Parlays

Boston checks every box to be a market darling in Game 2 – they’ve been dominant against the number down the backstretch of the regular season, they’re at home, they are a name brand side with pedigree, and they just beat Philadelphia by 32 in Game One. The key isn’t whether Boston is better, they clearly are. The question is whether backing them here is going with the best of it. I dare say it is not. Blowouts like Game One tend to distort expectations, but they rarely carry over cleanly into the next game. Adjustments are made, urgency increases, and the trailing team typically responds with a more controlled and concerted effort.

Philadelphia, despite being the last team into the playoff field via the play-in route, now plays with a clearer objective: stabilize, compete, and try to even the series. That alone tends to reduce volatility and limit extreme outcomes. Boston’s strength is efficiency and structure, not necessarily relentless margin-building. They are team that likes to lean into defense and make smart plays. When games normalize, their style doesn’t always support covering inflated numbers like this repeatedly. After a Game 1, the Celtics even at this price, look too easy, and that’s exactly the problem. When that transpires, the value almost always sits with the other side, even if it appears otherwise. In this case, it’s Sixers or nothing. Take the points.

76ers vs Celtics prediction: 76ers +13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +13.

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The San Antonio Spurs opened the series with a convincing 111-98 win over the Portland Trail Blazers, covering the 12.5-point spread in Game 1 behind a dominant showing from Victor Wembanyama. The rookie star delivered 35 points in his playoff debut, controlling the game on both ends with efficient scoring and rim protection that disrupted Portland’s offensive rhythm. Despite the final margin, the Blazers had stretches where they competed effectively, led by Deni Avdija, who posted a strong 30-point, 10-rebound performance, while Scoot Henderson added secondary scoring. However, Portland’s struggles from beyond the arc and inability to sustain runs ultimately allowed San Antonio to pull away, highlighting the Spurs’ depth and shot making advantage.

Heading into Game 2, the betting market provides an intriguing shift. The line once again opened at Spurs -12.5 but has since moved slightly toward Portland, settling around -11.5. That movement suggests some confidence in the Blazers’ ability to adjust and compete more effectively this time around. While San Antonio has clearly shown it can elevate its play in the postseason, covering large spreads in back to back games is rarely straightforward. Portland has already demonstrated it can hang around for stretches, and with improved perimeter shooting and better control of turnovers, they should be able to keep this game more competitive. Ultimately, while the Spurs remain the superior team and are likely to maintain control of the series, the margin feels less secure in this specific spot. Playoff adjustments, potential shooting regression from Game 1, and the slight line movement all point toward a tighter contest. Portland may not have enough to steal a win, but the Trail Blazers are positioned to stay within striking distance for much of the game and avoid another lopsided result.

Trail Blazers vs Spurs prediction: Trail Blazers +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

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Will Kevin Durant play? That is the most important question going into Game 2. After bumping knees with a teammate in warm-ups last week, KD opted to sit out the series opener as he just wasn’t feeling right. Without him the Rockets offense just looked discombobulated, despite taking 27 (!!!) shots more than the Lakers and out-rebounding them 44-35 (and 21-3 on offense), Houston just couldn’t do much even against a shorthanded Lakers team. Game 2 is massive for them now, going down 2-0 would mean they’d need to win 4 of the next 6 which would be extremely tough. Is it time to hit the panic button after just one game?

The Lakers played an extremely efficient brand of basketball on offense, at least from a shot selection perspective. They ended the game shooting 61% from the field and 53% from three, with Luke Kennard leading the way scoring 27 pts on a perfect 5-for-5 from downtown. LA did turn the ball over 18 times which is concerning, but then again with only LeBron and Marcus Smart being able to play make on offense that’s not really surprising. Speaking of LeBron, he ended the game with 13 assists, doing his best Magic Johnson impression in Luka’s absence. I do not anticipate the Lakers changing things up all that much for Game 2, realistically what can they even change with their two best players being out?

KD playing or not makes all the difference here. With two days in between Games 1 and 2 one would think he would have enough time to fully recover. Houston has the experience of winning in LA, having done so earlier this season in the lone meeting at Crypto.com Arena. This is a must-win situation as it can be after just one game played for a team and I think Ime Udoka and his men respond. Give me Houston to cover.

Rockets vs Lakers prediction: Rockets -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Montreal Canadiens secured an overtime win by the score of 4-3 over the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 1 of this series. In a game that featured 7 total goals, Montreal’s Juraj Slafkovsky and Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel accounted for 5 of them. Slafkovsky potted a hat trick that culminated in the game-winner for Montreal, while Hagel scored 2 of Tampa Bay’s 3 goals on the night. It would be a bit surprising to see multiple players with multiple goals again in Game 2.

