Parlays

Dillon Brooks’ return from injury didn’t pan out the way Suns fans expected in his first game back, as Phoenix fell 115-111 on the road in Orlando. Brooks had just 9 points on 4-for-13 shooting, and I was actually surprised the team turned to him in the clutch after such a long layoff from injury. Thursday is a new opportunity for Brooks to find his footing, as the Suns take on the Hornets. Phoenix cannot move up or down in the West standings, which could be a good thing — as it gives them an opportunity to shuffle their lineup a bit and give their better players some rest before the play-in tournament. For what it’s worth, they beat the Hornets in the first meeting 111-99 less than a month ago.

March didn’t end exactly how the Hornets planned it would with back-to-back losses to Boston and Philadelphia, but they recovered successfully with a big win over the tanking Nets. It was their 6th win in 8 games and also the 6th time they covered the spread during that stretch. The good news for the Hornets is no one other than PJ Hall is on the injury report, which is quite remarkable for any team at this point of the season. Playing at home should make them feel comfortable here, as they’ve beaten 12 of their last 15 opponents from the West coast. Last season we saw them win this matchup at Spectrum Center by 11 points, ending a streak of five Suns wins in this building.

I’d seriously consider the Suns here if Brooks was back in his pre-injury form, but the fact that he still has to shake off the rust is a massive turn off for me. In order to beat these Hornets, you have to be atop of your game offensively, and I just don’t think the Suns are right now. Booker will likely get his, but the Hornets will be too much to handle here. Take Charlotte.

Suns vs Hornets prediction: Charlotte Hornets -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This is one of the few spots where laying a larger number is justified by both matchup and season-long profile. Oklahoma City has already beaten the Lakers twice this season, once in a blowout and once in a controlled game, which shows they can win this matchup in multiple ways. That’s critical when evaluating a spread in this range.

The Thunder’s biggest edge is defensive pressure. They force teams into uncomfortable offensive possessions, limit clean perimeter looks, and turn games into execution battles. That’s especially important against a Lakers team that has been playing well but relies heavily on offensive rhythm and shot-making. At home, Oklahoma City amplifies that edge. Their energy, pace control, and defensive intensity tend to create separation, not just wins. They’re not a team that plays down. No, the Thunder extend leads when they gain control. When OKC dictates tempo, they remove transition opportunities and force opponents into half-court sets. That’s where margins can build over time. The Lakers are in strong form, but this is a matchup where their strengths are directly challenged. Oklahoma City has already shown it can control this pairing and at home, they’re well-positioned to do it again by margin.

Lakers vs Thunder prediction: OKC Thunder -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Portland Trail Blazers have been flying of late. They have won 7 of their last 10 games and have been by far the best team in the league in defensive rating during that stretch. It is no surprise that they have been able to hold 7 opponents under 105 points during that time. Tonight, they will host a New Orleans Pelicans team that could be heading into this contest without one of their leading scorers. Trey Murphy III has missed their last 3 games and is listed as questionable ahead of this one. The Pelicans suffered double-digit losses in each of those games that he missed.

In their last game, the Pelicans got completely dominated on the glass by the Houston Rockets, being out-rebounded 59-36. They gave up 22 offensive rebounds in the process. They now take on a team that is 3rd in rebounding percentage over the last 10 games, and Donovan Clingan has been a major part of that. The center also leads the league in total offensive rebounds this season. With him in the fold, the Pelicans should leak second-chance points and be held to one possession on most offensive trips. With how well this Trail Blazers team has been defending, it should set them up perfectly to cover the spread at home tonight.

Pelicans vs Trail Blazers prediction: Trail Blazers -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.5.

The red-hot Boston Bruins will be visiting the Florida Panthers on Thursday night. The Bruins come into this game riding a 4-game winning streak and they are 7-1-2 in their last 10 games. They are comfortably sitting in the first wildcard position, with a 6-point cushion on the Columbus Blue Jackets who occupy the second wildcard spot. Despite not having many household names aside from David Pastrnak amongst their forward group, the Bruins are a very good offensive team, averaging 3.36 goals per game. They will be going up against the 5th-worst defensive team in the league in the Panthers, who allow an average 3.32 goals per game. The Bruins are 0-2 against the Panthers this season, and they can’t afford to get swept in the season series.

I like the Bruins to get it done on Thursday night, as they will be the hungrier team with still something left to play for this season. Look for Pastrnak and Swayman to have strong games and lead the way for them.

Bruins vs. Panthers prediction: Boston Bruins ML (-155) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Carolina Hurricanes will be hosting the Columbus Blue Jackets, who come into this game riding a 4-game losing streak. Things won’t get any easier for the Blue Jackets going up against the Hurricanes, who are 26-10-2 on home ice this season. What makes the Hurricanes difficult to play against is their relentless forecheck in the offensive zone. On top of this, they are good at capitalizing on their scoring chances, as they are the 4th-best offensive team in the league — averaging 3.49 goals per game.

