Parlays

Immediately, several factors are working against the Carolina Panthers in this matchup. Before we get to these factors, we should say that home field advantage has proven to be a significant indicator of playoff success, at least since 2022. Over the past 4 seasons, home teams have gone 18-6 straight up. That being said, and with all due respect to the Carolina Panthers, that might be their only advantage.

That doesn’t mean Carolina can’t win this game. In fact, we’ve seen the Panthers play their best against some of their toughest opponents. One might remember a 30-0 statement in Week 3 after another predictable 0-2 start, a victory that suggested they might not be the same bottom-feeding program we’re used to. They followed with wins against Dallas, at Green Bay, versus Tampa in Week 16 to take control of their own destiny, and a seminal win in Week 13 against the very same Rams. They ran all over Sean McVay’s defense in Week 13, too, piling up 164 on the ground. 

We just have a hard time seeing the same result (or even close) in the Wild Card round. Matthew Stafford, currently leading the odds for MVP, had his worst outing of the year on that fateful Sunday 7 weeks ago. The former Super Bowl champion threw 2 interceptions at crucial parts of the game and lost a fumble on what should have been a game-winning touchdown drive. The Rams’ defense seemed to just take off work, allowing nearly 400 total yards (358) to the usually hapless Panthers. It was the worst we’ve seen LAR all season, which is why we’re confident we won’t see that again on Saturday.

Regression to the mean has a way of swinging back more vicious than it came, and in this instance, we think that’s a very plausible outcome. By every conceivable metric, the Rams are far better than the Panthers. In EPA metrics, the visitors have the 2nd-best offensive rating in the NFL. In the same category, the Panthers rank 26th. Davante Adams, their All-Pro wideout who led the NFL in touchdowns this season, despite missing the last 2 games, is expected to be back for this showdown. Add the retributive element of a rematch and the championship experience of the Rams’ leadership, and we’re anticipating a rare massacre of the home team.

Rams vs Panthers prediction: Rams -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The two oldest rivals in NFL history hook up in the playoffs for the 3rd time ever (1941 and 2010) on Saturday night at Soldier Field. Chicago (11-6) captured the NFC North title for the first time since 2018, overcoming an 0-2 start to win 11 of the final 15 games. Although the Bears lost a meaningless Week 18 game to the Lions, Chicago finished 6-2 at home with the first loss coming in the season-opening meltdown against Minnesota. The Bears posted a strong 11-5-1 ATS mark in head coach Ben Johnson’s first season, as the lone non-cover in a win occurred in the Week 10 comeback victory over the Giants.

Green Bay (9-7-1) stumbled to the finish line with 4 consecutive losses, though its biggest loss was arguably LB Micah Parsons tearing his ACL in the Week 15 setback at Denver. The game that cost the Packers the division title was the Week 16 meltdown at Chicago, blowing a 16-6 lead with 2 minutes remaining in regulation. The Bears scored 10 straight points to force overtime, then QB Caleb Williams connected with D.J. Moore on a 46-yard TD for the 22-16 triumph. Green Bay held off Chicago in the first matchup at Lambeau Field, 28-21 in Week 14, as the Packers are 4-2 against the Bears since Jordan Love took over at QB in 2023.

The Packers are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in the playoffs with Love starting, all played on the road. Green Bay put together a 6-11 ATS mark this season, including a 1-5 ATS record as a road favorite. However, 4 of those non-covers as away chalk came when laying at least a touchdown. Chicago led the league with 23 interceptions and a +22 in the takeaway department. Love finished with 6 interceptions, and 1 of those picks came in the home win over the Bears.

Chicago is seeking its first playoff win since 2010 against Seattle; the Bears lost to the Packers in the NFC Championship that year. Green Bay hasn’t been sharp over the last month, and although the money has moved in favor of the Packers, let’s grab the Bears as a home underdog.

Packers vs Bears prediction: Chicago Bears +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 1.

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Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have been fantastic in the 2nd half of the season, there is no denying that. New coach Liam Coen clearly has edges as an NFL head coach, both culturally and from a play-calling perspective, and it’s changed the franchise for the better. Since the start of November, their only loss was at the Texans, a barnburner of a contest where they were stymied by an all-world Houston defense, but they have been relatively flawless since. 