Both the Lightning and Canadiens were undisciplined defensively, as a total of 10 power plays occurred in Game 1. Both Tampa Bay and Montreal took advantage of those opportunities, as they combined to go 5-for-10 on the man advantage. With that in mind, I expect both teams to come out more fundamentally sound defensively and actively looking to avoid the penalty box. That could especially be true for the Lightning after seeing Slafkovsky pot all 3 of his goals on the power play. After 7 goals were scored in the series-opener, look for ice space to be a bit more limited and scoring chances to be at more of a premium this time around.

Canadiens vs Lightning prediction: Under 6 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Boston Bruins had control of game one of this series until there were eight minutes remaining in the third period. The Buffalo Sabres somehow came out with a 4-3 victory in regulation time to take a 1-0 lead in the series. Game two will come on Tuesday night, and the vibes are high in Buffalo. The Sabres will have the momentum from game one and the crowd is going to rocking once again making the KeyBank Center a tough building to play in. The Sabres dominated much of game one, out-shooting the Bruins 38-20. An area of concern for the Bruins is their lack of scoring depth. This was on display in game one, as they only received production from four forwards on three goals. The David Pastrnak trio drove all of the offence. They are going to need more from the rest of their forwards if they want to keep up with the Sabres.

The Sabres were punishing the Bruins physically, as they had 53 hits in the game. I think the Sabres are going to come out flying once again on Tuesday and lay the body every chance they get. I don’t see them giving up an early lead like they did in game one, look for them to score the first goal and control the rest of the game from there. Give me the Sabres to take a 2-0 lead in this series.

Bruins vs. Sabres prediction: Sabres ML (-170) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Vegas Golden Knights took a 1-0 series lead over the Utah Mammoth with a 4-2 victory in Game 1 on Sunday night. That game stayed under the listed total of 6.5, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see another low-scoring game in Game 2. Generally speaking, both Vegas and Utah are stout defensive teams who make life difficult on their opponents. There may have been 6 total goals in Game 1, but it was a 2-1 game after 2 period before Vegas erupted for 3 goals in the 3rd. It was clear that both teams are familiar enough with one another to stymie each other in the offensive zone.

Vegas goaltender Carter Hart has found a groove with John Tortorella leading the way behind the bench. Not only is Hart 7-0-1 under Vegas’ new coach, but he owns a stellar .935 save percentage as well as 3.67 goals save above expected. He was solid in Game 1, turning away 31 of the 33 shots he saw. With the way he is playing, look for Hart to put forth another strong performance in this one. The Golden Knights and Mammoth have now played 7 times since 2024, and all but one of those games have featured 6 or fewer goals. With a total of 6, the under is the play.

Mammoth vs Golden Knights prediction: Under 6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

I favor the Miami Marlins at home in Game 1 of their series with the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday. Max Meyer is the scheduled starter for the Marlins as the right-hander looks to make his 5th start of the season. His first 4 outings have combined for 19.2 innings of work and a 4.12 ERA. Meyer has yet to work past the 5th inning and he is walking more batters than he would hope, but the strikeout numbers have been there, and he has been able to avoid major damage to this point. The Cardinals enter Monday sitting 23rd in wOBA with a 93 wRC+ against right-handed pitching so far.

The Marlins offense has been much better so far against right-handed pitching, ranking 8th in wOBA and posting a wRC+ of 108. They also draw the softer matchup on paper against Michael McGreevy. McGreevy has made 4 starts so far with 21.2 innings of 2.49 ERA ball, but his underlying metrics suggest harsh eventual regression. Through his first 82 batters faced McGreevy ranks 11th percentile or worse in barrel rate, xBA, and whiff rate. He isn’t missing bats and he is allowing far too much hard contact. McGreevy has been fortunate to this point as opponents have a BABIP of just .188, but that is surely to change with the amount of contact he allows and how hard it is. Let’s roll with the Marlins on Monday.

Marlins vs Cardinals prediction: Marlins ML (-134) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

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The Atlanta Braves come into this matchup riding a 5-game winning streak after completing a sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies, and they’ll look to keep that momentum going against an inconsistent Washington Nationals team. Washington avoided a sweep against the Giants with a 3-0 win yesterday, but they’ll need much more to compete in this spot. Taking the mound for the Braves will be Bryce Elder who is 2-1 with a 0.77 ERA. In 4 starts this season, Elder has given up 17 hits and struck out 23 in 23.1 innings pitched. For the Nationals, Jake Irvin will get the nod, entering with a 1-2 record and a 6.16 ERA. 

