Parlays

The Oklahoma City Thunder head to Phoenix for Game 3 with a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Phoenix Suns, and through two games, they’ve completely dictated the tone with defense and tempo control. Game 1 was a blowout, with Oklahoma City winning 119-84 while holding Phoenix to just 35% shooting, showcasing elite perimeter pressure and rim protection. Game 2 followed a similar pattern, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 37 points in a 120-107 win, pulling away late after a competitive first half. Across both games, OKC has consistently forced turnovers, disrupted Phoenix’s offensive flow, and turned defense into easy scoring opportunities. Their ability to control pace and limit second chances has reinforced why they were one of the league’s most efficient and balanced teams all season.

As the series shifts to Phoenix, the Suns face a must win scenario, but the matchup trends continue to point toward a slower, more methodical game. Phoenix has struggled to handle OKC’s defensive pressure, particularly in the half court, where clean shot creation has been difficult to sustain. Turnovers have played a major role in fueling Thunder runs, preventing the Suns from establishing rhythm or pushing tempo. While playing at home could help stabilize their performance, playoff adjustments typically emphasize tighter rotations, increased physicality, and more deliberate offensive possessions rather than high scoring bursts. Oklahoma City, especially with a series lead, has little incentive to speed things up and should remain comfortable managing the game through efficient half court execution. With both teams likely settling into a controlled pace and Phoenix still searching for consistent offense, this sets up as another grind it out contest; especially with the referee controversies in game 2, expect Phoenix to tighten up on defense.

Thunder vs Suns Prediction: Under 214.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

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Few series illustrate the roller coaster that is the NBA playoffs more than what we’ve seen in this Eastern Conference matchup between the Knicks and Hawks over the last week. After a relatively routine Game 1 victory, New York has dropped back-to-back games by 1 point apiece, making the Knicks the first team in NBA history to lose by 1 point in regulation in consecutive playoff games. It happened in different ways too, as the Knicks blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead in Game 2 at Madison Square Garden while registering their lowest single quarter point total of the season (15) in that final period. We saw the inverse happen in Game 3, with New York rallying from a 19-point second half deficit, only to surrender a late 3-point lead and lose in the final seconds once again. Things can’t get much worse for New York on paper, but considering that it took a pair of extremely poor games for the Knicks to be trailing in this series, there is a reasonable argument to be made that we’ll see a bounce-back effort from Jalen Brunson and company in Game 4.

Not only are the Hawks coming off a game in which they shot 40% from beyond the arc, but Atlanta also got some unlikely shooting from the likes of Jonathan Kuminga, Dyson Daniels and even backup center Mouhamed Gueye. It’s reasonable to suggest that Atlanta won’t knock down 40% of its threes in Game 4, while the Knicks should be due for a bit of positive regression following a 10-of-35 effort (28%) from beyond the arc in Game 3. Furthermore, New York has been able to win the battle on the glass in each of the first 3 games, which bodes well for the shot volume battle in a game where every possession matters down the stretch. Head coach Mike Brown has stated that he’s going to change up the lineup combinations in this game, which should give his bench units a slight upper hand before Quin Snyder and his staff are able to read and react. As long as New York is able to keep dominating inside with Karl-Anthony Towns, while also making the necessary adjustments to make things a bit easier for Brunson and company on the perimeter, New York’s offense should lead the way en route to a series-tying victory.

Knicks vs Hawks prediction: Knicks ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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Aaron Gordon was a late scratch for the Nuggets right before Game 3 and it completely disrupted their gameplan, resulting in a 113-96 defeat. It was a wire-to-wire defeat, something we rarely see happen to Nikola Jokic and his team. Speaking of the 3-time MVP, he had a game to forget going just 7-for-26 from the field and dishing out just 3 assists. There is very little time to feel sorry for themselves, the Nuggets have to re-group quickly if they want to avoid going down 3-1 in this series. Gordon’s calf injury isn’t severe so he should be able to return for Saturday’s game, I don’t believe Denver stands a chance without him in this game.

