College Basketball Parlays

As part of the ACC-SEC Showdown, the Florida Gators will hit the road for their first true road game to play the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor in a matchup that many thought we were destined to see in the national title game just 8 months ago. Florida carries a 5-2 SU record coming into this contest after splitting its MTE games against TCU and Providence, beating the latter in its most recent outing 90-78 despite not having Alex Condon. Meanwhile, Duke boasts a perfect 8-0 record, and though the Blue Devils didn’t play in an MTE during Feast Week, they have beaten Texas, Kansas, and Arkansas on neutral courts – in addition to a splattering of the Black Knights on the road at Army.

With Condon projected to be back in the lineup on Tuesday, Florida will counter Duke with the tallest and deepest front court the Blue Devils will have seen to this point. However, Florida’s guard play has been nothing like it was last year, as Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland have been a clear step down from what the Gators had leading the offense during their title run. Moreover, turnovers have plagued this Gators squad, which is not a good thing when heading into Cameron Indoor having yet to play in a truly hostile environment. 

With an effective field goal percentage outside the top 200 and an ugly 27.7% three-point percentage on top of the turnover woes, I struggle to find reasons to back Florida on the road in this spot. Not to mention, the Gators are 275th in opposing free throw rate, and Duke is definitely not a team you want to give free points to at the charity stripe. 

Through 8 games, Duke has the 5th-most efficient offense when adjusted for opponent per KenPom, knocking down more than 65% of its 2-point shots. On the other side of the floor, the Blue Devils are holding opponents to the lowest opposing effective field goal percentage in the country, and they have been particularly good at defending near-proximity shots and limiting second-chance opportunities – both areas in which the Gators rely heavily for points. I see a comfortable Duke win and cover here, propelled by reliable perimeter shooting and even better defense. 

Florida vs Duke prediction: Duke Blue Devils -7.5 (-120) available at FanDuel at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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The Purdue Boilermakers and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will begin conference play on Tuesday in Piscataway with Purdue heavily favored despite being on the road. The Boilers come into this game with a perfect 7-0 record, including a 7-point win at Alabama and an eye-popping 30-point win over Texas Texas at the Baha Mar Championship the week before Feast Week proper. Meanwhile, Rutgers was a participant in the Players Era and failed to impress. The Knights were uncompetitive against Tenenssee and lost to Notre Dame before beating a 3-win UNLV team that is outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency and outside the top 300 in minutes continuity.

Purdue is a well-oiled machine offensively, and I’m not sure Rutgers has enough firepower to keep up, especially considering the Knights scored just 54 points in a home loss to Central Connecticut before hanging just 60 on Tennessee and 63 on Notre Dame out in Las Vegas. The Boilermakers have yet to score fewer than 80 points this season, which makes sense given they are KenPom’s most efficient offense in the country – one that connects on more than 42% of its perimeter shots. Purdue is also elite on the offensive glass, which is a big area of weakness for Rutgers. In fact, the Scarlet Knights are outside the top 200 in opposing offensive rebounding rate (KenPom) and second-chance conversion percentage, as well as 300th in second-chance points allowed (Haslametrics).

I don’t see Rutgers being refined enough defensively to limit Purdue’s offense enough to cover, much less win the game. The Boilermakers have the edge everywhere on the floor offensively, and should be able to supplement their offensive efficiency with plenty of second-chance opportunities against what has proven to be an overmatched Rutgers team against power conference opponents. 

Purdue vs Rutgers prediction: Purdue Boilermakers -15 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better. 

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The UConn Huskies will travel to Lawrence on Tuesday night for a ranked vs ranked non-conference game against the Kansas Jayhawks. Both teams are coming off big wins as UConn just beat Illinois on Friday in Madison Square Garden and Kansas went 3-0 in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas. It should be a high-level non-conference game in Allen Fieldhouse, and I expect Kansas to use their home crowd to their advantage to cover this spread.

The spread is currently Kansas +2.5 and that is my best bet for this matchup. The Jayhawks have been a home underdog just three times since 2003 and covered the spread in two out of the three. They will likely be without five-star recruit and projected top three pick in the 2026 NBA Draft Darryn Peterson, but I still think they can use their elite defense to get it done. Kansas is giving up just 51.3 points per game this season on their home floor and that could disrupt UConn’s offense enough to cover. According to KenPom, Kansas’ defense is ranked #9 in adjusted efficiency and #6 in three-point percentage while UConn’s offense is ranked just #123 in three-point percentage and could struggle to shoot the ball well on the road. Take the home underdog to cover the spread here.

*Kansas +2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at +2*