Parlays

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The Northwestern Wildcats and the Purdue Boilermakers will meet in Chicago for day three of the Big 10 Tournament. This will be game three for the Wildcats already as they played Penn State on Tuesday night to start their postseason run. Purdue is just the #7 seed in the tournament despite being the preseason #1 team in the country. They have not looked like a national championship contender most people expected, but they are still a great team that could make a run in this league tournament. The Boilermakers are -10.5 and that is my best bet of the game.

I like Purdue to bounce back from their loss to Wisconsin on Saturday and make a statement here. The Boilermakers are 6-4 over their last 10 games but are still ranked #8 nationally at Bart Torvik throughout that span. They have one of the best offenses in college basketball that I believe will allow them to cover this spread. Since February 1^st, Purdue is ranked #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, #37 in effective field goal percentage, #34 in offensive rebounding percentage and #30 in three-point percentage at Bart Torvik. Northwestern’s not a good rebounding team and their three-point defense has not been good recently, so I expect Purdue to expose them there. The Wildcat’s defense is ranked just #287 in effective field goal percentage, #359 in offensive rebouncing percentage and #298 in three-point defense since February 1^st. I do not see their defense being good enough in their third game in three days, so take TCU here.

Northwestern vs Purdue: Purdue Boilermakers -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.

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The Big East tournament keeps on rolling along on Thursday with a matchup that appears to be pretty lopsided on paper. On one side, the Xavier Musketeers are nearing the end of a disappointing season, but they still were able to knock off Marquette as a short underdog on Wednesday. Conversely, the UConn Huskies squandered their chance to capture the Big East regular season title last Saturday when they lost to Marquette in a game that saw head coach Dan Hurley get ejected and UConn fall short in a furious comeback attempt late in the second half. While it’s not my favorite play on the board on Thursday, we do have a clear bounce-back spot on our hands in favor of UConn, and I intend to take advantage.

Historically, Hurley’s team has responded well when coming off a loss, and that trend has continued into this season. Most recently, the Huskies followed up a disastrous loss at home to Creighton by picking up a much-needed win at Villanova, before demolishing St. John’s at home a few days later. We can expect a similar result in this matchup, especially given the series history between these programs this season. UConn has won both meetings by massive margins, with the Huskies defeating Xavier by 23 and 32 points respectively. The Musketeers are also a very poor defensive team, which sets up a spot for UConn’s offense to get hot from beyond the arc and attack the paint against a unit that is outside the top 300 in 2-point percentage allowed (BartTorvik). Look for UConn to establish an early lead and run away with this one in the second half.

Xavier vs UConn prediction: UConn -14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to UConn -15

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The #6 seed TCU Horned Frogs are coming off a strong offensive performance against Oklahoma State, shooting 50.7% from the floor — something they’ll look to carry into this matchup against the #3 seed Kansas Jayhawks. TCU is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now, winning 9 of their last 10 games. Kansas, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, winning just 3 of their last 7 matchups. The last time these teams met, Kansas walked away with a 104-100 victory in overtime. Both offenses were very efficient, with Kansas shooting 52% and TCU at 47%. The big difference was Flory Bidunga’s presence inside, as he scored 16 points and 9 rebounds.

On the season, these teams were fairly even on paper. TCU ranks 10th in offense, averaging 78.6 points per game compared to Kansas 76.5. Defensively, Kansas holds the edge, allowing 69.3 points per game compared to TCU’s 71.7. Kansas enters this matchup well rested and is coming off an impressive 104-85 win over Kansas State to close out the regular season, which should give them some confidence heading into this tournament. TCU, however, has already played a game in this tournament and has a lot of momentum on their side. While Kansas holds the advantage in interior defense and rebounding, one explosive offensive performance doesn’t erase the inconsistency the Jayhawks have shown down the stretch. TCU has proven capable of competing with Kansas, and with the way the Horned Frogs have been playing lately, they’re more than capable of keeping this game close. 

TCU vs Kansas prediction: TCU Horned Frogs +5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Detroit is 46-18 and Philadelphia is 35-30, so the instinct is to assume this spread is justified on class alone. Add in that the Pistons are playing at home and the penchant is even greater. But once a number gets past two full touchdowns, it stops being about who is better and starts being about how many clean possessions the favorite needs to create separation. In a game lined with a total at only 221.0, that is a meaningful hurdle. Lower totals often means reduced possession count, and when possessions shrink, big spreads become harder to cash.

Big underdogs like the Sixers in lower-total games benefit from simple arithmetic: they can be clearly second-best and still stay inside the number if the game never gets loose. Detroit does not need to win by 15 to validate being the better team; it just needs to control the night. Those are different tasks. At 221.0, a few empty Pistons trips or one flat offensive quarter can change the cover math completely. The line and total together imply a controlled game, and controlled games are not ideal environments for laying this much wood. Philadelphia is the side. For better or for worse.

76ers vs Pistons prediction: Philadelphia 76ers +14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +14.

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Denver just celebrated a dominant win over the Houston Rockets last night, but now they have the tough task of going into San Antonio and facing the red-hot Spurs. The Rockets held their ground in the first half of last night’s game, but they just ran out of energy in the third quarter, which is normal for a team playing on a back-to-back scenario. Now the Nuggets are in the same boat, facing one of the elite teams in the NBA, so I’m curious to see how they respond. So far this season it hasn’t been that big of an issue, with them going 9-5 SU in 14 such games. However, they’re only 1-4 SU in 5 meetings with the Spurs and have covered only once in the last 6 against them.

