Parlays

The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry and have lost 5 of their last 7 games as they prepare to visit the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday night. Curry has missed the past 2 contests because of a quadriceps injury and is expected to be sidelined for at least another week. That is a big reason why my Warriors vs 76ers pick is for the home team to win and cover. Golden State managed to beat the lowly Pelicans this past Saturday despite missing its star player, but it lost to Oklahoma City 124-112 on Tuesday — not exactly a terrible result given the Thunder’s prowess. Head coach Steve Kerr’s crew could be in additional trouble on Thursday since Jimmy Butler is questionable due to knee soreness.

Philadelphia also comes in with questions. This is the first leg of a back-to-back situation and Paul George has been cleared to play in 1 of the 2 games, but not both. It remains to be seen if George plays on Thursday or against Milwaukee on Friday. Joel Embiid is doubtful with a knee problem, but that is nothing new for the Sixers. They know how to win without the big man. Their backcourt duo of Tyrese Maxey and rookie VJ Edgecombe is good to go — that alone should be enough to handle a Curry-less Golden State squad.

Warriors vs 76ers prediction: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 (-114) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Brooklyn Nets were able to pick up an impressive win last night against the Chicago Bulls on the road. Tonight, they will return home to take on the Utah Jazz in what will be their second night of a back-to-back set. Their home form has been abysmal so far this season, with just 1 win from 10 games — the worst mark in the NBA. With the team also losing all of their 4 games that they have played with no rest, including a point differential of -18.5 in those contests, they could be in for a long and difficult night here.

The Jazz have shown positive signs of late too, having won 2 of their last 3 games, including a contest against the Houston Rockets. Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen both went off for 28 and 29 points in that game, respectively, and should be able to keep that form going against the Nets. This season, the hosts are 28th in defensive rating and with fatigue playing a factor, they could struggle playing against a team that has ranked 4th in pace. The visitors should be able to control the glass in this one too, as they rank 8th in rebounding percentage this season. With the Nets just 26th in that category, look for the Jazz  to close out possessions effectively and be a presence on the offensive glass as well. Back them to cover the spread.

Jazz vs Nets prediction: Utah Jazz -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Jazz 6.5.

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Despite not having Luka Doncic at their disposal, the LA Lakers head into Toronto as just 1.5 point underdogs. Doncic is currently out of the line-up attending a personal matter, the oddsmakers have a lot of faith in this Lakers team at the moment. Someone else will have to step into the playmaker role in his absence, head coach JJ Redick has to find a way to compensate for Luka’s 35.3 points, 8.9 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game. Will it be LeBron James? The soon-to-be 41 year old has a history with Toronto, however his age has started to show this season, he barely got to 10 points in his last game vs Phoenix.

Toronto’s form has been up and down a bit lately, but the good news is they were able to bounce back from back-to-back defeats to Charlotte and New York by beating a solid Portland team 121-118 at home. This is one of the better home teams in the NBA at 8-2 SU. When playing at home the Raptors have the 4th best defensive efficiency, the 7th best assist percentage and they also shoot the 8th highest effective field goal percentage. We all know the Lakers love to push the tempo and score a ton of points, aside from RJ Barrett being out injured, I don’t see anything else that can slow this team down at the moment.

No Luka means trouble for the Lakers. I’m sure Austin Reaves will do his best to carry the team on his back, but I don’t think LA can overcome the absence of Doncic here. Brandon Ingram and co. have been solid in home games, I have them covering the spread here.

LA Lakers vs Toronto Raptors Predictions: Raptors -1.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Colorado Avalanche will kick off a 4-game road trip in Long Island as they visit the New York Islanders. The Avalanche have been off to a very impressive start, led by Hart Trophy candidate Nathan MacKinnon. Through his first 26 games, he has 46 points. He is supported by linemate Martin Necas — who has 33 on the season — and superstar defenseman Cale Makar with 32. As a team, they have only lost one game in regulation time, and they are 9-0-1 in their last 10 games. They are both the best offensive and defensive team in the league, averaging an insane 2.04 goals against per game — 0.48 less goals against per game than the next closest team. Colorado has been a powerhouse.

