College Football Parlay Picks: Saturday, September 12

We have an awesome Week 2 of college football ahead of us, from headline matchups including Oklahoma vs Michigan and Ohio State vs Texas all the way down to the Group of Six level with Memphis vs Boise State. With the action right around the corner, it’s time for our weekly Saturday parlay.

Like last week, I have put my favorite selections on the upcoming slate together into a massive +1218 parlay -- with odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook. Unlike last week, I’m looking for a better outcome than the unfortunate one-leg loss we sustained thanks to a dropped fourth-quarter pass in the end zone from Oregon. With a new week comes a new opportunity - let’s snag a win this week and all will be forgotten about last week’s unlucky outcome.

Also, don’t forget about our college football picks for more tips and analysis on every FBS matchup this season.

Oklahoma ML (-210)

Duke +6.5 (-130)

Kentucky +10.5 (-115)

FAU ML (+170)

Week 2 CFB Parlay odds: +1218

CFB Parlay Pick: Oklahoma Sooners ML over Michigan Wolverines (-210)

No matter the venue, I need to see progress from Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood before I trust him to cover as an underdog against any above-average Power Four defense, much less beat one of what I consider the 10 best stop-units in the country under head coach Brent Venables -- and that might even be putting it conservatively. The Sooners lost a few studs in the offseason, but they’ve replenished with home-grown talent and a couple transfers in backup roles, including a former Wolverine in linebacker Cole Sullivan. The cupboard is by no means barren in Norman; as many as seven of Oklahoma’s top 10 defenders in snap count returned this year, including two of their top three in sacks and three of their top six in tackles. Moreover, six of the Sooners top 10 in PFF’s run defense grade return, which should pair very nicely with a secondary that returns three starters and two high-level backups that are primed for breakout years with a full allotment of minutes. 

While I agree a team is never as bad as it shows in one singular football game, the Wolverines failed to surpass 300 yards against an overmatched MAC opponent at home, committing nine penalties in the process while turning the ball over three times. To make matters worse, they had the ball for less than 20 minutes of game time, gained four fewer first downs than WMU and were obviously very fortunate to avoid an upset. Now, they have to welcome an opponent with a defense in a different stratosphere than the Broncos – one that held Underwood to just 9-of-24 last year in Norman. With his five turnover-worthy plays last week, Underwood has failed to show much progress as a passer, and he doesn’t have a good track record against top-tier defenses -- just use his 63-yard performance against Ohio State and three-interception performance against Texas last year for more proof. Michigan went 0-3 straight up against OU, OSU and Texas, for what it's worth.

Check out our full Oklahoma vs Michigan prediction

CFB Parlay Pick: Duke Blue Devils +6.5 over Illinois Fighting Illini (-130)

Duke beat Tulane in an ugly game last week, but at least there were positives to take away from their performance. Nate Sheppard was unstoppable with the ball in his hands, gaining 227 yards on 35 carries with two scores, while the Blue Devil defense wreaked havoc on the Green Wave for four full quarters – boasting better than a 25% havoc rate. For comparison, Illinois generated a 16.2% havoc rate against one of Tulane’s conference opponents with a fraction of the pedigree as the Wave. We know for certain that Manny Diaz’s defenses are always aggressive -- almost too aggressive at some points -- so I like this havoc rate to continue on the road this week against an Illinois offensive line that returns just one starter and blocks for a transfer quarterback in Katin Houser that has 40 turnover-worthy plays in his last three seasons – two at ECU and one at Michigan State. For reference, he had 14 turnover-worthy plays and just four big-time throws in his time under center previously in the Big Ten, and we often saw middling or even bad performances against the best defenses on his schedule while he was a starter for the Pirates rather than good ones. In short, behind a line with four new pieces, it’s hard to trust Houser against Diaz’s defense. 

