Parlays

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The Big Ten Tournament is moving into the quarterfinal round on Friday, and one of the most intriguing games on the slate comes in the form of a matchup between the Wisconsin Badgers and Illinois Fighting Illini from Chicago. Wisconsin is as hot as any team in the conference at the moment, ending the season with a flourish by dropping 97 points in a win over Purdue at Mackey Arena. The Badgers have 14 wins in their last 17 games dating back to January 6, and that stretch included victories over Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, UCLA and this same Illinois team in Champaign on February 10. With that in mind, even though it would be understandable to target Illinois to exact a bit of revenge in this spot, I can’t get there with laying nearly 3 full possessions with the Illini against an offense of Wisconsin’s calendar.

This is not a matchup that should feature much defense, and that sort of game script should play into how Wisconsin wants to attack this contest. The Badgers are a threat to knock down 15 or more threes in any game they play, and we saw them hit 16 threes and shoot over 40% from downtown in the first meeting one month ago. Illinois does a fairly good job in terms of limiting opponents inside the arc, but the Illini are ranked 255th in 3-point rate allowed on defense, so it wouldn’t shock me if the Badgers are able to attempt 40 threes in this one. That level of variance is something I generally like betting with an underdog, especially in a game where both teams are going to attempt a ton of threes and we should see plenty of possessions. Furthermore, it’s also important to mention that Illinois is dealing with a couple of key injury and/or illness questions heading into this one, including freshman phenom Keaton Wagler (back spasms) and guard Andrej Stojakovic (flu). This should be an entertaining game from start to finish, and I’ll gladly take the points with the underdog.

Wisconsin vs Illinois prediction: Wisconsin +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

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The top seeds finally get involved in the Big Ten tournament on Friday, as the Nebraska Cornhuskers enter the mix to face the Purdue Boilermakers. The Boilers dispatched Northwestern on Thursday with relative ease, but the home stretch of their regular season was anything but pretty. They lost 3 of their last 4, including 2 at home. They beat the Huskers in overtime a few weeks ago (more on that game below), but this will probably be a battle. I think people nationwide still fail to realize just how good this Nebraska team is, and there is a reason it is the #2 seed. Catching 4 points in this spot? That’s a definite play for me.

These teams profile very similarly — good offense, good defense, they both score inside the arc well, and neither gets to the line often, nor sends the opponent there often. The difference in the profile is that Nebraska both takes a ton of 3s and also defends the arc well, while Purdue allows a lot of 3s and does not defend them very well. The reason that didn’t add up to a win for Nebraska in the regular season is because it got out-rebounded 52 to 33, including 20 to 4 on the offensive glass. Nobody wins basketball games like that at any level. Even if Purdue is qualitatively better on the boards, getting dominated that heavily is just an effort issue. Nebraska should close that gap on the glass, and this game will swing the other way.

All season, Purdue has been something of a “pretty boy” team — it dominates bad teams, but once it faces an equal it gets exposed. I expect the same thing here. The Boilermakers are also a bad cover team, sitting at just 13-18 against the spread on the season. Nebraska can and will hang with Purdue and could very well win outright. Let’s take the points.

Purdue vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska +4 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +2.5.

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Fifth-seeded Iowa State will look to pull off an upset in the Big 12 tournament as they get ready to take on #1 Arizona. These teams met back on March 2nd, when Arizona dominated in a 73-57 victory, holding the Cyclones to just 29.2% shooting and out-rebounding them 40 to 33. Arizona has been one of the best teams in college basketball this season; the Wildcats led the Big 12 in scoring, averaging 86.5 points per game, compared to Iowa State’s 81.8. Defensively, however, the Cyclones hold a slight edge. Iowa State allowed just 64.6 points per game this season — while Arizona gave up 68.3. 

Since their loss to Arizona, Iowa State regained its form, winning its last 3 games, including a win over a strong Texas Tech team. In this matchup, the Cyclones will need to find a way to limit the Wildcats’ ability to rebound the ball. Arizona averages 45.9 rebounds per game compared to Iowa State’s 38.8. Moreover, Arizona has one of the most efficient offenses in the Big 12 this season, which will make it tough for Iowa State to keep pace. With the Wildcats well-rested heading into this game and the Cyclones coming off back-to-back games, fatigue could be an issue for Iowa State as the game progresses. Look for Arizona to push the pace early and test Iowa State’s defense. While the Cyclones may be able to keep things close at first, the Wildcats’ depth and extra rest should allow them to pull away as the game goes on. 

Iowa State vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -4 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Los Angeles Kings continue their 5-game East Coast road trip on Friday night with a matchup against the New York Islanders at UBS Arena. The Kings made the move to trade for Artemi Panarin just before the deadline, and while Panarin has been a steady contributor offensively, the Kings are just 3-4-1 with him in the lineup. Furthermore, Los Angeles’ plans for their forward group with Panarin in the mix got turned sideways then Kevin Fiala went down with a season-ending lower body injury in the Olympics. Fiala is still second on the team with 40 points this season, and not having him in the lineup is a tough blow for the Kings.

On the other side, the Islanders are happy to be returning home following a lengthy 4-game road trip on the West Coast. New York has been strong on home ice all season long, owning a record of 17-10-2 at UBS Arena. The Isles enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins against the Sharks and Blues and have won 7 of their last 9 games. Ilya Sorokin continues to be in fine form between the pipes, and he is slated to get the starting nod in this one. He seems to have a favorable matchup on his hands, as the Kings rank 29th in the NHL by scoring 2.58 goals per game. Let’s back the Islanders at home.

