College Football Best Bets: Saturday, November 7, 2026

Week 10 of the college football season is exactly what we dream of during the dog days of summer. This slate is absolutely loaded with not one, not two, not three but seven ranked matchups, with one of them even kicking off at 10:00 AM local time in Salt Lake City. Not to mention the influential nightcap in the Mountain West between Wyoming and UNLV, the current second and third-place teams in the conference behind New Mexico.

Ahead of the biggest Saturday of the year, I have three best bets to share. Let’s get into the picks, and don’t forget our CFB predictions for tips and analysis on every FBS matchup this weekend and through the postseason.

CFB Week 10 Best Bet: Missouri Tigers +3 over Texas Longhorns (-115)

Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to pk. 

The Texas Longhorns are not a team I’m interested in laying points with very often, especially on the road. Since Arch Manning took over as the Longhorn quarterback, Texas hasn’t covered a single point spread in a true road game – that includes games at Ohio State, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Georgia and Tennessee. Missouri, on the other hand, has been a pretty good home underdog under Eli Drinkwitz, save last year when the Tigers suffered from sub-par quarterback play. Austin Simmons has been everything but that this season in Como, sitting fourth in the SEC in passing yards and touchdowns with the second-best pressure-to-sack rate and best aDOT in the conference. Behind him, the Tigers have one of the best turnover margins in the country, sitting seventh nationally in giveaways per game and 12th in takeaways per game. 

The ‘Horns just haven’t had it offensively, and they aren’t forcing enough turnovers to make up for it, ranking 94th in turnover margin. They’re outside the top 50 in scoring and outside the top 85 in total offense this season, and over the last six weeks, they are 118th or worse in PPA per play, success rate, scoring opportunities and havoc allowed outside of garbage time. To make matters worse, RB Hollywood Smothers and OT Trevor Goosby are done for the year and their top two wide receivers in Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman are questionable, as well as multiple key defensive starters – including Colin Simmons and Graceson Littleton. Even if some of them play, how effective will they be? Considering Texas’ struggles on the road, their offensive inefficiencies and the injury situation, it’s Tigers all the way for me in this one.  

Check out our Texas vs Missouri prediction in this SEC clash

CFB Week 10 Best Bet: Utah Utes -4 over BYU Cougars (-110)

Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5. 

This line opened around -6 or -6.5 and has dropped a couple points to the current number of -4 in some spots, which is a buy point for me on the hosting Utes. The 10:00 AM local start time isn’t ideal for a home-field atmosphere, but I still question this line movement. BYU RB LJ Martin, stud DB Evan Johnson and fourth-leading receiver in TE Roger Saleapaga II are listed as doubtful, and even if they play, I’m not certain they’ll be effective. That leaves a lot of pressure on the arm and legs of Bear Bachmeier to make the scoring output of a well-oiled Utah machine led by QB Devon Dampier and RB Wayshawn Parker. 

Since upsetting Notre Dame at home, BYU hasn’t been all that impressive. They were outgained pretty handily by UCF the following week in a double overtime loss, losing the time of possession battle and allowing the Knights to convert more than half their third downs. Last week, the Cougars were almost outgained again, this time at home against a mediocre Arizona State team. The Cougars averaged just 1.6 yards per attempt in that game and converted on only three of their 13 third-down attempts. Could they have been looking ahead to their in-state rival? Sure, but it doesn’t exactly instill much confidence in their ability to match points against a Utah offense that’s 12th in scoring and yards per play this season, as well as 14th in PPA per play and eighth in success rate outside of garbage time over the last six weeks. The Utes are elite on standard downs and elite on the ground, and I expect them to use advantages to control the game, win and cover.

For a pick on the total, here's our BYU vs Utah prediction for the Holy War in Salt Lake City

CFB Week 10 Best Bet: Ohio State Buckeyes -7.5 vs Oregon Ducks (-110)

Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to -8. 

The kneejerk reaction to what we saw last week is to buy into Oregon with Dylan Raiola at quarterback and sell the Buckeyes with Luke Fahey at quarterback, especially when you’re getting more than a touchdown with the Ducks, but I’m not going to fall into that four-letter T-word. Even with a three-point downgrade on the Buckeyes due to Julian Sayin’s absence, I still believe this number is a couple points shy for Ohio State, offering a decent buy-low opportunity on the Buckeyes. 

It’s hard to trust Raiola under center against good defenses, and while the Buckeyes showed some vulnerability out at USC last week, being at home in the Horseshoe with the Ducks being the ones coming across the country is a completely different situation. The Buckeyes are eighth in yards per play allowed and 13th in scoring, so they’re absolutely still a top-flight defense, and Raiola has looked bad against much worse outfits. It was only two weeks ago that Oregon went to Illinois and lost 21-10 to a backup quarterback – a game in which Raiola had two turnover-worthy plays. 

Since Week 4, Oregon ranks outside the top 125 in havoc allowed, stuff rate allowed and line yards, so how are we to trust this offensive line to protect its quarterback? Raiola has not been particularly good against pressure in his career, which is not very settling this week. Against the Oregon offensive line, the Ohio State front should be able to disrupt Raiola and the Ducks. 

Fahey will continue to improve, and he has the most quarterback-friendly companion at his disposal in Jeremiah Smith, who caught 10 passes on 14 targets against USC. Oregon’s secondary is outside the top 70 in PPA per pass, outside the top 90 in pass explosiveness and outside the top 115 on passing downs PPA over the last six weeks. Good luck limiting Smith with those numbers, no matter who is throwing him the ball.

We have a pick on the total in our Oregon vs Ohio State prediction