Parlays
The Big 12 Championship will be the first one out of the gates on Saturday afternoon, slated to kick off at 11:00 am local time from Arlington, TX. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 11-1 entering this game and a lock for the playoffs, and their only loss came at Arizona State while missing their quarterback. BYU also comes in at 11-1, and the Cougars’ only loss came to the Red Raiders. Yet somehow, the selection committee seems to think BYU isn’t a playoff team if they lose this game. That makes no sense to me. BYU is really good, and definitely worthy of the playoffs; the problem here, though, is that Texas Tech is the perfectly wrong matchup for the Cougars, and the Red Raiders ought to win this game comfortably as a result. My BYU vs. Texas Tech best bet is the Red Raiders -12.5.
BYU is a strong, physical, bullying team. That has been very effective against everyone in the Big 12 except for Texas Tech. That is because Tech is bigger, more physical, and more of a bully. To me, this matchup is simple: these teams are similarly constructed, but Tech is just bigger and better at it. For BYU to pull the upset, it will likely take things like trick plays, funny bounces and turnovers, and special teams anomalies. Just lining up and playing? Red Raiders all day long. Did you know that Texas Tech is 11-1 against the spread on the year also? That is to say, they don’t just win; they cover. And more importantly, it means that the betting market consistently mis-evaluates this team and fails to recognize just how good they are. Folks, this team can win the whole thing if all their players stay healthy.
The first matchup went 29-7 to the Red Raiders. It was in Lubbock, College GameDay was there, Patrick Mahomes, the whole thing. The Red Raiders totally dominated the line of scrimmage, and the BYU freshman QB was overwhelmed. But here is the kicker—the Red Raiders didn’t even play well in that game. Their offense consistently stalled out in the red zone, and they kept kicking field goals that prevented this game from being a total route. Texas Tech is really good, and playing in Jerry World might as well still be a home game. I think they win by 2 touchdowns (and the committee should still let BYU into the playoffs).
BYU vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders -12.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Western Michigan has been the hottest team in the MAC, winning 8 of 9 and cashing spreads at a 6-2-1 clip. That streak has created a massive wave of market confidence, and bettors continue piling onto the Broncos. But the line tells a different story: despite all that momentum, WMU is laying less than a field goal in the MAC title game. That’s the first indicator the market doesn’t fully trust them in this one.
Miami (OH) comes in off dominant wins over Ball State and Buffalo, but what happened before those results is pivotal. The RedHawks suffered a blowout loss against Toledo and a loss at Ohio, where the market was backing them in a revenge spot. From a distance, Miami looks like a team that can’t grapple with any decent opposition that the MAC has to offer. That makes WMU laying less than a field goal appealing. And then there is what really matters: last year’s embarrassment in this exact championship spot. The RedHawks were routed, and the market remembers that — but this is their chance to correct that. Western Michigan is priced at its ceiling, while Miami is undervalued. This is the chance to move in hard on the RedHawks. I’m backing them to win the MAC.
Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan prediction: Miami (OH) ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Amid all of the conference realignment and transfer portal chaos, the SEC Championship consists of a matchup that college football fans know all too well. On Saturday, the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide will battle for a conference championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where the Bulldogs just played last week against Georgia Tech. As it stands, no matter who wins this game, Alabama and Georgia will have accounted for 11 of the last 12 SEC champions, and this will be the 4th time these two programs have met for a conference title in that span.
The last time Alabama met Georgia in this spot, the Tide knocked off the #1 Bulldogs, which ultimately put the Tide into the then-4-team College Football Playoff and booted the ‘Dawgs out. Since then, the Tide and the ‘Dawgs have met twice in a regular season setting, both of which resulted in Alabama wins under Kalen DeBoer. As you probably know, Kirby Smart is just 1-7 SU against Alabama since he took over as the head coach in Athens.
I picked Alabama to win the SEC Championship (and the National Championship) back before the season started, and I have no reason to jump off the boat now – even with the Tide putting me through the ringer seemingly every week. When Alabama went into Athens and snapped Georgia’s 33-game, nearly 6-year home winning streak back in September, the Bulldogs were laying 2.5 points. Fast forward to this upcoming matchup, and you will see Georgia is favored by that same margin. Well, on the surface it looks the same, but being favored by 2.5 points on a neutral would mean oddsmakers have Georgia around a 5.5-point favorite – give or take a half-point or so – if this game was played in Athens this weekend. I simply disagree with that, as I have this game much closer to a pick ‘em on a neutral.