The Blue Devils didn’t show much upside offensively last week outside of Sheppard, but that might not be much of an issue here. Illinois’ defense was even worse against an overmatched UAB team. In fact, despite winning by 19 points, the Illini were out-gained by the Blazers 413-332, surrendered 10 third downs on 19 attempts and allowed UAB to control the clock for just over 41 minutes. Not to mention that the Blazers were also 3-of-4 on fourth downs, averaged over a half-yard more of line yards per rush and were stuffed way less than you’d expect against a Big Ten defense. In other words, UAB held up in the trenches against the Illinois front -- which is less than ideal for the Illini with a run-dominant Duke team coming to town. Blue Devils keep it close with a chance to win at the end.

See the analysis for our Duke vs Illinois pick on the side

CFB Parlay Pick: Kentucky Wildcats +10.5 over Alabama Crimson Tide (-115)

Kalen DeBoer is an excellent coach, but he’s had issues on the road. Since taking over in Tuscaloosa, the Tide are 4-6 ATS in 10 true road games and 1-3 ATS in four neutral-site games, and it wasn’t too much better when he was in Seattle. Going one step further, DeBoer’s Alabama lost twice on the road as a double-digit favorite in 2024 (Vanderbilt, Oklahoma), as well as once in their bowl game against Michigan before losing in embarrassing fashion at Florida State in Week 1 last year. They almost did it again in Columbia against South Carolina but were lucky to escape with the win there thanks to some fourth-quarter mistakes by the Gamecocks.

Lexington should be rocking for this one being that this is the first big game for new head coach Will Stein, who has familiarity coaching against DeBoer from their time in the former version of the Pac-12. Alabama Freshman quarterback Keelon Russell looked great at home against a bad East Carolina team last week, but are we sure that will carry over in his first conference game, which just so happens to be on the road? I realize Kentucky is under new leadership this year, but this program has always shown an ability to compete at home in get-up spots, and this is exactly that.

See our full Alabama vs Kentucky prediction

CFB Parlay Pick: FAU Owls ML over Navy Midshipmen (+170)

These teams met last year in what amounted to a 42-32 Navy win at home. The Midshipmen gained 503 yards in that contest, 397 of which came on the ground to the tune of 7.1 yards per carry. However, quarterback and team leader Blake Horvath, running backs Alex Tecza and Eli Heidenreich and wide receiver Brandon Chatman are no longer on the team this year – which is essentially all the production from that Navy win. FAU’s situation couldn’t be further from Navy’s. The Owls have the most continuity among the Group of Six ranks, including being the only program to retain all its top coaches and its quarterback. In a revenge spot at home so early in the season against a team that hasn’t executed on the road yet, that experience should make an impact. 

There’s some continuity in Navy’s secondary, but the Midshipmen have to be better in coverage and in the tackling department. They were poor in both areas last year, and I’m expecting more of the same this year, which is likely to be an issue this week against an offense that had the most pass attempts in the country last year. FAU wide receiver Easton Messer should have a big day here.

This line feels a bit generous based on previous versions of Navy rather than the current matchup at hand. Until I see this Navy offense perform to the level of last year’s bunch, I’m not inclined to lay points on the road in a conference matchup, especially given their defensive liabilities. In this particular matchup, for my money, FAU’s offense has both the higher floor and ceiling. I have the Owls in an upset.

Read the entire analysis for our Navy vs Florida Atlantic prediction

College football Week 2 picks

Check out our expert college football predictions for the biggest games in Week 2 below:

• Ohio State vs Texas prediction
• Oklahoma vs Michigan prediction
• Oregon vs Oklahoma State prediction
• Arizona State vs Texas A&M prediction
• Penn State vs Temple prediction
• Howard vs Indiana prediction
• Western Kentucky vs Georgia prediction
• Alabama vs Kentucky prediction
• Duke vs Illinois prediction
• Rice vs Notre Dame prediction
• Eastern Michigan vs Michigan State prediction
• Memphis vs Boise State prediction
• Texas Tech vs Oregon State prediction
• Iowa State vs Iowa prediction
• Arkansas vs Utah prediction
• Louisiana vs USC prediction