French Open Predictions: Tennis Picks & Best Bets for Day Eleven – Felix Auger-Aliassime aims for the semis
Quarterfinal action at the French Open continues on Wednesday, and it would be an understatement to say that the lineup is a surprising one. The 4 men bidding for the last 2 semifinal spots are Felix Auger-Aliassime and Italians Flavio Cobolli, Matteo Berrettini and Matteo Arnaldi. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka is joined on the order of play by Diana Shnaider, Anna Kalinskaya and Maja Chwalinska. Let’s take a look at the French Open best bets to make on the Day 11 schedule, featuring Auger-Aliassime vs Cobolli and Berrettini vs Arnaldi.
French Open best bet: Felix Auger-Aliassime ML over Flavio Cobolli (-110)
Auger-Aliassime has taken care of business -- so far -- in his quarter of the draw as the #4 seed. Since outlasting Daniel Altmaier in a fifth-set tiebreaker, FAA has raised his level to win his last three matches more convincingly -- although Brandon Nakashima in round three presented another tough test. Cobolli's one scare en route to the last eight came on Monday against Zachary Svajda, an underdog American who pushed the Italian to a fourth-set tiebreaker.
This is Auger-Aliassime's fifth Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance and he is bidding for his third Slam semi. It is Cobolli's second slam quarter and he has never reached the semis. Experience advantage: the Canadian. This is priced evenly, probably because Cobolli leads the head-to-head series 2-0, but those matchups came two years ago on hard courts (Acapulco and Montreal). Auger-Aliassime is not really a matchup-dependent player, anyway. When he is confident in his own game, he has proven to be among the best players in the world -- which he did in 2025 and is doing so again this year.
French Open prediction: Matteo Arnaldi vs Matteo Berrettini Over 38.5 games (-110)
Five-set thrillers have been the story on the men's side throughout this fortnight. It would be no surprise if another one takes place on Wednesday between two Italians who are no strangers to going the distance. Both Arnaldi and Berrettini played fifth-set tiebreakers in the third round. Arnaldi followed that up with another 5-set marathon against Frances Tiafoe on Monday night. The world #104 has to be running on fumes, but perhaps he has at least 1 match -- or most of 1 match -- still left in his legs.
Strictly from a tennis standpoint, I have been more impressed with Arnaldi -- and he can cope with Berrettini's power on clay. But Berrettini has the physical edge. The likely result is a long, back-and-forth contest that begins in Arnaldi's favor before Berrettini gains the upper hand.