There’s not much to pick apart with these teams that you don’t already know. Simply put, these are two of the best teams in college football on both sides of the line of scrimmage. By the numbers, Georgia has been more efficient offensively over the last month and some change, but the Bulldogs have played a worse collection of defenses in that span compared to the Tide. However, on the opposite side of the ball and against a similarly mediocre collection of offenses, Alabama has the better efficiency metrics of late. For reference, the Tide are top-5 in PPA per play and points allowed per quality drive since Week 10, which includes top-15 marks on standard downs and passing downs, as well as against both the run and the pass. As a cherry on top, the Tide are top-15 in havoc generated over that span, and they are slightly better at preventing touchdowns than the Bulldogs on the same amount of red-zone trips allowed this season.
It might be beneficial to wait for a potential 3 to pop in the market, but if one does appear, it won’t last very long. All things considered, I’ll lean to Alabama at the current price.
SEC Championship prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide +2.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (+100) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.
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The top 2 teams in the country will meet in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday night when the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers clash at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. These are the only undefeated teams left in the country, so whoever wins this game will be the lone undefeated team going into the CFP as the #1 seed. The loser will still likely get a first-round bye, so other than the official moniker of being Big Ten Champions, there isn’t much at risk for either of these teams if we’re being honest with ourselves. Though, I am still of the opinion that winning a conference championship is a significant milestone that should continue to be celebrated.
That said, there’s an argument to be made that this could be a flat spot for the Buckeyes. Having gotten the Michigan monkey off its back, Ohio State could fall victim to the dreaded hangover here, especially now that its sights are likely set more on repeating as national champions than winning the Big Ten title. Of course, I am speculating, but given the fact that this is Indiana’s first-ever Big Ten Championship appearance on the gridiron, motivation might be slightly higher for the Hoosiers here – though, again, I will admit I’m splitting hairs when I say that.
These resumes are very similar in terms of strength of schedule, but Indiana has the most impressive win of the bunch having beaten the Ducks in Oregon back in early October. On the field, both teams have been similarly efficient offensively. Ohio State and Indiana are both top-15 in scoring, top-25 in total offense, top-2 in third-down conversion rate, and top-10 in both PPA per play and success rate on the season as a whole. Those numbers haven’t dropped off much recently, as the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers are top-10 in PPA per play, top-5 in success rate, and top-10 in points scored per quality drive outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks.
It’s much the same on the other side of the ball, where the Hoosiers and the Buckeyes are top-10 in a vast majority of key season-long defensive metrics including scoring, total defense, and red-zone touchdown rate allowed. Like on the offensive side, that production hasn’t dropped off much in recent weeks, though Ohio State has been slightly better on a down-to-down basis – particularly against the pass.
If you’re asking me to pick which one of these teams is most likely to go on to win the national title, I would say Ohio State. However, in this particular game, considering how even these teams are on paper and the potential, ever-so-slight motivational/situational advantage for the Hoosiers, I will lean to Indiana to keep this game within the number. After all, Indiana has slowly crept up my power ratings all year long to a point where the Hoosiers have been within 3 points of the Buckeyes for over a month. As such, I have OSU around a 2-point favorite in this neutral-site game, and will trust my projections with this pick.
Big Ten Championship prediction: Indiana Hoosiers +4.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.
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The Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers battle for the ACC Championship less than a month removed from a regular season matchup that saw the Cavs dominate 34-17, limiting Duke to a whopping 42 rushing yards. While the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team twice” might hold up in some cases, Virginia won the first meeting comfortably, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a similar result. Duke squeaked into this game on the fifth tiebreaker and have allowed 33.3 points per game to their final 6 opponents of the season in a 3-3 stretch. On the contrary, the Virginia defense has produced results consistently this season behind a strong pass rush that averages 2.5 sacks per game.
The Cavaliers rank top-30 in both success rate and net points per drive defensively. Duke has found itself in some shootouts this season, but proved to struggle against the Virginia front seven last time out. While the Virginia defense has been solid all year, it’s tough to say the same for a Duke unit that ranks 112th in defensive success rate and 114th in quality drive rate allowed. The Blue Devils primarily struggle against the pass which doesn’t bode well against Chandler Morris and co. If Morris can limit the turnovers — 2 of his 7 total INTs came against Duke — then Virginia has shown they are built to handle this Duke squad. I’ll take Virginia to cover the spread and claim the ACC title.
ACC Championship prediction: Virginia Cavaliers -4 over Duke Blue Devils (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.
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Boise State will look to build off its impressive 102-76 win over Chaminade as they get ready to face Butler on Saturday afternoon. Boise State is averaging 78.4 points per game this season while shooting 44.4% from the field. Butler, meanwhile, is putting up 90 points per game and shooting 50.2% from the field.
