Parlays

The resistable force meets the movable object when the 1-11 Tennessee Titans make the trip to Cleveland to take on the 3-9 Browns, and the disastrous season should continue for the visitors. It’s been a rough first season for rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who has not thrown more than 1 touchdown pass in any game this season and has exceeded 200 passing yards just once in his last 4 games. He now comes up against a vicious Browns defense that has allowed the 3rd-fewest passing yards while posting the 2nd-most sacks in the NFL. Given the Titans have allowed the most sacks this season, Ward should be running for his life throughout this matchup. Tennessee’s offense has been totally anemic, scoring more than 20 points just once in its last 7 games, and given how stingy this Cleveland D has been, it’s hard to see the Titans having much success at all putting points on the board.

The Browns should win this one, but will they be good enough on offense to cover? They managed just 8 points against the 49ers last week, but Shedeur Sanders has at least been serviceable in his 2 starts while Quinshon Judkins has been hot in recent weeks. That spells bad news for a Titans defense that has allowed the 2nd-most rushing touchdowns, while through the air they’re allowing the 2nd-most passing yards per attempt. Tennessee has allowed 25+ points in 5 of their last 6 games, and this matchup should see the Browns moving the chains with a lot more ease than the Titans. Take Cleveland to win and cover.

Titans vs Browns prediction: Cleveland Browns -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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It will be a showdown in the AFC East when the Miami Dolphins visit the New York Jets in Week 14 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Once left for dead with head coach Mike McDaniel all but fired at 1-6, Miami has completely turned things around with 4 wins in its last 5 games. I expect that momentum to continue, so my Dolphins vs Jets pick is for the visitors to win and cover. The Dolphins failed to cover in last week’s victory at New Orleans, but they probably should have won by a lot more than 4 points — squandering almost the entirety of a 16-0 lead in the 2nd half.

It is true that the Fins are not very good on the road, but it’s not like MetLife Stadium is a difficult place to play. The Jets’ only home wins are over Atlanta and Cleveland, and they are 3-9 overall. It would not be out of bounds to argue that they should be — or at least could be — 0-12. New York beat Atlanta 27-24 this past weekend despite getting dominated in all phases of the game other than special teams. It scraped past Cleveland 27-20 while gaining 169 yards of total offense. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s squad outlasted Cincinnati 39-38 when the Bengals did not have Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, Miami’s 4-1 stretch includes a 30-13 rout of Buffalo. Although Tua Tagovailoa is not the most trustworthy quarterback, I will roll with him, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle over anyone and anything the Jets can offer.
 
Dolphins vs Jets best bet: Dolphins -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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The two oldest rivals in the NFL have plenty on the line this Sunday at Lambeau Field. The Bears (9-3) lead the NFC North heading into Week 14 and will visit the Packers (8-3-1), who are playing their third consecutive division foe. Green Bay has passed the first two tests, handling Minnesota at home, 23-6, followed by a 31-24 triumph at Detroit as 3-point underdogs on Thanksgiving. Now, the Packers look for the trifecta to pass the Bears for first place in the division.

Chicago has been impressive in Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach, overcoming an 0-2 start to win 9 of the last 10 games. During this span, the Bears have won 6 games by 5 points or less, but put together a strong road effort in the 24-15 Black Friday victory at Philadelphia as 7.5-point underdogs. The Bears have covered 3 straight games and are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 opportunities in the underdog role. These teams will meet twice in the next 3 weeks, and both matchups last season were decided by a combined 3 points. Green Bay won at Chicago, 20-19 as 6-point underdogs, but the Bears knocked off the Packers in the season finale at Lambeau, 24-22 as 10.5-point dogs.

Two of the worst offensive efforts for Green Bay came at home against Carolina and Philadelphia in consecutive losses in early November. The Packers combined for 20 points in those defeats, but Green Bay has averaged 27.0 ppg in the past 3 victories. Green Bay went through a 1-7 ATS slump before picking up covers against Minnesota and Detroit. In last Thursday’s win over the Lions, the Pack were paced by QB Jordan Love’s 4 TD passes, his 6th multi-touchdown performance of the season. Interestingly enough, Love has not thrown a touchdown pass in Green Bay’s last 3 home games. Let’s look at backing the Packers here to pass the Bears for first in the NFC North with a home victory.

