Parlays

Many people have doubted this remarkable run of the Atlanta Hawks. Following their latest win over the Boston Celtics, I think it’s safe to say that they are indeed for real. Only the Spurs and Thunder have a better record over the past 15 games than the Hawks’ 13-2 SU run. Atlanta has ranked seventh in offense and fifth in defense during this stretch, as well. Wednesday sees them try to deliver a knockout punch to the Orlando Magic, as the 2 teams meet for the fourth time this season with the Hawks leading the series 3-0. Apart from Jock Landale who is questionable, the Hawks are pretty much at full strength.

With just 3 wins in 10 games the Magic’s form has dipped significantly. Moreover, they are playing on the second night of a back-to-back following yesterday’s close win over Phoenix. It was their second win in 3 games, but in between those victories they suffered an embarrassing 52-point loss to Toronto. It was nice to get a win over Phoenix, for sure, but I’m not ready to say all of the issues have been fixed just like that. After all, Orlando did commit 25 turnovers in the win — which makes it even that more impressive that it was able to prevail. Orlando is winless in its last 5 games against East opponents, and it has also covered just 3 times in 9 games against teams from the Southeast Division.

The 3-ball has gone ice cold in the last 2 games for the Magic, with them connecting on just 9 and 10 threes. This team won’t wow you away with its play on the offensive end, and that could prove to be the key against Atlanta. The Hawks are flying high, scoring points for fun. They went over 120 in the last 2 meetings with Orlando; they will also be encouraged by having the rest advantage here. I’ll side with the more proven team.

Hawks vs Magic prediction: Atlanta -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The 2 teams at the bottom of the Central Division in the Eastern Conference will meet Wednesday night when the Indiana Pacers travel to take on the Chicago Bulls. This will be the fourth and final time these teams meet this season. The Pacers have won all 3 games against the Bulls this year, with their last win coming against Chicago 113-110 on January 28. These teams played in Chicago back on December 5, a game the Pacers won 120-105. With both teams eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will try to earn a season sweep of the Bulls tonight. To get there, Indiana will need to win back-to-back road games — something it hasn’t done all season. The Pacers won their last game on the road against the Orlando Magic 128-126. Pascal Siakam scored 37 points off 50% shooting. Siakam has played well down the stretch, averaging 22.4 points per game in his last 5 games. He has been even better against Chicago, averaging 26.7 points per game on 48% shooting against the Bulls this season.

Before jumping on the Pacers’ bandwagon, it is important to remember the struggles the Pacers have had all season. Before their road win at Orlando, the Pacers had gone through a stretch in which they lost 18 of their 19 games played. They have been the NBA’s worst team on the road this season with a record of 6-31 when playing away from Indiana. They haven’t been much better against the spread with a record of 13-24 on the road. The Bulls are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games behind solid play from Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis. They understand they are winless against the NBA’s worst team heading into this game. That should be all the motivation they need to go out and beat their division rival tonight.

Pacers vs Bulls prediction: Chicago -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The San Antonio Spurs and Victor Wembanyama are not messing around. They’ve not taken their foot off the gas pedal one bit, even though the number two seed in the West is pretty much wrapped up at this point. Wemby just had a 41 point, 16 rebound and 3 blocks game in just 31 mins as the Spurs won their 9th game in a row. Their Net Rating during this win streak is an impressive +18 points, so it’s no wonder they’re once again double-digit favorites at Chase Center on Wednesday. The interesting part is, they have 2 defeats in 3 meetings with the Warriors this year, however in both those wins Stephen Curry went off for 46 and 49 points. In the lone meeting without him, San Antonio dominated by 13 points.

Everything hinges on Curry’s return for the Warriors, although he is close to coming back, there’s still no definitive date set for that to happen. To say that it’s been a struggle without him would be an understatement – the offensive rating falls off by almost 9 points per 100 possessions when Steph is out. The Warriors do have 3 wins in their last 4 games, but those came against Dallas, Brooklyn and Washington, not exactly competitive teams at this point of the season. They just got blown out by the Denver Nuggets 116-93, failing to cover for the 6th time in 7 games. Judging by their run of 6 games in a row without covering at home, it could be a struggle against San Antonio as well.