The Bulldogs enter with a 3-game winning streak, and they are hoping Finley Bizjack delivers another big performance. Bizjack dropped 29 points, 2 rebounds and 4 assists against Eastern Michigan — bringing his season average to 19 points per game. The Bulldogs don’t just have the edge offensively; they are also going to create a lot of problems for Boise State in grabbing rebounds. Butler is averaging 48.6 rebounds per game, and the Broncos will need to find a way to prevent Michael Ajayi from crashing the glass; he is pulling in 12 rebounds per game. Boise State simply doesn’t have the talent offensively and doesn’t have an edge defensively, so this game has the potential to get out of hand early. Look for Butler to control the tempo, dominate the boards and cruise to its fourth straight win against a much weaker opponent.
Boise State vs Butler prediction: Butler -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.
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Wisconsin welcomes in-state rival Marquette as it looks to build on a recent 85-73 win over Northwestern. The Golden Eagles are coming off a win of their own, defeating Valparaiso 75-72 in overtime. Marquette has struggled to start the season, averaging 81.4 points per game while giving up 74.2. The Badgers are slightly better, averaging 86.9 points per game while allowing 73.5.
The Badgers will lean on their top scoring duo, Nick Boyd (20.9 ppg) and John Blackwell (19.9 ppg), to set the tone. Marquette’s defense has been inconsistent, but Wisconsin’s offense has also shown stretches of uneven play. Marquette will lean on Chase Ross (20.3 ppg) and Nigel James Jr. (12.3 ppg), and perimeter shooting that is capable of keeping them in the game. Wisconsin is allowing opponents to shoot 35.8% from deep this season, and that’s something Marquette will look to take advantage of in this matchup. Despite its up-and-down start, Marquette has kept all of its losses within single-digits aside from a matchup with Indiana. Look for the Golden Eagles to give it their all and keep this game close — making them my best bet of the day.
Marquette vs Wisconsin prediction: Marquette +11 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Maryland Terrapins will travel to Iowa City on Saturday for a Big Ten Conference game against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa is 0-1 in conference play following its blowout loss to Michigan State on Tuesday night, but I expect a bounce-back performance on its home floor against a less talented Maryland team. The Terrapins will open conference play on Saturday and are projected to start 0-1 as +13.5 underdogs. This is a big number, but I see Iowa covering the spread.
Iowa did not look good in its Big Ten opener, but I expect a much better performance in game 2. Maryland has not looked good against stuff competition this season and I do not see the Terps finding their way against a very well-coached and disciplined Iowa team. Maryland lost to Georgetown by 10, Gonzaga by 39 and Alabama by 33. The Terrapins’ defense has looked vulnerable in numerous games this year, as they gave up over 100 points to Gonzaga and Alabama. According to KenPom, Maryland’s defense is ranked #247 in effective field-goal percentage, #279 in 2-point percentage and #187 in 3-point percentage. On Bart Torvik, their defense is ranked #235 in adjusted defensive efficiency against top 100 opponents. I do not see them being able to stop this Iowa offense.
Iowa’s offense struggled against Michigan State but has been efficient in other games this year. The Hawkeyes play at a very slow pace but are led by one of the best guards in the country, Bennett Stirtz. Their offense is ranked #17 in effective field-goal percentage and #16 in 2-point percentage. Their offense should have success in this one and they should be able to win the turnover battle, as their defense is one of the best in the country in turning opposing teams over and Maryland has issues taking care of the ball. I’m backing Iowa to cover.
Maryland vs Iowa prediction: Iowa -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -14.
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The resistable force meets the movable object when the 1-11 Tennessee Titans make the trip to Cleveland to take on the 3-9 Browns, and the disastrous season should continue for the visitors. It’s been a rough first season for rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who has not thrown more than 1 touchdown pass in any game this season and has exceeded 200 passing yards just once in his last 4 games. He now comes up against a vicious Browns defense that has allowed the 3rd-fewest passing yards while posting the 2nd-most sacks in the NFL. Given the Titans have allowed the most sacks this season, Ward should be running for his life throughout this matchup. Tennessee’s offense has been totally anemic, scoring more than 20 points just once in its last 7 games, and given how stingy this Cleveland D has been, it’s hard to see the Titans having much success at all putting points on the board.
The Browns should win this one, but will they be good enough on offense to cover? They managed just 8 points against the 49ers last week, but Shedeur Sanders has at least been serviceable in his 2 starts while Quinshon Judkins has been hot in recent weeks. That spells bad news for a Titans defense that has allowed the 2nd-most rushing touchdowns, while through the air they’re allowing the 2nd-most passing yards per attempt. Tennessee has allowed 25+ points in 5 of their last 6 games, and this matchup should see the Browns moving the chains with a lot more ease than the Titans. Take Cleveland to win and cover.
