Wimbledon Men's Singles Semifinals Best Bets, Picks & Predictions, feat. Sinner vs Djokovic & Fery vs Zverev
After the women took center stage on Thursday (headlined by a wild match between Karolina Muchova and Coco Gauff), it is men’s semifinals day at Wimbledon. The marquee matchup features Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic, while British wild card Arthur Fery will try to continue his improbable run against reigning French Open champion Alexander Zverev. Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on Day 12 at the All-England Club, targeting both men's singles semifinals.
Wimbledon best bet: Novak Djokovic over 1.5 service breaks vs Jannik Sinner (-125)
Sinner has dropped serve at least once in 4 of his 5 matches so far at Wimbledon. Shintaro Mochizuki failed to break the Italian in Round 4, but the Japanese qualifier got a look at 5 break-point opportunities. If Nuno Borges and Jenson Brooksby can break Sinner twice apiece in only 3 sets of tennis, you have to figure that Djokovic can break Sinner at least twice in what will probably be nothing short of a 4-set match (if you think the 24-time Grand Slam champion is going to get destroyed quickly in this match, you probably have another thing coming for you).
Djokovic’s break totals through 5 rounds at the All-England Club are 3, 4, 3, 5 and 2. Despite breaking Felix Auger-Aliassime just twice in their quarterfinal thriller, Djokovic generated 13 break-point chances. The Serb broke Sinner 3 times when he beat the world #1 earlier this year in the Australian Open semis, and that was when Sinner was playing – and serving – at a much higher level than he is at the moment.
Wimbledon best bet: Alexander Zverev vs Arthur Fery over 18.5 total aces (-120)
Zverev has delivered 78 aces through 5 rounds at the All-England Club, averaging 0.88 per service game. Based on that number, he could get close to this 18.5 quota all by himself, even if this match is a short one (as is expected). However, don’t discount Fery from contributing to the tally. The 23-year-old is averaging more than 6 aces per match during the Championships. Additionally, neither guy does a particularly elite job of getting a racket on opponents’ serves. Over the past 52 weeks, Zverev has been getting aced on 8.0 percent of his return points. The world #3 has been aced 31 times in his last 2 matches in London. Fery checks in at just 5’9’’ (and that’s probably generous), so it is tough for him to get a racket on well-placed serves. He has been aced 55 times in his last 4 matches.
