Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton US Open Men's Singles Final Predictions, Picks & Best Bets
Sunday could be the day when an American man wins a Grand Slam singles title for the first time since Andy Roddick at the 2003 U.S. Open. Ben Shelton is on the doorstep of history at the U.S. Open, just as Taylor Fritz was in 2024. However, Fritz had Jannik Sinner standing in his way, and the American was predictably uncompetitive in that final.
It’s a much different story this time around for Shelton. Alexander Zverev is no slouch of an opponent (the German is favored to win the match after all), but he isn’t Sinner. He isn’t Carlos Alcaraz. He isn’t Novak Djokovic. He isn’t Rafael Nadal. And he isn’t Roger Federer. This is the host nation’s best chance in more than a decade to finally get back over the hump.
Following a perfect 3-0 sweep on the women’s final between Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, let’s keep the momentum rolling! Here are the best bets to be made on Day 15 in New York City.
US Open Best Bet: Ben Shelton Over 20.5 games won vs Alexander Zverev (-130)
Shelton has been the better player at this U.S. Open and throughout the hard-court summer. The world #9 won the Montreal title, and his current run at Flushing Meadows includes defeats of seven-time major champion Alcaraz and Cincinnati runner-up Frances Tiafoe. Zverev, by contrast, won a total of two matches across both Montreal and Cincinnati, and he has not defeated anyone ranked better than #22 so far at the USO. Shelton has a great chance to pull off a minor upset. That being said, it probably won't be easy. Anything less than a competitive four-set match would be surprising, and this one very well could go five. Zverev has the head-to-head edge (5-0, although this is their first encounter of the season) and obviously a huge advantage in experience (this is his sixth major final and second at the U.S. Open). Shelton will almost certainly have a tough time putting the German away.
US Open Best Bet: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton Over 28.5 aces (-125)
Zverev is hitting 0.78 aces per service game during this event; Shelton comes in at 0.6 in that department. If both men serve 21 games on Sunday (the game total is 42.5, so that is a conservative estimate), those averages would give Zverev 16 aces and Shelton 13. Of course, there is a good chance that this match might last even longer, and it will likely produce at least one tiebreaker. It should also be noted that neither finalist does a great job of getting his racket on opponents’ serves. Over the past 52 weeks, Zverev is getting aced on 8.0 percent of his return points; Shelton is even worse at 8.3 percent. In two previous outdoor hard-court meetings, they combined for 41 aces in 50 games. That would equate to 33 if they played 40 games.
US Open Best Bet: Ben Shelton to win the third set (+110)
As the favorite, the pressure will be on Zverev if it's one set apiece going into the third. The #1 seed as never been particularly skilled at closing out his biggest matches in convincing fashion, so he may struggle to get across the finish line if he leads two sets to love. If he trails by two sets, well, it will be clear that Shelton is rolling and would have a good shot at simply overwhelming Zverev from start to finish on the way to his first major title. The 23-year-old is a perfect 6-0 in third sets during this tournament. Zverev lost the third set of his opening match against Sonego and needed tiebreakers to wi third sets against Quentin Halys, Luciano Darderi and Karen Khachanov.