Titans vs Browns prediction: Cleveland Browns -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.
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It will be a showdown in the AFC East when the Miami Dolphins visit the New York Jets in Week 14 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Once left for dead with head coach Mike McDaniel all but fired at 1-6, Miami has completely turned things around with 4 wins in its last 5 games. I expect that momentum to continue, so my Dolphins vs Jets pick is for the visitors to win and cover. The Dolphins failed to cover in last week’s victory at New Orleans, but they probably should have won by a lot more than 4 points — squandering almost the entirety of a 16-0 lead in the 2nd half.
It is true that the Fins are not very good on the road, but it’s not like MetLife Stadium is a difficult place to play. The Jets’ only home wins are over Atlanta and Cleveland, and they are 3-9 overall. It would not be out of bounds to argue that they should be — or at least could be — 0-12. New York beat Atlanta 27-24 this past weekend despite getting dominated in all phases of the game other than special teams. It scraped past Cleveland 27-20 while gaining 169 yards of total offense. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s squad outlasted Cincinnati 39-38 when the Bengals did not have Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, Miami’s 4-1 stretch includes a 30-13 rout of Buffalo. Although Tua Tagovailoa is not the most trustworthy quarterback, I will roll with him, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle over anyone and anything the Jets can offer.
Dolphins vs Jets best bet: Dolphins -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.
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The two oldest rivals in the NFL have plenty on the line this Sunday at Lambeau Field. The Bears (9-3) lead the NFC North heading into Week 14 and will visit the Packers (8-3-1), who are playing their third consecutive division foe. Green Bay has passed the first two tests, handling Minnesota at home, 23-6, followed by a 31-24 triumph at Detroit as 3-point underdogs on Thanksgiving. Now, the Packers look for the trifecta to pass the Bears for first place in the division.
Chicago has been impressive in Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach, overcoming an 0-2 start to win 9 of the last 10 games. During this span, the Bears have won 6 games by 5 points or less, but put together a strong road effort in the 24-15 Black Friday victory at Philadelphia as 7.5-point underdogs. The Bears have covered 3 straight games and are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 opportunities in the underdog role. These teams will meet twice in the next 3 weeks, and both matchups last season were decided by a combined 3 points. Green Bay won at Chicago, 20-19 as 6-point underdogs, but the Bears knocked off the Packers in the season finale at Lambeau, 24-22 as 10.5-point dogs.
Two of the worst offensive efforts for Green Bay came at home against Carolina and Philadelphia in consecutive losses in early November. The Packers combined for 20 points in those defeats, but Green Bay has averaged 27.0 ppg in the past 3 victories. Green Bay went through a 1-7 ATS slump before picking up covers against Minnesota and Detroit. In last Thursday’s win over the Lions, the Pack were paced by QB Jordan Love’s 4 TD passes, his 6th multi-touchdown performance of the season. Interestingly enough, Love has not thrown a touchdown pass in Green Bay’s last 3 home games. Let’s look at backing the Packers here to pass the Bears for first in the NFC North with a home victory.
Bears vs Packers prediction: Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.
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James Madison Dukes -23.5 over Troy Trojans (-110)
James Madison finished its season with 10 straight victories and is clearly the best team in this conference. After rolling to a 49-point victory over Coastal Carolina a week ago, the Dukes are massive favorites at home against a Troy team that is probably punching above its weight at this point in the season.
James Madison should have clear advantages on both sides of the ball in this game, and Troy’s already middling offense can’t be expected to score against an excellent Dukes defense that leads the nation in success rate allowed, to go along with top-10 marks in EPA per play and points per drive allowed. On the other side, James Madison’s offense has been rolling since turning to Alonza Barnett III at quarterback from a full-time perspective, so let’s roll with the Dukes to win by a huge margin at home.
RaRa Thomas (TROY) 3+ receptions (-114)
While I don’t foresee Troy scoring all that much in this game — especially with the weather forecast projecting very cold and potentially windy temperatures — there should be opportunities for the Trojans to make some hay in the passing game, potentially in garbage time if things get out of hand. That’s where RaRa Thomas comes in, as the veteran wide receiver should be able to get some separation against this James Madison secondary. Thomas has racked up at least 3 receptions in 4 of his last 5 games played, and if Troy is in a game script in which it needs to throw the ball consistently, there should be plenty of targets to spare for the Trojans wideout.