The Islanders took down a very good team in the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game on home ice, but the Avalanche are on a different level. The 2.85 goals per game that the Islanders offense averages will not be enough to keep pace with the Avalanche, so I will take Colorado to win this one in regulation.

Avalanche vs Islanders prediction: Avs 3-way ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning clash on Thursday night in the NHL. Pittsburgh hits the road to take on a team tied for the Eastern Conference lead with 34 points, but 3 points away from them with 1 game in hand. Points are crucial, and I expect a full effort from both teams. To get you set for what will be a great battle, here is our Penguins vs. Lightning prediction.

These teams are both filled with offensive abilities. In Tampa Bay (3.27 goals per game), they are lead by the likes of Nikita Kucherov (32 points), Brandon Hagel (15 goals) and Jake Guentzel (14 goals), and their offense has been absolutely clicking. Pittsburgh (3.16 goals per game) is lead by veterans Sidney Crosby (18 goals and 29 points) and Evgeni Malkin (26 points). There has been an offensive resurgence within this team. Both have done very well defensively this season as well, but I see offense taking center stage. Each team is within the top-8 in goals per game, and present extremely talented and offensively gifted lineups. I see them combining for a ton of results in this one. For our Penguins vs. Lightning prediction, take the over 6.0.

Penguins vs. Lightning prediction: Over 6.0 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that total to (-130).

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Thursday night in the NHL brings us a Western Conference matchup between the Minnesota Wild and Calgary Flames. These two met back in early November in a 2-0 Wild win, so the Flames will be looking for payback here. Considering Calgary has been playing surprisingly well as of late, it may just do just that. Here is our Wild vs. Flames prediction.

The Minnesota Wild have clearly been the hottest team in the NHL. They are an astonishing 11-0-2 in their last 13 games, which includes taking down league leaders like the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes, and Anaheim Ducks. Calgary is 5-3-2 over its last 10 games which is good for its standards, but this should be one of Minnesota’s easier opponents during this current run. Young Flames studs Sam Honzek and Zayne Parekh, as well as depth forward Martin Pospisil, are out long-term with injuries, hindering an already shallow team. They are a disappointing 9-15-4 overall, which has them last in the NHL. The level of firepower, momentum, and morale does not compare with these teams right now. Minnesota is just too hot and has much more to play for in a challenging Central Division, so I don’t expect to give up this opportunity. For our Wild vs. Flames prediction, take Minnesota on the money line.

Wild vs. Flames prediction: Minnesota Wild ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to (-150).

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The Big 12 Championship will be the first one out of the gates on Saturday afternoon, slated to kick off at 11:00 am local time from Arlington, TX. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are 11-1 entering this game and a lock for the playoffs, and their only loss came at Arizona State while missing their quarterback. BYU also comes in at 11-1, and the Cougars’ only loss came to the Red Raiders. Yet somehow, the selection committee seems to think BYU isn’t a playoff team if they lose this game. That makes no sense to me. BYU is really good, and definitely worthy of the playoffs; the problem here, though, is that Texas Tech is the perfectly wrong matchup for the Cougars, and the Red Raiders ought to win this game comfortably as a result. My BYU vs. Texas Tech best bet is the Red Raiders -12.5.

BYU is a strong, physical, bullying team. That has been very effective against everyone in the Big 12 except for Texas Tech. That is because Tech is bigger, more physical, and more of a bully. To me, this matchup is simple: these teams are similarly constructed, but Tech is just bigger and better at it. For BYU to pull the upset, it will likely take things like trick plays, funny bounces and turnovers, and special teams anomalies. Just lining up and playing? Red Raiders all day long. Did you know that Texas Tech is 11-1 against the spread on the year also? That is to say, they don’t just win; they cover. And more importantly, it means that the betting market consistently mis-evaluates this team and fails to recognize just how good they are. Folks, this team can win the whole thing if all their players stay healthy.

