Parlays

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have been fantastic in the 2nd half of the season, there is no denying that. New coach Liam Coen clearly has edges as an NFL head coach, both culturally and from a play-calling perspective, and it’s changed the franchise for the better. Since the start of November, their only loss was at the Texans, a barnburner of a contest where they were stymied by an all-world Houston defense, but they have been relatively flawless since. 

Lawrence is top-6 or better in many passing categories, including yards (4,006) and touchdowns (29). Through the air and on the ground, they’re consistent and productive, ranked 12th in EPA metrics. Their defense showed perhaps the most surprising improvement, up to 3rd overall in EPA metrics, including top-3 marks against opposing quarterbacks. 

The difference in this game is experience. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have been a QB-coach tandem in 13 playoff games (this is Coen’s first playoff game as a head coach, Lawrence is 1-2 in his postseason career), and Allen’s performances have been stellar (25 touchdowns, only 4 interceptions). Entering the Wild Card round and after an embattled, clumsy season, Buffalo is as healthy as it’s been all year. And offensively, they’re as buttoned up as they’ve always been, top-3 overall with top-4 rankings in EPA per pass and EPA per run. 

Defensively, it’s a mixed bag. Buffalo thrives against opposing quarterbacks, ranked 7th in defensive EPA per pass, but virtually anyone can run on them. Their 5.1 opponent yards per carry is bottom-3 in the league. Luckily for the Bills, Jacksonville isn’t exceptional on the ground, ranked 27th in yards per carry (4.0) and 20th in yards per game (115.1). 

Home teams typically have a big advantage, but matchup-wise, we see a strong case to be made for the visitors. Allen is one of the most talented players in the history of the NFL, and as a franchise, no team has more experience or more motivation to get further in the postseason than Buffalo. We expect this to be a tightly fought game and a teaser on Jacksonville is a fine option, but there’s only one way we can look in terms of a winner.

Bills vs Jaguars prediction: Bills ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -1.5.

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The San Francisco 49ers (12-5) withstood a bunch of injuries to key players this season, including QB Brock Purdy missing 8 games. The Niners had an opportunity at the top seed in the NFC before falling at home to the Seahawks last Saturday, 13-3. San Francisco fell to the 6th seed, getting set to face the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles (11-6). There were plenty of ups and downs for the Eagles, including 3 winning streaks of 3 games and a losing skid of 3 games, but they managed to grab the NFC East title for a 2nd straight season.

Philadelphia and San Francisco each finished with 10-7 ATS marks, while the Niners won 7 of 9 games away from Levi’s Stadium. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad beat the Seahawks and Rams on the road in the first 5 weeks, but the other 5 away victories came against teams with losing records. The 49ers posted a 2-4 ATS ledger in the underdog role, which included an overtime triumph over the Rams as a 6.5-point dog in Week 5. The Eagles compiled a 4-4 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field, including outright defeats to the Broncos and Bears. Philadelphia ranked 24th in yards per game (311.2), the 3rd-fewest for any playoff team after ranking 8th in this category during its Super Bowl run last season.

These teams last met in December 2023 when the Niners roughed up the Eagles at the Linc 42-19 as 3.5-point road favorites. Purdy threw 4 TD passes, while now-departed WR Deebo Samuel scored 3 times. In their last playoff matchup in the 2022 NFC Championship, the Eagles shredded the 49ers 31-7, but Purdy was hurt early and San Francisco was forced to run the ball basically the entire game. The Niners are 6-3 in the playoffs under Shanahan since 2021 and have not been bounced in their first game. Let’s back the 49ers with the points against the defending champs.

49ers vs Eagles best bet: San Francisco 49ers +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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There wasn’t much faith that the Bills would have their 5-year stranglehold atop the AFC East this season. The Patriots seemed like a long shot after a 4-13 record in QB Drake Maye’s rookie season, but New England brought in former LB Mike Vrabel as head coach. Vrabel helped flip that 4-13 mark to 14-3 and propel Maye to strong MVP consideration with 4,394 passing yards and 31 TD passes. New England overcame a 1-2 start, which included a mind-boggling loss to Las Vegas in the opener, to win 10 consecutive games before melting down in the second half against Buffalo. The strike against New England is 12 of its 14 victories came against non-playoff teams, as the Pats only beat the Panthers and Bills in consecutive games early in the season.