Lawrence is top-6 or better in many passing categories, including yards (4,006) and touchdowns (29). Through the air and on the ground, they’re consistent and productive, ranked 12th in EPA metrics. Their defense showed perhaps the most surprising improvement, up to 3rd overall in EPA metrics, including top-3 marks against opposing quarterbacks. 

The difference in this game is experience. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have been a QB-coach tandem in 13 playoff games (this is Coen’s first playoff game as a head coach, Lawrence is 1-2 in his postseason career), and Allen’s performances have been stellar (25 touchdowns, only 4 interceptions). Entering the Wild Card round and after an embattled, clumsy season, Buffalo is as healthy as it’s been all year. And offensively, they’re as buttoned up as they’ve always been, top-3 overall with top-4 rankings in EPA per pass and EPA per run. 

Defensively, it’s a mixed bag. Buffalo thrives against opposing quarterbacks, ranked 7th in defensive EPA per pass, but virtually anyone can run on them. Their 5.1 opponent yards per carry is bottom-3 in the league. Luckily for the Bills, Jacksonville isn’t exceptional on the ground, ranked 27th in yards per carry (4.0) and 20th in yards per game (115.1). 

Home teams typically have a big advantage, but matchup-wise, we see a strong case to be made for the visitors. Allen is one of the most talented players in the history of the NFL, and as a franchise, no team has more experience or more motivation to get further in the postseason than Buffalo. We expect this to be a tightly fought game and a teaser on Jacksonville is a fine option, but there’s only one way we can look in terms of a winner.

Bills vs Jaguars prediction: Bills ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.5.

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The San Francisco 49ers (12-5) withstood a bunch of injuries to key players this season, including QB Brock Purdy missing 8 games. The Niners had an opportunity at the top seed in the NFC before falling at home to the Seahawks last Saturday, 13-3. San Francisco fell to the 6th seed, getting set to face the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles (11-6). There were plenty of ups and downs for the Eagles, including 3 winning streaks of 3 games and a losing skid of 3 games, but they managed to grab the NFC East title for a 2nd straight season.

Philadelphia and San Francisco each finished with 10-7 ATS marks, while the Niners won 7 of 9 games away from Levi’s Stadium. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad beat the Seahawks and Rams on the road in the first 5 weeks, but the other 5 away victories came against teams with losing records. The 49ers posted a 2-4 ATS ledger in the underdog role, which included an overtime triumph over the Rams as a 6.5-point dog in Week 5. The Eagles compiled a 4-4 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field, including outright defeats to the Broncos and Bears. Philadelphia ranked 24th in yards per game (311.2), the 3rd-fewest for any playoff team after ranking 8th in this category during its Super Bowl run last season.

These teams last met in December 2023 when the Niners roughed up the Eagles at the Linc 42-19 as 3.5-point road favorites. Purdy threw 4 TD passes, while now-departed WR Deebo Samuel scored 3 times. In their last playoff matchup in the 2022 NFC Championship, the Eagles shredded the 49ers 31-7, but Purdy was hurt early and San Francisco was forced to run the ball basically the entire game. The Niners are 6-3 in the playoffs under Shanahan since 2021 and have not been bounced in their first game. Let’s back the 49ers with the points against the defending champs.

49ers vs Eagles best bet: San Francisco 49ers +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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There wasn’t much faith that the Bills would have their 5-year stranglehold atop the AFC East this season. The Patriots seemed like a long shot after a 4-13 record in QB Drake Maye’s rookie season, but New England brought in former LB Mike Vrabel as head coach. Vrabel helped flip that 4-13 mark to 14-3 and propel Maye to strong MVP consideration with 4,394 passing yards and 31 TD passes. New England overcame a 1-2 start, which included a mind-boggling loss to Las Vegas in the opener, to win 10 consecutive games before melting down in the second half against Buffalo. The strike against New England is 12 of its 14 victories came against non-playoff teams, as the Pats only beat the Panthers and Bills in consecutive games early in the season.

