Parlays

We have a battle at the bottom of the Big 12 standings on Wednesday between the Baylor Bears and Cincinnati Bearcats. The Bearcats just endured a rough week in Arizona, dropping lopsided games to both the Wildcats and Sun Devils. They are now 2-5 in conference play and they will have to win on Wednesday without one of their key players, McDonald’s All-American freshman Shon Abaev. Baylor, on the other hand, has been ravaged by a nasty schedule while falling to 1-6 in conference play. The Bears will need to start stealing some road games to have any shot at postseason play. This is a tough game to take on the spread, but I do like this game to be a classic Big 12 rock fight and stay under the 147.5 game total.

Baylor is a good offense with a terrible defense, while Cincinnati is a bad offense with an elite defense. This game is probably going to grind down to a low-scoring affair, and it would be a shock if it gets past 70 points per team. Baylor has faced 3 elite defenses (top 15) in conference play: Houston, Kansas and Iowa State. The Bears scored 55, 62 and 60, respectively, against those teams. Cincinnati is also a top-15 defense, and Baylor is likely to have a similar outcome. The inefficient offense of the Bearcats (203, per KenPom) should suppress points on the other end. This is likely to be a 70-66 type of game, one way or another. Give me the under.

Baylor vs Cincinnati prediction: Under 147.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 145.5.

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There are several layers working in favor of St. John’s here, and the surface numbers only tell part of the story. At first glance, the ATS records might steer bettors toward Butler — the Bulldogs sit at 12-8 against the number while St. John’s is 9-11. Pair that with a double-digit spread and it’s easy to see why taking the points looks attractive. But once you shift from season-long trends to game environment, the picture changes quickly.

Butler has struggled away from home, going just 1-4 straight up on the road. St. John’s has been a different team in Queens at 9-2 SU. That home-court edge isn’t cosmetic; the Red Storm feed off tempo, defensive pressure and crowd energy that tends to overwhelm visiting teams lacking depth. History reinforces the matchup edge: St. John’s has won 9 of the last 10 meetings and covered 8 of them, and they notably weren’t laying this kind of number in those games — a sign the market’s rating of SJU has risen. Strength of schedule is another separator. KenPom ranks St. John’s schedule 19th nationally compared to Butler’s 206th. The Red Storm are battle-tested and still own the better record. When you combine home dominance, series control and schedule strength, the larger spread looks justified. St. John’s has the profile to control this game from start to finish.

Butler vs St. John’s prediction: St. John’s -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.

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At first glance, DePaul checks every “public favorite” box. The Blue Demons have won 4 straight in the series, carry the better overall record and have been a far more reliable cover team at 13-7 ATS compared to Georgetown’s ugly 6-14 mark. Add in the fact that the Blue Demons are catching points and it feels like a simple click. That’s exactly the kind of setup that deserves a second look, because surface trends often mask context.

The biggest split in this matchup is venue. DePaul is just 1-4 straight up on the road, while Georgetown has been solid at home at 7-4 SU. That difference matters more than season ATS records because college teams tend to be highly environment-dependent. Travel, unfamiliar rims and hostile crowds hit teams that rely on rhythm and comfort — which fits DePaul’s profile. Schedule context also shifts perception. According to KenPom, DePaul’s non-conference strength of schedule ranks 362nd — meaning many of its wins have come against soft opposition. Georgetown, despite inconsistency, has faced stronger competition and is battle-tested in tougher spots. Put it together and the line actually makes sense even if it appears otherwise. DePaul’s numbers are inflated by favorable conditions, while Georgetown’s struggles are already priced in. In a home setting against a road-vulnerable opponent, the Hoyas are the side with the more trustworthy foundation.

DePaul vs Georgetown prediction: Georgetown -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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Sentiment and narrative. The market gobbles that stuff up. And tonight, this contest is all about those concepts. The prodigal son returns home, as LeBron James makes another trip back to where it all started. The place where he led the Cavs to their only NBA Championship. The market is backing LeBron and the Lakers because they are investing in the sentiment and narrative. He comes home, gets a win and moves on. As outright underdogs, it’s hard not to bite on King James and company. But that’s the point. The oddsmakers want action on Los Angeles because the storyline and namesake attract attention.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, do not have the same clout. Cleveland is one of the worst teams against the spread this season at 18-30. The Cavs have floundered on the big stage against the Knicks on Christmas Day in nationally-syndicated showcase games like this one, and their profile overall is exactly the type of side that the market would fade. The set-up is by design. Peel back the marketability of the Lakers — most notably LeBron — and combine that with Cleveland actually showing some profit, and suddenly the Cavaliers are bigger favorites. The Cavs have played a much tougher schedule than the Lakers in terms of strength, with opponents averaging a win percentage above .500, while LA’s sits 19th slightly lower than .500. Here is the other kicker: the Cavs expeted win percentage sits close to .600 at .587, while the Lakers have been punching above their weight with an EWL of .502 despite sitting 28-17. Where are we trying to go with this? Cleveland has played a tougher schedule and is legit. The Lakers have been catching bounces against cupcakes. The Cavs make the most of those ingredients tonight. Let’s lay the 3-pointer.

Lakers vs Cavaliers prediction: Cleveland -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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To say that it has been a rollercoaster of a season for the Hawks would be an understatement. Things have somewhat stabilized over the past week or so with 3 consecutive wins over the Grizzlies, Suns and Pacers. Granted, only one of those three teams is headed toward the postseason, but Atlanta will take any kind of winning streak at this point. Zaccharie Risacher and Kristaps Porzingis remain out ahead of Wednesday’s trip to Boston, with Atlanta hoping to even the regular-season series. The first meeting saw them give up 22 threes to these Celtics; that’s definitely the main thing they need to correct ahead of this game.