At the other end of the ice, the Hurricanes play a very tight defensive game, limiting their opponents to only 24 shots on goal per game — which is the best in the NHL. The Hurricanes are also dominant against teams within their division. Their record against Metropolitan Division opponents is 17-4-1 on the season. For my money, the Hurricanes are a much more complete and well put together team than the Blue Jackets.

The Blue Jackets are in a tight playoff race, and I expect them to play desperately. However, they are going up against a better team in the Hurricanes. Give me Carolina in this one.

Blue Jackets vs Hurricanes prediction: Hurricanes ML (-185) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets clash for an important Central Division matchup in the NHL on Thursday. As Winnipeg desperately surges to a playoff position, Dallas is in a battle for home-ice advantages, so there is plenty to play for tonight. To get you ready for this upcoming hockey action, here is our expert Jets vs. Stars prediction.

Winnipeg has been far hotter than Dallas, with a 4-1-1 record in their last 6, and while they are fighting for their lives, this will be a big challenge for them. Winnipeg has struggled on the road this season, winning just 13 of 35 appearances. Even with a playoff spot locked up, the Stars are both in range of the NHL lead, but also need to ensure the Minnesota Wild do not catch them. They will also be looking to return to the win column and build momentum after some recent shaky play. Both teams are dealing with injuries, and while Dallas may have a longer list, they have a deeper team with far more star talent taking the ice. Dallas has owned Winnipeg this season, winning all 3 contests, and I see them sweeping the season series in this game. We are siding with Dallas on the money line for our Jets vs. Stars prediction.

Jets vs. Stars prediction: Stars ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable to (-180)

We’ve come to the Final Four, and the first matchup features the Connecticut Huskies vs the Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois came out of the South, benefiting from Iowa dispatching top-seeded Florida. Over in the East, UConn had to do the dirty work themselves, mounting an improbable comeback to oust Duke at the buzzer. UConn has become a team that is hard to bet against, but Hurley and his antics have also made them a tournament villain for many fans. All that aside, I do like Illinois in this matchup, and as long as this spread stays close, I am happy to grab it. Be careful here though, because this game is likely to stay tight, and we don’t want to risk the dreaded win-no-cover if we can avoid it.

Why will Illinois win? Here are several factors. First, they have the #1 offense in the country in terms of efficiency, and they have only gotten better as the season has gone along. UConn has an elite defense, but offense tends to win out at this stage. Second, UConn is great at keeping teams out of transition, but Illinois doesn’t care about that. They seem to prefer to play in halfcourt sets anyway. Third, Illinois is the #3 offensive rebounding team in the nation, and that tends to put defenses in a terrible position. Finally, Illinois is the best team in the country at keeping opponents off the foul line, while Connecticut is one of the worst at getting to the line. That means every point for the Huskies is likely to be a grind.

You might note that these teams played early in the season, and the Huskies won by 13. Don’t make too much of that game because lots of things have changed since then, and teams are doing almost nothing that they were doing 5 months ago. The Illinois offense has taken off since then, and this game should go very differently. Give me Illinois to cover this game at -2, but let’s not push for a multi-possession victory too aggressively here.

UConn vs Illinois prediction: Illinois Fighting Illini -2 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The NCAA Tournament has produced plenty of memorable moments and even a few genuinely shocking results, such as UConn’s miraculous victory over Duke in the final seconds. However, while it’s not quite the National Championship game, it certainly feels as if all roads have led to this matchup in the Final Four between the Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats. These teams have been the class of college basketball for the vast majority of the season, and both sides have shown their quality en route to fairly dominant runs to this year’s installment of the Final Four in Indianapolis. This game is priced competitively and oddsmakers are certainly expecting a barnburner in a showdown between the top 2 teams on both KenPom and BartTorvik. In what should be the Game of the Year in college basketball, the only question that remains is which of these juggernauts will come out on top and play for a national title.

Given that this is a real clash of the titans, there’s only so much that is really separating the top teams in the sport. Ultimately, I strongly believed that Arizona was the best team in the nation heading into the postseason, and my thoughts haven’t changed heading into this weekend’s matchup. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the plus-money price we’re getting with the Wildcats on Saturday. The biggest potential concern that I’d have with backing Arizona in this one is the math advantage that Michigan could have in this game, as the Wolverines attempt far more threes than their counterparts. If Michigan is knocking down shots from beyond the arc, it’s going to be extremely difficult for any team to hang with an offense of this caliber. However, Michigan is shooting nearly 45% from deep in this tournament and Arizona boasts a strong 3-point defense, so we can expect some regression from the Wolverines on that front. Furthermore, the Wildcats are a supremely elite team in a myriad of areas, and Tommy Lloyd’s team should hold advantages when it comes to turnover margin (where Michigan is a below average unit), rebounding margin and free-throw rate. In a game that is expected to come down to the wire, backing an underdog that does a lot of the little things at a very high level is a pretty attractive option.

