College Basketball Parlays

The Toledo Rockets and the Michigan State Spartans will meet at the Breslin Center in East Lansing on Tuesday in a MAC vs. Big Ten non-conference showdown. The Rockets are 5-5 with losses in 3 of their last 4, while the Spartans are 9-1 with their lone loss coming at home against Duke on December 6th. This will be the third straight road game for Toledo, as well as its 5th game away from home in its last 6 outings. Not to mention, this will be a dramatic step up in class for Toledo, as the Rockets have yet to play a power-conference opponent or any team ranked inside KenPom’s top 75. 

Toledo relies heavily on scoring in the paint, which will likely be hard to come by against a team like Michigan State. Sparty has a distinct size advantage in this matchup with Jaxson Kohler and Carson Cooper roaming the paint and awaiting shot-blocking opportunities. The Spartans use that size advantage to dominate the glass and defend at a high level, as they rank 4th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency and 23rd in opposing effective field goal percentage. 

On the other end of the floor, it’s hard to see how Toledo will get stops. The Rockets have been bad defensively, sitting 287th in adjusted efficiency and 342nd in opposing effective field goal percentage. Due to a lack of size, they have been abysmal defending around the rim, which is a nightmare scenario against this MSU front court. Defending Jeremy Fears Jr. also figures to be a nightmare for a Toledo back court that lacks a defensive stalwart. Following their loss to Duke and near-loss at Penn State, look for Tom Izzo and the Spartans to use this as a get-right game against an inferior opponent that lacks reliability on both ends. 

Toledo vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State Spartans -23 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -24. 

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As we head toward conference play, the DePaul Blue Demons face the St. John’s Red Storm in a Big East matchup. St. John’s is off to a slower start than they had hoped, logging a 6-3 record thus far. Their losses have come to Iowa State, Alabama, and Auburn, so no hard there, but this team certainly has higher expectations. DePaul, on the other hand, has to be pleased with where they are at 8-3. They haven’t yet seen anyone on the level of the Johnnies, but this Blue Demons team is much improved over recent years. I don’t know if they can keep pace on the road though, and this spread number has me concerned because I could see it going either way. But I do like this game to be high scoring, so let’s take the game total over 153 points.

DePaul, for as bad as they were last season, has some program continuity working in its favor. They retained their leading scorer, and 3 of their top 4 scorers in fact, and they should at least be competent offensively. They shoot a ton of 3s, and they rebound well on the defensive end, so they will be surprisingly competitive in conference play. St. John’s, of course, is known for two things: superior defense, and a go-fast offense that attacks the rim. They have been over 90 points in 6 of their 9 games, and this is the kind of matchup that could easily be played at that kind of pace. We will need DePaul to pull its weight, but I think this is a team that can score this season, and they might surprise us. Let’s take the over.

DePaul vs St. John’s Prediction: Over 153 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 154.5.

No. 20 Tennessee has had time to reflect on its recent struggles as it prepares to host No. 11 Louisville, looking to snap a three-game losing streak. The Volunteers last played on December 6, falling to Illinois 75-62, while shooting just 36.9% from the floor. The game before that, the Volunteers lost to Syracuse, shooting just 41.4%. Louisville enters this matchup riding a two-game winning streak and will look to make it three straight as they head to Knoxville for a Tuesday night showdown. 

Louisville is 2-1 against top-25 teams this season, while Tennessee is 1-1 against ranked opponents. The Cardinals are a dangerous team, playing at a fast pace with one of the most explosive offenses in college basketball, averaging 94.3 points per game. Defensively, Louisville has also been solid, holding opponents to 68.1 points per game. Tennessee, on the other hand, likes to play at a much slower pace. The Volunteers are averaging 80.9 points per game and rely on a strong, physical defense that could frustrate Louisville at times in this matchup. However, the edge goes to the Cardinals’ backcourt. Louisville’s experience and talent guards –  Mikel Brown Jr., Ryan Conwell, and Isaac McKneely give them a major advantage in tempo and shot-making. The Volunteers don’t have as much depth on their roster, and for that reason, I’m leaning towards Louisville to pick up the victory as a favorite on Tuesday night. 

Louisville vs Tennessee prediction: Louisville -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.