Parlays

There have been 34 runs scored in the first 2 games between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago White Sox. The teams split the first 2 contests of the series and will close out their set Thursday evening. I favor the under in Game 3 given the starting pitching matchup.

Michael Soroka is set to make his 5th start with Arizona, and he has been a pleasant surprise so far for the Diamondbacks. Soroka began his season with 10 Ks across 5 scoreless frames against the Tigers, and he followed that up with 5 innings of 1-run ball against Atlanta. His worst start so far was against Philadelphia, allowing 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings but still recording 10 strikeouts in an Arizona win. Soroka’s last start resulted in 7 efficient innings of 2-run ball against Toronto. His 3.01 FIP supports his 2.78 ERA to this point, and I expect success for the right-hander against this Chicago lineup.

Davis Martin has also been successful this season, posting a 2.16 ERA through his first 25 innings of work. The right-hander has made 4 starts so far, tossing 7 complete frames in each of his last 2 starts. In fact, his body of work in April so far reads: 20 innings with just 3 earned runs allowed. He is not a big strikeout arm, instead relying on generating weak contact, but Martin has been the best option in this White Sox rotation so far. He may get a bit dinged up against a quality opponent like Arizona, but I lean towards the under on the posted game total in this game.

Diamondbacks vs White Sox prediction: Under 8.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The San Francisco Giants got off to a slow start this season, but they’ve turned things around, winning 5 of their last 6 games and putting themselves in a position to sweep the Los Angeles Dodgers. San Francisco got a dominant outing from Tyler Mahle last night, pitching 7 scoreless innings and giving up just 4 hits to pick up his first win of the season. Now, the Giants will turn to their ace Logan Webb, who enters at 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA and is still looking to find consistency early in the season. For the Dodgers, Tyler Glasnow has been sharp to start the year, going 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA and racking up 29 strikeouts across 25 innings pitched. 

While Glasnow has been dominant, this Giants lineup doesn’t go down easily – it ranks among the lowest strikeout teams in the league, which could limit Glasnow’s upside. Offensively, both teams have been comparable over their last 10 games, with the Giants hitting .263 and the Dodgers close behind at .258, but the Dodgers are holding a slight edge in runs scored — sitting at 4.5 runs per game in that span compared to the Giants’ 3.4. Even though the Dodgers have struggled offensively in this series, combining for a total of 7 hits, I think this is a game  in which they’ll bounce back.

The Dodgers are incredibly talented offensively, and for them to stay this cold for this long is unlikely. Plus, Webb has struggled in the majority of his starts this year. While San Francisco is playing better baseball as of late, you can’t count out the defending champs, and I think Glasnow and their offense will do just enough to pick up the win and end this brutal road trip for Los Angeles. 

Dodgers vs Giants prediction: LA Dodgers ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I favor the Minnesota Twins over the New York Mets Thursday evening, as I like the matchup for Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan. Ryan enters this game in terrific form, and in his past matchups with active Mets batters, he has found tremendous success. Active Mets have 69 combined plate appearances against Ryan with just a .398 OPS as well as 32 strikeouts. Meanwhile, Ryan enters this start with a 3.2 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Advanced metrics — 2.66 xERA and a 2.45 FIP — suggest he’s even better than his ERA shows, and he is fresh off of back-to-back quality starts against the Blue Jays and Reds.

Christian Scott is set to make his season debut in this game for the Mets. Scott made 9 starts with the Mets last season, totaling 47.1 innings of work in that stretch. His 4.56 ERA was shadowed by a 4.22 xERA and 4.60 FIP — a solid profile. Scott didn’t generate overwhelming strikeout numbers in his first MLB stint despite that being a large part of his minor-league success. So far this season in AAA, Scott tossed 13.2 innings across 3 starts, tallying a 5.27 ERA and 4.65 FIP. While he is clearly a talented prospect, I am not going to back him at current pricing against Joe Ryan.

Twins vs Mets prediction: Minnesota Twins ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.

