Parlays

Game 4 sets up as a classic market overreaction spot. Cleveland entered Game 3 as a short road favorite (-2.5 at tip-off) and was blown out by a desperate Toronto team trying to avoid this series getting pushed to the brink, 126-104. That result has predictably flipped sentiment, with bettors now gravitating toward the Raptors after finally seeing them break through. However, the adjustment from oddsmakers tells a different story—Cleveland is now laying a bigger number on the road. That’s not accidental.

This is where the zig-zag comes into play. Toronto’s Game 3 win was fueled by urgency, but this is the kind of set-up where the market is now betting the Raptors a game too late. The time to back Toronto was on Thursday, and the shift in the oddsmaker’s pricing all but says it. However, what the market sees is more points with a team that just orchestrated a rout and is overreacting as a result. The market overall often chases the most recent outcome, and this feels like a textbook case. Now, value swings back to Cleveland, whose offensive ceiling and ability to respond after losses make them the sharper side. Lay the points.

Cavaliers vs Raptors prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The San Antonio Spurs got the job done in Game 3 with a 120-108 win over the Portland Trail Blazers without Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama exited Game 2 with a concussion and was ruled out for game three. His status for Game 4 is still up in the air.

The final score of Game 3 does not show the difficulties the Spurs faced without their star. The Spurs trailed Portland 84-68 with 4 minutes left in the third quarter before they made their comeback. The Spurs tied the game at 93 with 9 minutes left, and finished the game on 27-15 run. Stephon Castle took over as the primary scoring option with 33 points, and Dylan Harper added 27 off the bench. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers could not capitalize on good shooting from Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson. Holiday was 5-of-9 from three, while Henderson finished 5-of-10 from deep. Deni Avdija shot the ball poorly, only going 3-of-15 from the field, but he finished going 12-of-16 from the free throw line.

This game could be hard to predict early with Wembanyama’s status unknown, and we may not find out if he’s playing until closer to tip. I am going to jump in early on the Spurs with the hope that he does suit up for Game 4. Wembanyama was hopeful he could start Game 3, but ended up being downgraded to “Out” on game day. Even if the Spurs decide to be careful and rest Wembanyama, I still believe the Spurs can win and cover this spread. Game 3 felt like the Trail Blazers took their best shot at the Spurs, and they failed in a deflating fashion. Neither Holiday or Henderson are known as sharpshooters from the perimeter, and they gave Portland a combined 10 threes. The backcourt duo’s shooting is in line for regression in Game 4.

The Spurs played 18 games this season without Wembanyama, and they won 12 of them. Portland allowed the Spurs role players to gain the confidence that they can now win in the postseason without Wembanyama as well. I like the Spurs to win and take a commanding 3-1 series lead with the assumption that Wembanyama may sit this game out, and if Wembanyama does end up playing for San Antonio, I’ll have the spread at a good number.

Spurs vs Trail Blazers prediction: San Antonio Spurs -5.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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The Celtics are back in front following an 8-point win in Game 3 over the Sixers, and now they look to deliver the knockout punch on Sunday as the teams lock horns yet again. Jayson Tatum continued to shine with 25 points and 7 assists, while Jaylen Brown added 25 points and 7 rebounds. Boston had the game pretty much under control the entire time; the three-ball was also falling as they knocked down 20 of 47 shots. In fact, the three-ball has been the major differentiator in this matchup — the only reason the Sixers were able to pull off the upset in Game 2 is because they got red-hot from three, and there’s not much you can do in today’s NBA when that happens.

For Philly, Game 4 is basically the game of the season. A loss sees them go down 3-1, a hole from which only a handful of teams in NBA history have clawed back. What is concerning if you’re a Sixers fan is the fact that they’ve yet to receive a proper shooting game from Tyrese Maxey, who is making just 39.2% of his shots from the field. It’s quite obvious that he is the focal point of the Celtics defense, and the Sixers are searching for answers because of it. One answer that could help them out massively would, of course, be the return of Joel Embiid. The big fella is still recovering from his appendectomy; his status has been upgraded to a game-time decision ahead of Sunday’s clash.