Ayo Dosunmu and Jaden McDaniels stole the show for Minnesota in Game 2, combining for 45 points on 19-for-27 from the field. Rudy Gobert also had a dominant showing on defense, grabbing 12 boards and blocking 3 shots while also slowing down the Joker. Anthony Edwards appeared to have injured his knee in the 4th quarter and left the game, his status is up in the air for Game 4. When Ant Man doesn’t play Minnesota’s offensive rating drops by 2.6 points per 100 possessions, however their defense improves by 5.5 points. I’d take those numbers with a grain of salt, after all these are the Playoffs and you really want to have your best players at your disposal to give yourself the best chance of winning.

Denver cannot afford to lose here, going down 3-1 would be a disaster as only a handful of teams in NBA history have come back from that deficit. Aaron Gordon should return, this is exactly the situation Denver was in last season vs the Clippers Round 1 after 3 games. They responded with a massive win in Game 4, I expect them to play a methodical game and slow things down substantially on Saturday. After all this is a championship contender and moments like these are what define a champion. Back Denver to cover.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves prediction: Denver -1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Carolina Hurricanes, the top seed in the Eastern Conference, can become the first team to punch its ticket to the second round in Game 4 on Saturday afternoon in Canada’s capital city. Carolina has pushed the Ottawa Senators to the brink of elimination with three low-scoring victories in the first three games of the series. Carolina won 2-0 in Game 1 in Raleigh, 3-2 in double-overtime in Game 2, and 2-1 as the series shifted to the Great White North for Games 3 and 4. Carolina’s Logan Stankoven has been a beast, scoring in all three games despite the low-scoring series. If you’re hunting for an Anytime Goal Scorer for player props, Stankoven is your best bet on either side.

Ottawa looks to avoid a first-round sweep, similar to last season. It was down 0-2 coming back to Ottawa against the Toronto Maple Leafs, and it lost Game 3 in overtime. It won a pair of elimination games before finally succumbing in Game 6. So, at least the Senators have that experience to tap into. To make matters worse for the Senators, not only are they down 0-3 in the series, but Ottawa lost Jake Sanderson, its top defense, after a blow to the head. If he is in the concussion protocol, and/or unavailable for Game 4, it might be broom time for the Senators. However, let’s back Ottawa lightly. This is a prideful team, and it won’t be surprising to see a low-scoring win, as it staves off elimination for at least one game.

Senators ML (+105) at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

The Dallas Stars have taken a 2-1 series lead over the Minnesota Wild after a double overtime thriller in Game 3. It is safe to say Game 4 is a must-win for the Wild as going down 3-1 against the Stars with two of the three remaining potential games would be played in Dallas. This would be a very difficult deficit to come back from. The Wild are going to need a lot more from their superstar Kirill Kaprizov if they have any hopes of winning this series. Aside from Game 1, the Stars have looked solid. It is commonly said that special teams can carry you through a playoff run, and over the last two games the Stars are 5 of 13 on the powerplay, while the Wild are only 1 of 11. At the same time of this being a must-win for the Wild, the Stars will be equally as hungry to put a strangle hold on this series.

These two teams are very evenly matched, but the top end scorers on the Stars have been out-performing the top players on the Wild. There is good value on the Stars who have been playing well over the last two games. Give me the road underdogs in this one.

Stars vs. Wild prediction: Stars ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are looking to avoid a sweep by the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. It would be an understatement to say that the Penguins’ performance has been disappointing. They have struggled to score goals and have not received timely saves from Stuart Skinner. While he isn’t the sole reason they find themselves down 0-3, a strong goaltender is crucial in the playoffs, and they haven’t had that.

On the other hand, the Flyers have been as solid defensively in the playoffs as they were throughout the season, but they have also improved their scoring. The addition of Porter Martone to the lineup has provided the offensive boost they desperately needed. Both teams may start cautiously in this game, but as it progresses, we should see them open up.

Dan Vladar seems to be dealing with an injury; however, he does not appear to be at risk of missing this game. For the Penguins to succeed, they need to direct all their efforts toward the net and make Vladar’s job difficult. It’s possible we might see a few empty-net goals, so we’ll go with the Over and anticipate an exciting, high-scoring game.