Bears vs Packers prediction: Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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The Big 12 Championship will be the first one out of the gates on Saturday afternoon, slated to kick off at 11:00 am local time from Arlington, TX. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 11-1 entering this game and a lock for the playoffs, and their only loss came at Arizona State while missing their quarterback. BYU also comes in at 11-1, and the Cougars’ only loss came to the Red Raiders. Yet somehow, the selection committee seems to think BYU isn’t a playoff team if they lose this game. That makes no sense to me. BYU is really good, and definitely worthy of the playoffs; the problem here, though, is that Texas Tech is the perfectly wrong matchup for the Cougars, and the Red Raiders ought to win this game comfortably as a result. My BYU vs. Texas Tech best bet is the Red Raiders -12.5.

BYU is a strong, physical, bullying team. That has been very effective against everyone in the Big 12 except for Texas Tech. That is because Tech is bigger, more physical, and more of a bully. To me, this matchup is simple: these teams are similarly constructed, but Tech is just bigger and better at it. For BYU to pull the upset, it will likely take things like trick plays, funny bounces and turnovers, and special teams anomalies. Just lining up and playing? Red Raiders all day long. Did you know that Texas Tech is 11-1 against the spread on the year also? That is to say, they don’t just win; they cover. And more importantly, it means that the betting market consistently mis-evaluates this team and fails to recognize just how good they are. Folks, this team can win the whole thing if all their players stay healthy.

The first matchup went 29-7 to the Red Raiders. It was in Lubbock, College GameDay was there, Patrick Mahomes, the whole thing. The Red Raiders totally dominated the line of scrimmage, and the BYU freshman QB was overwhelmed. But here is the kicker—the Red Raiders didn’t even play well in that game. Their offense consistently stalled out in the red zone, and they kept kicking field goals that prevented this game from being a total route. Texas Tech is really good, and playing in Jerry World might as well still be a home game. I think they win by 2 touchdowns (and the committee should still let BYU into the playoffs).

BYU vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders -12.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Western Michigan has been the hottest team in the MAC, winning 8 of 9 and cashing spreads at a 6-2-1 clip. That streak has created a massive wave of market confidence, and bettors continue piling onto the Broncos. But the line tells a different story: despite all that momentum, WMU is laying less than a field goal in the MAC title game. That’s the first indicator the market doesn’t fully trust them in this one.

Miami (OH) comes in off dominant wins over Ball State and Buffalo, but what happened before those results is pivotal. The RedHawks suffered a blowout loss against Toledo and a loss at Ohio, where the market was backing them in a revenge spot. From a distance, Miami looks like a team that can’t grapple with any decent opposition that the MAC has to offer. That makes WMU laying less than a field goal appealing. And then there is what really matters: last year’s embarrassment in this exact championship spot. The RedHawks were routed, and the market remembers that — but this is their chance to correct that. Western Michigan is priced at its ceiling, while Miami is undervalued. This is the chance to move in hard on the RedHawks. I’m backing them to win the MAC.

Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan prediction: Miami (OH) ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Amid all of the conference realignment and transfer portal chaos, the SEC Championship consists of a matchup that college football fans know all too well. On Saturday, the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide will battle for a conference championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where the Bulldogs just played last week against Georgia Tech. As it stands, no matter who wins this game, Alabama and Georgia will have accounted for 11 of the last 12 SEC champions, and this will be the 4th time these two programs have met for a conference title in that span. 

The last time Alabama met Georgia in this spot, the Tide knocked off the #1 Bulldogs, which ultimately put the Tide into the then-4-team College Football Playoff and booted the ‘Dawgs out. Since then, the Tide and the ‘Dawgs have met twice in a regular season setting, both of which resulted in Alabama wins under Kalen DeBoer. As you probably know, Kirby Smart is just 1-7 SU against Alabama since he took over as the head coach in Athens.

