantage on their side, I expect them to be able to get it done.

The Blue Jackets have one solid line consisting of Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov. Aside from this trio, they do not have much scoring depth. If the Capitals can shut this line down like they did in the previous meeting, they should be successful. Give me the home team in this one.

Blue Jackets vs Capitals prediction: Washington ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Tampa Bay Lightning are looking to move their winning streak to 4 games on Monday night when they host the Philadelphia Flyers. They should be in a solid position to do so against a Philadelphia team that hasn’t performed well on the road so far in 2025. The Flyers are a strong 8-3-2 at home, but they are just 3-3-1 on the road. Scoring goals on a consistent basis has been a challenge for the Flyers. Philadelphia’s goals per game average drops from 2.92 at home to 2.57 on the road, which ranks 27th in the league.

Following a slow start out of the gate with a 1-4-2 mark through the first 7 games of the season, the Lightning have gotten back on track. Tampa Bay has won 11 of its last 14 games dating back to October 25. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is also turning things around after a relatively slow start, as his save percentage has gone from .899 in October to a strong .915 so far in November. Look for the Lightning to keep things rolling with a win on home ice in this one.

Flyers vs Lightning prediction: Tampa Bay ML (-170) available at time of publishing. Playable to -175.

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The Vegas Golden Knights will be paying another visit to the Utah Mammoth on Monday night. This is a rematch of just 4 nights ago. We saw the Golden Knights win that game 4-1 and it was dominated by superstar forward Jack Eichel, who is now up to 29 points in 21 games on the season. He continues to post numbers offensively while maintaining his solid defensive game. Eichel is supported by another star in Mitch Marner, who is sitting at a point per game on the year. The Knights are coming off a tough overtime loss to the rising Anaheim Ducks, so they will be looking to bounce back. Their combination of ability to score and play good team defense is what makes them tough to face. The Golden Knights are averaging 2.81 goals against per game, which is in the top 10 of the NHL.

Beating the Mammoth is no easy task, especially on home ice — where they are 6-2-1 this season. For me, it is their lack of solid goaltending that holds them back from being a really good team. Karel Vejmelka is slated to get the start on Monday; he has a .884 SVP on the season. The Golden Knights are the better team overall and I expect a similar outcome to the one we saw on Thursday night, when these teams met in Utah. Give me the Golden Knights on the money line.

Golden Knights vs Mammoth prediction: Vegas ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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