Parlays

This matchup has the feel of a March Madness game even though the calendar hasn’t yet reached the Big Ten tournament. On paper, Purdue and Wisconsin share several similarities. Both teams average over 80 points per game, both take care of the basketball extremely well, and neither side is prone to careless turnovers. In many respects, the statistical profiles of these two programs look very similar at first glance. However, the key difference lies in how each team prefers to control the game. Wisconsin operates at a more moderate tempo and leans heavily on its perimeter offense. The Badgers are at their best when the ball moves quickly and the three-point shot is falling. Their spacing and outside shooting are essential components of their offensive identity.

Purdue, meanwhile, brings a very different style. The Boilermakers are comfortable slowing the game down and forcing opponents to play in a more controlled half-court environment. Their pace numbers rank outside the top 315 nationally, illustrating how methodical they can be offensively. Purdue values possession, limits mistakes, and pairs that approach with a defense capable of disrupting rhythm offenses. That contrast becomes especially important inside Mackey Arena, where Purdue historically thrives. Wisconsin’s reliance on perimeter shooting introduces volatility in a hostile environment. If those outside shots aren’t falling, the Badgers can struggle to keep up. Purdue’s balance of disciplined offense, strong defense, and home-court control makes the Boilermakers the side to back in a game they can easily win big.

Wisconsin vs Purdue prediction: Purdue -8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.

The Ohio State Buckeyes host the Indiana Hoosiers in an important B1G clash. The Buckeyes seem to have played themselves onto the safe side of the bubble over the past few games, while Indiana may be sitting on the wrong side of the cut line if they drop this one on the road. Ohio State beat Purdue last week, then kept the momentum going with a win at Penn State. Indiana, on the other hand, broke a 4-game losing streak with a win this week over Minnesota. The Buckeyes have been playing better basketball lately, and I trust them at home. Give me Ohio State -4.5.

Ohio State ranks inside the top 30 in both KenPom and Torvik rankings, and that is probably a surprise to most folks. They had some injury problems a few weeks ago, but once they got healthy, they started playing well again. This team is pretty good on both sides of the ball. Indiana is a metrics darling that does not seem to translate into wins on the court. Right now, I just can’t trust them to be a good team, especially on the road, where the Hoosiers are 3-7. Road trips in the major conferences are tough in general, and I think Indiana is in trouble here. Give me the Buckeyes.

Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction: Ohio State -4.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

UCLA is coming off a big win against then-No. 9 Nebraska, where they shot 46.7% from the floor. As for USC, they have now dropped six games in a row and have struggled to find any rhythm offensively. Their defense has also been a complete mess, giving up 85.8 points per game during their losing streak. The Bruins have been competitive all season long, and the last time these two teams met, UCLA defeated USC 81-62 on their home court while shooting 49.2% compared to the Trojans 35%. 

Offensively, UCLA has been middle of the pack this season, averaging 77.6 points per game compared to USC’s 78.9. Defensively, however, the Bruins have the clear edge, holding opponents to just 71 points per game. We saw that defensive intensity in their last matchup when they forced Nebraska into 13 turnovers. UCLA also brings a balanced scoring attack with five players averaging double figures, while USC lacks the depth and consistency to keep up with that type of offensive balance. The Trojans are in a downward spiral with little momentum, while the Bruins will look to build off their biggest win of the season against Nebraska. Look for UCLA to take care of business as they get ready to carry this momentum into the Big Ten Tournament. 

UCLA vs USC prediction: UCLA -6.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Buffalo Sabres are on a 5-game winning streak and they are 11-2-1 in their last 14 overall as they prepare to host the Nashville Predators on Saturday evening. Since returning from the Olympic break, Buffalo has reeled off recent wins over New Jersey, Florida, Tampa Bay, Vegas and Pittsburgh — all in regulation. There is no reason to think that this red-hot team is about to slow down, so my Predators vs Sabres pick is for the home side to prevail. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to be in the net on Saturday, which would be great news for Buffalo. UPL is 14-7-2 this season with a 2.55 goals-against average and .910 save percentage. The Sabres have allowed a grand total of 8 goals during this 5-game surge.

The Predators, on the other hand, were playing poorly prior to the break and nothing has changed upon the resumption of play. They have lost 3 of their last 4 contests and 10 of their last 15. It is expected to be an all-Finnish goalie showdown this weekend, with Nashville likely to start Juuse Saros. He has thoroughly underwhelmed in 2025-26 to the tune of a 3.18 goals-against average and .892 save percentage. The Sabres are 18-8-3 at home this season; the Predators are 11-13-5 on the road. The price on the money line is rather steep, so let’s go with Buffalo to get the job done in regulation.

Predators vs Sabres prediction: Buffalo 3-way ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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The Philadelphia Flyers will face the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday for the battle of Pennsylvania. The Flyers come into this one winning 3 of their last 5 games. The issue is that in this span they have only managed to score 10 total goals. On the season they rank 12th in the Eastern Conference. Similar to their last 5 games, scoring has been an issue — as they are only averaging 2.80 goals per game. The Flyers also give up 3.08 goals while allowing 38 powerplay goals. Overall, the Flyers will be hoping for a better outcome in this game — but it will be a difficult challenge.