Offensively, both teams have been productive. Atlanta ranks second in the league with a .793 OPS and is averaging 5.5 runs per game, while Washington has also been solid with a .742 OPS and the same 5.5 runs per game. However, the difference in this matchup comes from pitching – particularly depth. Irvin has yet to pitch beyond 5 innings this season, which likely forces Washington into early bullpen usage. That’s a major concern given the Nationals 5.37 bullpen ERA, one of the worst in the league. On the other side, the Braves bullpen has been dominant, posting a 2.69 ERA and consistently closing the door late in the game. Even if Washington finds some offensive success, it’s going to be limited, and it’s difficult to trust their pitching staff to hold up against one of the hottest lineups in baseball. With a clear edge in starting pitching, bullpen, and offense – Atlanta should be able to handle business on Monday night on the road against the Nationals. 

Braves vs Nationals best bet: Braves ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Baltimore Orioles face the Kansas City Royals on Monday as these teams open up a series. Neither team comes into this one playing very well. The Orioles have lost 5 of their last 6, and it has largely been their offense that is lagging. But the Royals, on the other hand, are in the pits. If it weren’t for the futility of the Mets, the Royals would be drawing lots of attention for their 7-game losing streak. I am not sure how you back KC right now. I’ll take the Orioles on the Money Line on Monday night.

For the Royals, the problems have been myriad. The biggest issue is they cannot score. They are the lowest scoring team in baseball right now, and they regularly check in with 2 runs or less. If you are going to struggle on offense, you at least better pitch well. About that . . . the Royals have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball, and the only bullpen ERA over 6. Seth Lugo needs to be perfect tonight to give them a chance, at least the way they have been playing lately. Things will change for the Royals at some point, but at the moment, I’m not sure how you back them with any confidence.

Orioles vs Royals prediction: Orioles ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors return for Game 2 after Cleveland opened the series with a 126-113 victory, covering the closing 8.5-point spread. Donovan Mitchell led the way with 32 points, pacing an offense that found consistent rhythm both inside and beyond the arc. Cleveland’s turning point came in the third quarter, where a decisive run created separation and exposed Toronto’s defensive lapses in transition. Contributions from the supporting cast, including key bench scoring, helped the Cavaliers maintain control down the stretch. Still, despite the final score, Toronto showed competitiveness early, with Scottie Barnes and a balanced offensive effort keeping the game within reach before Cleveland’s surge shifted momentum.

Heading into Game 2, the betting line remains unchanged at Cavaliers -8.5, creating an intriguing situational angle. Typically, when a favorite covers comfortably in Game 1 and the spread holds steady, there can be value on the underdog to respond with adjustments. While Cleveland has demonstrated it can elevate its play in the postseason, it has also shown inconsistency when tasked with covering larger spreads in consecutive games. Toronto should enter with increased urgency, likely focusing on limiting runs, tightening defensive rotations, and controlling tempo more effectively. Even if Cleveland ultimately maintains control of the series, expecting another double digit margin under identical conditions feels less certain. With playoff intensity rising and adjustments expected, this matchup projects to be more competitive than Game 1 suggests, giving Toronto a strong opportunity to keep the game within the number.

Raptors vs Cavaliers prediction: Raptors +8.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5

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Coming into this series, we all knew that the Knicks had the edge experience-wise when it came to playing in the postseason, and the series opener just highlighted that even more. In some stretches of the game the Hawks’ offense looked a tad too slow and that’s really a bad sign for a young team like theirs. New York actually won the fast break point battle 22-13, that’s something you definitely want to see change as this series progresses if you’re head coach Quinn Snyder. I also expect them to attack the basket a lot more in Game 2, only 19 free throws compared to 30 by the Knicks is also something to look at. Over the past 7 meetings, they’ve now lost 6 against the Knicks, but again I feel like all the pressure is on the Knicks to deliver in Game 2.

If you’re a Knicks fan, you have to be delighted with what you saw in the opener from your team, but especially from Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT came alive in the 2nd half, making play after play on offense, and aside from Okongwu, the Hawks aren’t exactly equipped to handle a big player that can shoot at the PF/C positions. Another positive the Knicks can take away from Game 1 was their bench production. On paper, 20 points might not sound like a lot, but for a team that’s often struggled with depth in their previous two postseason runs that is very encouraging. I don’t think we’ll see that many adjustments made for Game 2, one thing I would like to see though is an increase in ball movement and more assists. I am not confident that the Knicks can win back-to-back games here if they lose the assists battle again.

Speeding things up in Game 2 will be critical for the Hawks, plus getting Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker into better spots to be more effective on offense. Game 1 saw them shoot a combined 14-for-36 which isn’t all that good. Atlanta has a 22-20 SU record in home games this season and has covered in 23 of those 42 games. They also have the experience of winning at MSG, having done so back in early January. It’s always more difficult for the home team to prepare Game 2 when they’re up 1-0, I think the Hawks can at least make this a game if not pull off the upset on Monday. Back the Hawks plus the points.