The Chargers travel cross-country to Gillette Stadium as QB Justin Herbert seeks his first playoff victory in 3 tries. After losses to Jacksonville and Houston in the last 3 seasons, Herbert and the Lightning Bolts try to break through after a 2nd straight 11-6 regular season. Los Angeles went through a 7-1 stretch from late October through Christmas before dropping the final 2 games to Houston and Denver. The Week 18 loss to the Broncos meant nothing since Herbert sat and the Chargers had no chance at winning the AFC West. In 4 games as an underdog with Herbert starting, the Chargers posted a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark, including a pair of victories over the Chiefs and a home win over the Eagles.

It’s interesting how the Patriots didn’t lose a road game, but dropped 3 games in Foxboro. New England finished 8-3 ATS as a favorite, as 2 of the non-covers came in close victories over Cincinnati and Atlanta. The argument against New England and its schedule is valid, but the Pats also defeated the Buccaneers and Ravens as underdogs, both of whom had a shot to win their divisions in Week 18. Herbert hasn’t won a playoff game, and they are going into a tough environment in the cold on Sunday night against a Patriots’ team that is hosting their its postseason game since 2019.

Chargers vs Patriots prediction: New England Patriots -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.

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The Toronto Raptors have relied heavily on their starting 5 for their success this season. Going into tonight’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers, there are question marks on which starters will be available here. Immanuel Quickley is the only one not to appear on the injury report, with RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl confirmed out and Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram listed as questionable. The 76ers only have Joel Embiid on their injury report so they could have a major advantage depth wise in this contest. They have also been strong on the road this season, with 11 wins from 17 attempts and are currently tied for the fewest road losses in the Eastern Conference.

Over the last 10 games the Raptors have already had issues scoring the ball, ranking 18th in offensive rating. If Quickley will not have the rest of the starters with him, do not expect him to reverse their scoring fortunes. He is not in great form either, scoring 20 or more once in 4 games this month and having not shot over 50% from the field since mid-December. The Raptors are also just 29th in 3-point percentage over the last 10 games, so it is hard to see who will step up and help carry the scoring for them. It should allow a team with the firepower of Tyrese Maxey and Paul George to cover the spread comfortably.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Toronto Raptors prediction: 76ers -4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 76ers -6.5.

Ever since winning the NBA Cup Final the Knicks have been a different team. They’ve won just once in 6 games, while from a betting perspective they’ve covered just twice in 13 games causing a lot of frustration in the betting community.  Josh Hart’s absence from the line-up is proving to be a real issue, the Knicks would be wise to add a back-up at his position before the trade deadline arrives if possible. On Sunday the Nets are in Portland to take on the red-hot Trail Blazers, a team they’ve owned over the past couple of seasons with 5 wins in a row in head-to-head meetings. However, relying on that would be foolish ahead of this game, New York’s recent form tells us they could struggle yet again here.

What Deni Avdija and his Portland Trail Blazers are doing right now is nothing short of remarkable. They’ve won 5 games in a row, all against Western Conference opponents which has elevated them to 9th in the standings and just 1 win away from the .500 mark. With averages of 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 7 assists per game, it’s quite possible we see Avdija in the all-star game this year. Just a couple of nights ago he dropped 41 points on the Houston Rockets, one of the elite defensive teams in the NBA. During the win streak only Boston has a better offensive rating than the Blazers, they’ve been particularly lethal from downtown averaging 16.4 makes per game (3rd highest).

Can we really trust the Knicks with a 8-10 SU and 5-13 ATS record on the road this season? Their 5-game road trip is off to a bad start after the loss to Phoenix, without Josh Hart they might have issues dealing with Avdija on the defensive end here. It sounds weird to say for a team that’s on a 5-game win streak, but I’ll take a gamble on the Trail Blazers in this one.

New York Knicks vs Portland Trail Blazers Predictions: Trail Blazers +4.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Denver Nuggets will host the Milwaukee Bucks in a non-conference matchup Sunday night. The Nuggets have a record of 25-13 this season, and they are 10-6 on their home court. Denver has lost three of their last five games, and they are coming off a 110-87 loss against the Atlanta Hawks. Peyton Watson led the team in scoring with 25 points, but the Nuggets could not overcome 19 turnovers. The Bucks have a record of 17-21, and they are 8-12 when playing on the road. Milwaukee has won three of their last four games, including their last win against the Los Angeles Lakers at a score of 105-101. Kevin Porter Jr. led the team in scoring with 22 points, and Giannis Antetokounmpo had two key stops against LeBron James in the final minute to secure the victory.