I picked Alabama to win the SEC Championship (and the National Championship) back before the season started, and I have no reason to jump off the boat now – even with the Tide putting me through the ringer seemingly every week. When Alabama went into Athens and snapped Georgia’s 33-game, nearly 6-year home winning streak back in September, the Bulldogs were laying 2.5 points. Fast forward to this upcoming matchup, and you will see Georgia is favored by that same margin. Well, on the surface it looks the same, but being favored by 2.5 points on a neutral would mean oddsmakers have Georgia around a 5.5-point favorite – give or take a half-point or so – if this game was played in Athens this weekend. I simply disagree with that, as I have this game much closer to a pick ‘em on a neutral. 

There’s not much to pick apart with these teams that you don’t already know. Simply put, these are two of the best teams in college football on both sides of the line of scrimmage. By the numbers, Georgia has been more efficient offensively over the last month and some change, but the Bulldogs have played a worse collection of defenses in that span compared to the Tide. However, on the opposite side of the ball and against a similarly mediocre collection of offenses, Alabama has the better efficiency metrics of late. For reference, the Tide are top-5 in PPA per play and points allowed per quality drive since Week 10, which includes top-15 marks on standard downs and passing downs, as well as against both the run and the pass. As a cherry on top, the Tide are top-15 in havoc generated over that span, and they are slightly better at preventing touchdowns than the Bulldogs on the same amount of red-zone trips allowed this season. 

It might be beneficial to wait for a potential 3 to pop in the market, but if one does appear, it won’t last very long. All things considered, I’ll lean to Alabama at the current price. 

SEC Championship prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide +2.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (+100) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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The top 2 teams in the country will meet in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday night when the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers clash at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. These are the only undefeated teams left in the country, so whoever wins this game will be the lone undefeated team going into the CFP as the #1 seed. The loser will still likely get a first-round bye, so other than the official moniker of being Big Ten Champions, there isn’t much at risk for either of these teams if we’re being honest with ourselves. Though, I am still of the opinion that winning a conference championship is a significant milestone that should continue to be celebrated. 

That said, there’s an argument to be made that this could be a flat spot for the Buckeyes. Having gotten the Michigan monkey off its back, Ohio State could fall victim to the dreaded hangover here, especially now that its sights are likely set more on repeating as national champions than winning the Big Ten title. Of course, I am speculating, but given the fact that this is Indiana’s first-ever Big Ten Championship appearance on the gridiron, motivation might be slightly higher for the Hoosiers here – though, again, I will admit I’m splitting hairs when I say that. 

These resumes are very similar in terms of strength of schedule, but Indiana has the most impressive win of the bunch having beaten the Ducks in Oregon back in early October. On the field, both teams have been similarly efficient offensively. Ohio State and Indiana are both top-15 in scoring, top-25 in total offense, top-2 in third-down conversion rate, and top-10 in both PPA per play and success rate on the season as a whole. Those numbers haven’t dropped off much recently, as the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers are top-10 in PPA per play, top-5 in success rate, and top-10 in points scored per quality drive outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks. 

It’s much the same on the other side of the ball, where the Hoosiers and the Buckeyes are top-10 in a vast majority of key season-long defensive metrics including scoring, total defense, and red-zone touchdown rate allowed. Like on the offensive side, that production hasn’t dropped off much in recent weeks, though Ohio State has been slightly better on a down-to-down basis – particularly against the pass. 

If you’re asking me to pick which one of these teams is most likely to go on to win the national title, I would say Ohio State. However, in this particular game, considering how even these teams are on paper and the potential, ever-so-slight motivational/situational advantage for the Hoosiers, I will lean to Indiana to keep this game within the number. After all, Indiana has slowly crept up my power ratings all year long to a point where the Hoosiers have been within 3 points of the Buckeyes for over a month. As such, I have OSU around a 2-point favorite in this neutral-site game, and will trust my projections with this pick. 

Big Ten Championship prediction: Indiana Hoosiers +4.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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The Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers battle for the ACC Championship less than a month removed from a regular season matchup that saw the Cavs dominate 34-17, limiting Duke to a whopping 42 rushing yards. While the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team twice” might hold up in some cases, Virginia won the first meeting comfortably, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a similar result. Duke squeaked into this game on the fifth tiebreaker and have allowed 33.3 points per game to their final 6 opponents of the season in a 3-3 stretch. On the contrary, the Virginia defense has produced results consistently this season behind a strong pass rush that averages 2.5 sacks per game. 

