MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Friday, August 7, inc. Guardians vs White Sox & Rays vs Mariners

The weekend is here, and we have a beautiful new set of MLB series to dive into, including Braves vs Yankees, Athletics vs Red Sox, and Dodgers vs Diamondbacks. In addition, we also have an Apple TV doubleheader with Orioles vs Rangers and Rays vs Mariners. With playoff ramifications intensifying, each game becomes more and more crucial for reaching the postseason. Let's dive in and discuss my 3 MLB best bets for Friday, August 7, and don't forget to check out our MLB predictions for more tips and picks on EVERY game throughout the season.

MLB Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML over Chicago White Sox (-137)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -145.

This is a massive weekend series between the top 2 clubs in the American League Central. The Twins and Tigers are still within reach of the divisional lead, but I believe Cleveland and Chicago will be the 2 most dangerous clubs come playoff time. 

Parker Messick is the scheduled starter for Cleveland Friday as he looks to make his 23rd start of the season. Messick has served as the ace of this Guardians pitching staff, posting a 2.57 ERA and 3.09 xERA through his first 129.2 innings pitched. Cleveland is 12-10 in his starts entering this series, and they should likely have an even better record with the way he has pitched. I will have more analysis on Messick in my next best bet.

Noah Schultz is the scheduled starter for the White Sox. The 6-foot-10 lefty presents opposing clubs with a unique look from the mound, but his results have not been very good this season. Schultz, just 23 years old, is still a developing arm with a long way to go in order to reach his potential. He has pitched better of late, allowing just 1 run across 5 innings against Tampa Bay in his last outing, but his profile is still not one I trust. Schultz enters Friday with a 5.82 ERA and 5.66 xERA. He has a poor K/BB ratio and shaky batted ball metrics as well. Look for Cleveland to narrow the divisional lead.

MLB Best Bet: Parker Messick (CLE) under 2.5 earned runs allowed in Guardians vs White Sox (-136)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

Messick is having a fantastic season. Through 23 starts, the southpaw hurler ranks 66th percentile in K%, 67th percentile in BB%, 86th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and 88th percentile in barrel rate. He has also already shut down this White Sox offense twice this season. On June 23, Messick tossed 7.2 innings of 2-run ball, issuing just 1 free pass while racking up 10 strikeouts. He followed that performance up with 5 more innings of 1-run ball against them on the 4th of July. Having a month in between the 2nd and 3rd matchup should help him as well.

Chicago enters Friday ranking 26th in wOBA with a 76 wRC+ against lefties in the last 30 days. They have power in their lineup but not a ton of guys built to get on base with regularity against lefties. Messick has been tough on batters standing on either side of the plate, but he actually has reverse splits -- performing better against right-handed bats.

Get our full Guardians vs White Sox prediction

MLB Best Bet: Drew Rasmussen (TB) over 17.5 outs in Rays vs Mariners (-130)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145.

Drew Rasmussen has been one of the best starting options in Major League Baseball this season. The 31-year-old right-hander has stepped up and served as the true ace of this Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff in 2026. Rasmussen has made 21 starts spanning 117.1 innings pitched, surpassing this 17.5 outs recorded mark in 12 of his first 21 starts. This is true despite a short leash to start the year that held him under this mark in 4 of his first 6 attempts. 

Rasmussen is an efficient arm. He ranks 99th percentile this season with a miniscule 4.3% walk rate issued. He is able to clean up messes on the base paths by his 68th-percentile ground-ball rate and his 75th-percentile strikeout clip. The righty has been effective against both lefty and righty batters.

Rasmussen will pitch in a pitcher-friendly park Friday against a Mariners lineup that is slumping against right-handed arms. In the last 30 days, Seattle sits 29th in wOBA with an 84 wRC+. That is not the form you want to see with Rasmussen coming to town, and I expect an efficient start for him that lasts at least 6 innings.

Read our full Rays vs Mariners prediction for tonight's MLB matchup