College Football Week 11 Opening Lines, Odds & Best Bets: Utes hungover in Tucson

With only three weeks remaining in the college football regular season, the CFP race is really starting to heat up. Lines are becoming sharper and sharper as the weeks go by, so it’s essential to lock in the best numbers as early as possible, in order to put yourself in the best position to succeed. That’s the whole reason we do this article – to give you an early look at the market and attack the numbers where you see value.

Numbers mattered last week in regards to our bet on Notre Dame. We had no idea Malachi Toney would be out at the time of publishing, but locking in that -4.5 early was huge because the line closed -7.5 and Notre Dame only won by seven. With Week 11 on the horizon, it’s time to take a look at the early market and cap it off with a best bet. I’m going for my sixth straight early-week winner!

Don't forget to find our CFB predictions for tips and analysis on the entire Week 11 card

College Football Week 11 Early Lines and Odds

Odds available at bet365 at the time of publishing. 

Tuesday, November 10

• Bowling Green -5.5 (-112) vs Kent State; Total 45.5 (Under -117)
• Western Michigan -14.5 (-108) @ Akron; Total 47.5 (Over -114)
• Ohio -1.5 (-109) @ Miami (OH); Total 48.5 (Under -113)

Wednesday, November 11

• Buffalo -2.5 (-115) @ Ball State; Total 51.5 (Under -115)
• Central Michigan -18.5 (-105) vs Sacramento State; Total 43.5 (Over -112)
• Toledo -14.5 (-106) vs UMass; Total 52.5 (-110)

Thursday, November 12

• Memphis -5.5 (-108) @ USF; Total 48.5 (-110)
• Louisiana -10.5 (-113) @ ULM; Total 49.5 (Under -119)

Friday, November 13

• Pitt -3.5 (-107) vs Florida State; Total 53.5 (Over -112)
• UCLA -10.5 (-107) vs Illinois; Total 46.5 (Under -114)
• Houston -10.5 (-106) @ Colorado; Total 51.5 (Under -115)

Saturday, November 14

• Auburn -2.5 (-120) @ Mississippi State; Total 50.5 (Under -113)
• Iowa State -2.5 (-113) vs Cincinnati; Total 61.5 (Under -116)
• Miami -13.5 (-110) vs Duke; Total 54.5 (Under -113)
• James Madison -3.5 (-108) @ UConn; Total 57.5 (Over -113)
• Ohio State -11.5 (-112) vs Northwestern; Total 47.5 (Under -114)
• Syracuse -2.5 (-116) @ NC State; Total 55.5 (Under -120)
• Wake Forest -1.5 (-110) @ SMU; Total 61.5 (Under -111)
• Wisconsin -8.5 (-110) @ Maryland; Total 43.5 (-110)
• Clemson -13.5 (-110) vs Georgia Tech; Total 47.5 (Over -115)
• Nebraska -13.6 (-116) @ Rutgers; Total 53.5 (Under -115)
• Alabama -17.5 (-115) @ Vanderbilt; Total 52.5 (Under -114)
• TCU -9.5 (-113) vs Kansas State; Total 46.5 (Under -114)
• Rice -2.5 (-121) vs Tulane; Total 48.5 (Under -113)
• Delaware -5.5 (-110) vs FIU; Total 54.5 (Under -113)
• Oregon -10.5 (-109) vs Michigan; Total 40.5 (Under -120)
• Tennessee -2.5 (-111) @ Texas A&M; Total 42.5 (Over -112)
• UCF -2.5 (-120) vs Arizona State; Total 48.5 (-110)
• BYU -7.5 (-110) vs Baylor; Total 48.5 (Over -114)
• Notre Dame -30.5 (-106) vs Boston College; Total 52.5 (Under -111)
• Virginia -12.5 (-110) vs Cal; Total 47.5 (-110)
• Tulsa -5.5 (-110) vs FAU; Total 74.5 (Under -111)
• Georgia Southern -5.5 (-109) @ Georgia State; Total 56.5 (-110)
• Jacksonville State -7.5 (-101) @ Western Kentucky; Total 53.5 (Under -111)
• Liberty -21.5 (-112) vs MTSU; Total 53.5 (Under -111)
• Georgia -14.5 (-101) vs Missouri; Total 47.5 (Under -116)
• Indiana -7.5 (-105) vs USC; Total 49.5 (Over -111)
• Texas State -8.5 (-117) vs Fresno State; Total 60.5 (Over -111)
• Ole Miss -2.5 (-103) @ Oklahoma; Total 49.5 (-110)
• Washington -4.5 (-106) @ Michigan State; Total 43.5 (Under -113)
• West Virginia -2.5 (-12) vs Kansas; Total 66.5 (Over -111)
• Boise State -10.5 (-111) vs Oregon State; Total 66.5 (-110)
• Kentucky -3.5 (+101) vs Florida; Total 51.5 (Over -115)
• Louisville -3.5 (+101) @ North Carolina; Total 60.5 (Over -112)
• South Alabama -2.5 (-112) vs Troy; Total 55.5 (Over -114)
• LSU -3.5 (-109) vs Texas; Total 46.5 (Under -114)
• New Mexico -14.5 (-109) vs UNLV; Total 46.5 (Over -112)
• Utah -2.5 (-110) @ Arizona; Total 53.5 (Over -117)
• South Carolina -7.5 (-109) @ Arkansas; Total 51.5 (-110)
• UTSA -1.5 (-105) vs North Texas; Total 77.5 (-110)
• Oklahoma State -3.5 (-106) vs Texas Tech; Total 72.5 (Over -111)
• Utah State -1.5 (-109) @ San Diego State; Total 41.5 (Under -116)
• Washington State -9.5 (-112) vs Colorado State; Total 67.5 (-110)
• North Dakota State -6.5 (-114) @ Hawaii; Total 38.5 (-110)

