UFC on ESPN 27: Cory Sandhagen vs. TJ Dillashaw Predictions

UFC on ESPN 27: Cory Sandhagen vs. TJ Dillashaw
Sat 7/24 9:30 ET
UFC on ESPN 27: Cory Sandhagen vs. TJ Dillashaw
UFC APEX

Pickswise's Expert Predictions & Analysis

Fight Prop Prediction
Fight to go the Distance - No
Odds
Bonus

Fight Prop Prediction

The Main Event at UFC on ESPN 27 will see Cory Sandhagen take on TJ Dillashaw. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Sandhagen comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-2. He is 7-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Frankie Edgar by TKO/KO back in February of this year. This fight took all of 28 seconds before a flying knee sent Edgar to the mat and the fight was stopped. Sandhagen is averaging 6.85 significant strikes per minute and is landing them 48 percent of the time. He is absorbing 3.89 strikes and has a striking defense of 59 percent. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.07 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50 percent, but his takedown defense is 30 percent.

Dillashaw comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-4. He is 12-4 in the UFC, most recently losing to Henry Cejudo by TKO/KO back in January of 2019. Because of the long layoff, this very well could be a dangerous spot for Dillashaw. He is averaging 5.37 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41 percent. He is absorbing 3.03 strikes and has a striking defense of 65 percent. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.68 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Dillashaw has a takedown accuracy of 37 percent, but a takedown defense of 86 percent.

In what is expected to be a prolific fight, it is very hard to pick a winner. Sandhagen is the big favorite for a reason, and even though Dillashaw has not fought in the UFC in over two years, he is still very dangerous. Six of Sandhagen’s eight UFC fights have ended inside the distance and 10 of Dillashaw’s 16 UFC fights have done the same. I expect a fast-paced fight here, seeing that a win could help propel either of these guys closer to a title shot. For that reason, I am going to back this fight to end inside the distance and will look to use this prop in a parlay.

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