The Chargers travel cross-country to Gillette Stadium as QB Justin Herbert seeks his first playoff victory in 3 tries. After losses to Jacksonville and Houston in the last 3 seasons, Herbert and the Lightning Bolts try to break through after a 2nd straight 11-6 regular season. Los Angeles went through a 7-1 stretch from late October through Christmas before dropping the final 2 games to Houston and Denver. The Week 18 loss to the Broncos meant nothing since Herbert sat and the Chargers had no chance at winning the AFC West. In 4 games as an underdog with Herbert starting, the Chargers posted a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark, including a pair of victories over the Chiefs and a home win over the Eagles.

It’s interesting how the Patriots didn’t lose a road game, but dropped 3 games in Foxboro. New England finished 8-3 ATS as a favorite, as 2 of the non-covers came in close victories over Cincinnati and Atlanta. The argument against New England and its schedule is valid, but the Pats also defeated the Buccaneers and Ravens as underdogs, both of whom had a shot to win their divisions in Week 18. Herbert hasn’t won a playoff game, and they are going into a tough environment in the cold on Sunday night against a Patriots’ team that is hosting their its postseason game since 2019.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: New England Patriots -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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This is one of those spots in which you take the points because of narrative and brand visibility. The Spartans are still a college basketball mainstay and the narrative mill is already getting started. Sparty “bounced back” like it needed to on Monday with a 29-point rout of USC, who was ranked a week ago. This coming after the Spartans were shocked by the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who continue to defy gravity and remain undefeated.

Northwestern, unlike Michigan State, does not move the needle or carry as much market clout. The Wildcats are a middling Big Ten team, and while they have shown ability to make it to March, they are not a name brand like MSU. That almost certainly makes the Spartans overvalued here, and when you factor in that the narrative remains the Spartans getting back on track, the market will be keen to buy in.

The Cats, on paper, will look like a tough sell as an 8-6 middle-of-the-road team traveling to East Lansing against the ranked Spartans. However, Northwestern has lost 4 of its 6 games by 5 points or less against Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Virginia and at Butler. This is a team that is a 10-game winner already and has played a schedule that makes it battle-tested. Northwestern is scrappy and has shown it can hang around with anyone, making the double-digit allotment look really tasty.

Northwestern vs Michigan State prediction: Northwestern Wildcats +12 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +12.

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The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will travel to Champaign on Thursday night for a Big Ten game against the Illinois Fighting Illini. The Scarlet Knights have been one of the worst high-major teams in the country this season but are coming off a 3-point overtime win against Oregon on Monday night. That was their first victory over a high-major team this season, and they will be in for a significant test against the Fighting Illini. Illinois is ranked #9 at KenPom and should be able to take care of business against Rutgers.

The spread is currently set at Illinois -21.5 and I like the Fighting Illini to cover the spread because they are clearly the better team and should be able to dominate this game in multiple ways. Illinois has one of the best offenses in the country and can score at will on this Rutgers defense. According to KenPom, the Illini offense is ranked #3 nationally in adjusted efficiency and #9 in offensive rebounding percentage. Illinois is the tallest team in the nation and will likely abuse Rutgers on the offensive glass. The Scarlet Knights’ defense is ranked just #306 in offensive rebounding and could be in for a long night against the Illini big men. Let’s roll with Illinois -21.5.

Rutgers vs Illinois prediction: Illinois -21.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -23.

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Big Ten play continues on Thursday when the Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Eugene, Oregon to face the Ducks. Ohio State comes into this matchup off a home loss to undefeated Nebraska 72-69, despite the Cornhuskers making only 8-of-29 three-point attempts. The Buckeyes scored just 1.01 points per possession and were out-rebounded by the Cornhuskers 38 to 29. Meanwhile, the Ducks are coming off a road overtime loss at Rutgers (88-85). Oregon was efficient from the field, making 50% of attempts inside the arc and almost 41% of attempts beyond it, but the Ducks committed 17 turnovers and sent the Scarlet Knights to the free-throw line 34 times. They made 30 of those attempts. 

Usually the West Coast Big Ten team is at an advantage situationally when an East Coast team travels across the country for a conference game. While that angle is somewhat negated here since Oregon played in New Jersey on Monday, I still like the Ducks in this matchup. After all, this game tips off at 10:30 pm ET — which means the game will be played well past midnight on Ohio State’s body clock. Given the Buckeyes’ lack of depth (306th in bench minutes per KenPom), that could come back to bite them in the second half in Eugene on Thursday. Plus, Ohio State hasn’t exactly been trustworthy against the number (5-9) — and its offensive production dips when playing away from home. For reference, the Buckeyes’ effective field-goal percentage drops from 61.3% to 51.3% away from Value City Arena, and they score 10 fewer points per game. 