Wayne Knight (JMU) anytime TD (-290)
To close out our Sun Belt title game SGP, let’s back James Madison running back Wayne Knight to find the end zone for yet another game. Knight has proven himself to be the most dynamic athlete on this team, and he’s been able to be the bellcow for a Dukes offense that is absolutely rolling of late. The veteran running back has picked up touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games while also racking up 9 total touchdowns on the season. Knight should be in line for the most carries on the team, which makes him an easy candidate to get the ball around the goal line on Friday.
The Kennesaw State Owls hit the road to battle the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in the Conference USA Championship at AmFirst Stadium in Jacksonville, Alabama. The Owls kept their bid alive for the title game by holding off Liberty 48-42 in overtime in the regular-season finale, covering as -2.5 favorites. They were just 1-2 against the spread in the final 3 road games of the season, including a 35-26 loss at Jacksonville State on Nov. 15 as -3.5 favorites. Kennesaw State deserved a better fate in that game, posting 32 first downs to just 18 for Jax State. It also had 579 total yards of offense to 451 for the Gamecocks. However, the Owls turned it over 4 times; the Gamecocks didn’t have any miscues.
Quarterback play was the difference, as Kennesaw’s Amari Odom threw 3 picks while running for 51 yards and a score. Jacksonville State’s Caden Creel threw for 137 yards and rushed for 127 to go along with a pair of touchdowns. RB Cam Cook also ran for 132 yards and a TD, giving the Gamecocks a pair of 100-yard rushers. The venue will be a factor in this game, as the Gamecocks are hosting. Will Kennesaw turn it over 4 times again? Probably not. However, the Gamecocks will benefit from playing this game at home.
Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State prediction: Jacksonville State +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.
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The Sun Belt championship will be decided this Friday when the Troy Trojans take on the James Madison Dukes. Troy finished its season with a record of 8-4 and a conference record of 6-2. The Trojans finished in first place in the Sun Belt West after a 28-18 win over Southern Mississippi during the last week of the season. Quarterback Goose Crowder threw for 285 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception in the victory.
Meanwhile, James Madison finished its season 11-1 with a conference record of 8-0. The Dukes won the Sun Belt East, finishing their season with 10 straight wins. Their final win of the season was a 59-10 beat down against Coastal Carolina. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III threw for 207 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception in the win. The Dukes’ only loss this season came back in the beginning of September at Louisville at a score of 28-14. James Madison is ranked as the 25th-best team in the country heading into this weekend, and still has a small chance to make the College Football Playoff. However, the Dukes are going to require some help and a dominant win this weekend.
The conference championship game is set to be played at Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg, VA, and the forecast call for a cold one. The weather is projected to be 30 degrees around kickoff and will only get colder the longer into the night this game goes. I don’t expect the cold to bother the Dukes in this game. Barnett is a veteran quarterback in this program, as the junior has thrown for more than 5,000 yards in his career. If conditions are not the best for throwing the football this weekend, Barnett will be able to rely on his legs (as evidenced by his 459 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns this season). Also paired with Barnett is running back Wayne Knight. Knight was able to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing this season, and he has totaled 8 touchdowns.
Troy’s rushing game has been significantly less effective this season than James Madison. This team is not built for the poor conditions, with their head coach, Gerad Parker, stating that the team doesn’t even have gear for colder weather. While I do know this was obvious sarcasm, Troy is coming into this game off a short week to play against a high-powered offense in cold weather conditions. Look for JMU to make a statement in an attempt to claim its spot in the CFP.
Sun Belt Championship prediction: James Madison Dukes -23 over Troy Trojans (-110) is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Arguably the most consequential game of the weekend comes in New Orleans, where the AAC title game will take place on Friday between North Texas and Tulane. With both teams currently ranked ahead of James Madison in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, this game essentially functions as a play-in game for the right to claim the Group of 5 slot in the playoff. Both teams are currently in the midst of excellent seasons, and these are a couple of offenses that should see success in this one, as evident by the sky-high total. However, even though Tulane is going to be an attractive home underdog for many, I can only look toward North Texas as my preferred side on Friday.
This is a difficult game to handicap given that both teams have coaches that are leaving each program for Power 4 jobs after the season. Setting that fact aside, Tulane is not a team that I’ve been overly impressed with in big spots this season, even as the Green Wave have overachieved compared to preseason expectations. Theoretically, Tulane should be able to score on this North Texas defense, but the Mean Green have a strong pass defense and the Green Wave are just 86th in rushing success rate, which is how you can have success against North Texas. On the other side, the Tulane defense is certainly not the strength of the team, and the Green Wave will have a difficult task on their hands against Drew Mestemaker (29 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions this season) and a Mean Green offense that is elite in all areas. In fact, North Texas is a top 5 unit in success rate, EPA per play, early downs EPA, quality drives created and points per drive. This is a team that can beat you on the ground and through the air, which bodes well for a matchup against a Tulane team has not fared well when stepping up in class against quality offenses this season, as we saw against the likes of Ole Miss and UTSA. And even in a win over Memphis last month, Tulane’s below average pass defense (97th in passing success rate allowed, 86th in 3rd down success rate allowed) struggled to slow down the Tigers, to the tune of 368 passing yards allowed. With that in mind, as long as Mestemaker plays a fairly clean game, there should be plenty of avenues for North Texas to put up plenty of points and force Tulane’s offense to play from behind and consistently score to keep up — a role that the Green Wave have struggled with this season. I’ll back the visitors to outscore the hosts and win the AAC, capping off a storybook season in the process.