The Cavaliers rank top-30 in both success rate and net points per drive defensively. Duke has found itself in some shootouts this season, but proved to struggle against the Virginia front seven last time out. While the Virginia defense has been solid all year, it’s tough to say the same for a Duke unit that ranks 112th in defensive success rate and 114th in quality drive rate allowed. The Blue Devils primarily struggle against the pass which doesn’t bode well against Chandler Morris and co. If Morris can limit the turnovers — 2 of his 7 total INTs came against Duke — then Virginia has shown they are built to handle this Duke squad. I’ll take Virginia to cover the spread and claim the ACC title.

ACC Championship prediction: Virginia Cavaliers -4 over Duke Blue Devils (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Boise State will look to build off its impressive 102-76 win over Chaminade as they get ready to face Butler on Saturday afternoon. Boise State is averaging 78.4 points per game this season while shooting 44.4% from the field. Butler, meanwhile, is putting up 90 points per game and shooting 50.2% from the field.

The Bulldogs enter with a 3-game winning streak, and they are hoping Finley Bizjack delivers another big performance. Bizjack dropped 29 points, 2 rebounds and 4 assists against Eastern Michigan — bringing his season average to 19 points per game. The Bulldogs don’t just have the edge offensively; they are also going to create a lot of problems for Boise State in grabbing rebounds. Butler is averaging 48.6 rebounds per game, and the Broncos will need to find a way to prevent Michael Ajayi from crashing the glass; he is pulling in 12 rebounds per game. Boise State simply doesn’t have the talent offensively and doesn’t have an edge defensively, so this game has the potential to get out of hand early.  Look for Butler to control the tempo, dominate the boards and cruise to its fourth straight win against a much weaker opponent.

Boise State vs Butler prediction: Butler -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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Wisconsin welcomes in-state rival Marquette as it looks to build on a recent 85-73 win over Northwestern. The Golden Eagles are coming off a win of their own, defeating Valparaiso 75-72 in overtime. Marquette has struggled to start the season, averaging 81.4 points per game while giving up 74.2. The Badgers are slightly better, averaging 86.9 points per game while allowing 73.5.

The Badgers will lean on their top scoring duo, Nick Boyd (20.9 ppg) and John Blackwell (19.9 ppg), to set the tone. Marquette’s defense has been inconsistent, but Wisconsin’s offense has also shown stretches of uneven play. Marquette will lean on Chase Ross (20.3 ppg) and Nigel James Jr. (12.3 ppg), and perimeter shooting that is capable of keeping them in the game. Wisconsin is allowing opponents to shoot 35.8% from deep this season, and that’s something Marquette will look to take advantage of in this matchup. Despite its up-and-down start, Marquette has kept all of its losses within single-digits aside from a matchup with Indiana. Look for the Golden Eagles to give it their all and keep this game close — making them my best bet of the day. 

Marquette vs Wisconsin prediction: Marquette +11 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Maryland Terrapins will travel to Iowa City on Saturday for a Big Ten Conference game against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa is 0-1 in conference play following its blowout loss to Michigan State on Tuesday night, but I expect a bounce-back performance on its home floor against a less talented Maryland team. The Terrapins will open conference play on Saturday and are projected to start 0-1 as +13.5 underdogs. This is a big number, but I see Iowa covering the spread.

Iowa did not look good in its Big Ten opener, but I expect a much better performance in game 2. Maryland has not looked good against stuff competition this season and I do not see the Terps finding their way against a very well-coached and disciplined Iowa team. Maryland lost to Georgetown by 10, Gonzaga by 39 and Alabama by 33. The Terrapins’ defense has looked vulnerable in numerous games this year, as they gave up over 100 points to Gonzaga and Alabama. According to KenPom, Maryland’s defense is ranked #247 in effective field-goal percentage, #279 in 2-point percentage and #187 in 3-point percentage. On Bart Torvik, their defense is ranked #235 in adjusted defensive efficiency against top 100 opponents. I do not see them being able to stop this Iowa offense.