For what it’s worth, Big Ten home teams coming off a road loss are 108-82-2 ATS since 2022 — including 7-3 ATS in the last 10 and 3-1 ATS this season. Look for that trend to continue on Thursday, and for Oregon’s Nate Bittle to have a big game in the paint in the process.

Ohio State vs Oregon prediction: Oregon -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5.

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The Indiana Pacers enter this matchup in free fall, riding a league worst 13-game losing streak that has exposed just how far this group is from last season’s surprise run to Game 7 of the Finals. Outside of Pascal Siakam, who continues to produce at a high level with 23.7 points per game on 48% shooting, there has been little consistency. Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard have chipped in as secondary scorers, but Indiana’s offense lacks rhythm, depth, and reliable late-game execution. Defensive breakdowns have compounded the issue, and the Pacers have struggled to generate stops when momentum turns against them. Simply put, there are no clear signs that a turnaround is imminent, and confidence appears to be at a season low.

Charlotte, meanwhile, has quietly emerged as one of the league’s more intriguing teams over the past few weeks. Rather than relying on a single go-to scorer, the Hornets are thriving with a balanced, complementary approach. LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, and rookie Kon Knueppel are all averaging roughly 19 points per game, making Charlotte difficult to scheme against on a nightly basis. Knueppel, in particular, has vaulted himself into legitimate Rookie of the Year consideration with his efficiency and poise. This is the same Hornets team that just knocked off Oklahoma City on the road, proving they can compete with elite competition.

Although Charlotte is coming off a narrow loss to Toronto last night, situationally, this spot suits them well. The Hornets are an impressive 7-0 ATS on the second night of back-to-backs, even though they’re just 2-3 ATS as favorites this season. Against a Pacers team spiraling with no momentum, the Hornets’ balance, confidence, and situational edge make them the preferred side.

Pacers vs Hornets best bet: Charlotte Hornets -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.0.

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Donovan Mitchell took the night off, and the Cavaliers still delivered an important win over Indiana. Although they failed to cover the spread, Cavs fans will be happy with the win, as it shows their team is improving a lot these days with just 1 loss in 5 games. Next up is a tough road game in Minnesota, but with Mitchell coming back and Cleveland winning 5 of 7 games vs West opponents, the Cavs won’t go to Minny waiving the white flag of surrender. Last season, we saw Cleveland sweep the regular season series, that too will add to the confidence levels of this team going into Thursday’s game.

Anthony Edwards and his Timberwolves have put together a solid 3-game win streak, beating Miami (twice) and the Washington Wizards. The offense was clicking in all 3 of those games, but this team has excelled even more on the other end — holding opponents to just 109.3 points per 100 possessions, which is the 3rd-best defensive efficiency over the past 10 games. They do an excellent job in limiting opponents’ shooting from the perimeter – the T’Wolves allow only the 6th-fewest threes per game, with opponents shooting 35%. They’ve won 12 of 15 games vs East teams and are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last 5 overall.

It’s been an up and down season for the Cavaliers so far; are we ready to trust them on the road against one of the more consistent West teams? I’m sure they’ll put up resistance here, but their recent defeat to Detroit tells me they’re not yet close to being the team that dominated the East last year. I’ll be taking Ant Man and co. in this one.

Cavaliers vs Timberwolves prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This line reflects where these teams are trending, not just where they sit in the standings. Chicago enters this matchup on a 3-game losing streak, and the market is clearly signaling that Miami is the more reliable side right now. Chicago’s inability to sustain offense and defensive focus over 4 quarters makes them a high-risk option here. For this ticket to cash, Miami doesn’t need an offensive explosion. The Heat simply need steady execution and a handful of defensive stretches where Chicago’s offense bogs down. That scenario is far from hypothetical. The Bulls’ biggest issue all season has been scoring stability complemented by a defense that can get exposed.

Defensively speaking, Chicago has shown repeated lapses, especially against disciplined teams that can patiently hunt mismatches. Miami excels in exactly that area. The number implies Miami is clearly better, and the matchup supports that belief. If Chicago’s offense hits one of its familiar dry spells, Miami has a realistic path not just to cover, but to separate by margin.