North Texas vs Tulane prediction: North Texas ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
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When people hear the name Boise State, especially in mid-major football, there’s an automatic assumption that the Broncos will thrive in championship settings. They have earned that reputation over decades, and because of it the market routinely prices Boise with an inflated premium. That’s exactly what we’re seeing here. UNLV enters the Mountain West Championship as the side everyone insists “shouldn’t be here” because of how chaotic the 4-way tiebreaker scenario was. Add in the Rebels’ close calls this season — they barely survived Air Force, Miami (OH), Utah State and even Idaho State — and the public instinctively leans toward Boise State.
But the number tells a different story. Boise State beat UNLV by 25 earlier this season as a 13-point favorite. Now, on a neutral field with a championship on the line, the line is shorter and the Rebels are only small underdogs. That signals respect for UNLV and hints that oddsmakers anticipate a different type of fight this time around. UNLV’s offense gives them a live-dog profile, and Boise State hasn’t consistently validated the premium attached to their name this year. Forget the points — I’ll take UNLV straight up.
UNLV vs Boise State prediction: UNLV ML (+145) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Vegas Golden Knights will be kicking off a 3-game road trip in New Jersey as they take on the Devils. The Golden Knights come into this game riding a 2-game winning streak and they are 5-2-3 in their last 10 overall. The Devils, meanwhile, are on a 3-game skid. Both teams are elite when it comes to scoring goals. The Golden Knights are averaging 3.04per game while the Devils are averaging 3.00. In 2 of the Devils’ last 3 outings, the over is 2-1. For the Golden Knights, it is 3-1 in their last 4 overall. Both of these teams boast top-10 powerplay units in the NHL. New Jersey is operating at 24.3%; Vegas is clicking at 23.5%.
Goaltending has been somewhat shaky for the Devils this season. Jacob Markstrom is slated to get the start, and he comes in with a 3.55 GAA and .875 SVP. The top-end talent on both of these teams — which includes Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier — should be able to produce enough offense to push this game over the total.
Golden Knights vs Devils prediction: Over 6.0 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The San Jose Sharks and Dallas Stars are set for a Friday night showdown at American Airlines Center in Dallas. The Sharks are looking to get back on track following a lopsided 7-1 loss to the Capitals on Wednesday. The good news is that San Jose has been great at bouncing back over the last few weeks, losing back-to-back games just once since the end of October. The Sharks fell 6-0 to the Avalanche last Wednesday but were able to promptly rebound with a 3-2 win over the Canucks 2 days later.
The Stars are coming off a 3-0 shutout victory over the Devils on Wednesday. However, holding the Sharks’ offensive attack in check could prove to be a difficult task in this one. The Sharks rank fourth in the NHL with a road powerplay percentage of 27% and have potted 5 powerplay goals over their last 4 games. Macklin Celebrini has put up elite numbers, while Will Smith is enjoying a breakout campaign. San Jose doesn’t have the offensive depth that Dallas does, but it should be able to put up a fight in this one. I’m backing San Jose on the +1.5 puck line.
Sharks vs Stars prediction: San Jose Sharks +1.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Utah Mammoth were able to snap a 4-game losing streak with a dominant 7-0 win over the Ducks on Wednesday night. It was a much-needed victory for Utah, which struggled mightily throughout the month of November following a hot start in October. Could that win spark a hot streak for head coach Andre Tourigny’s squad? Tourigny has found himself on somewhat of a hot seat over the last week or so given Utah’s struggles. But his team has a solid chance to find the win column again in this matchup against the Canucks.
Adam Foote’s first season as Vancouver’s head coach is not going well. The Canucks find themselves at the bottom of the Western Conference standings with 23 points in 27 games. They have won just 1 of their last 7 games and have scored only 4 total goals over their last 3 contests. Utah is a stingy defensive team that makes life difficult on opponents; it is allowing a league-best 24.4 shots per game. The Mammoth should be able to hold the Canucks in check in this one. I’m backing Utah on the road.