Hawks vs Knicks prediction: Hawks +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Favorites dominated across Game 1 in the first round of the NBA Playoffs, as the favorite won and covered in 6 of the 8 games. If you believe that these trends could zig-zag and underdogs could have a better showing in Game 2, this game is one that you may want circled. The Denver Nuggets defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 116-105 in Game 1 behind 30 points from Jamal Murray. The Timberwolves got off to a fast start in this game with an early double digit lead, but Denver eventually found their footing and broke this game open in their favor in the third quarter. It was a typical home playoff performance where Denver’s role players, with the benefit of their home arena, outplayed Minnesota’s role players. Christian Braun, Spencer Jones, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Bruce Brown went a combined 5-9 from deep, making up for Murray’s 0-8 shooting from downtown. Murray benefitted from a beneficial whistle in this game with 16 of his 30 points coming from the free throw line.

Minnesota has the pieces to beat Denver in Game 2, but the Timberwolves will need the referees to allow them to play a more physical style of defense than they allowed in Game 1. That physical defense was the formula in the 2024 postseason to slow down Murray, as the Kentucky product averaged a career-playoff-low in that series with only 18.4 points per game on 40% shooting. If you remember, Murray was so frustrated by Minnesota’s physical defense that he threw a heating pad on the floor during play. With fewer trips to the line, Murray’s Game 1 would have fit in line with his 2024 performances. With that in mind, the Timberwolves once again come out aggressive defensively in this one with their backs against the wall. I’ll back the Timberwolves and take the points tonight on the road.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction: Timberwolves +6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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The Philadelphia Flyers opened the series with their in-state rival Pittsburgh Penguins by a 3-2 score on Saturday as slight underdogs (+118) as the Under (6.5) cashed. Dan Vladar was hardly tested in the victory, while Jamie Drysdale, Travis Sanheim and Porter Martone accounted for the offense. Philadelphia has won 2 in a row against Pittsburgh since March 7, the final regular-season meeting. In fact, 4 of the past 6 meetings have been decided by a single goal, and the Under in Game 1 snapped a 3-game Over run in the series since Dec. 1.

The Penguins went 20-14-8 at home during the regular season, but the Flyers were a tough team on the road, going an impressive 24-14-4. It’s tempting to play Philadelphia for a second straight game, as it tries to put Pittsburgh in an 0-2 series hole before things shift cross-state to the City of Brotherly Love. Head coach Dan Muse is playing possum, not announcing his starting netminder. Stuart Skinner made 17 saves on 20 shots, which isn’t terrible. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Arturs Silovs get the starting nod in the blue paint. Look for Pittsburgh to bounce back at home.

Flyers vs Penguins prediction: Penguins ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Ottawa Senators will take on the Carolina Hurricanes for Game 2 of their playoff series. In Game 1, the Hurricanes won by a score of 2-0. This game was much different than the regular season games between these 2 teams where we saw 21 goals scored through 3 games. This shows the roll of defense in the NHL Playoffs. On the year, the Senators have averaged 3.35 goals per game while allowing 2.99 goals per game. The most impressive statistic for the Senators is that they held opposing teams to 24.4 shots per game. The issue is that they rank 29th in goaltender save percentage on the year, and this is a major issue against a tough Hurricanes team.

For the Hurricanes, they ranked 2nd this season in shots on target, averaging 32.2 shots per game. Additionally, they ranked 1st for the fewest shots against averaging just 23.9 shots a game. The Hurricanes are an elite team both offensively and defensively. The Hurricanes have also scored 60 power play goals this season while only allowing 45 power play goals. In Game 1 there were tons of penalties and I suspect we see that again today. Overall, the Hurricanes have the edge across the board and have the momentum in this series. I am taking Carolina on the money line.

Senators vs Hurricanes prediction: Hurricanes ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Minnesota Wild took a 1-0 series lead over the Stars with a convincing 6-1 victory in Game 1 on Saturday night. Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Mats Zuccarello all recorded three-point nights, with Boldy and Eriksson Ek potting multiple goals. As impressive as Minnesota’s offensive performance was, look for Dallas to bring a spirited defensive effort into Game 2. The Stars were among the best defensive teams in the NHL during the regular season, ranking 2nd allowing just 2.71 goals per game. Head coach Glen Gulutzan also clearly has confidence in his netminder to bounce back, as he’s already stated that Jake Oettinger will be between the pipes for Game 2. Look for the Stars to be more stout defensively in this one.

On the other side, Minnesota goaltender Jesper Wallstedt looked extremely impressive in his NHL postseason debut by stopping 27 of the 28 shots he faced. Plus, the only goal he gave up came on the power play. It’s clear he wasn’t phased by the pressure of the postseason, and he will most likely be in net again for Minnesota in Game 2. Playing with plenty of confidence, Wallstedt should be able to hold the Stars in check once again. After the over cashed in Game 1, look to the under in Game 2.

Wild vs Stars Game 2 prediction: Under 6 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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