Parlays

The New York Yankees have suddenly dropped four straight games and now sit two games back in the AL East standings, making this a much-needed bounce-back spot against the Baltimore Orioles. New York will turn to Will Warren, who has been one of their most reliable starters this season, entering at 4-1, with a 3.46 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts across 41.2 innings pitched. For Baltimore, they’ll hand the ball over to the lefty Trevor Rogers who is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, striking out 27 in 30.1 innings pitched. 

The Yankees bullpen has been reliable for most of the season, but lately, it’s been a different story. The Yankees offense has also cooled off recently, averaging 3.6 runs per game, batting .209 in their last seven games. For the Orioles, they’ve been slightly better, averaging 4.1 runs per game and hitting .214. The Yankees have the advantage on the mound in this matchup with Warren, and the last time he faced the Orioles back on May 1st, he allowed just one earned run and struck out nine in 6.1 innings pitched. Rogers has struggled on the mound this season, and even though the Yankees offense has cooled off over the last week, this is a great spot for them to get back on track. Look for New York to get to Rogers early on, and for Warren to eat up enough innings to limit the time on the mound for the Yankees bullpen. 

Yankees vs Orioles prediction: Yankees ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable up to – 180.

The Boston Red Sox host the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday. Both teams were off on Monday, so they head into this series fresh. Both teams also got off to a slow start and fired a manager early, which is an interesting angle on this series. The Red Sox have been running hot over the past couple weeks, but they dropped 2 of 3 over the weekend to the streaking Rays. As for the Phillies, they have now won 4 straight series. On Tuesday, it is hard to ignore the pitching advantage for the Phillies, and that has me on the Philadelphia Money Line.

Zack Wheeler is obviously still building back up, but his pitching count is nudging higher each start, and he has posted two consecutive quality starts. He looks like he is just fine as he works back from injury. On the other side is Brayan Bello. Bello was brilliant in his last outing, spinning 7 innings of 1-run baseball against the Tigers. But that was only his 2nd useful start in 7 attempts this season. I cannot bring myself to trust him, especially not with Wheeler on the other side. Let’s also remember that Johan Duran, aka the Durantula, returned over the weekend, which has put the Philly bullpen back in order as well. That’s a lot of advantages on the bump. Give me the Phillies.

Phillies vs Red Sox best bet: Phillies ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable to -160.

I understand that backing an 0-4 pitcher like Erick Fedde feels counterintuitive on the surface, but this handicap is about context, pricing, and understanding what the market is actually saying. The Kansas City Royals have been one of the worst road teams in baseball, sitting just 6-12 SU away from home. That is not the profile of a team that should be favored on the road against anybody. And yet, despite the market likely gravitating toward fading Fedde based purely on his record, the line remains tight. That’s telling.

This is where you have to move beyond surface-level optics. Fedde’s presence alone naturally pushes the Chicago White Sox toward underdog territory, but Kansas City’s starter, Stephen Kolek, is far from a proven commodity himself. There is no overwhelming pitching advantage here, despite what the records may imply. More importantly, the burden of proof rests on Kansas City. Until the Royals demonstrate they can consistently win away from home, laying road juice with them is difficult to justify. Their road form has been unreliable, and backing teams with those profiles at a premium is rarely a profitable long-term approach. At worst, this game projects as a true coin flip. In that situation, taking the plus money with the home side is simply the prudent move.

Royals vs White Sox prediction: White Sox ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.

The Montreal Canadiens will be trying to take a commanding 3-1 lead in their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Buffalo Sabres when these 2 teams tangle again in Montreal on Tuesday night. Having won consecutive contests by a combined margin of 11-3, the Habs have a ton of momentum heading into Game 4. I think they should be able to maintain it, so my Sabres vs Canadiens pick is for the home team to prevail. As a 6-2 scoreline in Game 3 suggests, the Canadiens were by far the superior side on Sunday. They produced more shots and more hits, won more faceoffs and compiled fewer penalty minutes. The Sabres scored just 1 goal in 5-on-5 situations. Montreal found the back of the net 4 times in 5-on-5, and none of its goals came on an empty net. It was simply legitimate domination from start to finish.

Perhaps even more alarming for Buffalo is that it got clobbered in Game 2 at home even though it came up with more shots and more hits while taking fewer penalty minutes. That would indicate that Montreal is getting more high-danger scoring chances and also better goaltending. And that would be true. Jakub Dobes has amassed a 2.13 goals-against average and .918 save percentage during these playoffs. The Sabres, on the other hand, have a decision to make regarding goalies Alex Lyon and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Neither one inspires much confidence. Luukkonen started the first 2 games of round 1 against the Bruins, during which he was saddled with a dreadful 4.19 GAA and a .821 SVP. UPL hasn’t been seen on the ice since. Lyon came out hot when he got his opportunity, but he has allowed a ridiculous 9 goals in his last 2 starts. The Habs have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matchups and 8 of the last 11. Seven of those 8 victories have come by multiple goals.

Sabres vs Canadiens Game 4 prediction: Montreal ML (-134) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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The Anaheim Ducks aim to maintain their momentum in Game 5 against the Vegas Golden Knights. After securing a 4-3 victory, they have tied the series at two games apiece. However, winning at least one more game on the road remains a significant challenge. Throughout the season, Anaheim has struggled to generate offence on the road, as evidenced by the first two games of the series. While they managed to steal Game 2, they faltered in Game 3, losing 6-2. Goaltending continues to be a concern, but there is a positive note: Lukas Dostal performed well in his two starts at the beginning of the series.

Vegas is the stronger team on paper and has shown they can get contributions from all players in the lineup. Mark Stone is questionable for Game 5, and although his absence would affect both the offence and defence, this is a veteran group that knows how to succeed. The Golden Knights need to increase their shots on goal, as it’s only a matter of time before some find the back of the net. This game is likely to be closely contested, but we expect Vegas to take care of business in regulation and secure the win.

Ducks vs Golden Knights Game 4 prediction: Golden Knights 3-Way ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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