Kings vs Islanders prediction: New York ML (-140) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Edmonton Oilers are looking to get back in the win column with a stop in St. Louis to take on the Blues. After a tough loss to Dallas, where they fell 7-2 following a 5-0 deficit, the Oilers are eager to turn things around. Goaltending has been an issue, with Tristan Jarry unable to make timely saves. However, the defence was heavily tested by a strong Stars team, so the blame doesn’t fall solely on him. The Pacific Division remains wide open, so Edmonton needs to start stringing together some wins if they want to secure the top spot.

The Blues are coming off a solid 3-1 victory against the Hurricanes and still have an outside chance of making the playoffs. Like Edmonton, they are also playing at the tail end of a back-to-back series and their third game in four nights. St. Louis has struggled to score goals all year, but they might find some success tonight against a team that has been facing challenges in goal. With skill present on both sides, this game could be a high-scoring affair, but it’s also possible that Joel Hofer steps up and plays well. We’re leaning slightly towards the Over, especially given the Oilers’ elite power play and the presence of arguably two of the best players in the world.

Oilers vs Blues Prediction: Over 6.5 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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A new chapter in the Knicks vs Pacers rivalry is set to unfold on Friday, with the regular season series tied at 1-1 between these teams. Considering the state the Pacers are in right now, you’d think this would be a cakewalk for the Knicks. However, with those first two meetings being decided by just 1 and 3 points and the Pacers winning at MSG, the Knicks will have to proceed with caution here. The injury situation in Mike Brown’s camp isn’t the best either, as both Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart are questionable to play with knee issues.

The oddsmakers aren’t kind at all to the Pacers here and you can’t really blame them. Indy enters this game as a +13.5 underdog, mainly because of their recent form, but also due to the fact that they’ll be playing on the 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario here. Ivica Zubac finally made his debut for the team in last night’s double-digit loss to Phoenix, while the injury report for tonight’s game has Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith and Pascal Siakam all officially listed out. If you’re wondering who will take the floor for the Pacers in this game, you are not alone.

Normally I’d think twice before backing the Knicks to cover here given the history between the two teams. However, with the state of the Pacers being really bad at the moment, I have my doubts they can keep things close here. Their last 5 games have seen them allow 120+ points 4 times and with most of their starters out here, I do not believe they’ll be able to contain Jalen Brunson and the rest of the Knicks. New York is 10-4 SU in 14 road games and has covered in 6 of 8 overall. Back the Knicks.

Knicks vs Pacers prediction: New York Knicks -13.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This matchup looks extremely lopsided on paper, which explains why Detroit is laying a massive number. The Pistons enter with one of the best records in the league at 47–18, while Memphis sits near the bottom of the Western Conference at 23–42. Oddsmakers have responded accordingly, installing Detroit as huge chalk.

Spreads of this size often become more about game script than talent. When a favorite is laying more than 2 touchdowns, it must maintain separation for nearly the entire game to justify the number. Even elite teams struggle to sustain that type of margin over 48 minutes. The Grizzlies’ offensive profile also works in favor of an underdog cover. Memphis is capable of playing at a faster tempo, which creates scoring bursts that can quickly erase large margins. In high-possession environments, even short runs from the underdog can put them in range to cover under this lofty number. Another factor is motivation and rotation management. Detroit’s priority is winning and maintaining playoff positioning, not necessarily pushing a blowout margin late. If the Pistons build a comfortable lead, the game can naturally flatten in the fourth quarter. Memphis does not need to outperform Detroit to cover. It simply needs to remain competitive enough to prevent the Pistons from piling on a scoring avalanche. With such a large number attached, the value sits with the points.

Grizzlies vs Pistons prediction: Memphis Grizzlies +15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +15.

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With 2 losses in 3 games, the Cavaliers have slowed down a bit, but luckily for them their next 5 opponents are all teams with losing records — so bouncing back should be easy. First up, they have a back-and-forth with the Dallas Mavericks, with the first game taking place in Texas on Friday night. This has been a matchup dominated by the Cavs over the past 3 years, as they swept the regular season series in each of those 3 seasons. The last 2 meetings were decided by 43 and 12 points, while Cleveland has been able to cover the spread consistently in games played in Dallas — doing so 4 times in 5 visits. Jarrett Allen and Max Struss are the only notable injury absentees here, whether or not that has an impact on this game remains to be seen.

The Mavs just ended an 8-game losing streak last night by beating the Memphis Grizzlies on the road. It was only their 3rd win since January 24th, accompanied by 18 losses. Cooper Flagg’s play since the injury has put his Rookie of the Year campaign in jeopardy, as he’s averaging just 16.3 points on pedestrian efficiency numbers (34% from the field and 25% from three). With this being a 2nd night of a back-to-back, I wouldn’t be surprised if Flagg was kept out of this game. In these back-to-back spots, the Mavericks are just 5-6 SU in 11 games this season.

This is Cleveland’s game to lose. Allen not playing hurts them a bit in the rebounding department, but with a healthy Donovan Mitchell and a motivated James Harden, they should be able to put up enough points to cover here. Dallas has lost 3 in a row when playing with no rest, with 2 of those losses being by 20 and 19 points. Go with the Cavs here.

Cavaliers vs Mavericks Predictions: Cleveland Cavaliers -13 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.