French Open Predictions: Tennis Picks & Best Bets for Day Thirteen – Alexander Zverev takes another step

It’s men’s semifinals day at the French Open on Friday. A wild tournament from the very start has seen every top 13 player in the world other than Alexander Zverev crash out (or not play at all in the cases of Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper). Zverev has become the clear title favorite and will continue his bid against Jakub Mensik. Meanwhile, Friday’s other semifinal is an all-Italian showdown between Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi. 

Let’s take a look at the best French Open bets to make on the Day 13 schedule.    

Alexander Zverev -1.5 sets over Jakub Mensik (-185)  

The roadblock for Zverev is not getting to a Grand Slam final -- it's succeeding once there. He has already advanced to three slam finals, so we know we can handle the pressure of this stage. Obviously the 29-year-old German has never been this big of a title favorite, but he already was heading into the quarterfinals and he did not have any trouble with Rafael Jodar. If Zverev was going to choke prior to the championship match, he probably already would have. Whereas Mensik is playing in his first major semifinal, Zverev is playing in his 11th. The 20-year-old Czech took a set off Zverev in their only previous matchup earlier this spring on the red clay of Madrid, but Mensik's only victorious set required a tiebreaker and Zverev rolled through the other two sets. It's also worth noting that Mensik has battled through two five-setters this fortnight and did not look entirely 100 percent against Joao Fonseca on Tuesday. Zverev has mostly clobbered his opponents, so the world No. 3 is well rested and in peak physical shape. He should have a significant edge in the first semifinal. 

Flavio Cobolli -1.5 sets over Matteo Arnaldi (-120)  

This is another matchup in which the favorite has a sizable advantage in both experience and the physicality department. Cobolli is younger than his fellow Italian (24 to 25), but he had already reached a major quarterfinal prior to this fortnight (lost to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2025). Arnaldi had never reached a slam quarter, had been to the fourth round only twice, and had advanced out of the third round just three times. The world No. 104 endured a pair of five-setters on his way to the last four. He outlasted Frances Tiafoe 7-6(5), 6-7(5), 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-4 after overcoming Raphael Collignon 6-4, 6-7(5), 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(10-4). A second-set retirement from compatriot Matteo Berrettini on Wednesday will help, but one relatively short match doesn't fix everything in the middle of a marathon. Arnaldi will still be feeling some momental and physical wear and tear. Cobolli, on the other hand, has dropped just two sets this entire fortnight. The world No. 14 beat Arnaldi in four routine sets last year at Roland Garros (second round). This rematch might not even get past a third set.