Parlays

Golden Knights vs Hurricanes parlay pick: Under 5.5 (-102)

While both teams are more than capable of producing offensively, they have largely bullied their way to through their respective conferences by way of goal prevention. With that, the under has been rolling for both teams. The total has gone under in 4 out of Vegas’ last 6 games, and in 13 out of Carolina’s last 16 games. This postseason, the Hurricanes have allowed just 1.62 goals per game. That is the fewest goals per game among the 16 teams that qualified for the playoffs. Not far behind them are the Golden Knights, ranked 3rd with 2.38 goals allowed per game. 

Allowing 2.38 and 1.62 goals per game is impressive in itself. It is even more impressive considering the opponents the conference champions had to go through to get here. Vegas has allowed 2 or fewer goals in 5 out of their last 6 games. Those games were against the Ducks and Avalanche. Colorado led the NHL with 3.63 goals per game in the regular season, but only mustered up 7 goals in 4 games against Vegas. The Hurricanes have been even more impressive, having allowed 2 or fewer goals in 9 out of their last 10, and in 12 out of their 13 games played this season. Especially in Game 1, these teams will be focused on not forcing anything and sticking to what works. What has worked for both teams has been minimizing opponents’ high-percentage chances. That bodes well for another low total.

Golden Knights vs Hurricanes parlay pick: Sebastian Aho over 2.5 shots (+115)

With all due respect to the Senators, Flyers, and Canadiens, the Hurricanes did not exactly go through a gauntlet to get here. The Golden Knights present the toughest matchup the Hurricanes will have had, especially now that Vegas has played better as the postseason has progressed. As strong as Carolina has played, they will need to bring a little more to this series if they are going to hoist Lord Stanley. Not many people know that more than Sebastian Aho.

For years now and with as much talent as Carolina has had, Aho has been the Hurricanes’ superstar. When he was 21 years old in 2018-19, Aho had 30 goals and 83 points, finished 10th in Hart voting, and had 12 points in 15 playoff games. Since that season, he has been their guy. Oddly, the Hurricanes have been successful in these playoffs without much production from Aho. Now, the stakes are higher than they have ever been.

This is a guy that has been there for all of the heartbreak, and is as motivated as ever to get the job done. He has a great opportunity to do so, centering the top line between Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis, as well as the top power play with those guys plus Nikolaj Ehlers and Shayne Gostisbehere. Look for a hyper-motivated Sebastian Aho on Tuesday doing what he can to generate offense and create chances.

Golden Knights vs Hurricanes SGP pick: Frederik Andersen over 21.5 saves (-115)

Frederik Andersen is the 2nd favorite to win the Conn Smythe at +220 entering this series, and for good reason. He has been absolutely stellar this postseason. Andersen has a playoff-best 1.41 goals against average and 3 shutouts. If the Golden Knights are able to give the Hurricanes the challenge that they have not quite had to face, there is a good chance that Andersen will be up to it. An over 21.5 saves implies that Vegas may only average roughly 7 shots on goal per period that get stopped by Andersen. That is a low number for such an impressive team in great form like the Golden Knights and an impressive goaltender in great form like Andersen.

There appears to be a razor-thin margin of error between these teams. If this is as close of a game as it is expected to be, along with the series as a whole, that lends to a game plan of simplicity. Simplifying the game plans will have both teams playing their system, allowing low-percentage chances in lieu of minimizing high-percentage chances, and getting the puck on net to create chaos in front. With that, the Golden Knights are likely to get close to or exceed their 27 shots on goal per game average this postseason. That being the case, taking Andersen to make at least 22 saves brings nice value to this Golden Knights vs Hurricanes parlay.

Knicks vs Spurs parlay pick: Jalen Brunson 2+ made threes (-230)

Unlike in previous seasons where he would often run out of gas before even getting to the Conference Finals, this time around Jalen Brunson has gotten a lot more help from his teammates. Unlike Victor Wembanyama on the other side, Brunson has played 3 less full games and it shows. His scoring average and field goal efficiency are both up compared to the regular season, while his three-point shot has also been going in at a relatively efficient clip. He has a knack of doing well from the perimeter against the Spurs, the last 7 meetings have seen him clear this line 5 times.

During the regular season, Brunson shot the deep ball at a 47.4% clip against the Spurs, and he carried the offense in the NBA Cup Final win as well. I’m going with a slightly conservative approach for him in Game 1, making a pair of threes shouldn’t be too big of an ask. He’s done it 58 times in 89 games so far this season (65%), on the road that percentage goes up to 67% (30/45 games).

Knicks vs Spurs parlay pick: Karl-Anthony Towns to record a Double-Double (-240)

This is the moment of truth for Karl-Anthony Towns. The moment he arrived to New York City big things were expected from him and he has been under the spotlight ever since. In his first game as a Knick he wore a throwback shirt showing the Spurs vs Knicks NBA Finals match-up from 1999, making this the an ideal full circle moment for the big fella. However, he will have to adapt his game drastically if he wants his team to succeed in this series.

Going up against Victor Wembanyama will be a tall task, especially with Mitchell Robinson dealing with a broken pinky finger on his right hand. That means more minutes for Towns at the center position as the Knicks aren’t exactly equipped with tall centers that can go toe to toe with the alien down low. KAT is averaging 10.6 rebounds per game this postseason, that might look like it’s down compared to the regular season, but only because the Knicks were so good in the last two series that Towns didn’t even have to play his normal minutes. Look for him to be very active in Game 1 and dominante on the glass.

Knicks vs Spurs SGP pick: Dylan Harper 10+ points (-142)

Harper has risen to the occasion this postseason averaging 13.1 points per game which is an increase of 1.3 ppg compared to his season average. On top of that his efficiency also went up by 2% both from the field (52.5%) and from three (36.4%). He should feel right at home in this series, especially in games played at Madison Square Garden, given that he grew up in the tri-state area. I have Harper scoring at least 10 points in the opener as he has done so in 12 of his 18 games so far this postseason. For the season, the over on this bet has cashed 57 times in 88 games — good for a success rate of 65%. I quite like those odds, so let’s include him in our parlay for Game 1.

Knicks vs Spurs SGP pick: De’Aaron Fox 6+ assists (-130)

Playing on a bummed ankle did slow him down a bit, but De’Aaron Fox was still a major contributor in the series win over Oklahoma City, especially in Game 7 where he went off for 15 points and also dished out 5 assists. He finished the series averaging 6.2 dimes per game, which is in line with his postseason average of 5.9 per game. The Knicks had major problems guarding him in the two regular season meetings, his combination of speed and quickness was too much to handle for the likes of Brunson and others trying to contain him.

Fox averaged 6.5 assists in the regular season meetings, while he dished out 9 of them in the NBA Cup matchup, as the Spurs offense went through mostly him and Stephon Castle. Although he has not played on the biggest stage yet, Fox is one of the more experienced players on this Spurs roster and I’m convinced that’ll have a massive impact on the rest of his teammates as they try to feed off his playmaking.