NBA Picks

Brooklyn continues to be mis-priced simply because its record is terrible. With only 1 win on the year, the market refuses to assign the Nets any real credibility, and because of that, spreads involving them continue to balloon into absurd territory. Tonight is another example, with Orlando laying a number far larger than its offensive profile justifies. The Magic win with defense. They grind teams down, limit possessions, and force tough shots. That approach works, but it rarely produces blowouts. Orlando’s offense remains streaky, inconsistent, and reliant on physicality rather than perimeter firepower. This is a team that simply isn’t built to run away from opponents unless everything goes perfectly.

Brooklyn, meanwhile, plays harder than its record implies, and the marketplace still hasn’t adjusted. The Nets have been catching huge numbers all year, and until oddsmakers correct, those prices will continue to offer automatic value. Orlando may still win and they may cover, too – but their style isn’t conducive to that. This is an inflated number and a clear buy-in spot on the undervalued dog. In a NBA Cup game where stranger things have happened, we have to like that position.

Nets vs Magic prediction: Brooklyn Nets +14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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The setup for this one is straightforward, as this matchup profiles as a scoring environment, not a defensive grind. Both New York and Miami enter tonight boasting top-10 offenses, and each has leaned heavily into pace and shot creation early in the season. Miami leads the entire NBA at nearly 125 points per game, an explosive number that signals a team prioritizing tempo, spacing, and early-clock shot attempts. New York isn’t far behind, averaging 121 points per contest, and the Knicks have shown a clear willingness to engage in high-octane exchanges rather than rely solely on half-court execution.

The last time these two teams met, the game finished 115–107 in favor of Miami as a 3-point underdog back in October. That score might seem modest compared to tonight’s total, but context matters: that meeting demanded a defensive tone from Miami to secure the win, and the Knicks played a slower, more methodical brand of basketball then. This is a different moment, different rhythm, and a different version of both clubs. The Knicks will be at home in Madison Square Garden, where they’ve been pushing pace noticeably harder. Their strategy is clear: increase tempo, create more possessions, and force opponents to match them shot-for-shot. That style will naturally expose them defensively, particularly in transition, and the Heat — with the league’s top-ranking offense — are built to capitalize on precisely those breakdowns. When two teams that can score this efficiently meet, totals north of 235 become not only reachable but logical.

Heat vs Knicks prediction: Over 236.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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The Philadelphia 76ers and Detroit Pistons meet in a matchup that sets up well for a slower, lower-scoring game than the market projects. Philadelphia enters averaging 120.5 points per game, but Detroit’s defense has been stronger than expected — allowing just 112.8 points per contest while keeping opponents from consistently pushing pace. Detroit’s offense has been efficient at 118.5 points per game, yet it relies more on structured half-court sets than transition bursts, which naturally keeps totals in check. Recent meetings between these 2 teams also tend to fall in the low 220s, suggesting that a total of 232 bakes in more scoring than their usual rhythm supports.

While both teams possess capable scorers, the stylistic matchup leans toward stretches of defensive control. Philadelphia’s games have hit the over less than half the time recently, and Detroit’s physicality inside often forces opponents into tougher mid-range looks rather than clean perimeter attempts. As the game progresses, expect more half-court execution, tighter defensive rotations and fewer easy transition opportunities.

76ers vs Pistons prediction: Under 232 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Charlotte Hornets and Milwaukee Bucks meet in a matchup that sets up cleanly for a high scoring contest. Charlotte averages roughly 117–118 points per game while allowing nearly the same on the defensive end, a recipe that consistently drives games into shootout territory. Their offense leans on pace – a trait that has defined the Hornets for years. With emerging scorers like Kon Knueppel and Ryan Kalkbrenner giving the lineup more efficiency and athleticism, Charlotte pushes tempo and forces opponents into transition heavy sequences. Milwaukee, meanwhile, continues to hover around 118 points per game on both ends, with defensive slippage being a season long storyline. Even on nights when Giannis Antetokounmpo’s status is uncertain, the Bucks’ offensive structure—floor spacing, quick triggers, and guard scoring depth—keeps them dangerous.

Both teams trend toward offense first identities and neither has shown the discipline or personnel to control pace. Milwaukee’s perimeter defense has been particularly vulnerable, while Charlotte’s young roster routinely gives up clean looks in the half court. That combination leads to elevated possessions and long stretches of free flowing basketball. Recent matchups and early season numbers for both clubs point firmly toward inflated scoring environments. With neither team likely to impose defensive resistance or slow the game down, this projects as a fast paced showdown.

Hornets vs Bucks Prediction: Over 238.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 239.5.

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The 5-game road trip has been up and down for the Lakers, with them exchanging wins and losses in the 3 games thus far. The only win came in Charlotte, while in the 2 losses to OKC and Atlanta, they weren’t all that competitive. LA fans are hoping for a bounce back result in New Orleans on Friday against a Pelicans team that’s not going anywhere at this time. The Lakers are double-digit favorites, so they’ll need to win big in order to cover here. They’re 9-1 SU in 10 meetings and have covered in 5 of 6 games against this team.

Zion Williamson, Jordan Poole and Dejounte Murray are all out injured, so the Pels will have to dig deep into their rotation to find enough points to stay competitive on most nights. They’ve kept 2 of their last 3 defeats relatively close, putting up 117 and 119 points on the Blazers and Spurs. Playing at home might give them a bit of a confidence lift here, especially if the Lakers come into this one with a bit of complacency. In 4 outings at Smoothie King Center the Pels have covered twice and only against the Boston Celtics did they lose by more than 8 points.