The first matchup went 29-7 to the Red Raiders. It was in Lubbock, College GameDay was there, Patrick Mahomes, the whole thing. The Red Raiders totally dominated the line of scrimmage, and the BYU freshman QB was overwhelmed. But here is the kicker—the Red Raiders didn’t even play well in that game. Their offense consistently stalled out in the red zone, and they kept kicking field goals that prevented this game from being a total route. Texas Tech is really good, and playing in Jerry World might as well still be a home game. I think they win by 2 touchdowns (and the committee should still let BYU into the playoffs).

BYU vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech Red Raiders -12.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Western Michigan has been the hottest team in the MAC, winning 8 of 9 and cashing spreads at a 6-2-1 clip. That streak has created a massive wave of market confidence, and bettors continue piling onto the Broncos. But the line tells a different story: despite all that momentum, WMU is laying less than a field goal in the MAC title game. That’s the first indicator the market doesn’t fully trust them in this one.

Miami (OH) comes in off dominant wins over Ball State and Buffalo, but what happened before those results is pivotal. The RedHawks suffered a blowout loss against Toledo and a loss at Ohio, where the market was backing them in a revenge spot. From a distance, Miami looks like a team that can’t grapple with any decent opposition that the MAC has to offer. That makes WMU laying less than a field goal appealing. And then there is what really matters: last year’s embarrassment in this exact championship spot. The RedHawks were routed, and the market remembers that — but this is their chance to correct that. Western Michigan is priced at its ceiling, while Miami is undervalued. This is the chance to move in hard on the RedHawks. I’m backing them to win the MAC.

Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan prediction: Miami (OH) ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Amid all of the conference realignment and transfer portal chaos, the SEC Championship consists of a matchup that college football fans know all too well. On Saturday, the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide will battle for a conference championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where the Bulldogs just played last week against Georgia Tech. As it stands, no matter who wins this game, Alabama and Georgia will have accounted for 11 of the last 12 SEC champions, and this will be the 4th time these two programs have met for a conference title in that span. 

The last time Alabama met Georgia in this spot, the Tide knocked off the #1 Bulldogs, which ultimately put the Tide into the then-4-team College Football Playoff and booted the ‘Dawgs out. Since then, the Tide and the ‘Dawgs have met twice in a regular season setting, both of which resulted in Alabama wins under Kalen DeBoer. As you probably know, Kirby Smart is just 1-7 SU against Alabama since he took over as the head coach in Athens.

I picked Alabama to win the SEC Championship (and the National Championship) back before the season started, and I have no reason to jump off the boat now – even with the Tide putting me through the ringer seemingly every week. When Alabama went into Athens and snapped Georgia’s 33-game, nearly 6-year home winning streak back in September, the Bulldogs were laying 2.5 points. Fast forward to this upcoming matchup, and you will see Georgia is favored by that same margin. Well, on the surface it looks the same, but being favored by 2.5 points on a neutral would mean oddsmakers have Georgia around a 5.5-point favorite – give or take a half-point or so – if this game was played in Athens this weekend. I simply disagree with that, as I have this game much closer to a pick ‘em on a neutral. 

There’s not much to pick apart with these teams that you don’t already know. Simply put, these are two of the best teams in college football on both sides of the line of scrimmage. By the numbers, Georgia has been more efficient offensively over the last month and some change, but the Bulldogs have played a worse collection of defenses in that span compared to the Tide. However, on the opposite side of the ball and against a similarly mediocre collection of offenses, Alabama has the better efficiency metrics of late. For reference, the Tide are top-5 in PPA per play and points allowed per quality drive since Week 10, which includes top-15 marks on standard downs and passing downs, as well as against both the run and the pass. As a cherry on top, the Tide are top-15 in havoc generated over that span, and they are slightly better at preventing touchdowns than the Bulldogs on the same amount of red-zone trips allowed this season. 

