College Football Week 10 Player Props: Best Bets & Picks

The anxiously-awaited college football Week 10 is here, with Saturday’s main card right around the corner. At this point, you’ve already dug into the traditional markets like spreads, money lines and totals, so now it’s time to dive into the college football player props. Here are my three favorite prop bets on Saturday’s card; don’t forget to check out our CFB predictions if you haven’t done so already.

CFB Week 10 Player Prop: Jeremiah Smith (OSU) over 95.5 receiving yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 99.5

Prior to Julian Sayin’s injury, Jeremiah Smith’s receiving yards prop was consistently triple digits, but we’re getting a discount on him now that Luke Fahey is the starting quarterback. It makes sense, Fahey isn’t the same passer as Sayin, but he still threw the ball Smith’s way 14 times last week. Smith caught 10 of those passes, yet he didn’t crack 90 yards and failed to surpass his line of 93.5. Now a week after falling short of that mark, the number increased to the mid 90s. Oddsmakers expect an uptick in Smith’s yardage after last week; it’s hard not to given how frequently he was thrown the ball. Per PFF, the average depth of his targets was way down last week compared to the rest of the season, probably to give Fahey a security blanket, but after taking that loss, the Buckeyes are going to need Smith to run routes down the field and get back into the three-plus yards per route run range that we saw from him earlier in the season. 

At some point, the Buckeyes will have to test opponents deep with Fahey, and Smith figures to be the beneficiary of that more often than not. Even if they don’t go deep as frequently as we’d like, Smith has elite post-catch playmaking ability that could easily pave the way to 100+ receiving yards against a Ducks secondary that just gave up 146 yards on five receptions to Northwestern’s Griffin Wilde last week. 

Here are my three college football best bets for Saturday's behemoth Week 10 slate

CFB Week 10 Player Prop: Jabree Coleman (SC) over 42.5 rushing yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 49.5. 

The injury to Matt Fuller would be a lot worse for the Gamecocks if they didn’t have six-foot-one, 215-pound freshman running back Jabree Coleman to take over. Coleman doesn’t have a ton of experience, but he’s an absolute nightmare to bring down, breaking 19 tackles – which is 11th-most in the SEC – on just 44 attempts. That means he’s shedding defenders on almost every other carry, which is insane to think about. For reference, Fuller forced 28 tackles on 94 carries before injury (PFF). 

This number is too low for the expected workload and game script. The Gamecocks are seven point favorites at home, which means they should be playing from ahead and able to utilize the ground game for a good portion of this contest. Coleman averages 6.5 yards per carry, and because he rushed for 62 yards on 13 carries last week, I expect the workload to grow a bit this Saturday – making this very attainable number against a Texas A&M defense that PFF ranks outside the top 50 in tackling. Moreover, the Aggies are outside the top 50 in PPA per rush and rush explosiveness outside of garbage time since Week 4, and they have been run all over by multiple SEC running backs this season. Look for it to happen again in Columbia this week. 

Get our Texas A&M vs South Carolina prediction

CFB Week 10 Player Prop: Darian Mensah (MIA) under 29.5 pass attempts (+100)

Odds available at bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to -115. 

Malachi Toney’s absence is obviously a huge blow to Miami’s offense. He was the focal point of the entire attack, catching nearly half of Darian Mensah’s yards while garnering almost 50 more targets than anyone else on the team. Without him, the offensive game plan likely changes tremendously. It wouldn’t shock me to see Miami go run-heavy in this one, limiting Mensah’s passing attempts along the way. With Javian Mallory and Mark Fletcher Jr. in the backfield, the Hurricanes certainly have the horses to lean into the ground game. 

Miami already operated at a slow pace, sitting 111th nationally, and that’s likely to get even slower without Toney on the field. In tandem with Notre Dame’s 120th mark in pace, this figures to be a methodical game plan on both sides of the ball. Less possessions means less plays, which, in theory, means less pass attempts for Miami’s quarterback. Miami’s three-and-out rate will likely spike a bit too without their stud playmaker, especially early, which all works in our favor when it comes to this prop. The biggest worry is the expectation that Miami will be playing from behind, increasing the need for passing, but the pace of this game and the potential inability for Miami to extend drives helps negate that a bit. 

You can find all of our CFB predictions for this massive Week 10 slate, including expert picks and analysis for every FBS matchup this week and beyond