College Basketball Parlays

After a long and eventful regular season and the beautiful chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. One of the first games on Friday’s slate features a team that profiles as a March sleeper in the Akron Zips, and there is an opportunity for the champions of the MAC to make a splash against a Big 12 opponent.

Akron has been in this spot before, as this is the third straight year that John Groce’s side has made the Big Dance, and they should be able to learn from their previous experiences in this setting. Led by Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott in the backcourt, the Zips have veteran leaders all over the floor and an offense that has the capability to do major damage both from the perimeter and in the paint. Akron boasts one of the most efficient mid-major offenses inside of 15 feet, and the Zips can also knock down outside shots at nearly a 40% clip. Furthermore, Akron should be able to create second-chance opportunities with its prowess on the glass, while Texas Tech has taken a massive hit in the rebounding department over the last month (288th in defensive rebounding rate). On the other side, it’s also worth mentioning that while Texas Tech has played admirably without the services of JT Toppin (out for the season with a torn ACL), the Red Raiders have now become incredibly reliant on their backcourt play and outside shooters. To their credit, Grant McCasland’s team has shot the lights out from beyond the arc in recent weeks, but that just signals to me that regression is certainly coming due for a team that is top 10 in both 3-point rate and 3-point percentage over the last month. If Texas Tech has a less-than-stellar day from deep, that creates a real opportunity for Akron to keep things very close and potentially spring the upset. 

Akron vs Texas Tech prediction: Akron +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks managed to go 31-0 during the regular season, but they lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament against UMass. That actually put their NCAA Tournament chances in danger, as Miami had no Quad 1 games on its resume, while going just 3-0 in Q2 games. However, the Redhawks snuck into the Field of 68 with a First Four game in Dayton against SMU. Just an hour from campus, the Redhawks did what they do best, shoot threes, while playing up-tempo basketball, and Miami secured its first Q1 win with an 89-79 victory over the Mustangs. It was the first NCAA Tournament win for Miami since 1999, when it made the Sweet 16.

The Volunteers are a strong rebounding team, and they have a very good defense, too. But, Miami figures to put them to the test from the perimeter. In addition, the Redhawks are a top-tier rebounding team, too, ranking eighth in the nation with a plus-15.4 rebounding differential. While this is another difficult test for Miami, it can also tap into the disrespect angle, as a team which has lost just a single game on the season is an 11-seed, and it is a double-digit underdog. Take Miami catching the double-digit points, and hope that it can maintain its decent perimeter shooting against a tough SEC opponent which went to the Elite Eight last season.

Miami (OH) vs Tennessee prediction: Miami (Ohio) +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

After a long and eventful regular season and the chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. For my money, Friday’s slate has some of the most intriguing matchups of the Round of 64, and that includes a game between Northern Iowa and St. John’s from San Diego, California. The Panthers are the champions of the Missouri Valley — a conference that typically acquits itself very well in March — while St. John’s emerged as the champions of a very weak Big East conference. Both teams have played well entering this week, but which side will survive and advance to the weekend?

Northern Iowa has been in this spot before, and this program is no stranger to springing upsets in March. This year’s version of the Panthers is a veteran bunch that is led by its defense, which is ranked 24th nationally in adjusted efficiency per KenPom. While they did have some growing pains earlier in the season, Ben Jacobson’s group has won 10 of its last 13 games dating back to January 31. Not only are the Panthers playing at a top 40 level nationally over the last 6 weeks, but they’ve been able to do that while opponents are still making a higher than average number of threes against them. With that in mind, a bit of positive regression is still in order for what has been an elite perimeter defense this season (3rd in 3-point percentage allowed per BartTorvik). On offense, Northern Iowa is extremely comfortable playing at a deliberate pace, as the Panthers are ranked 364th in adjusted tempo and consistently look to grind out quality shots late in the clock. That bodes well for an underdog in a tournament setting, as teams that shorten the game and put a massive emphasis on each possession generally keep their games close against higher-seeded opponents. A year ago, a Drake team that played at a slow pace was able to knock off Missouri, so there’s certainly precedent for a Missouri Valley team to spring an upset over a power conference opponent by following a similar script.

As for the higher seed, St. John’s has been playing some of its best basketball over the last few weeks, but it’s worth mentioning that most of those performances have come against pretty poor competition in what was a lousy Big East this season. Furthermore, the Red Storm have struggled mightily on offense all season long, with Rick Pitino’s team sitting at 191st in effective field goal percentage, 187th in 2-point percentage and a whopping 214th in 3-point percentage (BartTorvik). That doesn’t bode well against an excellent Panthers defense that is fundamentally sound and won’t commit fouls to bail St. John’s out of bad possessions. If the Red Storm are not able to get out in transition and generate easy buckets, it could be a long day for this extremely inconsistent offense. All things considered, this has all the makings of a defensive struggle, so I’ll grab the points with Northern Iowa now that the Panthers are catching double digits.

Northern Iowa vs St. John’s prediction: Northern Iowa +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9