It might be beneficial to wait for a potential 3 to pop in the market, but if one does appear, it won’t last very long. All things considered, I’ll lean to Alabama at the current price. 

SEC Championship prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide +2.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (+100) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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The top 2 teams in the country will meet in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday night when the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers clash at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. These are the only undefeated teams left in the country, so whoever wins this game will be the lone undefeated team going into the CFP as the #1 seed. The loser will still likely get a first-round bye, so other than the official moniker of being Big Ten Champions, there isn’t much at risk for either of these teams if we’re being honest with ourselves. Though, I am still of the opinion that winning a conference championship is a significant milestone that should continue to be celebrated. 

That said, there’s an argument to be made that this could be a flat spot for the Buckeyes. Having gotten the Michigan monkey off its back, Ohio State could fall victim to the dreaded hangover here, especially now that its sights are likely set more on repeating as national champions than winning the Big Ten title. Of course, I am speculating, but given the fact that this is Indiana’s first-ever Big Ten Championship appearance on the gridiron, motivation might be slightly higher for the Hoosiers here – though, again, I will admit I’m splitting hairs when I say that. 

These resumes are very similar in terms of strength of schedule, but Indiana has the most impressive win of the bunch having beaten the Ducks in Oregon back in early October. On the field, both teams have been similarly efficient offensively. Ohio State and Indiana are both top-15 in scoring, top-25 in total offense, top-2 in third-down conversion rate, and top-10 in both PPA per play and success rate on the season as a whole. Those numbers haven’t dropped off much recently, as the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers are top-10 in PPA per play, top-5 in success rate, and top-10 in points scored per quality drive outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks. 

It’s much the same on the other side of the ball, where the Hoosiers and the Buckeyes are top-10 in a vast majority of key season-long defensive metrics including scoring, total defense, and red-zone touchdown rate allowed. Like on the offensive side, that production hasn’t dropped off much in recent weeks, though Ohio State has been slightly better on a down-to-down basis – particularly against the pass. 

If you’re asking me to pick which one of these teams is most likely to go on to win the national title, I would say Ohio State. However, in this particular game, considering how even these teams are on paper and the potential, ever-so-slight motivational/situational advantage for the Hoosiers, I will lean to Indiana to keep this game within the number. After all, Indiana has slowly crept up my power ratings all year long to a point where the Hoosiers have been within 3 points of the Buckeyes for over a month. As such, I have OSU around a 2-point favorite in this neutral-site game, and will trust my projections with this pick. 

Big Ten Championship prediction: Indiana Hoosiers +4.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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The Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers battle for the ACC Championship less than a month removed from a regular season matchup that saw the Cavs dominate 34-17, limiting Duke to a whopping 42 rushing yards. While the cliché of “it’s hard to beat a team twice” might hold up in some cases, Virginia won the first meeting comfortably, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw a similar result. Duke squeaked into this game on the fifth tiebreaker and have allowed 33.3 points per game to their final 6 opponents of the season in a 3-3 stretch. On the contrary, the Virginia defense has produced results consistently this season behind a strong pass rush that averages 2.5 sacks per game. 

The Cavaliers rank top-30 in both success rate and net points per drive defensively. Duke has found itself in some shootouts this season, but proved to struggle against the Virginia front seven last time out. While the Virginia defense has been solid all year, it’s tough to say the same for a Duke unit that ranks 112th in defensive success rate and 114th in quality drive rate allowed. The Blue Devils primarily struggle against the pass which doesn’t bode well against Chandler Morris and co. If Morris can limit the turnovers — 2 of his 7 total INTs came against Duke — then Virginia has shown they are built to handle this Duke squad. I’ll take Virginia to cover the spread and claim the ACC title.

ACC Championship prediction: Virginia Cavaliers -4 over Duke Blue Devils (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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