Boston continues to occupy the second spot in the East, but there is very little room for error with the likes of the Knicks, Raptors and even the Cavaliers lurking behind them. You can’t really criticize the Celtics too much even when they lose to teams like Chicago, as they did a couple of games back. This is one of the biggest overachievers this season in the NBA, playing extremely well without its best player, Jayson Tatum. The C’s have found the perfect blend of 3-point shooters and defenders, pairing them up with a closer in Jaylen Brown — who is having a career year as the #1 option on offense.

It will probably all come down to how well the Celtics execute their 3-point shots. Atlanta has done a solid job defending the perimeter during this 3-game winning streak, with opponents shooting only 31.7% from deep. Whether or not the strength of schedule had something to do with that remains to be seen, but this game in Boston will tell us a lot about Atlanta. I’m ready to give the Hawks the benefit of the doubt and back them as road underdogs to cover.

Hawks vs Celtics prediction: Atlanta +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Call this how to spot an overreaction. Charlotte has quietly built momentum — multiple recent wins and offensive efficiency spikes — and the Hornets’ recent ball movement has improved their efficiency, too. Ask Philadelphia about that one on Monday — a game in which the Hornets were favored by and no one gave them a chance . Charlotte certainly has handled its business and now — despite a losing record on the road — it is laying a price. The question is should it be doing that, or is that hyperbole due to recent results? We are of the latter position.

It’s easy to pick on Memphis, as it has shown defensive inconsistencies — particularly because Memphis thrives in fast possessions. Indeed, if the Grizzlies struggle to gain any form of countenance in voluminous possessions, they can get buried quick. But do the Hornets have the wherewithal to withstand the surge in less-than-friendly confines? The Hornets are no lock here, and to see them favored is strictly on the bounds of what they have done recently but not what is on the court this evening. We dare not say this is a matter of the wrong side being favored because both teams overall play losing basketball. It is, however, safe to say that Charlotte should not be road chalk. Not yet. Grizzlies outright.

Hornets vs Grizzlies prediction: Memphis ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Rangers and New York Islanders are set for an in-state battle on Wednesday night at UBS Arena. These teams have met twice this season, with the Islanders claiming victories of 5-0 and 2-0. That’s right; the Rangers have yet to score a single goal through 120 minutes of action against the Islanders this season. However, there is hope for more offensive success in this one. The Rangers have scored 3 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 games and are averaging 3.5 goals per game in that span. They have also been better offensively on the road than at home, as their goals per game average jumps from a league-low 2.09 at home to a solid 3.10 on the road.

The Islanders are coming off a 4-0 win over the Flyers and will be playing just their second home game over their last 10 contests. They will be fired up to be back on home ice, as they were shut out 5-0 by the Sabres the last time they played in front of their home fans. With that in mind, look for the Islanders to come out firing. Igor Shesterkin is still on IR, and both Jonathan Quick and Spencer Martin have struggled between the pipes for the Rangers. Quick owns a less-than-ideal .884 save percentage, while Martin’s is even lower at .864. Look to the over in this matchup.

Rangers vs Islanders prediction: Over 6 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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The Philadelphia Flyers are looking to bounce back after suffering a 4-0 loss on home ice against the New York Islanders, as the Under (5.5) cashed. Despite that, they are still 2-1-1 in the past 4 games, and the Flyers have averaged 3.2 goals per game in the past 6 outings. It is expected that the Blue Jackets will use the shaky Elvis Merzlikins in between the pipes, so it could be a highly productive game for the Fly Guys as they look to bounce back from the blanking.

The Blue Jackets are coming off a wild 8-5 victory over the previously red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning. The offense has been Jekyll and Hyde for the Jackets lately, as they won 1-0 in the previous game against the Dallas Stars on Thursday while losing 4-1 on home ice against the Ottawa Senators prior to that. The Blue Jackets have been so confusing. Last season they split the 4-game series with the Flyers. Still, the offense has averaged 3.8 goals in the past 7 games despite those low-scoring totals against the Stars and Senators. I’ll go high on the total for this Flyers vs Blue Jackets best bet.

Flyers vs Blue Jackets prediction: Over 6.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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The Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators face off as part of a quiet night in the NHL. These intra-conference opponents met earlier in the month, when Colorado absolutely dominated in an 8-2 win. Ottawa will aim for revenge, but that will be difficult because Colorado is truly elite. Here is an Avalanche vs Senators prediction.

Following an unlikely run in which the Avs went 1-2-2 in 5 games, they have stormed back and are coming off a dominant 4-1 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs. They then had short travel to Ottawa, along with 2 full days of rest. I expect them to have their legs and be hungry to start another incredible streak. Meanwhile, Ottawa halted its own skid (1-2-1) in a 7-1 thumping of the Vegas Golden Knights, but this is a challenge I do not expect the Sens to handle. They have won just 12 of 26 home games this season and 10 of 23 against Western Conference. Colorado scores at the league’s highest rate of 3.94 per game, and their third-best penalty kill of 84.1% is nearly 12% better than Ottawa’s third-to-last rate of 72.2%. The Avalanche have a star-studded roster, even with the absence of captain Gabriel Landeskog and Devon Toews. For this Avalanche vs Senators pick, let’s take the NHL’s best in Colorado to win in regulation.

Avalanche vs Senators prediction: Colorado 3-way ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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