Since the beginning of February, the Spurs have lost only once in 17 games, which makes them the best team in the league right now. This past week has seen Victor Wembanyama shift into a new gear, as he’s lead the team in scoring in 4 consecutive games averaging over 30 per game. He’s listed as ‘day-to-day’ here due to a minor ankle issue, but with enough time to rest in between games, I do not believe that’ll be an issue. San Antonio actually won the first meeting of the season between these two sides without Wemby, getting 35 points from Devin Vassell and a balanced effort overall with 7 players scoring in double figures.

San Antonio is the team to beat right now in the NBA. They’ve not yet given up on the top seed in the West with the OKC Thunder being just 2.5 games ahead. Playing a team that’s on a 2nd night of a back-to-back, you just have to like their chances here. Spurs also have the superior head-to-head track record in recent meetings, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt here and lay the points.

Nuggets vs Spurs Predictions: San Antonio Spurs -5.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It will be a potential NBA Finals preview when the Oklahoma City Thunder entertain the Boston Celtics on Thursday night. Defending champion Oklahoma City leads the Western Conference, while Boston is second in the East and has its sights set on the #1 seed now that Jayson Tatum is back on the floor and Detroit is scuffling a bit at the moment. Boston is probably too good to be getting a sizable number of points, so my Celtics vs Thunder prediction is for the visitors to cover. The C’s fell at San Antonio earlier this week, but they started their road trip with a victory at Cleveland and they boast a 14-4 record in their last 18 contests. Tatum has played in 3 games upon his return and is averaging 19.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg and 3.7 apg while logging exactly 27 minutes on each occasion.

Oklahoma City is also winning its fair share of games, but it isn’t crushing people. In their last 15 outings, the Thunder have prevailed by double-digits only 3 times. Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein are still sidelined, so why should be expect anything to change now that OKC has to face one of the best teams in the NBA? That being said, both Tatum and White are questionable for Thursday. It’s a load management thing for Tatum, while White has a minor knee contusion. It sounds like both should be available, but you never know. Let’s take Boston plus the points, but proceed with caution until their statuses are confirmed.

Celtics vs Thunder prediction: Boston Celtics +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Macklin Celebrini and the San Jose Sharks take on David Pastrnak and the Boston Bruins on Thursday. The two met in November where the Sharks defended home ice in a 3-1 win, but how will this one shake out? Here is our Sharks vs. Bruins prediction to get you set.

Boston has been quite a back-and-forth team of late, as they are 4-2-2 in their last eight games dating back to February 1st, and have not won or lost multiple games in a row during that span. However, they are 4-0-0 on home ice during that span and have won an unbelievable 13 straight times at their home TD Garden. This now has them with a 25-8-1 record on home ice, and in the thick of a tight playoff battle, I don’t see this success slowing down. San Jose doesn’t come into this game particularly hot, as they have now lost 3 straight games and will be suiting up for their second of a grueling 5-game road trip. The Sharks are also taking on a strong offense that beats them in goals per game (3.31 vs. 3.06), power play (24.9% vs. 20.0), and shooting percentage (12.2% vs. 11.8%). This will be a fun battle between teams gunning for the playoffs, but our Sharks vs. Bruins prediction sides with Boston on the money line.

Sharks vs. Bruins prediction: Boston Bruins ML (-170) available at time of publishing. Playable to (-180).

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The New Jersey Devils are looking to get back on track on Thursday night when they host the Calgary Flames at the Prudential Center. The Devils had reeled off 4 straight wins before falling to the Red Wings by a score of 3-0 on Sunday. New Jersey has a strong scheduling advantage in this one, as Sheldon Keefe’s squad has not played since that matchup against Detroit on Sunday, giving them 3 days of rest between games. On the other side, the Flames are in the midst of a 5-game road trip and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. The Flames have lost each of their first 2 games on the trip, falling to the Capitals 7-3 on Monday and the Rangers 4-0 on Tuesday.

The Flames have struggled on the road all season long, as they own a less-than-ideal record of 9-20-3 away from the Scotiabank Saddledome so far this season. Calgary has also moved on from some key pieces in recent weeks, trading away veterans Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri, and Mackenzie Weegar. The Flames were already having a tough season, but finishing out the campaign without those veteran presences could make for a long final stretch of the season. After struggling for most of the season, the New Jersey offense has woken up lately scoring 18 total goals over its 4-game win streak. After being held off the scoreboard entirely in their last contest, I am confident that the Devils can take care of business and find the win column against the Flames.

Flames vs Devils best bet: New Jersey Devils ML (-185) available at time of publishing. Playable to -195.

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The Seattle Kraken will host the juggernaut Colorado Avalanche on Thursday night. These teams are on a collision course to meet in the first round of the playoffs if the Kraken can manage to hang onto the final wild card spot. The Avalanche will be looking to make a statement in this game. The Avalanche are both the best offensive and defensive team in the league, while averaging an impressive 3.78 goals for per game and only 2.44 against. The Kraken are a very weak offensive team, averaging only 2.83 goals per game. It will be difficult for them to keep up with the potent offense of the Avalanche.

The Kraken are coming into this game riding a 3-game losing streak, and welcoming Nathan MacKinnon and the Avalanche to town is not exactly what you want to see while on a losing streak. MacKinnon is up to 104 points on the season and is showing no signs of slowing down. The Avalanche should dominate this game. Give me them on the puck line.

Avalanche vs. Kraken best bet: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.