The story for both of these teams this season has been injuries to their star players. The Bucks lost Antetokounmpo earlier in the season to injury, and they went 3-11 with him out of the lineup. Now that Antetokounmpo is back and healthy, the Bucks look rejuvenated and are back to playing winning basketball. Now it’s the Nuggets turn to play without their star. Nikola Jokic went down with an injury that will keep him out at least four weeks. The Nuggets are 3-3 without Jokic, but their offensive numbers have dropped significantly without the former MVP. The Nuggets have averaged 109.2 points, 38 rebounds, and shot 45% from the field in their last six games. Those numbers are well below their season average of 123.1 points, 43 rebounds, and 50.5% shooting from the field. The Nuggets were just embarrassed on their home floor by the Hawks, and they are in danger of losing again tonight. 

Bucks -2 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Fighting Illini will make their way to Carver-Hawkeye Arena looking to make it five wins in a row. Illinois is ranked No.16 in the country and has earned that spot coming off a dominant 81-55 win over Rutgers in which they shot 44.1% from the floor. Things didn’t go exactly as planned for No. 19 Iowa in its last outing as the Hawkeyes fell 70-67 to Minnesota while shooting just 39.7%. Iowa has been strong at home this season, going 9-0, but this will be its toughest test yet and will require a strong performance if they want to keep this one close.  

Illinois has just three losses on the season, all coming against top-25 opponents in Alabama, UConn, and Nebraska. The Fighting Illini have a notable size advantage in this matchup and are shooting 47.6% from the floor on the year. Iowa will struggle to get rebounds in this matchup, which should open the door for plenty of second-chance opportunities for the Fighting Illini. Illinois is averaging 45.8 rebounds per game compared to Iowa’s 34.4. However, Iowa has shot the ball extremely well this season, making 51.9% of its shots. At the end of the day, Illinois’ rebounding capabilities and size will likely get Iowa into foul trouble. Look for Illinois to take care of business on the road and pick up the victory as the slight underdog. 

Illinois vs Iowa prediction: Illinois (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s Sunday, which means we turn our attention to the AAC, as North Texas heads north to face Wichita State. Both teams come into the game struggling of late. The Shockers have lost two in a row, first to Charlotte in overtime and then to Rice at home. The Mean Green have lost 2 of their last 3, albeit to South Florida and Memphis. Both need the win to get back to .500 in conference play. I think the Shockers will take it at home, and I am cautiously optimistic with the number at -6.5.

If you are a fan of fast-paced basketball, you will want to look elsewhere. These are two of the slowest teams in the country, both ranking in the bottom 40 in terms of pace. That will make this game a grind, and it puts a high premium on offensive and defensive efficiency. The Shockers are far better on offense, while the Mean Green are the better defensive team. Neither team is very good from beyond the arc, but Wichita State is far better on the glass, especially on the offensive glass. North Texas will need to create a lot of turnovers to win this game, and the Shockers have not committed many turnovers this season. If Wichita takes care of the basketball and rebounds, they should pull away just enough to give us the cover here.

North Texas vs Wichita State Prediction: Wichita St -6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

UCF will look to avoid another upset as they get ready to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Knights are coming off an 87-76 loss to Oklahoma State in which they shot just 37.5% from the floor. UCF will need a much better performance from Jordan Burks, who went 0-for-11 from the field, with his only 3 points coming from the charity stripe. This UCF team has far more offensive firepower than the Bearcats, but they’ll have their work cut out for them going up against Cincinnati’s defense. 

Cincinnati has lost back-to-back close games, losing to Houston by 7 and West Virginia by 2. Despite those two tough losses, the Bearcats have struggled against tough competition this season, and their most impressive win this year came against Dayton back in November. The Bearcats have four players averaging double digits, with Baba Miller leading the team with 12.7 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Miller does have the height advantage over Jamichael Stillwell, but this Bearcats team doesn’t have the depth and talent to compete with UCF. The Knights also have four players averaging double digits this season, and they have a slight rebounding advantage, which will be the difference maker here. Look for UCF to overpower the Bearcats in this matchup on their home court, making them my best bet of the day. 

Cincinnati vs UCF prediction: UCF -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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