I really thought the Lakers had a chance against the Thunder the other night, but boy was I wrong. After such a poor showing, I am not sure I trust them to blow out the Pelicans. Luka is likely going to push the tempo here – that’s just how he likes to play – and the Lakers offense will flourish. The Pelicans have nothing to lose, so look for them to run with the Lakers. Hopefully, they can put up some points on the board. Back the over.

Lakers vs Pelicans Predictions: Over 229 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Portland Trail Blazers and the Houston Rockets will face each other Friday night in another round of the NBA Cup. The Trail Blazers have a record of 6-5 overall and are 1-0 in the West Group C standings. They are coming off a 125-117 win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday. Shaedon Sharpe led the Blazers in scoring with a season-high 35 points, and the they marched their way to victory behind 57% shooting from the field. The Rockets have a record of 7-3 on the season but an 0-1 record in the NBA Cup standings. They are beginning to click, winning 7 of their last 8 games. They are coming off a 135-112 win over the Washington Wizards on Wednesday. Kevin Durant led the team in scoring with 23 points, and the Rockets as a team shot 48% from 3 in the win.

Pace will be a big statistic to look at for this game. The Trail Blazers are one of the fastest teams in the NBA, ranking second in the NBA in pace. The Rockets are one of the slowest, ranking 27th. Whichever team can control the pace of play should have a big advantage toward the outcome of this game. Usually the more experienced team can manipulate the game to be at the speed they like, but I’m looking at turnover rate as a stat that could favor the Trail Blazers. The Blazers are the top-ranked team in the NBA at creating turnovers, with a forced turnover percentage of around 20%. The Rockets’ offense has been good this season, but turnovers have been their Achilles’ heal. They rank 27th in the NBA in turnover percentage at 16.9%. If the Trail Blazers can force turnovers, they should be able to keep this game at a pace that they like.

Trail Blazers vs Rockets prediction: Portland +7.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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At 3-9 SU plus ranking 25th and 27th in offense and defense, it’s no surprise that the Sacramento Kings are outside the play-in mix in the loaded West. Doug Christie just hasn’t been able to fit together the pieces he has, right now this team looks like a bunch of individuals just thrown together without a system in place. Friday’s NBA Cup group play sees them take on the T’Wolves, a team that just beat them 144-117 last Tuesday.

Minnesota has been on the rise ever since the return of Ant Man. Over the past week, the T-Wolves put 120 past the Jazz, 144 past the Kings and 137 on the Jazz again. They’re looking to take advantage of a somewhat softer schedule to get back into the mix in the Western Conference, so winning games like this one on Friday is a must. There are no significant injuries to report on Minnesota’s end here, which has to feel good for a team that’s had its issues with players missing games last season.

Surely there’s no other outcome than a high scoring game here, right? These two just combined to score 261 points earlier this week, and they’re 8-3 and 8-4 on the O/U so far this season. The over has cashed for Minnesota in 7 of 8 home games, plus in 5 of 6 meetings between these two teams. An average of 239.1 points per game was scored in the last 10 meetings, I’m feeling very confident in backing the over even at this high number.

Kings vs Timberwolves prediction: Over 239.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Los Angeles Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks have both gotten off to slow starts this season. They will meet Friday night in an NBA Cup group play matchup as they try to get their season back on track. The Clippers have an overall record of 3-8 but an NBA Cup record of 1-0. They have lost their last 6 games and will have to try to win on the road after going winless on their last 3-game home-stand. Their last loss was on Wednesday against the Denver Nuggets. The Clippers fell 130-116 despite shooting 48% from the field. The Clippers could not slow down Nikola Jokic, who finished the game with 55 points. The Mavericks have a record of 3-9 this season and are 0-1 in NBA Cup play. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games, including a 123-114 loss on Wednesday to the Phoenix Suns. The Mavericks shot 50% from the field but committed 21 turnovers in the loss.  

Both teams have some injury concerns heading into Friday’s matchup. The Clippers will go another game without Kawhi Leonard, and the Mavericks may be without Anthony Davis. Davis is still recovering from a calf injury and is listed as questionable for tonight. Both teams’ slow starts have caused reasonable concern as this season has gotten underway. For the Clippers, I still am confident they will find a way to turn things around — but I am skeptical if the Mavericks will be able to dig themselves out of this hole any time soon. The most concerning statistic for Dallas is its offensive efficiency. The Mavs rank last in the NBA in points per game and second to last in offensive rating, scoring only 105.7 points per 100 possessions. If Davis is unable to go tonight, that leaves the 18-year-old Cooper Flagg as the focal point of this offense. Flagg has averaged 15 points per game this season, but has struggled to find his footing as he begins his NBA career. Flagg’s point differential when on the floor is at -10 for the season. When Davis has not played, Flagg’s point differential combined is at -40 in his last five games. The Mavericks will still have to endure this learning curve, and I expect the Clippers experience to get them back on track sooner rather than later. 

Clippers vs Mavericks prediction: Los Angeles -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Golden State beat San Antonio 2 nights ago at this same price. That tells you the market didn’t buy the result, and there’s good reason for it. The Warriors needed a massive outlier performance from Stephen Curry, who erupted for 46 points – nearly doubling his usual offensive production. Without that explosion, San Antonio likely wins the game.

The Spurs were the steadier team for long stretches, and the rematch dynamic favors the home side that played the more complete game. Oddsmakers are effectively challenging bettors: “If you want the Warriors again, we dare you.” The fact the line stayed exactly where it was two nights ago says San Antonio is the more trusted side here. Golden State still lacks consistency outside of Curry, and betting on another near-career performance isn’t a sustainable angle. Unless he goes supernova, San Antonio can and should win and cover this re-match.

Warriors vs Spurs prediction: San Antonio Spurs -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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