US Open Men's Singles Semifinal Predictions & Best Bets: Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov
It’s men’s semifinals day at the US Open on Friday, and it is headlined by an all-American battle with Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe. Yes, one man from the host nation is guaranteed to a participant in Sunday’s championship match. The other semifinal matchup features #1 seed Alexander Zverev and unseeded Karen Khachanov. Let's get into the US Open best bets to be made in the men's semifinals on Day 13 in New York City.
US Open Best Bet: Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe Over 39.5 games (-110)
The four previous showdowns between Shelton and Tiafoe have been competitive. Only one has ended in straight sets, and even that one featured 23 games -- a 7-6(2), 6-4 decision in Shelton's favor last summer in Washington, D.C. They have split a pair of US Open meetings, with Tiafoe most recently getting the job done 4-6, 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-4, 6-3 in 2024.
Neither player is any stranger to long matches this fortnight. Only one of Shelton's matches has been a straight-setter and he is coming off a five-hour marathon against Carlos Alcaraz that ended at 3:33 am ET. Tiafoe battled through a five-setter against Martin Damm in the opening round and another one against Alex Michelsen on Tuesday. This is arguably the biggest match of each player's career; getting across the finish line won't be easy for whoever is in the lead.
US Open Best Bet: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov Over 5.5 service breaks (-125)
Both men have been breaking serve at a strong rate throughout this event. Zverev has broken his opponents 26 times through five matches; Khachanov has broken 32 times. There is no denying that each man has dropped his own serve only eight times so far. But it should be noted that Zverev has played three consecutive straight-set matches; Khachanov has played three straight-set matches and only one five-setter. A four-setter (or longer) on Friday would obviously give both guys more chances to break.
In nine previous head-to-head encounters, Zverev has broken 24 times and Khachanov 18. Those may seem like unspectacular totals, but keep in mind that a whopping seven of their nine matchups have lasted only two sets. This one will obviously have three sets at minimum and will probably have at least four.