Boston has seemingly found the blueprint to winning this series. Knock down a bunch of threes, keep Philly’s best player under control and let others try to beat you. Even if Embiid is inserted in the lineup here, I don’t believe he’ll make an instant impact after not touching the court for the past 2 weeks or so. I’ll give Boston another shout and back them to cover in Game 4.

Celtics vs 76ers Predictions: Boston Celtics -7.5 (-110) is available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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The Buffalo Sabres will take on the Boston Bruins in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Playoff Series on Sunday. The Sabres currently lead the series 2-1, outshooting the Bruins in all 3 games so far. Even more impressive is that the Sabres have held the Bruins to 6 goals through 3 games, which is exactly the type of playoff defense the Sabres were hoping for. On the season, the Sabres offense averaged 3.45 goals per game, which put them 5th in the NHL. They also finished the regular season 5th in shooting percentage. Defensively, the Sabres have the 3rd-best save percentage with their goaltenders stopping 89.9% of the shots they face.

The Bruins are hoping for a bounce back game, but that seems unlikely given the defensive struggles. The Bruins allow the most power play opportunities while yielding 3.01 goals per game. In fact, their 76.9% penally kill and 64 power-play goals allowed are among the worst in the NHL, and yet, all 8 of the Buffalo goals have been 5-on-5. At some point, the Sabres are going to break through on power plays, which means this will be an even bigger uphill battle for Boston.

Overall, I expect a sloppy showing from the Bruins, especially defensively, paving the way for another Buffalo win

Sabres vs. Bruins Prediction: Buffalo Sabres ML (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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Game 4 between the Colorado Avalanche and Los Angeles Kings is here, as the Avalanche look for the first-round sweep. The veteran Kings clawed their way to a playoff spot, but they are on the verge of rendering it meaningless. Can they give their home crowd at least 1 playoff win? Our Avalanche vs. Kings prediction will offer our own view.

Los Angeles hasn’t been terrible per se, but their sound defense (2.67 goals against average) and excellent special teams (100% penalty kill, 23.1% power play) just haven’t been enough. This isn’t much of a surprise considering the Avalanche were always expected to win this series, no matter how well the Kings played on that end of the ice — as their offense is highly questionable at best. That has been the story of this series, and I expect it to continue in Game 4.

Colorado hasn’t been all-worldly this series, but they know how to win, which makes all the difference. Playing on the road is no issue for them, as shown by their multi-goal win in Game 3. This three-game winning streak from Colorado has come with a 0% power play and just 3 combined points from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Martin Necas. That just proves what a deep, well-balanced and well-coached team this group is. The Kings won’t go down easy, but I see the Avalanche completing the sweep. Take Colorado on the money line for our Avalanche vs. Kings prediction.

Avalanche vs. Kings best bet: Colorado Avalanche ML (-170) available at time of publishing. Playable to (-195).

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The Edmonton Oilers are looking to regroup against the Anaheim Ducks in Game 4 of the Western Conference Quarterfinals. As expected, the goaltending has been subpar, but the lack of attention to detail on defense has been even more concerning. Edmonton has allowed the most goals in the playoffs by a significant margin. While Connor Ingram shares some of the blame, there have also been numerous mistakes by the players in front of him. The Oilers need to improve their defensive play if they want to keep this series competitive.

Anaheim has capitalized on those mistakes, amassing a high number of shots and goals. They have generated a significant volume of high-danger scoring chances, and the Oilers have had no answer for it. The Ducks have performed above average at home throughout the season, and that success has continued into the playoffs. Lukas Dostal has allowed 4 goals in each of the first 3 games, and that trend could persist tonight.

The total for the game is set at 7.0, and it may increase before puck drop. Despite the high number, considering both teams’ ability to generate offense against questionable goaltending, I anticipate taking the over and hoping for another high-scoring game.

Oilers vs Ducks prediction: Over 7.0 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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