Both teams certainly want to get out and run, and we’ve seen each program use their prowess in transition to great success in this tournament. In a game where the rubber will really hit the road and victory will likely be decided by the slimmest of margins, getting stops in transition will matter, and Arizona has already done an excellent job of that in March, specifically against the likes of Arkansas and Utah State. The Wildcats frontcourt is also uniquely suited to slow down a Michigan interior that has been one of the most efficient units in the paint all season long. The twin towers of Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendenborg command so much defensive attention that it often leads to open shooters for the Wolverines on the perimeter. But with Motiejus Krivas, Koa Peat, Tobe Awaka and Ivan Karchenkov forming a very formidable defensive frontcourt presence, the water could get shut off a bit from the outside, as the Arizona guards should stay home on shooters. Speaking of the guards, the Wildcats clearly have the superior backcourt in this game, and there should be opportunities from Brayden Burries to get to his spots and hit shots from the perimeter. And when crunch time arrives, there are very few players I’d rather have on both ends than Jaden Bradley — a proven closer when the lights are brightest. Arizona is the slightly better team for my money, so I’ll gladly take the Wildcats as short underdogs in what should be a game for the ages.

Michigan vs Arizona prediction: Arizona ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

It is getaway day in Kansas City when the Royals host the Twins in their series finale on Thursday. The Royals have taken the first 2 games, and they send their ace to the mound as they look for the sweep. This seems like a spot where the public is going to flood to the KC side of this game, seeing the presumably better lineup at home, and with Cole Ragans on the mound. However, this is a sneaky spot to fade the public. When we look under the hood in this matchup, there is reason to think the Twins might steal it. I’ll take the Twins at a nice plus-money price tag.

First, let’s note that the wind is expected to be blowing out at over 20 mph on Thursday afternoon, and they just moved in the walls at Kauffman. That means these pitchers have to keep the ball out of the air. Ragans is a rather heavy fly ball pitcher. Uh oh. Taj Bradley has a much higher ground ball rate compared to Ragans. While we do not want to make too much of the first start of the season, Bradley threw 92 pitches and gave up just 1 run, while Ragans was tagged for 4 runs in his first start — lasting only 4 innings. Likewise, it is noteworthy that Garcia, Witt, and Pasquantino—the usual top of the order for KC— area combined 0-for-24 career vs Bradley. I am not saying this is the most comfortable play on the board, but there are a lot of reasons to justify betting the underdog here, and I’m going to be doing just that.

Twins vs Royals prediction: Twins ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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I find Thursday’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and the Arizona Diamondbacks to be a very intriguing game. Atlanta closed out their series with the Athletics yesterday, winning by a 5-1 final score to take the 3-game series. Arizona finished off their sweep of the Detroit Tigers and will remain in their home park for their series with the Braves. From a travel perspective Arizona has the upper hand, and I will be looking to take advantage of that through the first 5 innings of play. I also like limiting this bet to 5 innings as the Arizona bullpen is a unit I will be trying to avoid backing this season.

Ryne Nelson is the scheduled starter for Arizona this season, and I expect a strong bounce back effort from the right-hander today. Nelson’s season debut was not as intended, allowing 2 home runs and 4 earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Dodgers. Los Angeles is the best lineup in the sport, to be fair to Nelson, and he draws a step down in competition this evening. Atlanta is still a capable offense with firepower atop their order, but Nelson was very effective across his 154 innings last season. He posted a 3.39 ERA with similarly strong underlying metrics, and his performance was strongest at home.

Reynaldo Lopez is set to make his 2nd start of the season for the Braves in this game. Prior to his season debut I wrote about decreased velocity during his final spring tuneup, but his velocity returned in his season opener. Lopez was able to register 6 innings of 1-run ball against the Royals in his first outing, but that is a Royals unit that has been cold at the plate to start the season. The converted reliever showed signs of regression in 2024 before missing nearly all of 2025 with injury. I am hesitant to buy into his first outing and at current pricing I side with Arizona through 5 innings of play.

Braves vs Diamondbacks prediction: Arizona F5 ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.

The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants open up a four-game series as both teams look to find some consistency at the plate. The Mets rank 20th in batting average (.211) and are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, while the Giants have struggled even more offensively, sitting 26th with a .201 average and scoring only 2.3 runs per game. Despite those offensive struggles, pitching has been the story early on. The Mets have been dominant with a 2.50 team ERA, while the Giants have held their own with a 3.74 ERA. 

It will be a battle of left-handers in this one, with David Peterson getting the nod for New York. Peterson was sharp in his first start, throwing 5.1 scoreless innings while allowing six hits and striking out three. On the other side, Robbie Ray will take the mound for San Francisco after allowing two runs on five hits across 5.1 innings in his last outing. Neither lineup has found its rhythm yet, but the Mets do have the edge both on the mound and offensively. It’s encouraging to see Juan Soto and Luis Robert swinging hot bats early, and it’s only a matter of time before Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette start to heat up as well. Look for Peterson to deliver a better starting performance than Ray in this matchup as the Mets win a low-scoring battle at Oracle Park. 

Mets vs Giants prediction: Mets ML  (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.