Parlays

Thursday's March Madness Sweet 16 parlay

7:30 PM ETTomorrow

7:30 PM ET

Iowa @ Nebraska · Money Line

Iowa Win

Reasoning

Our Analysis

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It wasn’t easy for either team to advance to the Sweet 16, but now the #9 seed Iowa Hawkeyes and the #4 seed Nebraska Cornhuskers are set to face off, with the winner advancing to the Elite Eight. Iowa pulled off a huge upset over the #1 seed Florida Gators in a thrilling matchup. Alvaro Folgueiras knocked down a three-pointer with four seconds left to give the Hawkeyes a 73-72 lead that ultimately sealed the deal. Iowa shot 51% from the floor and did a great job limiting Florida on the glass, which played a key role in the upset. As for Nebraska, they held on against Vanderbilt, with Braden Frager hitting a layup with just two seconds remaining to secure a 74-72 victory.

The Hawkeyes will need Bennett Stirtz to figure things out in this matchup against Nebraska. Stirtz struggled against Florida, scoring just 13 points while going 0-for-9 from three and 5-of-16 from the field. These are two Big Ten opponents who are familiar with one another. During the regular season, Iowa defeated Nebraska 57-52 on February 17, while Nebraska got revenge on March 8 with an 84-75 overtime win. Both teams rank among the best defensively in their conference, with Nebraska allowing 65.8 points per game and Iowa close behind at 66. The Cornhuskers do hold a slight rebounding edge (37 to 32), but Iowa has been more efficient offensively, shooting 48.9% from the field compared to Nebraska’s 46.6%. This game could go either way, but based on recent form, Iowa looks like the more complete team. The Hawkeyes showed resilience and composure in their win over Florida and are peaking at the right time. Give me Iowa to win a close one and punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.

Iowa vs Nebraska prediction: Iowa ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

9:45 PM ET

Arkansas @ Arizona · Point Spread

Arizona -7.5

Reasoning

Our Analysis

The West region features the #1 Arizona Wildcats vs the #4 Arkansas Razorbacks. Arizona pulled away from Utah State to get here, while Arkansas had to battle the whole way to put away a feisty High Point squad. This line originally opened at -9.5, and that would be the largest tournament deficit John Calipari has ever faced. Since then, it has pushed back down to -7.5, and that is taking us into hammer territory. I think Vegas had this right in the first place, and this is a spot where we can bet a #1 seed while fading the public, which is backing the Hogs at a 70% clip at the time of this writing. Give me Arizona.

Arkansas plays super fast and has one of the best guards in the country in Darius Acuff Jr. What people fail to recognize with Arizona, however, is that they have a top-3 defense, according to both KenPom and Torvik. The Hogs will still score, but the Arizona defense is a championship-level difference-maker. Arkansas attacks the rim a ton, but Arizona ranks #2 in the country at defending the rim. That’s a matchup problem for Arkansas. The Wildcats make very few mistakes, and they have talent in waves. Eventually, it will overwhelm Arkansas, I suspect. I am hammering this at -7.5, and playing it out to the original line of -9.5.

Arkansas vs Arizona prediction: Arizona -7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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Andrew Wilsher

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