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The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks will play a pivotal Game 3 in their Eastern Conference first-round series on Thursday night in Atlanta. They split the first 2 meetings in New York, so the Hawks now have home-court advantage. They also have the momentum, having taken Game 2 via a 107-106 decision on Monday. The Knicks certainly can’t be happy with a split — especially not after they took the series opener and then led by double-digits in the 4th quarter of Game 2 before collapsing. With the underdogs riding high and heading back to Atlanta, my Knicks vs Hawks pick is the home side on the money line.

Atlanta finds itself at 1-1 and there is still plenty of room for improvement, so that is an encouraging sign moving forward. The visitors stole Game 2 inside Madison Square Garden, even though they went 9-for-30 from three-point range and lost the rebounding battle by 11. Such long-distance futility cannot be expected again, and — although the Hawks probably won’t out-rebound the Knicks — they shouldn’t get manhandled by double-digits on the boards. Moreover, New York attempted 15 more free throws than Atlanta over the first 2 contests. That isn’t a surprise with home cooking for the Knicks in MSG, but it likely won’t be the case in ATL.

Although the Hawks are nothing special at home, the Knicks went 22-19 on the road during the regular season compared to 30-10 in New York. It’s also worth noting that Atlanta guard CJ McCollum (32 points in Game 2) has scored at least 26 points in 3 straight games dating back to the regular-season finale. Give me the Hawks to keep their momentum rolling.

Knicks vs Hawks prediction: Atlanta Hawks ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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After holding serve and winning the opening 2 games, the Cavaliers are now looking to deliver the knockout punch when they head to Canada for another date with the Raptors. You’d be hard-pressed to find any flaws in the team’s performances through the first 2 games, as Cleveland never trailed in Game 2 in what was a wire-to-wire victory. With the series now switching to Canada for the next 2 games, things could get a lot more interesting. The oddsmakers still view the Cavs as slight favorites, even though history tells us it’s been difficult for them to get results there. Over the past 14 visits, they’ve earned just 4 wins at Scotiabank Arena, plus they finished the regular season covering only once in 5 road games.

Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett showed up for the Raptors in Game 2, combining for 48 points, while Brandon Ingram was a no-show with just 7 points on 3-for-15 shooting and 5 turnovers. It’s been a struggle for the former Laker so far in this series, so maybe a change of scenery helps him bounce back in Game 3? During the regular season he averaged 3.8 ppg more and shot 4.6% better from the field and 8% better from three in home games. Getting Immanuel Quickley back from his hamstring injury would also be helpful, as Toronto really missed his 16.4 ppg on offense. Quickley also averaged 6.3 assists per game in 3 meetings with the Cavs during the regular season, and having him to handle the ball would do wonders for head coach Darko Rajakovic, who has struggled to put his main scorers in positions to score due to a lack of ball handlers available to him.

It’s now or never for the Raptors. I’m expecting a completely different game than the first 2 we watched in Cleveland. It’s hard to imagine a player of Ingram’s experience playing 3 consecutive bad games at this stage. Toronto has covered in 8 of 9 home games coming into this one; they’re also 10-4 SU in 14 home games vs the Cavs. Going down 3-0 would basically mean elimination, so let’s back the Raps to bounce back here. Toronto wins Game 3.

Cavaliers vs Raptors Game 3 prediction: Toronto Raptors ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable to +120.

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Arguably the best series of the opening round of the NBA playoffs thus far has been this Western Conference tilt between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets. These teams have a well-established rivalry at this point, and we’ve seen the momentum in their matchups go back and forth, often within the same game. This was certainly the case in Game 2, as the Nuggets raced out to a 14-point lead at the end of the opening quarter, only for the game to be tied at halftime just 12 minutes later. Minnesota ended up dominating the 4th quarter and stealing home court in this series, but the Timberwolves can’t be counted on to follow up that performance with another consistent effort from start to finish. Furthermore, Denver has struggled mightily in Game 2’s in the Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray era, but considering that the Nuggets have been the better team for at more than half of the first 2 games, and their star duo played so poorly in the 4th quarter of Game 2, it’s hard not to look Denver’s way in a bounce-back spot in Game 3.