Mammoth vs Canucks prediction: Utah Mammoth ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The San Antonio Spurs may be missing Victor Wembanyama, but they are still 7-2 since their big man went down as they prepare to visit the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday night. A sample size of 9 games is large enough to confirm that San Antonio is just fine — at least in the short term — without Wembanyama, so my Spurs vs. Cavaliers pick is for the visitors to cover a +5.5 spread. How are the Spurs getting by despite being undermanned? Well, a whopping 7 players on the roster — not even including Wembanyama — are scoring in double-figures. De’Aaron Fox leads the way at 25.0 ppg, while Stephon Castle comes in at 17.5 ppg and Devin Vassell contributes 15.7 ppg. Rookie Dylan Harper, the #2 overall pick, is doing a little bit of everything with 13.6 ppg, 3.5 apg, 3.0 rpg and 1.1 spg. San Antonio gets after it on the defensive end of the floor, too, boasting 6 guys who average more than a steal per game.
Cleveland’s 2025-26 campaign has been unspectacular relative to the standards it set for itself last season. The Cavs are 13-10 and have dropped 4 of their last 5 contests. Much unlike last year, they are not even dominant in their own building — sporting an 8-5 such record in advance of Friday’s tilt. Head coach Kenny Atkinson’s crew had lost 2 in a row at home, including to Portland 122-110 on Wednesday. Center Jarrett Allen (finger) and guard Darius Garland (toe) are both out. In their current state, the Cavs probably can’t cover a relatively sizable spread against a very good opponent.
Spurs vs Cavaliers prediction: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.
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There seems to be no end in sight for the issues the Indiana Pacers are suffering from this season. For the 2nd consecutive game they allowed 135 points and lost, this time around to the Denver Nuggets. Containing Jamal Murray looked like a mission impossible on Wednesday, more issues could be ahead on Friday against a Bulls team that’s loaded at the guard positions. Indiana did win the first meeting 103-101, but now the game is being played in the Windy City which is a problem considering the Pacers are 0-13 SU in 13 road games.
Chicago hasn’t had much luck over their last 5 games, but they’ll try to end that losing streak tonight at the United Center where they’re 6-3 SU on the season and have won 13 of 18 games. I feel like it’s only a matter of time until the Bulls turn things around, there’s too much talent on this roster for that not to happen. This team plays the 2nd fastest pace in the league and that’s something the Pacers won’t be too comfortable with given their injury situation.
At 6-3 ATS the Bulls have been relatively reliable in home games. I know it’s not ideal backing a team that’s on a 5-game losing streak, but the Pacers have been pretty bad this season and this is an ideal chance for Chicago to bounce back at home. I’ll take the Bulls.
Pacers vs Bulls Predictions: Chicago Bulls -5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Suns have slowly gotten used to life with no Devin Booker. Monday night saw them upset the Lakers 125-108 on the road behind 33 points from Dillon Brooks, snapping the Lakers’ 7-game win streak. This is just the beginning of a brutal 7-game stretch in which the Suns will face Houston, Minnesota, OKC, Golden State (twice) and the Lakers again. In the 2nd half of December, we’ll have a clear picture as to whether or not this team is headed towards the play-in tournament. They’re double-digit underdogs on Friday against a Rockets team that beat them pretty easily 114-92 in the first meeting some 10 days ago.
Kevin Durant did not participate in that win, but he is back in the line-up and just had a productive 24 points and 8 assists in the win over Sacramento. At 14-5, the Rockets are chasing the Lakers for the 2nd spot in the West, and this team has exceeded all expectations meshing together extremely well since the arrival of KD. The scary part is they will only get better once Dorian Finney-Smith returns from injury to boost the defense. This team excels in the rebounding department, allowing the least rebounds per game.
This is a battle of two contrasting styles. Phoenix relies heavily on the three-ball to stay in games, while the Rockets just put up 121 points on the Kings despite connecting on just 5 threes. The question is, can the Suns hang and make this one interesting? I feel like they can. Dillon Brooks enjoys playing the villain role, you just know he and KD will go at each other at one point in this game. The Suns have covered in 6 straight road games and in 11 of 14 overall. I’ll back them plus the points here.
Suns vs Rockets Predictions: Phoenix Suns +11.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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North Texas Mean Green -2.5 over Tulane Green Wave (-110)
If you read my early-week preview for the upcoming conference championship weekend, then you know where I stand on the side in this matchup. My handicap is relatively simple here. Because these defenses are similarly mediocre, I’d prefer to side with the more reliable offense – and that is North Texas by a decent margin. The Mean Green have been absolutely electric offensively this year. They are 2nd nationally in PPA per play – just behind Vanderbilt – and they sit 4th nationally in success rate only behind Indiana, Vanderbilt, and Ohio State.
