US Open Women's Singles Semifinal Predictions & Best Bets: Elena Rybakina vs Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula
It’s women’s semifinals day at the U.S. Open on Thursday, and what a lineup we have on our hands. One player from the host nation is part of each matchup, while the other two competitors are either the current #1 player in the world or the player that will become #1 in the world on Monday regardless of what happens the rest of this week. It will be Elena Rybakina vs Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula. Get your popcorn ready! Let's break down my US Open best bets for the women's semifinals on Day 12 in New York City.
US Open Best Bet: Coco Gauff ML over Elena Rybakina (-118)
To say that Gauff is flying high right now would be a serious understatement. The world #4 has reached at least the semis of four of the last five 1000-point tournaments, including a title just a few weeks ago in Cincinnati. Gauff is now into the last four of the U.S. Open for thre second time, ultimately bidding for her second trophy (previously triumphed at Flushing Meadows in 2023). The 22-year-old American is the best player on tour at the moment – regardless of what the rankings say.
For reference, what the rankings say is that Rybakina will become #1 for the first time in her career next week, which she clinched by beating Qinwen Zheng in a three-set quarterfinal. Although Rybakina is not exactly an emotional person, it would only be natural for any player to have a natural letdown following such a big moment. Give me defense over offense in this matchup.
US Open Best Bet: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Over 10.5 total aces (+105)
Sabalenka has fired 32 aces through five rounds. That's almost seven per match and 0.63 per service game. Pegula has struck 25 aces through five rounds, good for an average of five per match and 0.48 per game. Obviously, a long match would give each player more of an opportunity to hit aces, and a long match is what we almost always get between these two women. Their last four head-to-head encounters have all gone three sets, and their last seven meetings have all lasted 20 games or more – including five with at least 24 games.
It should also be noted that neither player does a good job of getting a racket on serves when she is returning. Sabalenka is getting aced on 6.5 percent of her return points over the past 52 weeks. That's fourth-worst among players in the top 50 of the WTA rankings. Pegula comes in at 5.1 percent in that department (eighth-worst in the top 50).