Penguins vs Flyers Prediction: Over 5.5 (-120) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The Boston Red Sox are quickly making a case to be the worst team in baseball by the end of the season, as Friday night against the Baltimore Orioles was possibly their ugliest loss of the season. Poor hitting, poor pitching, and worst of all, inexcusable mental errors were the story of the night, which is the perfect trifecta of a dysfunctional team. After the Orioles recorded a four-run first inning, the game already felt like it was over, as Boston dropped its fourth-straight game against AL East opponents.

The Red Sox get Garrett Crochet on the mound on Saturday afternoon, which would normally be a cause for celebration for the fans as their ace takes the hill. However, the left-hander has unbelievably allowed 15 earned runs over his last two starts, which used to be a bad two-month stretch for Crochet.

The Orioles counter with Trevor Rogers, who normally would be the target of the bad pitcher narrative after giving up nine earned runs over his last two starts, but all of a sudden doesn’t look as bad in comparison to the guy standing across the diamond from him. The left-hander did have a good first three starts to the season, but has come back down to earth recently.

The Red Sox have been just plain ugly to watch, but it’s hard to imagine Crochet continuing his struggles, and their offense isn’t as bad as the product they are putting on the field. With everyone jumping on the Red Sox hate bandwagon, we’ll take them to bounce back and get a win here with their backs against the wall.

Red Sox vs Orioles prediction: Red Sox ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

The Chicago Cubs have won 10 games in a row. They are the primary reason the Phillies and Mets have such long losing streaks this month, and now they are bringing their magic to Hollywood and causing problems for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Indeed, last night after most of America was asleep, the Cubs hung a 9^th inning homer on the Dodgers to push that winning streak to 10 games. And yet, despite the long winning streak, you can get the Cubs at plus money today, and lots of people will be taking that. I think today is a day to be a naysayer, and I am taking the Dodgers on the Money Line.

Part of the oddity of this game is that both teams are missing their closers who are on the IL. This creates lots of issues in the late innings. The early innings of this game are tough too, as Colin Rea faces Roki Sasaki. Rea has been fantastic for the Cubs this year, but I have a hard time talking myself into backing the 35-yr old hurler. His stuff just isn’t that good, and the statistical correction is coming. But Sasaki has been an outright mess for LA. He walks too many people, isn’t missing bats, and has only once completed 5 innings. I wouldn’t blame you for taking the hot team here, but this is also about the best value you find for a Dodgers’ Money Line, so I’ll take it while it is there today.

Cubs vs Dodgers Prediction: Dodgers ML (-150) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It’s time for Saturday night baseball as the Philadelphia Phillies get ready to take on the Atlanta Braves. Philadelphia has been in a brutal slump, losing 10 straight games and 14 of its last 16. Atlanta, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction, riding a three-game winning streak while winning nine of its last 10. The Phillies have been unable to generate consistent offense during this skid, batting just .202 and averaging 2.6 runs per game in their last 10 games. As for the Braves, that’s not the case as they’re hitting .277 and averaging 6.1 runs per game in that same span. 

Taking the mound for the Braves will be Bryce Elder who is 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA. For the Phillies, Zach Wheeler will be making his first start of the season after recovering from surgery to remove a blood clot in his shoulder. This is great news for the Phillies as their pitching has been a nightmare all season long. However, getting Wheeler back won’t offset their offensive woes as the Phillies hold the third worst ERA in all of baseball this season with a 5.14 ERA. A big piece of that is their bullpen that holds a 4.66 ERA. The Braves have been terrific in that category, tied for first with a league best 3.11 ERA and their bullpen ranks among the league’s best with a 3.12 ERA. While it’s great news for the Phillies with Wheeler on the mound, I still don’t trust them in this matchup. Elder has been terrific this season and even if Elder gives up a few runs, the Braves are more than capable of taking advantage against this weak Phillies bullpen. At the end of the day, I don’t think the Phillies will snap its 10-game losing streak tonight with Wheeler making his first start of the year, which is why I’ll be backing the Braves as my best pick of the day.

Phillies vs Braves prediction: Braves ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.