As the top scoring offense with top-5 explosivity, the Mean Green can score from anywhere on the field, and they’ve been nails on their quality drives and red-zone appearances. In fact, North Texas is 2nd in the nation in quality drives sans garbage time and is the best team in the land in points per quality drive at 5.2. The Mean Green have even improved that mark of late, as they are just short of 6 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line over the last 5 weeks. Not to mention, they lead the country in red-zone trips and red-zone touchdown rate (56/70), having failed to score any points in just 4 of those 70 trips inside the opposing 20, and are top-5 in turnover margin.
Don’t get me wrong, Tulane’s offense has been above average, but North Texas as the offensive line advantage and the quarterback advantage with Drew Mestemaker – who has almost double the amount of big-time throws and half the turnover-worthy plays as Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff. Given the stark advantage when it comes to ATS results and the perceivably more reliable and less turnover-prone offense, UNT is my pick to win and cover – punching its ticket to the CFP.
Wyatt Young (UNT) 100+ Receiving Yards (-130)
This line has inched up all week, and for good reason. Wyatt Young has been one of the best receivers in the country this year. He has the best PFF receiving grade in the country among qualified wide receivers and has insane production with less usage than those around him in the rankings. For reference, Young averages almost 20 yards per reception and is 3rd nationally in receiving yards despite having 40 and 26 fewer receptions, respectively, than the only 2 receivers with more yards than him.
Moreover, he’s demanded at least 7 and as many as 12 targets in 6 of his last 7 games, accumulating at least 102 yards in 5 of them – all from Week 8 on. I don’t expect any of this to change in this game against Tulane, as the Green Wave defense is weakest in the secondary. In fact, Tulane is 119th in passing yards allowed per game, as well as outside the top 115 in passing downs PPA and PPA per pass allowed since Week 10.
Instead of chasing inflated lines as the week progresses, I’ve settled on the alternate receiving yards prop of 100+ for the 2nd leg of our North Texas vs Tulane Same Game Parlay.
Jake Retzlaff (TUL) Anytime TD (-290)
Retzlaff carries turnover potential whenever he drops back to pass. However, as the team leader in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, he is an integral piece of Tulane’s ground game. In fact, his 14 ground touchdowns are tied for 5th nationally among non-running backs this season.
The matchup for Retzlaff as a runner is fairly good considering North Texas has struggled with mobile quarterbacks this year. The Mean Green have surrendered a rushing touchdown to FBS opponents more often than not, so Retzlaff is in good position to find the end zone as a runner in what figures to be a high-scoring affair in Friday’s AAC Championship.
Boise State Broncos ML over UNLV Rebels (-176)
Given the fact that Madsen is expected to be back in the lineup for Boise State, this line looks a bit short given where it was at in their previous meeting. However, instead of backing Boise State on the spread, I’ll take the Broncos on the money line in order to avoid a potential backdoor opportunity for UNLV. Back when these two teams played back in October, the Broncos were laying nearly 2 touchdowns at home and still covered the spread with ease in a 56-31 drubbing of the Rebels, a game in which Boise State averaged nearly 10 yards per play.
While I don’t anticipate a similar margin of victory on Friday, there’s little reason to think that the Broncos won’t be able to score against this very poor UNLV defense (112th in success rate allowed), especially with their quarterback back in the lineup. I’ll back Boise State on the blue turf for yet another year.
1st Half Under 30.5 (-125)
While the first meeting between these teams featured plenty of fireworks, I’m a bit more bullish on the under on Friday. However, I’d rather steer clear of the full game total given the potential for late scores in a game that could come down to the wire. With that in mind, the 1st half under is currently being priced a few points too high at FanDuel, which is where our SGP is being placed.
Most other shops in market have this total listed around 28.5, and there could be some value in grabbing a few extra points around a key number. After all, it’s not a guarantee that Madsen picks up where he left off a month ago, and both teams in general should look to lean on their rushing attacks given that cold temperatures and rain are expected on Friday evening.
Jai’Den Thomas (UNLV) anytime TD (-140)
To close out our Mountain West title game SGP, let’s back UNLV running back Jai’Den Thomas to find the end zone for the 13th time this season. The Rebels are no stranger to putting up a ton of points, and UNLV’s offense did just fine in this building back in October, even in a losing effort. Thomas was a part of that scoring, as the Rebels bellcow in the backfield recorded a touchdown in the loss, one of his 12 scores on the ground this season. The Broncos are not known for their rush defense, so it wouldn’t shock me at all if Thomas found the end zone for the 5th time over his last 7 games played on Friday.
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