CFB Week 11 Early Best Bet: Arizona Wildcats +2.5 over Utah Utes (-110)

Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to PK (+100)

Advanced metrics and statistical analysis are obviously part of handicapping any sport, including college football. However, with this sport, situational influence is also a massive part of the handicap, and that’s why we’re taking Arizona at home against Utah this week.

The Utes are off a massively emotional win, 28-20, over their in-state rival BYU, extending their undefeated streak to nine games and likely rising into the #2 spot in Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings. However, it didn’t come without flaws. Utah was outgained by 61 yards, and their two turnovers were overshadowed by BYU’s four, including a crucial goal-line interception and another red-zone interception by Bear Bachmeier. The Cougars got what they wanted for the most part, controlling the time of possession while averaging 7.6 yards per pass and 4.3 yards per rush. They also converted eight of their 15 third downs. Those four picks did them in, as did 11 penalties compared to Utah’s four. 

While Utah’s undefeated bid continues, there are obvious holes in their armor. Going into last week, they were outside the top 40 in PPA per pass allowed and 132nd in pass explosiveness allowed, and then Bachmeier threw for 272 yards and had multiple throws of 30+ yards. The Utes make it hard to complete passes; they have the second-best opposing completion percentage (51.3%), and they’re 12th in yards per attempt, but when passes are completed, they tend to go for big gains. For reference, the Utes are 102nd in pass yards allowed per game, and they have surrendered 15 passes of 30+ yards, which is also outside the top 100 (CFBStats).

Noah Fifita is not a quarterback leaky defenses want to see. He has the third-highest completion percentage in the country, while he’s top-10 in passing yards and top-15 in yards per attempt. His 21 touchdowns are good for ninth nationally, and his 22 passes of 30+ yards are good for third in the country. No matter how you cut it, Fifita is a top-10 quarterback in college football, and Utah hasn’t exactly beaten the best quarterbacks on their schedule convincingly. If you gave me truth serum, I’d probably say Utah was fortunate to win both the BYU and Houston games, and those were at home. This game is on the road and on the heels of Utah’s biggest win of the season. This is just a massive flat spot, to which oddsmakers are keen. Because of that, I’m uncertain we will see a +3, so I will happily jump on +2.5 and cheer for Arizona outright.