Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina US Open Women's Singles Final Predictions, Picks & Best Bets
It all comes down to this: #1 vs #2 for the U.S. Open women’s singles title. In a sense, it’s really #1 vs #1. Aryna Sabalenka is currently the top player in the world, but Elena Rybakina will take over that spot for the first time in her career next week regardless of Saturday’s outcome. Here are the US Open best bets to be made for the women's singles final in New York City.
US Open Women's Best Bet: Elena Rybakina +1.5 games over Aryna Sabalenka (-120)
Sabalenka has won two of their three 2026 meetings, but Rybakina triumphed 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 in the Australian Open final. After losing their first four encounters, Rybakina is 7-6 against Sabalenka in the last 13. The second seed clinched the #1 ranking by reaching the semifinals, but she was not about to slow down at that point. Rybakina played two outstanding sets to take down Coco Gauff 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 on Thursday night and end the American's 10-match winning streak.
It is true that Sabalenka played at an awesome level against Jessica Pegula in the semis, but this is a completely different matchup. The Belarusian won’t be able to tee off on second serves and too many short rally balls in the middle of the court. Rybakina brings the same firepower to the table as Sabalenka in this matchup of huge hitters — just like Linda Noskova did on Tuesday during a 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(10-7) thriller.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Best Bet: Over 22.5 games (-116)
Close, hard-fought and, more importantly, long matches are the norm between these two rivals. Ten of their 17 encounters have gone three sets, including two of three so far this year. Another meeting (Indian Wells in 2023) lasted 23 games -- a 7-6(11), 6-4 decision in Rybakina's favor. Each of the Kazakh’s last two US Open matches were three-setters and Sabalenka was pushed to a third-set tiebreaker by Noskova in the quarterfinals.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Prediction: Over 14.5 aces (-115)
Another long match would help send this match over the ace total. Obviously the longer it goes, the more opportunities these two finalists have to hit aces. Both Sabalenka and Rybakina are averaging at least 0.64 aces per game during this US Open. In their most recent head-to-head showdown (Miami six months ago), there were a total of 11 aces, even though it was a quick 6-4, 6-3 scoreline. Their last three-setter (Indian Wells a couple of weeks earlier) resulted in 22 aces.
It’s also worth noting that neither player does a great job of getting a racket on opponents’ serves. Over the past 52 weeks, Sabalenka is getting aced on 6.5 percent of her return points -- the fourth-worst mark among women ranked in the top 50. Rybakina is getting aced on 4.2 percent of her return points.