The Nuggets are certainly not without flaw, but their meltdown in Game 2 was entirely preventable. Defensively, Denver has actually played at a much higher level over the first 2 games than what the popular opinion would lead you to believe. In fact, if you remove the second quarter of Game 2, the Nuggets defense would be a top-5 unit in defensive rating among all playoff teams thus far. Even when factoring in that 39-point period, Denver is still 6th in defensive rating and should be motivated to put forth its best showing of the series following a full 2 days off to rest and recuperate — a significant detail for a team that has a couple of key players nursing a few injuries.

On the other side of the floor, the Nuggets still boast the top offense in the postseason, and Denver is due for a bit of positive regression after shooting just 43% from the field and 32% from beyond the arc over the first 2 games. Conversely, Minnesota is coming off a hot shooting game that also saw the Wolves own the glass. Even at home, I wouldn’t expect both of those things to continue on Thursday. Look for Denver to set the tone early and flip the tenor of this series with a pivotal road victory over its hated rival.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves prediction: Denver Nuggets ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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After splitting the first 2 games in Buffalo, the first-round series between the Sabres and Bruins now shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Thursday night. Although the series is tied 1-1, the Bruins have been the better team. Boston held a 2-0 lead late into the 3rd period of Game 1 before Buffalo orchestrated a dramatic comeback. The Bruins then thoroughly dominated the Sabres in Game 2, cruising to a 4-2 victory that included a 4-0 lead early in the 3rd period. Aside from those wild 8 minutes in Game 1, the Bruins have out-played the Sabres in the first 2 games of this series. Now returning to home ice, Boston should enter Game 3 with plenty of confidence.

Boston’s veteran offensive attack seems to have an edge over Buffalo’s goaltending situation. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was pulled in Game 2 after allowing 4 goals on 20 shots. Alex Lyon replaced him, and he had not been between the pipes since April 4. It remains to be seen who will get the starting nod in this one, but either way, David Pastrnak and company should be able to put the pressure on early. Boston’s second line trio of Casey Mittelstadt, Pavel Zacha and Viktor Arvidsson is absolutely buzzing, and their solid contributions in this series make the Bruins extremely dangerous. Playing on home ice, back the Bruins on the moneyline in this one.

Sabres vs Bruins prediction: Bruins ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This best-of-7 Eastern Conference series shifts from North Carolina’s capital city to Canada’s capital city, as the Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators battle in Game 3. Carolina leads 2-0 after winning a pair of low-scoring games at Lenovo Center, as the Canes opened up with a 2-0 win behind Frederik Andersen, who posted his 6th-career NHL postseason shutout — the most for a goaltender born outside of North America. In Game 2, the Canes outlasted the Hurricanes 3-2 in double overtime, as Jordan Martinook provided the heroics to end the marathon game.

The common denominator in both games is the under. We’ve had a total of just 7 combined goals in the 2 games, and the series has played out to expectations. We’ve had low scores, physicality, animosity, defense, forechecking and good goaltending on both sides. There is no reason to believe that will not continue just because of a shift in venue. Last season, each of these teams cashed the under in Game 3 when their series shifted venues, and we’ll keep banging low on the total until something dramatically changed. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the books over flat fives at some point in this series if it continues to go this way.

Hurricanes vs Senators Game 3 prediction: Under 5.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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Game 3 between the Colorado Avalanche and the Los Angeles Kings is set to take place in California, and it feels like a must-win situation for the Kings. Colorado managed to secure victories on their home ice, but its offence hasn’t quite found its rhythm yet. They have only scored four goals in the first two games. While we can credit Los Angeles’ goaltending for keeping things competitive, this series really shouldn’t be as close as it currently is.

The Kings have struggled on home ice this season, but perhaps things will change in the postseason. Their inability to score goals has been evident in the first two games, and they will need more from their supporting players. With the advantage of playing at home, they might benefit from more favourable matchups. The total for the game is set at 5.5, which seems reasonable, but there is a chance that scoring opportunities could increase. We’re betting on the Over, hoping for a night filled with high-danger scoring chances.

Avalanche vs Kings Game 3 prediction: Over 5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.