The Penguins currently rank sixth in the Eastern Conference. They are averaging 3.34 goals per game while only allowing 2.82. They also rank ninth in total shots, averaging 29.2 per game. What is most impressive is that the Penguins are scoring on 25.3% of their powerplay chances while their penalty kill is effective 84.5% of the time. Additionally, the Penguins hold the edge over the Flyers in shooting percentage and save percentage on the season. Putting it all together, the Penguins have the edge across the board in this game and will be looking to continue distancing themselves from other teams in the playoff race. I am rolling with Pittsburgh.

Flyers vs Penguins prediction: Pittsburgh ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Islanders will be in San Jose on Saturday night to take on the Sharks. This will be the first game for the Islanders following the trade deadline, and newly acquired Brayden Schenn is expected to be in the lineup. He is projected to center the second line, which adds depth to this team down the middle of the ice with Jean-Gabriel Pageau sliding down to the third line center role. The Islanders will be catching the Sharks on the second half of a back-to-back, as they played Friday night in a game that went to overtime. The main difference between these teams is the quality of their defensive play and goaltending. The Islanders are the fifth-best defensive team in the league, averaging 2.81 goals against per game. A large part of this can be credited to the play of netminder Ilya Sorokin. He is 22-14-2 on the season with a 2.53 GAA and .913 SVP. He is projected to get the start.

The Sharks are the third-worst defensive team in the league, averaging 3.48 goals against per game. Their offensive production isn’t strong enough to outscore their defensive mistakes on a nightly basis. The Islanders are a more complete team, and I will be siding with them in this game.

Islanders vs Sharks prediction: New York ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Philadelphia just ended a mini 2-game slide with a win over the Utah Jazz — but it was far from a convincing performance by Tyrese Maxey and company, as they won just 4 points. Their backs are against the wall on Saturday as they take on the in-form Hawks. Atlanta has won all 3 meetings so far this season and is on an 8-game winning streak in the head-to-head. No Joel Embiid and most likely VJ Edgecombe means that the Sixers have only one reliable scoring option here in Tyrese Maxey. Philly has covered 3 times in 10 games, while against the Hawks it is just 1-4 ATS in the last 5.

The Hawks spoiled the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo in their last game as they took down the Milwaukee Bucks for their fifth win in a row. They are once again back over the .500 mark, and this is only the second time this season they’ve won this many games in a row. On the injury front there are no major concerns apart from Jonathan Kuminga being a game-time decision, but his injury is a minor one and he should be ready. During the winning streak, the offense has been clicking on all cylinders — Atlanta is scoring 122.3 points per 100 possessions. What should make Hawks fans even happier are their performances on the other end, with only the Knicks having a better defensive rating during this stretch.

It would take a major collapse on the Hawks part for them not to win this game. Jalen Johnson has been absolutely unstoppable in this matchup this season, averaging 28.3 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game. The Sixers won’t have an answer for him. If Atlanta can shut down Maxey on offense, this is a wrap. I’ll take the Hawks.

76ers vs Hawks prediction: Atlanta -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This matchup is being priced almost entirely through the lens of perception. Detroit is the hottest team in the Eastern Conference and is currently carrying the reputation of a contender, while Brooklyn is viewed as the bottom of the barrel. That contrast naturally pushes the market toward Detroit and inflates the number to the point where the Nets only become worth considering once the spread grows large enough to attract attention. That threshold has likely been reached.

The Pistons may very well control the game, but covering a number this large requires sustained separation for most of the night. That becomes difficult in a game where the projected total sits around 216, signaling a slower, more defensive environment. Lower totals generally reduce the number of possessions, and fewer possessions make it harder for favorites to create and maintain large margins. In games expected to be defensive and deliberate, every possession carries more weight. If Detroit controls the pace and the game plays closer to the projected total, the Pistons would need an extremely efficient offensive night to stretch the margin far enough.

This is less about believing in Brooklyn and more about the price attached to Detroit. With such a large spread in a lower-scoring environment, the value lies in taking the points and accepting the uncomfortable side.

Nets vs Pistons prediction: Brooklyn +14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Oklahoma City is at home with its roster at full strength, which naturally commands a premium in the betting market. The Thunder have long established themselves as the elite side in the league, and when the defending champs play on their home floor in good health, the market tends to price them accordingly. That dynamic helps explain why this spread has climbed into the 2-touchdown range.

But the conversation is not which team is better. It’s whether the favorite can realistically create that level of separation. The total for the game sits around 219, which signals a more controlled scoring environment. Lower totals generally mean fewer possessions, and fewer possessions make it much harder for favorites to maintain large margins throughout the game. Golden State’s offensive profile overall still makes it a dangerous team to lay this many points against. The Warriors nonetheless operate with significant 3-point volume and spacing, which creates natural volatility. Even if Oklahoma City controls the majority of the game, one eruption can quickly shrink a lead — even if it’s well over 20 points hypothetically. Large spreads often come down to late-game dynamics, as well. If the Thunder are comfortably ahead, the Warriors’ perimeter shooting gives them a realistic backdoor path. Let’s take the points.

Warriors vs Thunder prediction: Golden State +14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +14.

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