This is all about Wemby and him making his MVP case. The Spurs are showing no mercy, they are just the better team overall here and should dominate right from the get go. Golden State is 2 games away from the 9th seed with 7 left to play, they’ll be demoralized after last night’s Trail Blazers win against the Clippers. I’ll go with the safer option here and back San Antonio.

Spurs vs Warriors prediction: Spurs -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This is a classic overreaction spot, and it sets up perfectly for the New York Mets to respond. Yesterday’s shutout loss to the St. Louis Cardinals was more about isolated performance than any real shift in team quality. Andre Pallante delivered a standout outing, while Kodai Senga was superb in his own right — he just didn’t do 6.0 shutout innings of 3-hit ball. Mets reliever Richard Lovelady once again exposed the one weak link in an otherwise dependable New York bullpen. That combination created the 3-0 result, but it’s not something that projects forward consistently.

New York now hands the ball to ace Freddy Peralta. When Peralta is on, he can completely neutralize opposing lineups with his strikeout ability and swing-and-miss stuff. That gives the Mets a clear edge on the mound against Matthew Liberatore. Beyond pitching, New York remains superior in overall roster construction. The Mets’ bullpen depth, outside of Lovelady is reliable, and their lineup is more disciplined and capable of generating runs through approach rather than volatility. This is where the market corrects. The Mets are the better team, and this is a spot in which they should prove it.

Mets vs Cardinals prediction: New York -1.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Small market sports teams are forced to constrict rosters under harsher circumstances than teams with endless funds, and 2 of the best small market teams in all of sports are the Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams have built reputations across the league as teams you don’t want to trade with, as they always seem to come out on top of those deals. Big name players that are seeking lucrative extensions often get shipped away, but the prospect return the organization gets has been able to keep their system rolling. Perhaps no 2 teams have been better at picking up castaways and giving them the coaching and nurturing needed to make it at the MLB level. Both teams made moves this offseason that could have raised eyebrows, but I have learned to trust their player scouting and development.

As for Wednesday’s matchup, I lean towards the Brewers grabbing a win at home. Milwaukee grabbed Game 2 of this series Tuesday evening after Tampa Bay opened the set with a win of their own. I expect a pitching duel in this game with both Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Misiorowski performing well in their season debuts. Misiorowski recorded 11 Ks in just 5 innings of work, allowing just one run on a solo home run. Rasmussen also tossed 5 innings of 1-run ball, allowing a solo shot as well. Rasmussen was less lethal in the strikeout department, but he was efficient with his pitch count and could see his workload extended this time through the rotation. Pricing is the main reason for siding with Milwaukee in this spot, as a -140 price tag for backing Misiorowski is enticing regardless of matchup. Factor in that Milwaukee is at home, and they are the side for me on Wednesday.

Brewers vs Rays prediction: Brewers ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.

Things were looking good for the Tigers last night as they carried a 5-1 lead into the eighth inning, but their bullpen fell apart, giving up five runs and allowing the Diamondbacks to come away with a 7-5 victory. Detroit will look to bounce back today as they send their ace, Tarik Skubal, to the mound. Skubal was terrific in his first start of the season – pitching six scoreless innings, giving up three hits and striking out six. For the Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen gets the nod and will try to rebound from a rough outing against the Dodgers, where he allowed four earned runs on five hits over four innings.  

Offensively, Detroit has struggled to start the season, hitting just .214 with one home run, though they’re still averaging 4.8 runs per game. The Diamondbacks have been slightly more productive, batting .236 with six home runs while also averaging 4.8 runs per game. Even though the Tigers bullpen blew last night’s game, I trust Skubal way more in this matchup than I do Gallen. Skubal has a variety of pitches he can beat you with, ranging from a dominating high-velocity fastball that can touch 100mph to a devastating changeup that hovers around 88mph that keeps hitters off balance. Plus, he’ll throw in sinkers, sliders, and an occasional curveball. Despite their issues with the bullpen last night, the Tigers still hold a 3.21 bullpen ERA while the Diamondbacks bullpen holds a 8.16 ERA. With a clear advantage on the mound, look for Skubal to lead the Tigers to a win, making them my best bet of the day. 

Tigers vs Diamondbacks prediction: Detroit ML  (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.