Heat vs Bulls prediction: Miami Heat -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.

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The Detroit Red Wings were able to bounce back from back-to-back losses with a strong 5-3 win over the Senators on Tuesday night. It was a feel-good win for Detroit, as this team has struggled mightily against Ottawa in recent seasons. Now, head coach Todd McClellan’s club returns home to the Motor City to host the Vancouver Canucks on Thursday night. The Red Wings have been great on home ice all season long, owning a solid 14-8-1 record at Little Caesars Arena. The powerplay is operating at strong 27.7% clip at home, which ranks fourth in the league. Chances should be there for Dylan Larkin and company, as the Vancouver penalty kill ranks 25th in the NHL with a kill percentage of 77.1% on the road.

The Canucks could be in for a long second half of the season. Vancouver’s 37 points and minus-28 goal differential are both the worst in the Pacific division. They sent Quinn Hughes off to Minnesota in a trade that shook up the hockey world and made it clear that they are focusing on the future as opposed to the 2025-26 season. Having lost 4 games in a row and 6 of their last 7, the Canucks are in a tough spot. Take confidence in backing the Red Wings in front of their home fans.

Canucks vs Red Wings prediction: Detroit ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Islanders will face the Nashville Predators on Thursday. The Islanders are coming off a dominant 9-0 win over the New Jersey Devils. That was far from a normal performance from the Islanders, as they rank in the lower half of the NHL with 2.91 goals per game. Even with this low average for goals, they have made up for it by only allowing 2.70 per game. This defense has carried them to fifth place in the Eastern Conference. The Predators currently rank 12th in the Western Conference. Though they are in good form at the moment, though, as they have won 3 of their last 5 games.

Speaking of the Predators’ form, they have won 5 of their last 6 home games. In that home span, they are outscoring opponents 24-14. That gives them an average of 4 goals per game over their last 6 at home. On the other side, the Islanders have lost 4 of their last 5 away from home. In that 5-game span, they have been outscored 16 to 10. That means that the Islanders are averaging 2 goals per game through their last 5 away from home. This leads me to believe that the Predators will have a significant home-ice advantage today. Additionally, the Predators boast a better powerplay percentage and have a very good penalty kill percentage. Overall, I am taking Nashville to get the win and continue this hot streak at home.

Islanders vs Predators prediction: Nashville ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Winnipeg Jets losing streak has now reached 10 games. They are sitting dead last in the NHL after winning the Presidents Trophy just last year. This is not exactly the time they want to see Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the rest of the Edmonton Oilers coming to town. The silver lining in this is that they will have a significant advantage in net no matter who the Oilers start. Reigning Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck will get the start for the Jets, and if this streak is going to end, it is going to begin with him. Although lacking a great record, the Jets have been a much better team playing at home than on the road. Their record at the Canada Life Centre is 8-8-3 compared to 7-13-2 on the road. They are also going to need contributions from all parts of their lineup — not just their top line.

Shutting down Draisaitl and McDavid is no simple task, especially with the way they are playing right now. But why not put an end to the losing streak by containing 2 of the best players in the world? The Jets will win eventually, and I believe they can take down an Edmonton team that is shaky defensively. Give me the Jets in this one.

Oilers vs Jets prediction: Winnipeg ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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The College Football Playoff continues with a semifinal Fiesta Bowl matchup between the Miami Hurricanes and the Ole Miss Rebels on Thursday. The Hurricanes controversially (to some) made the playoff as the last team in, and they’ve proven they belong. Not only did they beat Texas A&M in College Station, but they handled the defending national champions in the Ohio State Buckeyes in the quarterfinals. While Miami was outgained by OSU, the Hurricanes held the Buckeyes to 1.9 yards per rush, 3/10 on 3rd downs, and forced QB Julian Sayin into 2 interceptions – notably Keionte Scott’s pick-6 on a bubble screen. The numbers really don’t even do it justice, as Miami dominated in the trenches. 