Iowa’s offense struggled against Michigan State but has been efficient in other games this year. The Hawkeyes play at a very slow pace but are led by one of the best guards in the country, Bennett Stirtz.  Their offense is ranked #17 in effective field-goal percentage and #16 in 2-point percentage. Their offense should have success in this one and they should be able to win the turnover battle, as their defense is one of the best in the country in turning opposing teams over and Maryland has issues taking care of the ball. I’m backing Iowa to cover.

Maryland vs Iowa prediction: Iowa -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -14.

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The Atlanta Hawks will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation when they visit the Washington Wizards on Saturday night. Zero days off, travel from Atlanta to Washington and the lingering feeling of a blown 23-point lead makes for a dreadful combination. As such, my Hawks vs Wizards prediction is on the home team to cover. The Hawks came out like gangbusters against the visiting Nuggets on Friday (Jalen Johnson had a triple-double by halftime), but Denver roared back for a 134-133 victory. A Trae Young-less Atlanta squad has now lost 3 straight games.

There is no doubt that the Hawks will be even further depleted on Sunday, as Kristaps Porzingis returned from an illness to take the court against Denver. Porzingis is not going to play both legs of a back-to-back in his current state — and possibly not in any state this season. Although the Wizards (3-18) are terrible, their most lopsided victory of the season has come against none other than these Hawks — a 132-113 beatdown in the nation’s capital on November 25. Washington may not make it 2 straight in the head-to-head, but at the very least it should cover a sizable spread in what is a favorable situational spot.

Hawks vs Wizards prediction: Washington +9.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.

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The Detroit Pistons were able to take down the Portland Trail Blazers last night and will now be on a back-to-back set, welcoming the Milwaukee Bucks to Little Caesars Arena. They have had success playing without a nights rest this season, winning 3 of 4 such games. The Pistons have, however, recently lost to the Bucks — but they will be taking on a different version of that team today. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for the visitors along with AJ Green. The latter has shot over 48 percent from deep this season and scored 19 points when the teams last met. Along with the former MVP, Green will be a big miss.

The Bucks have been on a poor run of form, having lost 8 of their last 10 games. During this stretch they have been in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive ratings. It is no surprise that they are coming into this game after a 15-point loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in their last outing. The Pistons have been in the top 10 in offensive rating this season and should prove to be too hard for the Bucks to slow down. Detroit will be helped by the fact that the Bucks are just 23rd in pace this season and also in the bottom 10 in fast-break points per game. It is exactly the type of opponent you would want to play to end a back-to-back. The Pistons should be well positioned to cover.

Bucks vs Pistons prediction: Detroit -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Friday night saw the Rockets dominate yet another opponent, as they took down the Phoenix Suns 117-98 at home. The game was competitive for about a quarter and a half, but then the Rockets just shifted into a different gear and built a 30-point lead at one point. Kevin Durant reached another career milestone scoring his 31,000th point. He finished with 28, while Amen Thompson led the all scorers with 33. Alperen Sengun’s absence was hardly felt; Steven Adams took his place in the middle and Houston once again won the rebounding battle.

Dallas also played last night, but unlike the Suns they were up against it — they faced the OKC Thunder. The score was tied after the first quarter, but then the Thunder just blew the door wide open. It was pretty obvious that the Mavericks cannot compete with one of the deepest teams in the league, but it was a good learning moment for rookie Cooper Flagg — who finished with 16 points. Anthony Davis had a game to forget, scoring just 2 points; the Thunder did a fabulous job containing the Mavs’ big man. Can Dallas recover? The Mavericks do have a 4-1 ATS record in 5 home games against the Rockets.

Division-rivalry games are always intense and fun to watch, even when the oddsmakers have one team favored by 10 points. Dallas hung in there when these 2 met a month ago in Houston, losing by 8 points. If Sengun is out, we could be in for a bounce-back performance by Davis. Houston wins, but the Mavs keep it within striking distance.

Rockets vs Mavericks prediction: Dallas +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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