Parlays

The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins finish a 4-game series on Thursday night. These teams have traded lopsided victories, with the Marlins winning the first game 12-0, and then the Braves taking the next 2 games by scores of 8-4 and 9-1. On Thursday, we get a couple of top billing pitchers on the hill as Spencer Strider faces Sandy Alcantara. This should make for a great matchup—almost none of the Marlins have seen Strider before, while some of the Braves have seen 30 or even 40 at-bats against Alcantara. This is probably going to be one of those days where good pitching just beats good hitting. I think there is a real chance the Marlins win in the end, and I like them at plus money.

Strider, of course, is making only his 4^th start of the season. He has battled injuries for the past couple years, and the Braves are handling him carefully. The pitch count will be limited, and if the Marlins can take some pitches and avoid an excessive number of strikeouts, Strider is unlikely to go deep into the game. Alcantara, on the other hand, intends to throw a complete game every time he takes the mound. I think there is a real chance that neither starter gives up much damage, but that Alcantara stays in the game a couple innings longer, and that makes the difference. Let’s roll the dice with the Marlins.

Braves vs Marlins Prediction: Miami Marlins ML (+120) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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Carlos Rodon has struggled since returning to the Yankees. His first 2 outings since returning from injury have spanned just 8 combined innings while walking 8 batters. He has allowed 5 earned runs with an additional unearned run crossing the plate. While Rodon does have 10 strikeouts and a healthy ground-ball rate, until he finds his form and ability to work deeper into starts, I am not looking to back him monetarily. He faces a Toronto lineup that has been lackluster against left-handed pitching this season. They don’t strike out often, though, and their plate discipline should give them a solid baseline when facing Rodon. We could see several bullpen arms used in this game for New York.

We are likely to see several bullpen arms for Toronto as well, as they are rolling with an opener for this game. Braydon Fisher is set to open Thursday’s game for the Blue Jays, marking his 25th appearance and 2nd time as an opener. Fisher enters play with a 3.08 ERA across 26.1 innings of work; we should only expect an inning or 2 from the right-hander before Toronto mixes and matches.

No matter which arm the opposing pitcher throws with, New York has been a deadly offense this season. Against righties, they rank 7th in wOBA, while they sit 2nd against lefties. Either way, I expect offensive production from New York, and I also look for Toronto to contribute against Rodon’s rust. As a result, I favor the over on the posted game total.

Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction: Over 8 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.

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The Arizona offense is rolling right now. The Diamondbacks scored 23 total runs in their 3-game sweep over the Giants, and they enter this Thursday night matchup against the Rockies averaging 7.0 runs per game over their last 6 contests. Going up against Colorado starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano, the D-Backs should be able to keep the offensive momentum going. Opponents own a strong .794 OPS against Sugano, as he has a 6.46 ERA through 3 starts in May. With the way the D-Backs bats are rolling right now, Sugano figures to have his hands full. Plus, Arizona is facing Sugano for the 2nd time is as many starts for the 36-year-old right-hander. Last week, Sugano allowed just 2 runs over 5.0 innings against the D-Backs, but he still allowed 7 hits and had just a single strikeout. I expect the Diamondbacks to be better this time around.

Eduardo Rodriguez will toe the rubber for the home team. The veteran left-hander has had a rough tenure in the desert, as he owns a 4.51 ERA in 48 starts with the Diamondbacks. His numbers this season aren’t bad, but he is still a tough pitcher to trust at this point in time. His current ERA of 2.53 is nearly 2 full runs lower than his xERA of 4.51, and he allowed 9 hits and 3 earned runs over 5.1 innings of work last week against the Rockies. Neither of these starting pitchers rack up a ton of strikeouts, and both have had their fair share of struggles lately. All in all, both offenses appear to be at an advantage in this NL West matchup.

Rockies vs Diamondbacks best bet: Over 9 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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