As for Ole Miss, the Rebels steamrolled Tulane in their opening playoff game without any issue and then managed to knock off Georgia in the Sugar Bowl 39-34 thanks to some late-game heroics by QB Trinidad Chambliss and questionable decisions by Kirby Smart. The Rebels outgained the Bulldogs 473-343 and held them to just 3/13 on 3rd downs, limiting them both on the ground and through the air. The Rebels also tallied 20 points in the final period to seal the win, which is surprising considering that is usually when the Bulldogs handle their business and pull away from their opponents. 

Ole Miss has the weakest defense of the remaining playoff teams, but I would argue some of that has to do with the pace at which the Rebels play offensively. The defense is still very good when compared to the average FBS team and seemed to improve down the stretch, as the Rebels entered the playoffs ranking 22nd in PPA per play, 5th in success rate and 11th in points allowed per quality drive. Admittedly, the schedule of offenses over that stretch wasn’t the best, but this unit has proven it can at least support the dynamic Rebels offense – a unit that was top-25 in the 3 aforementioned metrics over the course of the entire season. 

In order to be in position to win this game, Ole Miss has to withstand Miami’s pressure. The Hurricanes have the most lethal pass rush in the country and have wreaked havoc on their opponents throughout the season – finishing 9th in front-7 havoc generated outside of garbage time. That said, Chambliss has been just fine when facing pressure, completing 54.5% of his passes with 7 big-time throws and just 1 turnover-worthy play. His mobility enables him to evade pressure and avoid sacks, as shown by his top-40 rating in PFF’s pressure-to-sack rate in these situations. When opponents blitz Chambliss, his sack rate goes up, but he’s still a very effective passer, completing almost 62% of his passes with 14 big-time throws (3rd nationally) and just 3 turnover-worthy plays. 

In a game I project to be higher-scoring, I lean toward Ole Miss’ offense to provide a high enough floor to at least cover this number.

Miami vs Ole Miss prediction: Ole Miss Rebels +3.5 (-122) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.

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The 2nd round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 4 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Back on New Year’s Day, the 5th-seeded Oregon Ducks defeated Texas Tech to advance to this semifinal round, while the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers rolled through Alabama in impressive fashion just a few hours later. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Peach Bowl on Friday and advance to the National Championship game? It’s almost time to find out. 

You could convincingly make the case that these are the 2 best teams in the country at the moment, and while it’s hard to ignore what we’ve seen from the Hoosiers over their last few contests, the basic market fundamentals clearly point to Oregon as the side in this game at the current number. For starters, it’s clear that a wager on Indiana in this game is buying the Hoosiers at the peak of their market value, while the Ducks are still being priced like a lesser team than they were a few months ago, which I just don’t believe is the case. After all, Oregon was a 7-point favorite against Indiana at Autzen Stadium back on October 11, which would roughly make this a line move of over 8 points since the first meeting between these teams. While Indiana deserves to be priced as the best team in the field, I’ve certainly upgraded Oregon following its dominant showing against Texas Tech, a team that is significantly better than an Alabama team that essentially quit after Indiana took an early double-digit lead in the Rose Bowl.

There’s no doubt that the Ducks played their worst game of the season by some distance in that first meeting, and they still were tied midway through the 4th quarter. Now, Dan Lanning’s group appears to be playing its best football of the season on defense, and the offense can hone in on making the necessary schematic adjustments to fix what went wrong in the previous meeting. It certainly won’t be easy against Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers’ extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 3rd in points per drive) and the Indiana defense has also been a top-5 unit in the sport over the course of the season. However, given the fact that Oregon’s offense just had to face the best defensive front in the nation, I’m expecting a much better effort from the Ducks on the ground in this one, which was something they were able to do successfully for a decent chunk of the first meeting against Curt Cignetti’s defense.

Will Stein’s offense should also finally be getting Evan Stewart back for this game, which makes this the healthiest that Oregon’s deep group of pass-catchers (Dakorien Moore, Kenyon Sadiq, Malik Benson, Gary Bryant Jr., etc.) has been all season. With that in mind, as long as Dante Moore is able to play to his strengths and avoid making some of the mistakes he made in the first meeting, the Ducks should be able to grind out scoring drives and potentially even strike for some explosive plays downfield. Look for Oregon to empty the tank and pull out all the stops schematically on both sides of the ball in a game that could come down to the final possession.  

Oregon vs Indiana prediction: Oregon +4.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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