Parlays

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The High Point Panthers face the Winthrop Eagles for the Big South Championship on Sunday afternoon. These two teams have been the clear top teams in the conference all season, and they split their regular season meetings. Winthrop has had to grind out a couple of tough wins, first against Charleston Southern, and then against a pesky Presbyterian squad. High Point has had a less stressful quest, as they have now won 13 games in a row. The Panthers should be the better team, and although this number seems surprisingly high, this is the right play. Give me High Point -6.5.

The issue for Winthrop is that their best player, Logan Duncomb, is playing through a tough foot injury. He has gutted out a couple of games, limiting minutes where he can, but without their key big man fully healthy, the Eagles are in a tight spot in the title game (Duncomb had 28 and 23 in the 2 meetings with High Point this season). Both teams play fast, but High Point is a far better offense. They get out in transition a lot, and they force their way to the line often. The Eagles will have a tough time keeping the Panthers away from the rim without Duncomb, while I think the grind of the tournament week finally catches up with Winthrop and is too much. So with a tip of the cap to the High Point students I saw in the Johnson City Cheddar’s on Saturday night, I’m taking the Panthers to cover and punch their ticket to the Big Dance.

Winthrop vs High Point prediction: High Point Panthers -6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.5.

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Western Carolina enters the semifinals after securing a win over Mercer yesterday. The Catamounts dominated the glass in that matchup, outrebounding Mercer 53-29 — including 25 offensive rebounds — which led to plenty of second-chance opportunities for the Catamounts. East Tennessee State also advanced with a win over The Citadel, shooting an impressive 56.4% from the floor. However, their defense struggled, allowing the Bulldogs to shoot 50%, and they’ll need to tighten that up if they want to beat a tough Western Carolina team today. 

These teams have already met twice this season, with Western Carolina winning both matchups — the first by 4 points and the second by 2. In both games, the Catamounts controlled the boards and outshot East Tennessee State. Western Carolina may have had an up-and-down regular season, but they are entering the Southern Conference Tournament playing some of their best basketball, riding a 7-game winning streak. During that stretch, they are averaging 83 points per game while allowing just 68.3. East Tennessee State, on the other hand, has dropped 3 of its last 6 games and has yet to solve Western Carolina this season. These teams have played tight games throughout the year, but if the Catamounts continue to dominate the glass and capitalize on second-chance opportunities, they should be able to keep this game close. 

Western Carolina vs East Tennessee State prediction: Western Carolina Catamounts +3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The WCC Tournament keeps on rolling along on Sunday, and this matchup between Pacific and Santa Clara is arguably the most important contest of the quarterfinal round. After all, the Broncos are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble and after a Saturday in which not a single bubble team did anything to improve their stock, Santa Clara has a massive opportunity to make a statement on a national stage and take another step toward solidifying its tournament resume. The Broncos have not lost to any team in WCC play outside of Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, and this matchup shouldn’t be one that gives them much trouble. With that in mind, while Pacific is coming off a solid victory over Seattle and has generally played above expectations this season, I can only look toward backing Santa Clara in a situation where it should win by margin.

A common refrain you’ll hear during conference tournament time is “it’s hard to beat a team 3 times”. However, the historical data has shown that this line of thinking is incorrect more often than not. In this particular instance, we’ve seen Santa Clara dominate Pacific over the first 2 meetings — winning each game by at least 15 points — and that should continue on Sunday. The Broncos offense is among the best at the mid-major level, as Santa Clara ranks 23rd in adjusted efficiency (BartTorvik) while tallying 80 or more points in 8 of its last 10 games played. Herb Sendek’s group is extremely efficient around the rim and also does a great job of attacking the offensive glass (19th in offensive rebounding rate). On the other side of the ball, the Broncos defense is excellent at forcing turnovers, which happens to be a major issue for a Pacific offense that ranks 349th in turnover percentage. The Tigers also really struggle at getting to the free-throw line, so manufacturing points could be a little more difficult to come by for an offense that is 151st in adjusted efficiency on the season. I’ll lay the points with the considerably better side on Sunday.

Pacific vs Santa Clara prediction: Santa Clara -9 available at time of publishing. Playable to Santa Clara -10.

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The New York Knicks have won 4 of their last 5 games heading into a showdown against the Los Angeles Lakers inside Crypto.com Arena in L.A. on Sunday afternoon. New York is playing stellar basketball, with only a 3-point loss to defending NBA champion Oklahoma City during this 5-game stretch. I expect momentum to continue, so my Knicks vs Lakers pick is for the visitors to win and cover. New York’s current 5-game road trip could not have started any better, as it absolutely humiliated Denver 142-103 on Friday night. Karl-Anthony Towns extended his double-double streak to 5 games with 17 points and 13 rebounds, while OG Anunoby delivered 34 points. It’s also worth noting that the Knicks’ fine form has been showing for a long time now, as they are also 16-5 SU in their last 21 overall. This can be explained in part by the fact that they have never been healthier this season than they are right now. Miles McBride (out until the playoffs following core muscle surgery) is the only player on the roster with any kind of injury designation.

Los Angeles is mostly healthy, too, although Deandre Ayton is questionable for Sunday with a knee problem. LeBron James (elbow) is probable. LeBron, however, has not been playing particularly well. The 41-year-old has been held under his season-long points per game average (21.4 ppg) in 6 of 8 contests since the all-star break. Ayton has been pretty much useless in recent weeks, so the Lakers can’t feel good about their presence down low regardless of his status. The Lakers are just 6-6 in their last 12 games; their relative struggles are likely to continue against such a red-hot and confident opponent.

Knicks vs Lakers prediction: New York -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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For the Rockets, Sunday’s game is massive. Their form has been up and down lately, exchanging wins and losses in their last 5 outings. Despite failing to master consistency in this period, they have been able to keep hold of the third seed — mainly because the Nuggets have also struggled a bit in this period. Playing the Spurs will be a proper test. The Rockets’ only win against them this season came at home, so they are looking to even things out as far as the regular-season series goes.

We witnessed the comeback for the ages by the San Antonio Spurs in their last game, as they overcame a 25-point deficit and beat their former star Kawhi Leonard and his Clippers. That performance has the league on notice; San Antonio means business. Victor Wembanyama has been playing extremely well since the break. He delivered 27 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks in just 22 minutes against the Clippers. His matchup with Alperen Sengun down low could decide the outcome of Sunday’s game against the Rockets.

I find it hard to bet against the Spurs these days, no matter who the opponent is and no matter how big the spread is. For Sunday against the Rockets, the number is at 5 points — which is very reasonable considering that the Spurs’ 2 head-to-head wins have come by 11 and 12 points. Playing at home will also be a boost; in 29 games there, Wemby and company are a dominant 23-6 SU. I’ll back San Antonio.

Rockets vs Spurs prediction: San Antonio -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The hottest team in the league got cooled off a bit in its last game with Charlotte’s 128-120 home loss to Miami. The loss ended a historic streak of 6 wins in a row by double-digits, but the Hornets won’t be discouraged after that result as they head into Phoenix for a date with the shorthanded Suns. Charlotte’s turnaround this season has been very impressive — so much that it now goes into games as a favorite on a regular basis — even against teams that have better records. Over the years, the Hornets have not had the best of times in head-to-head meetings with Phoenix — winning only once in 9 such games.

Phoenix snagged a narrow 2-point win over the Pelicans earlier this week despite that game being the second night of a back-to-back. That is very encouraging for a team that has battled a lot of injuries lately — and with Dillon Brooks still being out due to a hand isse. Devin Booker is back and leading the charge offensively, so a lot will depend on his performance in Sunday’s game. It’s not often you get the Suns as home underdogs. For a long time they were the league’s most reliable ATS team this season, but just recently the Hornets actually overtook them. Phoenix is a far better home team than the one that goes out on the road — it is 21-13 SU in 34 games at the Mortgage Matchup Center.

The way the Hornets have been playing lately, it’s going to be hard to overlook them here for a lot of people. However, taking into account that some of those big wins during the streak came against tanking teams and the fact that the Suns have the superior head-to-head record, I’m going to lean Phoenix — but just barely.

Hornets vs Suns prediction: Phoenix +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Boston Bruins will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins Sunday, as the Bruins come into this one ranking 8^th in the Eastern Conference. The issue for the Bruins is that they play very well at home and struggle in away games. On the season, they rank 15^th in away form with only 26 points through 29 games. Additionally, the Bruins have lost 7 of their last 8 away games, with 4 of those coming by more than 1 goal. The Bruins also struggle with clean play, as they currently lead the NHL with the most penalty opportunities against them. With so many chances, the opposing teams have scored 51 power play goals against the Bruins. As if the penalty kill struggles aren’t enough, the Bruins give up 30 shots per game, which ranks 5^th in the NHL. Overall, the Bruins defense can be a concern.

For the Penguins, they are riding a 3-game losing streak, but still remain in 7^th in the Eastern Conference. On the season, they average 3.34 goals while only allowing 2.82 goals per game. The Penguins also score on 25.3% of their power plays, which could be huge against a sloppy Bruins squad. Finally, these teams have faced off twice this year, and the Bruins came away victorious both times. The interesting thing is that the Bruins were outshot in both of those games. Given all this information, I believe the Penguins offense will come alive after a difficult defeat in penalties last night. I am taking the Penguins on the money line.

Bruins vs. Penguins prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins ML (-125) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Chicago Blackhawks are travelling to Dallas to face the Stars for the third and final time this season. Unfortunately, the Blackhawks’ season has been disappointing, but they managed to win both previous matchups against their division rivals. They hope to complete the season sweep, but this task seems daunting, especially after the trade deadline, during which multiple players were moved. Additionally, the team may have to play without Spencer Knight again due to illness. The odds are stacked against them, but can they pull off another upset?

On the other hand, the Stars recently had their winning streak snapped by the Colorado Avalanche, who came back to win in a shootout. Dallas is missing key players like Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz, but they cannot use this as an excuse. The team boasts a deep offensive lineup and an above-average defensive group. While goaltending has been an issue throughout the season, Casey DeSmith has performed well, with a record of 13-4-5, a 2.25 GAA, and a .914 SV%. There is a good chance he will start this game, which would provide a significant boost for the entire team. Overall, Dallas is the stronger team and should be able to exploit the Blackhawks’ below-average defence, allowing them to score multiple goals and potentially cover the puck line.

Blackhawks vs Stars Prediction: Dallas Stars -1.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The St. Louis Blues are concluding their 4-game road trip with a stop in Anaheim to face the Ducks. They currently hold a 3-0 record on this trip and are eager to maintain their momentum. The Blues average just 2.60 goals per game on 25 shots, but their goaltending has been impressive, allowing only 5 goals across these 3 games. Although they have performed better than expected recently, their success could come to an abrupt end tonight.

The Ducks are at the top of the Pacific Division, thanks to their strong recent performances. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and scored 5 or more goals in 3 those contests. This team knows how to find the back of the net, but their defence still needs improvement. To address this, they acquired John Carlson from the Washington Capitals, who is expected to play tonight. While his defensive game isn’t what it once was, he is still a valuable upgrade.

We could see a back-and-forth game that would favor the Ducks. While the game could tighten up, Anaheim is the stronger team overall, and we trust their ability to play quality hockey at home.

Blues vs Ducks Prediction: Anaheim Ducks 3-Way ML (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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